id
stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
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| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
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| close_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-iEDsrhsl3YDTvbOchSrc
|
Will Mike Johnson visit Taiwan as Speaker?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-29T23:58:22
|
2025-01-06T21:59:00
|
2025-01-22T11:35:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jKdV786P2QkuFPShP0fU
|
Will Israel declare they have successfully eradicated Hamas by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-29T20:11:34
|
2024-12-31T21:38:44
|
2024-12-31T21:38:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F3zALtNAahfXouAUDMKE
|
Will the Jury on SBF's case return a same-day verdict?
|
Resolves Yes if the Jury return a verdict on the same day they're sent away to deliberate.
Resolves No if otherwise.
Expiry date is set in the future as I'm not sure at this point when they'll be sent away.
|
2023-10-29T19:45:14
|
2023-11-02T16:49:36
|
2023-11-02T16:49:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hyu4S4Vx7kzTOHW8fwr0
|
Will Max Verstappen will win the Las Vegas GP?
|
Based on the formal reaslt by the FIA
|
2023-10-29T19:08:27
|
2023-11-19T00:09:30
|
2023-11-19T00:09:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XPGLI6c51jVmZpkGxNGN
|
Will Destiny come back for a second stream today (29th) (EST)
|
CLOSES AT MIDNIGHT EST
He said he's taking Mel to the airport and streaming again after
[image]
|
2023-10-29T17:59:43
|
2023-10-29T22:01:00
|
2023-10-29T22:01:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SsY3S5jTP6yJ7ofgO5oN
|
Will Niki Haley win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?
|
Current polls https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html
|
2023-10-29T16:45:50
|
2024-07-14T15:41:00
|
2024-08-11T11:02:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ownhgHD9Jg8bA2Sbs78f
|
Will Nick Bostrom cease to be director of the Future of Humanity Institute before the end of 2024?
|
Nick Bostrom has been the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) at Oxford since 2005.
Will Nick Bostrom cease to be director of FHI (for any reason) before the end of 2024?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-nick-bostrom-cease-to-be-direc-d59dd763b9ac)
|
2023-10-29T12:26:19
|
2024-04-17T10:37:01
|
2024-04-17T10:37:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3N4CuPML4vRL2IrCedvP
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #13 LSU beat #8 Alabama?
|
2023-11-04 at 7:45 PM ET in Tuscaloosa, AL. Line: Alabama -7.
|
2023-10-29T12:18:49
|
2023-11-04T20:45:00
|
2023-11-04T21:11:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jFrjPubh7N0AqO69bCGu
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #14 Missouri beat #1 Georgia?
|
2023-11-04 at 3:30 PM ET in Athens, GA. Line: Georgia -15.5.
|
2023-10-29T12:04:26
|
2023-11-04T15:58:36
|
2023-11-04T15:58:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1Dn83lLqRjyUSnQRyyTT
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Nebraska beat Michigan State?
|
2023-11-04 at 12 PM ET in East Lansing, MI
|
2023-10-29T11:59:47
|
2023-11-04T12:28:25
|
2023-11-04T12:28:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IJY4yIMG7TQkzqqDH3yj
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Texas A&M beat #11 Ole Miss?
|
2023-11-04 at 12 PM ET in Oxford, MS. Line: Ole Miss -5.
|
2023-10-29T11:59:13
|
2023-11-04T12:46:42
|
2023-11-04T12:46:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qSXnksSjulCknJDKwc0Y
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Kansas State defeat Texas?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, November 4, 2023 - 11:00 AM CDT
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - Austin, Texas
Week 10 Big 12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-houston-defeat-bay
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-byu-defeat-west-vi
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucf-defeat-cincinn
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-kansas-defeat-iowa
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-kansas-state-defea-0b55c2b794c2 (this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oklahoma-defeat-ok
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-tcu-defeat-texas-t
|
2023-10-29T11:44:35
|
2023-11-04T12:53:23
|
2023-11-04T12:53:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LPH8JAeKFVlEZGOGBw0T
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Oregon State defeat Colorado?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, November 4, 2023 - 8:00 PM MDT
Folsom Field - Boulder, Colorado
|
2023-10-29T11:40:35
|
2023-11-04T23:00:00
|
2023-11-04T23:47:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sPTPqRNNKkwLGyfzeWtR
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Washington defeat USC?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, November 4, 2023 - 4:30 PM PDT
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, California
|
2023-10-29T11:36:49
|
2023-11-04T20:30:00
|
2023-11-04T20:30:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gQTGQp5hCAcfyi0v1bnQ
|
[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 12, 2024?
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 12, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and June 12, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.
|
2023-10-29T08:47:46
|
2024-06-15T10:57:50
|
2024-06-15T10:57:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CUk5ggyicsFFXRJXuTwh
|
Will Putin be dead within one year from today?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-29T08:36:19
|
2024-10-29T20:59:00
|
2024-10-30T03:36:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l1Pn2LF1s40Hg0w3TbDf
|
Will Destiny reach 735k subscribers in November?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
Other November subscriber markets:
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-740k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-2d6e4cbbd729
@/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-4c6f6c4e7787
|
2023-10-29T05:18:46
|
2023-12-01T01:00:00
|
2023-12-01T02:58:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5ha1b6wN2wt5GCKHX2Nc
|
Will Destiny reach 740k subscribers in November?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
Other November subscriber markets:
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-735k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-2d6e4cbbd729
@/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-4c6f6c4e7787
|
2023-10-29T04:41:45
|
2023-12-01T01:00:00
|
2023-12-01T02:58:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iSa0YnuIZ4kzcDdKYcfp
|
Will it become impossible to leave Lebanon by plane in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if there is a day on which there are no ordinary commercial flights leaving Lebanon, that an ordinary person would be able to catch to leave the country.
Resolves NO if commercial flights continue until the end of 2023.
One full calendar day with no flights is both necessary and sufficient for the market to resolve. The market will still resolve even if flights subsequently resume.
If flights are still operating but tickets are all sold out, that will not be sufficient for the market to resolve.
If flights are operating but tickets were never available to ordinary people in the first place because they are restricted to certain types of people only, then the market will resolve to the first date on which there are no flights carrying ordinary people who bought unrestricted tickets.
To determine whether flights are operating and under what conditions, I will rely on media reports from reputable international media sources, or other reliable sources such as flight radars and other flight tracking websites, provided there is reason to believe they are accurate and relevant.
Relevant timezone for calendar dates is local time in Lebanon.
|
2023-10-29T02:48:40
|
2023-12-31T16:22:53
|
2023-12-31T16:22:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cZBoYuQHBSjRKJkuXusw
|
Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2024?
|
This question resolves YES if the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is less than 90 points in every month from November 2023 to December 2024.
(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1aPKf&width=660&height=270)Consumer sentiment was regularly above 90 points from December 2014 until February 2020. The most recent figure for October was 63.8 points.
Will consumer sentiment remain below pre-pandemic levels every month until the end of 2024?
See also:
[markets]
|
2023-10-29T01:22:55
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:23:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yZaFKYtpOzf3LHBxtXCi
|
Will OpenAI run a Superbowl ad?
|
Either them or an investor; the ad must mention them by name or display their logo.
Only covering the US broadcast tv Superbowl
Resolves after the next superbowl.
|
2023-10-28T23:51:33
|
2024-02-11T23:59:00
|
2024-02-13T14:43:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XlWovXqIsqNjCcVtdc2r
|
NFL 🏈 - Week 9 - Will Dallas Cowboys win their NFL game against Philadelphia Eagles on 11/5?
|
Resolved based on the game score on 11/5.
|
2023-10-28T21:16:29
|
2023-11-05T15:59:00
|
2023-11-05T16:42:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ttlG7ILNlcOOBNlhlanD
|
NFL 🏈 - Week9 -- Miami Dolphins will win their game against Kansas City Chiefs on 11/5
|
Will be resolved on 11/5 based on Game Score
|
2023-10-28T21:13:50
|
2023-11-05T10:00:00
|
2023-11-05T10:52:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4hWfH6zOorNJXhHTGCxs
|
Will the federal government be shut down anytime during the month of January 2024?
|
Market resolves if for any day in January 2024 the US federal government was shut down.
|
2023-10-28T17:15:53
|
2024-02-01T20:59:00
|
2024-02-02T05:20:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZAPD3b3WnBoWZiGE72YZ
|
Will Israel release more than 250 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages held by Hamas?
|
Hamas has announced that they will release the Israeli hostages in the Gaza strip in exchange for all Palestinian prisoners in Israel. In April 2022 there were more than 4000 Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.
This question resolves to yes if more than 250 Palestinians are released as part of a deal to secure the hostages in Gaza by the end of the year.
|
2023-10-28T17:03:32
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:15:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WLwFZ3geLB3APplZeaqz
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Oklahoma defeat Oklahoma State?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, November 4, 2023 - 2:30 PM CDT
Boone Pickens Stadium - Stillwater, Oklahoma
Week 10 Big 12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-houston-defeat-bay
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-byu-defeat-west-vi
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucf-defeat-cincinn
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-kansas-defeat-iowa
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-kansas-state-defea-0b55c2b794c2
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oklahoma-defeat-ok (this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-tcu-defeat-texas-t
|
2023-10-28T16:46:21
|
2023-11-04T16:05:16
|
2023-11-04T16:05:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fPooFtDDIkLSIpgNwufN
|
Will Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks ⚾️ 10/30/2023?
|
Game Oct 30 @AZ 5:03PM Pacific Time
|
2023-10-28T15:24:14
|
2023-10-30T23:41:56
|
2023-10-30T23:41:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PSz8sgLQJr6PQVY47eAA
|
Will a new Destiny video reach 500k views in November 2023?
|
Resolves yes if a video posted in November on Destiny's main channel reaches 500k views before this market closes
Livestreams and Youtube shorts don't count.
|
2023-10-28T13:08:40
|
2023-11-25T00:05:03
|
2023-11-25T00:05:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vE2PR90RIjohKWVlUb8J
|
Will Trump be convicted of a felony prior to the GOP Convention on July 18th, 2024?
|
If Trump is not convicted prior to the convention then this poll will resolve NO. If Trump is convicted of only a misdemeanor and no felonies the this poll will resolve NO.
|
2023-10-28T11:40:58
|
2024-05-30T14:42:57
|
2024-05-30T14:42:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dr81iXBNm490Htz4Jdl8
|
Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominee remain the nominee through Election Day?
|
This market will resolve YES if the Democratic nominee for President, as declared at the DNC, remains the nominee through Election Day, 2024. If not, resolves NO. If the DNC is unable to declare a nominee at the DNC and still cannot do so for a month thereafter, this market resolves N/A.
|
2023-10-28T09:22:08
|
2024-11-05T15:57:24
|
2024-11-05T15:57:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lpNKu0xydfGmV5hbqr4M
|
Will the Detroit Lions beat the Las Vegas Raiders in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Lions win
No - Raiders win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-10-28T08:25:56
|
2023-10-30T20:18:36
|
2023-10-30T20:18:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ua4EZlROcJrWk1VNmLdn
|
Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Chicago Bears in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Chargers win
No - Bears win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-10-28T08:23:37
|
2023-10-29T20:19:47
|
2023-10-29T20:19:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UvzZiaFtJuiKdklDDcqn
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - 49ers win
No - Bengals win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-10-28T08:22:38
|
2023-10-29T16:19:50
|
2023-10-29T16:20:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2hq0mtS0kr8EHO0cXDah
|
Will the Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Broncos win
No - Chiefs win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-10-28T08:19:00
|
2023-10-29T16:26:12
|
2023-10-29T16:26:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yDO25ZWcw2F8xQ0iJwPR
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Cleveland Browns in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Seahawks win
No - Browns win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-10-28T08:17:56
|
2023-10-29T16:07:49
|
2023-10-29T16:08:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mfy4tHyLbHNqiOe3U3R2
|
Will Tesla Vehicle production q4 2023 exceed 500,000?
|
Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends
last five quarters:
Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 365923
Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 439701
Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 440808
Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 479700
Q3 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 430488
The equivilent press release for Q4 2023 will be used but if not available may wait for Q3 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included.
Background
Prices have been reduced presumably to stimulate demand, but is production also being throttled according to demand? Elon Musk seems to have suggested it is pretty much full pace production and they can generate enough demand by cutting prices. Freemont and Shanghai may well be at or near production capacity limits but Berlin and Texas are ramping up recently reaching 5000 per week production rates. The latest official guidance is
"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."
Having produced 1350996 in the first three quarters 1.8m requires production of 449k.
However, at 2022 q4 earnings there were some suggestions that 2 million may not be impossible. 1.8 million is only 450k per quarter and they have managed near 440k in 2 quarters to March 2023 and near 480k in Q2 2023 so does practically no growth or even reductions with two factories ramping up make any sense? So one line of reasoning queried whether the 1.8 million figure was a well sandbagged number or whether demand causing production to be throttled back?
Above may have failed to account for other explanations: Q2 Earning call suggested there would be production shutdowns but it isn't clear to what extent these were for upgrading production speed compared to other things like retool for Highland upgrade. While there were shutdowns, did this fully account for lower production or were there also speed reduction?
[image]So is there some throttling of production or is there some other explanation?
|
2023-10-28T06:52:37
|
2024-01-02T05:57:25
|
2024-01-02T05:58:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-57915rTOELU9QSQdpjyL
|
Will there be a successful coup in Africa in 2024?
|
Resolves in accordance with this Wikipedia page or its successor. Must be a successful coup, not a "coup attempt" or "plot" or similar.
|
2023-10-27T23:36:58
|
2025-01-07T17:16:45
|
2025-01-07T17:16:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1p0eg87cDbGoDbls2Xyd
|
Will Sundar Pichai cease to be CEO of Alphabet before the end of 2024?
|
This question YES if Sundar Pichai ceases to be CEO of Alphabet before the end of 2024.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-sundar-pichai-cease-to-be-ceo-11676da6092c)
|
2023-10-27T20:13:17
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:15:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CDsOkq6snydjXzGAppC4
|
Sam Bankman-Fried will be found guilty on all counts
|
In the current first trial
Unlike other markets this one resolves as soon as the verdict is returned
|
2023-10-27T20:04:56
|
2023-11-02T22:43:13
|
2023-11-02T22:43:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6PsRJC3nYz72ReLyBTst
|
Will Nikki Haley be the Republican Vice President candidate for the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-27T19:19:08
|
2024-07-15T14:13:49
|
2024-07-15T14:13:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I6h9535EJuvPbiIY4vE8
|
Will Israel conduct strikes in Yemen in 2023?
|
Resolves YES upon confirmation from the IDF that strikes of any kind (e.g. cruise missile strikes) were conducted on at least on Yemeni target (located in Yemen).
If there is no official confirmation but a strong OSINT consensus that Israel conducted strikes in Yemen, this will also resolve YES. Should this be the case I will consult with this market's share holders to determine what consitutes a credible OSINT consensus.
|
2023-10-27T18:16:01
|
2023-12-31T16:34:12
|
2023-12-31T16:34:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pXRlmhfMdGfMGhta2J1p
|
Will the temperature on any day in November 2023 be lower than the temperature on that day in November 2022?
|
This question will resolve according to the data on this site. If the daily surface air temperature on any day in November is strictly less than the 2022 temperature on that day, this will resolve to Yes, otherwise, on December 1 it will resolve to No.
|
2023-10-27T16:19:46
|
2023-12-01T13:06:39
|
2023-12-01T13:06:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XyHvpNVGLH25x6zoJJof
|
Will Rep. Dean Phillips win the US 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-27T14:42:21
|
2024-11-10T14:26:55
|
2024-11-10T14:26:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YuJQGIK0d4nsfvXzI4lZ
|
Will Trump say YES he wants his January 6 trial in Washington DC televised?
|
This is not a market about whether the trial WILL BE televised.
Judge Chutkan has asked Donald Trump to take a position.
Trump says YES, he doesn't object to the trial being televised, then this resolves YES.
Trump says NO, he doesn't want the trial televisied, it resolves NO.
If there is an ambiguous or no answer, then this will resolve N/A. Trump's answer must be very clear to get a resolution.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1717969875140751534
|
2023-10-27T14:24:52
|
2023-11-11T15:59:38
|
2023-11-11T15:59:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bu3sjmpdJYM28sI8VPVR
|
Will any of Trump’s federal criminal trials be televised?
|
Resolves YES if a trial judge allows cameras to show the Trump trial to the public, not merely closed circuit TV for press.
Motion pending in the Court in DC.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-asks-trump-if-he-wants-his-federal-election-trial-televised-2023-10-27/
[link preview]
|
2023-10-27T14:09:59
|
2024-11-25T11:21:36
|
2024-11-25T11:21:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nkFSzyTP2jecb1QDJttE
|
Will Arizona Diamondbacks beat Texas Rangers ⚾️ 10/28/2023?
|
Game Oct 28 @TEX 7:03PM Central Time
|
2023-10-27T13:46:07
|
2023-10-28T23:41:15
|
2023-10-28T23:41:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ROyLIj2Adq8Lk9Rw5hCM
|
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $180 before $160?
|
Last price: 2023-11-07 $181.82 (day low 178.97)
(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) after market creation (2023-10-27) during which the price stays above $180 (YES) or below $160 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:
Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $180
Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $160
Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $170 then quoted prices next day would be $85 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2).
|
2023-10-27T13:29:40
|
2023-11-08T13:05:59
|
2023-11-08T13:05:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xDKQLWWSh2nMYreBCxM5
|
Pakistan will enter the semi finals of the World Cup Cricket 2023 being played in India
|
Resolved when the SemiFinal Slate for the World Cup Cricket is finalized on the Official Cricket World Cup Website
|
2023-10-27T13:20:57
|
2023-11-11T07:42:03
|
2023-11-11T07:42:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4d0bhdC3DWvxHFRcuHdf
|
X (twitter) will replace your bank account by the end of 2024.
|
[image]
|
2023-10-27T12:24:10
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:30:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WJRzHwvTc6kYBD5gcYpY
|
Will Donald Trump lie under oath while testifying in NY State civil trial?
|
Trump has been called by the state of New York on November 6. This is going to be epic.
|
2023-10-27T11:47:49
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-20T10:59:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YRi2LDw8Ia0Mcy5MoLHk
|
NCAA🏈 : Will Oregon State Beat Washington in the NCAA Football game to be played on 11/18?
|
Will be resolved on 11/18 based on the game results. Poll will close prior to game end to prevent last minute betting
|
2023-10-27T11:11:45
|
2023-11-18T19:00:00
|
2023-11-18T20:04:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jOLihUB5MtH1Ekl4BK00
|
[November Start] Will the S&P 500 close higher on November 1 than it closed on October 31?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of November (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2500
2 1500
3 1000
Good luck forecasting!
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-10-27T09:24:44
|
2023-11-01T11:00:00
|
2023-11-01T13:18:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1PtGaFQRkdQk3yvM1Pdf
|
Will Apple Inc. have the highest market cap at the end of 2023?
|
At time of posting, Apple has the highest market cap. Will this be true when the market closes on the final trading day of 2023?
You can also bet on the 2024 market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-apple-inc-have-the-highest-mar)
|
2023-10-27T07:54:49
|
2023-12-29T13:59:00
|
2023-12-29T22:12:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oj7pLLkUViXhiXK1kxm8
|
Will Apple Inc. have the highest market cap at the end of 2024?
|
At time of posting, Apple has the highest market cap. Will this be true when the market closes on the final trading day of 2024?
You can also bet on other Apple market cap markets:
@/mattyb/will-apple-aapl-remain-the-largest
@/mattyb/what-companies-will-have-the-5-high
@/mattyb/will-apple-remain-the-largest-compa
|
2023-10-27T07:51:46
|
2024-12-31T06:59:00
|
2024-12-31T14:40:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B2kniCQdqueTeQOpmzhk
|
Will the SEC approve any Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024?
|
A Bitcoin ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, would be a financial product that lets people invest in Bitcoin without having to buy and store the actual digital currency. Instead, they'd be buying shares of the ETF, much like they might buy shares of a stock or another fund. A "spot" ETF, specifically, would be based on the current, or "spot," price of Bitcoin, rather than future prices.
If the SEC were to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF, it would be a big deal for several reasons. Firstly, it would signal a certain level of trust and acceptance of the bitcoin world by a major regulatory body. Secondly, it could make it easier and potentially more appealing for everyday investors to get involved in Bitcoin, as they wouldn't need to deal with the complexities of owning and storing the cryptocurrency themselves.
By today, several financial institutions (BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, and WisdomTree....) have applied to SEC for having their Bitcoin ETF publicly listed on American exchanges. None so far has been accepted.
Will it happen in 2024?
|
2023-10-27T06:48:24
|
2024-01-13T17:20:52
|
2024-01-13T17:20:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BYW1ECzk6vavQb9rSUDu
|
Will Dean Phillips poll at more than 20% in the 538 national poll aggregate?
|
Resolves YES if Dean Phillips polls at 20% or more in 538 national poll aggregate for the Democratic Presidential Primary at any point before the last dem primary on June 4th.
|
2023-10-27T06:45:24
|
2024-06-05T20:59:00
|
2024-06-06T18:18:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g2xae67MCj0eJexnZmwR
|
[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by July 31, 2024?
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by July 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and July 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.
|
2023-10-27T06:31:02
|
2024-08-08T07:00:00
|
2024-08-31T00:07:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Ld6odvpsYau6fTEUZOM
|
Will X.com be considered a valid alternative to a bank account at the end of 2024?
|
According to the article linked below, Musk plans to, by EOY 2024, roll out financial features to X.com such that "If it involves money. It’ll be on our platform. Money or securities or whatever. So, it’s not just like send $20 to my friend. I’m talking about, like, you won’t need a bank account.”
This market resolves YES if the following criteria are met:
1) X.com has all of the following features or equivalent features:
1.1) Debit card
1.2) User-to-user financial transfers
1.3) Loans
2) If all the criteria in 1) are met, I will open a Manifold poll at market closure with the question "Do you believe X.com could entirely replace your bank account today with it's current feature set?" With answers YES and NO. This poll will run for two weeks. If this poll has a majority of YES answers at the point it closes, this market will resolve YES.
If X.com does not include all the features listed under 1) at market close, available to at least a majority of the US population (i.e. not a public beta or invitation-gated trial, not limited to a handful of states), or if the poll is receives majority NO responses, this market resolves NO.
[link preview]
|
2023-10-26T22:36:39
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T23:02:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IehPFUxvBljABnfAhHjp
|
Will Taylor Swift release all (Taylor's Version) albums by 2025?
|
So far, Taylor Swift has re-released Fearless, Red, Speak Now and 1989 as (Taylor's Versions). She still has not released Taylor Swift and Reputation. Will she do so by the end of 2024 (December 31, 2024, 11:59 ET)? Market will resolve to YES if so. If not, market will resolve as NO.
|
2023-10-26T22:24:00
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T18:26:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OKfOTMDK0daapg5ssLoi
|
Will the Boston Celtics go 10-0 to start the 2023-2024 NBA season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T21:18:53
|
2023-11-06T20:25:14
|
2023-11-06T20:25:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1SRjrIP6UU5XSXB8IyIt
|
Will a tropical or subtropical storm be named Vince in October 2023?
|
Vince is the next name on the Atlantic list (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season).
|
2023-10-26T20:16:25
|
2023-10-31T23:59:00
|
2023-11-01T08:58:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0FLyaQxMnNC6cprmkz14
|
Will the Lewiston, Maine mass shooter be captured alive?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T18:34:08
|
2023-10-27T21:36:17
|
2023-10-27T21:36:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oxGrGCLJ2DdkpoJ15jfX
|
Will the Bucks win 54 or more games in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T18:26:21
|
2024-04-05T03:32:50
|
2024-04-05T03:32:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YUgocqpkyJiJIpor8eP2
|
Will House Speaker Mike Johnson face a motion to vacate the speakership before the November general election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T17:09:06
|
2024-03-22T09:10:11
|
2024-03-22T09:10:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UUkPeTD8KcBgOYmQqNgH
|
Will Maine’s spree killer suspect at-large Robert Card be located before midnight (Eastern) Friday, October 27, 2023.
|
Question considers only how hard it is for an offender to stay disappeared when an increasingly tech-equipped law enforcement community is incentivized to find them. No disrespect intended to direct or indirect victims, no position taken on whether offender is located dead or alive.
|
2023-10-26T14:55:03
|
2023-10-27T19:27:37
|
2023-10-27T19:27:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TpwZ2V7v3flsY8pcC8S2
|
Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?
|
Any amount of time in a jail cell counts.
|
2023-10-26T14:53:47
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:06:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zyurMkXBxQqUfjMabgYM
|
Will more than 1.5mm Gazans be internally displaced at the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T14:15:37
|
2023-12-31T13:37:56
|
2023-12-31T13:37:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-miZWEttmwWE4CRYUdVr6
|
Will Ukraine lose control of Avdiivka by 2024-03-01
|
this one: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Avdiivka,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine
[link preview]Resolves to my subjective judgement whether they have lost it or not on
2024-03-01. I won't trade in this market.
If it is close, It matters when they lose control of it, not when information comes out that they have lost control of it, so I may extend the close time to allow more information to come out.
|
2023-10-26T13:56:22
|
2024-02-18T11:52:55
|
2024-02-18T11:52:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V0U768shIT2qpy9pO5KC
|
Will US Q4 2023 real GDP growth be above 2%
|
Will be settled based on the Q4 advanced estimate here https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
I will link forecasts when they crop up.
|
2023-10-26T12:04:58
|
2024-01-25T05:36:06
|
2024-01-25T05:36:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A1Dfr9NMkcboMHAeP2c1
|
Will we get a release date for the Vision Pro at the upcoming Apple event
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T10:36:22
|
2023-10-30T20:59:00
|
2023-10-31T17:46:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fX7ajEDCAu2nADI0WKrp
|
Will Apple unveil a new Magic Mouse in 2023?
|
Apple must say it will be for sale whenever but announce it in an official apple event, website, etc.
I wont bet to resolve in spirit of question.
|
2023-10-26T09:52:20
|
2024-01-01T10:20:40
|
2024-01-01T10:20:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OLhsq5XibLRtxWlRK2ar
|
Will the new speaker of the house, Mike Johnson, reach an agreement with the Democrats to fund the government by Nov 17?
|
Congress enacted a continuing resolution on September 30th that funds the government for the first seven weeks of FY 2024. That resolution ends on November 17 and unless a new resolution is passed, the government will shut down.
Will rep Mike Johnson be able to lead the House of Representatives and work with the Democrats to pass a new bill to fund the government?
Edit 1: This will resolve to Yes if a new continuing resolution or a longer term bill is passed by the November 17th deadline.
|
2023-10-26T09:02:08
|
2023-11-17T08:11:13
|
2023-11-17T08:11:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z9M0E5tBZwsdrQNXC84f
|
Will Benjamin Netanyahu continue to lead Israel by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T06:03:35
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-11T08:48:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qb9rMotAWLVWRCZZqtDO
|
Trump has broken a gag order twice. Will he do it again in same Manhattan court?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-26T04:56:59
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-05-01T03:34:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xjVQXaVZ4B1rDdQMtyWA
|
Will the US government shut down at midnight on Nov. 17, 2023?
|
Congress passed a stopgap spending bill on October 1 that funds the federal government through Nov. 17, 2023. The House elected hard right republican Mike Johnson following 3 weeks of paralysis.
|
2023-10-25T21:00:20
|
2023-11-18T23:59:00
|
2023-11-19T02:05:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YwwuGi4CpcUmp32eWuSd
|
Will the Lewiston, Maine, mass shooter be captured (dead or alive) in the next 24 hours?
|
https://apnews.com/article/lewiston-maine-shootings-49da6d06a8b5a15d3b619b3927bc33ff
[link preview]
|
2023-10-25T20:43:00
|
2023-10-26T20:59:00
|
2023-10-26T21:09:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EGLbQTue4s0PJ54O8FGM
|
Will a US representative say in 2023 that they regret voting for Mike Johnson?
|
I'm looking for any statement from a US representative who voted for Mike Johnson (basically, a Republican), along the lines of "I voted for Johnson for Speaker, but I wish I hadn't." If they criticize Johnson but don't specifically allude to the fact that they voted for him, it doesn't count.
I can imagine this being subjective, but I will do my best to resolve according to the spirit of the reps' comments.
I will resolve NO at the end of the year if I haven't seen any evidence to the contrary - so feel free to post links in the comments below.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-10-25T20:21:18
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:12:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vDpD1uniCw1pImJTKeIT
|
Will West Ham beat Everton during regular time on Sun, Oct 29, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ West Ham vs Everton
📅 Date: Sunday, October 29, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
West Ham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Both teams have an equal number of goals
Everton has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-10-25T17:04:30
|
2023-10-29T09:00:00
|
2023-10-30T06:04:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0uLLfDUyAQjSHwIR7ddH
|
Will the Speaker of the House be ousted again before the next Congress begins?
|
At any point before the 118th Congress concludes, will there be another successful 'motion to vacate', removing the Speaker of the House?
Presumably this would be removing Mike Johnson, but if other circumstances change the Speaker without a motion to vacate (e.g. illness or resignation), this will resolve yes only if a motion to vacate later ensues and succeeds.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - The market will now be resolved on January 20th. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2023-10-25T15:46:39
|
2025-01-10T11:39:45
|
2025-01-10T11:39:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OvoyapJ1mIHlnOyXTrdy
|
Will Mike Johnson still be speaker at Christmas?
|
As the new speaker of the house, Mike Johnson will have to make deals to fund the government and there will still be a contingent of Republicans that try to sabotage government funding. So I think he will be voted out by Christmas.
|
2023-10-25T14:19:29
|
2023-12-25T10:19:32
|
2023-12-25T10:19:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5QPOJz5JrSG1w702ljfu
|
Will Shohei Ohtani become the highest paid player in baseball this offseason?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-25T13:05:47
|
2023-12-15T20:03:34
|
2023-12-15T20:03:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IpEGTBh1SvcXxxJRDKVP
|
Will Trump be penalized in anyway (fined, jailed, etc) for violating any GAG order a third time.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-25T13:04:20
|
2023-11-24T20:59:00
|
2023-11-24T21:43:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KGr2lugkHiUkdh4KAWEV
|
Will Bill Belichick retire after the 2023-2024 season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-25T12:41:13
|
2024-09-05T21:59:00
|
2024-09-07T10:50:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c6Y1o0IKBzPlyW3vEusR
|
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2024?
|
Shorter term version of https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-0d23ab3f131e?r=SXNhYWNLaW5n
[link preview]
|
2023-10-25T12:35:08
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:24:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sdK8l0Tin5oW5yCDQM5M
|
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-25T12:00:48
|
2024-01-08T11:05:13
|
2024-01-08T11:05:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-315CXfnEtUNgE7rkwFxm
|
Will the US be at war with Iran by the end of 2024?
|
Public acknowledgement by both sides, major US government figures referring to a state of active war between the US and Iran, multiple media outlets referring to a US-Iran war as something that is actively occuring in a sustained manner, or other similar events will resolve this question "yes". Will not resolve "yes" for drum-beating propaganda, only for active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict.
|
2023-10-25T11:39:51
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T04:49:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iS1EUcFxnjfMutamZMYw
|
Will Representative George Santos still be a member of the House of Representatives on January 1, 2024?
|
Representative George Santos faces a number of felony indictments for Fraud, Money Laundering, Theft of Public Funds, and False Statements. Will he still be a member of the House of Representatives on January 1, 2024?
|
2023-10-25T11:37:20
|
2023-12-01T09:36:45
|
2023-12-01T09:36:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gvCxWR7PqUyQZx0pmdAQ
|
Will Mike Johnson last at least one year as US House Speaker?
|
Resolves Yes if Mike Johnson can last at least one full year as speaker of the US House of Representatives.
Resolves No if not.
|
2023-10-25T11:19:59
|
2024-10-25T22:59:00
|
2024-10-27T06:17:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sp8dcBbHsUIo4iVxeGYG
|
Will Mike Johnson be the last speaker of the 118th Congress?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-25T11:01:41
|
2025-01-03T09:56:45
|
2025-01-03T09:56:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pLXY41CSoK9ganQS8rAP
|
Will Taylor Swift get engaged to anyone by the end of 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-25T08:53:19
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T14:46:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UeqOFmKif5EiebB1pIYx
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 26 than it closed on October 25?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2500
2 1750
3 1250
4 750
5 500
Good luck forecasting!
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-10-25T08:37:18
|
2023-10-26T11:00:00
|
2023-10-26T15:03:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6au5KfSOYKnCUcYWadC0
|
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI on October 30?
|
Shorter term version of @/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order
This is on whether am executive order will be announced and released that day.
Version for all of Octorber: @/Ernie/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-135d1b50792d
Version for all of November: @/StrayClimb/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-8923eba995e9
|
2023-10-25T07:53:34
|
2023-10-30T16:22:12
|
2023-10-30T16:22:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3Tvis8UQOf2mtP8KllRB
|
Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Bills win
No - Buccaneers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-10-25T07:24:37
|
2023-10-26T20:22:27
|
2023-10-26T20:23:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KwdajDSLXSiBw4vThyLu
|
Will SpaceX's launch license for a second Starship–Superheavy flight be granted by the FAA before November 16th?
|
Resolves YES on the FAA issuing a launch license, before November 16th, that would authorise SpaceX's planned second integrated flight test of the Starship–Superheavy vehicle, launching from Boca Chica, Texas on a near-orbital flight.
The existing license that authorised the first flight test can be found on the FAA's licenses page:
https://explore.dot.gov/t/FAA/views/CommercialSpaceTransportation/LaunchLicenses?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y
as license "VOL 23-129".
It is expected that the FAA will modify the existing license in order to extend its applicability to the second flight. The existing license authorises the first flight only using the following language:
4. Authorization: In accordance with the representations in the Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. application as of the date of this license, and any amendments to the license application or waivers approved by the FAA, in writing, Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. is authorized to conduct launch consisting of:
a. Pre-flight ground operations:
i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle.
ii. At SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas.
b. Flight Operations:
i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle.
ii. From SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas.
iii. To Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean locations specified in its application.
iv. For the first flight only, unless this license is modified to remove this term.
It is expected that the final term iv restricting authorisation to the first flight only will be removed. However, any license authorising a second Starship–Superheavy flight launching from Boca Chica to the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean will cause this market to resolve YES.
This market will resolve YES on such a modified license appearing on the FAA's licenses page, or on a new license document appearing there that would authorise the second flight, or on reliable media reports that the FAA has granted such a license, even if they have yet to update their webpage (this happened previously). Such evidence must appear before November 16th, even if we later discover the license was issued in some sense before November 16th, if this is not public information conveyed by reliable sources before November 16th, this market will resolve NO.
Arbitrary restrictions contained within such a license still count for the purposes of this market - such as if a license is granted but does not authorise a flight until next year.
It does not matter whether there are other regulatory requirements SpaceX also need in order to launch, in addition to a launch license from the FAA. This market resolves only on an FAA license, or NO on November 16th if none is issued.
The relevant timezone for "before November 16th" is local time in Texas.
|
2023-10-25T03:50:47
|
2023-11-15T13:17:08
|
2023-11-15T13:17:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cx7sNypOz3E12v7JrdsP
|
Will Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana be elected the next Speaker of the House?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-24T21:04:16
|
2023-10-25T12:30:59
|
2023-10-25T12:30:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hLmTsjXIhcbKSuumGscj
|
Will Arizona Diamondbacks beat Texas Rangers ⚾️ 10/27/2023?
|
Game Oct 27 @TEX 7:07PM Central Time
|
2023-10-24T20:23:44
|
2023-10-27T23:42:31
|
2023-10-27T23:42:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ev4uHZZGkNeo8D4wFYA2
|
Will Jimmy Carter make it through 1 year of hospice care?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-24T18:17:00
|
2024-02-17T21:56:31
|
2024-02-17T21:56:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JiooDUuZeuCPhXqcMbnN
|
Will Apple announce M3 chip this month (October 2023)?
|
If they announce chip with the name "M3" this month, resolves to YES.
Otherwise resolves NO.
|
2023-10-24T17:43:31
|
2023-10-30T17:07:51
|
2023-10-30T17:07:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l3OkJT4zSjsh0hZ54slS
|
Will "Killers of the Flower Moon" win the 2024 Best Picture Oscar?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-24T17:25:42
|
2024-03-10T21:30:00
|
2024-03-15T14:53:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EFPGzUsUQ2iftVbJPvzF
|
[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by September 18, 2024?
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by September 18, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and September 18, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.
|
2023-10-24T16:31:22
|
2024-09-18T15:48:04
|
2024-09-18T15:48:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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