id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-HbMKXrAvoRQ04Urk4oiO | Will RFK Jr. win at least 1 state elector in the US 2024 Presidential Election | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-24T15:35:48 | 2025-01-01T02:59:00 | 2025-01-02T21:39:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E4nos6E4ZVJczgbNoxej | Will Hideo Kojima appear on stage at The Game Awards 2023 | Will Hideo Kojima appear on stage either as a presenter or for an announcement at The Game Awards 2023. Pre-show does not count. Will resolve after The Game Awards 2023. | 2023-10-24T15:01:15 | 2023-12-07T19:11:41 | 2023-12-07T19:11:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NZThSlXo1yQ3P9UUpP95 | Will the next (4th) Republican nominee for Speaker of the House succeed? | Resolves:
YES if the next Republican nominee wins the election to become Speaker of the House,
NO if a different Republican nominee is selected afterwards,
whichever occurs first.
(The previous GOP nominees were Scalise, Jordan, and Emmer)
The Republican nominee is the person who wins the Republican nomination for... | 2023-10-24T14:45:27 | 2023-10-25T10:59:11 | 2023-10-25T10:59:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KfODlxqMupUnUlwIw8ak | Will "No Labels" put forward a 3rd party candidate for president in 2024? (6/30/24 deadline) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-24T14:03:39 | 2024-04-04T13:06:05 | 2024-04-04T13:06:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PHh8i40sA8vuLLBbP6eF | Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 25 than it closed on October 24? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.... | 2023-10-24T13:54:03 | 2023-10-25T11:00:00 | 2023-10-25T13:48:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r1Svk5XtvrtUIhMD31bQ | Will the 52nd Mersenne prime be discovered before the end of 2024? | This market will resolve as YES if a new Mersenne prime number is discovered before 1/1/2025.
Resolution source: https://www.mersenne.org/primes/ | 2023-10-24T12:44:10 | 2024-10-22T03:09:41 | 2024-10-22T03:09:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MvX567fcrQTqrJkB0zaH | Will a reliable source reveal the existence of a zettascale computer before 2025? | The advancement of computational power has been guided by various metrics, including FLOPS (Floating Point Operations per Second). Zettascale computing represents a major leap, equivalent to 10^21 FLOPS. It goes well beyond the current exascale systems, opening new horizons in fields like climate modeling, medical rese... | 2023-10-24T12:26:20 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-10T17:23:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hECysDWuSuIt4jo67Yfd | Will Israel launch a ground invasion of Gaza by Nov 23rd? | Resolution Criteria:
YES: The market will resolve as "YES" if:
A mainstream, internationally recognized news outlet (e.g., BBC, CNN, Reuters, Al Jazeera, etc.) reports that Israel has begun a "ground invasion", "massive ground operation", "large-scale ground incursion", or "invasion of Gaza".
The report is further v... | 2023-10-24T11:18:03 | 2023-11-02T09:15:22 | 2023-11-02T09:15:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FIpbw9o4LajVLqHuSH6U | Will Daniel Radcliffe endorse HPMOR before end of 2024? | Will Daniel Radcliffe, the actor who played Harry Potter in films made from the same source material as HPMOR, endorse HPMOR publicly at any point between October 24th, 2023 and January 1st 2025? | 2023-10-24T11:10:09 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:12:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ib4Fwu8BfjsOYhAvLf0e | Will there be a White Christmas in more than 30% of the United States on 12/25/23? | For reference, here are the last 6 years of data, over which the average is 34.4%:
2022: 53% White Christmas
2021: 26.6%
2020: 26.5%
2019: 28.1%
2018: 24.6%
2017: 49%
This will be determined by the results on NOAA's website: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
| 2023-10-24T09:06:42 | 2023-12-25T04:54:39 | 2023-12-25T04:54:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PWDXiBSuRLGRrV6XK9Yn | Will Guyana and Venezuela have a military conflict by the end of 2024? [Ṁ1,000 subsidy] | https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-sets-referendum-date-territory-dispute-with-guyana-2023-10-20/
Some rumors are circulating in the Brazilian media that Caracas is threatening to invade Guyana due to their long border dispute. This comes in a year where D.C. broke a deal for lifting sanctions in Caracas... | 2023-10-24T08:56:40 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-15T20:35:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z0oL9K2spmBCAT6QSS4u | Will geometry dash 2.2 release in October 2023? | Swedish time zone. On any platform counts (iOS, Android, or Steam)
I am betting on this market.
| 2023-10-24T08:47:50 | 2023-11-01T20:59:00 | 2023-11-03T08:05:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-buW2cb0dWVZOWeFO0cBR | Will the Price of Bitcoin be above 40.000,00$ before 1st Jan 2024? | I will resolve this according to: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
(Please note that if the price hits 40.000,00$ and goes back down it will be resolved as YES)
[link preview] | 2023-10-24T08:05:18 | 2023-12-03T17:40:50 | 2023-12-03T17:40:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-a9k4nbsJ610PB2jc1RLk | Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 again in 2023? | If after October 24, but still in 2023 (ET timezone), BTC price (Coingecko's 4hr average) goes below $30,000, this will resolve YES.
---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-10-24T07:48:04 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:00:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ERTWIN6UTuV0t7XV4bA0 | Will Tesla Cross $1tn valuation in 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-24T07:28:32 | 2024-11-12T17:29:51 | 2024-11-12T17:29:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kpOzHbD1BCxLpzdGPrhe | Will BOTH Bitcoin (BTC) be above $35,000 AND Ethereum (ETH) be above $1,850 at the end of October (11:59 PM EST, 10/31)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-24T04:28:34 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-11-01T03:20:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5fK3mLeCc7xGTYOAHlTC | Will Bitcoin reach $40k before the end of November? | Based on https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD | 2023-10-24T04:25:44 | 2023-11-30T14:59:00 | 2023-12-01T01:43:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5S05m03IpAuWAitM0Dr6 | Will nVidia cross $2tn valuation in 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-23T19:37:12 | 2024-02-23T19:27:17 | 2024-02-23T19:27:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6497RKjaUZWGSx1m92S6 | Will Barcelona beat Real Madrid? ⚽ El Clásico | Yes - Barcelona win
No - Real Madrid win / draw | 2023-10-23T19:18:06 | 2023-10-28T20:59:00 | 2023-10-29T08:55:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VjVxHinlLErGJQRlQxon | Will there be a McSpeaker in the 118th Congress? | The 118th Congress will run until January 3rd, 2025. This market resolves YES if at any point from now until the end of the 118th Congress, there is a "McSpeaker". I will not bet in this market to keep a level head about what a "McSpeaker" is. For instance, McCarthy or McHenry being elected speaker (not speaker pro ... | 2023-10-23T19:10:29 | 2025-01-03T09:53:54 | 2025-01-03T09:53:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FVdcbC0W1HcwP1TTRb2d | Will The Marvels (2023) make more money (globally) than The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snake (2023)? | Which movie will make a greater total at the Global Box Office? Resolves True if The Marvels (2023) makes more, and False if The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snake (2023) makes more money.
This question will resolve once both films have left theatres. | 2023-10-23T19:07:53 | 2024-01-04T23:25:07 | 2024-01-04T23:25:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pUwj0gv4xvFJZzeLwpCJ | MLB Playoffs 2023: Will the Texas Rangers win the World Series? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-23T18:51:09 | 2023-11-02T04:38:20 | 2023-11-02T04:38:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-57uUt6A6uo2D851haAAZ | Will the New Orleans Saints make it to the NFL 2024 Season Playoffs? | This market will resolve YES if the New Orleans Saints make it to at least round 1 of the NFL 2024 Season Playoffs.
The market will resolve to NO if they do not make the playoffs.
This market will close on December 24th, 2023. | 2023-10-23T18:41:10 | 2024-01-01T21:59:00 | 2024-01-07T16:16:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1oyOgUalmdGKjuqIrb4Z | Will Crystal Palace beat Tottenham during regular time on Fri, Oct 27, 2023? - Premier League | ⚽ Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
vs
📅 Date: Friday, October 27, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Crystal Palace has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular... | 2023-10-23T17:01:39 | 2023-10-27T15:00:00 | 2023-10-27T19:34:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xPdhn4oIeR5jd7rRFlmM | Will Intels CPU market share drop below 60% by the end of 2024? | Statista will be used to verify, which has quarterly datapoints. If it drops below 60% at any point before the end of 2024 this will resolve YES. | 2023-10-23T15:49:48 | 2024-12-18T11:35:11 | 2024-12-18T11:35:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rez5cKzMi6q6HZRXAb1z | Will the New York Jets destroy the New York Giants? 🏈 Battle of NY | YES if Jets win. NO if Giants win or tie. | 2023-10-23T14:13:25 | 2023-10-29T13:32:04 | 2023-10-29T13:32:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PemZ9rAuvdO7Zfq9L8nH | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $35k at the end of 2023? | To be resolved using https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2023-10-23T12:11:02 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:21:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wwaCqxuBnilDJ0RUj395 | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $32,958.30
This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible ... | 2023-10-23T11:22:51 | 2023-10-24T16:00:00 | 2023-10-24T18:02:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OObVOHdtfiGNa9H2y30O | Will Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW be part of the next German federal parliament? | Resolves YES if the BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) will have any seats in the Bundestag after the next federal election.
If the party is named something else it still resolves YES.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The next federal election refers to the expected snap election in February. | 2023-10-23T10:52:22 | 2025-02-23T09:00:00 | 2025-02-23T22:04:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iKTSUfFiJvHrk8ggxpqO | In the next six months, will there be a scandal appended with "-gate" reported in the national media? | This market will resolve YES if there is a political/sports/etc scandal that receives national attention that is appended with "-gate", alla Watergate / Bridgegate / Deflategate, etc... It has to receive attention of the Legacy media.
A sarcastic reference (such as on The Daily Show) or attention from only a non-mains... | 2023-10-23T10:34:02 | 2024-03-27T07:48:30 | 2024-03-27T07:48:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ttg1wf3Xm2p1H4u37Ls4 | Will any Palestinian-American be allowed to leave Gaza by November 30th? | https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/14/gaza-americans-rafah-border/
Talks disolved. Egypt wanted to send aid with the retrieval of an estimated 600 Palestinian-Americans in Gaza. They were planning within a short window but Israel axed it to not allow aid.
If ANY of these people are allowed to leave (meanin... | 2023-10-23T10:07:36 | 2023-11-02T12:41:11 | 2023-11-02T12:41:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7xyDOXScc64xbbHFzQva | Will bitcoin see a new ATH before 2025? | Before 1/1/2025 | 2023-10-23T09:59:35 | 2024-03-11T07:25:47 | 2024-03-11T07:25:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gylTz4gRArGf6rZSD0j8 | Will Mark Meadows accept a plea deal in Georgia indictment before January 1, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-23T08:23:40 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T03:27:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TmBhUO5ThTt3ZsWbKeoY | Will Texas Rangers beat Houston Astros ⚾️ 10/23/2023? | Game Oct 23 @HOU 7:03PM Central Time | 2023-10-23T06:48:26 | 2023-10-24T00:28:06 | 2023-10-24T00:28:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vIyeHRw2htg7WO071cQ7 | Will Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni be Prime Minister during all the 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-23T04:17:36 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-06T14:09:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JQyQYpso83mLCSaafaW4 | Will Hamas release more than 10 hostages during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-23T00:34:14 | 2023-11-24T20:41:40 | 2023-11-24T20:41:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-19uovIEodVjLdPqHQwyC | Will Lionel Messi win his 8th Ballon D’or in Oct 30, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-22T22:54:45 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-11-07T16:11:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L0VLEiUCHrqbQXUKSTAd | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the Mexican GP 2023? | To clarify: this market and all future f1 markets have been set with a later closing date so that if the FIA disqualifies or penalizes a driver AFTER the race this market can be unresolved. The market will still close after the race (unless there is a known investigation into this at the time). The later closing date i... | 2023-10-22T22:22:36 | 2023-10-29T15:09:00 | 2023-10-29T15:09:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mP9aUGQhgCWTRyD4HzrT | Will India win the 2023 Cricket World Cup? | Actually resolving this based on the results, not as a poll. | 2023-10-22T21:10:27 | 2023-11-19T08:45:18 | 2023-11-19T08:48:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SM6R9yunwydhVI9T23XL | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Verstappen, Hamilton, Norris and Leclerc all finish in the top 6 at the Mexican Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if the listed drivers all finish the race in P6 or higher.
Resolves N/A if any driver is unable to race on the day.
The market is not inclusive of post-race penalties, so will resolve YES still even if a penalty investigation is started after the race finishes, and then applied after the race that change... | 2023-10-22T20:57:07 | 2023-10-29T15:09:56 | 2023-10-29T15:09:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BRYb9EEn84FxDHncFlch | Will a chemical or biological weapon be used in Israel or Palestine before the end of 2023? [Ṁ600 Pool] | Resolves to Yes if any party uses a chemical or biological weapon on any target military or civilian, within Israel or Palestine, by the end of the year. If an attack is ambiguous, we will wait until both CNN and Al Jazeera declare that some kind of chemical attack took place, regardless of its perpetrators. If such we... | 2023-10-22T19:11:17 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:59:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GIhiobfvwvd051BrVT0r | Will Manchester City win the match against BSC Young Boys (UCL) on October 25, 2023? | [image]📅 Date: Wednesday, October 25, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
👍🏼This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Tottenham has more goals
👎🏼This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stop... | 2023-10-22T19:07:50 | 2023-10-25T15:00:00 | 2023-11-05T20:13:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6d3XstL3znOiYkAH5UG2 | Will Javier Milei be Argentina's next president? 🇦🇷 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-22T17:06:24 | 2023-11-19T15:18:00 | 2023-11-19T15:18:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JNk4oJ5uVu6nsnsXJeOH | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza strip to someone else by April? | Israel's primary goal seems to be to destroy Hamas. I don't know how to phrase this destruction in clear criteria because such organization are hard to kill completely.
Looking at Hamas' Wikipedia entry today:
Hamas [...] is a Sunni Islamist political and military organization governing the Gaza Strip of the Palestin... | 2023-10-22T15:05:16 | 2024-03-31T14:59:00 | 2024-03-31T15:32:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3wjCdgnQYNDgT1i96lIY | Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list? | I’ve spent much of the past two years working on a book about gambling and risk for Penguin Press. I am very excited about the book.
It’s an ambitious book. Subtopics include: poker, sports betting, game theory, venture capital and entrepreneurship, effective altruism, rationality and utilitarianism, existential risk,... | 2023-10-22T15:02:58 | 2024-08-28T07:04:47 | 2024-08-28T07:04:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wTorNwKDJ8ZciUGp6pT1 | Will we get hallucination rates down to human-expert levels by May 2024? | “I would bet you any sum of money you can get the hallucinations right down into the line of human-expert rate within months.”
— Reid Hoffman, CEO of LinkedIn, Co-Founder of Inflection.AI, September 2023
Gary Marcus: Reid, if you are listening, Gary is in for your bet, for $100,000.
I put it up on Manifold. Subject ... | 2023-10-22T15:01:58 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-02T04:00:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-A4mfi3LFA5gruszsxQiU | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #3 Ohio State beat Wisconsin? | 2023-10-28 at 7:30 PM ET | 2023-10-22T13:41:18 | 2023-10-28T19:51:30 | 2023-10-28T19:51:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1w4Y4WDAFE8PP0XWNJC8 | Will Taylor Swift be at the Chiefs at Broncos game on October 29? | Poll ends Saturday Oct 28 to prevent sniping. Fair is fair.
| 2023-10-22T13:20:59 | 2023-10-28T23:59:00 | 2023-10-29T17:49:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0fCIfAcC5Rydult53uu3 | Will Apple announce new Macs this month? | [image]For the purposes of this market, I'll interpret "this month" as up to a month after the MacRumors article that states "this month" in the headline, so up to Nov 22nd.
Any hardware change will count even if it's just updating to M2 chips or something. | 2023-10-22T13:02:18 | 2023-10-30T17:07:19 | 2023-10-30T17:07:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wl5U9jYg5o3Ctwgi7dkU | Will Tyson Fury defeat Francis Nganno in heavyweight fight 10/28? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-22T13:01:51 | 2023-10-29T11:10:10 | 2023-10-29T11:10:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rrThXqHpomWqEyQgRNvW | Will Apple's journal app be available by Thanksgiving? | "Available" here means available in a public release, not just the beta.
[image] | 2023-10-22T12:59:37 | 2023-11-23T04:59:29 | 2023-11-23T04:59:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9pRBrcHJhuoTXoWGkEEY | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Oklahoma defeat Kansas? | Kickoff: Saturday, October 28, 2023 - 11:00 AM CDT
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium - Lawrence, Kansas
Week 9 Big 12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-iowa-state-defeat-74770a91484c
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-byu-defeat-texas
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-west-virginia-defe-22b9df330c2d
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-cincinnatti-defea... | 2023-10-22T10:09:34 | 2023-10-28T13:47:35 | 2023-10-28T13:47:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZTewyNUz0NxkK7fA24su | Will Arizona Diamondbacks beat Philadelphia Phillies ⚾️ 10/23/2023? | Game Oct 23 @PHI 5:07PM Eastern Time | 2023-10-22T08:05:20 | 2023-10-23T20:59:00 | 2023-10-24T00:27:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RAcrlIykluGPdGusJkqc | [Metaculus] Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 1, 2023, at least two of the internationally recognized media sources listed below publish reports that unequi... | 2023-10-22T01:52:15 | 2023-10-31T11:33:56 | 2023-10-31T11:33:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q5c9BjrdEUKFqz074DRZ | Will LLM hallucinations be down to human-expert rate within months? | Reid Hoffman said:
And there’s a whole bunch of very good R&D on how to massively reduce hallucinations [AI-generated inaccuracies] and get more factuality. Microsoft has been working on that pretty assiduously from last summer, as has Google. It is a solvable problem. I would bet you any sum of money you can get the ... | 2023-10-22T01:14:04 | 2024-01-31T23:59:00 | 2024-02-01T21:13:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3t8JgWQsDHCqMkce7A7o | Will Sheffield United win OR draw against Arsenal on October 28? | 📅 Date: Sunday, October 28, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
Yes if Sheffield United wins or draws against Arsenal. Sheffield United has greater than or equal number of goals than Arsenal
No if Arsenal wins. (Arsenal has more goals than Sheffield United) | 2023-10-21T22:49:01 | 2023-10-28T09:04:57 | 2023-10-28T09:04:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-58wGcS18nma9v0SQgmLE | Will Barcelona beat Shakhtar Donetsk during regular time on Wed, Oct 25, 2023? - UEFA Champions League | ⚽ Barcelona vs Shakhtar Donetsk
📅 Date: Wednesday, October 25, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:45
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Barcelona has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regu... | 2023-10-21T17:01:19 | 2023-10-25T12:45:00 | 2023-10-25T13:34:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1FeOfFIztsOQIOaQ71iP | Will any Democrat vote in support of the next Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress? | Resolves YES if any Democrat votes in support of the winner of the next Speaker of the House election during the 118th Congress, otherwise NO.
If they vote in support of the eventual winner on any ballot (i.e. round of voting), it counts as YES even if that is not the final ballot and they change their vote on another... | 2023-10-21T16:34:02 | 2023-10-25T10:59:23 | 2023-10-25T10:59:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ItUmbbYEir7MmknzuXQP | Will more than 100 Israeli troops invade Gaza before October 31? | The question assumes small numbers of IDF special forces are going in/out of Gaza. The question is asking about a large scale military invasion by tanks and infantry.
Question resolves when news reports show an invasion in progress. | 2023-10-21T13:35:18 | 2023-10-27T16:44:58 | 2023-10-27T16:44:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iisLNh8ZfCnOVuPi1FYV | Will Tim Cook continue as CEO of Apple through 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-21T13:28:07 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-20T18:54:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-19FTaSEKZFtyR4fYVdCs | Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Vikings win
No - 49ers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-21T12:39:18 | 2023-10-23T20:11:49 | 2023-10-23T20:11:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-r9DSuWCJ2HY5olakRQfk | Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Miami Dolphins in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Eagles win
No - Dolphins win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-21T12:38:08 | 2023-10-22T20:16:12 | 2023-10-22T20:16:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XMkQL7cPXEY5II3vsgAT | Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Chiefs win
No - Chargers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-21T12:36:50 | 2023-10-22T16:20:52 | 2023-10-22T16:21:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iqbeWJWHN38xdXnWFUcZ | Will the Denver Broncos beat the Green Bay Packers in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Broncos win
No - Packers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-21T12:35:06 | 2023-10-22T16:24:19 | 2023-10-22T16:25:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FSmu3O8oC0vA1RTEr8gM | Will the New York Giants beat the Washington Commanders in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Giants win
No - Commanders win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-21T12:28:51 | 2023-10-22T13:13:13 | 2023-10-22T13:13:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VhxY97RYx8hT2h8bWJAI | Will the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Bills win
No - Patriots win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-21T12:27:37 | 2023-10-22T13:04:00 | 2023-10-22T13:04:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4uyG3WWQKoMaJqWriCG5 | Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Cleveland Browns in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Colts win
No - Browns win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-21T12:26:03 | 2023-10-22T13:38:25 | 2023-10-22T13:38:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lW9EzJYL2JvNW4CbISNJ | Will Israel agree to a cease fire in Gaza before December 1st 2023 | Israeli cabinet agrees to terms of "ceasefire".
Activity on this site clearly favors the interpretation that this is a ceasefire for the purposes of this question. | 2023-10-21T11:55:19 | 2023-11-22T10:14:38 | 2023-11-22T10:14:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Qr6wvQI8R5Rk66zqZdo | Will a plausible proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024? | A proof obfuscator is a program that takes as input a proof, and outputs a new obfuscated proof of the same theorem, such that the (distributions over) obfuscations of any two proofs of the same length are computationally indistinguishable.
The question is: does there exist a proof obfuscator that starts with a satisf... | 2023-10-21T11:39:52 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-03T17:16:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p2WSCuLqPXOoRv0VsCri | Will Biden visit Saudi Arabia by the end of 2024? | If U.S. President Biden visits Saudi Arabia between October 19, 2023 and December 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Biden physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Saudi Arabia... | 2023-10-21T07:53:06 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-20T18:54:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bsIedOiJx6dWew4POMQQ | The pundits think so, but will the Republicans lose the House in the 2024 elections? | https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/09/could-the-house-and-senate-flip-in-2024-the-odds-look-good.html
[link preview] | 2023-10-21T05:14:18 | 2024-11-12T20:59:00 | 2024-11-13T20:11:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BMWLyPdbSuWxWQchjgk4 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out of office by 6/30/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-21T04:23:48 | 2024-06-30T20:59:00 | 2024-06-30T21:10:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kOmunm6ojesWHPHKsmvU | Will any country's current Head of State or Government die in November? | Must be a country's leader (for governments with both, either head of state or head of government is fine, even if ceremonial) as of November 1st, local time, or become such by question close. Doesn't need to die "in office".
Edge case example: a president who leaves office the third day of the month but then dies the... | 2023-10-21T02:11:27 | 2023-11-30T23:59:00 | 2023-12-01T01:38:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BUSqIAfJgIrZedcfuUdE | Will OpenAI patch the prompt in the description which leaks the System Message in less than 30 days from now? | Related Markets
Will it be possible to trick any relevant "Custom GPT" models to return their training data within 30 days post-launch?
Will it be possible to trick "Custom GPT" models to return their instruction message in the first 30 days post-launch?
Will OpenAI patch the prompt in the description which leaks th... | 2023-10-21T01:11:44 | 2023-11-20T14:59:00 | 2023-11-20T21:12:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cT44GrVbzfQ39z3Gh0ko | Will Rep. Dean Phillips win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic primaries? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-21T00:52:52 | 2024-07-22T12:22:18 | 2024-07-22T12:22:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JJx43ig01JuDdWPmG3Jr | Will Israel launch a ground invasion next week? | This will resolve Friday the 27th of October at 8:30 pm pt.
Ground invasion means Israeli troops ordered on the ground en masse into Gaza Strip. | 2023-10-20T20:32:59 | 2023-10-27T23:59:00 | 2023-10-29T20:03:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WKe0ftuW9T1r3ub5UkWn | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16718/ai-time-person-of-the-year-in-2023/
This question resolves positively if Time announces that its choice for a Time Person of the Year in 2023 is AI. Both generic terms for AI, such as "Large Language Models" and "Generative AI", and specific AI systems, su... | 2023-10-20T17:28:58 | 2023-12-06T05:26:03 | 2023-12-06T05:26:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bKW5kJB9YnrlRJOkdcNq | Will an entity be confirmed to have purchased at least 300,000 H100 GPUs before January 1st, 2025? | The demand for high-performance computing hardware, particularly NVIDIA's H100 Tensor Core GPU, has seen a surge with the rise of advanced artificial intelligence applications. Major investments, like the one seen with Inflection AI which purchased 22,000 H100 GPUs, emphasize the increasing need for these GPUs in large... | 2023-10-20T17:26:06 | 2024-01-22T10:27:32 | 2024-01-22T10:27:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NbsjmQFNFV4kihwUqKdt | Will Philadelphia Phillies beat Arizona Diamondbacks ⚾️ 10/21/2023? | Game Oct 21 @AZ 5:07PM Pacific Time | 2023-10-20T16:23:10 | 2023-10-21T20:17:14 | 2023-10-21T20:17:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6s8pX1kRLGgQcA3DgEG9 | Will Fernando Alonso finish in the points at the US GP 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-20T14:45:14 | 2023-10-22T13:48:36 | 2023-10-22T13:48:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wwqLiPRHoieeQT6Ncr0R | Will Hamas surrender in 2023? | Surrender = Formal acknowledgment of defeat & cessation of all military activities against Israel | 2023-10-20T13:47:29 | 2024-01-01T00:42:54 | 2024-01-01T00:42:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-luhqUJQaICD5JkgFSPyr | Will Meta release a model called Llama 3 before March 1, 2024? | Model must be downloadable by the public before March 1, 2024.
If there is a new model released and it is NOT called Llama 3, this question resolves to NO.
If results are sufficiently unclear, the question may be voided. | 2023-10-20T13:06:20 | 2024-02-29T21:00:00 | 2024-03-01T04:11:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HHH9Lm69EhYjWLpszX0r | Will OpenAI deploy a model called GPT-5 before March 1, 2024? | Model must be accessible by non-OpenAI-employees before March 1, 2024. Beta testers count as YES.
If there is a new model deployed and it is NOT called GPT-5, this question resolves to NO.
If results are sufficiently unclear, the question may be voided. | 2023-10-20T12:50:37 | 2024-02-29T21:00:00 | 2024-03-01T04:11:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BCBk93gPUhaLmX2W6Ycg | Will the US president confirm the presence of Non-Human Intelligence inside our solar system before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-20T11:22:27 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:45:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3LYxg7Py9700CYdEW5UK | Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft record by the end of 2023 | Resolves NO if xQc does not claim the record title by 00:00 GMT 01.01.2024
Resolves YES if he does at any point before (after the creation of this market).
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dgga/will-forsen-or-xqc-be-holding-the-m) | 2023-10-20T10:25:37 | 2023-12-31T16:00:00 | 2023-12-31T22:06:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-utJrF17bSMnCRzn4zuuW | Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft record before December 2023? | Time to beat: 15:28.130
| 2023-10-20T10:18:05 | 2023-11-30T20:59:00 | 2023-11-30T21:18:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M7DAcSs131DxlJKLLda4 | [M2K Sub] Will a "dark horse" be the next Speaker of the House?[Not McHenry/ Emmer /McCarthy/ Jeffries/ Jordan/ Scalise] | This market resolves YES if anyone other than the 6 people in the screenshot below is the next speaker of the house. It resolves NO if one of those six people is the next speaker.
This is a derivative market of @/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12 . At the time of market creation, the top op... | 2023-10-20T09:46:48 | 2023-10-25T10:50:05 | 2023-10-25T10:50:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8q9nvsRM2PvYlHwW1Pg6 | Will AI cause a market crash (2024)? | Gary Gensler thinks it may. Tyler Cowen thinks not.
Resolves according to Tyler Cowen's judgment if and when a market crash occurs.
Resolves YES if a crash occurs and Tyler Cowen says it is at least likely and largely attributable to AI, or some nearby version of that proposition.
If Tyler Cowen agrees a crash occ... | 2023-10-20T08:13:08 | 2024-12-31T19:38:50 | 2024-12-31T19:38:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7iN5lLvlsPGyWL3Ts81d | Coup in Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan or Lebanon before 2025 | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any formal or official announcement or confirmation is made before January 1, 2025, indicating that a coup d'etat has occurred in Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, or Lebanon. A coup d'etat refers to the unlawful, unconstitutional overthrow of a government, typically by a faction within t... | 2023-10-20T06:22:08 | 2024-12-10T08:12:34 | 2024-12-10T08:12:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UxYLeCBEsE3ENFgfrO6j | One week after the approval of a US bitcoin ETF, will the BTC price be higher? | This market will compare the price of bitcoin at 11:59:59pm ET the day before a United States bitcoin ETF is approved; to the price at 11:59:59pm ET, on the same day of the week, 7 days and a few hours after the ETF is approved.
The reference time for this market has now been set at January 17, 2024, 11:59:59pm EST. ... | 2023-10-20T06:09:58 | 2024-01-17T20:59:00 | 2024-01-18T04:12:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-prScxOIIC6NYHcXEgofR | Will Joe Biden replace Kamala Harris as his VP running mate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-20T06:08:02 | 2024-07-26T15:10:51 | 2024-07-26T15:10:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BELKjsSQ9sVedhAuSq46 | Twitter will add better support for prediction markets before April 2024 | Things that will resolve yes:
Include prediction market image cards in community notes
Automatic scraping of % in communty notes
An internal prediction market system.
I am actively trying to make this happen. | 2023-10-20T04:20:47 | 2024-03-31T15:59:00 | 2024-04-09T04:37:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-80ThEisR6QFBovCfkMOS | Will the next Speaker of the House be elected with bipartisan support? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-20T03:57:17 | 2023-10-25T13:32:12 | 2023-10-25T13:32:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h2ScQ7q8pD4rVoge6hly | Between now and November 20th, Destiny will play any game for 5+ hours. | Destiny has barely played games on stream since he's been on those ADHD meds. Resolves yes if he spends at least 5 hours on any single game before this market closes.
Only time played on stream counts.
If the game is running in the background but he is not interacting with it for a substantial amount of time, then th... | 2023-10-20T02:58:04 | 2023-11-17T12:41:58 | 2023-11-17T12:41:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v82HphzZ23ObGtv4ethz | Will Mike Pence end his presidential campaign before the first primary is held? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-20T02:40:01 | 2023-10-28T11:36:07 | 2023-10-28T11:36:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eeCQhc7voqZIh28ktlBf | Will Christian McCaffrey play in week 7? | Yes if he takes the field vs Vikings, no if he doesn't. | 2023-10-20T00:03:59 | 2023-10-23T21:09:00 | 2023-10-23T21:09:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rMbjK1a2GA58Ml6wPsn5 | Will Bitcoin ETF be approved by SEC in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-19T21:08:01 | 2023-12-31T21:06:00 | 2024-01-01T21:55:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YOoCJlnRSDYThijniI1c | Will Twitter (X) go bankrupt before 2025 | Will Twitter (X) file for bankruptcy before 2025.
This does not depend on whether the site is operating. | 2023-10-19T20:54:40 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:30:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ll7vjMH2N9kARSaaAfB2 | Will a team whose mascot is an animal (non-human) represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season? | Eagles, Lions, Seahawks, Rams, Falcons, Bears, Cardinals, and Panthers all resolve this "yes." | 2023-10-19T19:34:47 | 2024-01-29T19:54:50 | 2024-01-29T19:54:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WDp29V1sDvLb2iGAejv0 | Will Philadelphia Phillies beat Arizona Diamondbacks ⚾️ 10/20/2023? | Game Oct 20 @AZ 5:07PM Pacific Time | 2023-10-19T19:02:03 | 2023-10-21T01:36:44 | 2023-10-21T01:36:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
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