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mani-LwEmt1o2uYJxIkq1Xe8a
|
Will Tottenham beat Fulham during regular time on Mon, Oct 23, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ Tottenham vs Fulham
📅 Date: Monday, October 23, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Tottenham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Both teams have an equal number of goals
Fulham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-10-19T17:01:09
|
2023-10-23T14:00:46
|
2023-10-23T14:00:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mrq8pbH7WvJOQkhDXJL6
|
Will Nintendo announce a new video game console before 30 June, 2024?
|
Will a Switch 2 (or whatever it will be called) come out by June next year?
Resolved to Yes if Nintendo officially announces it before 30 June, 2024
Resolved to No othewise
|
2023-10-19T16:49:32
|
2024-06-29T16:04:05
|
2024-06-29T16:04:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YBxYZJnm6g611nr3e0um
|
Will GOOG close above $150 on any day of 2023?
|
Stock must close above or at $150 on any trading day of 2023.
|
2023-10-19T16:31:01
|
2023-12-29T20:21:51
|
2023-12-29T20:21:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d5SYLWAzILxDDCffJ05i
|
Did Israeli forces just blow up the Church of St. Porphyrius in Gaza?
|
There are rumors to this effect on Twitter and other sites.
Resolution will be based on some combination of credible news reporting from widely respected sources, OSINT consensus, and independent investigations from orgs like Bellingcat. It's not yet clear whether this will attract as much attention as the hospital incident, and I reserve the right to resolve N/A if there is insufficient coverage or investigation to establish a consensus.
However, I will only resolve N/A on or after Dec 31. I may resolve YES or NO early, before Dec 31, if there is an overwhelming consensus that remains stable for some time.
Definition of "blow up":
Significant structural damage - walls, roofs, etc entirely knocked down or blown up. Blown out windows do not count, a hole in a wall does not count. An entire wall toppling over does count, as does, say, a 20x20 section of roof caving in. If the main architectural features of the church are no longer standing, that absolutely counts. To count, this must be attributable to a direct hit on the church, not shrapnel or fire from a nearby hit on another building.
At least some smallish number of deaths (I'm thinking 1 to 5, unsure where within that range) of people sheltering inside the church, as a result of a direct hit on the church, and not attributable purely to shrapnel, blown out windows, or fire spreading from a hit elsewhere.
So if miraculously nobody dies but the church is a pile of rubble afterward from a direct hit, that is a YES. It is also a YES if 5+ people die due to non-shrapnel damage from a direct hit, even if that direct hit does not cause significant structural damage.
If Israeli forces hit a nearby building, causing a fire that spread to the church, that would not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
|
2023-10-19T16:05:24
|
2023-10-20T17:31:10
|
2023-10-20T17:31:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mKPOiEOtrYRAwWaQZHt8
|
Will Rashida Tlaib be censured, denounced or condemned by Congress before the end of 2023?
|
Will congress take any meaningful action to condemn remarks made by her until the end of 2023 from date this started. Actions could include removal from committee assignments, a mention in any formal declaration (by name) that criticizes her or other common disciplinary actions and passed by Congress.
|
2023-10-19T14:28:01
|
2023-11-07T22:53:07
|
2023-11-07T22:53:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8t7JSNSwPG7rNMCzpkV4
|
Will Emanuel Macron visit Israel in October 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-19T13:25:26
|
2023-10-23T23:20:23
|
2023-10-23T23:20:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M3M1EaKkKN0LsxZoLcKk
|
Will Killers of the Flower Moon be rated at least 8.2 in IMDB at the end of 2023?
|
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002
Related:
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-killers-of-the-flower-moon-be
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-killers-of-the-flower-moon-be-025fb72d4821
|
2023-10-19T12:11:56
|
2024-01-01T09:42:21
|
2024-01-01T09:42:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xbiF5NghlKkGM21xFCxb
|
Will twitter / X no longer be available in Europe by end of January 2024
|
Market will resolve if Twitter / X is either banned by the EU or cut off by X
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/oct/19/elon-musk-considering-removing-x-access-europe/
[link preview]
|
2023-10-19T10:06:30
|
2024-01-31T23:59:00
|
2024-02-01T20:13:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-08v3PoqaVi33CtQaTQw7
|
Will any permanent speaker of the house be elected without bipartisan support before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-19T09:51:56
|
2023-10-25T12:11:19
|
2023-10-25T12:11:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GfkwECrr6b9XN9Jk4WNu
|
Will a police incident lead to widespread protests in the US in 2024?
|
In both 2016 and 2020, news coverage of police shootings of African Americans increased significantly, elevating the racial justice movement prior to national elections. In other years, that coverage decreased significantly, despite the number of police shootings of African Americans remaining largely constant since 2015.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=police%20shooting%20black&hl=en
This question aims to test whether the racial justice movement and confrontations with police become more salient in an election year like 2024, and the role of the media in amplifying it.
Resolution Criteria:
The event must involve an African American and U.S. law enforcement. Law enforcement includes local, state, and federal police, FBI, ICE, ATF, you name it. It does not include non-US border patrol and law enforcement. The victim is considered African American for the purpose of this market if the protest or media coverage mentions that they're African American or black.
The event does not have to be a shooting. If protests erupt nationwide as a result of an IRS audit of an African American, that counts.
The protests have to be in response to the event. For example, if "Stop the Steal" rallies are already planned in Atlanta and a police shooting occurs the day before, it won't count.
The protests have to mention the event, but can also be about other topics. Media coverage of the protest has to mention the event. If Biden rallies are already planned, and a police shooting occurs the day before, and they decide to make incorporate it into the rally messaging, it counts. Similarly, if pro-Palestine rallies happen and invoke a recent police shooting (and this is mentioned in media coverage of the rallies), it counts.
The protests must occur in at least five states. Similar to 2016 and 2020.
Each protest needs to be covered by at least three video sources, of which at least one has to be a "mainstream" media source like CNN, NBC, Fox, or NYT. Rumble and other sites are not mainstream, but count as video sources.
The victim cannot already have been a celebrity. If Drake gets arrested and it leads to protests, it doesn't count. Celebrity means profiled in a major non-local news outlet prior to the event (so George Floyd's IMBD page doesn't count).
All of these criteria being fulfilled will result in the question resolving YES. All other outcomes will result in NO. This question will not resolve N/A. I won't particpate either.
Submit evidence in the comments.
|
2023-10-19T09:41:47
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T00:07:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3CdSIFF9RpmeZKsYksXt
|
Will any Democrat vote for empowering McHenry?
|
Resolves YES if there is a vote for empowering McHenry (regardless of as speaker pro tempore, full speaker, or some other title). Resolves NO when either such a resolution passes without Democratic support, a new speaker is chosen, or the congress term ends. This market will NOT resolve N/A.
|
2023-10-19T09:30:03
|
2023-10-25T10:55:12
|
2023-10-25T10:55:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oRclpyaFNWRCBLbeORob
|
Will over 20 people die in France as a result of Islamic terrorism within the next three months?
|
Last friday a teacher was killed and two other staff members were injured as a result of a terror attack.
France has raised its alert level to urgent terrorist alert, and in recent days major tourist attractions in France have been evacuated after terror alerts.
If over 20 people die as a result of Islamic terrorism in France by close date this market resolves YES. French people dying outside of France as a result of islamic terrorism do not count for this market, but non-french people dying in France do.
I will not bet on this market.
|
2023-10-19T09:20:14
|
2024-01-19T15:59:00
|
2024-01-19T21:09:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NgjWRCzcN7maBL8BiIhr
|
Will Biden Complete Full First Term?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-19T09:18:19
|
2025-01-20T11:51:34
|
2025-01-20T15:03:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vGThwVwiV12Wcn4fIeIJ
|
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2023?
|
Most recent activity was January, when it moved to 90 seconds to midnight (all-time record).
|
2023-10-19T07:08:56
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:31:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EbXqg5C1ihtrraCDkFV8
|
Will the house vote to expand the power of the acting house speaker (Patrick McHenry) before electing a new speaker?
|
Will the house vote to expand the power of the acting house speaker (Patrick T. McHenry) before electing a new Speaker of the House.
Bet resolves YES if his powers are expanded before a new speaker is elected. Bet resolves NO if a new speaker is elected and his powers remain unchanged.
|
2023-10-19T06:10:24
|
2023-10-27T13:19:50
|
2023-10-27T13:19:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pz0hUjf2yTBkLWlEFVpy
|
Will AGI be accomplished by September of 2024?
|
Reason, use strategy, solve puzzles, and make judgments under uncertainty
represent knowledge, including common sense knowledge
plan
learn
communicate in natural language
if necessary, integrate these skills completion of any given goal
|
2023-10-19T05:01:35
|
2024-09-30T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:56:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B8N9cQgqpHciuR39WJkL
|
Will a physical fight break out on the floor of the House of Reps during a Speaker vote?
|
This resolves YES if there is a physical fight on the floor of the house of reps during a Speaker vote.
Last Speaker vote with McCarthy, Rep. Rogers had to be restrained from punching Rep. Gaetz. That would have been sufficient to resolve YES though no punches were landed or thrown. I will follow that model.
Tensions are high with death threats and other form of intimidation between members. Will we reach a breaking point or is Matt Gaetz just uniquely punchable?
Deadline will be extended if there is no formal Speaker agreed upon.
|
2023-10-19T05:00:27
|
2023-10-25T10:55:54
|
2023-10-25T10:55:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I2CpFJU3bOJaSmh1my5v
|
If Biden is not the 2024 nominee, will it be by choice?
|
Resolves YES if he stops his campaign voluntarily (even if it seems he was pressured), NO if he loses the primaries, dies, or is removed from office via the 25th amendment or impeachment.
|
2023-10-19T03:06:21
|
2024-07-22T00:06:59
|
2024-07-22T00:06:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pKyx2YPi3LwaE2TNNuB7
|
Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by end of 2024?
|
From @CarsonGale:
"Resolves positively if, by 2024-12-31, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods. The important criteria is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car.
Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively."
Basically the same market as https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-cruise-or-waymo-open-their-ser-7f899e879f0b but resolves one year later.
[link preview]
|
2023-10-18T21:25:12
|
2024-06-25T12:06:55
|
2024-06-25T12:06:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FIVwXbyHxqW8xVkJgF7h
|
Will Iran engage in direct military action against Israel before February 1, 2024?
|
Iran has told Israel that time is up to stop the civilian casualties in Gaza. In the wake of the hospital explosion which much of the Middle East is enraged about, will Iran get directly involved in the conflict?
|
2023-10-18T19:16:57
|
2024-02-02T21:59:00
|
2024-02-28T14:33:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C8L72j5vG8ydlIGl4Cvv
|
Will Ohio vote to legalize marijuana in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-18T18:39:36
|
2023-11-08T08:51:10
|
2023-11-08T08:51:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6IFCulHJX2OebXDFNKrb
|
Will Florida vote to legalize marijuana in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-18T18:39:11
|
2024-11-08T11:20:46
|
2024-11-08T11:20:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xdxK2X99fSapmzVWXaF6
|
Will the next Speaker of the House have an odd number of letters in the last name?
|
Resolves true if whoever is elected as the next speaker of the House has an odd number of letters in their last name, and false if the number of letters in their surname is an even.
|
2023-10-18T18:08:26
|
2023-10-25T12:32:17
|
2023-10-25T12:32:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cYCDqhPdRh6dAuwh6h2W
|
Will Jim Jordan receive 200 votes or more on the 3rd vote for Speaker of the House in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-18T17:27:09
|
2023-10-20T09:29:19
|
2023-10-20T09:29:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6YIEacoVpCpjSlwwYulv
|
Will Destiny reach 724k subscribers in October?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
Will Destiny reach 722k subscribers in October?
Will Destiny reach 723k subscribers in October?
Will Destiny reach 725k subscribers in October?
Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 750k subscribers by the end of October?
How many subscribers will Destiny have by the end of October?
|
2023-10-18T16:30:15
|
2023-11-01T11:15:40
|
2023-11-01T11:15:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3y5nqjbEitkqzxCPUWps
|
Will Destiny reach 723k subscribers in October?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
Will Destiny reach 722k subscribers in October?
Will Destiny reach 724k subscribers in October?
Will Destiny reach 725k subscribers in October?
Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 750k subscribers by the end of October?
How many subscribers will Destiny have by the end of October?
|
2023-10-18T16:29:52
|
2023-10-30T09:52:11
|
2023-10-30T09:52:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WOYLMrvLNbicJyIc48xS
|
Jim Jordan received less votes on the second round for Speaker. Will he get even less than 199 on the 3rd round?
|
[image]
|
2023-10-18T16:16:56
|
2023-10-20T13:02:32
|
2023-10-20T13:02:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WzneGTWMRxYYCu6RnXMW
|
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 19 than it closed on October 18?
|
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $28,326.50
This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1000
2 650
3 400
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-10-18T14:33:54
|
2023-10-19T16:00:00
|
2023-10-20T07:11:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bVemSqCTRoa5ujk1RQRt
|
Will London Breed be re-elected mayor of San Francisco, California in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-18T13:35:20
|
2024-11-10T18:21:02
|
2024-11-10T18:21:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e4kFMv6iHn345Tnjfjz4
|
Will a new Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected before the end of October 25th?
|
Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives on October 3rd. Efforts to elect a Speaker are entering their third week.
Will a new Speaker be elected by the end of Wednesday, October 25th (EST)?
|
2023-10-18T12:02:00
|
2023-10-25T16:02:05
|
2023-10-25T16:02:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NmQXx4qu1u4EZrbOol4m
|
Will Nicolas Maduro be President of Venezuela on 10 January 2025?
|
Venezuela is holding a presidential election in 2024, the winner of which will begin a new presidential term on 10 January 2025.
If Maduro is president at the end of that day (e.g. he is inaugurated for another term), this question resolves YES. If he isn't president at the end of that day, it resolves NO.
Nicolás Maduro has been Venezuela's president since 2013. Will Maduro be president on 10 January 2025?
|
2023-10-18T11:44:25
|
2025-01-10T23:59:00
|
2025-01-11T12:44:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cZHk42ILlowR3owk1eUJ
|
Will Jim Jordan be nominated on a third ballot for speaker by 10/20 at 11:59PM?
|
Will resolve to YES is Jim Jordan gets nominated by a member on the floor, otherwise NO. If this market does not resolve by Friday, 10/20 at 11:59 PM, it will resolve to NO
|
2023-10-18T11:37:33
|
2023-10-20T07:54:36
|
2023-10-20T07:54:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AcKMXGaq4QpJ7xEYv6Qi
|
Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?
|
Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as Yes if the final version of the EU AI Act includes requirements on providers of foundation models, as outlined in the European Parliament’s negotiating mandate for the Act in Article 28b. Any of the requirements in parts a through e as well as part g of paragraph 2 and parts a through c in paragraph 4 of Article 28b qualify for the purposes of this question.
Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19299/eu-regulations-on-foundation-models/
|
2023-10-18T11:36:55
|
2024-09-25T12:06:17
|
2024-09-25T12:06:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2PR83ndJofIB5yE5eNdW
|
SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?
|
In the 2023 State of AI Report (https://www.stateof.ai/) this is the third prediction:
"Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)."
This resolves to YES if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was true, and the example they site is reasonable.
This resolves to NO if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was false, or all cited examples and ones I can come up with seem unreasonable.
I will resolve this early if the market is >95% and I believe we have a clear example of such an advancement, but since we do not know when the report comes out we cannot resolve to NO early.
If there is no report by EOY 24 I will evaluate this myself.
When evaluating advances, I will interpret the word 'crush' to mean a large advancement in capabilities or skill - e.g. merely 'the new best chess or go program' would not count but AlphaZero or AlphaGo would have.
[link preview]
|
2023-10-18T11:06:33
|
2024-10-11T08:45:52
|
2024-10-11T08:45:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-61oiohM3zv41cGOXHAIA
|
Will the New York Times definitively state Israel was not behind the Gaza hospital blast?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The New York Times, on any of its official platforms, definitively states that Israel was not responsible for the hospital blast in Gaza. This could be in the form of a corrected article, a retraction, an updated headline, or a public statement explicitly attributing the blast to a different party (Hamas, PIJ, etc.). If The New York Times does not make such a definitive statement by November 1, 2023, the market will resolve to "No". Official New York Times publications and statements will be used to determine the resolution.
|
2023-10-18T10:20:18
|
2023-11-01T21:59:00
|
2023-11-02T05:33:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pWo5fESXf9cdJpmQ3u8V
|
Will any New York Times staff face consequences for the Gaza hospital strike headline?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any New York Times journalist or executive faces formal consequences as a direct result of the incorrect 'Israel strikes Gaza hospital' headline. Formal consequences may include, but are not limited to, termination, suspension or disciplinary action. Informal consequences such as negative publicity will not be considered. The market will resolve to "No" if no such action is taken by November 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Official announcements from The New York Times or confirmed reports from reputable news sources will be used to determine the resolution.
|
2023-10-18T10:19:37
|
2023-11-01T21:59:00
|
2023-11-02T05:32:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9xFiSdGaDtHvuwJ63fJv
|
[1 day] Will the House vote TODAY on a resolution that confers further powers on Patrick McHenry as Speaker pro tempore?
|
This resolves YES if the House of Representatives takes a vote on any resolution that would add to or modify the powers of Speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry today. (Specifically, if the House begins such a vote by midnight on October 18, 2023.) It resolves NO otherwise.
The outcome of such a vote will not have any bearing on the resolution of this market.
See as context:
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/18/speaker-house-mchenry-jordan-gop
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/effort-empower-interim-speaker-mchenry-gains-steam-jordan-momentum-stalls ("Resolution to expand McHenry's powers could be introduced Wednesday, a source tells Fox News Digital")
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/17/speaker-jordan-mchenry-mike-kelly/
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/calls-grow-to-elect-mchenry-temporary-house-speaker-.html
|
2023-10-18T09:29:32
|
2023-10-18T20:59:00
|
2023-10-18T22:41:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-15TNNZjTsWkf4ADJIvAz
|
Will the House empower McHenry as temporary Speaker?
|
Resolves YES if the House grants the power to oversee the passage of legislation to Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC), before the election of a permanent Speaker of the House. Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.axios.com/2023/10/18/speaker-house-mchenry-jordan-gop
Any other speaker pro tempore does not count for this market.
(Standard rule for my markets: the resolution does not depend on the close date. The close date may be extended as necessary.)
|
2023-10-18T09:21:56
|
2023-10-25T11:00:37
|
2023-10-25T11:00:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SszF71u6mP8YVTGSJzOF
|
Will the House empower a temporary Speaker?
|
Resolves YES if the House grants the power to oversee the passage of legislation to any speaker pro tempore, before the election of a permanent Speaker of the House. Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.axios.com/2023/10/18/speaker-house-mchenry-jordan-gop
(Standard rule for my markets: the resolution does not depend on the close date. The close date may be extended as necessary.)
|
2023-10-18T09:20:46
|
2023-10-25T11:00:51
|
2023-10-25T11:00:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY
|
Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?
|
https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.09512
Resolves once either of the following are true:
There's an easily accessible and broadly accepted consensus on the subject, such as Wikipedia providing an answer.
Scott Aaronson or some other well-known and respected computational complexity person states it is or isn't valid, and there doesn't seem to be significant disagreement from any other well-known and respected computational complexity people.
|
2023-10-18T09:06:06
|
2024-04-15T14:36:15
|
2024-04-15T14:36:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oj7Bu6KNAUixiu1OK3kR
|
Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Saints win
No - Jaguars win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-10-18T08:40:46
|
2023-10-19T20:59:00
|
2023-10-19T21:17:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1YgiuJRZc9BgWxWw98jx
|
Will there be credible evidence that Israel is not responsible for the hospital explosion in Gaza?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-18T08:27:44
|
2023-10-19T12:34:26
|
2023-10-19T12:34:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3upE3ZDoz6TtO6x7uWIQ
|
[Short-Fuse] Will Jim Jordan drop out from the house speaker race before the 3rd vote?
|
If Jim Jordan gives up his role as speaker-nominee before the 3rd vote, resolves YES. Resolves NO if the 3rd vote happens while he's still the nominee.
|
2023-10-18T07:46:52
|
2023-10-20T08:38:26
|
2023-10-20T08:38:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SsM3jguznRnDRaQiWr4C
|
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC beat Fulham FC on 23 October 2023?
|
Tottenham plays Fulham in an English Premier League football match on 23 October 2023. Both teams are based in London and the match will be played at Tottenham Hotspur stadium. Tottenham are currently 1st in the league and Fulham are currently 12th.
|
2023-10-18T06:14:58
|
2023-10-23T15:08:01
|
2023-10-23T15:08:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ci2zAZlCDise9jiZDT0j
|
Will Colby Covington beat Leon Edwards at UFC 296?
|
Colby Covington and Leon Edwards are scheduled to fight on December 16th, 2023 at a UFC event in Las Vegas.
If Colby Covington wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Leon Edwards wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
|
2023-10-18T03:09:30
|
2023-12-16T22:24:33
|
2023-12-16T22:24:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E7OamkzNuAWp5cTnnDpF
|
Will Mahmoud Abbas remain the President of Palestine until the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-18T01:12:55
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:58:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bx74KAwrp9IqbuX83ROw
|
Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 15th November be below 6%?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 15th November.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March 2023 - 10.4%
April 2023 - 10.1%
May 2023 - 8.7%
June 2023 - 8.7%
July 2023 - 7.9%
August 2023 - 6.8%
September 2023 - 6.7%
October 2023 - 6.7%
November 2023 - TBC
(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 6.0%)
Some other UK financial markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5
|
2023-10-17T23:20:00
|
2023-11-14T23:41:50
|
2023-11-14T23:41:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MKtQQiDKAPgycLS0ZO0H
|
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-17T21:16:20
|
2024-02-11T23:59:00
|
2024-03-02T16:58:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0152pU3IfytYzhKdFsmy
|
Will a U.S. embassy compound be breached during 2023?
|
Resolves YES upon confirmation from the U.S. Embassy in question and/or the State Department that an embassy compound was breached.
|
2023-10-17T19:18:25
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:29:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IHKOIO2ZsTVo3nkd5rGH
|
Will Joe Manchin run for president before January 1st 2024?
|
Will Joe Manchin announce a presidential campaign or exploratory committee, regardless of party affiliation, before 2024?
|
2023-10-17T19:16:26
|
2023-12-31T22:00:15
|
2023-12-31T22:00:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QYfJn4YkhGK3t5zxrRE9
|
Will Houston Astros beat Texas Rangers ⚾️ 10/18/2023?
|
Game Oct 18 @TEX 7:03PM Central Time
|
2023-10-17T18:45:03
|
2023-10-19T02:39:36
|
2023-10-19T02:39:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7bPXWI1n7TLx2wcYBv5Z
|
Will Liverpool beat Everton during regular time on Sat, Oct 21, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ Liverpool vs Everton
📅 Date: Saturday, October 21, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 11:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Liverpool has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Both teams have an equal number of goals
Everton has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-10-17T17:01:10
|
2023-10-21T06:35:49
|
2023-10-21T06:35:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0ycqaBRVC9h5hIALEXKI
|
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift still be together at the end of the NFL season?
|
This will resolve "yes" if Taylor is still going to all Travis's games through the end of the season for KC.
|
2023-10-17T16:44:20
|
2024-02-11T20:59:00
|
2024-02-12T03:08:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KL8Hh8eiIwvagI8KQXD3
|
Will the IDF choose not to launch a siege of Gaza before the end of October?
|
Siege = ground offensive
|
2023-10-17T16:13:07
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-10-31T22:10:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L0AoGE79lTG4BBLm39dJ
|
Will Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (2023) be nominated for Best Picture at the 2024 Academy Awards (Oscars)?
|
Resolves to true if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is nominated for Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars, and false otherwise.
|
2023-10-17T15:17:32
|
2024-01-23T05:50:40
|
2024-01-23T05:50:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LUp5Ivb9c0LchptZBEQq
|
Will the House change the rules prevent a single member from being able to move to vacate chair by end of 2023?
|
Obviously they will need to choose a new Speaker first...
|
2023-10-17T14:31:22
|
2023-12-31T20:22:43
|
2023-12-31T20:22:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u2D0JcdMV7xK4P4mugmB
|
Will Joe Biden be banned from Truth Social by the end of 2023?
|
https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-joins-truth-social-and-immediately-follows-trump-2023-10
[link preview]
|
2023-10-17T14:14:31
|
2023-12-31T20:13:02
|
2023-12-31T20:13:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VDCg8xoWSoioVceHNNoN
|
Did the IDF launch the attack that allegedly destroyed the Gaza Baptist Hospital and killed over 500 Palestinians?
|
This market will resolve once there is a definitive story in multiple international news organizations as to whether an IDF operation, a botched Hamas missile launch, or some other party was responsible for the destruction of the Gaza Baptist Hospital, AKA the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital. The duration of the market will be extended if necessary. Feel free to post non-state news sources in the comments, but please actually read and vet them to the best of your ability first. This market will not resolve N/A.
This is a rare opportunity to actually gage our collective ability to parse propaganda and news.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion
|
2023-10-17T13:28:59
|
2023-10-22T00:20:41
|
2023-10-22T00:20:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tthOrSibQGkRAccC2Dr0
|
Did Israel bomb al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza?
|
Today (17/10) a hospital in Gaza was bombed, causing the death of at least 500 people. Hamas blames Israel and Israel blames a misfire of the Islamic Jihad.
This market will resolve 6 months according to a review of international media sources. I will be the arbiter, so I will not be betting on this market, but I am welcoming discussion and I will make an effort to make a resolution that is as broadly aggreable as possible.
This market will resolve to one of 5 options
YES - If there is a consensus that Israel did it.
75% - If there is significantly more evidence that Israel did it than that they didn't.
50% - If there is still no available independently verifiable evidence (unverified claims from Israel or Hamas don't count) or no clarity as to who did it.
25% - If there is significantly more evidence that it is not Israel who did it.
NO - If there is a consensus that it is not Israel who did it.
Resolving YES or NO would also require a consensus of Manifolders, but I am intentionally leaving what this means up to interpretation. This is done in order to avoid controversial resolutions, but the more important consensus required for YES or NO is that of experts.
Full disclosure - I am Israeli, but I don't support many of my government's actions, so I don't think I'm really biased here. I will do my best to keep an open mind, discuss with the community, and stick to facts.
|
2023-10-17T13:18:52
|
2024-04-17T20:59:00
|
2024-05-12T12:02:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Orv7bf4uATJs3kxOWiyJ
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 18 than it closed on October 17?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2500
2 1750
3 1250
4 750
5 500
Good luck forecasting!
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-10-17T13:06:36
|
2023-10-18T11:00:00
|
2023-10-18T14:32:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vDXXD9nn5KxZgjJqaqU4
|
Was Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital hit by an airstrike?
|
An explosion hit Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on October 17th.
This will resolve YES if the Israel Air Force or a credible* third party investigates and reports that the Israel Air Force struck the hospital, whether or not it was deliberate. It'll resolve NO if a credible* investigation concludes that it wasn't an airstrike. It'll resolve N/A if there's no such investigation; if investigations aren't conclusive; or if multiple investigations come to contradictory findings and none seem especially credible.
I'll extend the closing date if I know of any credible* investigations still in the works.
*Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and B'Tzelem are credible enough to me. UNHRC, UNRWA, and other UN bodies aren't, but would still count if their investigations seem uncharacteristically credible. Investigations by major western media outlets like NYT, BBC, CBC, and Washington Post would count too, but routine news articles don't.
|
2023-10-17T13:04:39
|
2023-11-11T22:04:21
|
2023-11-11T22:04:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NBBBrB447GNKKBnij8cR
|
Will there be a tie during the 2023 NFL regular season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-17T12:04:47
|
2024-01-07T21:59:00
|
2024-01-08T06:48:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hbDCTuRoJeCa0XJXPzKC
|
Will Representative Patrick McHenry be given more broad powers as speaker pro tempore of the House of Representatives?
|
This needs to happen within 30 days or before a new speaker is chosen.
|
2023-10-17T11:57:41
|
2023-10-25T10:56:38
|
2023-10-25T10:56:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HbzRAT7k4koAwKjLvblc
|
Will any Democrat vote for the next speaker?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Democratic congressperson votes for the next person elected Speaker of the House. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only a vote which successfully elects a new Speaker will count toward this market's resolution.
If no Speaker is elected before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve N/A
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2023-10-17T11:33:26
|
2023-10-30T15:35:37
|
2023-10-30T15:35:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tCE6iPcna4PDvW0ZjfiU
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before July 1st 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-17T11:25:11
|
2024-07-04T08:58:23
|
2024-07-04T08:58:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qK1s6xxAUVbD8C4riZEH
|
Will Jim Jordan receive more votes on the second vote for Speaker than on the first?
|
This resolves YES if Jim Jordan receives more than 200 votes for Speaker during the next vote on electing the Speaker of the House, and NO otherwise.
|
2023-10-17T11:12:34
|
2023-10-18T10:16:05
|
2023-10-18T10:16:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZzYqNU2vGkyXqT5UVuKH
|
Will Apple Vision Pro be sold in ≥5 countries on August 1st, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-17T09:56:36
|
2024-08-01T12:41:40
|
2024-08-01T12:41:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1uJHwsgFXXLextjYDrTp
|
Will Five Nights at Freddy's gross >$80M on opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 27 - October 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) grosses more than $80,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-10-17T09:50:00
|
2023-10-30T15:35:56
|
2023-10-30T15:35:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vgo2zRvvfgU7vPBL2zED
|
Will Five Nights at Freddy's gross >$70M on opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 27 - October 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) grosses more than $70,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-10-17T09:49:29
|
2023-10-30T15:36:12
|
2023-10-30T15:36:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7VA7m7C8bEfRIB6wUxWH
|
Will Five Nights at Freddy's gross >$60M on opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 27 - October 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) grosses more than $60,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-10-17T09:49:02
|
2023-10-30T15:37:37
|
2023-10-30T15:37:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BjTJaXUJcoCsLTvCsCO2
|
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-17T09:28:32
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T23:47:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bk7hgvO5r035V8UFVCjj
|
Will the Israel-Hamas conflict widen to include Iran or Lebanon/Hezbollah?
|
Resolves to YES if Iran or Hezbollah/Lebanon get directly involved in the fighting.
|
2023-10-17T09:25:07
|
2023-11-16T20:59:00
|
2023-11-17T04:22:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LzFUuOIuvucgeU61xRTi
|
Will Biden's Truth Social account reach 100,000 followers by 2024?
|
The Biden team recently created a Truth Social account. As of this question writing, the account has 16.2k followers. Will it reach 100k by the end of the year?
|
2023-10-17T07:03:00
|
2024-01-01T08:48:42
|
2024-01-01T08:48:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GcSGP8sAEW5MfUDtGC0L
|
Will there be more NATO countries at the end of 2024 than there are today (October 17, 2023)?
|
As of time of posting, there are 31 NATO countries: Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
On December 31, 2024, this will resolve to true if NATO has 32 or more members.
|
2023-10-17T07:01:58
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T10:02:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RmoJZqEB7wJWi2sYOcM1
|
Will Arizona Diamondbacks beat Philadelphia Phillies ⚾️ 10/17/2023?
|
Game Oct 17 @PHI 8:07PM Eastern Time
|
2023-10-17T07:01:06
|
2023-10-17T20:15:03
|
2023-10-17T20:15:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GXLeoecclhHA5JbTR0Ze
|
[Metaculus] Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
|
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports that both the United States and Iran are either primary parties or active warring parties on opposite sides of a conflict resulting in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
|
2023-10-17T04:18:24
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:26:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r49ijp9Fl7ByY757jBHt
|
Will x.com be the primary domain of Twitter / X by H2 2024?
|
Currently, x.com redirects to twitter.com. Will the primary domain be switched, and will this key step of its nascent rebrand be completed by the second half of 2024? Will they back out of the rebrand entirely?
Resolves yes if x.com is the primary domain for Twitter/X by 1st July, 2024.
Resolves no otherwise.
|
2023-10-17T01:30:15
|
2024-05-16T23:04:09
|
2024-05-16T23:04:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TR0HB4kd1XVad82mXefG
|
Will the Washington, DC Metropolitan area get hit by a nuclear weapon of any sort before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-16T23:00:14
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T22:47:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cvDZKUNTbMBpRj98KA0a
|
Will a team from the Eastern Conference win the 2023/24 Stanley Cup?
|
Will a team from the Eastern Conference win the 2023/24 Stanley Cup NHL playoffs?
Resolves YES if a team from the Eastern Conference wins the cup
Resolves NO if a team from the Western Conference wins
Resolves when the final game is played, date TBD.
|
2023-10-16T21:41:59
|
2024-06-24T19:54:31
|
2024-06-24T19:54:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cQy4csaYIcfbyXhJ5o13
|
Will Donald Trump be the GOP nominee for President in 2024?
|
Trump v. the field. Question closes at the end of the GOP convention.
|
2023-10-16T21:40:10
|
2024-07-22T23:59:00
|
2024-07-23T15:21:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5LEJtIsiXkLMzJkKkYxK
|
Will Truth Social ban Joe Biden's account by the end of 2023?
|
Joe Biden (and team) joined Donald Trump's social media platform, Truth Social, on October 16th. Will Truth Social ban or forcibly remove his account (username @BidenHQ) before January 1st, 2024?
Resolves YES if:
the social media account is banned or removed,
and confirmed by an official Truth Social statement,
or confirmed by at least two reputable news sources (Associated Press, NYT, WaPo, etc).
Resolves NO if:
the account is still active on January 1st, 2024,
or the Biden team willingly closes / deactivates / deletes the account.
Resolves N/A if:
the account disappears before end of the year,
without a statement by Truth Social,
and the Biden team claims the account was banned or forcibly removed,
but no reputable news sources confirm those claims by end of the year.
@BidenHQ's first post:
[image]
|
2023-10-16T20:51:36
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:16:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-213LysDXid6K8TuPKN82
|
Will the Lakers win 46 or more games in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-16T19:35:27
|
2024-04-12T21:30:17
|
2024-04-12T21:30:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lz04km1aY4u5WFiZEm7f
|
Will the Australian Official Cash Rate be increased when the RBA Board Meets on the 7th of November
|
If after the Reserve Bank of Australia Board meets on 7th of November 2023 the official cash rate is more than 4.10%.
|
2023-10-16T19:16:41
|
2023-11-06T22:11:56
|
2023-11-06T22:11:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Jt6qTqGwNRxAIJVorTaY
|
Will the actors (SAG-AFTRA) strike end before December 1, 2023?
|
Resolves to a YES if SAG-AFTRA and the AMPTP reach an agreement by 11:59pm PST on November 30th, 2023.
[image]
|
2023-10-16T18:35:19
|
2023-11-11T14:30:44
|
2023-11-11T14:30:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5PUtgAEaM65iNvDvq0sY
|
Biden visits Gaza by end 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-16T18:24:19
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:24:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dIHzGFaBSDWPIN8fMxD3
|
Will Gaza be de facto controlled by Israel at the end of 2024?
|
Same market but with resolution at the end of 2023:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoaoPedroSantos/will-gaza-be-de-facto-controled-by?r=Sm9hb1BlZHJvU2FudG9z)
Gaza is currently, in a "de facto" sense, governed by Hamas. The organization's foreign policy has led to blockades by all neighboring countries. Given this situation as my baseline perspective, I intend to evaluate the market based on Israel meeting most of the criteria in the list below by the end of the year, or other indications that would lead a reasonable person to infer that Israel as complete control over the territory. I will employ my own judgment, supplemented by input from other stakeholders, in cases where there is ambiguity.
This list was added here to elucidate some people who were arguing that israel already had control of Gaza at the begining of the conflict. It as generated lots of controversy and apprehension in the betters. It serves as a guide and not as a checkbox I will be strictly following at resolution time. if there is still something I should further clarify please add some more comments. I am trying to go by some sort of common sense definition of political (not only military) control, including being able to defend and provide for the population in an organized and CONTROLLED faction.
"De Facto" Control Over a Territory implies:
1) Governance and Legal Systems: The ability to make and enforce laws [while allowing citizen participation in decision-making processes (this is optional)].
2) Security and Border Management: Ensuring internal safety and defending against external threats, while regulating who comes in and out of the territory.
3) Public Services and Utilities: Providing essential services like healthcare, education, and utilities such as water and electricity.
4) Economic Oversight: Control over financial systems, including tax collection and monetary policy.
5) International and Environmental Relations: Maintaining international relationships, disaster preparedness, and resource management.
Possibilities that have generated confusion and their resolution:
1) Distopic military dictatorship style control, resolves YES.
In this case criteria only the citizen participation section of criteria 1 would not be enforced.
2) Terror attacks by Hamaz are happening in a otherwhise controlled territory, resolves YES
In this case the internal safety section of criteria 2 would be lacking but everything else would still lead me to resolve it as YES.
3) Hamaz having a section of Gazan territory still in its control, resolves NO.
4) Population self governing (with or without IDF present), resolves NO.
5) Population in anarchy (with or without IDF present), resolves NO.
Also I should refer that at the end I will look for information on wikipedia, major news outlets and other similar reputable sources to make my decision. I will also take into consideration market discussions in case of possible ambiguities.
|
2023-10-16T17:20:50
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-06T16:32:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LZwuP0BeHoed5e7UP2SK
|
Will BTC close higher this week (Oct 16th - Oct 23rd) than last week (Oct 9th - Oct 16th)?
|
The market will be resolved based on Yahoo's close price.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
[link preview]
|
2023-10-16T16:36:18
|
2023-10-23T15:00:00
|
2023-10-23T17:23:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lEUtaxfJIUj6GMJcqsyh
|
Will Victor Wembanyama get injured in one of his first 8 regular season games?
|
yes, eight.
|
2023-10-16T14:56:59
|
2023-11-08T14:59:00
|
2023-11-08T15:33:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jkROOhDIvVBIwXyBvmBb
|
Will RFK Jr. get above 5% in the 2024 Presidential election?
|
This is a question on whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will get at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential general election. We'll round to the nearest 100th of a percent.
|
2023-10-16T14:30:27
|
2024-12-23T20:59:00
|
2024-12-28T08:38:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iAXcOKgvtZjmFCoKVBK6
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 17 than it closed on October 16?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2500
2 1750
3 1250
4 750
5 500
Good luck forecasting!
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-10-16T13:57:33
|
2023-10-17T11:00:00
|
2023-10-17T13:07:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xK3RwWvBwRG1MIgkDwJr
|
Will RFK Jr be assassinated before the 2024 election
|
Any death is negative but with the family history, they know it more than most. Will RFK Jr make it until the election?
|
2023-10-16T12:09:50
|
2024-11-06T17:14:54
|
2024-11-06T17:14:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h7xUOMa2TTqbCfTMXNuS
|
Will the IDF do a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip in 2023?
|
Spirit of the question: A ground offensive is a large, coordinated military action intended to assert control over a piece of territory using ground troops. In other words, troops should enter with the intention of staying there, as opposed to passing through ephemerally. Raids, which by nature aren't intended to hold territory, don't count.
Resolution criteria:
If the IDF declares that they have begun a "ground offensive," "ground attack," "land attack," "ground invasion," or an arrangement of these words with an identical meaning, resolves YES. The announcement may come from an IDF Twitter account, in a press release, or in a quote to a news outlet.
If the IDF does not declare a ground offensive explicitly, I will look at international English news outlets. If 4 of the following websites publish an online article saying that Israel has begun a ground offensive, resolves YES:
bbc.com
washingtonpost.com
apnews.com
reuters.com
nytimes.com
npr.com
Otherwise, resolves NO at the end of 2023.
|
2023-10-16T11:10:24
|
2023-11-08T12:24:27
|
2023-11-08T12:24:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2B2AJ8MZJxR5VDL1Bx9V
|
Will Taylor Swift attend the Super Bowl?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-16T10:36:12
|
2024-02-11T13:30:30
|
2024-02-11T13:30:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rvXgtls0zIOwPygGEhwl
|
Will Biden visit Israel by end of week?
|
If U.S. President Biden visits Israel between October 16 and October 22, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (UTC + 3), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Biden physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Biden enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Biden or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), and official information from Israel (e.g. https://twitter.com/Israel); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2023-10-16T10:28:44
|
2023-10-18T01:24:56
|
2023-10-18T01:24:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AF4M6TR2pwVh5Sy3WtVb
|
Will Mitch McConnell freeze again before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-16T10:17:30
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T09:51:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LqYCAJ8oKVLw2ZqWZ3b6
|
Will Donald Trump violate any judge’s gag orders in the next 30 days?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-16T10:05:38
|
2023-10-20T13:43:07
|
2023-10-20T13:43:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lm4NTQBhe3l4nNBO2k7h
|
Will Israel bomb civilian infrastructure in Lebanon in October?
|
Will resolve to YES if the IDF bombs CIVILIAN targets including: bridge, road, port, airport, power plant, water plant, telecommunication towers, residential buildings. This will resolve to YES even if the intended target was military (e.g. bomb Hizbollah HQ in a residential neighborhood)
|
2023-10-16T09:39:53
|
2023-10-26T15:18:01
|
2023-10-26T15:18:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ug0C65CaL8xayHa2u4th
|
Will Venezuela have free elections in 2024?
|
America is expected to announce a deal where they lift sanctions and in exchange, they allow free elections.
If the opposition is elected, this market resolves to YES.
If the international consensus of observers, including the Organization of American States, as described by the mainstream media (The Economist, NYT...) say they consider the election was fair and nonetheless socialism won, this market resolves to YES.
Otherwise this market resolves to NO.
I won't bet. This market will require judgment.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-venezuela-announce-oil-sanctions-deal-tuesday-report-2023-10-16/
[link preview]
|
2023-10-16T09:17:40
|
2024-07-31T05:41:54
|
2024-07-31T05:41:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ozDX106UOazke1QQS5eL
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will USC defeat California?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, October 28, 2023 - 1:00 PM PDT
California Memorial Stadium - Berkeley, California
Week 9 Pac-12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utep-defeat-arizon-9b78050a21ab
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-state-d
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-califor (this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-colorado-defeat-uc
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-utah
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-defeat-1c1e7bccb46b
|
2023-10-16T09:06:10
|
2023-10-28T17:30:00
|
2023-10-28T18:58:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TLnZkAuaypjx2RMmJmZj
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Duke defeat Louisville?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, October 28, 2023 - TBD
Cardinal Stadium - Louisville, Kentucky
|
2023-10-16T09:04:26
|
2023-10-28T16:30:00
|
2023-10-28T16:31:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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