Datasets:
collingray
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forecasting

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mani-0VniWc2mTe7FkJnoiTGw
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Colorado defeat UCLA?
Kickoff: Saturday, October 28, 2023 - 4:30 PM PDT Rose Bowl - Pasadena, California Week 9 Pac-12 games: @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utep-defeat-arizon-9b78050a21ab @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-state-d @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-califor @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-colorado-defeat-uc (this market) @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-utah @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-defeat-1c1e7bccb46b
2023-10-16T08:54:01
2023-10-28T20:30:00
2023-10-28T21:22:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jghsbEGMKtbgAItJbrP1
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Oregon defeat Utah?
Kickoff: Saturday, October 28, 2023 - 1:30 PM MDT Rice-Eccles Stadium - Salt Lake City, Utah Week 9 Pac-12 games: @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utep-defeat-arizon-9b78050a21ab @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-state-d @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-califor @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-colorado-defeat-uc @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-utah (this market) @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-defeat-1c1e7bccb46b
2023-10-16T08:48:31
2023-10-28T16:30:00
2023-10-28T16:33:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EJSJG0SwVuXk97XGhpYT
Will a uk general election be called in the latter six months of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-16T08:46:40
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2024-12-31T15:22:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-woKcrIgbowIaFUH8Cg26
Will a uk general election be called in the first six months of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-16T08:45:17
2024-05-29T14:06:13
2024-05-29T14:06:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1H6VAlRSIf4FMz9lHZ1I
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $460 per share on October 20, 2023?
Another weekly prediction for NVDA. Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $460 USD on the closing price of 20 of October, 2023. Any moves above $460 USD during the week will not count towards this market. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ [link preview]
2023-10-16T08:15:15
2023-10-21T01:38:50
2023-10-21T01:38:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z92ALJn47aDXZROqiO90
Will a generative Al media company be investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit? (SoAIR'23)
The 2023 Annual State of AI Report from Air Street Capital (https://www.stateof.ai/) offers the following prediction for the next 12 months: "A generative Al media company is investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit." This resolves to YES if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was true. This resolves to NO if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was false. This resolves to N/A if the report marks this as ambiguous. I will resolve this early if the market is >95% or <5%, and I agree that the answer is sufficiently clear. I would interpret investigation here as a government investigation, but I will grade based on the evaluation of the 2024 report if one is issued by EOY (with right to overrule if and only if I decide their resolution was completely unreasonable). [link preview]
2023-10-16T07:51:07
2024-11-09T17:12:43
2024-11-09T17:12:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CUW4jWnZzB1dClAxyOoj
State of AI Report '23 predictions: Will a Hollywood-grade production make use of generative AI for visual effects?
In the annual state of AI report, this is the first prediction: "A Hollywood-grade production makes use of generative AI for visual effects." This resolves to YES if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was true. This resolves to NO if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was false. This resolves to N/A if the report marks this as ambiguous. I will resolve this early if the market is >95% and I believe we have a clear example of such a production, but since we do not know when the report comes out we cannot resolve to NO early. I would interpret this wording as requiring full video effects, not merely images, and that it be used extensively not only in 1-2 small places, but will bow to their interpretation and grading barring, unless they fail to make an explicit judgment in the '24 report (or fail to issue the '24 report by EOY '24). Report can be found here: https://www.stateof.ai/ [link preview]
2023-10-16T07:43:06
2024-10-10T10:36:54
2024-10-10T10:36:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fwQNMlazmftom18kfiAC
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 900 goals before he retires?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-16T07:32:03
2024-09-05T12:34:32
2024-09-05T12:34:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8PXqbfVFuUPB2yhScIDy
Will England beat Italy? ⚽ UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifiers
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-16T06:49:46
2023-10-17T13:40:41
2023-10-17T13:40:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vKW9DGcIKEPYToeioeAl
SUPER TUESDAY (3/5/2024) - Will trump win 11 or more of the 15 states?
SUPER TUESDAY (3/5/2024) - Will trump win more than 11 or more of the 15 states? Republican primary Super Tuesday states: Alabama Alaska Arkansas California Colorado Maine Massachusetts Minnesota North Carolina Oklahoma Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia
2023-10-16T06:18:59
2024-03-04T20:59:00
2024-03-05T20:41:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8an4Fzp3uRcc1JTa50MC
Will President Biden travel to Israel in October of 2023?
[image]This market resolves YES upon reliable media* and/or official White House reports that President Biden was in Israel (or Israeli Occupied Territories) at any point between the launch of this market and 11:59 pm (23:59) local Israeli time (IST) on October 31st, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO. For the purposes of this market, a Biden visit to an Israeli embassy or consulate will NOT cause the market to resolve YES. *Reliable Media Souces For This Market = BBC News, NYTimes, CNN, Fox News, AP, Reuters, Haaretz, Times of Israel, WSJ
2023-10-16T05:04:49
2023-10-18T05:02:30
2023-10-18T05:02:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2ODTlUgVKiZQ9bBn1PIi
Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 110 against the USD before the end of January 2024?
Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 110 is enough. The current spot price (16 Oct 2023) is around 97.5 against the USD (the higher the fx rate, the weaker the Ruble).
2023-10-16T02:33:18
2024-02-01T14:59:00
2024-02-02T06:17:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gzpXGHasG7hqsN8FtTdL
NBA (Oct 26, 2023): Will the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Philadelphia 76ers?
The game will take place at 4:30pm PDT on October 26, 2023. A game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game. One reason to bet on _this_ market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well. This is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the 50M market cost).
2023-10-15T22:27:29
2023-10-26T19:19:21
2023-10-26T19:19:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gTUUAmy9kJMtlne1l1y3
Will Donald Trump send another tweet in 2023?
Since being allowed to come back to the platform formerly known as twitter, former U.S. President Donald Trump has sent one tweet, the day he got his first mugshot, in order to raise funds from the event. Will he tweet/send a message on X from his @realdonaldtrump account in 2023? This question will resolve as "YES" if any message, of any sort is sent from @realdonaldtrump on the X platform by 12-31-2023 11:59:59 pm EST and resolve as "NO" otherwise. Truth Social and other social media platforms do not count, this is for X, the platform formerly know as twitter, only.
2023-10-15T21:45:41
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T08:04:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n4mNfG4YG86M2TM9rrV7
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister through the end of 2023?
Another member of Knesset must assume the post of Prime Minister for Netanyahu to be considered officially ousted. Market resolves upon this realization, or on Jan. 1, 2024 (Israel time).
2023-10-15T21:42:30
2023-12-31T22:59:00
2024-01-01T16:01:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NRsphAMrQMQBHqAradgD
Will Taylor Swift come out as a member of the LGBTQIA+ community before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T21:16:53
2025-01-01T23:59:00
2025-01-02T14:33:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WivsIcLV1uD9csPUoIm1
Will Aaron Rodgers return to play for the Jets by the end of this year's regular season? (1000 Mana Subsidy)
"Play" will be defined as participating in at least one snap in a regular season game.
2023-10-15T19:29:17
2024-01-07T23:59:00
2024-01-08T11:30:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8dFHa0CqDyZfX0pDZMT6
Will the Golden State Warriors win 45 or more games in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T19:21:31
2024-04-11T21:44:16
2024-04-11T21:44:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Gp9p5mLKHVzZziZTth83
Apple announces new iPads this week
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T19:12:28
2023-10-20T16:02:50
2023-10-20T16:02:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dIopXO4pWSUqXWEAqksD
Will the SAG-AFTRA strike end before 12/1/23?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T18:55:28
2023-11-08T18:35:08
2023-11-08T18:35:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GMkEl3RUxgVdp2eMKLTv
Will George Santos serve a full term in office?
Will the republican representitive George Santos serve out a full term in office, or will he be forced to leave office through a resignation, expulsion, or conviction?
2023-10-15T18:51:04
2023-12-01T14:27:31
2023-12-01T14:27:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Q5vPwwqmervgQ8qWRk0y
Will any NFL team go undefeated within their division during the 2023-2024 regular season?
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/ [link preview]
2023-10-15T18:45:02
2024-01-07T20:09:55
2024-01-07T20:09:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2PYLAywbB4qna411zlF8
Will Virginia flip the major party from Republican to Democrat in the House of Delegates in the 2023 election?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_House_of_Delegates
2023-10-15T18:15:36
2023-11-07T20:59:00
2023-11-07T22:17:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YfMppihOT5ZNTQcE09md
Will the US military get involved in the Israel-Hamas war in 2023?
Resolves YES if US forces get involved in combat operations against Hamas or any other forces that join the war against Israel.
2023-10-15T17:30:55
2024-01-01T23:59:00
2024-01-03T23:13:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jKITV1MJRiRFGPMJewTX
Will the Texas Rangers win the AL Championship?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T16:00:26
2023-11-01T14:35:14
2023-11-01T14:35:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SFBDOB8dsJ43Dkw82UZK
Will the Rugby World Cup final be South Africa vs New Zealand?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T15:26:07
2023-10-21T20:46:44
2023-10-21T20:46:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NWbQGCySDZuz4u1IxZOt
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #2 Michigan beat Michigan State?
2023-10-21 at 7:30 PM ET in East Lansing, MI. Line: Michigan St +25.
2023-10-15T15:07:53
2023-10-21T19:47:24
2023-10-21T19:47:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TTzbBVr9d4NSdSl66N0p
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #13 Ole Miss beat Auburn?
2023-10-21 at 7 PM ET in Auburn, AL. Line: Auburn +5.5.
2023-10-15T15:04:25
2023-10-21T19:38:55
2023-10-21T19:38:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tVYNbQ7ICLUjYT5NkwYL
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #17 Tennessee beat #11 Alabama?
2023-10-21 at 3:30 PM ET in Tuscaloosa, AL. Line: Alabama -9.
2023-10-15T14:57:49
2023-10-21T16:10:01
2023-10-21T16:10:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cwEjVuNXscUDu5GICqzO
South Africa will defeat England in their Rugby World Cup 2023 semi final
Resolves YES if South Africa defeat England in their semi final match at Rugby World Cup 2023 Otherwise resolves NO
2023-10-15T14:23:13
2023-10-21T13:53:57
2023-10-21T13:53:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Sz45qd1aiu0mpBmaSXqe
Will South Africa beat England in the semi finals Rugby World Cup?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
2023-10-15T14:03:46
2023-10-21T13:54:34
2023-10-21T13:54:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iYiXtLNzMEjZ9mfefUv4
Will AGI Exist Before Tuesday, October 15, 2024
David Shapiro, YouTuber and LLM prompting enthusiast, has predicted AGI will exist before October 15, 2024. This market exists to record and track this prediction. The prediction was made in this video: https://youtu.be/M5eQwl4YmGU?si I have set a calendar alert and shedualed email instructing future me to resolve this market as true if this linked Metaculus question resolves to a date before Tuesday, October 16, 2024: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ In the event I am murderd by an AGI, I request said AGI resolve this true.
2023-10-15T13:42:06
2024-10-15T13:22:44
2024-10-15T13:22:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LgoGVx3ErpZUwhsSQDKv
Will a terror attack occur on United States soil in relation to the Hamas-Israel war?
I will resolve as YES if several major news outlets such as AP, ABC, CNN, etc. categorize the act of violence as a terror attack. U.S. soil is defined as within the United States of America.
2023-10-15T11:33:11
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T13:21:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7Ir6SCyODgFobCLjDyH5
Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defence before 2024?
There are a lot of posts about the system and claims that it will be deployed soon or even sooner. But no evidence of operation presented so far. The market resolves YES on a successful interception documented, not just announced. Although even an isolated deployment would suffice.
2023-10-15T11:29:25
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2023-12-31T23:45:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xOK30mJ5DZOXDutaMtsZ
[Metaculus] Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?
Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that there have been 400 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah. This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
2023-10-15T10:13:20
2024-01-02T06:00:00
2024-01-02T08:13:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-R72ZwQBv1JVwFW8y26tF
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI on October 20?
Shorter term version of @/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order Resolution follows the parent Version for all of Octorber: @/Ernie/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-135d1b50792d Version for all of November: @/StrayClimb/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-8923eba995e9
2023-10-15T08:42:56
2023-10-20T23:59:00
2023-10-21T06:11:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uSr1eDOefOY4Rg3hC1SX
Will Bitcoin exceed 100,000 USD In 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T07:57:16
2024-12-05T09:10:38
2024-12-05T09:10:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UfG9SCeO6ZK8lbHgMPQm
Will the 49ers go 20-0 this season?
San Francisco 49ers go 17-0 in the regular season and then their Divisional playoff game, the NFC Championship game, and the Super Bowl.
2023-10-15T07:38:08
2023-10-23T06:15:14
2023-10-23T06:15:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LjKuyh0vRXbPePBdzqKZ
Will France beat South Africa in the quarter final of the Rugby World Cup?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-15T06:44:13
2023-10-15T14:28:15
2023-10-15T14:28:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-twxL4Eu6lMloQedRKQji
Will marijuanna be removed from the Schedule I drug list before June 30, 2024?
On August 30, 2023 the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced that it would recommend moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III.
2023-10-15T06:30:11
2024-06-29T20:59:00
2024-06-30T11:35:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JZKMhSsaqhjLfqEjfCba
Will a manned aircraft be shot down over the Middle East by the end of the year?
This market will resolve yes if a manned aircraft of any type is shot down in relation to the conflict in the Middle East before 31st December 2023.
2023-10-15T01:59:51
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-10T03:11:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vQNwkXqkw93PKAu4mgQ0
The men's official marathon world record time will be under 2 hours by the end of 2024
Kenyan Kelvin Kiptum set a world record for men of 2:00:35 on October 8, 2023, at the 2023 Chicago Marathon
2023-10-15T00:57:04
2024-12-31T04:59:00
2024-12-31T10:43:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pNw5TRuIWr79HipvX4m5
Will Mrbeast reach 210 milion subscribers until 2024?
I will resolve this market YES if at any time until 2024 he reach 210 milion subscribers on youtube. Otherwise I will resolve this market NO. https://youtube.com/@MrBeast And checkout these questions: (https://manifold.markets/embed/210psc/will-mrbeast-reach-209-milion-subsc)[markets]
2023-10-15T00:00:06
2023-11-12T10:33:41
2023-11-12T10:33:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qoSt4tE290vsmYA6wZoF
Will Civilization VII be released in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T22:10:44
2025-01-01T23:59:00
2025-01-10T14:55:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Sjrh5IsDSuRA5F7sfwiN
Will the Australia make the semi finals of the 2023 Cricket World Cup?
Australia are currently not looking good. But they still maybe able to get over the line.
2023-10-14T22:00:28
2023-11-07T09:02:44
2023-11-07T09:02:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1WxePcaSoYs7WxMBcBtm
Will any refugees be allowed to leave Gaza by the end of October?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T21:46:31
2023-11-07T18:36:19
2023-11-07T18:36:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MIj53HJn8HPsKQN7WxCj
Will any Palestinian-American be allowed to leave Gaza by October 31st?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/14/gaza-americans-rafah-border/ Talks disolved. Egypt wanted to send aid with the retrieval of an estimated 600 Palestinian-Americans in Gaza. They were planning within a short window but Israel axed it to not allow aid. If ANY of these people are allowed to leave (meaning 1 or more) by October 31st, this market resolves as YES.
2023-10-14T21:36:31
2023-10-31T20:59:00
2023-10-31T21:08:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KarTH2pv9vW3PVXsK8VW
Will Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) be the prime minister of Israel at the end of 2024
Following the recent conflict with Hamas, many Israelies question Bibi's leadership and might not elect him again. That might lead to earlier elections and he might not be elected again, or even resign
2023-10-14T21:02:36
2025-01-01T13:59:00
2025-01-01T15:28:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YriPO6291aGF6PCejIWy
The next speaker of the House will be elected via a bipartisan coalition of Democrats and Republicans.
Resolves to YES if the speaker is elected with more than 0 Democratic votes. Closes as soon as a speaker is elected, or if more than 30 days elapse resolves to NO.
2023-10-14T19:15:09
2023-10-25T12:47:13
2023-10-25T12:47:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kRJ7MXCZ49C089ekz237
Will there be a US House Speaker by Friday 20th October 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T18:09:45
2023-10-20T20:59:00
2023-10-20T21:32:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pH2MYIvOKBvychdkOjpn
Will Ohio vote to legalize marijuana in November 2023?
Ohio issue 2 will be voted on November 7, 2023 to legalize marijuana.
2023-10-14T16:52:44
2023-11-08T02:54:31
2023-11-08T02:54:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4h7FLzqLjlO14pvgFmpp
New Zealand will defeat Argentina in their Rugby World Cup 2023 semi final
Resolves YES if the All Blacks (New Zealand) defeat Los Pumas (Argentina) in their Rugby World Cup 2023 semi final. Otherwise resolves NO
2023-10-14T15:20:51
2023-10-20T13:58:45
2023-10-20T13:58:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BGLmBL5ljxHMfVAYC0rZ
Will Benjamin Netanyahu experience an assassination attempt before the end of the year?
For yes, Israeli intelligence must confirm that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu experienced an assassination attempt between October 14th and December 31st of this year, regardless of his survival. Any previous assassination attempt committed before October 14th, 2023, that is brought to light will not be counted.
2023-10-14T14:37:18
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T17:43:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jb1hrPIAtjd33FPCownI
Will we see proof of life on Mars by Halloween 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T13:13:36
2023-10-31T21:59:00
2023-11-01T05:06:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v0K2UOwaSnFpJyiAZ05r
Will Bill Belichick get fired by the end of the NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T12:48:17
2024-01-11T06:05:36
2024-01-11T06:05:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dDzpt1nieXAE7uU5WJi5
Will the US pass a Full Budget before 2025?
During the debate before the vote to remove McCarthy as Speaker of the House, Gaetz made a big stink about perpetually using CRs and omnibus appropriation bills to fund the government, rather than passing a full budget. The current CR expires November 17th. Gaetz seems to really want to stop using the CR or omnibus appropriation bill and return to funding the government via a full budget. I guess he would make it a requirement for any speaker candidate. A full budget hasn't passed since 1997. Will Gaetz get his wish? Resolves YES if the US passes a full budget to fund the government before 2025. Here are the definitions for each according to ChatGPT and what I'll use to resolve this market: A full budget process involves passing a budget resolution followed by 12 individual appropriations bills, each funding different parts of the government. These bills go through committee reviews, amendments, and votes in both the House and Senate. Continuing resolutions (CRs) are temporary measures that extend funding at current or specified levels for a set period, bypassing the detailed review process. Omnibus bills combine multiple appropriations bills into one larger bill, which is negotiated and passed as a single package.
2023-10-14T12:40:00
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T15:15:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WtE2klkdBI0MmNY0DceQ
Will Bitcoin reach 38000 in 2023?
Bitcoin is ranging. Will it break out?
2023-10-14T12:14:02
2023-11-24T10:38:56
2023-11-24T10:38:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-P2i307Kdt2rNZuRB1wI8
Will Sergio Perez be 2nd in the 2023 world championship?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T12:07:31
2023-11-19T04:50:29
2023-11-19T04:50:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1QPr7YvDLZg7fXf9lLsg
Will Gaza be de facto controlled by Israel at the end of 2023? (Simpler criteria)
"Controlled" in the common sense meaning: it simply means that Israel is the entity with the monopoly on the legitimate use of force. This does not mean there are no instances of violence breaking out, it means Israel unlike Hamas are the ones calling the shots and having a presence on the ground. There are no requirements for community participation, voting, or anything of that nature. It's about control and possession of territory.
2023-10-14T11:29:10
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T14:02:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qcnE5YNDXgI01C4lqQQv
Will Egypt's President, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, win re-election in December with 95% of the vote?
A presidential election is set to be held in Egypt for 10th to 12th December 2023. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is the Egyptian military's preferred candidate and won the previous two elections with the following vote shares: 2014: 96.91% 2018: 97.08% Resolves according to whether el-Sisi is recorded as having received 95% of the vote share or more (which = YES) on Wikipedia's 2023 Egyptian presidential election page. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-voter-turnout-in-egypts-decemb)
2023-10-14T10:55:35
2023-12-19T10:39:45
2023-12-19T10:39:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JvC7AipOv8f37qGAh9OO
Will congress pass more Ukraine aid before the end of the year?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T10:10:57
2023-12-20T07:40:20
2023-12-20T07:40:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MQoFBz3U5rT5xEIf38fZ
Will there be 500 fatalities during Israel–Hezbollah confrontations by 13 April 2024?
Will resolve according to ACLED data on the number of fatalities during confrontations between Hezbollah and the military forces of Israel and/or Israeli civilians, starting from 7 October 2023 and ending 13 April 2024 (inclusive). From here: [link preview]
2023-10-14T09:54:15
2024-04-13T15:59:00
2024-04-24T03:43:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-R7wcSDC9iNFSZBWV2Sog
Ohio will vote to legalize abortion November 2023
Ohio is holding an election poll November 7, 2023 to legalize abortion.
2023-10-14T09:12:06
2023-11-08T02:54:43
2023-11-08T02:54:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YGEn632efU3XGmeahkMh
Will the SEC approve any Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024?
A Bitcoin ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, would be a financial product that lets people invest in Bitcoin without having to buy and store the actual digital currency. Instead, they'd be buying shares of the ETF, much like they might buy shares of a stock or another fund. A "spot" ETF, specifically, would be based on the current, or "spot," price of Bitcoin, rather than future prices. If the SEC were to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF, it would be a big deal for several reasons. Firstly, it would signal a certain level of trust and acceptance of the bitcoin world by a major regulatory body. Secondly, it could make it easier and potentially more appealing for everyday investors to get involved in Bitcoin, as they wouldn't need to deal with the complexities of owning and storing the cryptocurrency themselves. By today, several financial institutions (BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, and WisdomTree....) have applied to SEC for having their Bitcoin ETF publicly listed on American exchanges. None so far has been accepted. Will it happen in 2024? /PS If there is an ETF accepted in 2023, we would still wait for another one to happen in 2024 (https://manifold.markets/embed/LightningBee/will-the-sec-approve-any-bitcoin-sp)
2023-10-14T09:07:03
2024-01-12T09:03:12
2024-01-12T09:03:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-l7DQHbuWSCi0INlIWEy9
Will Sam Bankman-Fried take the stand in his current trial?
Ignoring any further trials or mistrails. If the current trial has him testify, YES, otherwise NO.
2023-10-14T09:01:57
2023-10-27T11:33:28
2023-10-27T11:33:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QHXjQVbwNvYLNI6tuj2h
Will more than 100 hostages in Gaza be freed by end of the year?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T08:58:02
2023-11-30T14:37:34
2023-11-30T14:37:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vYtOCXjHIGMIDTPsAKbn
Will more than 50 hostages in Gaza be freed by end of the year?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T08:57:39
2023-11-26T12:35:08
2023-11-26T12:35:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4m5Ke4YJvXoEvv3OeInl
Will at least 100k Palestinians emigrate from the Gaza strip by EOY 2024?
Population there is approx 2m (2023) This is about whether 100k+ people previously living there are reported to have emigrated to another country to live (hence, the population would have decreased) at one time. It's about whether it happens at any point until EOY 2024.
2023-10-14T08:49:45
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-03T10:24:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cDkNVHtGj2IUsir0L7Co
Will IDF occupy any part of Lebanon by the end of the year?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T08:40:48
2023-12-31T16:48:54
2023-12-31T16:48:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gYiITDP5yHu569CBahc8
If SBF is convicted of a felony, will crypto prices drop the following day?
Tracks the crypto market cap from CMC(coinmarketcap) 24h following his convinction. If he isn't convicted of a felony (by 2025, Jan 1), resolves as N/A.
2023-10-14T07:18:00
2023-11-03T17:15:24
2023-11-03T17:15:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zFiNKZA5P5w545ywXB86
Will the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Giants in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Bills win No - Giants win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T07:00:38
2023-10-15T20:37:28
2023-10-15T20:37:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hTbFB47w4Mj2UOKXdr9i
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Detroit Lions in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Buccaneers win No - Lions win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:59:42
2023-10-15T16:26:14
2023-10-15T16:26:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CXdqSyi1zsqdC87SzkUD
Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Rams win No - Cardinals win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:58:36
2023-10-15T16:28:12
2023-10-15T16:28:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yozLelhJcbuKJliGZnlI
Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the New England Patriots in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Raiders win No - Patriots win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:57:26
2023-10-15T16:25:40
2023-10-15T16:25:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DjWjfjo3kXhqSLd79tkW
Will the Houston Texans beat the New Orleans Saints in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Texans win No - Saints win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:56:23
2023-10-15T13:06:52
2023-10-15T13:07:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EjFaBb9NfWdq80c3r51F
Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Carolina Panthers in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Dolphins win No - Panthers win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:54:02
2023-10-15T13:05:10
2023-10-15T13:05:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-inVVPUyYdcLjw8lBP0jv
Will the Cleveland Browns beat the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Browns win No - 49ers win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:52:44
2023-10-15T13:32:40
2023-10-15T13:33:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kj0PgHuHWnPxgem9UTxU
Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Seattle Seahawks in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Bengals win No - Seahawks win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:51:28
2023-10-15T12:55:19
2023-10-15T12:55:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eSRUqJqvnJcmJlEBOgmB
Will the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Bears win No - Vikings win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:50:18
2023-10-15T12:58:43
2023-10-15T12:58:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-shcLOQX8coO9TmYeAZ3F
Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Washington Commanders in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Falcons win No - Commanders win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:49:21
2023-10-15T12:58:17
2023-10-15T12:58:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BIJwQJX0a4rWtGJ4smLp
Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Titans win No -Ravens win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:48:06
2023-10-15T09:40:58
2023-10-15T09:41:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ome1UiPd5zQs3YbSB8uQ
Will the New York Jets beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Jets win No - Eagles win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-14T06:46:02
2023-10-15T16:37:44
2023-10-15T16:37:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1qWwwp0xqprRqNkOATZ6
Will GitHub have any incident on October 16th 2023?
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-10-16 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC. Will resolve to NO otherwise. Resolution times: If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe. If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
2023-10-14T06:45:06
2023-10-16T17:00:00
2023-10-16T18:24:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tpbd6XCEWODUuwsbUbeg
Will any Republican vote for Hakeem Jeffries for Speaker of the House?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T05:14:54
2023-10-25T10:52:52
2023-10-25T10:52:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oUa5kEWBvRIHViuDerSK
Will Brent crude oil prices hit $100 in 2023?
Current spot price of oil is available here: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk [link preview]
2023-10-14T04:50:31
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T22:02:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QsSEQmBsBsxD4fg633oM
Will Elon Musk get twitter.com to redirect to x.com by 1st January 2025?
resolves on the state as of the stroke of New Year's variant of: https://manifold.markets/RobinBruce/will-twittercom-redirect-to-xcom-by-1178bf0e5d7c?r=Um9iaW5CcnVjZQ
2023-10-14T03:05:37
2024-05-16T22:30:37
2024-05-16T22:30:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mTh1IXxy17gbgfqg6ews
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Tammy strengthen into a hurricane?
Background Following the highly sheared and weakening Sean, another Cabo Verde cyclone is in the works. Invest 94L, now moving westwards, is forecast with a 60% probability to become a tropical storm within 2 days, and 80% within 7 days. [image]Its forecast path is more southerly than Sean, with a possibility that it might impact the Caribbean Antilles. [image]Several models predict favourable intensification beyond 48-72 hours, with some predicting the storm reaching hurricane strength eventually. As of October 18, 5 PM AST, 94L has strengthened into a tropical storm and has been given the name Tammy. Will Tammy / 94L reach hurricane strength? [image]Resolution Criteria Resolves YES if Tammy / 94L becomes a named storm and reaches Category 1 hurricane strength, before dissipation, extratropical transition, or merger with non-tropical fronts, according to the NHC. Resolves NO if the conditions for YES are not satisfied before dissipation, extratropical transition, or merger with non-tropical fronts. Will resolve and adjudicate based on NHC advisories. I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.
2023-10-14T02:52:55
2023-10-20T08:59:00
2023-10-20T08:59:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mVcCLKld1JoSIJZeVQ07
Will Google widely release Gemini in November 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-14T00:28:23
2023-12-01T07:56:59
2023-12-01T07:56:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YQ6pXVTuE3HsorcuLTuC
Will US military assets attempt to physically extract American hostages from Gaza?
Resolves yes when the White House debriefs the press about such a rescue attempt and resolves no when all hostages are known to be dead or freed by other means, or when March 31, 2024 passes and no rescue attempt has been made. By physcially extract, I mean with the use of force and not negotiation, bribery, or mere threat of force. The attempt does not need to be successful or to include all American hostages. I will not participate in this market. I will resolve based on the spirit of the market, e.g. yes if the CIA does it or if there is strong evidence of a failed attempt that was covered up, etc.
2023-10-13T22:47:44
2024-03-31T16:59:00
2024-04-09T20:30:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7mLWbIA3meQydTKgodB9
Will Biden state the words “ChatGPT” in the state of the union address?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-13T20:43:12
2024-03-07T20:31:25
2024-03-07T20:31:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FTtzKe0800eohXIdSYAd
Will the republican US congress elect a new speaker by the end of October?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-13T18:46:38
2023-10-25T11:10:31
2023-10-25T11:10:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HgiCzuk6BJXZYtHStHGz
Will the S&P 500 (INDEXSP: .INX) close higher on October 20th than it closed on October 13th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]
S&P 500 closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) Predictions close at 3pm ET (7pm UTC) Previous Close On 10/13/2023: [image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day. Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded) I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
2023-10-13T17:26:15
2023-10-20T12:00:00
2023-10-20T13:18:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S6kIpYOkfBLa2hclkGck
Will Jimmy Carter vote in the 2024 presidential election
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-13T17:07:06
2024-10-16T09:40:55
2024-10-16T09:40:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VUdCNE8HSchiAyQ6LcZo
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 global artist on Spotify charts for the week 13-19 October?
For the previous week Drake took #1, will Taylor take it back? https://charts.spotify.com/charts/view/artist-global-weekly/latest [link preview]
2023-10-13T16:32:02
2023-10-20T09:09:58
2023-10-20T09:09:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EZoJi90p9Rvbi1weEzVr
Will there be a major escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before 2024?
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as of 2023 has seen heightened hostilities with substantial casualties and international ramifications. The potential for further escalation remains a serious concern, with implications for regional stability and international relations. Will there be a significant escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before January 1st, 2024? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "YES" if any of the following conditions are met before January 1st, 2024: Death Toll Escalation: Definition: The cumulative, combined death toll on all sides of this conflict reaches or exceeds 100,000 individuals, only counting deaths after October 6th 2023. Verification: Verification will be obtained from cumulative figures reported by the United Nations, or the agreement of at least two independent, reputable, international news organizations. Major Outside Military Intervention: Definition: A recognized state or significant non-state military actor other than Israel or any Palestinian authority intervenes militarily in Israel, the West Bank, or the Gaza Strip. This must include one or more of the following: the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops, at least 50 air strikes, or any other military intervention that directly causes the deaths of over 250 people cumulative. Verification: Verification will be based on official government statements, reputable international news outlets, or documentation from international governmental organizations such as the United Nations. Notes: These conditions will exclude humanitarian interventions or non-military involvement by new actors. Military actions that are solely defensive in nature and do not significantly alter the balance of power or the scale of the conflict are excluded. Economic sanctions, diplomatic actions, or other non-military interventions are also excluded.
2023-10-13T14:21:13
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:49:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4QJWzGQwV54j3g6Ymfjj
Will dual-citizens in Gaza be allowed to evacuate to Egypt through certain Border Checkpoints before Israeli invasion?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-13T14:02:02
2023-11-03T12:57:27
2023-11-03T12:57:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-X2f6K1CsObnx7u3j1gJl
Will Andy Beshear (D) defeat Daniel Cameron (R) for Governor of KY in November 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-13T13:56:25
2023-11-08T04:53:24
2023-11-08T04:53:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.
2023-10-13T10:44:30
2025-01-10T04:44:47
2025-01-10T04:44:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eAiW9bGpkzd04EUiPYs8
will nasa confirm the discovery of aliens before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-13T08:39:02
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-31T23:35:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-48RCN5mnnY32r9bB6EGn
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA playoffs? 🏀
Resolves YES if the Chicago Bulls play in at least 1 game in the Eastern Conference playoffs (excluding play-in game) Playoffs start in mid April.
2023-10-13T08:20:56
2024-04-19T18:57:07
2024-04-19T18:57:07
no
MANIFOLD