id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-Pu76Dviq4en3zPBAQXXu | Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024? | To be judged as an LLM made by a Chinese organization that ties or surpasses the leading LLM by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google on the leaderboard here.
Additional Information
China is significantly investing in the development of large language models (LLMs) and is home to many AI-oriented companies and LLM application... | 2023-10-13T06:41:28 | 2024-10-16T06:29:59 | 2024-10-16T06:29:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-idMXqTbaiIsl6po4eEPe | Was the Israeli embassy worker stabbed in Beijing attacked by a PRC national? | Breaking story. Unsubstantiated but picked up by legacy media already.
Will resolve N/A if there was no attack.
If there was an attack but it wasn't a stabbing the title will update (ditto other conceivable variations)
https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1712737562853507334?s=20
Update (resolution):
I want to addr... | 2023-10-13T01:15:25 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-01-04T12:06:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IZXEPbI94T2oiTxuqrS2 | Will Israel annex North Gaza by the end of 2023? | [image][markets] | 2023-10-13T00:04:29 | 2023-12-31T13:58:52 | 2023-12-31T13:58:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qPye98aPeTg6NYnGGrSB | Will Israel annex Gaza City by the end of 2023? | [image][markets] | 2023-10-13T00:02:55 | 2023-12-31T20:48:17 | 2023-12-31T20:48:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dhAaV7MvyxE9Z3rylBcv | Will 500,000 Palestinian civilians be displaced from Gaza by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T23:58:51 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:02:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d6YM7p44OHDMALDy84ET | Will Israel annex Gaza by the end of 2024? | This question is about all five districts of Gaza.
[image][markets] | 2023-10-12T23:54:08 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T17:13:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pBNiEeyMVfnqlZmIr7Og | Will Germany ban pro-Palestine protests before November 2023? | On October 13th, France has banned all pro-Palestine demonstrations. The day before, Berlin police also banned them, citing anti-Semitism risks.
Resolves YES if Germany bans all pro-Palestine protests before November 2023. Limited bans in select cities don't count. | 2023-10-12T20:40:23 | 2023-11-01T08:59:00 | 2023-11-01T17:35:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LkKYlZLJoIcjJm45gEb5 | Will February 2024 be the hottest February on record globally? | Resolves per the global NOAA monthly report. Ends a week in to March to allow for predictions coming in before the report relase. | 2023-10-12T19:36:19 | 2024-03-14T09:49:19 | 2024-03-14T09:49:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5xFf84fNGZpy8CQK7u0o | Will January 2024 be the hottest January on record globally? | Resolves per the global NOAA monthly report. Ends a week in to Feb to allow for predictions coming in before the report relase. | 2023-10-12T19:27:23 | 2024-02-14T10:39:15 | 2024-02-14T10:39:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KZzB5FDSI9zFxP7eMMge | Will Jim Jordan be elected as house speaker by October 19? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T17:30:35 | 2023-10-19T23:59:00 | 2023-10-20T07:16:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KD6KxRUCCPJR1Q08yVBr | Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by the end of 2024? | Will resolve to YES if WeWork files for bankruptcy by the end of 2024. | 2023-10-12T17:22:30 | 2023-11-07T13:18:56 | 2023-11-07T13:18:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PH4MThj1NsJw406BlFIi | Will the US government shut down on November 17, 2023? | The current continuing resolution (CR) to keep the federal government ends on November 17. If a new CR is not pasted by November 17th then the government shuts down. | 2023-10-12T17:18:11 | 2023-11-17T08:09:44 | 2023-11-17T08:09:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AUzmvd06NrU5qxFDdM2f | Will there be widespread protests against the Netanyahu government for 10/7 by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T16:55:14 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:10:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bWFpxx9cYYHKWXp1NLek | Will there be more than 10,000 total lives lost in the Israel-Hamas conflict by the end of October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T16:49:26 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-10-31T22:10:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QH6hfZQyQUwW7kzaD7Lf | Will the conflict in Israel become multi-front by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T16:35:33 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:58:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-haoUKaAH1h7t6BKq19Ee | Will Bitcoin hit 100k before Jan 1st 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T15:54:18 | 2024-12-05T09:14:59 | 2024-12-05T09:14:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HbzEWC9PRfwb9kiqicsj | Will South Africa win both the 2023 Rugby World Cup and the 2023 Cricket World Cup? | Unlikely, but what if...? | 2023-10-12T15:47:05 | 2023-11-16T08:41:55 | 2023-11-16T08:41:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pd0IWegi1UPLODYBwaTg | Will Destiny conclude that Hasan was fake crying on Leftovers Podcast (12.10.) | Regarding this https://streamable.com/2btpam
Resolves YES if Destiny concludes that Hasan was fake crying. Resolves NO if Destiny concludes that Hasan's crying was genuine. Resolves N/A if he skips over it, does not conclude anything either way, of if it's unclear what he thinks about it.
Only streams count, not offl... | 2023-10-12T15:21:29 | 2023-10-13T12:46:14 | 2023-10-13T12:46:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pGGeBQwQNW5b2X6avUqB | Will Elon Musk appear as a guest on the Lex Fridman podcast by the end of 2023? | The podcast episode must be released, not merely recorded and unreleased. The typical release platform is Lex's podcast and that is what will be counted. It is usually also available on youtube, which counts. If Elon appears in a video on Lex's channel but it is not a podcast episode, it will not count. Only episodes a... | 2023-10-12T14:54:35 | 2023-11-09T11:27:26 | 2023-11-09T11:27:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RXwjctoaGWohwVXUW67H | Will ETH drop below $1500 in October 2023? | If, in October 2023 (GMT timezone), the low (L) of at least one 30-minute candle on Coingecko is $1500 or less, this will be resolved as YES.
An example of what you're supposed to be looking at:
[image]
| 2023-10-12T14:22:41 | 2023-11-01T03:55:25 | 2023-11-01T03:55:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kJu8Qv9mmUo8x9IFqJv2 | Will Mateusz Morawiecki be the Prime Minister of Poland on December 1? | This market will resolve to "YES" if, for at least one hour of December 1 2023, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government. | 2023-10-12T14:18:51 | 2023-12-01T10:49:26 | 2023-12-01T10:49:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ftNmlIuzkZDggED8Huqi | Will Mateusz Morawiecki be the Prime Minister of Poland on November 1? | This market will resolve to "YES" if, for at least one hour of November 1 2023, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government. | 2023-10-12T14:18:21 | 2023-11-01T15:59:00 | 2023-11-01T16:50:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6Quk1Xgni2lRJ9blGwIg | Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected in November 2024? | Election Day is November 5.
Will be N/A if Boebert is imprisoned, decides not to run or is otherwise incapable of being a member of Congress. | 2023-10-12T12:12:18 | 2024-11-04T21:00:00 | 2024-11-13T14:45:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FLsz9DQ4keFcv1UXrhlj | Will Aaron Rodgers play in another game during the 23-24 season? 🏈 | Resolves YES if Rodgers returns from IR and plays any snap(s) during the 23-24 regular or post season.
| 2023-10-12T12:07:12 | 2024-01-11T11:07:12 | 2024-01-11T11:07:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yrmBkZXh753T1I9VZV3j | Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Dec 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by December 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The "Yes" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanis... | 2023-10-12T11:07:52 | 2023-11-02T14:34:10 | 2023-11-04T10:29:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P7DEBDVy8RRFWW8DxBKf | Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The "Yes" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanis... | 2023-10-12T11:07:37 | 2023-11-02T14:33:43 | 2023-11-04T10:29:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WDgCM3JCYqQ5qDCOMhtD | Will the U.S. inflation be 3.42% or less in October 2023? | U.S. inflation from December 2022 to October 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%, 3.6997%, 3.24%
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.42% or less in October 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (308.2040104)
https://www.clevelandfed.o... | 2023-10-12T10:31:38 | 2023-11-14T06:56:41 | 2023-11-14T06:56:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JNp2T7fgWwONNQlclUpS | Will February 2024 be the hottest February on record in the US? | Resolves per NOAA monthly report. Ends a week in to March to allow for predictions coming in before the report relase. | 2023-10-12T10:09:15 | 2024-03-07T15:59:00 | 2024-03-08T08:19:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FsMbgogIrkvukNQfYARe | Will January 2024 be the hottest January on record in the US? | Resolves per NOAA monthly report. Ends a week in to Feb to allow for predictions coming in before the report release. | 2023-10-12T10:07:08 | 2024-02-07T15:59:00 | 2024-02-08T12:04:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9cjTwU9fYDOIm7msRbes | Will a new house speaker be elected in fewer than 5 votes? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T08:58:28 | 2023-10-25T14:40:40 | 2023-10-25T14:40:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xwvCiGeDsKQzQDHGHHPM | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drop out of the Presidential race before November 1, 2024. | Election Day is November 5, 2024.
Question resolves when Kennedy announces he has dropped out of the race or he is physically unable to be elected. | 2023-10-12T08:33:40 | 2024-08-29T12:30:07 | 2024-08-29T12:30:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-drcQGvXd7f8tOClLU7XE | Will a first-ever CRISPR-based gene editing therapy be approved by the FDA by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T07:06:16 | 2023-12-07T07:59:00 | 2023-12-08T14:32:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eG4ufR3gURHwjdQ5RYWs | Will any Republican member of the House switch parties by the end of October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T07:00:22 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-10-31T22:10:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PXvKi222RddmekRc7kem | Will a US aircraft carrier deployed to the eastern Mediterranean strike Israeli adversaries in this conflict? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-12T04:59:09 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:05:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hEfL9OPZfFtxkYnLTgzj | Will schools completely reopen in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa by the end of 2023? | After hearing about the Israel-Hamas Conflict, I pinged a few friends in Israel and asked if I could help. Surprisingly, one of them said that they'd benefit from the power of prediction markets!
This market resolves positive if all restrictions on educational institutions due to the Israel-Hamas 2023 Conflict are lif... | 2023-10-12T00:18:17 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-04T04:41:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fla8Hhr6h6V0w1AbZBmh | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 10th November show positive growth? | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Friday 10th November..
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (September in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution no... | 2023-10-11T22:57:20 | 2023-11-09T23:26:31 | 2023-11-09T23:26:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oR6GPax8CdWp9JCAjXW4 | Will there be a "global jihad" on Friday October 13th? | Terrorist attacks in at least three countries that are at least symbolically linked to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. | 2023-10-11T21:58:30 | 2023-10-13T20:59:00 | 2023-10-14T23:48:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4MPhJzIkdNyInxI5AObT | Will Biden visit Israel by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T21:54:43 | 2023-10-18T08:32:08 | 2023-10-18T08:32:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2StKFoqUHukF8EdJDhUk | Will any House Republicans side with the Democrats for House speaker? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T20:49:00 | 2023-10-27T22:00:57 | 2023-10-27T22:00:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UUHfQW5HFzE63yLawefU | Will the next house speaker be a democrat? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T20:48:02 | 2023-10-28T08:18:34 | 2023-10-28T08:18:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7K0VgYhR10au2FerjPcF | Will a new Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected before the end of October 18th? | Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives on 3 Oct 2023. The House was originally expected to hold an election for Speaker next Wednesday (11th of October), but after the Republican caucus nominated Steve Scalise, the chamber adjourned for the day.
Will a new Speaker be elected... | 2023-10-11T20:19:18 | 2023-10-18T21:02:32 | 2023-10-18T21:02:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yz4ZIse9H3SjqJTp2nCM | Will GTA 6 be released before June 2024? | Considering the latest game leaks and the time that has already passed from the launch of GTA 5, do you think that the game's next version will be during summer 2024? | 2023-10-11T19:59:09 | 2024-06-01T08:57:05 | 2024-06-01T08:57:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qafBISn3ewiU5ytZKG6x | Will Sweden make it into NATO before 2024? | Will Sweden convince Turkey to relinquish the veto on joinging NATO before 2024?
Resolution Criteria:
Will resolve as "Yes" if by 11:59 PM EST 31 December 2023 there is a public announcement by the alliance in the affirmative
Will resolve to "No" if criteria is not met | 2023-10-11T19:06:25 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:47:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-InM4XiXBBDYKOyxP6ENj | Will any house democrats vote for any moderate republicans for the speakership of the house? | With gridlock in the republican ranks, will some democrats vote for a more moderate candidate for speaker of the house? | 2023-10-11T18:16:15 | 2023-10-25T17:00:29 | 2023-10-25T17:00:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MPyo6PCDrdqMtxMIecoi | Will Apple release a ChatGPT/Bard competitor before May 1, 2024? | Apple is reportedly working on a "ChatGPT rival" project codenamed "Ajax" internally. Release here means an internal LLM made accessible to external consumers and developers in any shape or format. Could be an Xcode code helper, improvements to Siri, integrations to photo or notes app as long as an internally developed... | 2023-10-11T16:33:41 | 2024-05-14T03:04:34 | 2024-05-15T10:41:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VY4y16niQyfvMuDJRIxr | Will the Switch 2 be released by the end of 2024? | Resolved if released earlier | 2023-10-11T16:11:16 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-02T20:02:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WuqNvYurENj97ucNIEgw | Will there be any layoff of over 1000+ employees at any Big Tech company (Big Five) before March 1st, 2024? | Big Tech refers to Alphabet(Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. Resolved YES if layoff event confirmed in the news with over 1000+ affected. This is also a 1000+ employees at once at one company : multiple layoffs happening with more than a month in between don't count as "at once" and simultaneous layoffs at ... | 2023-10-11T15:36:26 | 2024-01-25T14:26:44 | 2024-01-25T14:26:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kLOukwxh9TU76KOsOB0Y | Will November 2023 be the hottest November on record? | As per NOAA's global report for November , will November 2023 be the hotest recorded November ? Note that this will close at the end of the month, but will only resolve once the results are offically posted.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
[link preview] | 2023-10-11T14:20:20 | 2023-11-30T20:59:00 | 2023-12-16T07:14:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-32PuQrHBaptoXvkqplvv | Will Zelenskyy visit Israel in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T13:32:40 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:54:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8M4zOQ72pXLij2nu0vFU | Will Arsenal Win The Premier League for 2023-2024 Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T13:03:03 | 2024-05-19T12:06:12 | 2024-05-19T12:06:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hY0oKEJNTP8xRvk8EVXD | Midjourney v6 comes out by the end of Nov 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T12:23:16 | 2023-11-30T23:59:00 | 2023-12-03T18:54:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kUGMH9MERhkOy5lONL5Q | Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Nov 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one American hostage currently held by Hamas is rescued by the U.S. by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A rescue is defined as a successful operation or negotiation that results in the release and safe return of an American hosta... | 2023-10-11T11:56:26 | 2023-10-22T19:04:11 | 2023-10-23T08:39:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CKmv0GJvu8q0iVOYfnTu | Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one American hostage currently held by Hamas is rescued by the U.S. by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A rescue is defined as a successful operation or negotiation that results in the release and safe return of an American hostag... | 2023-10-11T11:55:58 | 2023-10-22T19:04:07 | 2023-10-23T08:39:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EylxZ9xl4OFOaLhQ1H3t | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of X on April 13, 2024? | Linda Yaccarino is the CEO of X. If she no longer has that title on April 13, 2024, this market will resolve to NO. Otherwise, it will resolve to YES. | 2023-10-11T11:41:46 | 2024-04-13T23:59:00 | 2024-04-14T01:17:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3vSTnGYsBlrLqW1otsKz | Will Steve Scalise receive the most Speaker votes on the first ballot? | Scalise must receive a plurality of votes in the first ballot for market to resolve as YES | 2023-10-11T11:32:13 | 2023-10-17T10:39:31 | 2023-10-17T10:39:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fuKYzQBIktgpptjTyJqa | Matt Dillahunty Vs Andrew Wilson: Will Secular Humanism Beat Christianity? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/S8U34ezKvrU)Matt Dillahunty and Andrew Wilson will be debating live as part of DEBATECON 4 in Dallas, TX on Saturday, November 4th.
This market resolves to the winner of the debate as determined by a live vote of the in-person attendees.
The vote will be conducted as follows: Before the... | 2023-10-11T11:13:03 | 2023-11-04T22:59:00 | 2023-11-04T23:07:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u5TkpM4CAZHJ9A9X0ObQ | Will Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado win her election in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T11:08:49 | 2024-11-06T10:17:18 | 2024-11-06T10:17:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EiKVyMGwAXJBhbgEFe4s | Will the Boston Celtics win more games than the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T10:07:23 | 2024-03-27T08:28:28 | 2024-03-27T08:28:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m5b6DdDr80hpdS7NA9Qs | Quick one! Will the republican US congress elect a new speaker by the end of Oct. 13, 2023? | YES if there is a brand new elected speaker of the house. | 2023-10-11T09:20:43 | 2023-10-13T20:59:00 | 2023-10-14T06:10:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n4noF3Z4WQ7Bp5PtuWyw | Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Chiefs win
No - Broncos win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-10-11T09:02:01 | 2023-10-12T20:08:33 | 2023-10-12T20:09:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DURDMsxEM2Nh07RuChPP | Will Hasan or Ethan storm off OR leave the Leftovers podcast because of the Israel-Hamas discussion? | If Hasan skips the episode, it will resolve YES.
If Ethan or Hasan:
1- call an early end to the episode
2- leaves the episode early (due to discussion of the issue)
3- end or leave the podcast entirely, even temporarily
Resolves YES.
If discussion is:
1- not brought up
2- brought up then shut down to maintain a... | 2023-10-11T08:41:35 | 2023-10-13T12:47:29 | 2023-10-13T12:47:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UqOpBCwDMYUrKDyS52l3 | Will Apple stock close above $200 before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T08:12:12 | 2023-12-29T20:16:39 | 2023-12-29T20:16:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GU0Cup2AoLKuf2BB56si | Will Alexander Volkanovski defeat Islam Makhachev at UFC 294? | Volkanovski has stepped in on short notice to replace Charles Oliveira in the main event at UFC 294 against Islam Makhachev on October 21, 2023. This will be a rematch. The last fight went to Makhachev in a controversial decision many observers did not agree with. | 2023-10-11T07:25:11 | 2023-10-20T20:59:00 | 2023-10-21T13:08:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JGZJarG8ZgXbvM7NAWuz | Will Ukraine legalise cannabis for medical use by the end of November? | Attempts to legalize cannabis for medical use were done since 2021. Now they again got to the voting. News outlet on latest updates:
https://english.nv.ua/nation/parliamentary-committee-clears-medial-cannabis-bill-ukraine-news-50359671.html
If by the November 30, 11:59 pm (UTC+2 time) there will be news about successf... | 2023-10-11T07:07:40 | 2023-11-30T11:59:00 | 2023-12-03T08:53:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0xAI58wC8AgJsigdjHxt | Will average world temperature for 2024 be higher than 2023? | Clearly temperatures are trending up, but 2023 was particularly hot. Was it a spike or will 2024 surpass 2023 in average global temperature? | 2023-10-11T07:00:54 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:26:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OpoWqDKiW3zpbI1xOhwy | Will the American hostages in Gaza be rescued by US special forces? | Requires US operators on the ground executing the extraction. | 2023-10-11T06:15:20 | 2023-12-31T20:34:39 | 2023-12-31T20:34:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-248YOJdwnUJPLHaujzGr | [Metaculus] Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following condi... | 2023-10-11T04:37:41 | 2025-01-02T04:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:25:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lm5MpYUS0KcWZievu17u | [Metaculus] Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza ... | 2023-10-11T04:37:39 | 2024-01-02T06:00:00 | 2024-01-02T07:46:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6rUkzH4qIS4ei6Q3AgUm | Does God exist? | Resolves YES/NO to majority vote of poll I will hold around market close. If the poll is 50/50 I will resolve to PROB=50%. | 2023-10-11T04:37:10 | 2023-10-25T14:59:00 | 2023-11-27T09:03:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LS9MdotFG7wvwmDcxE9L | Will there be a prisoner/hostage exchange between Hamas and Israel during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-11T00:50:19 | 2023-11-25T00:17:41 | 2023-11-25T00:17:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3jVXm8gTzhoD4FzBc6aM | Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2025? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bashar al-Assad remains in power as the President of Syria until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025. "In power" is defined as Assad still officially holding the office of the President of Syria, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official government stat... | 2023-10-11T00:30:19 | 2024-12-11T13:25:44 | 2024-12-11T13:25:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W6sxwGRpBmQOiooR560w | Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bashar al-Assad remains in power as the President of Syria until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. "In power" is defined as Assad still officially holding the office of the President of Syria, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official government stat... | 2023-10-11T00:30:05 | 2024-12-11T13:25:54 | 2024-12-11T13:25:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o56sAqcEGMTqu6PMOXeO | Will Mahmoud Abbas be President of the State of Palestine until the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mahmoud Abbas remains in power as the President of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. "In power" is defined as Abbas still officially holding the office of the President of Palestine, as confirmed by reliable sources... | 2023-10-11T00:25:10 | 2023-12-30T17:09:03 | 2023-12-30T17:09:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sf5u4WhrmD2BsANqOJqI | Will California be in a drought in August 2024? | At the end of August 2024, will California be in a widespread drought?
Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.
No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".
The measure is if the... | 2023-10-11T00:24:30 | 2024-09-02T13:46:27 | 2024-09-02T13:46:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-01Mf55feF5wlibHrM16S | Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) share price surpass $470 by the end of 2023? | It is possible that further escalation of current conflicts, start of a new conflict or significant announcements by major military powers in the world over Q4 can increase LMT price.
[image] | 2023-10-10T23:01:20 | 2024-01-05T17:52:45 | 2024-01-05T17:52:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-etYD6qljLo0u9hVjHdPM | Will abortion rights be enshrined in Ohio state’s constitution in the Nov. 7, 2023 election? | Resolves to YES if Ohio issue 1 Yes wins the election, NO if No wins. | 2023-10-10T20:29:16 | 2023-11-07T20:12:15 | 2023-11-07T20:12:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AJkPxsI8mbmHLDEGhe6K | Will Super Mario Wonder win Game of the Year at the Game awards 2023? | Super mario wonder for the switch for game of the year? | 2023-10-10T19:55:58 | 2023-12-07T20:05:19 | 2023-12-07T20:05:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0dl2H5mYBO6tElX4yKdJ | Will it take more than 5 rounds to elect the next Speaker of the House? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T19:51:04 | 2023-10-27T11:44:16 | 2023-10-27T11:44:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a18DORJyREL7PjUZnkwZ | NFL Week 6: Will the Eagles Beat the Jets | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T19:47:32 | 2023-10-15T20:25:43 | 2023-10-15T20:25:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QA4s6vrLZHD85BeSx3mY | Will Sweden receive full membership in NATO in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T17:19:14 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:54:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mDrrTcRlEDs5WexT0Esf | Will Israel start a ground offensive against Gaza by the 15th of October 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T17:03:56 | 2023-10-13T15:07:10 | 2023-10-13T15:07:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9KdtpCIoAtCQiW9nSGQA | Will Netflix’s 2024 adaptation of “3 Body Problem” be awarded with “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes? | The show is expected to premiere in January of 2024, but it's unclear whether Netflix will choose the binge-it-all format or weekly release. This question will resolve when RT certifies the show "Fresh" or two weeks after the final episode has been released, whichever is earlier.
From RT themselves:
"Rotten Tomatoes ... | 2023-10-10T17:00:26 | 2024-03-29T20:00:45 | 2024-03-29T20:00:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4a7EuO68Px2zK2Mx1rhv | Are the reports from Kfar Aza accurate? (Were any babies decapitated there as was widely reported) | There are reports coming out that Hamas killed and decapitated babies in Kfar Aza. Truly horrific if confirmed. This question will resolve to yes if this is confirmed in mainstream US news sources. | 2023-10-10T15:02:40 | 2023-11-12T13:56:00 | 2023-11-12T14:05:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QPxM3G9abUOvZ9ascAHN | Will we have a new Speaker of the House on Thursday | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T12:33:41 | 2023-10-13T12:20:30 | 2023-10-13T12:20:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xpYwWA2YT7stPJZbJ5nD | Will there be a major prisoner for hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas by the end of October? | More than 1000 prisoners for any number of hostages | 2023-10-10T11:50:07 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-10-31T22:08:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rfr34B7xtudnufU50rts | Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 Presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T11:33:31 | 2024-11-05T02:01:14 | 2024-11-05T02:01:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HNhIf8mtH7nvr8PXbmYr | will research on AI/ML win a nobel prize by 2030? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T11:28:12 | 2024-10-09T05:32:42 | 2024-10-09T05:32:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CG9Luhf90rjY1KUjHbm9 | Seinfeld reunion/epilogue? | https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/jerry-seinfeld-teases-seinfeld-reunion-25-years-show-ended
Will there be a televised reunion for the Seinfeld TV show or a continuation of the series in the form of an epilogue episode or limited run series? The program must start airing on TV or stream on a streaming service by r... | 2023-10-10T11:04:54 | 2025-01-01T08:29:55 | 2025-01-01T08:30:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HkGCEURZ8zIxjUinqpAt | Will Alameda’s Caroline Ellison get more than 3 years of jail time? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T10:55:49 | 2024-09-25T07:18:19 | 2024-09-25T07:18:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-979kOpwQJkHQs0WM8Uoo | Will Russia take Avdeevka in 2023? | Yes- on any OSINT map Avdeevka is controlled by Russian forces or greyzone by 31.12.2023
NO- on any OSINT map Avdeevka is controlled by Ukrainian forces or greyzone by 31.12.2023 | 2023-10-10T09:52:56 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:47:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fCw8VYwX4E9BhNzwmqeG | Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 11 than it closed on October 10? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.... | 2023-10-10T09:33:02 | 2023-10-11T11:00:00 | 2023-10-11T15:24:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tYX3v2R7iGTHCkwIoHcP | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 11th October than it closed on 10th October? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Wednesday 11th October than it did on Tuesday 10th October?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute pric... | 2023-10-10T08:08:04 | 2023-10-11T08:30:00 | 2023-10-11T08:51:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E1IufI38HCR51WWYW12H | Will Caroline Ellison be imprisoned at all? | Pretrial detention DOES count. Closing date may be extended as needed. House arrest also counts. | 2023-10-10T07:59:30 | 2024-11-07T20:40:41 | 2024-11-07T20:40:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6EKcapcDXgaC5EzSItXE | Will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to any prison time? | Pretrial detention does not count, nor does house arrest. Closing date may be extended as needed. | 2023-10-10T07:57:26 | 2024-09-25T00:00:44 | 2024-09-25T00:00:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tdVBwDljfFUjxGpyQRCW | Will RFK get 1%+ in general 2024? | RFK is running as independent. Will he have at least 1% of total votes in 2024 general? | 2023-10-10T07:04:56 | 2024-11-30T20:59:00 | 2024-12-28T09:39:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-B7fXEYRy8nyG0cVNEthS | Will Hamas carry out at least 3 lethal attacks in the USA in the next year? | 24K Twitter likes for this thread claiming "Hamas has terror cells in the United States. They came in via the porous Southern border. The people in power know this and they also know their will be attacks targeting our major cities."
Resolves YES if there are at least 3 incidents of terror in the USA, each claiming a... | 2023-10-10T07:02:01 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T03:02:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o6k7CNHA0A3v8rVbSoIe | Will the US launch airstrikes on Iran by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T06:55:00 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:02:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R7wWxxl1N7tGdRhsxKQb | Will Dan Quinn be the Dallas Cowboys head coach by April 1, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T06:53:25 | 2024-04-02T20:59:00 | 2024-04-03T20:32:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9qr64bYbVoXGa0iuLM2S | Will New York City have a snowfall of more than 6 inches this winter (2023/2024)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-10-10T06:07:47 | 2024-02-19T15:46:06 | 2024-02-19T15:46:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VeQAbbqRvsgKNWfEbkl7 | Will George R.R. Martin finish Winds of Winter by the end of 2024? | Any announcement by Martin that the book is finished will qualify as a "yes". Does not need to have a publication date. | 2023-10-10T05:30:53 | 2024-12-31T20:00:00 | 2025-01-02T21:55:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
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