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mani-lwE2hKCpvnxtCEx9UVbW
Will Gaza be under complete military occupation by Israel during 2023?
No part of the territory left uncontrolled by Israeli forces, in the sense that 'control' is typically applied in these kinds of situations.
2023-10-07T07:11:57
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T00:58:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kVw4c6CXZlCUAhY1laVR
Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2023?
Same market but with resolution at the end of 2024: (https://manifold.markets/embed/JoaoPedroSantos/will-gaza-be-de-facto-controled-by-edc24b07f9c9?r=Sm9hb1BlZHJvU2FudG9z) Gaza is currently, in a "de facto" sense, governed by Hamas. The organization's foreign policy has led to blockades by all neighboring countries. Given this situation as my baseline perspective, I intend to evaluate the market based on Israel meeting most of the criteria in the list below by the end of the year, or other indications that would lead a reasonable person to infer that Israel as complete control over the territory. I will employ my own judgment, supplemented by input from other stakeholders, in cases where there is ambiguity. This list was added here to elucidate some people who were arguing that israel already had control of Gaza at the begining of the conflict. It as generated lots of controversy and apprehension in the betters. It serves as a guide and not as a checkbox I will be strictly following at resolution time. if there is still something I should further clarify please add some more comments. I am trying to go by some sort of common sense definition of political (not only military) control, including being able to defend and provide for the population in an organized and CONTROLLED faction. "De Facto" Control Over a Territory implies: 1) Governance and Legal Systems: The ability to make and enforce laws [while allowing citizen participation in decision-making processes (this is optional)]. 2) Security and Border Management: Ensuring internal safety and defending against external threats, while regulating who comes in and out of the territory. 3) Public Services and Utilities: Providing essential services like healthcare, education, and utilities such as water and electricity. 4) Economic Oversight: Control over financial systems, including tax collection and monetary policy. 5) International and Environmental Relations: Maintaining international relationships, disaster preparedness, and resource management. Possibilities that have generated confusion and their resolution: 1) Distopic military dictatorship style control, resolves YES. In this case criteria only the citizen participation section of criteria 1 would not be enforced. 2) Terror attacks by Hamaz are happening in a otherwhise controlled territory, resolves YES In this case the internal safety section of criteria 2 would be lacking but everything else would still lead me to resolve it as YES. 3) Hamaz having a section of Gazan territory still in its control, resolves NO. 4) Population self governing (with or without IDF present), resolves NO. 5) Population in anarchy (with or without IDF present), resolves NO. Also I should refer that at the end I will look for information on wikipedia, major news outlets and other similar reputable sources to make my decision. I will also take into consideration market discussions in case of possible ambiguities.
2023-10-07T06:57:02
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-01T15:38:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I6sPZ5ZVcUj5dMDi4u2o
Will there still be an independent Palestine entity separated from Israel at the end of 2023?
Some clarifications: I considered (still do) palestine to be an independent entity/country (trying to not offend anyone here) at the beggining of the conflict. If this situation is mantained or improved I will resolve this question YES. If palestine looses some but not all of its territories I will resolve this question YES. If the palestine authority or other similar governing body independent (in the extent it was at the beggining of the conflict) from israel still exists I will resolve this market YES. If what is commonly refered to as the one state solution is implemented and israel or other contries control all palestine territories I will resolve this market NO.
2023-10-07T06:56:01
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-01T15:39:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3
Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?
Hamas ruling Gaza on January 1, 2024. My criteria are the ability to enforce laws and governance, maintain public order, and provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference as well as control of critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs, energy supplies, and communication networks over most of the population of Gaza.
2023-10-07T02:59:35
2023-12-31T15:14:29
2023-12-31T15:14:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PqUbwEvabB3rAp1H8Jio
Will the current conflict between Israel and Hamas be over **before** November?
Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel this morning (October 7th). The IDF responded. How long will the conflict last until official or defacto cease fire? Resolves YES if the conflict is over before November 1st 00:00, Israel time. I will resolve to the best of my judgement based on Israeli news publications, or translated Gazan publications. Will not bet on this market myself. Clarification: the ceasefire has to be the real end of hostilities for this round. If there's a ceasefire and then some side immediately breaks it, it will not count. I will wait a week to see whether the ceasefire holds. The ceasefire has to happen within the time frame specified above, even if the week extends into November. PS: one of my first markets here, probably made many mistakes in format/phrasing. Corrections welcome.
2023-10-07T02:24:36
2023-11-01T00:34:03
2023-11-01T00:34:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ye2Gh4p4iM02oqfXY8IL
Mohammed Deif (Hamas military commander) killed or captured by Israeli forces in 2023?
Mohammed Deif is the supreme military commander of Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas. This market resolves YES on reliable international media reports of the killing or capture of Mohammed Deif by Israeli military forces in 2023, local time in Israel, or NO if he is alive and not captured at end of year. If Deif's status cannot be ascertained to the satisfaction of the international community at end of year - for example: if Israel claims his capture or death, Hamas denies this, and neither provide compelling evidence, this market will resolve N/A. In the case the outcome is not immediately clear, in establishing whether the international community has formed consensus on the status of Deif at end of year, I will turn to Wikipedia as an indication. If the article on Deif says it is not known whether he is alive or dead, or free or captive, that's a clear N/A. If it says he is believed to be dead or captured, that's a YES. If it says he is believed to be alive and free, that's a NO. I will ensure any statements in Wikipedia do not appear to be part of an edit war. If Wikipedia doesn't seem like it is living up to my expectations as a good indicator of the consensus view of the international community, I may use other sources. As this may involve a judgement call, I will not bet in this market. Corner cases: If Deif kills himself (assisted or otherwise) in order to avoid capture, the market will resolve YES. If he is killed by friendly fire or some other mishap during and related to an active battle with or or attack by Israeli forces, the market will resolve YES. If he dies due to some other mishap outside of a battle or attack and not caused by Israeli forces, or is intentionally killed by anyone other than Israeli forces (other than as a means to avoid capture) the market resolves NO. Addendum Nov 11th: this market will resolve at the latest at end of year, given the state of public knowledge at that time. If Deif was killed/captured before the end of the year, but we don't find out about it until 2024, this market will still resolve NO.
2023-10-07T00:55:12
2023-12-31T17:49:20
2023-12-31T17:49:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9NcjVDuuqy3gmPBwQU75
Israeli ground troops in the Gaza Strip in 2023?
Resolves YES on reliable international media reports of Israeli ground troops present within the borders of the Gaza Strip in 2023, local time in Israel. This question is an attempt to formalise questions about whether (and to what degree) the attack initiated by Hamas on Oct 7th will escalate. [link preview]
2023-10-06T23:32:28
2023-10-13T15:05:58
2023-10-13T15:05:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ujSgXQ1uq9fMkqZAiqIy
Will India get more than 7 medals in the 2024 Summer Olympics?
7 is the highnest number of medals India has achieved at any Summer olympics. India at the Olympics - Wikipedia
2023-10-06T20:26:31
2024-08-06T11:29:00
2024-08-11T17:37:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jdIL0ncjitFXgRITU8sP
Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers present at an international conference by end 2030 [Harsher Criteria]
Any of the 7 people listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99 It must be about physics. It cannot be an apology or examination of past failures; they must be presenting their own new research positively, and have been selected due to the merit of the research, not as an example of failure or other similar fallout from LK-99's failure. Obviously, if LK-99 turns out to be true, then speaking out about it will be frequent and common, and this will YES easily. The conference must be attended by at least 100 researchers in the field of physics, and must be about physics. It should be a "mainstream" conference. Hard to define, but basically, one which say at least 20% of active physics professors do not dismiss as pseudoscience.
2023-10-06T15:12:11
2024-03-04T15:07:03
2024-03-04T15:07:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-V0loTA2xkh6yUt5Xiuo3
OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by end 2024
Some or all images on openAI will be invisibly watermarked. It will not be trivial to remove (by resizing/changing format), even if I can download the image in png or jpg or whatever. This situation continues for at least 3 months. The market can resolve YES early if we get 3 months with an unbreakable watermark.
2023-10-06T14:55:20
2025-01-01T22:59:00
2025-01-02T00:41:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n8FGFDvW6JBSiMfGjsjQ
Will Taylor Swift be the Time Magazine Person of the Year 2023?
Resolves Yes if Taylor is named Time Magazines' Person of the Year by Time Magazine for 2023. Resolves No otherwise. Note that this is different from the reader's choice question I already made.
2023-10-06T14:00:27
2023-12-06T05:51:59
2023-12-06T05:51:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RezqPzs34MixYgms5CeK
Will the S&P 500 (INDEXSP: .INX) close higher on October 13th than it closed on October 6th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]
S&P 500 closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) Predictions close at 3pm ET (7pm UTC) Previous Close On 10/06/2023: [image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day. Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded) I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
2023-10-06T13:36:01
2023-10-13T13:00:00
2023-10-13T13:20:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uS9Pc6Qm4zduI8uZXFVz
Will Kevin McCarthy be the next speaker of the US House of Representatives?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-06T13:22:18
2023-10-25T10:56:32
2023-10-25T10:56:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4w565uarQS9yeB0VF2MO
Will Lance Stroll be replaced at Aston Martin for the 2024 F1 Season?
Lance Stroll is underperforming for his father's team... Will Lawrence Stroll make the tough decision to axe Lance from his F1 seat? Resolves YES if Lance Stroll is announced not to be racing for Aston Martin F1 team at the start of next season. This may resolve on any official announcement.
2023-10-06T12:04:38
2024-03-06T07:07:29
2024-03-06T07:07:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wBfE9AfqaUdel3gqqvIk
Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected to Congress in the 2024 election?
Will Matt Gaetz win the November 5, 2024 election to represent Florida's 1st congressional district in the United States House of Representatives?
2023-10-06T09:19:39
2024-11-09T23:59:00
2024-11-13T08:46:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zbDzMHOfQ4aepuqePwTr
Will any Democrat vote for any Republican for the next Speaker of the House
Resolves YES if any current Democrat votes for any current Republican for Speaker in any ballot before the next permanent Speaker is elected. Resolves NO if a new permanent Speaker is elected, and this has not happened. Republicans who are not members of the House (e.g. Donald Trump) count for this. Will use most recent declared party affiliation for this. "Next speaker" includes next congress, if no speaker is elected in this one. Close date is an estimate, and will be extended as required.
2023-10-06T06:32:43
2023-10-25T11:11:41
2023-10-25T11:11:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZfyHQMXiyoVpuDacMbXZ
Will Jim Jordan vote for himself for Speaker of the House on any ballot this time?
Last time he was nominated and got other reps' votes but himself always voted for Kevin McCarthy. Will things change this time? [markets]General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-10-05T22:37:34
2023-10-17T13:26:26
2023-10-17T13:26:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZDXZ8m0B0urHEuXFrITK
Will Steve Scalise be the next speaker of the US House of Representatives?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-05T21:07:23
2023-10-25T10:57:13
2023-10-25T10:57:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-95eERYI6hS4HzDSMpUab
Will Jim Jordan be the next speaker of the US House of Representatives?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-05T21:01:10
2023-10-25T10:59:30
2023-10-25T10:59:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yCmYqMWEn9tP93BtGvo7
Will Gaetz vote for Donald Trump for Speaker of the House?
Resolves YES if in the next election for the Speaker of the House, Gaetz votes for Donald Trump (regardless of whether he is officially nominated or not). Otherwise NO. A vote on any ballot for the election of the next speaker counts. Only this speaker election counts. Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution (Gaetz cast a vote for Trump in the first Speaker election of this Congress) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-accept-speakership-for-short-period-republicans-decide-permanent-replacement
2023-10-05T17:37:20
2023-10-25T11:04:36
2023-10-25T11:04:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HEhdUy0nwBd3D7Ucvmsr
Will anyone other than Gaetz vote for Donald Trump for Speaker of the House?
Resolves YES if in the next election for the Speaker of the House, anyone other than Gaetz votes for Donald Trump (regardless of whether he is officially nominated or not). Otherwise NO. A vote on any ballot for the election of the next speaker counts. Only this speaker election counts. Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-accept-speakership-for-short-period-republicans-decide-permanent-replacement
2023-10-05T17:36:59
2023-10-25T11:04:51
2023-10-25T11:04:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TDNkgZujJvgEVsHuo7V9
Will Biden and Xi meet in person by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-05T17:30:50
2023-11-15T12:35:11
2023-11-15T12:35:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Z50RPKqOd3it3cPQ6z1S
Will Rishi Sunak hold the UK Prime Minister's office for at least two years?
This market will resolve to "YES" if Rishi Sunak is the UK Prime Minister for at least 730 full days, counting from the time of pleading an oath of allegiance. Thus resolves on October 25.
2023-10-05T16:46:28
2024-07-08T15:03:03
2024-07-08T15:03:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ld0jBKLu4oIpPzaFtA8e
Will typical links on Twitter start putting their headline text in the image?
Twitter has stopped providing the headline text for links. Daniel Eth predicts https://twitter.com/daniel_271828/status/1710045064771293211 that the reaction will be to put the headline text into the image. Will this be the typical response for those providing links on Twitter by March 2024? This resolves to YES if, of the first 11 links I see in March 2024 on Twitter, at least 6 contain their headline text or other text description of the contents of the post. This resolves to NO if 5 or less contain their headline text or other text description of the contents of the post. If I suspect that there has been manipulation of the result (by people intentionally posting links with or without links) then I will reset the counts and instead evaluate using one my lists that I am confident is unaffected (by default Economics, if necessary Politics). As with my other long term markets, I will resolve this early (to YES or NO accordingly) if it sustains >95% or <5% for two weeks and I have no reason to doubt the prediction. If Twitter reverses its course, this resolves N/A.
2023-10-05T16:35:29
2024-02-29T20:59:00
2024-03-01T04:17:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oFV87EjVqGTl1VqPk29l
Will Mike Johnson serve as Speaker of the House until the end of the term?
Will Mike Johnson, the successor of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, remain in the position continuously until January 3, 2025? [markets]General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-10-05T16:25:30
2025-01-03T12:00:24
2025-01-03T13:05:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-utod29SiUUi8pVEDn7L9
Will SPACEX REACH THE 100 launches in a calendar year this year???
Looks like it will be extremely close with my maths ( using a near infinit error to successful extrapolation with a bias of +0.345) it should occur at 0600-2000 hrs on 31-12-2023.
2023-10-05T15:10:42
2023-12-29T09:49:40
2023-12-29T09:49:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JR1h0J3EEpfQwLgxRTXl
Will Taylor Swift make the best selling album in the US in 2024?
This question resolves by which artist's album is listed on Wikipedia as having sold the most in 2024. Taylor Swift and Adele have dominated album sales in the US since 2009. Both Swift and Adele are engaged in performances until November 2024 - Swift with her Eras Tour, and Adele with her concert residency in Las Vegas. Will an album by Taylor Swift make the most sales in the United States in 2024? Note: The Wikipedia list includes any albums sold, so for example, an album released in 2023 made by Taylor Swift that becomes the best selling album in 2024 would still count as a YES for this question. Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing The resolution deadline has been extended to provide additional time for Wikipedia to update the sales data.
2023-10-05T14:39:53
2025-01-17T23:59:00
2025-01-19T08:16:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8ZaU1JNFmpUVqW90bOyu
Will there be a 1.73.1 release of Rust?
Usually when a vulnerability is found in Rust, a patch release is created containing a fix. This question asks whether that will happen for during the 1.73 release of Rust. This resolves to YES if Rust makes a release with version number 1.73.1 before 1.74.0 is released. When 1.74.0 is released, this market resolves to NO. (Patch releases generally are not made to previous versions.) You can see the releases on: https://releases.rs/ Previous market: https://manifold.markets/AliceRyhl/will-there-be-a-1722-release-of-rus [link preview]
2023-10-05T13:16:29
2023-11-17T02:49:57
2023-11-17T02:49:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-40eeF2hQoBEIy7EYa5LQ
Will the New York Times quit Twitter before the end of 2024?
Inspired by this Nate Silver blog post https://www.natesilver.net/p/will-the-new-york-times-ever-quit Will the New York Times stop using Twitter/X before the end of 2024? This resolves YES if there is a two week period during which the nytimes Twitter account does not make any posts, including replies to other posts. It can also resolve YES if the account is banned for at least two weeks. It resolves NO if at the end of 2024 the account is still active. Resolves N/A in the edge case that Twitter no longer exists. Dumb Elon Musk stunts like renaming it to X are taken to be whatever is most in the spirit of the market. (So, renaming it to Y would not make this resolve N/A).
2023-10-05T13:09:28
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2024-12-31T15:02:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1zbwCJBSbl891Wq5I2jd
Will the S&P 500 close higher on October 6 than it closed on October 5?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of October (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. Rank---Award 1 2500 2 1750 3 1250 4 750 5 500 Good luck forecasting! Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS
2023-10-05T13:07:31
2023-10-06T11:00:00
2023-10-06T18:17:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Wzb84y9L5hsyx2QNB8WW
Will Lex Fridman interview an AI version of himself during 2024?
Resolves YES if @LexFridman publishes a podcast episode or YouTube video (YouTube clip is not sufficient) with a interview of an AI version of himself at any point during 2024
2023-10-05T11:16:56
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T11:47:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VdqMcLLJvU7JZvLNna0d
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Stanford defeat Colorado?
Kickoff: Friday, October 13, 2023 - 8:00 PM MDT Folsom Field - Boulder, Colorado Week 7 Pac-12 games: @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-notre-d @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-was @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-california-defeat-e09091fd1a2e @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-co (this market) @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-wash @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucla-defeat-oregon
2023-10-05T09:58:47
2023-10-13T23:11:58
2023-10-13T23:11:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WGAKHm5KW3bhBT44eLjd
[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. Resolution criteria This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that uses LLMs results in any of the following: At least one person is killed There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus. If none of these scenarios occur before January 1st 2025, this question will resolve negatively. This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
2023-10-05T09:01:27
2025-01-02T12:00:00
2025-01-03T03:24:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bgd2bW1DJjUu8Y3tEHdR
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 6th October than it closed on 5th October?
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 6th October than it did on Thursday 5th October? The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough! Some longer term FTSE 100 markets: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
2023-10-05T08:24:01
2023-10-06T08:30:00
2023-10-06T09:07:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VkYxpk9rt21SHtQosTKA
Will DALL-E 3 generate accurate images from the prompt "yellow ocean, blue sand" majority of the time?
Resolution Criteria I will be doing 20 attempts and if more than 10 attemps have atleast two images that shows both a yellow ocean and blue sand then this question resolves to "Yes" I will be the judge. I'll use common sense; the ocean should be clearly yellow and the sand blue. The prompt should be copied and pasted as "yellow ocean, blue sand" with no extra specifications allowed. I will be using Dall-E through ChatGPT once I get access. I won't be participating in this market avoid any biases.
2023-10-05T08:11:11
2023-10-18T07:02:35
2023-10-18T07:02:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zr0Vw4lJKTQBZvY7KBJm
Will McHenry as Speaker pro-tempore conduct legislative business?
It seems to currently be unclear whether McHenry, in his role as speaker pro-tempore of the House, is able to conduct legislative business: In the meantime, other action on the House floor, including any legislative business, is likely to be halted. House staff aides believe the acting speaker may wield the gavel only to administer the election of a new speaker. But others argue that as acting speaker, Mr. McHenry can exercise powers beyond overseeing a speaker’s race, as long as a majority tolerates it. “From an institutional House rules perspective, Speaker McHenry has the powers of the speakership, and he will continue to exercise those powers to the extent and degree that the majority party is willing to tolerate,” said Josh C. Huder, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. “If he does something too brash or too bold, they will rein him in. And that’s really the only thing that’s governing his authority.” House rules do not explicitly prohibit the interim speaker from adopting the powers of an elected speaker. But the rule that led to Mr. McHenry’s ascent was developed with only temporary absences in mind, not a vacant chair, according to Stan M. Brand, the former general counsel to the House. That leaves legal room for Mr. McHenry to exercise broader powers, such as conducting legislative business, if he chooses. -- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/us/politics/patrick-mchenry-interim-speaker.html Resolves true if McHenry uses his current pro-tempore position to allow the House to schedule a vote for anything other than a new Speaker. Resolves false otherwise, including if a new Speaker is elected quickly enough that we don't find out whether legislating would have been acceptable.
2023-10-05T05:59:54
2023-10-25T14:37:05
2023-10-25T14:37:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ae9vETsp9I145TTZTpfe
Will SpaceX's launch license for a second Starship–Superheavy flight be granted by the FAA in October?
Resolves YES on the FAA issuing a launch license, before the end of October, that would authorise SpaceX's planned second integrated flight test of the Starship–Superheavy vehicle, launching from Boca Chica, Texas on a near-orbital flight. The existing license that authorised the first flight test can be found on the FAA's licenses page: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/ as license "VOL 23-129". It is expected that the FAA will modify the existing license in order to extend its applicability to the second flight. The existing license authorises the first flight only using the following language: 4. Authorization: In accordance with the representations in the Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. application as of the date of this license, and any amendments to the license application or waivers approved by the FAA, in writing, Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. is authorized to conduct launch consisting of: a. Pre-flight ground operations: i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle. ii. At SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas. b. Flight Operations: i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle. ii. From SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas. iii. To Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean locations specified in its application. iv. For the first flight only, unless this license is modified to remove this term. It is expected that the final term iv restricting authorisation to the first flight only will be removed. However, any license authorising a second Starship–Superheavy flight launching from Boca Chica to the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean will cause this market to resolve YES. This market will resolve YES on such a modified license appearing on the FAA's licenses page, or on a new license document appearing there that would authorise the second flight, or on reliable media reports that the FAA has granted such a license, even if they have yet to update their webpage (this happened previously). Such evidence must appear before the end of October, even if we later discover the license was issued in some sense on October 31st, if this is not public information conveyed by reliable sources by the end of October, this market will resolve NO. Arbitrary restrictions contained within such a license still count for the purposes of this market - such as if a license is granted but does not authorise a flight until next year. It does not matter whether there are other regulatory requirements SpaceX also need in order to launch, in addition to a launch license from the FAA. This market resolves only on an FAA license, or NO at the end of October if none is issued. The relevant timezone for "End of October" is local time in Texas.
2023-10-05T02:34:34
2023-10-31T21:59:00
2023-10-31T21:59:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2hI9w3Yf65Wcrv2v5Qd1
Will kizaru have a devil fruit awakening?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-05T00:58:23
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-02T10:36:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-L41F7FPYkFa1t9CKO54m
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2024?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/will-a-single-shooting-incident-kil-2un6tdRdSs?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-a-single-shooting-inciden?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/how-many-people-will-be-killed-in-t-d9039de6f59e)
2023-10-05T00:01:48
2025-01-01T04:59:00
2025-01-07T04:19:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7RkabBznOQB3h5ng897M
2023 MLB Playoffs: Will The Atlanta Braves Beat The Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-04T20:50:00
2023-10-12T20:31:48
2023-10-12T20:31:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Izxc5tzE1J9jMwUUjZRe
Will Twitter (X) roll back part or all of the October change to link embeds in a meaningful way before the end of 2023?
This market resolves YES if an embed is reworked or reverted such that the default behaviour is to show >75 characters from the embed's title or >75 characters from the description. Either or both will resolve as YES. This market will resolve NO there is no change, or if there is a change but user input is required to view (for example, mouseover, clicking), or if it is part of a premium subscription not available to all users, or if it is a non-default setting. This will only be tested on desktop in a Chromium browser at 1440p. If there is clearly reported ambiguity such as A/B testing where both groups have a substantial population, there will be a week wait to allow things to become more clear before resolution. _ Musk promised this change in August, and now it is here. Here it is covered by The Verge. And here is an example of the new embed look: [image]Here is an example of how the same post looks on a client that hadn't received the update. [image]
2023-10-04T19:21:32
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-05T02:10:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1WssMCzBGOjTQEN13yQw
Will Spy be worth more than $420/share on the November 11th close?
resolves based on the price of the SPY ETF
2023-10-04T16:51:22
2023-11-11T22:59:00
2023-11-21T02:02:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zm9aSbHYwV56IKN7CiQR
Will the government of any country be dissolved or overthrown before January 1?
The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before January 1. Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government. The question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before January 1. The question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances before January 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively.
2023-10-04T15:40:56
2023-11-20T17:53:08
2023-11-20T17:53:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7msHCXAciqcvwtBBBJEx
Will Hasan react to the Ben Shapiro and Destiny debate ?!
Will he watch at least 1/3 of the debate on stream ! Related market: https://manifold.markets/Kabose/will-the-debate-between-destiny-and?r=S2Fib3Nl
2023-10-04T15:12:42
2024-01-23T20:43:24
2024-01-23T20:43:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-p5yeHiXcEQZ2p5qcqzI4
Will Taylor Swift be the Time Magazine Reader's Choice Person of the Year 2023?
Resolves Yes if Taylor is named Reader's Choice Person of the Year by Time Magazine for 2023. Resolves No otherwise.
2023-10-04T14:50:53
2023-12-06T05:07:09
2023-12-06T05:07:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wAtskXVzOGLw7vdAPMcf
Will Joe Biden outlive Jimmy Carter?
This market will resolve YES if Joe Biden is still alive when Jimmy Carter passes away, as reported by mainstream media outlets (e.g. CNN). It will resolve NO if Jimmy Carter is still alive when Joe Biden passes away, again as reported by mainstream media outlets. This market is set to close at the end of 2040. In the unlikely scenario in which both are still alive at that time, I will extend the market for another 30 years. If both Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden demonstrably die (almost) simultaneously, this market will resolve N/A. Almost simultaneously is taken here to mean within less than 1 hour of each other.
2023-10-04T12:25:33
2024-12-29T13:50:57
2024-12-29T13:50:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rEJPI5ScYotZdVhick8L
Will Hakeem Jeffries get the most votes in next (first) vote for Speaker of the House?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes in the first vote for a new Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy was ousted. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
2023-10-04T11:53:30
2023-10-17T10:54:41
2023-10-17T10:54:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jucMwNyQdLmWtaAmJAs2
Will Congress approve another Ukraine aid package this year?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-04T10:14:09
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T06:37:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9mrSCG8wAVBKvwOPiK70
Will the Falcons start someone other than Desmond Ridder at QB in a game between Weeks 5-10?
2023 Regular Season.
2023-10-04T09:29:04
2023-11-06T11:27:59
2023-11-06T11:27:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ewIqWmtGPrXpEvHJwqok
Will the United States beat Germany? ⚽ Friendly
Yes - USA win No- Germany win / Draw
2023-10-04T09:24:38
2023-10-14T14:03:12
2023-10-14T14:03:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n5eFwY9XR0VjRV1Hjyie
Will Australia host the 2034 FIFA World Cup?
Resolves YES if Australia is selected as the 2034 World Cup host or co-host.
2023-10-04T08:27:27
2023-10-31T13:03:18
2023-10-31T13:03:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kFLDpmnx8zfDSOTj11ve
Will Saudi Arabia host the 2034 FIFA World Cup?
Resolves YES if Saudi Arabia is selected as the 2034 World Cup host or co-host.
2023-10-04T08:26:45
2023-10-31T13:00:16
2023-10-31T13:00:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-numNQJTApCbXNDLOsOcj
Will the next speaker of the US House of Representatives not be a member of the US House of Representatives?
It's allowed, and names from Trump to Schwarzenegger have been floated. Resolves upon the election of a new Speaker (not pro tempore). If they are not a representative in the house at the time of their election, resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.
2023-10-04T08:17:26
2023-10-25T10:57:24
2023-10-25T10:57:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-z9Rcrsm65kv6dRARPn41
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 5th October than it closed on 4th October?
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 5th October than it did on Wednesday 4th October? The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough! Some longer term FTSE 100 markets: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
2023-10-04T08:04:53
2023-10-05T08:30:00
2023-10-05T09:02:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZmhO8l3GYNod1jd2XKh3
[Metaculus] Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?
Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. Resolution criteria The question will resolve as Yes if, before January 20, 2025, credible sources report that Saudi Arabia and Israel have established diplomatic relations. For the purposes of this question, diplomatic relations will be considered to be established when a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced. This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
2023-10-04T08:03:56
2025-01-21T06:00:00
2025-01-24T16:12:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eKBE5IM2nvjhajtFeJRZ
Will Mark Cavendish break Eddy Merckx's TdF record in 2024?
Cavendish has to win at least one stage at the Tour de France 2024. This question will be resolved to no, if he doesn't win one or the tour doesn't take place or he doesn't start. He has to be officially announced as a winner after a stage or until the end of the tour. If there are i. e. any doping allegations after the tour, the question will already be resolved. More information: https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/its-not-over-yet-mark-cavendish-to-race-on-in-2024-target-tour-de-france-record/ The TdF-Dashboard: https://manifold.markets/news/tour-de-france-2024-1wmakfef
2023-10-04T06:55:57
2024-07-03T08:40:38
2024-07-03T08:40:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-K9yQ83E6hHtcyv7tqSJ0
Will oil hit $100 a barrel before the end of 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-04T06:48:01
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T22:06:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WBX1N8KMHfoeu1Btlyra
Will Donald Trump receive a vote for Speaker by the end of October?
Some GOP House members have indicated their support for Donald Trump to become Speaker. Will he receive any votes? The market will expire either at the end of October or when the next Speaker is elected, whichever comes first.
2023-10-04T06:43:48
2023-10-25T10:54:07
2023-10-25T10:54:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5DldL9PQ0Iitqz403rUw
Will Hakeem Jeffries receive the most Speaker votes on the first ballot?
In the very next vote for the Speaker of the House on the floor of the US Congress, will the most votes on the first ballot go to Hakeem Jeffries? Hakeem Jeffries need not have a majority of votes to win, only the most of any names that receive votes. (In the event of something weird, I'll set the end date at the beginning of the next Congress, but this market should be over far sooner.)
2023-10-04T06:38:36
2023-10-17T10:54:02
2023-10-17T10:54:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fzpwjXZRu5aBgIru7UlT
Will at least 5 members abstain/vote present in the ballot electing the next Speaker of the House?
Resolves YES if at least 5 members either do not vote or vote "present" in the ballot electing the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, otherwise NO. If there are multiple ballots, only the final deciding ballot counts for this question. Context: McCarthy won election to the Speakership by convincing 5 Republican holdouts to vote present instead of voting against him. Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution A member not voting for any reason counts, including absence. A vacant seat doesn't count, because it's not a member.
2023-10-04T05:54:22
2023-10-25T10:58:40
2023-10-25T10:58:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-imRzKozAXT8VUgJ1GLnB
Will any Democrat vote in support of the next Speaker of the House?
Resolves YES if any Democrat votes in support of the next winner of the Speaker of the House election, otherwise NO. If they vote in support of the eventual winner on any ballot (i.e. round of voting), it counts as YES even if that is not the final ballot and they change their vote on another ballot. Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution. Update: Resolves based on the next elected Speaker, even if that doesn't happen until the next term of Congress.
2023-10-04T05:51:59
2023-10-25T11:05:02
2023-10-25T11:05:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UTNZe8e6YCqD3IlxJl1z
Will the next Speaker of the House be elected within 15 ballots?
Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House is elected on one of the first 15 ballots, otherwise NO. (McCarthy won election on the 15th ballot.) Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution
2023-10-04T05:50:46
2023-10-25T11:05:18
2023-10-25T11:05:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NebHotjsoyxjfz8FxVOJ
Will the next Speaker of the House be elected on the first ballot?
Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House is elected on the first ballot, otherwise NO.
2023-10-04T05:49:07
2023-10-17T13:31:28
2023-10-17T13:31:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nocKetwUQIMjlRPsCotd
Will there be some kind of power-sharing agreement between Democrats and Republicans in the House by the end of 2023?
This would likely result from no Republican being able to command 218 votes, and a few moderate republicans voting with the Dems to elect a moderate Speaker who will allow both sides to share power.
2023-10-04T04:33:12
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KXe1zZ3SbvVscZy8MkBK
Is incest bad?
Resolves YES/NO to majority vote of poll I will hold around market close. If the poll is 50/50 I will resolve to PROB=50%.
2023-10-04T04:18:47
2023-10-23T14:59:00
2023-11-27T09:02:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XJb7M4i7K9kf0n2dxWQc
Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 110 against the USD before the end of November 2023?
Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 110 is enough. The current spot price (4 Oct 2023) is around 99.5 against the USD (the higher the fx rate, the weaker the Ruble)
2023-10-04T01:48:15
2023-12-01T07:49:20
2023-12-01T07:49:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kbYmGnjAyocmI4GcQcIz
Will Clint Eastwood make it to the end of 2024?
Clinton Eastwood Jr. (born May 31, 1930) is 93. Will he make it to the end of 2024? He seems fairly fit for 93 and has quite a few hobbies and interests to keep the mind strong. Clint's father died from a heart attack at the age of 64, and his grandfather lived to be 92.
2023-10-04T01:09:05
2024-12-31T00:02:00
2025-01-02T16:00:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GuorzQ3wBnRqiLBnVI68
Will Elon Musk endorse Vivek Ramaswamy for the next President of the USA (2024)
Will Elon publicly support Vivek as a candidate?
2023-10-04T00:23:12
2024-01-16T18:02:05
2024-01-16T18:02:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pDd7Jqm8LhMgamiEaZDj
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 300 seats at the next UK general election?
Edited to add UK to title Alternatively (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-4f8a1f93b653)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m)
2023-10-04T00:22:41
2024-07-04T22:53:19
2024-07-04T22:53:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fkcS8HereVu6IoBPTvSd
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 240 seats at the next UK general election?
Edited to add UK to title Alternatively [markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-c064235d18b7)
2023-10-04T00:21:43
2024-07-04T22:52:29
2024-07-04T22:52:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RiZVI1zOOw1IsYugi7DP
Will the US Congress vote to approve new funding for Ukraine during 2023?
Military or civilian financial support.
2023-10-04T00:19:29
2023-12-16T23:44:53
2023-12-16T23:44:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SZQCDhSNv5Nxt3PaQLFJ
Will Taylor Swift attend a Travis Kelce game during the 2024-25 NFL season?
This resolves positively iff there are credible media reports that Taylor Swift attends an NFL game during the 2024-25 season at which Travis Kelce is present and on the roster of one of the playing teams. Kelce need not play. Kelce and Swift need not be dating. Kelce need not be playing for the Chiefs. A game in the regular season, playoff, or Pro Bowl counts. A game in the preseason does not count.
2023-10-03T23:23:32
2024-09-09T16:15:25
2024-09-09T16:15:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fTtu7lZW7qFEMQNC65FZ
Biden vs Trump Polling Average - Will Biden retake the lead before December?
Average will be taken from RCP: [image]Trump took the lead on September 11th, but Biden had been ahead for a few months before that. Will Biden retake the lead by December?
2023-10-03T20:57:20
2023-11-30T23:59:00
2023-12-01T04:14:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9IsLRirKGtDtDaoqhVXo
Will a new Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected before the end of October?
Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives on 3 Oct 2023. The election of McCarthy to Speaker in January 2023 took 5 days (Jan 3 to Jan 7). The House is expected to hold an election for Speaker next Wednesday (11th of October). Will a new Speaker be elected on or before midnight (EST) October 31st (i.e. the end of the month)?
2023-10-03T19:34:41
2023-10-25T16:03:01
2023-10-25T16:03:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IKtNHXDxmx5tN0e9j1RP
Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Green Bay Packers in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Raiders win No - Packers win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:33:22
2023-10-09T20:11:04
2023-10-09T20:11:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0qMEmYQ22LsfuO0RZK7w
Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Dallas Cowboys in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - 49ers win No - Cowboys win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:31:51
2023-10-08T20:49:34
2023-10-08T20:49:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yLiMZgXejCbwRcunHoCA
Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Vikings win No - Chiefs win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:30:43
2023-10-08T16:26:02
2023-10-08T16:28:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I29n2ozi2slkkqiRwQZi
Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-03T19:26:12
2023-10-08T16:08:02
2023-10-08T16:08:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ctDMpWE2SofWdkPmMK31
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Steelers win No - Ravens win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:25:19
2023-10-08T13:02:22
2023-10-08T13:02:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-u01dpk1wtvxpJKdUWFUZ
Will the New England Patriots beat the New Orleans Saints in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Patriots win No - Saints win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:23:54
2023-10-08T12:59:02
2023-10-08T12:59:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mGsN8QduicHPQrKnjM0D
Will the Miami Dolphins beat the New York Giants in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-03T19:22:46
2023-10-08T13:04:37
2023-10-08T13:04:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0BApAbgM8TReDr7YEZJ6
Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Tennessee Titans in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Colts win No - Titans win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:21:49
2023-10-08T12:58:33
2023-10-08T12:58:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mpKqYN8vYURjVcSDhKVt
Will the Detroit Lions beat the Carolina Panthers in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Lions win No - Panthers win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:18:50
2023-10-08T13:10:43
2023-10-08T13:10:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7E3gcZ3XnK06O6DjmNgz
Will the Denver Broncos beat the New York Jets in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Broncos win No - Jets win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:16:58
2023-10-08T16:28:52
2023-10-08T16:29:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1m36eMgflFGyfdTjhl8R
Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Bills win No - Jaguars win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-10-03T19:13:14
2023-10-08T09:54:51
2023-10-08T09:55:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9lj48955dlmR2e7zcxj8
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be Time's Person of the Year for 2023?
Resolves Yes if Zelenskyy is named Person of the Year by Time Magazine for 2023. Resolves Yes even if he shares this title, as he did with "The Spirit of Ukraine" in 2022. Resolves No otherwise.
2023-10-03T17:36:44
2023-12-06T06:26:47
2023-12-06T06:26:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-23kEbil6PMmC0MOxmncB
Will Matt Gaetz be expelled from the GOP conference by October 31st?
Inspired by Newt Gingrich op-ed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/03/newt-gingrich-matt-gaetz-remove/ This market will resolve Yes if Matt Gaetz is expelled from the House Republican Conference in the month of October. Expulsion from Congress itself will also resolve Yes.
2023-10-03T16:45:48
2023-10-31T20:59:00
2023-10-31T21:06:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wmUGHfkvPV3RmAaqq3CQ
Will Erik Ten Hag stay Manchester United's coach through full season?
This question will resolve to YES, is Erik Ten Hag stays the coach of Manchester United by May 31 2024. Otherwise it resolves NO
2023-10-03T16:40:08
2024-05-31T14:59:00
2025-01-07T07:01:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EQyUsl1iFY0xrNOD4cuI
Will Kevin McCarthy resign his House seat before the end of the current session?
This shall resolve YES if Kevin McCarthy resigns his House seat early.
2023-10-03T16:32:13
2023-12-19T12:16:29
2023-12-19T12:16:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wL7Nxc1Qe9yckkpFBD58
Will SBF cry during his trial?
Must be visible or at least reported by those in the courtroom or in the transcript.
2023-10-03T15:37:29
2024-03-28T11:48:09
2024-03-28T11:48:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UUBBvK3viMo03iHVSNzi
Will Trump violate the gag order in the civil trial such that sanctions are imposed?
This pertains only to the civil fraud trial in NYC. It only resolved YES if the judge imposes sanctions (fine/prison/etc) and not if he is merely admonished.
2023-10-03T15:22:17
2023-10-20T14:08:20
2023-10-20T14:08:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tR72bwIYL7zJ5OqHtvJT
Will Trump be ordered by a judge to cease all public communications about a case and the people involved during 2023?
Has to be a total gag order, where he's not allowed to say anything positive or negative about the case in any public way. The order must be at least as severe as the Roger Stone gag order as described by Politico here: [image]
2023-10-03T15:02:34
2023-12-31T23:48:59
2023-12-31T23:48:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0KV7KmwaYlgStA0ErBT5
Will Patrick McHenry remain as speaker pro tempore for 30 days?
Patrick McHenry became speaker pro tempore of the US House of Representatives on October 3, 2023. Resolves YES if he holds this position continiously (e.g. the office of Speaker remains vacant) through 12:01 a.m. EST on November 3, 2023.
2023-10-03T13:59:44
2023-10-28T18:29:58
2023-10-28T18:29:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J
Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?
Doesn't have to win, or even get any votes. But someone has to nominate him.
2023-10-03T13:52:33
2023-10-17T15:28:48
2023-10-17T15:29:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Nz0O7u3UECcv7JcGpf2d
Will the Sam Bankman-Fried Trial & sentencing last into March 2024?
Counting calendar days from start of the trial, regardless of everything. If there is a retrial, it doesn't matter since this only relates to the first trial. If paused, the clock is still running until it's not active anymore. Any way the trial could end would count. The timespan includes sentencing.
2023-10-03T13:03:50
2024-03-01T11:00:00
2024-03-01T11:51:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mL4mUMybB4djJWFhZt52
Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 33,000 points at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-03T13:00:10
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T22:33:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mR9hGGhyZB7vNO9uyGgx
Will x.com under X corp. go public (IPO) by the end of 2024?
See related article: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/01/bill-ackman-would-absolutely-do-a-deal-with-x-with-his-new-sparc.html [link preview]This market does not resolve N/A. Resolves YES if At any time before January 1st, 2025, x.com (formerly twitter) held under X corp. goes public via an IPO. Resolves NO otherwise.
2023-10-03T12:41:09
2025-01-01T21:59:00
2025-01-03T14:22:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fTNfBNQfsiSmPTvtvK4Y
Will Matt Gaetz be expelled from the 118th Congress?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-10-03T12:09:32
2024-11-13T20:06:42
2024-11-13T20:06:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZOMipSjVmOiiQ6ZYOM2q
Will the Sam Bankman-Fried Trial last into 2024? [dup of another]
[Note: this is a duplicate of another market which is larger, so preferentially bet there] https://manifold.markets/RobinBruce/will-sam-bankmanfrieds-trial-conclu I will resolve this one generally following that one's resolution, barring gross resolution problems. Counting calendar days from start of the trial, regardless of everything. If there is a retrial, it doesn't matter since this only relates to the first trial. If paused, the clock is still running until it's not active anymore. Any way the trial could end would count. The timespan includes sentencing.
2023-10-03T12:02:14
2024-01-01T11:00:00
2024-01-01T11:19:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GyAyli2Dd6oWuJImZRg0
Will the Sam Bankman-Fried Trial last at least 5 weeks (to Nov 7)
Counting calendar days from start of the trial, regardless of everything. If there is a retrial, it doesn't matter since this only relates to the first trial. If paused, the clock is still running until it's not active anymore. Any way the trial could end would count. The timespan includes sentencing.
2023-10-03T12:02:02
2023-11-10T13:53:11
2023-11-10T13:53:11
yes
MANIFOLD