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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-Il6B2Y5zWW4wv6J7DboV
|
Will True Detective S04 have an average IMDB rating >8.23 on April 30th 2024?
|
Last season currently averages at 8.23, will Season 4 beat it?
To resolve, I will check ratings at/around April 30th on this IMDB page.
[image]
|
2023-09-28T03:05:22
|
2024-02-23T15:34:46
|
2024-02-23T15:34:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cPSHsrQcbs8SwvJbWnBS
|
Will x.com require users to pay to use the platform by the end of 2024?
|
Elon Musk has mentioned offhandedly that the platform will consider moving towards a subscription model for all users in order to combat bots.
See video:
https://youtu.be/Sea-Uxw5Syg?si=XtaCwWKRgxtQAray
This market does not resolve N/A.
Resolves YES if:
At any point before January 1st, 2025, twitter.com or x.com requires all users, existing or new, to pay any amount of money to do ANY of the following: post, comment, repost, quote post, like, bookmark or view posts on the platform.
The resolution should be interpreted to mean "anything free users could previously do (as of today September 28th, 2023) but can no longer do without paying a fee"
A release of new premium features that add functionality to the platform that did not already exist do not count.
Currently paywalled features such a subscription posts or other premium features do not count.
Resolves NO otherwise.
This market is a longer resolution time frame of this market:
https://manifold.markets/whalelang/will-xcom-require-users-to-pay-to-u?r=d2hhbGVsYW5n
[link preview]Edit:
... x.com requires users to pay..
becomes
... x.com requires all users, existing or new, to pay..
|
2023-09-28T02:16:47
|
2025-01-01T21:59:00
|
2025-01-03T14:22:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AgJ79TpR63AfLsO6R0M4
|
Will Geoff Keighley be interrupted by yet another stage crasher at the 2023 Game Awards? [Ṁ500 Pool]
|
At the 2022 Game Awards, Geoff Keighley was accosted by the now-infamous "Bill Clinton Kid". At Gamescom Showcase 2023, an as-yet unrelated "GTA 6 Kid" assailed the stage in a similar fashion. Will Geoff Keighley face a third such threat at the 2023 Game Awards!?
Resolves to YES if any number of people who are not supposed to be there rush or sneak onto the stage during the live broadcast. If they technically don't reach the stage (e.g. due to being tackled by security), but the incident shows up as a disruptive moment on stream, then it still counts as YES.
Feel free to ask clarifying questions!
|
2023-09-28T00:07:29
|
2023-12-07T20:12:58
|
2023-12-07T20:12:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YOeDpbIeQcUNyUudUUdf
|
Will Messenger/Whatsapp/Instagram allow people to create their own personal AIs to respond to DMs? (by the end of 2024)
|
either of these 3
Must be available to general public
|
2023-09-27T22:20:24
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2024-12-31T15:15:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nJpFJOXbG43nSBt2ZTIE
|
Will the 2023 UAW Strike last at least 60 days (Nov 13)
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Auto_Workers_strike
Please see @/Ernie/does-a-labor-strike-end-when-the-wo for detail on how I will determine when a strike ends.
|
2023-09-27T20:54:34
|
2023-11-14T09:35:50
|
2023-11-14T09:35:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q03Uzb7bbXTAenRmKolZ
|
Will Destiny call out his fellow panelists at the VidCon Panel?
|
Resolves YES if Destiny makes a hostile remark towards any of the panelists during the event. This takes into account the context of the statement, and to some extent the reaction of the panelists and audience.
Resolves NO if the discussion goes as planned and/or Destiny does not contribute any infighting to the event.
Resolves N/A if the event is cancelled for any reason.
|
2023-09-27T19:15:05
|
2023-09-30T14:14:12
|
2023-09-30T14:14:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2GAkblg6djFTvLAxFNTr
|
Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) be convicted?
|
On September 22, 2023, Robert Menendez, the senior United States Senator from New Jersey, was indicted by federal prosecutors in Manhattan. The indictment alleges that Menendez accepted bribes in exchange for using his political position to benefit three businessmen and the Egyptian government. [AP News] [New York Times] [The Economist]
This market resolves YES if United States Senator Robert Menendez is found guilty of a criminal offense in United States v Menendez (docket no. 23 Cr. 490) by the New York Southern District Court.
The market resolves YES if Menendez accepts a plea bargain in which he pleads guilty to at least one charge. Pleading nolo contendere ("no contest") to a charge is not sufficient to be considered a guilty plea.
The market resolves NO if Menendez is found not guilty of any criminal offense because he is acquitted of the charges or because the case/charges are dismissed.
The market resolves NO if there is a mistrial or hung jury.
In any other outcome besides those listed above, the market will resolve N/A. If none of the outcomes above occur before January 1, 2028, the market will resolve N/A.
This market pertains only to the proceedings, verdict, and resolution by the New York Southern District Court of the specific case referenced above. Any appeals, referrals, retrials, or subsequent legal proceedings are beyond the scope of the market.
Related markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/sarius/will-bob-menendez-be-expelled-from)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrianCaulfield/will-us-senator-robert-menendez-dnj)
|
2023-09-27T17:30:32
|
2024-07-16T19:25:47
|
2024-07-16T19:25:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wnlkGtCGEDOV36d3F0KD
|
Will the 2023 UAW Strike last at least 30 days (Oct 14)?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Auto_Workers_strike
|
2023-09-27T16:15:53
|
2023-10-16T08:43:37
|
2023-10-16T08:43:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QTnoH0IdxlxRLiK6RpU2
|
Will the Milwaukee Bucks clinch the first seed in the East?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-27T14:46:17
|
2024-03-25T11:53:41
|
2024-03-25T11:53:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wCEkGKIIoQocYQECHnqh
|
Chemistry Nobel 2023 for mRNA vaccine? (October 4)
|
Resolves Yes if any of the 2023 chemistry nobel awardee are awarded for works directly related to mRNA vaccines.
In case of ambiguity, will discuss in the comments and might resolve N/A.
Nobel are likely to be announced October 4, 2023. Closing Oct. 3 for forecasting.
See also:
@/CamillePerrin/chemistry-nobel-2023-for-biology-ag
@/CamillePerrin/chemistry-nobel-2023-for-a-computat
|
2023-09-27T13:29:48
|
2023-10-03T14:59:00
|
2023-10-04T02:57:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zAPdVIUwpUMZhEy33s9i
|
Will CM Punk return to WWE at or before the Royal Rumble PLE?
|
Has to return before the PPV goes off the air. Does not have to wrestle. Has to appear on their TV or Premium Live Event. He can appear as an announcer, in the crowd, etc. OLD CLIPS DO NOT COUNT, even though that would also make an interesting market by itself.
|
2023-09-27T11:30:47
|
2023-11-25T20:12:27
|
2023-11-25T20:12:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Js2IN95sMeBDrcVrANPw
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the Super Bowl?
|
The San Francisco 49ers are the consensus sportsbook favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII as of 27 September 2023. Will they get it done?
Resolves upon the completion of Super Bowl LVIII or when the 49ers are eliminated from Super Bowl contention, whichever is sooner.
|
2023-09-27T11:19:47
|
2024-02-11T23:59:00
|
2024-02-12T19:15:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zFcweCcyq08sEDcBKozY
|
Will Biden call for Senator Menendez to resign from the Senate?
|
Either a verbal or written statement will resolve YES, whether from Biden directly or from an official White House channel (such as a press release or the press secretary).
|
2023-09-27T06:58:35
|
2024-08-20T18:07:28
|
2024-08-20T18:07:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-00BD9JD5ZG3MjzfqHsux
|
Will a soundness hole be discovered in lean4checker?
|
Resolves YES if, before market close, a test case is published that proves 0 = 1 (or similar nonsense) and passes lean4checker.
The test case must use either the latest version of Lean + lean4checker at time of publication, or the version that was available immediately beforehand. (The latter condition allows for the Lean developers fixing a hole as soon as they find it.)
Shenanigans do not count. Shenanigans can include (but are not limited to):
Redefining core types and operations
Replacing the lean4checker executable
Changing the syntax to make a true statement look like a contradiction (e.g. 0 = 1 in the trivial ring)
In the event of an ambiguity, I will try to resolve in the spirit of the market.
|
2023-09-27T06:27:19
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:01:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hFLUTUM90c1jDtcHtxZH
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the New York Giants on Monday night?
|
Giants are at home and are favored by 1.5 points
|
2023-09-27T05:52:28
|
2023-10-02T20:59:00
|
2023-10-03T05:26:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1XoLZtuAoNccGPKW0XLe
|
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-risk has been developed by December 31st, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-27T05:07:08
|
2024-01-01T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T21:07:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iX9aF89EpVhuoCxMbrAy
|
Will @ScottAlexander be active on Manifold in six months?
|
@ScottAlexander has been using Manifold a little bit more since LK-99 and Manifest. Will it continue?
Resolves YES if as of the end of March 2024, @ScottAlexander is active on manifold on least two days of each of the previous three months, that is, at least two days in each of Jan, Feb, and March 2024.
"active" means placing a bet, making a comment, or creating a market (the definition used by Manifold for daily/monthly active users, etc).
Edit: Timezone for determining day boundaries will be local time in California (PST and then PDT - daylight savings is scheduled to start March 10th)
|
2023-09-27T04:57:05
|
2024-03-01T02:21:54
|
2024-03-01T02:21:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CfGusE3nAhY0qTCxu4aM
|
Will UK Labour charge 20% VAT on private school fees within 1 year of winning election? [Potential early resolution]
|
Context: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/labour-vat-b2418375.html
[link preview]This market resolves YES if a Labour government removes private schools' VAT exempt status within 1 year of winning power. Passing legislation counts.
This market resolves NO in the following circumstances:
Labour lose the next election
Labour's manifesto for the next election does not mention private schools' VAT status (alongside a general understanding that this is because they've dropped the commitment, and not just that their manifesto is very short and doesn't mention everything)
After winning the election, the Labour leadership make it clear that they have dropped this policy.
If one of the above criteria is met, but there is significant controversy about whether the Labour party really mean it, I may leave the market open until things become clear. I will base this on my own judgement, opinions of commenters, and the current state of the market. My rule of thumb will be that if market participants think there's still a significant chance of a YES resolution, I won't resolve NO.
If the Labour leadership say before the election that they have dropped the policy, that's not enough to trigger resolution. I would wait for the manifesto in that case.
If they implement a special VAT rate that is less than the standard VAT rate, this market resolves NO. If private schools have to pay standard VAT, even if standard VAT is lowered, market resolves YES. (If the standard VAT rate is lowered, I will update the title of the market to the value of standard VAT.)
I will not bet on this market, just in case there ends up being a judgement call.
[Commentary on prediciton markets not related to UK private schools and VAT:
I think it's most "correct" on these "will X happen by Y date" markets to wait for the close date for a NO resolution, but this has the downside that NO bettors need to wait a long time for their profits. YES bettors might get paid early, which means that the return on betting YES can be better than NO, even if the market is accurately priced. I'm trying to counteract this by allowing an early NO resolution in certain clear-cut cases. Of course it's possible that Labour will drop this policy before the election, not put it in their manifesto, and then implement it anyway, but I think that's very unlikely, so hopefully this market captures the essence of "will they implement the policy" without the long wait for a NO resolution.
If I resolve NO early, I will probably create a second market for whether they'll end up implementing the policy anyway. That will probably be a much more boring market, but it will give the opportunity for anybody who thinks this market fails to reflect the question of interest to bet on that opinion.]
|
2023-09-27T02:12:12
|
2025-02-17T06:31:49
|
2025-02-17T06:31:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GPQrtguru1sg9kGPg3i4
|
China housing/real estate crisis by Sep 2024? (1000M subsidy)
|
Related to the news around Evergrande: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/evergrande-shares-set-open-down-38-amid-uncertainty-over-debt-revamp-plan-2023-09-27
Many, many analysts have predicted the impending doom of China wrt to building ghost cities, unsustainable infrastructure spending, municipal governments taking on huge loans, and an inevitable bubble.
There are plenty of articles arguing so:
NYT: China Is on Edge as Fallout From Its Real Estate Crisis Spreads
Industry report: Why China’s housing policies have failed
Reuters: China’s next debt crisis will be municipal
Bloomberg: China’s Debt-Fueled Housing Market Is Having a Meltdown, Again
If and when this will happen is a very important question, with widespread consequences and plenty of opportunity to cash in on accurate forecasting.
The question is: will there be a crisis in China in the real estate/housing/construction sector in the next year?
By 27th September 2024
If the crisis is very transient, similar to Covid in US, and everything is back to business as usual by the deadline, it's still counts as "YES"
If the Chinese governemnt takes on insanely huge loans, but prevents the crisis, that does not count as "YES"
I am intentionally vague with my definition of crisis, but here are some things that would cause me to resolve this as YES:
multiple reputable publications (e.g. Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera) writing about a construction crash, housing bubble popping, etc. Not about impending danger, but about currently ongoing stuff.
multiple large companies like Evergrande declaring bankruptcy
municipal governments defaulting on bonds
sudden drop in stock value in the sector, of at least 30% sustained over a week or more
large drop in real estate value
large drop in new units being built
[link preview]
|
2023-09-27T00:58:14
|
2024-09-22T03:12:52
|
2024-09-22T03:12:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oF6ehtRosZ6jeekPp3jB
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr run as an independent in the 2024 election?
|
https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr
The Democrat primary is essentially rigged because of super delegates and biased rules.
Resolves YES if he runs as an independent candidate.
|
2023-09-26T20:36:19
|
2023-10-09T20:30:07
|
2023-10-09T20:30:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b3qeXpQMrv2AnrUizufN
|
Will OpenAI release ChatGPT 5 before June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-26T16:05:40
|
2024-05-31T23:53:57
|
2024-05-31T23:53:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qxX5orVoQb8OxoVbryBD
|
Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) leave office before December?
|
Resolves YES if Robert Menendez leaves his office as a US Senator for any reason before December (Eastern time). Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resignation-democratic-party-senate/index.html
[link preview]
|
2023-09-26T13:54:04
|
2023-12-01T04:42:33
|
2023-12-01T04:42:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yT5LgYJD0P2hoNSGU9RY
|
Will Destiny talk to President Biden on stream before October 2023
|
Resolves YES if President Biden appears on stream and says anything to Destiny.
Resolves NO if President Biden does not appear on stream (or appears but does not address Destiny at all).
Resolves N/A if either party dies before the resolution period.
|
2023-09-26T12:06:17
|
2023-10-01T11:36:06
|
2023-10-01T11:36:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1h5BEpVIP4RJeDPqixcY
|
Will Tesla close below $200 before the end of this year?
|
Will Tesla stock close below $200 before the end of 2023? Currently the stock has several upgrades, but volatility in the stock market could challenge its growth. What will you decide?
|
2023-09-26T11:02:42
|
2023-10-30T13:01:24
|
2023-10-30T13:01:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Eqs1K2e7rIrGqjGkTlvc
|
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record before November 2023?
|
Time to beat: 16:38:377
Related September question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Dennis5a87/will-forsen-beat-xqcs-minecraft-rec-2c4f939990c2)
|
2023-09-26T10:34:57
|
2023-10-20T10:08:11
|
2023-10-20T10:08:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s7YrP0bk75cedtWbou4b
|
Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) leave office by October 31?
|
Resolves YES if Robert Menendez leaves his office as a US Senator for any reason before end of day October 31 (Eastern time). Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resignation-democratic-party-senate/index.html
[link preview]
|
2023-09-26T10:00:18
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-11-02T18:52:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P0Zv4YrCSWvN943vakIS
|
Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) resign during this term?
|
Resolves to YES if Robert Menendez resigns from the US Senate during his current term, ending January 2025. Otherwise NO. If he is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resignation-democratic-party-senate/index.html
|
2023-09-26T09:43:05
|
2024-07-23T19:25:25
|
2024-07-23T19:25:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BRwgsztEvQ1TVs81UVrC
|
DESTINY TO WATCH SECOND REPUBLICAN DEBATE ON STREAM?
|
resolves yes if destiny watches at least 2/3 of the second republican debate on stream, no matter if on youtube, kick or both, resolves October 3rd
|
2023-09-26T09:16:25
|
2023-10-03T14:59:00
|
2023-10-03T16:44:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-46NZu7Xls4NQexB0h7Jo
|
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI by the end of 2024?
|
This resolves YES if Joe Biden signs an AI EO any time before Jan 1, 2025.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order)
|
2023-09-26T08:49:25
|
2023-10-30T12:08:05
|
2023-10-30T12:08:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vUkywj0JVuWXHfTr6wcS
|
US government shutdown longer than 7 days?
|
Resolves the same as https://kalshi.com/markets/govshutlength/government-shutdown-length#govshutlength-23dec31
If (in 2023) the government is shut down for more than 7 days, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
Days will be counted by checking the source agency at 10:00 AM ET. PLEASE NOTE: If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown.
|
2023-09-26T06:32:32
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:02:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5j8DyFX8hYfo5VFkRDPB
|
US government shutdown on October 2?
|
Resolves the same as https://kalshi.com/markets/govshut/government-shutdown#govshut-23oct02
If the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government is shut down on October 02, 2023 at 10:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
|
2023-09-26T06:29:48
|
2023-10-02T20:59:00
|
2023-10-02T21:17:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jLmgrlNgQTgShwnlvg7c
|
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift be seen kissing? (by October 31)
|
Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-travis-kelce-and-taylor-swift-be-seen-kissing
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a picture or video showing Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift kissing is made public by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The picture or video must be original and not manipulated or digitally altered to mislead the viewer. Photoshopped images/videos, deepfakes, or any form of manipulated media will not be considered valid for the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market's resolution, only a kiss on the face/neck will trigger a "Yes" resolution (e.g. Swift kisses Kelce on the cheek will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be the image(s) and/or video(s) in question, verified by a consensus of credible reporting and/or Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift and their representatives.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-26T06:28:41
|
2023-10-24T05:41:37
|
2023-10-24T05:41:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hNqvClQZWT2VeKjnR2Wr
|
Will there be a new mass mobilization in Russia by mid-March 2024?
|
The Russian army seems to have a manpower problem (again). The mobilization law is still in force, reports suggest that there are not enough volunteers, but, after the unpopularity of last September's mass mobilization, the authorities are hesitant to conduct another wave - especially before the presidential elections which are to take place on March 17, 2024.
This market resolves yes if there is a consensus by independent/Western media about a mass mobilization. The mobilization has to start before March 17, but I will only resolve at the end of March so that reports of a possible mobilization have time to surface.
UPD. Neither volunteers nor conscripts count for the purposes of this market's resolutions.
|
2023-09-26T00:09:34
|
2024-03-31T14:59:00
|
2024-04-01T03:57:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FeW5uVAeqpoZq6jrE1Nn
|
Will the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate be interrupted?
|
Sporting events and awards are often interrupted by protestors and streakers. Will the same happen at the September 27, 2023 GOP Presidential debate?
This market resolves to YES if a person causes an interruption that:
The person was not authorized by the debate organizers to do,
Is not an extension of something that the person was authorized to do,
Is intentional,
Is obvious to the average viewer and,
Occurs while the debate is LIVE, on air.
The market resolves to N/A if the debate is cancelled, and to NO otherwise.
Examples of YES resolutions:
A protestor begins shouting from the back of the hall, causing the moderators to briefly pause
UAW picketers hold signs that block the cameras, causing the production crew to move or switch angles
A streaker grabs a microphone and is tackled onstage
A hacker changes the graphics in the background
Examples of insufficient actions:
A protestor shouts one word, but is removed by security and none of the candidates notice
A questioner rambles on for 30 seconds about an unrelated topic
A power outage occurs because of a lightning strike
Return from a commercial break is delayed because of protests
Shocking breaking news causes everyone in the hall to stop
See other crazy prop bets on this debate in my list of questions.
RESOLUTION: There were no interruptions to this debate, so this question resolves NO. Source: I watched the full debate.
|
2023-09-25T16:08:40
|
2023-09-27T20:59:00
|
2023-09-28T04:29:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CEGiLhmEAKScCxsr3wIk
|
Will Destiny talk to Joe Biden by September 25th?
|
Resolves yes if Destiny talks to Joe Biden by September 25th 2024.
|
2023-09-25T14:22:22
|
2024-09-25T09:46:00
|
2024-09-25T10:56:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pD6Nd7l9u4E0ZufMwApL
|
Will Joseph Bankman be in custody any time through 2024?
|
Jail, Prison, House Arrest, or other type of custody. Minimum time: 1 hour.
|
2023-09-25T14:14:53
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T00:10:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OCO1GXzw6dx1Bzspdxgg
|
Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 10 days from Oct 2 - Oct 13?
|
We only care about the integer part cutting off any fraction without rounding.. We are only referring to the closing price.
This is for a timespan of 10 days. If there is a holiday or other day without a unique closing price in the interval due to the market not having been open, we will extend the deadline to get another day until there are 10 days included.
If after the week, from within the ten closing prices, every decimal digit appears at least once, this resolves YES. Otherwise NO. It can resolve early.
Example prices:
day 1: closes at 127.45 -> 1,2,7 seen
day 2: closes at 139.9907 -> 1,2,3,7,9 seen
Etc
If all seen by the end, YES, otherwise NO
|
2023-09-25T13:57:11
|
2023-10-13T23:59:00
|
2023-10-14T10:27:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-armOGrYvpC3sCnpst5eD
|
Will Elon’s new startup xAI launch a publically accessible AI model (not waitlist) before the end of 2023?
|
PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION
Users should be able to download the app or access the web-app from a browser. The app has to be available in atleast two different countries and there should not be any other requirements to access the app other than geographical.
Edit: A product available only to X premium users would resolve this question to yes since in theory anyone can pay to use it.
EditTwo: If the product is in the middle of being rolled-out to users it doesn’t count. The roll-out has to be completed.
|
2023-09-25T10:09:35
|
2023-12-18T14:59:00
|
2023-12-18T15:26:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JrCXQKElbX9oXbrs4AjV
|
Will Bitcoin trade >= 30000$ on the 1st of Jan at 00:00 2024 CEST?
|
I know that the price sometimes differs on exchanges.
For the sake of this market we will only consider the price shown on Binance and Coinbase Pro weighting both with 0.5.
So the resolution critera is
price-on-binance * 0.5 + price-on-coinbase * 0.5 = price
|
2023-09-25T09:28:32
|
2024-01-01T11:20:37
|
2024-01-01T11:20:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-01CthIwwunfdKY5GZuYn
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks swoop the New York Giants?
|
YES if Seahawks win. NO if Giants win or tie.
|
2023-09-25T09:09:16
|
2023-10-02T20:42:55
|
2023-10-02T20:42:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fc70ZEvgWinDmX4NJRrp
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Cleveland Browns?
|
YES if Ravens win. NO if Browns win or tie.
|
2023-09-25T09:06:40
|
2023-10-01T20:59:00
|
2023-10-01T21:15:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wKKrq3pto2WpY7SRnJZ7
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the New York Jets?
|
YES if Chiefs win. NO if Jets win or tie.
|
2023-09-25T09:02:20
|
2023-10-01T20:59:00
|
2023-10-01T21:15:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X7ZrnLHW5iIDD1knqup3
|
Will the Detroit Lions prey on the Green Bay Packers?
|
YES if Lions win. NO if Packers win or tie.
|
2023-09-25T09:00:32
|
2023-09-28T20:19:36
|
2023-09-28T20:19:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LZxKExKkjuOkady2qeNh
|
Will Jimmy Carter survive the Fall?
|
Astronomical Fall 2023 Sept 23 to Dec 21
|
2023-09-25T08:15:56
|
2023-12-21T05:57:08
|
2023-12-21T05:57:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zpMbFCONp92ZqzQfyxWz
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 26th September than it closed on 25th September?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 26th September than it did on Monday 25th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-09-25T07:35:33
|
2023-09-26T08:30:00
|
2023-09-26T09:10:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GwWqUCT0Fh0B5iMqQTna
|
Will Sen. Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party by Nov. 30?
|
Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/509
|
2023-09-25T07:20:02
|
2023-11-30T14:30:00
|
2023-12-01T16:27:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TZERFDK93Vr8jafyDSAq
|
Have OpenAI achieved AGI internally?
|
Context: https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1706078819617063304?s=20
[tweet]Resolves YES if it's revealed that OpenAI had achieved AGI internally before the creation of this market.
I'll use OpenAI's AGI definition: "By AGI, we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.".
|
2023-09-25T04:13:33
|
2024-07-31T07:29:00
|
2024-07-31T15:11:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KpuXnp7XwsxNwOtQQP9b
|
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Philippe bring Tropical Storm force winds to Bermuda?
|
Background
Here is yet another episode of Bermuda tropical cyclone markets (previous ones here and here). According to different model forecasts, the path of Tropical Storm Philippe carries strong uncertainty beyond the next 2-3 days.
Per NHC:
"Philippe should continue west-northwestward over the next day or two, steered along the southern side of a mid-level ridge. In about 2 days, all models depict a weakness developing in the ridge, but the track guidance diverges quite drastically, and it is directly related to the intensity of the system. A deeper, stronger system, like the GFS depicts, will feel the weakness in the ridge and curve the system faster on a more northwestward track. However, a weaker, shallow cyclone, like the ECMWF depicts, will cause the system to continue on a west-northwestward or even westward track. The NHC track forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance, and lies close to both the simple and corrected consensus aids. This remains a low confidence track and intensity forecast."
[image]Will Philippe pound Bermuda with inclement weather shortly after Lee, or will its impact mostly be confined to the fishies?
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Philippe brings tropical-storm-level winds (>34 knots, >39 mph) to any part of Bermuda while maintaining tropical characteristics.
Resolves NO if Philippe dissipates or becomes extratropical before the fulfilment of the condition for YES.
Will resolve based on Bermuda Weather Service and/or the National Hurricane Center data.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.
|
2023-09-25T03:11:53
|
2023-10-06T17:00:00
|
2023-10-06T21:49:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C67BlQP5Jj2ljKalnRZW
|
Will Tesla begin using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles before January 1, 2025?
|
On April 7, 2022, a display for the product was featured at the Tesla Giga Texas manufacturing facility during the Cyber Rodeo event. Musk said that he hopes to have the robot production-ready by 2023 and claimed Optimus will eventually be able to do "anything that humans don’t want to do."
In June 2022, Musk announced the first prototype that Tesla hopes to unveil later in 2022 at the second AI Day event will not look anything like the display model at Cyber Rodeo.
In September 2022, semi-functional prototypes of Optimus were displayed at Tesla's second AI Day. One prototype was able to walk about the stage and another, sleeker version could move its arms.
On September 23, 2023, Tesla posted a video of Optimus manipulating and sorting objects as well as yoga poses:
Optimus can now sort objects autonomously 🤖
Its neural network is trained fully end-to-end: video in, controls out.
Come join to help develop Optimus (& improve its yoga routine 🧘)
→ tesla.com/AI
https://x.com/tesla_optimus/status/1705728820693668189?s=46&t=qfz6dEzytObZisI2GEll9g
RESOLUTION: This market will resolve YES if Tesla begins using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles to be sold to customers before January 1, 2025. This question resolves NO if Tesla does NOT begin using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles before January 1, 2025.
DISCLAIMER: I may place a bet on this market, but will certainly resolve this question fairly.
IMPORTANT: Based on the spirit and straightforward meaning of the question, it should be fairly clear that Optimus is/are being used in a functional way, and one that replaces either human or traditional robotic tasks on the production line. If Optimus is being used in a superfluous way just for marketing purposes or for testing only, the market should resolve as NO.
|
2023-09-25T00:43:21
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T14:05:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rwrPXT15ct1tPtG1JvL8
|
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on September 25 than it closed on September 24?
|
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $26,250.20
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:
profits on this leaderboard.
1st = 3,000
2nd = 2,000
3rd = 1,000
4th = 750
5th = 600
6th = 420
7th = 300
8th = 250
9th = 200
10th = 100
@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-24T19:52:42
|
2023-09-25T19:08:09
|
2023-09-25T19:09:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YVNQZ0QUWPppOwwoMfxN
|
Will there be a new marathon world record at the Chicago Marathon in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if there is a new marathon world record in EITHER the men's or women's race at the 2023 Chicago Marathon.
|
2023-09-24T17:50:17
|
2023-10-08T09:03:32
|
2023-10-08T09:03:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y39j7rkAz4bEq4Itolz4
|
Will "The Marvels" exceed $500M at the box office?
|
Answer will be determined by the box office mojo worldwide grosses. Closes 3 months following its release.
|
2023-09-24T17:42:26
|
2024-03-10T18:47:00
|
2024-03-10T19:50:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uz0rULLTTJcZxpubKPFr
|
Will xAI overtake OpenAI as the leader in AI research by the end of 2024?
|
This question is a copy of this market except resolving at the beginning of 2025.
[link preview]Resolution will depend on benchmark performances and the creator's judgement, which will take into account motor skills, computational efficiency, and subjective general intelligence. Expert opinion may also be considered if the creator deems them to be reasonably unbiased.
This market resolves at 50% if the performance on benchmarks is approximately equal (i.e., less than 3-5% performance and/or evaluated performance significantly overlaps.
|
2023-09-24T16:48:20
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-21T21:40:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LVaiXcYMig5dD1Dg2Nm9
|
NFL Week 4 : Scorigami ; Will Any Games Score Fill In A Blank On The Chart For Winning Score/Losing Score?
|
Official Scorigami Tracker
To Resolve YES:
A White Box Must Get Filled To Achieve A "Scorigami" In Week 2 Games Played September 28th-October 2nd 2023.
To Resolve NO:
An Already Shaded Box Is Filled Resulting In No "Scorigami"
What is Scorigami?
Scorigami is a concept thought up by Jon Bois. It is the art of building final scores that have never happened before in NFL history. Due to the unique nature of how points are scored in (American) Football, where it is impossible to score 1 point on its own, as well as the rarity of the 2 point safety and 8 point touchdown and 2 point conversion, there are a lot of scores that are possible, but have never happened. For more info, check out the video made by Jon Bois about Scorigami below.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/9l5C8cGMueY)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-09-24T13:26:29
|
2023-10-02T20:59:00
|
2023-10-02T23:11:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ge9vY2gpDQ9AhC3yd1DB
|
Will Kalshi be able to legally offer US election markets by 2030?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-24T12:54:50
|
2024-10-03T16:20:27
|
2024-10-03T16:20:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bdFzfQnn9XZ296Xoi9Sa
|
Will Google Gemini perform better (text) than GPT-4?
|
"perform better" refers to the text performance only, to keep it simple. To be comparable the performance should be equal or extremely close across a wide range of benchmarks (e.g. MMLU, HumanEval, WinoGrande) and chat/agent tests (e.g. MT-Bench). It should also have at least 8k context length (chosen since GPT-4 has 8k and 32k context length versions).
Of course, to qualify as YES, the group that develops a competitor must publicly announce that they trained an LLM with the benchmark results, or make an API available to external evaluators. If Gemini is released exclusively through a chat interface and the only benchmarks are internal to Google, then this market will resolve N/A because of a lack of sufficient information.
Market will resolve as soon as we can get accurate evaluations for Gemini after it releases. The only situation in which this market should make it to its end date is if Gemini is not released to external evaluators by EOY 2024.
GPT-4's reference results will be the GPT-4 API at the time of Gemini evaluation (i.e. same month). If GPT-4.5 releases, this will not be considered.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution: YES based on Gemini 1.5 Pro 002 vs GPT-4o
Benchmarks: Google Developers Blog
|
2023-09-24T12:03:42
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-02T13:04:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4CsmrAtuOGoZ6lcD7Xb7
|
Will President Biden still be a candidate for president on Jan. 31?
|
Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/510
|
2023-09-24T11:49:18
|
2024-01-31T14:30:00
|
2024-01-31T23:20:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4U1caJMpVTLVqrVj5BQh
|
Will Donald Trump announce his running mate for the 2024 election by Oct. 31?
|
Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/537
|
2023-09-24T10:35:23
|
2023-10-31T14:30:00
|
2023-11-08T06:33:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YhYJ9Lc2lBBhoST1PKTU
|
Will Tim Scott still be a Republican candidate for president on Oct. 31?
|
Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/522
|
2023-09-24T10:30:36
|
2023-10-31T14:30:00
|
2023-10-31T19:31:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c4N9W25u2fW10LItMPAJ
|
Will Asa Hutchinson still be a Republican candidate for president on Oct. 31?
|
Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/521
|
2023-09-24T10:30:30
|
2023-10-31T14:30:00
|
2023-11-04T00:09:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KqBd702u291oE19puDb5
|
Will AI be capable of completing The Legend of Zelda (NES) with no prior knowledge by Sept. 21, 2024?
|
A few days ago, Twitter user Liron Shapira posted the following challenge:
[tweet]To which I replied:
[tweet]Will I be correct in predicting that AI will not have this capability within 12 months? This market resolves YES if a bot of any kind is shown to have completed The Legend of Zelda for the NES within 12 months of the date of the original Tweet (which will be September 21, 2024), and NO otherwise.
Considerations:
The playthrough must begin at console boot, and is considered to have completed the game upon touching Princess Zelda in Level 9.
Any official release of the game is okay.
Since this was intended as a test of the bot's "reasoning" and "planning" abilities, the bot should spend at least 5 minutes actually playing the game. This is meant to prevent it from using any ACE-like techniques that allow it to skip most of the game without having to reason or plan. (Although if it discovers a method of completing the game in under 5 minutes, I will be duly impressed nonetheless.)
Although the original Tweet suggested that LLMs should be involved in some way, I won't worry about that. It doesn't matter if the bot makes use of LLM techniques, or neural networks, or even machine learning. If someone comes up with a purely symbolic script capable of completing Z1, I'll happily resolve that as YES (and count it as a victory for symbolic algorithms over ML). The only requirement is that it shouldn't have any pre-existing knowledge about the game hardcoded, either in its actual code or in the weights of any neural network it makes use of. (This includes being trained on gameplay recordings of the game.)
It's fine if the bot "reads" the game manual before starting its playthrough, in whatever format the developers choose to present it.
It's fine if the bot is trained on gameplay recordings of other games, as long as it has not been exposed to Z1 specifically.
It doesn't matter what the bot's success rate is, as long as it has been documented to complete the game at least once before the close date.
It doesn't matter how long it takes the bot to complete the game, as long as it does so at least once before the close date.
[Added 2023/09/24] See my long post in the comments for some discussion of what "prior knowledge" entails. Basically, isolated factoids about puzzles in the game are fine; fine-grained knowledge about the shape of the map is not. If, for some reason, this bot requires an LLM, and all existing general-purpose LLMs of sufficient capabilities already have the game memorized at a fine-grained level, it's acceptable to run this test on ROM hacks or something that they do not have memorized.
I will not be betting in this market.
|
2023-09-24T10:28:28
|
2024-09-21T20:59:00
|
2024-10-09T19:16:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MriIsablduJ8eVh4p0lB
|
Will Nikki Haley still be a Republican candidate for president on Oct. 31?
|
Resolves by the same question posed by Fox News' America Predicts here: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/520
|
2023-09-24T10:25:34
|
2023-10-31T14:30:00
|
2023-10-31T19:31:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QfOS1T7nk1uWs7hEUbAT
|
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will the drivers finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd all be from different teams at the Qatar Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if each position on the podium is occupied by a driver from a different team, e.g. 1st - MV (Red Bull), 2nd - LN (McLaren), 3rd - LH (Mercedes).
The market is not inclusive of post-race penalties, so will resolve YES still even if a penalty investigation is started after the race finish, and then applied after the race that changes the podium positions.
(This is for the Sunday race, not the sprint)
|
2023-09-24T08:20:37
|
2023-10-08T12:17:26
|
2023-10-08T12:17:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IqmgxJhf7pskfC9IlKqS
|
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will there be 2 or more safety cars (including VSCs) in the race at the Qatar Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if there are 2 safety cars (either actual safety car or virtual safety car) or more during the race on Sunday at the Qatar Grand Prix.
|
2023-09-24T08:14:58
|
2023-10-08T12:17:39
|
2023-10-08T12:17:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GwAoGMzrPNc5uUrkVP5Q
|
Will Elon Musk sell twitter by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-24T05:22:02
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T22:00:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Jzzqwbukh4dMamJa2wQr
|
Will China declined the invitation to the AI Safety Summit host in UK?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-24T02:34:02
|
2023-11-01T13:04:41
|
2023-11-01T13:04:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BHnlosTc4JSj2DJUFxIh
|
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the Qatar GP 2023
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-23T23:45:15
|
2023-10-08T11:32:54
|
2023-10-08T11:33:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8m4L1L8K841m1DFvwfn5
|
Which Of These 2 Racers Will Finish 2nd In The 2023 F1 Drivers Standings? Lewis Hamilton Or Sergio Perez.
|
The question should be clear enough for nearly no description. (I may edit if needed based on comments for any clarifying aspects)
Official 2023 Drivers Standings
This will NOT resolve until the end of the final race of the 2023 season for any reason.
YES: Lewis Hamilton 2nd
NO: Sergio Perez 2nd
N/A: Other Driver
50/50: Tie
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-09-23T23:44:50
|
2023-11-19T04:22:57
|
2023-11-19T04:22:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xhCVZNHJOFChQKjLSFDd
|
Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar GP 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-23T23:40:56
|
2023-10-08T11:31:58
|
2023-10-08T11:32:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jsquvTeXebTh86zWW38P
|
Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2024?
|
I'll use similar criteria as the embedded question, but please note I won't consider cost.
Lab-grown meat will qualify as accessible if it meats any of these
available in more than 5 stores of a major grocery chain (Walmart, Kroger, Safeway, etc.) or
available at more than ten specialty stores or
can be purchased and delivered online.
Edit 2023-09-28: If the cultivated meat has strictly limited supply this won't count.
Some examples of things that would not count as easily accessible:
a piece of cultivated meat is sold on eBay
a website sells cultivated meat, but there's a waitlist
a website sells cultivated meat, but it sells out after a 24 hour period
However, if that website has cultivated available for a period longer than 24 hours, this would resolve YES
Unlike the embedded question that inspired this question, I'm only interested in access and not how expensive the lab-grown meat is relative to animal-sourced meat.
I won't trade in this market.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/bcongdon/will-a-cell-cultured-meat-product-b)
|
2023-09-23T21:54:45
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-10T14:19:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wMss636N57tnCrh8ooVJ
|
Will the writers strike be resolved with a deal between WGA and AMPTP by October 15th
|
https://deadline.com/2023/09/writers-strike-deal-close-1235554418/
[link preview]
|
2023-09-23T20:00:06
|
2023-09-27T21:39:22
|
2023-09-27T21:39:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KLIKrTdmXGzTvAk0rYj2
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Destiny have another in-depth discussion before the end of 2024?
|
They had their first at Manifest, and didn't have enough time to get through everything it seemed they wanted to talk about.
In order to count for this market, it must be streamed or recorded somewhere, and last at least half an hour.
|
2023-09-23T18:06:36
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00
|
2025-01-01T16:20:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ECLOinFenKVcCIZlXMRo
|
Will U.S. Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) still be in office by the end of 2023?
|
One of America's most resilient politicians is facing a tough new scandal.
https://dnyuz.com/2023/09/23/does-robert-menendez-have-enough-teflon-to-survive-again/
[link preview]UPDATE (01/01/2024 at 12:20 am Eastern): Senator Menendez remains in office. Resolving this as 'YES.' Thank you for participating in this market.
|
2023-09-23T17:38:40
|
2023-12-31T21:24:03
|
2023-12-31T21:24:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m67I2ESkTndett2wnEXA
|
Will "The One Ring" be banned in Commander by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-23T16:18:52
|
2024-12-31T16:16:00
|
2025-01-04T08:30:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IoRpVjoyKMTIDGRU1IN5
|
By October 15th will Vaush have pledged to join/support destiny's canvassing efforts?
|
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Kw8bTwUTwg?t=1375)Context: Destiny talked about trying to convince Vaush or the Majority Report to join his canvassing efforts for the upcoming election.
If Vaush makes a serious offer to help Destiny's canvassing in a meaningful, concrete way, then this market will resolve Yes.
For the resolution of this market it won't matter if Destiny accepts the offer or not.
Similarly if Destiny doesn't ask him for help, then this market still resolves solely based on Vaush's actions.
If a serious offer is made but later rescinded this still resolves Yes.
|
2023-09-23T14:29:06
|
2023-10-15T14:59:00
|
2023-10-15T23:53:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0AYdJAt7329mk46tZT0o
|
By October 15th will The Majority Report have pledged to join/support destiny's canvassing efforts?
|
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Kw8bTwUTwg?t=1375)Context: Destiny talked about trying to convince Vaush or the Majority Report to join his canvassing efforts for the upcoming election.
If The Majority Report makes a serious offer to help Destiny's canvassing in a meaningful, concrete way, then this market will resolve Yes.
For the resolution of this market it won't matter if destiny accepts the offer or not.
Similarly if destiny doesn't ask them for help, then this market still resolves solely based on The Majority Report's actions.
If a serious offer is made but later rescinded this still resolves Yes.
|
2023-09-23T13:25:29
|
2023-10-15T14:59:00
|
2023-10-15T23:53:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RwR0roHNOnstmUA0E34b
|
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Philippe strengthen into a hurricane?
|
Background
Another Cabo Verde cyclone, Tropical Storm Philippe (formerly 90L and Tropical Depression Seventeen), has developed a well-defined center and deep convection and is now classified as a Tropical Storm. Does it have what it takes to reach hurricane strength?
[image]Most forecast models had predicted Tropical Depression Seventeen to at least reach Tropical Storm strength (which it did), but for now only a few predicted a peak Hurricane strength. Notably, HAFS-A, one of the newer-generation basin-focused regional models, predicted a Category 1 strength in 5 days.
[image]Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Tropical Storm Philippe reaches Category 1 hurricane strength (33–42 m/s,; 64–82 kt; 119–153 km/h; 74–95 mph) during its lifetime as a tropical cyclone.
Resolves NO if the conditions for YES are not satisfied before the tropical cyclone dissipates or becomes extratropical.
Will resolve based on NHC advisories.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.
|
2023-09-23T09:30:35
|
2023-10-06T09:30:00
|
2023-10-06T09:54:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f1jm3j7BBkAAPvjp01p9
|
Will the US start using frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s military?
|
Larry Summers had a great idea. By end of 2024.
|
2023-09-23T08:04:44
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T17:11:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0LuoCaEUsmAcsWYga21s
|
Will there be a Nicki Minaj collab on 1989 (Taylor’s Version)?
|
Resolves when the album comes out. (The track list has already been released, with no mention of Nicki Minaj.)
Market created because of (mild) controversy on
(https://manifold.markets/embed/XavierW/will-nicki-minaj-be-announced-as-fe)General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-09-23T07:38:02
|
2023-10-26T21:22:42
|
2023-10-26T21:22:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Kd2NgWQpHVcSBpQqTLjj
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy get to make a final stand?
|
Presidential nominations often narrow down as candidates drop out of the race. After Super Tuesday, a point arrives where there are usually only two viable candidates remaining, and the candidates who have dropped out usually endorse one of the remaining two.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy outlast everyone else and be one of the two who make a last stand for the nomination?
This market will resolve to YES when all candidates other than Vivek Ramaswamy and someone else have suspended their campaigns for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination.
The market resolves to NO when Ramaswamy suspends his campaign with two or more other candidates remaining.
The market resolves to N/A when some event occurs that renders the Republican nomination meaningless, such as the dissolution of the party.
RESOLUTION: Ramaswamy suspended his campaign on January 16, 2024, while Nikky Haley (at least) was still running, so this market resolves to NO.
|
2023-09-23T07:00:07
|
2024-01-16T06:10:35
|
2024-01-16T06:10:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qCN5CCHxOSJwDgpuwAsL
|
[AFL] Will Collingwood defeat Brisbane in the Grand Final at the MCG on September 30th?
|
Resolves on the winner of the match as officially declared by the AFL.
YES if Collingwood wins, NO if Brisbane wins.
This market resolves on the final result of the match, including any points scored during extra time, or any other officially recognised tie-breaking mechanism.
Provisions for extra time in finals matches are designed to make draws impossible under current rules. In the unlikely event that the match is nonetheless officially declared a draw by the AFL, this market resolves NO.
If the match is cancelled and not rescheduled within 7 days, the market resolves N/A. If the match is temporarily halted but resumes on the same day, the final result of the continued match is considered for resolution.
The match's date and location in the title are indicative and are not part of the resolution criteria. If the match is rescheduled or relocated, the title and close date will be updated accordingly.
In the rare event of a rematch being announced after the original match's conclusion, this market will resolve on the outcome of the first match unless the AFL declares the initial result invalid on the same day. In such a scenario, the market will resolve N/A.
|
2023-09-23T03:30:09
|
2023-09-30T00:23:48
|
2023-09-30T00:23:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mHnWC3V5mY1Ej0derLfp
|
Will trump tweet again before the end of 2023?
|
Trump's last tweet was in August. Will he post again before the end of the year?
|
2023-09-23T01:59:47
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:34:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rlvbl6crSlJhEwICFrEN
|
Will OpenAI allow users to create bots with custom instruction messages through the ChatGPT app (before 2024)?
|
Background Information
Peo.com allows users to create custom AI bots with their unique custom instruction. For example, users can create a bot for assisting with language learning or writing midjourney prompts. I am wondering if OpenAI will add a similar functionality to ChatGPT.
Resolution Criteria
The question resolves to yes, if OpenAI releases a feature that allows users to create bots based on a custom instruction. If the feature is being slowly rolled out and is available through a waiting list this would suffice. Users have to be able to easily create these custom bots through either the web or phone app.
|
2023-09-23T01:56:35
|
2023-11-08T02:27:22
|
2023-11-08T02:27:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6FFGJDaSDYHbh2UZxDAn
|
Will any AI model generate image of correct QWERTY keyboard consistently, to a prompt, by the end of 2024?
|
Must be to a prompt, not an iterative process or a conversation.
Must be consistent, as in, reusing the prompt also works at least 10% (bare minimum) of the time. I will not even consider anything less consistent.
As long as it can generate the English Alphabet keys in the correct order, I will consider it. If the A-Z is correct but the shift key and the caps lock key are swapped, that is counted as well.
For reference, i am refering to this layout:
[image]The prompt must not tell the model the correct layout.
|
2023-09-23T00:56:45
|
2024-01-03T11:10:50
|
2024-01-03T11:10:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WEO92FfvtDMMzmaX1Kp1
|
Will Bob Menendez be expelled from the Senate?
|
Resolves YES if Sen. Menendez of NJ is expelled from the Senate at any point of the 118th United States Congress. Resolves according to major media coverage.
|
2023-09-22T16:02:26
|
2024-08-20T14:18:38
|
2024-08-20T14:18:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tcg2EvHYWsNp4rXlQOcS
|
Will there be a GPT-4 Instruct model released in 2023?
|
Context:
[image]Resolves YES if OpenAI releases a GPT-4-based InstructGPT in 2023. NO otherwise.
This should be a model that follows instructions and doesn't try to "chat" with you. Relevant evidences could be explicit claims that it is InstructGPT-based, the model name("gpt-4-instruct"), or the style of output clearly matching a known InstructGPT.
|
2023-09-22T16:01:04
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:11:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oDkXQHycbxQVbFbhcmEa
|
Will Ophelia become a hurricane?
|
Resolves YES if the NHC designates TS Ophelia as a Hurricane at any point in the next 7 days.
|
2023-09-22T14:51:11
|
2023-09-29T14:59:00
|
2023-09-29T15:16:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iY7EHlDv9pkbzbHbyM1v
|
Will Donald Trump lose at least one state by the end of Super Tuesday in the 2024 Republican primary?
|
This question resolves to YES if another candidate receives a larger share of the statewide popular vote in any contest through March 5, 2024.
——————
Bettors are encouraged to vote on my other market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CanOfBeans/will-donald-trump-win-a-majority-of)
|
2023-09-22T13:24:21
|
2024-03-05T19:48:39
|
2024-03-05T19:48:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HE30fM6Vfs6HPgOtRMOv
|
Will GPT-3.5 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (2023)
|
Resolves YES if someone finds a fixed prompt as defined in the main market that succeeds at solving any Sudoku puzzle listed at Sudoku - Free daily Sudoku games from the Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) that was generated after the comment was posted.
You are allowed to experiment with ChatGPT, but judging will be done with the API with temperature set to 0 for reproducibility.
Any puzzle - easy, medium, or hard - will qualify. No other puzzle provider is allowed for this market.
Solution must be posted in the comments of any Manifold market in the "GPT-4 Sudoku Challenge" group in 2023, and later confirmation of solution must also be posted in the comments. Market creator will not proactively check solutions against every new puzzle, but will check solutions that are found and posted.
Any variant of GPT-3.5 is allowed: ChatGPT(using the green icon), gpt-3.5-turbo, gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct
Finetuning GPT-3.5 is not allowed.
The number of turns is raised to 200, so the 4k context matches the 32k context GPT-4 in token count.
Related markets
Main market: @/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to
GPT-3.5 no finetuning: @/Mira/will-gpt35-solve-any-freshlygenerat
GPT-3.5 finetuning allowed: @/Mira/will-finetuned-gpt35-solve-any-fres
GPT-4: @/Mira/m100-subsidy-will-gpt4-solve-any-fr-c5b090d547d1
|
2023-09-22T12:27:46
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:58:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7Hxgimo0LWlk37voZoUI
|
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before October 2024?
|
In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel. It must:
Be at least 60,000 words.
Be interesting, not some attempt to game the system like "Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said "1", then "2", then "3", then "4"..." It must seem like something a human might write if they were trying to write a good novel.
Not have obvious continuity errors.
Be created from a single input prompt, no further prompting or human error-correction. (If it's an automated prompting, like telling it "write the next chapter" over and over, that's fine. The prompts just can't be providing any help or suggestions.)
It does not have to be "good" in a literary sense.
|
2023-09-22T12:25:12
|
2024-10-01T23:59:00
|
2024-11-10T17:39:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NwggSdq7LRLdragr5Pxa
|
Will any robot be able to ride a normal full-size bicycle like a human can by the end of 2024?
|
Already been done on a tiny bike.
It must do it entirely by balance on the bicycle seat, the same way a human would. It can't have propellors, reaction wheels, parts in contact with the ground, or other such cheating. It does not need to be humanoid.
It must be able to ride any normal human bicycle; the bike can't be specially designed for it. (It's ok if it fails on a more esoteric design or a bike with broken parts.) It only needs to ride it on a flat surface, but it needs to be able to do so for at least 30 seconds. It must be able to pedal forwards at >10mph.
|
2023-09-22T11:56:33
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T12:21:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AAfeYptnvrrw7WqZrqIE
|
Will an AI-powered dating app significantly improve on the current state of the art by October 2024?
|
It must be noticibly better than current mass market dating apps. Maybe the AI asks personalized questions to each participant in order to find people to pair them up with, maybe it asks for a video of them, maybe it asks for access to their dating and/or porn history, or any other approach. It just needs to clearly be leveraging the power of contemporary AI to improve matching.
|
2023-09-22T11:49:25
|
2024-10-01T23:59:00
|
2024-12-29T18:44:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PQlIoZDMX6qEFlVATluT
|
Will Bob Menendez be re-elected to the Senate in New Jersey?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-22T10:24:12
|
2024-08-20T21:00:25
|
2024-08-20T21:00:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bD8yVb8rS1VOdioNrHiJ
|
Will Canada sanction India by December 21?
|
Background
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/22/canada-plunges-deeper-into-diplomatic-crisis-with-india_6138515_4.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially imposes any form of sanctions against India between September 21, 3 PM ET and December 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The sanctions could include measures like trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-22T09:39:39
|
2023-12-21T06:38:55
|
2023-12-21T06:38:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nGBdpFH2ab3ocECDwAaB
|
Will Canada sanction India by November 21?
|
Background
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/22/canada-plunges-deeper-into-diplomatic-crisis-with-india_6138515_4.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially imposes any form of sanctions against India between September 21, 3 PM ET and November 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The sanctions could include measures like trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-22T09:39:21
|
2023-11-22T20:59:00
|
2023-11-24T08:06:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tBEHbFIoZn3fyQtrOnIm
|
Will Canada sanction India by October 31?
|
Background
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/22/canada-plunges-deeper-into-diplomatic-crisis-with-india_6138515_4.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially imposes any form of sanctions against India between September 21, 3 PM ET and October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The sanctions could include measures like trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-22T09:38:52
|
2023-11-01T19:53:30
|
2023-11-01T19:53:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xBKWlWZiawauc6S3crqx
|
Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
|
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876
[link preview]
|
2023-09-22T08:45:33
|
2023-10-17T07:08:19
|
2023-10-17T07:08:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0zuLCoEUDz87LId0mwLf
|
Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2023?
|
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876
[link preview]
|
2023-09-22T08:44:59
|
2023-10-17T06:38:56
|
2023-10-17T06:38:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uV4zrrIXfR3yDRl0zTuK
|
Will Bob Menendez announce his resignation from the Senate by 12/31/2023?
|
The resignation need not be effective by 12/31 to resolve to yes, only an announcement of a future resignation (i.e. "I announce that my last day in the Senate will be Jan 1st 2024" would resolve as YES if resignation statement is made in 2023).
|
2023-09-22T07:27:45
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:48:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9iHmf6I0jZobXhORkRKf
|
Will North Korea launch an ICBM by the end of October?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-21T21:59:42
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-10-31T22:09:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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