id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-Il6B2Y5zWW4wv6J7DboV | Will True Detective S04 have an average IMDB rating >8.23 on April 30th 2024? | Last season currently averages at 8.23, will Season 4 beat it?
To resolve, I will check ratings at/around April 30th on this IMDB page.
[image] | 2023-09-28T03:05:22 | 2024-02-23T15:34:46 | 2024-02-23T15:34:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cPSHsrQcbs8SwvJbWnBS | Will x.com require users to pay to use the platform by the end of 2024? | Elon Musk has mentioned offhandedly that the platform will consider moving towards a subscription model for all users in order to combat bots.
See video:
https://youtu.be/Sea-Uxw5Syg?si=XtaCwWKRgxtQAray
This market does not resolve N/A.
Resolves YES if:
At any point before January 1st, 2025, twitter.com or x.com r... | 2023-09-28T02:16:47 | 2025-01-01T21:59:00 | 2025-01-03T14:22:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AgJ79TpR63AfLsO6R0M4 | Will Geoff Keighley be interrupted by yet another stage crasher at the 2023 Game Awards? [Ṁ500 Pool] | At the 2022 Game Awards, Geoff Keighley was accosted by the now-infamous "Bill Clinton Kid". At Gamescom Showcase 2023, an as-yet unrelated "GTA 6 Kid" assailed the stage in a similar fashion. Will Geoff Keighley face a third such threat at the 2023 Game Awards!?
Resolves to YES if any number of people who are not sup... | 2023-09-28T00:07:29 | 2023-12-07T20:12:58 | 2023-12-07T20:12:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YOeDpbIeQcUNyUudUUdf | Will Messenger/Whatsapp/Instagram allow people to create their own personal AIs to respond to DMs? (by the end of 2024) | either of these 3
Must be available to general public | 2023-09-27T22:20:24 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2024-12-31T15:15:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nJpFJOXbG43nSBt2ZTIE | Will the 2023 UAW Strike last at least 60 days (Nov 13) | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Auto_Workers_strike
Please see @/Ernie/does-a-labor-strike-end-when-the-wo for detail on how I will determine when a strike ends. | 2023-09-27T20:54:34 | 2023-11-14T09:35:50 | 2023-11-14T09:35:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q03Uzb7bbXTAenRmKolZ | Will Destiny call out his fellow panelists at the VidCon Panel? | Resolves YES if Destiny makes a hostile remark towards any of the panelists during the event. This takes into account the context of the statement, and to some extent the reaction of the panelists and audience.
Resolves NO if the discussion goes as planned and/or Destiny does not contribute any infighting to the event... | 2023-09-27T19:15:05 | 2023-09-30T14:14:12 | 2023-09-30T14:14:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2GAkblg6djFTvLAxFNTr | Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) be convicted? | On September 22, 2023, Robert Menendez, the senior United States Senator from New Jersey, was indicted by federal prosecutors in Manhattan. The indictment alleges that Menendez accepted bribes in exchange for using his political position to benefit three businessmen and the Egyptian government. [AP News] [New York Time... | 2023-09-27T17:30:32 | 2024-07-16T19:25:47 | 2024-07-16T19:25:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wnlkGtCGEDOV36d3F0KD | Will the 2023 UAW Strike last at least 30 days (Oct 14)? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Auto_Workers_strike | 2023-09-27T16:15:53 | 2023-10-16T08:43:37 | 2023-10-16T08:43:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QTnoH0IdxlxRLiK6RpU2 | Will the Milwaukee Bucks clinch the first seed in the East? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-27T14:46:17 | 2024-03-25T11:53:41 | 2024-03-25T11:53:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wCEkGKIIoQocYQECHnqh | Chemistry Nobel 2023 for mRNA vaccine? (October 4) | Resolves Yes if any of the 2023 chemistry nobel awardee are awarded for works directly related to mRNA vaccines.
In case of ambiguity, will discuss in the comments and might resolve N/A.
Nobel are likely to be announced October 4, 2023. Closing Oct. 3 for forecasting.
See also:
@/CamillePerrin/chemistry-nobel-2023... | 2023-09-27T13:29:48 | 2023-10-03T14:59:00 | 2023-10-04T02:57:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zAPdVIUwpUMZhEy33s9i | Will CM Punk return to WWE at or before the Royal Rumble PLE? | Has to return before the PPV goes off the air. Does not have to wrestle. Has to appear on their TV or Premium Live Event. He can appear as an announcer, in the crowd, etc. OLD CLIPS DO NOT COUNT, even though that would also make an interesting market by itself.
| 2023-09-27T11:30:47 | 2023-11-25T20:12:27 | 2023-11-25T20:12:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Js2IN95sMeBDrcVrANPw | Will the San Francisco 49ers win the Super Bowl? | The San Francisco 49ers are the consensus sportsbook favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII as of 27 September 2023. Will they get it done?
Resolves upon the completion of Super Bowl LVIII or when the 49ers are eliminated from Super Bowl contention, whichever is sooner. | 2023-09-27T11:19:47 | 2024-02-11T23:59:00 | 2024-02-12T19:15:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zFcweCcyq08sEDcBKozY | Will Biden call for Senator Menendez to resign from the Senate? | Either a verbal or written statement will resolve YES, whether from Biden directly or from an official White House channel (such as a press release or the press secretary). | 2023-09-27T06:58:35 | 2024-08-20T18:07:28 | 2024-08-20T18:07:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-00BD9JD5ZG3MjzfqHsux | Will a soundness hole be discovered in lean4checker? | Resolves YES if, before market close, a test case is published that proves 0 = 1 (or similar nonsense) and passes lean4checker.
The test case must use either the latest version of Lean + lean4checker at time of publication, or the version that was available immediately beforehand. (The latter condition allows for the ... | 2023-09-27T06:27:19 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:01:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hFLUTUM90c1jDtcHtxZH | Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the New York Giants on Monday night? | Giants are at home and are favored by 1.5 points | 2023-09-27T05:52:28 | 2023-10-02T20:59:00 | 2023-10-03T05:26:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1XoLZtuAoNccGPKW0XLe | Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-risk has been developed by December 31st, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-27T05:07:08 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:07:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iX9aF89EpVhuoCxMbrAy | Will @ScottAlexander be active on Manifold in six months? | @ScottAlexander has been using Manifold a little bit more since LK-99 and Manifest. Will it continue?
Resolves YES if as of the end of March 2024, @ScottAlexander is active on manifold on least two days of each of the previous three months, that is, at least two days in each of Jan, Feb, and March 2024.
"active" mean... | 2023-09-27T04:57:05 | 2024-03-01T02:21:54 | 2024-03-01T02:21:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CfGusE3nAhY0qTCxu4aM | Will UK Labour charge 20% VAT on private school fees within 1 year of winning election? [Potential early resolution] | Context: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/labour-vat-b2418375.html
[link preview]This market resolves YES if a Labour government removes private schools' VAT exempt status within 1 year of winning power. Passing legislation counts.
This market resolves NO in the following circumstances:
Labour lose the next ele... | 2023-09-27T02:12:12 | 2025-02-17T06:31:49 | 2025-02-17T06:31:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GPQrtguru1sg9kGPg3i4 | China housing/real estate crisis by Sep 2024? (1000M subsidy) | Related to the news around Evergrande: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/evergrande-shares-set-open-down-38-amid-uncertainty-over-debt-revamp-plan-2023-09-27
Many, many analysts have predicted the impending doom of China wrt to building ghost cities, unsustainable infrastructure spending, municipal governments taki... | 2023-09-27T00:58:14 | 2024-09-22T03:12:52 | 2024-09-22T03:12:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oF6ehtRosZ6jeekPp3jB | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr run as an independent in the 2024 election? | https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr
The Democrat primary is essentially rigged because of super delegates and biased rules.
Resolves YES if he runs as an independent candidate. | 2023-09-26T20:36:19 | 2023-10-09T20:30:07 | 2023-10-09T20:30:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b3qeXpQMrv2AnrUizufN | Will OpenAI release ChatGPT 5 before June 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-26T16:05:40 | 2024-05-31T23:53:57 | 2024-05-31T23:53:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qxX5orVoQb8OxoVbryBD | Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) leave office before December? | Resolves YES if Robert Menendez leaves his office as a US Senator for any reason before December (Eastern time). Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resignation-democratic-party-senate/index.html
[link preview] | 2023-09-26T13:54:04 | 2023-12-01T04:42:33 | 2023-12-01T04:42:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yT5LgYJD0P2hoNSGU9RY | Will Destiny talk to President Biden on stream before October 2023 | Resolves YES if President Biden appears on stream and says anything to Destiny.
Resolves NO if President Biden does not appear on stream (or appears but does not address Destiny at all).
Resolves N/A if either party dies before the resolution period. | 2023-09-26T12:06:17 | 2023-10-01T11:36:06 | 2023-10-01T11:36:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1h5BEpVIP4RJeDPqixcY | Will Tesla close below $200 before the end of this year? | Will Tesla stock close below $200 before the end of 2023? Currently the stock has several upgrades, but volatility in the stock market could challenge its growth. What will you decide? | 2023-09-26T11:02:42 | 2023-10-30T13:01:24 | 2023-10-30T13:01:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Eqs1K2e7rIrGqjGkTlvc | Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record before November 2023? | Time to beat: 16:38:377
Related September question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Dennis5a87/will-forsen-beat-xqcs-minecraft-rec-2c4f939990c2) | 2023-09-26T10:34:57 | 2023-10-20T10:08:11 | 2023-10-20T10:08:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s7YrP0bk75cedtWbou4b | Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) leave office by October 31? | Resolves YES if Robert Menendez leaves his office as a US Senator for any reason before end of day October 31 (Eastern time). Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resignation-democratic-party-senate/index.html
[link preview] | 2023-09-26T10:00:18 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-11-02T18:52:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P0Zv4YrCSWvN943vakIS | Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) resign during this term? | Resolves to YES if Robert Menendez resigns from the US Senate during his current term, ending January 2025. Otherwise NO. If he is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resigna... | 2023-09-26T09:43:05 | 2024-07-23T19:25:25 | 2024-07-23T19:25:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BRwgsztEvQ1TVs81UVrC | DESTINY TO WATCH SECOND REPUBLICAN DEBATE ON STREAM? | resolves yes if destiny watches at least 2/3 of the second republican debate on stream, no matter if on youtube, kick or both, resolves October 3rd | 2023-09-26T09:16:25 | 2023-10-03T14:59:00 | 2023-10-03T16:44:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-46NZu7Xls4NQexB0h7Jo | Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI by the end of 2024? | This resolves YES if Joe Biden signs an AI EO any time before Jan 1, 2025.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order) | 2023-09-26T08:49:25 | 2023-10-30T12:08:05 | 2023-10-30T12:08:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vUkywj0JVuWXHfTr6wcS | US government shutdown longer than 7 days? | Resolves the same as https://kalshi.com/markets/govshutlength/government-shutdown-length#govshutlength-23dec31
If (in 2023) the government is shut down for more than 7 days, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
Days will be counted by checking the source agency a... | 2023-09-26T06:32:32 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:02:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5j8DyFX8hYfo5VFkRDPB | US government shutdown on October 2? | Resolves the same as https://kalshi.com/markets/govshut/government-shutdown#govshut-23oct02
If the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government is shut down on October 02, 2023 at 10:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified... | 2023-09-26T06:29:48 | 2023-10-02T20:59:00 | 2023-10-02T21:17:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jLmgrlNgQTgShwnlvg7c | Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift be seen kissing? (by October 31) | Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-travis-kelce-and-taylor-swift-be-seen-kissing
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a picture or video showing Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift kissing is made public by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The picture or video must b... | 2023-09-26T06:28:41 | 2023-10-24T05:41:37 | 2023-10-24T05:41:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hNqvClQZWT2VeKjnR2Wr | Will there be a new mass mobilization in Russia by mid-March 2024? | The Russian army seems to have a manpower problem (again). The mobilization law is still in force, reports suggest that there are not enough volunteers, but, after the unpopularity of last September's mass mobilization, the authorities are hesitant to conduct another wave - especially before the presidential elections ... | 2023-09-26T00:09:34 | 2024-03-31T14:59:00 | 2024-04-01T03:57:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FeW5uVAeqpoZq6jrE1Nn | Will the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate be interrupted? | Sporting events and awards are often interrupted by protestors and streakers. Will the same happen at the September 27, 2023 GOP Presidential debate?
This market resolves to YES if a person causes an interruption that:
The person was not authorized by the debate organizers to do,
Is not an extension of something th... | 2023-09-25T16:08:40 | 2023-09-27T20:59:00 | 2023-09-28T04:29:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CEGiLhmEAKScCxsr3wIk | Will Destiny talk to Joe Biden by September 25th? | Resolves yes if Destiny talks to Joe Biden by September 25th 2024. | 2023-09-25T14:22:22 | 2024-09-25T09:46:00 | 2024-09-25T10:56:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pD6Nd7l9u4E0ZufMwApL | Will Joseph Bankman be in custody any time through 2024? | Jail, Prison, House Arrest, or other type of custody. Minimum time: 1 hour. | 2023-09-25T14:14:53 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T00:10:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OCO1GXzw6dx1Bzspdxgg | Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 10 days from Oct 2 - Oct 13? | We only care about the integer part cutting off any fraction without rounding.. We are only referring to the closing price.
This is for a timespan of 10 days. If there is a holiday or other day without a unique closing price in the interval due to the market not having been open, we will extend the deadline to get a... | 2023-09-25T13:57:11 | 2023-10-13T23:59:00 | 2023-10-14T10:27:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-armOGrYvpC3sCnpst5eD | Will Elon’s new startup xAI launch a publically accessible AI model (not waitlist) before the end of 2023? | PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION
Users should be able to download the app or access the web-app from a browser. The app has to be available in atleast two different countries and there should not be any other requirements to access the app other than geographical.
Edit: A product available only to X premium users would re... | 2023-09-25T10:09:35 | 2023-12-18T14:59:00 | 2023-12-18T15:26:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JrCXQKElbX9oXbrs4AjV | Will Bitcoin trade >= 30000$ on the 1st of Jan at 00:00 2024 CEST? | I know that the price sometimes differs on exchanges.
For the sake of this market we will only consider the price shown on Binance and Coinbase Pro weighting both with 0.5.
So the resolution critera is
price-on-binance * 0.5 + price-on-coinbase * 0.5 = price
| 2023-09-25T09:28:32 | 2024-01-01T11:20:37 | 2024-01-01T11:20:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-01CthIwwunfdKY5GZuYn | Will the Seattle Seahawks swoop the New York Giants? | YES if Seahawks win. NO if Giants win or tie. | 2023-09-25T09:09:16 | 2023-10-02T20:42:55 | 2023-10-02T20:42:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fc70ZEvgWinDmX4NJRrp | Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Cleveland Browns? | YES if Ravens win. NO if Browns win or tie. | 2023-09-25T09:06:40 | 2023-10-01T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T21:15:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wKKrq3pto2WpY7SRnJZ7 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the New York Jets? | YES if Chiefs win. NO if Jets win or tie. | 2023-09-25T09:02:20 | 2023-10-01T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T21:15:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-X7ZrnLHW5iIDD1knqup3 | Will the Detroit Lions prey on the Green Bay Packers? | YES if Lions win. NO if Packers win or tie. | 2023-09-25T09:00:32 | 2023-09-28T20:19:36 | 2023-09-28T20:19:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LZxKExKkjuOkady2qeNh | Will Jimmy Carter survive the Fall? | Astronomical Fall 2023 Sept 23 to Dec 21 | 2023-09-25T08:15:56 | 2023-12-21T05:57:08 | 2023-12-21T05:57:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zpMbFCONp92ZqzQfyxWz | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 26th September than it closed on 25th September? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 26th September than it did on Monday 25th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute pri... | 2023-09-25T07:35:33 | 2023-09-26T08:30:00 | 2023-09-26T09:10:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GwWqUCT0Fh0B5iMqQTna | Will Sen. Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party by Nov. 30? | Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/509 | 2023-09-25T07:20:02 | 2023-11-30T14:30:00 | 2023-12-01T16:27:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TZERFDK93Vr8jafyDSAq | Have OpenAI achieved AGI internally? | Context: https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1706078819617063304?s=20
[tweet]Resolves YES if it's revealed that OpenAI had achieved AGI internally before the creation of this market.
I'll use OpenAI's AGI definition: "By AGI, we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.". | 2023-09-25T04:13:33 | 2024-07-31T07:29:00 | 2024-07-31T15:11:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KpuXnp7XwsxNwOtQQP9b | [Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Philippe bring Tropical Storm force winds to Bermuda? | Background
Here is yet another episode of Bermuda tropical cyclone markets (previous ones here and here). According to different model forecasts, the path of Tropical Storm Philippe carries strong uncertainty beyond the next 2-3 days.
Per NHC:
"Philippe should continue west-northwestward over the next day or two, s... | 2023-09-25T03:11:53 | 2023-10-06T17:00:00 | 2023-10-06T21:49:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C67BlQP5Jj2ljKalnRZW | Will Tesla begin using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles before January 1, 2025? | On April 7, 2022, a display for the product was featured at the Tesla Giga Texas manufacturing facility during the Cyber Rodeo event. Musk said that he hopes to have the robot production-ready by 2023 and claimed Optimus will eventually be able to do "anything that humans don’t want to do."
In June 2022, Musk announce... | 2023-09-25T00:43:21 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T14:05:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rwrPXT15ct1tPtG1JvL8 | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on September 25 than it closed on September 24? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $26,250.20
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/Sept... | 2023-09-24T19:52:42 | 2023-09-25T19:08:09 | 2023-09-25T19:09:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YVNQZ0QUWPppOwwoMfxN | Will there be a new marathon world record at the Chicago Marathon in 2023? | Resolves YES if there is a new marathon world record in EITHER the men's or women's race at the 2023 Chicago Marathon. | 2023-09-24T17:50:17 | 2023-10-08T09:03:32 | 2023-10-08T09:03:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y39j7rkAz4bEq4Itolz4 | Will "The Marvels" exceed $500M at the box office? | Answer will be determined by the box office mojo worldwide grosses. Closes 3 months following its release. | 2023-09-24T17:42:26 | 2024-03-10T18:47:00 | 2024-03-10T19:50:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uz0rULLTTJcZxpubKPFr | Will xAI overtake OpenAI as the leader in AI research by the end of 2024? | This question is a copy of this market except resolving at the beginning of 2025.
[link preview]Resolution will depend on benchmark performances and the creator's judgement, which will take into account motor skills, computational efficiency, and subjective general intelligence. Expert opinion may also be considered i... | 2023-09-24T16:48:20 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-21T21:40:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LVaiXcYMig5dD1Dg2Nm9 | NFL Week 4 : Scorigami ; Will Any Games Score Fill In A Blank On The Chart For Winning Score/Losing Score? | Official Scorigami Tracker
To Resolve YES:
A White Box Must Get Filled To Achieve A "Scorigami" In Week 2 Games Played September 28th-October 2nd 2023.
To Resolve NO:
An Already Shaded Box Is Filled Resulting In No "Scorigami"
What is Scorigami?
Scorigami is a concept thought up by Jon Bois. It is the art of buil... | 2023-09-24T13:26:29 | 2023-10-02T20:59:00 | 2023-10-02T23:11:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ge9vY2gpDQ9AhC3yd1DB | Will Kalshi be able to legally offer US election markets by 2030? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-24T12:54:50 | 2024-10-03T16:20:27 | 2024-10-03T16:20:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bdFzfQnn9XZ296Xoi9Sa | Will Google Gemini perform better (text) than GPT-4? | "perform better" refers to the text performance only, to keep it simple. To be comparable the performance should be equal or extremely close across a wide range of benchmarks (e.g. MMLU, HumanEval, WinoGrande) and chat/agent tests (e.g. MT-Bench). It should also have at least 8k context length (chosen since GPT-4 has 8... | 2023-09-24T12:03:42 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-02T13:04:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4CsmrAtuOGoZ6lcD7Xb7 | Will President Biden still be a candidate for president on Jan. 31? | Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/510 | 2023-09-24T11:49:18 | 2024-01-31T14:30:00 | 2024-01-31T23:20:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4U1caJMpVTLVqrVj5BQh | Will Donald Trump announce his running mate for the 2024 election by Oct. 31? | Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/537 | 2023-09-24T10:35:23 | 2023-10-31T14:30:00 | 2023-11-08T06:33:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YhYJ9Lc2lBBhoST1PKTU | Will Tim Scott still be a Republican candidate for president on Oct. 31? | Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/522 | 2023-09-24T10:30:36 | 2023-10-31T14:30:00 | 2023-10-31T19:31:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c4N9W25u2fW10LItMPAJ | Will Asa Hutchinson still be a Republican candidate for president on Oct. 31? | Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/521 | 2023-09-24T10:30:30 | 2023-10-31T14:30:00 | 2023-11-04T00:09:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KqBd702u291oE19puDb5 | Will AI be capable of completing The Legend of Zelda (NES) with no prior knowledge by Sept. 21, 2024? | A few days ago, Twitter user Liron Shapira posted the following challenge:
[tweet]To which I replied:
[tweet]Will I be correct in predicting that AI will not have this capability within 12 months? This market resolves YES if a bot of any kind is shown to have completed The Legend of Zelda for the NES within 12 months... | 2023-09-24T10:28:28 | 2024-09-21T20:59:00 | 2024-10-09T19:16:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MriIsablduJ8eVh4p0lB | Will Nikki Haley still be a Republican candidate for president on Oct. 31? | Resolves by the same question posed by Fox News' America Predicts here: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/520 | 2023-09-24T10:25:34 | 2023-10-31T14:30:00 | 2023-10-31T19:31:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QfOS1T7nk1uWs7hEUbAT | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will the drivers finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd all be from different teams at the Qatar Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if each position on the podium is occupied by a driver from a different team, e.g. 1st - MV (Red Bull), 2nd - LN (McLaren), 3rd - LH (Mercedes).
The market is not inclusive of post-race penalties, so will resolve YES still even if a penalty investigation is started after the race finish, and then applied... | 2023-09-24T08:20:37 | 2023-10-08T12:17:26 | 2023-10-08T12:17:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IqmgxJhf7pskfC9IlKqS | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will there be 2 or more safety cars (including VSCs) in the race at the Qatar Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if there are 2 safety cars (either actual safety car or virtual safety car) or more during the race on Sunday at the Qatar Grand Prix. | 2023-09-24T08:14:58 | 2023-10-08T12:17:39 | 2023-10-08T12:17:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GwAoGMzrPNc5uUrkVP5Q | Will Elon Musk sell twitter by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-24T05:22:02 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T22:00:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jzzqwbukh4dMamJa2wQr | Will China declined the invitation to the AI Safety Summit host in UK? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-24T02:34:02 | 2023-11-01T13:04:41 | 2023-11-01T13:04:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BHnlosTc4JSj2DJUFxIh | Will George Russell finish on the podium at the Qatar GP 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-23T23:45:15 | 2023-10-08T11:32:54 | 2023-10-08T11:33:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8m4L1L8K841m1DFvwfn5 | Which Of These 2 Racers Will Finish 2nd In The 2023 F1 Drivers Standings? Lewis Hamilton Or Sergio Perez. | The question should be clear enough for nearly no description. (I may edit if needed based on comments for any clarifying aspects)
Official 2023 Drivers Standings
This will NOT resolve until the end of the final race of the 2023 season for any reason.
YES: Lewis Hamilton 2nd
NO: Sergio Perez 2nd
N/A: Other Driver
... | 2023-09-23T23:44:50 | 2023-11-19T04:22:57 | 2023-11-19T04:22:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xhCVZNHJOFChQKjLSFDd | Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar GP 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-23T23:40:56 | 2023-10-08T11:31:58 | 2023-10-08T11:32:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jsquvTeXebTh86zWW38P | Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2024? | I'll use similar criteria as the embedded question, but please note I won't consider cost.
Lab-grown meat will qualify as accessible if it meats any of these
available in more than 5 stores of a major grocery chain (Walmart, Kroger, Safeway, etc.) or
available at more than ten specialty stores or
can be purchased ... | 2023-09-23T21:54:45 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-10T14:19:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wMss636N57tnCrh8ooVJ | Will the writers strike be resolved with a deal between WGA and AMPTP by October 15th | https://deadline.com/2023/09/writers-strike-deal-close-1235554418/
[link preview] | 2023-09-23T20:00:06 | 2023-09-27T21:39:22 | 2023-09-27T21:39:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KLIKrTdmXGzTvAk0rYj2 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Destiny have another in-depth discussion before the end of 2024? | They had their first at Manifest, and didn't have enough time to get through everything it seemed they wanted to talk about.
In order to count for this market, it must be streamed or recorded somewhere, and last at least half an hour. | 2023-09-23T18:06:36 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:20:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ECLOinFenKVcCIZlXMRo | Will U.S. Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) still be in office by the end of 2023? | One of America's most resilient politicians is facing a tough new scandal.
https://dnyuz.com/2023/09/23/does-robert-menendez-have-enough-teflon-to-survive-again/
[link preview]UPDATE (01/01/2024 at 12:20 am Eastern): Senator Menendez remains in office. Resolving this as 'YES.' Thank you for participating in this m... | 2023-09-23T17:38:40 | 2023-12-31T21:24:03 | 2023-12-31T21:24:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m67I2ESkTndett2wnEXA | Will "The One Ring" be banned in Commander by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-23T16:18:52 | 2024-12-31T16:16:00 | 2025-01-04T08:30:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IoRpVjoyKMTIDGRU1IN5 | By October 15th will Vaush have pledged to join/support destiny's canvassing efforts? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Kw8bTwUTwg?t=1375)Context: Destiny talked about trying to convince Vaush or the Majority Report to join his canvassing efforts for the upcoming election.
If Vaush makes a serious offer to help Destiny's canvassing in a meaningful, concrete way, then this market will resolve Yes.
For th... | 2023-09-23T14:29:06 | 2023-10-15T14:59:00 | 2023-10-15T23:53:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0AYdJAt7329mk46tZT0o | By October 15th will The Majority Report have pledged to join/support destiny's canvassing efforts? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Kw8bTwUTwg?t=1375)Context: Destiny talked about trying to convince Vaush or the Majority Report to join his canvassing efforts for the upcoming election.
If The Majority Report makes a serious offer to help Destiny's canvassing in a meaningful, concrete way, then this market will resolv... | 2023-09-23T13:25:29 | 2023-10-15T14:59:00 | 2023-10-15T23:53:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RwR0roHNOnstmUA0E34b | [Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Philippe strengthen into a hurricane? | Background
Another Cabo Verde cyclone, Tropical Storm Philippe (formerly 90L and Tropical Depression Seventeen), has developed a well-defined center and deep convection and is now classified as a Tropical Storm. Does it have what it takes to reach hurricane strength?
[image]Most forecast models had predicted Tropical... | 2023-09-23T09:30:35 | 2023-10-06T09:30:00 | 2023-10-06T09:54:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f1jm3j7BBkAAPvjp01p9 | Will the US start using frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s military? | Larry Summers had a great idea. By end of 2024. | 2023-09-23T08:04:44 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T17:11:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0LuoCaEUsmAcsWYga21s | Will there be a Nicki Minaj collab on 1989 (Taylor’s Version)? | Resolves when the album comes out. (The track list has already been released, with no mention of Nicki Minaj.)
Market created because of (mild) controversy on
(https://manifold.markets/embed/XavierW/will-nicki-minaj-be-announced-as-fe)General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolutio... | 2023-09-23T07:38:02 | 2023-10-26T21:22:42 | 2023-10-26T21:22:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kd2NgWQpHVcSBpQqTLjj | Will Vivek Ramaswamy get to make a final stand? | Presidential nominations often narrow down as candidates drop out of the race. After Super Tuesday, a point arrives where there are usually only two viable candidates remaining, and the candidates who have dropped out usually endorse one of the remaining two.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy outlast everyone else and be one of t... | 2023-09-23T07:00:07 | 2024-01-16T06:10:35 | 2024-01-16T06:10:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qCN5CCHxOSJwDgpuwAsL | [AFL] Will Collingwood defeat Brisbane in the Grand Final at the MCG on September 30th? | Resolves on the winner of the match as officially declared by the AFL.
YES if Collingwood wins, NO if Brisbane wins.
This market resolves on the final result of the match, including any points scored during extra time, or any other officially recognised tie-breaking mechanism.
Provisions for extra time in finals mat... | 2023-09-23T03:30:09 | 2023-09-30T00:23:48 | 2023-09-30T00:23:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mHnWC3V5mY1Ej0derLfp | Will trump tweet again before the end of 2023? | Trump's last tweet was in August. Will he post again before the end of the year? | 2023-09-23T01:59:47 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:34:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rlvbl6crSlJhEwICFrEN | Will OpenAI allow users to create bots with custom instruction messages through the ChatGPT app (before 2024)? | Background Information
Peo.com allows users to create custom AI bots with their unique custom instruction. For example, users can create a bot for assisting with language learning or writing midjourney prompts. I am wondering if OpenAI will add a similar functionality to ChatGPT.
Resolution Criteria
The question r... | 2023-09-23T01:56:35 | 2023-11-08T02:27:22 | 2023-11-08T02:27:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6FFGJDaSDYHbh2UZxDAn | Will any AI model generate image of correct QWERTY keyboard consistently, to a prompt, by the end of 2024? | Must be to a prompt, not an iterative process or a conversation.
Must be consistent, as in, reusing the prompt also works at least 10% (bare minimum) of the time. I will not even consider anything less consistent.
As long as it can generate the English Alphabet keys in the correct order, I will consider it. If the... | 2023-09-23T00:56:45 | 2024-01-03T11:10:50 | 2024-01-03T11:10:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WEO92FfvtDMMzmaX1Kp1 | Will Bob Menendez be expelled from the Senate? | Resolves YES if Sen. Menendez of NJ is expelled from the Senate at any point of the 118th United States Congress. Resolves according to major media coverage. | 2023-09-22T16:02:26 | 2024-08-20T14:18:38 | 2024-08-20T14:18:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tcg2EvHYWsNp4rXlQOcS | Will there be a GPT-4 Instruct model released in 2023? | Context:
[image]Resolves YES if OpenAI releases a GPT-4-based InstructGPT in 2023. NO otherwise.
This should be a model that follows instructions and doesn't try to "chat" with you. Relevant evidences could be explicit claims that it is InstructGPT-based, the model name("gpt-4-instruct"), or the style of output clear... | 2023-09-22T16:01:04 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:11:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oDkXQHycbxQVbFbhcmEa | Will Ophelia become a hurricane? | Resolves YES if the NHC designates TS Ophelia as a Hurricane at any point in the next 7 days. | 2023-09-22T14:51:11 | 2023-09-29T14:59:00 | 2023-09-29T15:16:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iY7EHlDv9pkbzbHbyM1v | Will Donald Trump lose at least one state by the end of Super Tuesday in the 2024 Republican primary? | This question resolves to YES if another candidate receives a larger share of the statewide popular vote in any contest through March 5, 2024.
——————
Bettors are encouraged to vote on my other market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CanOfBeans/will-donald-trump-win-a-majority-of) | 2023-09-22T13:24:21 | 2024-03-05T19:48:39 | 2024-03-05T19:48:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HE30fM6Vfs6HPgOtRMOv | Will GPT-3.5 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (2023) | Resolves YES if someone finds a fixed prompt as defined in the main market that succeeds at solving any Sudoku puzzle listed at Sudoku - Free daily Sudoku games from the Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) that was generated after the comment was posted.
You are allowed to experiment with ChatGPT, but judging will be done... | 2023-09-22T12:27:46 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:58:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Hxgimo0LWlk37voZoUI | Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before October 2024? | In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel. It must:
Be at least 60,000 words.
Be interesting, not some attempt to game the system like "Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said "1", then "2", then "3", then "4"..." It must seem like something a human might write if they... | 2023-09-22T12:25:12 | 2024-10-01T23:59:00 | 2024-11-10T17:39:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NwggSdq7LRLdragr5Pxa | Will any robot be able to ride a normal full-size bicycle like a human can by the end of 2024? | Already been done on a tiny bike.
It must do it entirely by balance on the bicycle seat, the same way a human would. It can't have propellors, reaction wheels, parts in contact with the ground, or other such cheating. It does not need to be humanoid.
It must be able to ride any normal human bicycle; the bike can't be... | 2023-09-22T11:56:33 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T12:21:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AAfeYptnvrrw7WqZrqIE | Will an AI-powered dating app significantly improve on the current state of the art by October 2024? | It must be noticibly better than current mass market dating apps. Maybe the AI asks personalized questions to each participant in order to find people to pair them up with, maybe it asks for a video of them, maybe it asks for access to their dating and/or porn history, or any other approach. It just needs to clearly be... | 2023-09-22T11:49:25 | 2024-10-01T23:59:00 | 2024-12-29T18:44:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PQlIoZDMX6qEFlVATluT | Will Bob Menendez be re-elected to the Senate in New Jersey? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-22T10:24:12 | 2024-08-20T21:00:25 | 2024-08-20T21:00:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bD8yVb8rS1VOdioNrHiJ | Will Canada sanction India by December 21? | Background
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/22/canada-plunges-deeper-into-diplomatic-crisis-with-india_6138515_4.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially imposes any form of sanctions against India between September 21, 3 PM ET and December 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, thi... | 2023-09-22T09:39:39 | 2023-12-21T06:38:55 | 2023-12-21T06:38:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nGBdpFH2ab3ocECDwAaB | Will Canada sanction India by November 21? | Background
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/22/canada-plunges-deeper-into-diplomatic-crisis-with-india_6138515_4.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially imposes any form of sanctions against India between September 21, 3 PM ET and November 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, thi... | 2023-09-22T09:39:21 | 2023-11-22T20:59:00 | 2023-11-24T08:06:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tBEHbFIoZn3fyQtrOnIm | Will Canada sanction India by October 31? | Background
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/22/canada-plunges-deeper-into-diplomatic-crisis-with-india_6138515_4.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially imposes any form of sanctions against India between September 21, 3 PM ET and October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this... | 2023-09-22T09:38:52 | 2023-11-01T19:53:30 | 2023-11-01T19:53:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xBKWlWZiawauc6S3crqx | Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2024? | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876
[link preview] | 2023-09-22T08:45:33 | 2023-10-17T07:08:19 | 2023-10-17T07:08:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0zuLCoEUDz87LId0mwLf | Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2023? | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876
[link preview] | 2023-09-22T08:44:59 | 2023-10-17T06:38:56 | 2023-10-17T06:38:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uV4zrrIXfR3yDRl0zTuK | Will Bob Menendez announce his resignation from the Senate by 12/31/2023? | The resignation need not be effective by 12/31 to resolve to yes, only an announcement of a future resignation (i.e. "I announce that my last day in the Senate will be Jan 1st 2024" would resolve as YES if resignation statement is made in 2023). | 2023-09-22T07:27:45 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:48:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9iHmf6I0jZobXhORkRKf | Will North Korea launch an ICBM by the end of October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-21T21:59:42 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-10-31T22:09:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
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