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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-MsYgNU8b1poq5LZRmMzd
|
Will someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump be inaugurated on January 20, 2025?
|
This question will resolve yes if someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump is inaugurated at the next US Presidential inauguration anticipated on Jan 20, 2025.
If the inauguration date is adjusted this question will resolve based on whenever the next inauguration is. The actual date is not material.
|
2023-09-21T17:41:11
|
2025-01-20T11:48:28
|
2025-01-20T11:48:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZWmIF5BceBw6e9EN0q3B
|
Will Grimes join Manifold in 2023?
|
What will it take to make you capitulate?
|
2023-09-21T16:57:48
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:58:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-553UUjLmO36y7NZkyd8Y
|
Will anyone have had sex with Aella due to a market on Manifold by the end of January 2024?
|
https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1704947908976767432
This only resolves YES if it's known conclusivly that this occurred. A very indirect reason like "I saw this person on Manifold and we got to talking elsewhere" doesn't count, but "I did it to manipulate a market" does. In other words, the counterfactual "if a specific market had not been created, the sex would very likely not have occurred" must be true. (I reserve the right to modify this description slightly if I realize a problem with it.)
|
2023-09-21T14:08:46
|
2024-02-01T23:59:00
|
2024-02-04T18:00:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GJEcrsb3szpm2XCiRdbI
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on September 22 than it closed on September 21?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of September (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2000
2 1250
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-21T13:26:10
|
2023-09-22T11:00:00
|
2023-09-22T15:42:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2NyP4Ykyi7TasyR180Ao
|
Will Erling Haaland outscore another Premier league team in the 2023-24 season?
|
If haaland ends the season with more goals than another premier team scored, this resolves to YES. If its equal or less then it resolves NO.
Only PL-goals are counted.
|
2023-09-21T13:12:26
|
2024-05-30T08:01:47
|
2024-05-30T08:01:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fV4CB7JVm5M7fmrC6Cy6
|
Will DALL-E 3 correctly respond to prompt 1 from the Scott Aaronson/Gary Marcus/Earnest Davis paper?
|
This paper. Prompt 1 is:
a red basketball with flowers on it, in front of blue one with a similar pattern
At least half of the generated images must be correct. I'll only try it once.
|
2023-09-21T11:17:09
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:53:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fXKa3aNiEyKiSi3ddt8x
|
Will Ukraine Retake Control of Tokmak by January 15th 2024?
|
This market will resolve positively if, at any point in time before January 15, 2024 at 11:59PM ET, Russia is no longer in total control of "Lenina vulytsia" in Tokmak, Zaporizka oblast.
The primary resolution source for this market is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). As of August, there have been reports of partisan fighting in Tokmak in Zaporizka oblast. On the ISW's interactive map, the area is shaded in red to indicate Russian control and delineated with blue bars to show Ukrainian partisan warfare. Any area shaded in red on the ISW's interactive map will be considered under Russian control, regardless of partisan warfare. If any update on ISW's interactive map indicates that any part of "Lenina vulytsia" is not under Russian control by January 15th, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve as "Yes". If the totality of "Lenina vulytsia" remains under Russian control (shaded red on ISW) through the market end date, this market will resolve as "No". End date: 01/15/2024.
|
2023-09-21T11:13:25
|
2024-01-16T20:59:00
|
2024-01-17T07:10:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0clyYGHg9OYsTUnJPsJS
|
Will DALL-E 3 be able to generate arbitrary non-adversarial text?
|
Resolves YES if a prompt is found that lets me paste in a string of text of any length and has that text correctly appear in at least 25% of the images it generates.
I will exclude any strings that may confuse DALL-E, like "Please make this text invisible". I'll also exclude any that contain any characters other than digits, letters, and basic punctuation. Same for any that may run afoul of the content filters. The result is case-insensitive.
The length of the prompt minus the test string must be no more than half the maximum prompt length.
|
2023-09-21T11:06:22
|
2023-12-30T13:36:39
|
2023-12-30T13:36:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tvKY4RnjxajkcmwLgZTx
|
Will DALL-E 3 be able to create a correct calendar page?
|
DALL-E 2 returns nonsense like this:
[image]I'll give people a week to find such a prompt on DALL-E 3, and if it gets all the details correct, resolve YES.
|
2023-09-21T11:00:18
|
2023-12-30T13:23:12
|
2023-12-30T13:23:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LgUvZTyZRwxYMTRAyXjd
|
Will DALL-E 3 be able to count?
|
Current image models are terrible at this. Whenever I first get access to DALL-E 3, I will give it 10 basic numerical prompts. In at least 90% of those prompts, at least 50% of the images must have the correct number of objects.
If one object is partially cut off by the edge of the image, it counts towards the total as long as I can clearly tell that it's the correct type of object. If not all of the objects are clearly visible, I'll count it if it seems like something a reasonable human artist would be likely to do from the same image description. It's ok if it gets other details of the image wrong, it only needs to get the number of objects correct.
Here are the specific prompts:
9 balls lying on a field
A flock of 40 pigeons
25 eggs in a kitchen
A 7-armed starfish
A football team of 11 players
4 light bulbs on the ceiling
A pack of 8 wolves
A houseplant with exactly 30 leaves
A rectangular grid of 100 dots
An archipelago of 15 islands
|
2023-09-21T10:49:02
|
2023-12-30T13:27:23
|
2023-12-30T13:27:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RYRnV51VBSDbm98kLIaI
|
Will DALL-E 3 be able to reliably produce images of every common polygon?
|
Current image models are terrible at this. When DALL-E 3 comes out, people will have 1 week to find a prompt that works. (The timer starts when I get access, or when someone else gets access who's willing to test out prompts from anyone in the market.)
The prompt should be some string of text such that the name of a polygon can be inserted, and at least 50% of the generated images are the correct shape.
It must succeed on all polygons from the triangle to the octagon. It's ok if it fails on more esoteric ones.
|
2023-09-21T10:00:57
|
2023-12-29T22:28:50
|
2023-12-29T22:28:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wkjulUKKeF3tGM6Usvag
|
Will Destiny play Lies of P before November?
|
Will Destiny the streamer play at least 1 hour of the Lies of P game on stream before November 1st?
|
2023-09-21T09:50:52
|
2023-11-01T21:59:00
|
2023-11-05T08:30:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jERQCcSAGB04qVhx1uJn
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 22nd September than it closed on 21st September?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 22nd September than it did on Thursday 21st September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-09-21T09:25:01
|
2023-09-22T08:30:00
|
2023-09-22T08:54:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HIcxYYIfYXFIBOzsPtfA
|
Compelling evidence tying the Indian State to the death of Mr. Nijjar made public before 2024
|
"Compelling evidence" is anything that directly and clearly ties the Indian state to the killing beyond most reasonable doubt. It doesn't have to be quite as conclusive as, say, the evidence revealed in the Khashoggi killing, but it needs to be relatively extensive. In case of a public disclosure of unclear quality, I'll default to my best judgement, though I'm open to alternative mechanisms.
The evidence does not need to be made public via any official channels. An unofficial disclosure or leak of evidence suffices. It doesn't matter whether the Indian state denies or disputes it, unless they can undermine its quality.
|
2023-09-21T08:22:00
|
2024-01-01T19:02:11
|
2024-01-01T19:02:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5N2EWs8JXy8WfVH5s2GW
|
Will it snow in Atlanta before 2024
|
Will there be measurable snowfall in Atlanta, GA before Jan 1 2024?
To confirm I will use NOWData on https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=ffc and select the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson airport(listed as Atlanta Hartsfie, GA) for the location. Here's the results from 2000-2023
[image]The blanks mean there was no measurable snow that year. You can see other previous first snow dates by selecting "First/Last dates" as the product, "Snowfall" for the criteria, and adjusting the year range.
|
2023-09-21T07:37:07
|
2024-01-01T08:34:18
|
2024-01-01T08:34:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3rNq3Rnc3hDwc9ZwxxKN
|
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of November?
|
YES Still alive before December 1 (EDT)
|
2023-09-21T06:59:58
|
2023-12-01T04:37:30
|
2023-12-01T04:37:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hXDybB4UiXFV3GsOmmvd
|
If Trump is reelected will he be impeached before taking the oath?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-21T06:28:35
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:05:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iPCKpilNGQOPzBbh9TLz
|
Will Ohio Legalize recreational Marijuana in the Ohio November '23 general elections?
|
Ohio Issue 2, Marijuana Legalization Initiative
https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_2,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2023)
[link preview]
|
2023-09-21T02:47:17
|
2023-11-08T19:43:00
|
2023-11-08T19:43:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M5w3G7EkEJeIZDjOsEXD
|
Will Ohioans pass the abortion amendment on the Nov '23 ballot.
|
https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Right_to_Make_Reproductive_Decisions_Including_Abortion_Initiative_(2023)
[link preview]
|
2023-09-21T02:43:50
|
2023-11-08T19:44:16
|
2023-11-08T19:44:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XO2G8DWGIMGnDo39hMBa
|
Will Azerbaijan attack Armenia by Dec 15th 2023?
|
YES if military troops of Azerbaijan will cross at least for a 1 day official Armenian border on any OSINT map before 16th of December.
P.S. Previously occupied or contested terrirories (~ 50 km2) not counted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29
|
2023-09-21T00:31:55
|
2023-12-14T14:59:00
|
2023-12-14T23:37:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f1XHEVMh0D8ILKftBLSY
|
Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 2nd November meeting?
|
The Bank of England meets on 2nd November to set interest rates.
The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.
The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it.
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-5631d8d2019a
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-76b36fd55025
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac
|
2023-09-20T23:11:27
|
2023-11-02T05:18:20
|
2023-11-02T05:18:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5KwPnN3SvwdyFEul3tqK
|
Will any country's current Head of State or Government die in the next month? (Sept-Oct)
|
Presidents, Prime Ministers, Monarchs, etc.
Must be a country's leader (for governments with both, either head of state or head of government is fine, even if ceremonial) as of this question's creation date on Aug 21 2023 or become such (and die) by question close. Doesn't need to die "in office".
Members of a council that is itself the Head count, but "deputies" "vices" and "assistants" where there is a higher seat do not.
|
2023-09-20T15:32:39
|
2023-10-20T23:59:00
|
2023-10-21T02:02:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xl2sGalfjz5k2LVT7fxp
|
Will the Senate Majority Leader in the U.S. be a Republican on January 25th, 2025?
|
The position of the Senate Majority Leader in the United States is held by a member of the political party that holds the majority of seats in the U.S. Senate. The individual holding this position has a significant influence on legislative priorities and the overall direction of the Senate. As of the last known date, the composition of the U.S. Senate is subject to the outcomes of elections, retirements, appointments, and other political shifts.
Will the Senate Majority Leader of the United States be a member of the Republican Party on January 25th, 2025?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve to "YES" if, on January 25th, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader of the United States is a member of the Republican Party. For clarity:
The Senate Majority Leader must be publicly recognized as holding the position on the specified date, either through official Senate records, announcements, or other credible documentation.
The individual serving as the Senate Majority Leader on that date must be a member of the Republican Party, as verified by party affiliation records, public statements, or other reliable sources.
Temporary or interim Majority Leaders, if appointed, will be considered for this resolution, provided they hold the position on January 25th, 2025.
Any public announcements, news reports, or official statements regarding the position of Senate Majority Leader and their political affiliation released on or before January 25th, 2025, will be taken into account when determining the resolution.
If, for any reason, there is ambiguity or dispute about the party affiliation of the Senate Majority Leader on the specified date, credible sources, including but not limited to official Senate documentation, party announcements, or reputable news outlets, will be consulted to determine the resolution.
I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with political experts or historians, to ensure that the criteria are met and that the Senate Majority Leader's affiliation is accurately determined for the date specified.
|
2023-09-20T15:05:56
|
2025-01-25T23:59:00
|
2025-02-04T17:34:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3DvORldtJ0nxlxvFAU5o
|
Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Raiders win
No - Steelers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-09-20T13:46:34
|
2023-09-24T20:29:10
|
2023-09-24T20:29:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZSKOA0U8bpK1bWYIvaLU
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Chicago Bears in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Chiefs win
No - Bears win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-09-20T13:44:01
|
2023-09-24T16:23:05
|
2023-09-24T16:23:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YatLMVnT4TNtMe2YcuSy
|
Will Fabiano Caruana win the US Chess Championship?
|
Resolves positively if Fabiano Caruana repeats as the 2023 US Chess Champion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Chess_Championship
This tournament will take place between October 5-18, 2023.
https://www.uschesschamps.com/2023-us-championships/overview
This market may close or resolve early if Caruana clinches the title with rounds to spare, if he is mathematically eliminated, or if he withdraws from the tournament.
|
2023-09-20T13:43:53
|
2023-10-17T17:10:56
|
2023-10-17T17:10:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4GggJppXAQEGFlj512VT
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Carolina Panthers in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Seahawks win
No - Panthers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-09-20T13:42:46
|
2023-09-24T16:35:00
|
2023-09-24T16:40:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pllfIM88hgiOYVqHtTJi
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Indianapolis Colts in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Ravens win
No - Colts win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-09-20T13:39:56
|
2023-09-24T13:30:38
|
2023-09-24T13:30:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OPivQ3LASiT4nTMR70po
|
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Houston Texans in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Jaguars win
No - Texans win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-09-20T13:38:40
|
2023-09-24T13:07:59
|
2023-09-24T13:08:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TYZHKAg425ll6Zje382U
|
Will the New York Jets beat the New England Patriots in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Jets win
No - Patriots win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-09-20T13:36:06
|
2023-09-24T13:11:14
|
2023-09-24T13:11:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9QllVOerBJkMJTOJMNqM
|
Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Denver Broncos in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - 49ers win
No - Giants win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-09-20T13:33:33
|
2023-09-24T13:26:08
|
2023-09-24T13:26:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tYJtkKKR1koloF9HhaiQ
|
NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars?
|
The game will take place at Nissan Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:11:52
|
2024-01-07T13:00:47
|
2024-01-07T13:00:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZOrvLmIq4sriA9T2jmOF
|
NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears?
|
The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:11:32
|
2024-01-07T16:18:26
|
2024-01-07T16:18:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gCQ6UlDtlZhRGnrUqrJY
|
NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings?
|
The game will take place at Ford Field at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:11:30
|
2024-01-07T13:14:35
|
2024-01-07T13:14:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oIJNIitcjOoZnN1FYxKY
|
NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?
|
The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:11:24
|
2024-01-06T16:30:16
|
2024-01-06T16:30:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QGDCDFDaY2dt3H4IOkZd
|
NFL Week 17 (Dec 31): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?
|
The game will take place at Lumen Field at 1:05 PST on December 31, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:11:12
|
2023-12-31T16:33:44
|
2023-12-31T16:33:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s4Ht90QG9363tbmC4DFy
|
NFL Week 17 (Dec 31): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Miami Dolphins?
|
The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 31, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:50
|
2023-12-31T13:15:45
|
2023-12-31T13:15:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ATypVxNOjYOGEof6Ekwt
|
NFL Week 17 (Dec 30): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions?
|
The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 30, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:48
|
2023-12-30T20:24:09
|
2023-12-30T20:24:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oSVt42AJzPV6WuqdxZgm
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 25): Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Baltimore Ravens?
|
The game will take place at Levi's® Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 25, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:43
|
2023-12-25T20:39:45
|
2023-12-25T20:39:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ss0gQrc5y8VGHCoeW4zD
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 25): Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Las Vegas Raiders?
|
The game will take place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 25, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:39
|
2023-12-25T13:31:00
|
2023-12-25T13:31:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x1ouubsTbbkFmobjOJ6K
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Denver Broncos beat the New England Patriots?
|
The game will take place at Empower Field at Mile High at 5:15 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:36
|
2023-12-24T20:27:25
|
2023-12-24T20:27:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FIUm5Pe06axqTYlL5Aai
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Dallas Cowboys?
|
The game will take place at Hard Rock Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:34
|
2023-12-24T17:03:56
|
2023-12-24T17:03:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fuUD9w6quV15g2aMexeI
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions?
|
The game will take place at U.S. Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:23
|
2023-12-24T14:12:55
|
2023-12-24T14:12:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-voInQ5N8PNG9wc56dBLs
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Carolina Panthers beat the Green Bay Packers?
|
The game will take place at Bank of America Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:19
|
2023-12-24T14:13:14
|
2023-12-24T14:13:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0Fu8Udk0FKR4W6eyPKEx
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 23): Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Buffalo Bills?
|
The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 5:00 PST on December 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:14
|
2023-12-23T21:43:35
|
2023-12-23T21:43:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6nemeXXBOqwFPoIHDRbc
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 23): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals?
|
The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 1:30 PST on December 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:12
|
2023-12-23T16:37:18
|
2023-12-23T16:37:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iHztQhlB8iNgUU4ETl5q
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 21): Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the New Orleans Saints?
|
The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 21, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:10
|
2023-12-21T20:25:52
|
2023-12-21T20:25:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mZ2iMcermuA7uAMZrcdc
|
NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Baltimore Ravens?
|
The game will take place at EverBank Stadium at 5:20 PST on December 17, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:05
|
2023-12-17T20:29:04
|
2023-12-17T20:29:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6JoKsyaWNVKsNiok4k7v
|
NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Philadelphia Eagles?
|
The game will take place at Lumen Field at 1:25 PST on December 17, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:03
|
2023-12-18T20:19:09
|
2023-12-18T20:19:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NDLZieLrCiycK3beP3OR
|
NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Dallas Cowboys?
|
The game will take place at Highmark Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 17, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:10:00
|
2023-12-17T16:36:27
|
2023-12-17T16:36:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J6QyZyIqBAVvkGW4lR28
|
NFL Week 15 (Dec 16): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Denver Broncos?
|
The game will take place at Ford Field at 5:15 PST on December 14, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:09:39
|
2023-12-16T20:19:15
|
2023-12-16T20:19:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DEfSXu5ZWFnHde4EMpgP
|
NFL Week 15 (Dec 14): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Minnesota Vikings?
|
The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 14, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:09:35
|
2023-12-16T14:39:46
|
2023-12-16T14:39:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sHKO0GwxBC1UmA19QZu7
|
NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions?
|
The game will take place at Soldier Field at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:09:06
|
2023-12-10T13:53:34
|
2023-12-10T13:53:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fsCSKlMIJRZCev00B2qa
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 4): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cincinnati Bengals?
|
The game will take place at EverBank Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 4, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:57
|
2023-12-04T20:53:00
|
2023-12-04T20:53:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hWEozKHfrvKKiwIxv7yd
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs?
|
The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 5:20 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:54
|
2023-12-03T20:44:12
|
2023-12-03T20:44:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cPjnsS7boToNX23hmTNr
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the San Francisco 49ers?
|
The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 1:25 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:52
|
2023-12-03T16:44:30
|
2023-12-03T16:44:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JaDeB2eYXCyohe2UiGRX
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cleveland Browns?
|
The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:50
|
2023-12-03T16:56:56
|
2023-12-03T16:56:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0H400XKW2Qzuywc4DmQV
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Houston Texans beat the Denver Broncos?
|
The game will take place at NRG Stadium at 1:05 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:48
|
2023-12-03T13:16:21
|
2023-12-03T13:16:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qhWYuVJp4BbzbQ65PuVh
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts?
|
The game will take place at Nissan Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:43
|
2023-12-03T14:21:31
|
2023-12-03T14:21:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YdsCxhkhDTPGhMhAPlFD
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Detroit Lions?
|
The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:35
|
2023-12-03T13:15:57
|
2023-12-03T13:15:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YVgdC2rqjHPQAOqPrNy1
|
NFL Week 13 (Nov 30): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Seattle Seahawks?
|
The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 5:15 PST on November 30, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:30
|
2023-11-30T20:48:56
|
2023-11-30T20:48:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vX6ya8KdFf4Xsmmxgsjf
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Baltimore Ravens?
|
The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 5:20 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:25
|
2023-11-26T20:32:29
|
2023-11-26T20:32:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jmbyTWkuaKowjhZCR2E9
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Buffalo Bills?
|
The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 1:25 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:23
|
2023-11-26T17:07:17
|
2023-11-26T17:07:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oz5gOpbYqZAreMyyEg49
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Houston Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars?
|
The game will take place at NRG Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:06
|
2023-11-26T13:25:32
|
2023-11-26T13:25:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6KumKlfPPYLbsruxUT3q
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?
|
The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:08:04
|
2023-11-26T13:27:20
|
2023-11-26T13:27:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FYl4tZV1ZTMzZsfO2QIY
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 23): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers?
|
The game will take place at Lumen Field at 5:20 PST on November 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:07:56
|
2023-11-23T20:21:45
|
2023-11-23T20:21:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DHmtZhl95KnMAs2zkF63
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 23): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders?
|
The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 1:30 PST on November 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:07:54
|
2023-11-23T16:45:43
|
2023-11-23T16:45:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YNpN9rUrvLguPlxdPYLt
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 23): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers?
|
The game will take place at Ford Field at 9:30 PST on November 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:07:52
|
2023-11-23T13:05:48
|
2023-11-23T13:05:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XyMVNCsSqHI98hOouGqg
|
NFL Week 11 (Nov 19): Will the Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?
|
The game will take place at Cleveland Browns Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 19, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:07:25
|
2023-11-19T13:25:16
|
2023-11-19T13:25:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IUfrH9Ri5g1bopNPkeox
|
NFL Week 11 (Nov 16): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals?
|
The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 5:15 PST on November 16, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:07:21
|
2023-11-16T20:41:23
|
2023-11-16T20:41:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KMSwAMg0mCk9PhuIJU4W
|
NFL Week 10 (Nov 12): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Giants?
|
The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 1:25 PST on November 12, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:07:11
|
2023-11-12T16:43:08
|
2023-11-12T16:43:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DPLpeUWchj6dj409UIjm
|
NFL Week 10 (Nov 12): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Green Bay Packers?
|
The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 12, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:07:01
|
2023-11-12T13:13:09
|
2023-11-12T13:13:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-98EpvMzWphBGJktzxumZ
|
NFL Week 10 (Nov 12): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns?
|
The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 12, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:06:51
|
2023-11-12T13:27:36
|
2023-11-12T13:27:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tE4vhUxEm1SLFri1vhSB
|
NFL Week 10 (Nov 9): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Carolina Panthers?
|
The game will take place at Soldier Field at 5:15 PST on November 9, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T13:06:47
|
2023-11-09T20:40:11
|
2023-11-09T20:40:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WddkjZk0zkWVGvXqn7eP
|
Will Destiny appear on jubilee again before 2024?
|
Jubilee video has to be published before the end of the year.
|
2023-09-20T12:23:05
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:21:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gZaRNijQfzwL4JUIZRK4
|
Will DALL-E 3 be able to get DeWeese lab/Gary Marcus' "red conical block on top of..." prompt a majority of the time?
|
Gary Marcus made a post discussing the Imagen and DALLE-2 model's inability to fully grasp language, particularly around relational undestanding of objects in a prompt: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/horse-rides-astronaut
OpenAI just released DALLE-3, https://openai.com/dall-e-3, which they claim "represents a leap forward in our ability to generate images that exactly adhere to the text you provide".
Once publicly available, I will run this prompt from DeWeese lab that is discussed heavily in the post:
A red conical block on top of a grey cubic block on top of a blue cylindrical block, with a green cubic block nearby
I will produce 10 images. If 5 or more of the images match the prompt exactly, following the color, shape, and positions specified in the prompt, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
I will not bet in this market in case there is ambiguity on some of the images.
|
2023-09-20T11:54:51
|
2023-10-11T08:26:58
|
2023-10-11T08:26:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uAZOYq7yVRzvks6hmWAb
|
Will DALLE-3 be able to create "A horse riding a pickle"?
|
I will try this prompt 10 times. Resolves YES if it generates it correctly > 4 times.
In case of ambiguity, I will use my judgement. I will not bet in the market.
|
2023-09-20T11:19:08
|
2023-10-20T19:29:14
|
2023-10-20T19:29:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6TM4wF8k3Kzd6ccTaIEZ
|
Will DALL·E 3 be accessible to the public by November 15?
|
Accessible means accessible at the same level that DALL·E 2 is now.
This market resolves at 11:59 pm November 15th Pacific time.
From the OpenAI website:
[image]Edit (2023-09-22): Some clarifications:
If DALL·E 3 is available on labs.openai.com this will resolve YES even if API access is not available to the public.
|
2023-09-20T11:15:34
|
2023-11-15T23:59:00
|
2023-11-16T06:40:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WV2EAf58rppPbIpdueqQ
|
Will Vaush publicly apologise to Destiny before the 2024 US election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-20T11:15:05
|
2024-11-06T05:29:00
|
2024-11-06T16:00:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CBGynRGi3N4ngez6E9Ga
|
Will it be possible to generate NSFW images through DALLE-3?
|
A single example won't resolve this yes, but a few (>3, <10) examples would, regardless of the complexity of the prompt.
I will resolve this to YES if it is possible to do so upon release. If not, I will wait for 1 month before resolution, during which time, we can try different techniques.
|
2023-09-20T11:01:21
|
2023-10-16T15:56:02
|
2023-10-16T15:56:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T82uDi32nE04MKIJGude
|
Will OpenAI announce availability of tunable GPT-4 on November 6th, 2023 - developers day
|
https://openai.com/blog/announcing-openai-devday
[link preview]
|
2023-09-20T10:54:24
|
2023-11-08T20:59:00
|
2023-11-11T11:48:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fDPknlYV7BKx5jYLYDmH
|
Will DALLE-3 create correct text (for individual words) in images upon release?
|
The following words will be used:
['apple', 'cloud', 'stone', 'river', 'brush', 'flame', 'grass', 'pizza', 'metal', 'sugar'].
The following prompt will be used:
I will run a prompt: "picture of a large overgrown concrete building with a large neon sign that says WORD on top"
where WORD will be replaced by a word from the list above.
I will run the prompt 10 times for each word. If there are 4 images per prompt, we will get 40 images per word. For 10 words, we have 400 images.
DALLE-3 must score >=50% accuracy for each word, for that word to be called "CORRECTLY SPELLED".
DALLE-3 must spell >50% of the words as CORRECTLY SPELLED for this market to resolve to YES.
I will be blind to case i.e. both upper case and lower case spellings, as well as a mixture of cases is acceptable.
|
2023-09-20T10:45:24
|
2023-11-21T14:04:46
|
2023-11-21T14:04:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-obRBO6L9uREvRgYyqJoh
|
Will Man City make it to the semifinals in the 23/24 UEFA Champions League
|
Resolve Yes if Manchester City competes in the semiFinals match of the UEFA Champions League.
Resolve No if Manchester City knocked out in quarter-finals or earlier.
|
2023-09-20T10:03:27
|
2024-04-18T20:59:00
|
2024-05-12T19:25:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iO6EueR6lsgrghQDi0Kj
|
Will McLaren score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if McLaren scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints
|
2023-09-20T09:39:03
|
2023-11-26T06:37:24
|
2023-11-26T06:37:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4pUPIYHkmC6UkMKloupS
|
Will Mercedes score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Mercedes scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints
|
2023-09-20T09:39:01
|
2023-11-26T06:38:44
|
2023-11-26T06:38:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZXv2h8UfH5aT37SNfxWq
|
Will Lance Stroll finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:38:52
|
2023-11-26T06:42:11
|
2023-11-26T06:42:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bV26cVhyJUAnKOFpXukB
|
Will Pierre Gasly finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:38:51
|
2023-11-26T06:42:36
|
2023-11-26T06:42:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DHVN2U7kTBXRlQPJ3A6Z
|
Will Carlos Sainz finish in the top 6 places at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
Driver must be classified in one of the first six positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:38:39
|
2023-11-26T06:45:15
|
2023-11-26T06:45:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z1DJghyGvGlupcNdY0UE
|
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:38:38
|
2023-11-26T06:43:32
|
2023-11-26T06:43:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z0uo55iTEvHwBl4hMxN0
|
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:38:37
|
2023-11-26T06:43:09
|
2023-11-26T06:43:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TGMdvjtJi50Dp5nq7C7b
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:38:35
|
2023-11-26T06:43:46
|
2023-11-26T06:43:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5FxjOTuiHv4RiKRXtPEs
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
|
Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:38:31
|
2023-11-26T06:36:32
|
2023-11-26T06:36:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eTKYaH9VA3kqnZLoR3Jj
|
Will Mercedes score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Mercedes scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints
|
2023-09-20T09:38:02
|
2023-11-19T00:03:24
|
2023-11-19T00:03:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RjX9Lc5KOYyCBhZdg0CD
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race
|
2023-09-20T09:38:00
|
2023-11-18T23:34:53
|
2023-11-18T23:34:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wUUcxoFoDT6d0LXRWRh2
|
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race.
|
2023-09-20T09:37:58
|
2023-11-18T23:55:13
|
2023-11-18T23:55:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NsBmj3Yp6bNwl6CwtB3l
|
Will Carlos Sainz finish in the top 6 places at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
|
Driver must be classified in one of the first six positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:37:43
|
2023-11-18T23:36:41
|
2023-11-18T23:36:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wmk0xkj6EpAHBKp3Zmbe
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:37:36
|
2023-11-18T23:58:47
|
2023-11-18T23:58:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8kKQsZOdnbGMHWWPTavF
|
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:37:34
|
2023-11-18T23:41:29
|
2023-11-18T23:41:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-76iZjUOuGLq2Yl9PwSfj
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
|
Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
|
2023-09-20T09:37:28
|
2023-11-18T23:35:41
|
2023-11-18T23:35:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P9yRJRg6Dehpc6MSYoef
|
At the end of November will destiny be regularly taking any ADHD meds?
|
"regularly" here means at least once a week.
Drugs which are used as an off-label treatment for ADHD count too e.g. (Wellbutrin).
If he just got a prescription on November 30th it still counts as Yes.
If he is on medication for a while but he doesn't take any after November 20th, this will resolve No.
If he stops giving us updates on his drug use, I will try to use my best judgement.
|
2023-09-20T09:01:03
|
2023-11-30T14:59:00
|
2023-12-01T10:15:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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