id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-MsYgNU8b1poq5LZRmMzd | Will someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump be inaugurated on January 20, 2025? | This question will resolve yes if someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump is inaugurated at the next US Presidential inauguration anticipated on Jan 20, 2025.
If the inauguration date is adjusted this question will resolve based on whenever the next inauguration is. The actual date is not material. | 2023-09-21T17:41:11 | 2025-01-20T11:48:28 | 2025-01-20T11:48:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZWmIF5BceBw6e9EN0q3B | Will Grimes join Manifold in 2023? | What will it take to make you capitulate? | 2023-09-21T16:57:48 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:58:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-553UUjLmO36y7NZkyd8Y | Will anyone have had sex with Aella due to a market on Manifold by the end of January 2024? | https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1704947908976767432
This only resolves YES if it's known conclusivly that this occurred. A very indirect reason like "I saw this person on Manifold and we got to talking elsewhere" doesn't count, but "I did it to manipulate a market" does. In other words, the counterfactual "if a ... | 2023-09-21T14:08:46 | 2024-02-01T23:59:00 | 2024-02-04T18:00:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GJEcrsb3szpm2XCiRdbI | Will the S&P 500 close higher on September 22 than it closed on September 21? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of September (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a priz... | 2023-09-21T13:26:10 | 2023-09-22T11:00:00 | 2023-09-22T15:42:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2NyP4Ykyi7TasyR180Ao | Will Erling Haaland outscore another Premier league team in the 2023-24 season? | If haaland ends the season with more goals than another premier team scored, this resolves to YES. If its equal or less then it resolves NO.
Only PL-goals are counted. | 2023-09-21T13:12:26 | 2024-05-30T08:01:47 | 2024-05-30T08:01:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fV4CB7JVm5M7fmrC6Cy6 | Will DALL-E 3 correctly respond to prompt 1 from the Scott Aaronson/Gary Marcus/Earnest Davis paper? | This paper. Prompt 1 is:
a red basketball with flowers on it, in front of blue one with a similar pattern
At least half of the generated images must be correct. I'll only try it once. | 2023-09-21T11:17:09 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:53:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fXKa3aNiEyKiSi3ddt8x | Will Ukraine Retake Control of Tokmak by January 15th 2024? | This market will resolve positively if, at any point in time before January 15, 2024 at 11:59PM ET, Russia is no longer in total control of "Lenina vulytsia" in Tokmak, Zaporizka oblast.
The primary resolution source for this market is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). As of August, there have been reports of ... | 2023-09-21T11:13:25 | 2024-01-16T20:59:00 | 2024-01-17T07:10:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0clyYGHg9OYsTUnJPsJS | Will DALL-E 3 be able to generate arbitrary non-adversarial text? | Resolves YES if a prompt is found that lets me paste in a string of text of any length and has that text correctly appear in at least 25% of the images it generates.
I will exclude any strings that may confuse DALL-E, like "Please make this text invisible". I'll also exclude any that contain any characters other than ... | 2023-09-21T11:06:22 | 2023-12-30T13:36:39 | 2023-12-30T13:36:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tvKY4RnjxajkcmwLgZTx | Will DALL-E 3 be able to create a correct calendar page? | DALL-E 2 returns nonsense like this:
[image]I'll give people a week to find such a prompt on DALL-E 3, and if it gets all the details correct, resolve YES. | 2023-09-21T11:00:18 | 2023-12-30T13:23:12 | 2023-12-30T13:23:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LgUvZTyZRwxYMTRAyXjd | Will DALL-E 3 be able to count? | Current image models are terrible at this. Whenever I first get access to DALL-E 3, I will give it 10 basic numerical prompts. In at least 90% of those prompts, at least 50% of the images must have the correct number of objects.
If one object is partially cut off by the edge of the image, it counts towards the total a... | 2023-09-21T10:49:02 | 2023-12-30T13:27:23 | 2023-12-30T13:27:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RYRnV51VBSDbm98kLIaI | Will DALL-E 3 be able to reliably produce images of every common polygon? | Current image models are terrible at this. When DALL-E 3 comes out, people will have 1 week to find a prompt that works. (The timer starts when I get access, or when someone else gets access who's willing to test out prompts from anyone in the market.)
The prompt should be some string of text such that the name of a p... | 2023-09-21T10:00:57 | 2023-12-29T22:28:50 | 2023-12-29T22:28:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wkjulUKKeF3tGM6Usvag | Will Destiny play Lies of P before November? | Will Destiny the streamer play at least 1 hour of the Lies of P game on stream before November 1st? | 2023-09-21T09:50:52 | 2023-11-01T21:59:00 | 2023-11-05T08:30:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jERQCcSAGB04qVhx1uJn | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 22nd September than it closed on 21st September? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 22nd September than it did on Thursday 21st September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute pr... | 2023-09-21T09:25:01 | 2023-09-22T08:30:00 | 2023-09-22T08:54:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HIcxYYIfYXFIBOzsPtfA | Compelling evidence tying the Indian State to the death of Mr. Nijjar made public before 2024 | "Compelling evidence" is anything that directly and clearly ties the Indian state to the killing beyond most reasonable doubt. It doesn't have to be quite as conclusive as, say, the evidence revealed in the Khashoggi killing, but it needs to be relatively extensive. In case of a public disclosure of unclear quality, I'... | 2023-09-21T08:22:00 | 2024-01-01T19:02:11 | 2024-01-01T19:02:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5N2EWs8JXy8WfVH5s2GW | Will it snow in Atlanta before 2024 | Will there be measurable snowfall in Atlanta, GA before Jan 1 2024?
To confirm I will use NOWData on https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=ffc and select the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson airport(listed as Atlanta Hartsfie, GA) for the location. Here's the results from 2000-2023
[image]The blanks mean there was no mea... | 2023-09-21T07:37:07 | 2024-01-01T08:34:18 | 2024-01-01T08:34:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3rNq3Rnc3hDwc9ZwxxKN | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of November? | YES Still alive before December 1 (EDT) | 2023-09-21T06:59:58 | 2023-12-01T04:37:30 | 2023-12-01T04:37:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hXDybB4UiXFV3GsOmmvd | If Trump is reelected will he be impeached before taking the oath? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-21T06:28:35 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:05:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iPCKpilNGQOPzBbh9TLz | Will Ohio Legalize recreational Marijuana in the Ohio November '23 general elections? | Ohio Issue 2, Marijuana Legalization Initiative
https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_2,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2023)
[link preview] | 2023-09-21T02:47:17 | 2023-11-08T19:43:00 | 2023-11-08T19:43:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M5w3G7EkEJeIZDjOsEXD | Will Ohioans pass the abortion amendment on the Nov '23 ballot. | https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Right_to_Make_Reproductive_Decisions_Including_Abortion_Initiative_(2023)
[link preview] | 2023-09-21T02:43:50 | 2023-11-08T19:44:16 | 2023-11-08T19:44:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XO2G8DWGIMGnDo39hMBa | Will Azerbaijan attack Armenia by Dec 15th 2023? | YES if military troops of Azerbaijan will cross at least for a 1 day official Armenian border on any OSINT map before 16th of December.
P.S. Previously occupied or contested terrirories (~ 50 km2) not counted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29 | 2023-09-21T00:31:55 | 2023-12-14T14:59:00 | 2023-12-14T23:37:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f1XHEVMh0D8ILKftBLSY | Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 2nd November meeting? | The Bank of England meets on 2nd November to set interest rates.
The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.
The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it.
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-infla... | 2023-09-20T23:11:27 | 2023-11-02T05:18:20 | 2023-11-02T05:18:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5KwPnN3SvwdyFEul3tqK | Will any country's current Head of State or Government die in the next month? (Sept-Oct) | Presidents, Prime Ministers, Monarchs, etc.
Must be a country's leader (for governments with both, either head of state or head of government is fine, even if ceremonial) as of this question's creation date on Aug 21 2023 or become such (and die) by question close. Doesn't need to die "in office".
Members of a counci... | 2023-09-20T15:32:39 | 2023-10-20T23:59:00 | 2023-10-21T02:02:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xl2sGalfjz5k2LVT7fxp | Will the Senate Majority Leader in the U.S. be a Republican on January 25th, 2025? | The position of the Senate Majority Leader in the United States is held by a member of the political party that holds the majority of seats in the U.S. Senate. The individual holding this position has a significant influence on legislative priorities and the overall direction of the Senate. As of the last known date, t... | 2023-09-20T15:05:56 | 2025-01-25T23:59:00 | 2025-02-04T17:34:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3DvORldtJ0nxlxvFAU5o | Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Raiders win
No - Steelers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-09-20T13:46:34 | 2023-09-24T20:29:10 | 2023-09-24T20:29:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZSKOA0U8bpK1bWYIvaLU | Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Chicago Bears in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Chiefs win
No - Bears win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-09-20T13:44:01 | 2023-09-24T16:23:05 | 2023-09-24T16:23:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YatLMVnT4TNtMe2YcuSy | Will Fabiano Caruana win the US Chess Championship? | Resolves positively if Fabiano Caruana repeats as the 2023 US Chess Champion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Chess_Championship
This tournament will take place between October 5-18, 2023.
https://www.uschesschamps.com/2023-us-championships/overview
This market may close or resolve early if Caruana clinches the ti... | 2023-09-20T13:43:53 | 2023-10-17T17:10:56 | 2023-10-17T17:10:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4GggJppXAQEGFlj512VT | Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Carolina Panthers in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Seahawks win
No - Panthers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-09-20T13:42:46 | 2023-09-24T16:35:00 | 2023-09-24T16:40:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pllfIM88hgiOYVqHtTJi | Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Indianapolis Colts in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Ravens win
No - Colts win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-09-20T13:39:56 | 2023-09-24T13:30:38 | 2023-09-24T13:30:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OPivQ3LASiT4nTMR70po | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Houston Texans in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Jaguars win
No - Texans win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-09-20T13:38:40 | 2023-09-24T13:07:59 | 2023-09-24T13:08:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TYZHKAg425ll6Zje382U | Will the New York Jets beat the New England Patriots in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Jets win
No - Patriots win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-09-20T13:36:06 | 2023-09-24T13:11:14 | 2023-09-24T13:11:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9QllVOerBJkMJTOJMNqM | Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Denver Broncos in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - 49ers win
No - Giants win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-09-20T13:33:33 | 2023-09-24T13:26:08 | 2023-09-24T13:26:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tYJtkKKR1koloF9HhaiQ | NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars? | The game will take place at Nissan Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets... | 2023-09-20T13:11:52 | 2024-01-07T13:00:47 | 2024-01-07T13:00:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZOrvLmIq4sriA9T2jmOF | NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears? | The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:11:32 | 2024-01-07T16:18:26 | 2024-01-07T16:18:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gCQ6UlDtlZhRGnrUqrJY | NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings? | The game will take place at Ford Field at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets qui... | 2023-09-20T13:11:30 | 2024-01-07T13:14:35 | 2024-01-07T13:14:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oIJNIitcjOoZnN1FYxKY | NFL Week 18 (Jan 5): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? | The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on January 5, 2024.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve marke... | 2023-09-20T13:11:24 | 2024-01-06T16:30:16 | 2024-01-06T16:30:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QGDCDFDaY2dt3H4IOkZd | NFL Week 17 (Dec 31): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? | The game will take place at Lumen Field at 1:05 PST on December 31, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets q... | 2023-09-20T13:11:12 | 2023-12-31T16:33:44 | 2023-12-31T16:33:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s4Ht90QG9363tbmC4DFy | NFL Week 17 (Dec 31): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Miami Dolphins? | The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 31, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mar... | 2023-09-20T13:10:50 | 2023-12-31T13:15:45 | 2023-12-31T13:15:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ATypVxNOjYOGEof6Ekwt | NFL Week 17 (Dec 30): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions? | The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 30, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:10:48 | 2023-12-30T20:24:09 | 2023-12-30T20:24:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oSVt42AJzPV6WuqdxZgm | NFL Week 16 (Dec 25): Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Baltimore Ravens? | The game will take place at Levi's® Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 25, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve marke... | 2023-09-20T13:10:43 | 2023-12-25T20:39:45 | 2023-12-25T20:39:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ss0gQrc5y8VGHCoeW4zD | NFL Week 16 (Dec 25): Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Las Vegas Raiders? | The game will take place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 25, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event... | 2023-09-20T13:10:39 | 2023-12-25T13:31:00 | 2023-12-25T13:31:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x1ouubsTbbkFmobjOJ6K | NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Denver Broncos beat the New England Patriots? | The game will take place at Empower Field at Mile High at 5:15 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I re... | 2023-09-20T13:10:36 | 2023-12-24T20:27:25 | 2023-12-24T20:27:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FIUm5Pe06axqTYlL5Aai | NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Dallas Cowboys? | The game will take place at Hard Rock Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mar... | 2023-09-20T13:10:34 | 2023-12-24T17:03:56 | 2023-12-24T17:03:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fuUD9w6quV15g2aMexeI | NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions? | The game will take place at U.S. Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve ma... | 2023-09-20T13:10:23 | 2023-12-24T14:12:55 | 2023-12-24T14:12:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-voInQ5N8PNG9wc56dBLs | NFL Week 16 (Dec 24): Will the Carolina Panthers beat the Green Bay Packers? | The game will take place at Bank of America Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 24, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I reso... | 2023-09-20T13:10:19 | 2023-12-24T14:13:14 | 2023-12-24T14:13:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0Fu8Udk0FKR4W6eyPKEx | NFL Week 16 (Dec 23): Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Buffalo Bills? | The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 5:00 PST on December 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:10:14 | 2023-12-23T21:43:35 | 2023-12-23T21:43:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6nemeXXBOqwFPoIHDRbc | NFL Week 16 (Dec 23): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals? | The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 1:30 PST on December 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mark... | 2023-09-20T13:10:12 | 2023-12-23T16:37:18 | 2023-12-23T16:37:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iHztQhlB8iNgUU4ETl5q | NFL Week 16 (Dec 21): Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the New Orleans Saints? | The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 21, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:10:10 | 2023-12-21T20:25:52 | 2023-12-21T20:25:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mZ2iMcermuA7uAMZrcdc | NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Baltimore Ravens? | The game will take place at EverBank Stadium at 5:20 PST on December 17, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mark... | 2023-09-20T13:10:05 | 2023-12-17T20:29:04 | 2023-12-17T20:29:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6JoKsyaWNVKsNiok4k7v | NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Philadelphia Eagles? | The game will take place at Lumen Field at 1:25 PST on December 17, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets q... | 2023-09-20T13:10:03 | 2023-12-18T20:19:09 | 2023-12-18T20:19:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NDLZieLrCiycK3beP3OR | NFL Week 15 (Dec 17): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Dallas Cowboys? | The game will take place at Highmark Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 17, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mark... | 2023-09-20T13:10:00 | 2023-12-17T16:36:27 | 2023-12-17T16:36:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-J6QyZyIqBAVvkGW4lR28 | NFL Week 15 (Dec 16): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Denver Broncos? | The game will take place at Ford Field at 5:15 PST on December 14, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets qu... | 2023-09-20T13:09:39 | 2023-12-16T20:19:15 | 2023-12-16T20:19:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DEfSXu5ZWFnHde4EMpgP | NFL Week 15 (Dec 14): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Minnesota Vikings? | The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 14, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve market... | 2023-09-20T13:09:35 | 2023-12-16T14:39:46 | 2023-12-16T14:39:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sHKO0GwxBC1UmA19QZu7 | NFL Week 14 (Dec 10): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions? | The game will take place at Soldier Field at 10:00 PST on December 10, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve market... | 2023-09-20T13:09:06 | 2023-12-10T13:53:34 | 2023-12-10T13:53:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fsCSKlMIJRZCev00B2qa | NFL Week 13 (Dec 4): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cincinnati Bengals? | The game will take place at EverBank Stadium at 5:15 PST on December 4, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve marke... | 2023-09-20T13:08:57 | 2023-12-04T20:53:00 | 2023-12-04T20:53:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hWEozKHfrvKKiwIxv7yd | NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs? | The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 5:20 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:08:54 | 2023-12-03T20:44:12 | 2023-12-03T20:44:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cPjnsS7boToNX23hmTNr | NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the San Francisco 49ers? | The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 1:25 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolv... | 2023-09-20T13:08:52 | 2023-12-03T16:44:30 | 2023-12-03T16:44:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JaDeB2eYXCyohe2UiGRX | NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cleveland Browns? | The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 1:25 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets q... | 2023-09-20T13:08:50 | 2023-12-03T16:56:56 | 2023-12-03T16:56:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0H400XKW2Qzuywc4DmQV | NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Houston Texans beat the Denver Broncos? | The game will take place at NRG Stadium at 1:05 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets qu... | 2023-09-20T13:08:48 | 2023-12-03T13:16:21 | 2023-12-03T13:16:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qhWYuVJp4BbzbQ65PuVh | NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts? | The game will take place at Nissan Stadium at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve market... | 2023-09-20T13:08:43 | 2023-12-03T14:21:31 | 2023-12-03T14:21:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YdsCxhkhDTPGhMhAPlFD | NFL Week 13 (Dec 3): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Detroit Lions? | The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 10:00 PST on December 3, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mar... | 2023-09-20T13:08:35 | 2023-12-03T13:15:57 | 2023-12-03T13:15:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YVgdC2rqjHPQAOqPrNy1 | NFL Week 13 (Nov 30): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Seattle Seahawks? | The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 5:15 PST on November 30, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:08:30 | 2023-11-30T20:48:56 | 2023-11-30T20:48:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vX6ya8KdFf4Xsmmxgsjf | NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Baltimore Ravens? | The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 5:20 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:08:25 | 2023-11-26T20:32:29 | 2023-11-26T20:32:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jmbyTWkuaKowjhZCR2E9 | NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Buffalo Bills? | The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 1:25 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resol... | 2023-09-20T13:08:23 | 2023-11-26T17:07:17 | 2023-11-26T17:07:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Oz5gOpbYqZAreMyyEg49 | NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Houston Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars? | The game will take place at NRG Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:08:06 | 2023-11-26T13:25:32 | 2023-11-26T13:25:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6KumKlfPPYLbsruxUT3q | NFL Week 12 (Nov 26): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? | The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 26, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve marke... | 2023-09-20T13:08:04 | 2023-11-26T13:27:20 | 2023-11-26T13:27:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FYl4tZV1ZTMzZsfO2QIY | NFL Week 12 (Nov 23): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers? | The game will take place at Lumen Field at 5:20 PST on November 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets q... | 2023-09-20T13:07:56 | 2023-11-23T20:21:45 | 2023-11-23T20:21:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DHmtZhl95KnMAs2zkF63 | NFL Week 12 (Nov 23): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders? | The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 1:30 PST on November 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:07:54 | 2023-11-23T16:45:43 | 2023-11-23T16:45:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YNpN9rUrvLguPlxdPYLt | NFL Week 12 (Nov 23): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers? | The game will take place at Ford Field at 9:30 PST on November 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets qu... | 2023-09-20T13:07:52 | 2023-11-23T13:05:48 | 2023-11-23T13:05:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XyMVNCsSqHI98hOouGqg | NFL Week 11 (Nov 19): Will the Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? | The game will take place at Cleveland Browns Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 19, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I res... | 2023-09-20T13:07:25 | 2023-11-19T13:25:16 | 2023-11-19T13:25:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IUfrH9Ri5g1bopNPkeox | NFL Week 11 (Nov 16): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals? | The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 5:15 PST on November 16, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mark... | 2023-09-20T13:07:21 | 2023-11-16T20:41:23 | 2023-11-16T20:41:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KMSwAMg0mCk9PhuIJU4W | NFL Week 10 (Nov 12): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Giants? | The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 1:25 PST on November 12, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:07:11 | 2023-11-12T16:43:08 | 2023-11-12T16:43:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DPLpeUWchj6dj409UIjm | NFL Week 10 (Nov 12): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Green Bay Packers? | The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 12, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mar... | 2023-09-20T13:07:01 | 2023-11-12T13:13:09 | 2023-11-12T13:13:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-98EpvMzWphBGJktzxumZ | NFL Week 10 (Nov 12): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns? | The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 12, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve mar... | 2023-09-20T13:06:51 | 2023-11-12T13:27:36 | 2023-11-12T13:27:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tE4vhUxEm1SLFri1vhSB | NFL Week 10 (Nov 9): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Carolina Panthers? | The game will take place at Soldier Field at 5:15 PST on November 9, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that otherwise does not have a . winner (e.g Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A .
One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets ... | 2023-09-20T13:06:47 | 2023-11-09T20:40:11 | 2023-11-09T20:40:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WddkjZk0zkWVGvXqn7eP | Will Destiny appear on jubilee again before 2024? | Jubilee video has to be published before the end of the year. | 2023-09-20T12:23:05 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:21:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gZaRNijQfzwL4JUIZRK4 | Will DALL-E 3 be able to get DeWeese lab/Gary Marcus' "red conical block on top of..." prompt a majority of the time? | Gary Marcus made a post discussing the Imagen and DALLE-2 model's inability to fully grasp language, particularly around relational undestanding of objects in a prompt: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/horse-rides-astronaut
OpenAI just released DALLE-3, https://openai.com/dall-e-3, which they claim "represents a leap... | 2023-09-20T11:54:51 | 2023-10-11T08:26:58 | 2023-10-11T08:26:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uAZOYq7yVRzvks6hmWAb | Will DALLE-3 be able to create "A horse riding a pickle"? | I will try this prompt 10 times. Resolves YES if it generates it correctly > 4 times.
In case of ambiguity, I will use my judgement. I will not bet in the market. | 2023-09-20T11:19:08 | 2023-10-20T19:29:14 | 2023-10-20T19:29:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6TM4wF8k3Kzd6ccTaIEZ | Will DALL·E 3 be accessible to the public by November 15? | Accessible means accessible at the same level that DALL·E 2 is now.
This market resolves at 11:59 pm November 15th Pacific time.
From the OpenAI website:
[image]Edit (2023-09-22): Some clarifications:
If DALL·E 3 is available on labs.openai.com this will resolve YES even if API access is not available to the pu... | 2023-09-20T11:15:34 | 2023-11-15T23:59:00 | 2023-11-16T06:40:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WV2EAf58rppPbIpdueqQ | Will Vaush publicly apologise to Destiny before the 2024 US election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-20T11:15:05 | 2024-11-06T05:29:00 | 2024-11-06T16:00:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CBGynRGi3N4ngez6E9Ga | Will it be possible to generate NSFW images through DALLE-3? | A single example won't resolve this yes, but a few (>3, <10) examples would, regardless of the complexity of the prompt.
I will resolve this to YES if it is possible to do so upon release. If not, I will wait for 1 month before resolution, during which time, we can try different techniques. | 2023-09-20T11:01:21 | 2023-10-16T15:56:02 | 2023-10-16T15:56:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T82uDi32nE04MKIJGude | Will OpenAI announce availability of tunable GPT-4 on November 6th, 2023 - developers day | https://openai.com/blog/announcing-openai-devday
[link preview] | 2023-09-20T10:54:24 | 2023-11-08T20:59:00 | 2023-11-11T11:48:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fDPknlYV7BKx5jYLYDmH | Will DALLE-3 create correct text (for individual words) in images upon release? | The following words will be used:
['apple', 'cloud', 'stone', 'river', 'brush', 'flame', 'grass', 'pizza', 'metal', 'sugar'].
The following prompt will be used:
I will run a prompt: "picture of a large overgrown concrete building with a large neon sign that says WORD on top"
where WORD will be replaced by a word fr... | 2023-09-20T10:45:24 | 2023-11-21T14:04:46 | 2023-11-21T14:04:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-obRBO6L9uREvRgYyqJoh | Will Man City make it to the semifinals in the 23/24 UEFA Champions League | Resolve Yes if Manchester City competes in the semiFinals match of the UEFA Champions League.
Resolve No if Manchester City knocked out in quarter-finals or earlier. | 2023-09-20T10:03:27 | 2024-04-18T20:59:00 | 2024-05-12T19:25:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iO6EueR6lsgrghQDi0Kj | Will McLaren score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if McLaren scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints | 2023-09-20T09:39:03 | 2023-11-26T06:37:24 | 2023-11-26T06:37:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4pUPIYHkmC6UkMKloupS | Will Mercedes score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Mercedes scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints | 2023-09-20T09:39:01 | 2023-11-26T06:38:44 | 2023-11-26T06:38:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZXv2h8UfH5aT37SNfxWq | Will Lance Stroll finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edg... | 2023-09-20T09:38:52 | 2023-11-26T06:42:11 | 2023-11-26T06:42:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bV26cVhyJUAnKOFpXukB | Will Pierre Gasly finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edg... | 2023-09-20T09:38:51 | 2023-11-26T06:42:36 | 2023-11-26T06:42:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DHVN2U7kTBXRlQPJ3A6Z | Will Carlos Sainz finish in the top 6 places at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Driver must be classified in one of the first six positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontempla... | 2023-09-20T09:38:39 | 2023-11-26T06:45:15 | 2023-11-26T06:45:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z1DJghyGvGlupcNdY0UE | Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edg... | 2023-09-20T09:38:38 | 2023-11-26T06:43:32 | 2023-11-26T06:43:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z0uo55iTEvHwBl4hMxN0 | Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edg... | 2023-09-20T09:38:37 | 2023-11-26T06:43:09 | 2023-11-26T06:43:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TGMdvjtJi50Dp5nq7C7b | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edg... | 2023-09-20T09:38:35 | 2023-11-26T06:43:46 | 2023-11-26T06:43:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5FxjOTuiHv4RiKRXtPEs | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based... | 2023-09-20T09:38:31 | 2023-11-26T06:36:32 | 2023-11-26T06:36:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eTKYaH9VA3kqnZLoR3Jj | Will Mercedes score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Mercedes scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints | 2023-09-20T09:38:02 | 2023-11-19T00:03:24 | 2023-11-19T00:03:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RjX9Lc5KOYyCBhZdg0CD | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race | 2023-09-20T09:38:00 | 2023-11-18T23:34:53 | 2023-11-18T23:34:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wUUcxoFoDT6d0LXRWRh2 | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race. | 2023-09-20T09:37:58 | 2023-11-18T23:55:13 | 2023-11-18T23:55:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NsBmj3Yp6bNwl6CwtB3l | Will Carlos Sainz finish in the top 6 places at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Driver must be classified in one of the first six positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontempla... | 2023-09-20T09:37:43 | 2023-11-18T23:36:41 | 2023-11-18T23:36:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wmk0xkj6EpAHBKp3Zmbe | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edg... | 2023-09-20T09:37:36 | 2023-11-18T23:58:47 | 2023-11-18T23:58:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8kKQsZOdnbGMHWWPTavF | Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edg... | 2023-09-20T09:37:34 | 2023-11-18T23:41:29 | 2023-11-18T23:41:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-76iZjUOuGLq2Yl9PwSfj | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based... | 2023-09-20T09:37:28 | 2023-11-18T23:35:41 | 2023-11-18T23:35:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P9yRJRg6Dehpc6MSYoef | At the end of November will destiny be regularly taking any ADHD meds? | "regularly" here means at least once a week.
Drugs which are used as an off-label treatment for ADHD count too e.g. (Wellbutrin).
If he just got a prescription on November 30th it still counts as Yes.
If he is on medication for a while but he doesn't take any after November 20th, this will resolve No.
If he stops g... | 2023-09-20T09:01:03 | 2023-11-30T14:59:00 | 2023-12-01T10:15:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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