id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-ggKEjj3eCkzAHjSypgXA | Will Brent Crude Oil exceed 100$ at least once before Oct 1? | This market will resolve to Yes as long as it exceeds it at least once during anytime the market is open. It does need to have it exceeded only at open or close.
It should happen in the month of September 2023.
I will only rely on the following link: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BZW00:NYMEX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiC... | 2023-09-20T08:41:45 | 2023-09-30T08:59:00 | 2023-09-30T18:40:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vpYPO1LBQwVcTngsHWdV | Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women? | Resolves the same way as %Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?, unless that one resolves N/A or something else weird occurs, in which case this market resolves according to the actual survey data as released by Aella. | 2023-09-20T08:26:27 | 2023-09-20T22:35:22 | 2023-09-20T22:35:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gTOKWu1Jt7VPUT6ghBoT | Will the European Central Bank raise the interest rates until the end of 2023? | The necessary monetary policy response to return inflation to its 2% target has been unprecedented in the history of the Eurosystem. The key ECB interest rates started to increase in July 2022, and have increased by 425 basis points since then.
Resolved NO: https://www.bde.es/wbe/en/noticias-eventos/actualidad-bce/dec... | 2023-09-20T07:47:51 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:14:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3iJYJGLk04xF8ryDRGX4 | Will Elon Musk retain the position of CEO (or ‘Technoking’) of Tesla AND SpaceX until January 1, 2025? | Context: In 2018, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Elon Musk for falsely tweeting that he had secured funding for a private takeover of Tesla. To settle the case, Musk stepped down as the chairman of Tesla and paid a $20 million fine.
Federal prosecutors are currently probing whether Tesla’s comp... | 2023-09-20T06:20:05 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T14:05:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qpmd6PARgocmESV0q8RA | Will any LLM released by EOY 2024 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic? | As per Anthropic's scaling policy here: https://www.anthropic.com/index/anthropics-responsible-scaling-policy
ASL-3 is defined as: "ASL-3 refers to systems that substantially increase the risk of catastrophic misuse compared to non-AI baselines (e.g. search engines or textbooks) OR that show low-level autonomous capab... | 2023-09-20T04:53:02 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:40:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lnTMErzvaTKwMeEmW1Ux | Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 18th October be below 6%? | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 18th October.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
Mar... | 2023-09-19T23:12:37 | 2023-10-17T23:43:23 | 2023-10-17T23:43:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LPBk3sSdbzGuhRC7GJNu | Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 18th October be below 7%? | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 18th October.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
Mar... | 2023-09-19T23:12:20 | 2023-10-17T23:46:24 | 2023-10-17T23:46:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tobPy3lqRJnICz56MkUp | Will the US Government condemn India for its alleged involvement in the killing of Sikh separatist leader? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-19T22:14:47 | 2023-11-20T00:13:17 | 2023-11-20T00:13:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dgOWHR829tjRWoAr6uoE | Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President by Feb 20th 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, makes a direct and explicit public statement endorsing Donald Trump for the United States Presidential election before 11:59 PM ET on Feb 20, 2023. The endorsement must be a distinct declaration of support for Trump's Presidential candi... | 2023-09-19T17:02:58 | 2024-01-21T14:39:09 | 2024-01-21T14:39:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OMCKW4f0RJZnea21tpqa | Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President by Jan 20th 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, makes a direct and explicit public statement endorsing Donald Trump for the United States Presidential election before 11:59 PM ET on Jan 20, 2023. The endorsement must be a distinct declaration of support for Trump's Presidential candi... | 2023-09-19T17:02:43 | 2024-01-21T10:38:13 | 2024-01-21T10:38:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-818bo8mdZu77jnGo6RHl | Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President in 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, makes a direct and explicit public statement endorsing Donald Trump for the United States Presidential election before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. The endorsement must be a distinct declaration of support for Trump's Presidential ... | 2023-09-19T17:01:59 | 2023-12-30T15:58:11 | 2023-12-30T15:58:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mvnfH6kSwCmkEwMGI6pz | Will the US see a large-scale riot by the end of 2024? | For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:
At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, ... | 2023-09-19T13:19:26 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T17:08:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V3dcyuvT88AGxe1dsdcM | Will Hunter Biden face new criminal charges before November 1? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if new criminal charges are filed against Hunter Biden before November 1, 2023, 12:00 AM ET. A "new criminal charge" is defined as a charge that has not been formally filed against him before September 18, 2023. If no new charges are filed by the resolution date, the market will resolv... | 2023-09-19T13:13:19 | 2023-11-01T19:54:05 | 2023-11-01T19:54:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5Lat9SXQzkBilAyZVONr | Will Trump be disqualified from California's primary ballot? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially confirmed by the California Secretary of State's Office that Donald Trump has been legally disqualified from being on California's March 2024 primary ballot. Official confirmation may be in the form of a public announcement, press release, or an update on the Secret... | 2023-09-19T13:12:37 | 2023-12-30T14:23:17 | 2023-12-30T14:23:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-olVTkld7kQSdzK1KAlHL | Will the new LLM released by Meta be open-source? | Meta has acquired enough GPUs and is preparing to train a model that rivals GPT-4 in early next year. The question is whether it would be open-source or closed-source.
Resolves YES if it's open-source.
Resolves NO if it's closed-source.
Resolves N/A if Meta does not release a new LLM in 2024... | 2023-09-19T12:42:33 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-03-07T17:59:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pn5PmePjeoZSaGV3gXlP | Will Trump receive a gag order by October 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if ex-president of the United States Donald J. Trump becomes the subject of a gag order by any Federal or State court in the US between September 18 and October 15, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "gag order" is bro... | 2023-09-19T12:36:50 | 2023-10-03T16:01:17 | 2023-10-03T16:01:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U3qCW4C0nipjZHR5NynW | Will Trudeau take back his accusation that India is responsible for Singh's assassination before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-19T11:10:20 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:58:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ruzlct60WpVvKknEgrzb | Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | South Africa is holding a general election in 2024. The African National Congress (ANC) has won a majority of the vote in every election since 1994. However, since 2020, some opinion polls have the ANC receiving less than 50% support.
Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in South Africa's 2024 election?
For... | 2023-09-19T10:22:41 | 2024-06-02T09:23:45 | 2024-06-02T09:23:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1MN2KmpZ3a1gjCLNkxvE | Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2024 | Lost for any reason. Within 2024 calendar year.
Counts
Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary
Does not count
Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to... | 2023-09-19T08:21:13 | 2024-05-30T09:46:56 | 2024-05-30T09:46:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kJIHOHpC6lrxkUY5LGzE | Will Inter Miami beat New York City FC? ⚽ MLS | Inter Miami wins = yes / NYC wins or draws = no | 2023-09-19T07:26:27 | 2023-09-30T20:03:13 | 2023-09-30T20:03:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MljxwfdZv9d5VBVWv0GR | Will the Chicago Bears maul the Kansas City Chiefs? | YES if Bears win. NO if Chiefs win or tie. | 2023-09-19T06:56:02 | 2023-09-24T20:28:05 | 2023-09-24T20:28:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QNlQ0njBcpty98BDiCPR | Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? | YES if Eagles win. NO if Buccaneers win or tie. | 2023-09-19T06:54:31 | 2023-09-25T19:13:22 | 2023-09-25T19:13:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XXJ2KJDOFEt1PSxft2DF | Will Xi and Putin meet in person in October 2023? | [link preview]See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/VAfc3f/will-putin-and-xi-conduct-an-in-per) | 2023-09-19T06:09:47 | 2023-10-17T04:47:51 | 2023-10-17T04:47:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UU7WqVkSOQio7UbUE3Y1 | Will Elm programming language have a new official release before the end of 2024? | Most recent release was on Oct 21, 2019: https://github.com/elm/compiler/releases/tag/0.19.1
Related links:
https://old.reddit.com/r/elm/comments/y6hgwx/is_elm_still_being_developed/
https://github.com/elm/compiler/issues/2308#issuecomment-1691960135
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36274921
(https://www.youtu... | 2023-09-19T04:44:36 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-04T16:02:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E3qDeBRJbcWXSn8xr0c7 | Will the Labour Party win a landslide victory in the next UK general election? [100 seat majority] | Definition
The longstanding definition of a landslide victory in the UK is securing a majority of at least than 100 seats in Parliament. While newspapers etc have sometimes used the term more loosely, for the purposes of this question the 100 seat majority will remain the defining point.
Resolution
The date of th... | 2023-09-18T23:03:50 | 2024-07-03T15:59:00 | 2024-07-07T23:42:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LB07e5e58ArYaTxs35Hm | Will crude oil crude prices raise to $100 a barrel in 2023? | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-september-19 | 2023-09-18T21:14:43 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:54:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB | Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women? | In my Big Kink Survey, I'm looking at young (19-26) people who picked the top 2 most liberal options (out of a 7-point political spectrum).
This group is 179,000 people.
Of this (young, liberal) group, did men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?
The question as presented in the survey:
*qu... | 2023-09-18T21:10:28 | 2023-09-20T22:34:40 | 2023-09-20T22:34:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o2AX5RShVjiu7cr9hN9H | Will Zherka beat Prime? | PepoTurkey
this boxing even will happen on kick.com/adinross
if Zherka wins the boxing match, i will resolve YES
if Prime wins the boxing match, i will resolve NO
if Zherka doesn't show up, i will resolve NO | 2023-09-18T18:56:16 | 2023-09-18T20:57:57 | 2023-09-18T20:57:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rgfGKt9VQeOzUVDX8jvP | Will Zherka show up to fight Prime? | https://twitter.com/ZherkaOfficial/status/1703949051991904625 | 2023-09-18T18:55:50 | 2023-09-18T20:32:56 | 2023-09-18T20:32:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1EMIUFRLF69HOp9Ybc0n | Will a quarter of Americans morally accept polygamy in 2024, according to Gallup? | Gallup polls Americans every year in May on the moral acceptability of a diverse list of issues. Gallup lists an annual poll on the moral acceptability of polygamy as far back as 2003, when 7% of Americans considered polygamy morally acceptable.
In 2023, polygamy was morally acceptable to 23% of Americans, the same pe... | 2023-09-18T18:47:31 | 2024-07-10T09:04:01 | 2024-07-10T09:04:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vDkppGUwFj8Xiy8mavIH | Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President in 2023? | He can't just say Trump would be good and keep running against him. He has to pull a Chris Christie and endorse him. | 2023-09-18T18:15:15 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:07:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e4VjYjaeLyadDbdaxk29 | Will the war in Ukraine end before May 1st 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-18T18:04:12 | 2024-02-29T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T22:58:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AzEaFls1BD1YZquAuty2 | Will any candidate other than Donald Trump win the majority of delegates in any state in the Republican primary? | To be absolutely clear, majority means more than half. So if a state has 100 delegates, the candidate must win at least 51 to meet the criteria of the question. | 2023-09-18T17:18:13 | 2024-03-05T20:13:19 | 2024-03-05T20:13:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-94aPtMmKxAGzlJP51v4b | Will global approval of the United States decline again in 2023, according to Gallup? | Gallup surveys 140 countries for people's approval of the United States, releasing a report each following year. Gallup's most recent Rating World Leaders report showed a decline from 45% in 2021 to 41% in 2022.
Will Gallups 2024 report show global approval of the United States declined again in 2023?
I am not fully ... | 2023-09-18T16:17:22 | 2024-04-24T09:28:50 | 2024-04-24T09:28:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rtTtY3d3KyoXj6qirPY3 | Will Twitter/X start charging *everyone* to use the platform by the end of March 2024? | There are reports that Elon Musk is considering putting Twitter behind a paywall.
If at any point before the question closes, Twitter begins charging all users (clarification on "all") for a basic thing (be it creating an account, posting, replying, liking, scrolling, etc), then I will resolve this as Yes.
Clarificat... | 2023-09-18T14:30:17 | 2024-03-31T21:00:00 | 2024-04-01T00:01:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mh6y8dFPffyx6xGXrNKu | Will Nate Silver join Manifold in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-18T14:12:00 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:58:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J7WXsRC1qp5gyu4eLq0W | Will the Indian government admit to involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in the next 30 days? | https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/canada/canada-india-sikh-killing.html
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday that “agents of the Indian government” carried out the killing of a Sikh community leader in British Columbia last June.
This question will resolve YES if the Indian government admits to involve... | 2023-09-18T14:09:56 | 2023-10-18T23:59:00 | 2023-10-19T08:23:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NdqdDb5ySrhx9tDG1cB0 | Will X (Twitter) Be a Pay To Use App on or Before 2024? | Question:
Will X Corp (formerly and commonly known as Twitter, Inc.) become a pay to use app on or before 2024?
Critieria For "Yes" At Resolve:
> If the following happens from 18/09/2023 until on or before 23:59:59 01/01/2024 Greenwich Mean Time.
Twitter/X (or its current form) becomes a pay to use app, meaning tha... | 2023-09-18T13:58:12 | 2024-01-02T15:51:52 | 2024-01-02T15:51:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uZjzPY5aJ8IYk2DkFaJt | Will Arsenal finish higher than Tottenham in the 2023-24 Premier League season? | Higher = above.
Finishing at #2 is higher than finishing at #5 | 2023-09-18T13:51:14 | 2024-05-20T14:06:38 | 2024-05-20T14:06:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VTFhzCs29dF6oge2JeX9 | Will the $80 million F-35 stealth fighter jet that disappeared be located by October 1st? | A Marine Corps pilot safely ejected from a F-35 fighter jet Sunday afternoon. The search for his missing aircraft is focused on two lakes north of North Charleston.
This market resolved YES if located at any time before October 1st, 2023.
| 2023-09-18T11:25:01 | 2023-09-19T11:11:21 | 2023-09-19T11:11:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6b8YER6R0gnVVqzX8LKv | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 19th September than it closed on 18th September? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 19th September than it did on Monday 18th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute pri... | 2023-09-18T09:30:36 | 2023-09-19T08:30:00 | 2023-09-19T08:51:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VNES7M8v260D4ucih0zm | Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI through Nov 2023? | Shorter term version of @/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order
Resolution follows the parent
This is only covering the time from now until end of November.
Version for October: @/StrayClimb/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-135d1b50792d | 2023-09-18T09:19:12 | 2023-10-30T16:22:55 | 2023-10-30T16:22:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Lirj3c6ZJ0DIJIF2sJz | Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI through Oct 2023? | Shorter term version of @/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order
Resolution follows the parent
This is only covering the time from now until end of October.
Version for november: @/StrayClimb/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-8923eba995e9 | 2023-09-18T07:43:35 | 2023-10-30T16:22:05 | 2023-10-30T16:22:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rRq1RHMuxGDl7CSf2lDY | Will Trump take the stand in his New York trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-18T07:12:26 | 2024-05-30T17:23:27 | 2024-05-30T17:23:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zAru9jxMDbm4DZqPtvMY | Will Destiny get an adhd med prescription? | Destiny is going to the doctor today to get his ADHD med prescription can he do it or will he fuck up? | 2023-09-18T02:57:23 | 2023-09-19T13:29:20 | 2023-09-19T13:29:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wzR1adHzVea1Ll8aDLh4 | Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023? | At any time following the creation of this market (Sept 18) before the start of 2024. | 2023-09-18T00:16:36 | 2023-10-30T10:34:05 | 2023-10-30T10:34:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oE9GwlQKR271GBWkddbV | Will the $80 million F-35 stealth fighter jet that disappeared be located within 24 hours? | A Marine Corps pilot safely ejected from a F-35 fighter jet Sunday afternoon. The search for his missing aircraft is focused on two lakes north of North Charleston.
This market resolved YES if located within 24 hours
Edit: Resolves 24 hours after posting, at 11:59 PM EST
| 2023-09-17T21:18:47 | 2023-09-18T16:27:26 | 2023-09-18T16:27:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P5zY6knA9P99v3PetEqS | Will a seat on the US Supreme Court become vacant by Election Day 2024? | The vacancy of said potential seat could be accomplished through any sitting Justice retiring, getting impeached, or passing away. If this happens before Election Day 2024 (November 5th, 2024), market will resolve as YES. | 2023-09-17T21:15:21 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T12:37:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s0dFJNwOlXycHgQTBegS | Do more men think about the Roman Empire daily than women? | On a future ACX survey, probably around New Years', I'll ask subjects if they have thought about the Roman Empire in the past 24 hours. This question will resolve to YES if the percent of cis men who answer "yes" is at least 1.5x the percent of cis women who answer "yes".
If for some reason I can't do a survey like th... | 2023-09-17T19:40:02 | 2024-04-01T00:37:43 | 2024-04-01T00:37:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dqzeQZ93y2imevc6TgUR | Will Donald Trump attend the Sept. 27th Republican Primary Debate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-17T15:04:47 | 2023-09-27T20:59:00 | 2023-09-27T21:02:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-776GoiUIojrrdhdQdO6x | Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2024? | Whether Ukraine has "control" of territory is deferred to credible sources (e.g. Critical Threats, BBC).
"any part" means any single location. If Ukrainian forces make a beachhead via naval landing on the Crimean coast and hold it for a week, this would count. If Ukrainian forces control a farmhouse north of Perekop o... | 2023-09-17T14:53:48 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:12:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TIkKWdJOepsOPHNMKfnb | Will a tropical storm make landfall anywhere in the continental US before the end of September? | Watching a potential spin-up low off the SE U.S. Coast. Does it have what it takes to become a Tropical Storm and make landfall as one? Resolves per the NHC.
[image]This map shows Tropical storm strike probability (5-10%) on 20230926 00z init on 20230917 00z via the Tropical cyclone activity (Including genesis) foreca... | 2023-09-17T12:19:23 | 2023-09-23T05:18:54 | 2023-09-23T05:18:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WNUADbCXYLy6bdyJJGWg | Will Waymo announce 4 million driverless miles before the end of September 2023? | Any annoucement including a blog post, company/verifiable employee social media post, or press release/news article is fine. Time ends at 00:00 on October 1, 2023, Pacific Time. Note that this market depends on a public announcement, so it still resolves to NO if 4 million miles are announced in October even if those m... | 2023-09-17T11:21:41 | 2023-10-01T08:49:48 | 2023-10-01T08:49:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5g9mcAU8ag0m5gqm4eEU | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen miss another Q3 appearance for the remaining qualifying sessions? | Resolves NO if Verstappen fails to make it into Q3 at any of the remaining qualifying sessions in the calendar (excluding sprints).
Will resolve NO even if Verstappen makes it into Q3, but is penalised into a lower starting position after making it out of Q2, technically below the Q3 order. | 2023-09-17T09:07:34 | 2023-11-25T07:05:20 | 2023-11-25T07:05:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mNZMnysYCn5fCTXhTUBE | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Alex Albon be out-qualified by his teammate in the remaining qualifying sessions? | Resolves NO if Albon has a higher qualifying position in all the remaining sessions on the calendar.
Where there is any replacement driver for Sargeant who manages to outqualify Albon, the market will still resolve YES. | 2023-09-17T09:04:41 | 2023-11-25T06:59:20 | 2023-11-25T06:59:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZCTU7FE0ff4mq43Jd6qA | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will either Zhou, Bottas, Lawson, Stroll, or Sargeant score points at the Japanese Grand Prix? | If ANY of the listed drivers finish in the top 10 to score points in the race at the Japanese Grand Prix, the market will resolve YES.
If there is any reserve/replacement driver for the listed drivers, the market will still resolve YES if that driver scores. | 2023-09-17T09:00:08 | 2023-09-24T04:46:01 | 2023-09-24T04:46:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W5sSXzDS8i0Gab6Im8bQ | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen win the Japanese Grand Prix with a 15+ second lead? | Resolves YES if Verstappen wins the race at Suzuka, with a gap of 15 seconds or more crossing the finish line to the car in second place.
If Verstappen has a penalty yet to be served in the race, it will be accounted for in the gap for the market. For example, if he had a 5-second penalty (not yet served) and crossed... | 2023-09-17T08:55:52 | 2023-09-24T04:46:18 | 2023-09-24T04:46:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WbCXjehzFhJn3A2fHeAW | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the Japanese GP 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-17T07:13:32 | 2023-09-23T23:37:46 | 2023-09-23T23:37:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-boDVPwLEJe8xSmbFj7Af | Will Starship launch more than twice in 2023? | Current launch count for this year:
2 | 2023-09-17T06:37:08 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:54:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wBKHXVf1l8M7CgJXrdLB | Will the S&P 500 close above 4,450 on Sep. 22, 2023? | No additional description provided. | 2023-09-16T21:39:53 | 2023-09-22T09:00:00 | 2023-09-22T13:49:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hbqcnmQMODw0ldJ81NiR | Will Trump be Assassinated Before 2025? | Tucker Carlson recently claimed we are speeding towards the assassination of Donald Trump.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2023/09/02/tucker-carlsons-trump-assassination-conspiracy-theory-explained-where-it-started-who-is-pushing-it/amp/
Resolves yes if Trump dies and in my judgment it was a politically... | 2023-09-16T20:33:23 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T06:21:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L6Tj0NcyMcuqWjANvt2C | Will Nigel become a major hurricane? | Resolves YES if Nigel is ever designated a Category 3 hurricane or stronger by the NHC. | 2023-09-16T19:43:11 | 2023-09-22T08:35:52 | 2023-09-22T08:35:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BomFJSkCArYLJTc4HJKL | Will Bayern Munich beat Manchester United during regular time on Wed, Sep 20, 2023? - UEFA Champions League | ⚽ Bayern Munich vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Wednesday, September 20, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Bayern Munich has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the ... | 2023-09-16T17:26:30 | 2023-09-20T14:00:53 | 2023-09-20T14:00:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cpdiq6L659fxlfd2xUu3 | Will Real Madrid beat Union Berlin during regular time on Wed, Sep 20, 2023? - UEFA Champions League | ⚽ Real Madrid vs Union Berlin
📅 Date: Wednesday, September 20, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:45
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Real Madrid has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of re... | 2023-09-16T17:26:28 | 2023-09-20T11:45:42 | 2023-09-20T11:45:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yZE19AotmhsBGIas7yJB | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any postseason game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Season:
@/jks/-2024-nfl-will-any-week-1-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-18-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:55:35 | 2024-02-11T20:30:00 | 2024-02-11T20:30:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N9V3T00gLNMJ6TLKnQF4 | Will the Straw Hats leave Egghead by chapter 1100? | Resolves YES when the straw hats leave Egghead Island. Resolves no if chapter 1100 passes and the crew is still in Egghead. | 2023-09-16T14:54:13 | 2023-11-29T09:48:38 | 2023-11-29T09:48:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hzXOLuWZoQ8qG52nUouB | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 18 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-postseason-game
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-17-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:29:28 | 2024-01-07T20:59:00 | 2024-01-08T08:47:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m1pEhLa6mlm2pmwPQV1q | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 15 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-16-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-14-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:27:28 | 2023-12-14T21:15:57 | 2023-12-14T21:15:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gyyimZg2s4rN1SmyCDO3 | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 12 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-13-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-11-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:26:38 | 2023-11-27T14:56:51 | 2023-11-27T14:56:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oJHkirVgBlMmo9YJ8HKT | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 11 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-12-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-10-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:26:22 | 2023-11-20T20:59:00 | 2023-11-20T21:34:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v9dkzfrW6iGgudKNtpzG | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 10 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-11-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-9-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:26:08 | 2023-11-13T20:59:00 | 2023-11-13T21:06:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cL1h5cDV6dfVtiuFte8d | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 7 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-8-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-6-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:23:27 | 2023-10-23T20:44:35 | 2023-10-23T20:44:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fW9VEhmaZkRpXtPhzsSe | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 6 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-7-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-5-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:23:13 | 2023-10-16T20:59:00 | 2023-10-16T21:54:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6jeiTwk9JNXRxTxQ1fFp | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 5 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-6-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-4-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:22:44 | 2023-10-09T20:59:00 | 2023-10-09T21:12:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bsvqY9Kidd5KcDV5KsuV | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 4 game end in Scorigami? | Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-5-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-3-game-end | 2023-09-16T14:22:30 | 2023-10-02T20:53:55 | 2023-10-02T20:53:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PAYQVLTDdesWuFaOgvWD | Will Varda Space Industries be able to land their capsule before the end of 2023? | Varda Space Industries is a private spaceflight company focused on in-orbit manufacturing. On September 6th, their W series capsule currently in orbit was denied permission to land at Utah Test and Training Range by the FAA. | 2023-09-16T08:42:09 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-02T04:43:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8xdnoZhVMpA6Soio6jTV | Will New Shepard return to flight before the end of December 2023? | According to this Ars Technica article, Blue Origin is planning an uncrewed flight of the New Shepard suborbital rocket in October, over a year after an anomaly destroyed a booster in flight.
This market gives them all the way until the end of the year.
Resolves YES if a New Shepard rocket launches to at least 1km al... | 2023-09-16T06:37:26 | 2023-12-19T13:23:03 | 2023-12-19T13:23:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7WHL0yknkwKYv1CPk2fZ | Will Nintendo announce a successor to their Switch console before June 1, 2024? | This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch.
This includes a 'pro' version that can be fully backwards compatible but can play games that switch can't or with increased hardware capabilities.
The market resolves to NO if a new re... | 2023-09-16T02:10:28 | 2024-06-01T05:00:35 | 2024-06-01T05:00:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qndOqU74nW7UDVNL1vDl | Will Ramzan Kadyrov stay alive through 2023? | Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov (born 5 October 1976) is a Russian politician and current Head of the Chechen Republic. He was formerly affiliated to the Chechen independence movement, through his father who was the separatist-appointed mufti of Chechnya. He is a colonel general in the Russian military.
[image] | 2023-09-16T01:11:56 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:10:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zpfit2HkGYRFLJs4tMi9 | Will Ramzan Kadyrov still be head of Chechnya on Jan 1, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-16T00:36:30 | 2024-01-01T05:41:24 | 2024-01-01T05:41:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KxY6O8ZSeitlOkukmyJL | Will Barbie win best picture in the 2024 Oscars? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-16T00:33:22 | 2024-03-10T20:28:13 | 2024-03-10T20:28:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eP39ACGvcxo9oDNsMwUz | Will Oppenheimer win best picture 2024? | This question will resolve yes if Oppenheimer wins best picture at the 2024 oscars. | 2023-09-16T00:31:55 | 2024-03-10T21:31:32 | 2024-03-10T21:31:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fD7XRvrK14gCeLfdlUAk | Will we ever cure cancer? | Will we ever 'cure' cancer? As in, sure we can get cancer, but we reduce the mortality rate to 0% given a certain type of treatment, or 'cure'. (Not everyone has to have access to that cure).
Since this will not (likely) happen in our lifetime, resolves to the majority (YES if % > 50, No otherwise) | 2023-09-15T21:44:10 | 2023-09-30T23:59:00 | 2023-10-03T01:07:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jYD9IkT7g2zQuLO6lWBU | Will Destiny attend Camp Knut before August 2024 | https://campknut.gg/
Knut asked Destiny on stream today (15.09.2023) if he would join Camp Knut Kick edition if one was to be organized.
Resolves NO is one does not get organized before August 2024 or if Destiny isn't in it. He also has to be a competitor and not give up/DQL for a YES resolution. | 2023-09-15T18:39:07 | 2024-08-01T13:59:00 | 2024-08-01T19:01:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XR9sEYZKXU6aRyFTzljW | Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2024 than in 2023, according to Gallup? | Gallup polls Americans every year in May on the moral acceptability of a diverse list of issues. Gallup lists an annual poll on the moral acceptability of abortion as far back as 2001, when 42% considered abortion morally acceptable. In 2022, for the first time since Gallup began polling this question, abortion was mor... | 2023-09-15T16:08:03 | 2024-07-10T09:02:16 | 2024-07-10T09:02:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nSoKNm6xvgZbFPZL2oGq | Will ChatGPT5 be released by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-15T15:20:43 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-26T10:58:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mVG3aZE1VGvdMkb9Lg4j | Will Donald Trump be jailed for violating a gag order in 2023? | I will not bet in this market.
Some clarification points from the comment section:
If he is ordered to go to jail but for whatever reason does not actually go to jail (dies on the way, flees custody, etc.), this will not resolve Yes unless he is actually jailed.
There is still considerable room for interpretation of... | 2023-09-15T14:54:01 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2023-12-31T21:02:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CgFtpkffTemxL8zE6YMF | Will Bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market be 50% or higher at EOY 2023? | Historic Bitcoin dominance can be viewed here, which will also be oracle for the market's resolution.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/
[link preview] | 2023-09-15T14:26:18 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:54:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3bSi2EvmXmopwZztLkJ6 | Will Germany introduce a carbon dividend/"Klimageld" before the next federal election? | The current german gouvernment has agreed in its coalition agreement to introduce a "Klimageld" to compensate the social burden of carbon fees. Similar systems already exist in Austria and Switzerland.
The question resolves "yes" if and when a law is passed to distribute an equal-ish amount of money per person among t... | 2023-09-15T12:45:01 | 2025-02-23T14:59:00 | 2025-02-28T03:31:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M91cpYAqLE2Xe3cHi7O2 | Will Messi win Ballon d'Or? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or for 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is France Football’s website: https://www.francefootball.fr/ballon-d-or/palmares/, however live footage of the ceremony and a consensus of credible... | 2023-09-15T12:44:32 | 2023-10-30T21:59:00 | 2023-10-31T07:05:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2StLG3ddiAxIIZY5BnJT | Will Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov die before the end of 2023? | Must be confirmed by a trusted source. | 2023-09-15T11:39:48 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:03:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vSLQuUU6V9h1wfrpsp52 | Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov dies this year? | According to some news outlets, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is reportedly in a coma due to a serious illness.
This market will resolve as YES if Kadyrov dies before 2024, regardless of the cause of death. | 2023-09-15T11:22:59 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:49:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oqUqt3Ac1H6t371fS1BZ | Will UAW's demand for a 40% hourly pay increase be met by any of the Detroit automakers by October 31? | Resolution Source: Official announcements from UAW or the Detroit automakers, or major news outlets reporting on the negotiations.
Expiry: October 31, 2023, 12:00 p.m. ET. | 2023-09-15T11:19:02 | 2023-09-22T20:59:00 | 2023-11-14T06:05:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-28h0RFlLj7qi3XuRxq5j | Will Google's Gemini model destroy the world? | Google's Gemini model is planned to be released soon. AI models are predicted to possibly wipe out humanity. This question asked, will Google's Gemini model wipe out humanity. It resolves positive if humanity is destroyed by Google Gemini (directly or indirectly) within 1 year of its release, and negative otherwise. | 2023-09-15T11:13:54 | 2025-02-07T20:59:00 | 2025-02-28T17:47:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-faohHvS1Um9zKhgd3Dvf | Will China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu make a public appearance or statement by October 15, 2023? | "A public appearance is defined as any event, meeting, or function where Li Shangfu is seen and is reported by major news outlets."
"A statement is defined as any official communication, interview, or announcement made by or on behalf of Li Shangfu."
"Social media posts, rumors, or unofficial sources will not be cons... | 2023-09-15T11:00:04 | 2023-10-15T20:59:00 | 2023-10-16T12:04:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PefPJowCAcANchRHqIg3 | Will Justin Fields be the starting QB for the Chicago Bears in 2024, Week 1? | Resolves to YES if Justin Fields starts the Bears' first game of the 2024 season. | 2023-09-15T10:39:48 | 2024-09-17T23:33:02 | 2024-09-17T23:33:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FeGJjPYUIerTozruup5a | Will Kizaru use a new technique in chapter 1093? | Kizaru has to use a new named technique in chapter 1093 for this to resolve YES. The move MUST involve the Pika-Pika No Mi in some way to count. Will resolve once english translated raws are out and not spoilers | 2023-09-15T10:36:50 | 2023-09-21T09:38:27 | 2023-09-21T19:16:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DC6gwZq0W6YdVtdbZ7Ft | Is Ramzan Kadyrov alive at the end of 2023? | There’s other markets with the same question so I’ll collect them here to ease your arbitraging
https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ramzan-kadyrov-stay-alive-thro?r=QW50dGlSYXNpbmVu
https://manifold.markets/AviS/will-chechen-leader-ramzan-kadyrov?r=QW50dGlSYXNpbmVu
https://manifold.markets/BokiLee/will-chechen-l... | 2023-09-15T10:25:22 | 2024-01-01T00:28:40 | 2024-01-01T00:28:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qKR5Qb4FxSd90Qo1rvfv | Will "A Haunting in Venice" gross >$14M on opening weekend? | This is a market on how much 'A Haunting in Venice' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22687790/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 15 - September 17) are final (i.e. not stu... | 2023-09-15T09:39:52 | 2023-09-24T21:59:00 | 2023-09-25T09:36:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NU8EzYUZEhMgUbHV0ZYJ | Will Insomniac's Spider Man 2 score 90 or higher on Metacritic? | Will the PlayStation exclusive get 90 or higher on metacritic one week after launch?
[image] | 2023-09-15T09:07:47 | 2023-10-27T14:59:00 | 2023-10-28T23:33:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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