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mani-ggKEjj3eCkzAHjSypgXA
|
Will Brent Crude Oil exceed 100$ at least once before Oct 1?
|
This market will resolve to Yes as long as it exceeds it at least once during anytime the market is open. It does need to have it exceeded only at open or close.
It should happen in the month of September 2023.
I will only rely on the following link: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BZW00:NYMEX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiCgcGowrmBAxVl1zgGHcpvBLoQ3ecFegQIDhAb
[link preview]
|
2023-09-20T08:41:45
|
2023-09-30T08:59:00
|
2023-09-30T18:40:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vpYPO1LBQwVcTngsHWdV
|
Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?
|
Resolves the same way as %Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?, unless that one resolves N/A or something else weird occurs, in which case this market resolves according to the actual survey data as released by Aella.
|
2023-09-20T08:26:27
|
2023-09-20T22:35:22
|
2023-09-20T22:35:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gTOKWu1Jt7VPUT6ghBoT
|
Will the European Central Bank raise the interest rates until the end of 2023?
|
The necessary monetary policy response to return inflation to its 2% target has been unprecedented in the history of the Eurosystem. The key ECB interest rates started to increase in July 2022, and have increased by 425 basis points since then.
Resolved NO: https://www.bde.es/wbe/en/noticias-eventos/actualidad-bce/decisiones-politica-monetaria/el-bce-los-tipos-de-interes-en-diciembre.html
|
2023-09-20T07:47:51
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T07:14:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3iJYJGLk04xF8ryDRGX4
|
Will Elon Musk retain the position of CEO (or ‘Technoking’) of Tesla AND SpaceX until January 1, 2025?
|
Context: In 2018, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Elon Musk for falsely tweeting that he had secured funding for a private takeover of Tesla. To settle the case, Musk stepped down as the chairman of Tesla and paid a $20 million fine.
Federal prosecutors are currently probing whether Tesla’s company resources were used to supply personal benefits to CEO Elon Musk as early as 2017... according to people familiar with the investigation who also said prosecutors have made allusions to the involvement of a grand jury—indicating potential criminal charges, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has stated that the Senate should investigate Elon Musk's alleged role in thwarting a Ukrainian drone from attacking Russia's naval fleet last year in the Black Sea.
Additionally, Musk is at the center of numerous other controversies and lawsuits, including surrounding his management of X, previously known as Twitter.
Will Elon Musk remain as CEO (or Technoking) of Tesla and of SpaceX until January 1, 2025?
RESOLUTION: this question resolves YES if Musk remains as CEO (or the top executive level position regardless of the nominal title such as Technoking) of BOTH Tesla AND SpaceX until January 1, 2025. This question resolves NO if Musk is no longer CEO (or no longer holds the top executive level position) of EITHER Tesla OR SpaceX prior to January 1, 2025.
DISCLAIMER: I believe there is a decent chance Musk may not remain as CEO of either Tesla or SpaceX by the end of 2024 and thus will likely place a bet on this being the outcome, but will certainly resolve this question fairly.
|
2023-09-20T06:20:05
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T14:05:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qpmd6PARgocmESV0q8RA
|
Will any LLM released by EOY 2024 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
|
As per Anthropic's scaling policy here: https://www.anthropic.com/index/anthropics-responsible-scaling-policy
ASL-3 is defined as: "ASL-3 refers to systems that substantially increase the risk of catastrophic misuse compared to non-AI baselines (e.g. search engines or textbooks) OR that show low-level autonomous capabilities."
Anthropic commits to not deploying ASL-3 models 'if they show any meaningful catastrophic misuse risk under adversarial testing by world-class red-teamers (this is in contrast to merely a commitment to perform red-teaming).'
Resolves to YES if in my best judgment this happened. I will put large weight on Anthropic's statements on this question, and on general consensus including polls, but will go my own way if I feel sufficiently strongly about it.
Resolves to NO if in my best judgment this does not happen.
(Resolves to a percentage if there is genuine uncertainty but the bar for doing this is high and I find this highly unlikely.)
If a model is created but not released to at least a substantial outside beta testing group by the deadline, it does not count.
I interpret for now 'low-level autonomous capabilities' as something that would tempt reasonable people to give the model real-world actual-stakes autonomous tasks for mundane utility purposes, with the expectation this was economically wise, or the ability to otherwise make money on its own, or similar. If Anthropic clarifies I will use their definition.
No currently released system currently counts, including GPT-4, Claude-2 and Llama-2, barring very unexpected advancements in autonomous capability scaffolding on top of them, but in theory that could also do it.
I reserve the right to modify the resolution details for clarity and intent.
|
2023-09-20T04:53:02
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:40:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lnTMErzvaTKwMeEmW1Ux
|
Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 18th October be below 6%?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 18th October.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March 2023 - 10.4%
April 2023 - 10.1%
May 2023 - 8.7%
June 2023 - 8.7%
July 2023 - 7.9%
August 2023 - 6.8%
September 2023 - 6.7%
October 2023 - TBC
(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 6.0%)
|
2023-09-19T23:12:37
|
2023-10-17T23:43:23
|
2023-10-17T23:43:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LPBk3sSdbzGuhRC7GJNu
|
Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 18th October be below 7%?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 18th October.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March 2023 - 10.4%
April 2023 - 10.1%
May 2023 - 8.7%
June 2023 - 8.7%
July 2023 - 7.9%
August 2023 - 6.8%
September 2023 - 6.7%
October 2023 - TBC
(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 7.0%)
|
2023-09-19T23:12:20
|
2023-10-17T23:46:24
|
2023-10-17T23:46:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tobPy3lqRJnICz56MkUp
|
Will the US Government condemn India for its alleged involvement in the killing of Sikh separatist leader?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-19T22:14:47
|
2023-11-20T00:13:17
|
2023-11-20T00:13:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dgOWHR829tjRWoAr6uoE
|
Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President by Feb 20th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, makes a direct and explicit public statement endorsing Donald Trump for the United States Presidential election before 11:59 PM ET on Feb 20, 2023. The endorsement must be a distinct declaration of support for Trump's Presidential candidacy expressed by DeSantis himself.
Indirect statements of support, such as retweets, shares of other people's endorsements, or general expressions of admiration, will not count as endorsements. The endorsement can be communicated through various mediums, including speeches, press releases, interviews, or posts on verified social media accounts belonging to DeSantis.
The market will resolve immediately if the endorsement happens before the resolution date. If no such endorsement is made by the stated date, the market will resolve to "No".
|
2023-09-19T17:02:58
|
2024-01-21T14:39:09
|
2024-01-21T14:39:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OMCKW4f0RJZnea21tpqa
|
Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President by Jan 20th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, makes a direct and explicit public statement endorsing Donald Trump for the United States Presidential election before 11:59 PM ET on Jan 20, 2023. The endorsement must be a distinct declaration of support for Trump's Presidential candidacy expressed by DeSantis himself.
Indirect statements of support, such as retweets, shares of other people's endorsements, or general expressions of admiration, will not count as endorsements. The endorsement can be communicated through various mediums, including speeches, press releases, interviews, or posts on verified social media accounts belonging to DeSantis.
The market will resolve immediately if the endorsement happens before the resolution date. If no such endorsement is made by the stated date, the market will resolve to "No".
|
2023-09-19T17:02:43
|
2024-01-21T10:38:13
|
2024-01-21T10:38:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-818bo8mdZu77jnGo6RHl
|
Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President in 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida, makes a direct and explicit public statement endorsing Donald Trump for the United States Presidential election before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. The endorsement must be a distinct declaration of support for Trump's Presidential candidacy expressed by DeSantis himself.
Indirect statements of support, such as retweets, shares of other people's endorsements, or general expressions of admiration, will not count as endorsements. The endorsement can be communicated through various mediums, including speeches, press releases, interviews, or posts on verified social media accounts belonging to DeSantis.
The market will resolve immediately if the endorsement happens before the resolution date. If no such endorsement is made by the stated date, the market will resolve to "No".
|
2023-09-19T17:01:59
|
2023-12-30T15:58:11
|
2023-12-30T15:58:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mvnfH6kSwCmkEwMGI6pz
|
Will the US see a large-scale riot by the end of 2024?
|
For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:
At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.
Such events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the 1992 LA riots would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.
Resolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.
|
2023-09-19T13:19:26
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T17:08:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V3dcyuvT88AGxe1dsdcM
|
Will Hunter Biden face new criminal charges before November 1?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if new criminal charges are filed against Hunter Biden before November 1, 2023, 12:00 AM ET. A "new criminal charge" is defined as a charge that has not been formally filed against him before September 18, 2023. If no new charges are filed by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No".
|
2023-09-19T13:13:19
|
2023-11-01T19:54:05
|
2023-11-01T19:54:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5Lat9SXQzkBilAyZVONr
|
Will Trump be disqualified from California's primary ballot?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially confirmed by the California Secretary of State's Office that Donald Trump has been legally disqualified from being on California's March 2024 primary ballot. Official confirmation may be in the form of a public announcement, press release, or an update on the Secretary of State's official website. In case of such an occurrence before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately to "Yes".
If no such official confirmation is made by the expiry date or if Trump remains listed on the primary ballot, the market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "disqualification" refers specifically to a legal ruling or action taken by the state of California that prevents Trump from being listed on the primary ballot. Voluntary withdrawals or other forms of removal are not considered disqualification.
|
2023-09-19T13:12:37
|
2023-12-30T14:23:17
|
2023-12-30T14:23:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-olVTkld7kQSdzK1KAlHL
|
Will the new LLM released by Meta be open-source?
|
Meta has acquired enough GPUs and is preparing to train a model that rivals GPT-4 in early next year. The question is whether it would be open-source or closed-source.
Resolves YES if it's open-source.
Resolves NO if it's closed-source.
Resolves N/A if Meta does not release a new LLM in 2024...
|
2023-09-19T12:42:33
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-03-07T17:59:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pn5PmePjeoZSaGV3gXlP
|
Will Trump receive a gag order by October 15?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ex-president of the United States Donald J. Trump becomes the subject of a gag order by any Federal or State court in the US between September 18 and October 15, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "gag order" is broadly defined as a legally binding court order prohibiting Trump from discussing, commenting on, or disseminating information related to a specific legal case or investigation. The gag order must be issued by a federal or state court within the United States.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US courts/government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used
|
2023-09-19T12:36:50
|
2023-10-03T16:01:17
|
2023-10-03T16:01:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U3qCW4C0nipjZHR5NynW
|
Will Trudeau take back his accusation that India is responsible for Singh's assassination before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-19T11:10:20
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:58:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ruzlct60WpVvKknEgrzb
|
Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?
|
South Africa is holding a general election in 2024. The African National Congress (ANC) has won a majority of the vote in every election since 1994. However, since 2020, some opinion polls have the ANC receiving less than 50% support.
Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in South Africa's 2024 election?
For easy reference, here are the shares of the vote for the ANC from Wikipedia:
1994: 62.65%
1999: 66.35%
2004: 69.69%
2009: 65.90%
2014: 62.15%
2019: 57.50%
|
2023-09-19T10:22:41
|
2024-06-02T09:23:45
|
2024-06-02T09:23:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1MN2KmpZ3a1gjCLNkxvE
|
Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2024
|
Lost for any reason. Within 2024 calendar year.
Counts
Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary
Does not count
Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other
|
2023-09-19T08:21:13
|
2024-05-30T09:46:56
|
2024-05-30T09:46:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kJIHOHpC6lrxkUY5LGzE
|
Will Inter Miami beat New York City FC? ⚽ MLS
|
Inter Miami wins = yes / NYC wins or draws = no
|
2023-09-19T07:26:27
|
2023-09-30T20:03:13
|
2023-09-30T20:03:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MljxwfdZv9d5VBVWv0GR
|
Will the Chicago Bears maul the Kansas City Chiefs?
|
YES if Bears win. NO if Chiefs win or tie.
|
2023-09-19T06:56:02
|
2023-09-24T20:28:05
|
2023-09-24T20:28:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QNlQ0njBcpty98BDiCPR
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
|
YES if Eagles win. NO if Buccaneers win or tie.
|
2023-09-19T06:54:31
|
2023-09-25T19:13:22
|
2023-09-25T19:13:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XXJ2KJDOFEt1PSxft2DF
|
Will Xi and Putin meet in person in October 2023?
|
[link preview]See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/VAfc3f/will-putin-and-xi-conduct-an-in-per)
|
2023-09-19T06:09:47
|
2023-10-17T04:47:51
|
2023-10-17T04:47:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UU7WqVkSOQio7UbUE3Y1
|
Will Elm programming language have a new official release before the end of 2024?
|
Most recent release was on Oct 21, 2019: https://github.com/elm/compiler/releases/tag/0.19.1
Related links:
https://old.reddit.com/r/elm/comments/y6hgwx/is_elm_still_being_developed/
https://github.com/elm/compiler/issues/2308#issuecomment-1691960135
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36274921
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/Vexdf-Rd-AE?si=I15ih60XsvvIJHOi)
|
2023-09-19T04:44:36
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-04T16:02:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E3qDeBRJbcWXSn8xr0c7
|
Will the Labour Party win a landslide victory in the next UK general election? [100 seat majority]
|
Definition
The longstanding definition of a landslide victory in the UK is securing a majority of at least than 100 seats in Parliament. While newspapers etc have sometimes used the term more loosely, for the purposes of this question the 100 seat majority will remain the defining point.
Resolution
The date of the election is not currently known. The latest date allowed by law is 28th January 2025, but as this would result in the current government sitting for more than 5 years (therefore breaking longstanding conventions) and the election period running over the Christmas holidays, it is widely expected to take place no later than November 2024.
Once the actual election date is known, the question will be set to close at the time the polls close on election day. Resolution will follow once enough results have been released to be sure whether the criteria were reached. This is most likely to be the following day.
My actions
I will kick off betting on this question with a small bet of my own and may change / increase this bet going forwards, but will keep my bets small relative to the size of the market.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/07/labour-landslide-election-victory-poll-keir-starmer-rishi-sunak-conservatives-constituency-boundaries
[link preview]
|
2023-09-18T23:03:50
|
2024-07-03T15:59:00
|
2024-07-07T23:42:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LB07e5e58ArYaTxs35Hm
|
Will crude oil crude prices raise to $100 a barrel in 2023?
|
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-september-19
|
2023-09-18T21:14:43
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:54:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB
|
Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?
|
In my Big Kink Survey, I'm looking at young (19-26) people who picked the top 2 most liberal options (out of a 7-point political spectrum).
This group is 179,000 people.
Of this (young, liberal) group, did men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?
The question as presented in the survey:
*question: From the ages of 0-14, how often were you spanked as a form of discipline?
*tip: Spanking means striking the buttocks, with a hand or an implement such as a shoe or belt
Never
Rarely
Sometimes
Often
Very regularly
(I selected which gender to ask about - like, vs 'women spanked more often than men' by flipping a coin)
|
2023-09-18T21:10:28
|
2023-09-20T22:34:40
|
2023-09-20T22:34:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o2AX5RShVjiu7cr9hN9H
|
Will Zherka beat Prime?
|
PepoTurkey
this boxing even will happen on kick.com/adinross
if Zherka wins the boxing match, i will resolve YES
if Prime wins the boxing match, i will resolve NO
if Zherka doesn't show up, i will resolve NO
|
2023-09-18T18:56:16
|
2023-09-18T20:57:57
|
2023-09-18T20:57:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rgfGKt9VQeOzUVDX8jvP
|
Will Zherka show up to fight Prime?
|
https://twitter.com/ZherkaOfficial/status/1703949051991904625
|
2023-09-18T18:55:50
|
2023-09-18T20:32:56
|
2023-09-18T20:32:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1EMIUFRLF69HOp9Ybc0n
|
Will a quarter of Americans morally accept polygamy in 2024, according to Gallup?
|
Gallup polls Americans every year in May on the moral acceptability of a diverse list of issues. Gallup lists an annual poll on the moral acceptability of polygamy as far back as 2003, when 7% of Americans considered polygamy morally acceptable.
In 2023, polygamy was morally acceptable to 23% of Americans, the same percent as it was in 2022, both the highest it has ever been since polling began.
Will Gallup polling show 25% or more of Americans consider polygamy morally acceptable in 2024?
|
2023-09-18T18:47:31
|
2024-07-10T09:04:01
|
2024-07-10T09:04:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vDkppGUwFj8Xiy8mavIH
|
Will Ron DeSantis endorse Trump for President in 2023?
|
He can't just say Trump would be good and keep running against him. He has to pull a Chris Christie and endorse him.
|
2023-09-18T18:15:15
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T07:07:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e4VjYjaeLyadDbdaxk29
|
Will the war in Ukraine end before May 1st 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-18T18:04:12
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2025-02-01T22:58:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AzEaFls1BD1YZquAuty2
|
Will any candidate other than Donald Trump win the majority of delegates in any state in the Republican primary?
|
To be absolutely clear, majority means more than half. So if a state has 100 delegates, the candidate must win at least 51 to meet the criteria of the question.
|
2023-09-18T17:18:13
|
2024-03-05T20:13:19
|
2024-03-05T20:13:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-94aPtMmKxAGzlJP51v4b
|
Will global approval of the United States decline again in 2023, according to Gallup?
|
Gallup surveys 140 countries for people's approval of the United States, releasing a report each following year. Gallup's most recent Rating World Leaders report showed a decline from 45% in 2021 to 41% in 2022.
Will Gallups 2024 report show global approval of the United States declined again in 2023?
I am not fully sure when the next report publishes, but the previous one came out in April 2023, so I'll check late that month.
|
2023-09-18T16:17:22
|
2024-04-24T09:28:50
|
2024-04-24T09:28:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rtTtY3d3KyoXj6qirPY3
|
Will Twitter/X start charging *everyone* to use the platform by the end of March 2024?
|
There are reports that Elon Musk is considering putting Twitter behind a paywall.
If at any point before the question closes, Twitter begins charging all users (clarification on "all") for a basic thing (be it creating an account, posting, replying, liking, scrolling, etc), then I will resolve this as Yes.
Clarification of the criteria. If there is anything you are unsure about, please ask in the comments, and then I will answer you and add it here.
Things considered basic (if all users have to pay to do one of these things at any time before the close date, the market resolves YES):
ability to scroll through the home timeline for at least 30 minutes a day
following (this is the ability to follow multiple accounts. If Twitter limits the amount of accounts a free user can follow, then that won't count)
liking
posting (the ability to post at least some text, image, and video)
replying
retweeting
quote tweeting
Things NOT considered basic:
unlimited scrolling/data usage
bookmarking
write longer posts
post longer and/or higher-quality video
undo button
communities stuff
lists stuff
spaces stuff
Relevant News
https://twitter.com/DaveLeeBBG/status/1703814998626111785
https://fortune.com/2023/10/17/twitter-x-charging-new-users-1-dollar-year-to-tweet/
|
2023-09-18T14:30:17
|
2024-03-31T21:00:00
|
2024-04-01T00:01:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mh6y8dFPffyx6xGXrNKu
|
Will Nate Silver join Manifold in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-18T14:12:00
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:58:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J7WXsRC1qp5gyu4eLq0W
|
Will the Indian government admit to involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in the next 30 days?
|
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/canada/canada-india-sikh-killing.html
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday that “agents of the Indian government” carried out the killing of a Sikh community leader in British Columbia last June.
This question will resolve YES if the Indian government admits to involvement in the killing of Hardeep Sing Nijjar.
Here is some (but not all) of the criteria that would count as involvement:
Knowingly funding or providing resources
The perpetrators being members of the government
Directly asking for the murder to occurr
Some things that would not count:
Knowledge, but no participation in, of the plot
Unknowingly funding or providing resources.
The Indian government must directly admit their involvement. This statement would have to come from a person or body credibly speaking on behalf of the Indian government. A whistleblower or rogue entity whose claims are denied or ignored would not count.
I will not bet in this market.
See also: @/DanMan314/was-the-indian-government-involved
|
2023-09-18T14:09:56
|
2023-10-18T23:59:00
|
2023-10-19T08:23:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NdqdDb5ySrhx9tDG1cB0
|
Will X (Twitter) Be a Pay To Use App on or Before 2024?
|
Question:
Will X Corp (formerly and commonly known as Twitter, Inc.) become a pay to use app on or before 2024?
Critieria For "Yes" At Resolve:
> If the following happens from 18/09/2023 until on or before 23:59:59 01/01/2024 Greenwich Mean Time.
Twitter/X (or its current form) becomes a pay to use app, meaning that everyone has to pay some sort of fee using some sort of currency in order to access the basic/main features of Twitter/X, examples could include but not limited to: viewing free (non-subscriber) tweets, to tweet (up to 280 characters I think) and or to retweet (quote/repost) etc.
Critieria For "No" At Resolve:
> If the following happens from 18/09/2023 until on or before 23:59:59 01/01/2024 Greenwich Mean Time.
Twitter/X (or its current form) doesn't become a pay to use app, meaning that everyone doesn't have to pay any sort of fee in order to access the basic/main features of Twitter/X, examples could include but not limited to: viewing free (non-subscriber) tweets, to tweet (up to 280 characters I think) and or to retweet (quote/repost) etc.
Additional Notes:
Because of this question's somewhat vague and broad description, I will have to use some of my judgements in resolving this question if anything does change regarding the fee/free-to-use status of Twitter/X, as an avid Twitter user, I think I can decide using a fairly objective standpoint.
Due Diligence:
"Elon Musk is reportedly considering the idea of charging everyone to use Twitter/X" - @Dexerto on X
URL: https://x.com/Dexerto/status/1703852502888644676?s=20
Community Notes from the same post: "The post refers to a recent interview with the PM of Israel, where Elon stated they will introduce "lower tier pricing" for premium. There is no mention of charging everyone to use X." 34:40 of
URL: https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1703806204894498966
Fairness/Neutrality Disclaimer:
For the minimisation of conflict of interests, the creator of this question (@UnlockedCPU) will not be trading nor be holding any positions on this specific question for as long as it remains unresolved.
Any other questions please use the comments section.
|
2023-09-18T13:58:12
|
2024-01-02T15:51:52
|
2024-01-02T15:51:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uZjzPY5aJ8IYk2DkFaJt
|
Will Arsenal finish higher than Tottenham in the 2023-24 Premier League season?
|
Higher = above.
Finishing at #2 is higher than finishing at #5
|
2023-09-18T13:51:14
|
2024-05-20T14:06:38
|
2024-05-20T14:06:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VTFhzCs29dF6oge2JeX9
|
Will the $80 million F-35 stealth fighter jet that disappeared be located by October 1st?
|
A Marine Corps pilot safely ejected from a F-35 fighter jet Sunday afternoon. The search for his missing aircraft is focused on two lakes north of North Charleston.
This market resolved YES if located at any time before October 1st, 2023.
|
2023-09-18T11:25:01
|
2023-09-19T11:11:21
|
2023-09-19T11:11:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6b8YER6R0gnVVqzX8LKv
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 19th September than it closed on 18th September?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 19th September than it did on Monday 18th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-09-18T09:30:36
|
2023-09-19T08:30:00
|
2023-09-19T08:51:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VNES7M8v260D4ucih0zm
|
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI through Nov 2023?
|
Shorter term version of @/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order
Resolution follows the parent
This is only covering the time from now until end of November.
Version for October: @/StrayClimb/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-135d1b50792d
|
2023-09-18T09:19:12
|
2023-10-30T16:22:55
|
2023-10-30T16:22:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Lirj3c6ZJ0DIJIF2sJz
|
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI through Oct 2023?
|
Shorter term version of @/SG/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order
Resolution follows the parent
This is only covering the time from now until end of October.
Version for november: @/StrayClimb/will-biden-sign-an-executive-order-8923eba995e9
|
2023-09-18T07:43:35
|
2023-10-30T16:22:05
|
2023-10-30T16:22:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rRq1RHMuxGDl7CSf2lDY
|
Will Trump take the stand in his New York trial?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-18T07:12:26
|
2024-05-30T17:23:27
|
2024-05-30T17:23:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zAru9jxMDbm4DZqPtvMY
|
Will Destiny get an adhd med prescription?
|
Destiny is going to the doctor today to get his ADHD med prescription can he do it or will he fuck up?
|
2023-09-18T02:57:23
|
2023-09-19T13:29:20
|
2023-09-19T13:29:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wzR1adHzVea1Ll8aDLh4
|
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
|
At any time following the creation of this market (Sept 18) before the start of 2024.
|
2023-09-18T00:16:36
|
2023-10-30T10:34:05
|
2023-10-30T10:34:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oE9GwlQKR271GBWkddbV
|
Will the $80 million F-35 stealth fighter jet that disappeared be located within 24 hours?
|
A Marine Corps pilot safely ejected from a F-35 fighter jet Sunday afternoon. The search for his missing aircraft is focused on two lakes north of North Charleston.
This market resolved YES if located within 24 hours
Edit: Resolves 24 hours after posting, at 11:59 PM EST
|
2023-09-17T21:18:47
|
2023-09-18T16:27:26
|
2023-09-18T16:27:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P5zY6knA9P99v3PetEqS
|
Will a seat on the US Supreme Court become vacant by Election Day 2024?
|
The vacancy of said potential seat could be accomplished through any sitting Justice retiring, getting impeached, or passing away. If this happens before Election Day 2024 (November 5th, 2024), market will resolve as YES.
|
2023-09-17T21:15:21
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T12:37:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s0dFJNwOlXycHgQTBegS
|
Do more men think about the Roman Empire daily than women?
|
On a future ACX survey, probably around New Years', I'll ask subjects if they have thought about the Roman Empire in the past 24 hours. This question will resolve to YES if the percent of cis men who answer "yes" is at least 1.5x the percent of cis women who answer "yes".
If for some reason I can't do a survey like this before the April 1 close date, the question resolves N/A.
|
2023-09-17T19:40:02
|
2024-04-01T00:37:43
|
2024-04-01T00:37:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dqzeQZ93y2imevc6TgUR
|
Will Donald Trump attend the Sept. 27th Republican Primary Debate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-17T15:04:47
|
2023-09-27T20:59:00
|
2023-09-27T21:02:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-776GoiUIojrrdhdQdO6x
|
Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2024?
|
Whether Ukraine has "control" of territory is deferred to credible sources (e.g. Critical Threats, BBC).
"any part" means any single location. If Ukrainian forces make a beachhead via naval landing on the Crimean coast and hold it for a week, this would count. If Ukrainian forces control a farmhouse north of Perekop on the Crimean side of the boundary, this would count.
"at least a week" means continuously holding that single location. If Ukrainian forces hold onto a single location discontinuously (have it one day, then lose it the next), or hold onto different locations for a continuous week, neither of these would count.
|
2023-09-17T14:53:48
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:12:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TIkKWdJOepsOPHNMKfnb
|
Will a tropical storm make landfall anywhere in the continental US before the end of September?
|
Watching a potential spin-up low off the SE U.S. Coast. Does it have what it takes to become a Tropical Storm and make landfall as one? Resolves per the NHC.
[image]This map shows Tropical storm strike probability (5-10%) on 20230926 00z init on 20230917 00z via the Tropical cyclone activity (Including genesis) forecast product. The strike probability is based on the number of ENS members that predict a tropical storm, and each member has equal weight. The strike probability is the probability that a tropical storm will pass within a 300 km radius from a given location and within a time window of 48 hours.
|
2023-09-17T12:19:23
|
2023-09-23T05:18:54
|
2023-09-23T05:18:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WNUADbCXYLy6bdyJJGWg
|
Will Waymo announce 4 million driverless miles before the end of September 2023?
|
Any annoucement including a blog post, company/verifiable employee social media post, or press release/news article is fine. Time ends at 00:00 on October 1, 2023, Pacific Time. Note that this market depends on a public announcement, so it still resolves to NO if 4 million miles are announced in October even if those miles were achieved in September.
(Note that driverless miles are NOT the same as self-driving miles. The later includes safety driver miles)
|
2023-09-17T11:21:41
|
2023-10-01T08:49:48
|
2023-10-01T08:49:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5g9mcAU8ag0m5gqm4eEU
|
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen miss another Q3 appearance for the remaining qualifying sessions?
|
Resolves NO if Verstappen fails to make it into Q3 at any of the remaining qualifying sessions in the calendar (excluding sprints).
Will resolve NO even if Verstappen makes it into Q3, but is penalised into a lower starting position after making it out of Q2, technically below the Q3 order.
|
2023-09-17T09:07:34
|
2023-11-25T07:05:20
|
2023-11-25T07:05:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mNZMnysYCn5fCTXhTUBE
|
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Alex Albon be out-qualified by his teammate in the remaining qualifying sessions?
|
Resolves NO if Albon has a higher qualifying position in all the remaining sessions on the calendar.
Where there is any replacement driver for Sargeant who manages to outqualify Albon, the market will still resolve YES.
|
2023-09-17T09:04:41
|
2023-11-25T06:59:20
|
2023-11-25T06:59:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZCTU7FE0ff4mq43Jd6qA
|
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will either Zhou, Bottas, Lawson, Stroll, or Sargeant score points at the Japanese Grand Prix?
|
If ANY of the listed drivers finish in the top 10 to score points in the race at the Japanese Grand Prix, the market will resolve YES.
If there is any reserve/replacement driver for the listed drivers, the market will still resolve YES if that driver scores.
|
2023-09-17T09:00:08
|
2023-09-24T04:46:01
|
2023-09-24T04:46:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W5sSXzDS8i0Gab6Im8bQ
|
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen win the Japanese Grand Prix with a 15+ second lead?
|
Resolves YES if Verstappen wins the race at Suzuka, with a gap of 15 seconds or more crossing the finish line to the car in second place.
If Verstappen has a penalty yet to be served in the race, it will be accounted for in the gap for the market. For example, if he had a 5-second penalty (not yet served) and crossed the line 16 seconds ahead, the market would resolve NO.
If a penalty is considered and applied after the race finish, but Verstappen still has a 15+ second gap, the market will still resolve YES.
|
2023-09-17T08:55:52
|
2023-09-24T04:46:18
|
2023-09-24T04:46:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WbCXjehzFhJn3A2fHeAW
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the Japanese GP 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-17T07:13:32
|
2023-09-23T23:37:46
|
2023-09-23T23:37:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-boDVPwLEJe8xSmbFj7Af
|
Will Starship launch more than twice in 2023?
|
Current launch count for this year:
2
|
2023-09-17T06:37:08
|
2023-12-31T04:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:54:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wBKHXVf1l8M7CgJXrdLB
|
Will the S&P 500 close above 4,450 on Sep. 22, 2023?
|
No additional description provided.
|
2023-09-16T21:39:53
|
2023-09-22T09:00:00
|
2023-09-22T13:49:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hbqcnmQMODw0ldJ81NiR
|
Will Trump be Assassinated Before 2025?
|
Tucker Carlson recently claimed we are speeding towards the assassination of Donald Trump.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2023/09/02/tucker-carlsons-trump-assassination-conspiracy-theory-explained-where-it-started-who-is-pushing-it/amp/
Resolves yes if Trump dies and in my judgment it was a politically motivated murder. Resolves no if he dies from other causes or is still alive on the close date.
I will not be betting.
|
2023-09-16T20:33:23
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T06:21:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L6Tj0NcyMcuqWjANvt2C
|
Will Nigel become a major hurricane?
|
Resolves YES if Nigel is ever designated a Category 3 hurricane or stronger by the NHC.
|
2023-09-16T19:43:11
|
2023-09-22T08:35:52
|
2023-09-22T08:35:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BomFJSkCArYLJTc4HJKL
|
Will Bayern Munich beat Manchester United during regular time on Wed, Sep 20, 2023? - UEFA Champions League
|
⚽ Bayern Munich vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Wednesday, September 20, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Bayern Munich has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Both teams have an equal number of goals
Manchester United has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-09-16T17:26:30
|
2023-09-20T14:00:53
|
2023-09-20T14:00:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cpdiq6L659fxlfd2xUu3
|
Will Real Madrid beat Union Berlin during regular time on Wed, Sep 20, 2023? - UEFA Champions League
|
⚽ Real Madrid vs Union Berlin
📅 Date: Wednesday, September 20, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:45
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Real Madrid has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Both teams have an equal number of goals
Union Berlin has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-09-16T17:26:28
|
2023-09-20T11:45:42
|
2023-09-20T11:45:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yZE19AotmhsBGIas7yJB
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any postseason game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Season:
@/jks/-2024-nfl-will-any-week-1-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-18-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:55:35
|
2024-02-11T20:30:00
|
2024-02-11T20:30:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N9V3T00gLNMJ6TLKnQF4
|
Will the Straw Hats leave Egghead by chapter 1100?
|
Resolves YES when the straw hats leave Egghead Island. Resolves no if chapter 1100 passes and the crew is still in Egghead.
|
2023-09-16T14:54:13
|
2023-11-29T09:48:38
|
2023-11-29T09:48:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hzXOLuWZoQ8qG52nUouB
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 18 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-postseason-game
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-17-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:29:28
|
2024-01-07T20:59:00
|
2024-01-08T08:47:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m1pEhLa6mlm2pmwPQV1q
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 15 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-16-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-14-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:27:28
|
2023-12-14T21:15:57
|
2023-12-14T21:15:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gyyimZg2s4rN1SmyCDO3
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 12 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-13-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-11-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:26:38
|
2023-11-27T14:56:51
|
2023-11-27T14:56:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oJHkirVgBlMmo9YJ8HKT
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 11 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-12-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-10-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:26:22
|
2023-11-20T20:59:00
|
2023-11-20T21:34:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v9dkzfrW6iGgudKNtpzG
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 10 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-11-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-9-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:26:08
|
2023-11-13T20:59:00
|
2023-11-13T21:06:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cL1h5cDV6dfVtiuFte8d
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 7 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-8-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-6-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:23:27
|
2023-10-23T20:44:35
|
2023-10-23T20:44:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fW9VEhmaZkRpXtPhzsSe
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 6 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-7-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-5-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:23:13
|
2023-10-16T20:59:00
|
2023-10-16T21:54:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6jeiTwk9JNXRxTxQ1fFp
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 5 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-6-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-4-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:22:44
|
2023-10-09T20:59:00
|
2023-10-09T21:12:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bsvqY9Kidd5KcDV5KsuV
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will any Week 4 game end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
Next Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-5-game-end
Last Week:
@/jks/-2023-nfl-will-any-week-3-game-end
|
2023-09-16T14:22:30
|
2023-10-02T20:53:55
|
2023-10-02T20:53:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PAYQVLTDdesWuFaOgvWD
|
Will Varda Space Industries be able to land their capsule before the end of 2023?
|
Varda Space Industries is a private spaceflight company focused on in-orbit manufacturing. On September 6th, their W series capsule currently in orbit was denied permission to land at Utah Test and Training Range by the FAA.
|
2023-09-16T08:42:09
|
2024-01-01T20:59:00
|
2024-01-02T04:43:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8xdnoZhVMpA6Soio6jTV
|
Will New Shepard return to flight before the end of December 2023?
|
According to this Ars Technica article, Blue Origin is planning an uncrewed flight of the New Shepard suborbital rocket in October, over a year after an anomaly destroyed a booster in flight.
This market gives them all the way until the end of the year.
Resolves YES if a New Shepard rocket launches to at least 1km altitude before market close. Resolves NO if this does not happen before market close, or if Blue Origin makes a public announcement that rules out the possibility of a launch before market close.
Other market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Multicore/will-new-shepard-return-to-flight-b)
|
2023-09-16T06:37:26
|
2023-12-19T13:23:03
|
2023-12-19T13:23:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7WHL0yknkwKYv1CPk2fZ
|
Will Nintendo announce a successor to their Switch console before June 1, 2024?
|
This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch.
This includes a 'pro' version that can be fully backwards compatible but can play games that switch can't or with increased hardware capabilities.
The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced instead(ex. OLED version), or if there are no new console announcements.
|
2023-09-16T02:10:28
|
2024-06-01T05:00:35
|
2024-06-01T05:00:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qndOqU74nW7UDVNL1vDl
|
Will Ramzan Kadyrov stay alive through 2023?
|
Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov (born 5 October 1976) is a Russian politician and current Head of the Chechen Republic. He was formerly affiliated to the Chechen independence movement, through his father who was the separatist-appointed mufti of Chechnya. He is a colonel general in the Russian military.
[image]
|
2023-09-16T01:11:56
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:10:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zpfit2HkGYRFLJs4tMi9
|
Will Ramzan Kadyrov still be head of Chechnya on Jan 1, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-16T00:36:30
|
2024-01-01T05:41:24
|
2024-01-01T05:41:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KxY6O8ZSeitlOkukmyJL
|
Will Barbie win best picture in the 2024 Oscars?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-16T00:33:22
|
2024-03-10T20:28:13
|
2024-03-10T20:28:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eP39ACGvcxo9oDNsMwUz
|
Will Oppenheimer win best picture 2024?
|
This question will resolve yes if Oppenheimer wins best picture at the 2024 oscars.
|
2023-09-16T00:31:55
|
2024-03-10T21:31:32
|
2024-03-10T21:31:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fD7XRvrK14gCeLfdlUAk
|
Will we ever cure cancer?
|
Will we ever 'cure' cancer? As in, sure we can get cancer, but we reduce the mortality rate to 0% given a certain type of treatment, or 'cure'. (Not everyone has to have access to that cure).
Since this will not (likely) happen in our lifetime, resolves to the majority (YES if % > 50, No otherwise)
|
2023-09-15T21:44:10
|
2023-09-30T23:59:00
|
2023-10-03T01:07:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jYD9IkT7g2zQuLO6lWBU
|
Will Destiny attend Camp Knut before August 2024
|
https://campknut.gg/
Knut asked Destiny on stream today (15.09.2023) if he would join Camp Knut Kick edition if one was to be organized.
Resolves NO is one does not get organized before August 2024 or if Destiny isn't in it. He also has to be a competitor and not give up/DQL for a YES resolution.
|
2023-09-15T18:39:07
|
2024-08-01T13:59:00
|
2024-08-01T19:01:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XR9sEYZKXU6aRyFTzljW
|
Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2024 than in 2023, according to Gallup?
|
Gallup polls Americans every year in May on the moral acceptability of a diverse list of issues. Gallup lists an annual poll on the moral acceptability of abortion as far back as 2001, when 42% considered abortion morally acceptable. In 2022, for the first time since Gallup began polling this question, abortion was morally acceptable to a majority of Americans, at 52%.
Will Gallup polling show 53% or more of Americans consider abortion morally acceptable in 2024?
|
2023-09-15T16:08:03
|
2024-07-10T09:02:16
|
2024-07-10T09:02:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nSoKNm6xvgZbFPZL2oGq
|
Will ChatGPT5 be released by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-15T15:20:43
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-26T10:58:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mVG3aZE1VGvdMkb9Lg4j
|
Will Donald Trump be jailed for violating a gag order in 2023?
|
I will not bet in this market.
Some clarification points from the comment section:
If he is ordered to go to jail but for whatever reason does not actually go to jail (dies on the way, flees custody, etc.), this will not resolve Yes unless he is actually jailed.
There is still considerable room for interpretation of what exactly it means to be 'jailed', whether 'jailed' requires being held in a specific place or how expansive that term can be, etc.
The over-arching principle here is I would resolve yes if people say "he went to jail". If the judge says "You're not allowed to leave the state of Florida" or "You're not allowed to leave your house unless you're coming to the court", that is not "jailed". Being taken in the back of a police car is probably not being "jailed".
If the judge says "You're to be held by the X person in the Y room of this court until 5pm when I will have my decision", that very well could be "jailed" because it is being held in a place as if it was a jail. If he's sent from a court to a place known as a jail, and not allowed to leave immediately, he was probably "jailed" even if he isn't literally behind bars.
|
2023-09-15T14:54:01
|
2023-12-31T21:00:00
|
2023-12-31T21:02:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CgFtpkffTemxL8zE6YMF
|
Will Bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market be 50% or higher at EOY 2023?
|
Historic Bitcoin dominance can be viewed here, which will also be oracle for the market's resolution.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/
[link preview]
|
2023-09-15T14:26:18
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:54:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3bSi2EvmXmopwZztLkJ6
|
Will Germany introduce a carbon dividend/"Klimageld" before the next federal election?
|
The current german gouvernment has agreed in its coalition agreement to introduce a "Klimageld" to compensate the social burden of carbon fees. Similar systems already exist in Austria and Switzerland.
The question resolves "yes" if and when a law is passed to distribute an equal-ish amount of money per person among the german population on a regular basis, at least yearly. It must be designed specifically to redistribute revenue from environment-related fees.
The question resolves "no" on the day of the next federal german election (26th of October 2025 at the latest), if no such law was passed by then.
|
2023-09-15T12:45:01
|
2025-02-23T14:59:00
|
2025-02-28T03:31:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M91cpYAqLE2Xe3cHi7O2
|
Will Messi win Ballon d'Or?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or for 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is France Football’s website: https://www.francefootball.fr/ballon-d-or/palmares/, however live footage of the ceremony and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-15T12:44:32
|
2023-10-30T21:59:00
|
2023-10-31T07:05:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2StLG3ddiAxIIZY5BnJT
|
Will Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov die before the end of 2023?
|
Must be confirmed by a trusted source.
|
2023-09-15T11:39:48
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:03:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vSLQuUU6V9h1wfrpsp52
|
Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov dies this year?
|
According to some news outlets, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is reportedly in a coma due to a serious illness.
This market will resolve as YES if Kadyrov dies before 2024, regardless of the cause of death.
|
2023-09-15T11:22:59
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:49:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oqUqt3Ac1H6t371fS1BZ
|
Will UAW's demand for a 40% hourly pay increase be met by any of the Detroit automakers by October 31?
|
Resolution Source: Official announcements from UAW or the Detroit automakers, or major news outlets reporting on the negotiations.
Expiry: October 31, 2023, 12:00 p.m. ET.
|
2023-09-15T11:19:02
|
2023-09-22T20:59:00
|
2023-11-14T06:05:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-28h0RFlLj7qi3XuRxq5j
|
Will Google's Gemini model destroy the world?
|
Google's Gemini model is planned to be released soon. AI models are predicted to possibly wipe out humanity. This question asked, will Google's Gemini model wipe out humanity. It resolves positive if humanity is destroyed by Google Gemini (directly or indirectly) within 1 year of its release, and negative otherwise.
|
2023-09-15T11:13:54
|
2025-02-07T20:59:00
|
2025-02-28T17:47:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-faohHvS1Um9zKhgd3Dvf
|
Will China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu make a public appearance or statement by October 15, 2023?
|
"A public appearance is defined as any event, meeting, or function where Li Shangfu is seen and is reported by major news outlets."
"A statement is defined as any official communication, interview, or announcement made by or on behalf of Li Shangfu."
"Social media posts, rumors, or unofficial sources will not be considered as valid evidence of a public appearance or statement."
"Resolution source: Official Chinese government websites, press releases, or major international news outlets."
"Expiry date: October 15, 2023."
|
2023-09-15T11:00:04
|
2023-10-15T20:59:00
|
2023-10-16T12:04:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PefPJowCAcANchRHqIg3
|
Will Justin Fields be the starting QB for the Chicago Bears in 2024, Week 1?
|
Resolves to YES if Justin Fields starts the Bears' first game of the 2024 season.
|
2023-09-15T10:39:48
|
2024-09-17T23:33:02
|
2024-09-17T23:33:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FeGJjPYUIerTozruup5a
|
Will Kizaru use a new technique in chapter 1093?
|
Kizaru has to use a new named technique in chapter 1093 for this to resolve YES. The move MUST involve the Pika-Pika No Mi in some way to count. Will resolve once english translated raws are out and not spoilers
|
2023-09-15T10:36:50
|
2023-09-21T09:38:27
|
2023-09-21T19:16:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DC6gwZq0W6YdVtdbZ7Ft
|
Is Ramzan Kadyrov alive at the end of 2023?
|
There’s other markets with the same question so I’ll collect them here to ease your arbitraging
https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ramzan-kadyrov-stay-alive-thro?r=QW50dGlSYXNpbmVu
https://manifold.markets/AviS/will-chechen-leader-ramzan-kadyrov?r=QW50dGlSYXNpbmVu
https://manifold.markets/BokiLee/will-chechen-leader-ramzan-kadyrov-61c0faedfc17?r=QW50dGlSYXNpbmVu
Not quite the same but almost
https://manifold.markets/PS/will-ramzan-kadyrov-still-be-head-o
|
2023-09-15T10:25:22
|
2024-01-01T00:28:40
|
2024-01-01T00:28:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qKR5Qb4FxSd90Qo1rvfv
|
Will "A Haunting in Venice" gross >$14M on opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'A Haunting in Venice' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt22687790/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 15 - September 17) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘A Haunting in Venice' (2023) grosses more than $14,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by September 24, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-09-15T09:39:52
|
2023-09-24T21:59:00
|
2023-09-25T09:36:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NU8EzYUZEhMgUbHV0ZYJ
|
Will Insomniac's Spider Man 2 score 90 or higher on Metacritic?
|
Will the PlayStation exclusive get 90 or higher on metacritic one week after launch?
[image]
|
2023-09-15T09:07:47
|
2023-10-27T14:59:00
|
2023-10-28T23:33:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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