id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-m3fsw8DpopBdVw36KAod | Will OpenAI reach a settlement with the New York Times over potential copyright issues before June 30, 2024? | The market settles to 'yes' if a reputable source confirms that OpenAI and the New York Times have reached a settlement over potential copyright issues before June 30, 2024. If there's no such confirmation by this date, the market resolves to 'no'. | 2023-09-15T08:59:27 | 2024-06-30T20:59:00 | 2024-07-01T16:02:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-heDzT95dUrPMnUN0FWqz | Will the New York Times file a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements by December 31, 2023? | The market resolves to 'yes' if a reputable source confirms that the 'New York Times' has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements before December 31, 2023. If no such lawsuit is filed by this date, the market resolves to 'no'. | 2023-09-15T08:58:37 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:14:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LbtymgaYIpbEFeKcUcBW | Will Ukraine control the Bakhmut railway station by 2024? | As reported by https://deepstatemap.live/en .
[link preview] | 2023-09-15T08:54:14 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-05T05:15:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YleFhm7mAbAVzTW1dUmI | Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024? | If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction ... | 2023-09-15T08:50:44 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:20:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AuWW4YrQXyuxXkExAeaA | Will Google successfully launch their AI news article writing product for public use by January 1, 2024? | This prediction will be resolved as 'yes' if Google announces the public release of their AI news writing product on their official website or to the mainstream media by 11:59 PM Pacific Standard Time (PST) on January 1, 2024. Any other outcome will result in the prediction being resolved as 'no'. The resolution source... | 2023-09-15T08:48:34 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:20:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZStkXC7q2Si5Qq4WaQ5S | Will Judge Tanya Chutkan recuse herself from the Jan. 6 case that involves Donald Trump? | Market resolves as 'yes' if an official statement or report confirms Judge Tanya Chutkan's recusal from the case. The market will resolve by January 1, 2024. | 2023-09-15T08:38:24 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:14:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IuoEnENoeMG6Yqskb1yO | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 18th September than it closed on 15th September? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Monnday 18th September than it did on Friday 15th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute pri... | 2023-09-15T07:38:30 | 2023-09-18T08:30:00 | 2023-09-18T09:32:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1Pq5EgxvJEPHMW7Zm3Hs | Will the FDA approve MDMA as a treatment for PTSD by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-15T07:35:15 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T18:48:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9LBYx7PCNz1ZvpEkqpSF | GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024? | The intent of this question is to get at whether the open-source community, and/or random torrent pirates or darkweb people or whatever, will be able to download and then run a model as generally capable as GPT-4. (Assuming they have the right hardware). Doesn't have to be legal; if a hacker steals the model and sells ... | 2023-09-15T07:28:46 | 2024-07-22T19:46:50 | 2024-07-22T19:46:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o8fW5iXWnQS9GYwluneP | Will iMessage integrate a chatbot by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-15T01:16:03 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T04:59:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lljP5EYzkbuAFecdcCmB | Will Facebook integrate a chatbot into the newsfeed by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-15T01:13:40 | 2023-12-31T20:11:32 | 2023-12-31T20:11:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nfmq8FjHNLZJdwusVHLy | Will Destiny share a panel with Vaush at Vidcon? | Destiny is currently listed for one panel:
[image]Additional, Similar vidcon markets
@/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau-13f22389cf88 <--- you are here
@/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau
@/Gen/will-someone-back-out-from-the-brid | 2023-09-14T23:31:26 | 2023-09-30T07:29:00 | 2023-10-01T01:48:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3vHfvKNgybWeHLtl1188 | Will Destiny share a panel with Vaush and Emma Vigeland at Vidcon? | Destiny is currently listed for one panel:
[image]@/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau-13f22389cf88
@/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau <-- you are here
@/Gen/will-someone-back-out-from-the-brid | 2023-09-14T23:30:37 | 2023-09-30T07:29:00 | 2023-10-01T01:48:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zaFy1weXYyRTNyJsB9E2 | Will Jimmy Carter become the oldest currently-living former head of state? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-14T18:16:39 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:38:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KmUj9MJOmjPnYzg1pdhU | Will SAG strike negotiations restart by the end of September? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-14T17:13:11 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T09:34:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2Gf7gTZvN7OAgzWzs8Hx | Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 10 days from Sep 18-Sep 29? | We only care about the integer part cutting off any fraction without rounding.. We are only referring to the closing price.
This is for a timespan of 10 days. If there is a holiday or other day without a unique closing price in the interval due to the market not having been open, we will extend the deadline to get a... | 2023-09-14T16:14:04 | 2023-09-29T13:20:47 | 2023-09-29T13:20:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ogV4ysdFK3j2kU9X2Ude | Will the last digit of the S&P 500 closing price be even on 5+ of 10 days from Sep 18-Sep 29? | The last digit is the last whole number. We are only referring to the closing price
This is for a timespan of 10 days. If there is a holiday or other day without a unique closing price in the interval, we will extend the deadline to get another day until there are 10 days included.
Examples how to determine the "las... | 2023-09-14T15:50:55 | 2023-09-29T13:18:53 | 2023-09-29T13:18:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y544N5F8e15AY9GqoetM | Will Hasan Talk to Destiny on stream in 2024 | Since Hasan isn't growing much, do we think that Hasan will Talk to Destiny on stream in 2024. most likely it would be so he could increase his viewership again. | 2023-09-14T15:14:11 | 2025-01-01T20:12:30 | 2025-01-01T20:12:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m9UMfKBTQXDNLGLC859D | Will the WGA strike end by October 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the... | 2023-09-14T13:58:31 | 2023-09-27T10:06:44 | 2023-09-27T10:06:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ta5zKoS84tBlzNIMmzwU | Will the WGA strike end by September 30? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end t... | 2023-09-14T13:58:02 | 2023-09-27T10:05:58 | 2023-09-27T10:05:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-giXjYDActV8LKlp46o4x | Will SAG end strike by Nov 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG - AFTRA) strike ends by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SAG-AFTRA ... | 2023-09-14T13:56:55 | 2023-11-11T07:27:36 | 2023-11-11T07:27:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kwKImDALBsKJsEk6z5Jt | Will SAG end strike by Oct 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG - AFTRA) strike ends by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SAG-AFTRA (... | 2023-09-14T13:56:36 | 2023-10-16T06:22:55 | 2023-10-16T06:22:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ung0yBP8aQioYYEzsD5B | Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Dec 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through Dec 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government ... | 2023-09-14T13:49:41 | 2023-10-03T13:50:19 | 2023-10-03T13:50:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m5mwxjZzFFmSPEe7Ut9J | Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Nov 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through Nov 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government ... | 2023-09-14T13:37:14 | 2023-10-03T13:50:02 | 2023-10-03T13:50:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c5jNgEMu1f73K4FdSW0n | Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Governm... | 2023-09-14T13:36:53 | 2023-10-03T13:49:45 | 2023-10-03T13:49:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-58S4YHtzwGW4acIjOL2Q | Will a Democrat win the Kentucky gubernatorial election? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democrat wins the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 7, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable p... | 2023-09-14T13:35:47 | 2023-11-08T09:27:39 | 2023-11-08T09:27:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vKveySUB9kfKcu6aHNk5 | ⚡️ Will there be a blackout in Texas during 10/14 solar eclipse? 🌞🌘🔌 | On Oct 14 there will be a solar eclipse in Texas around noon, when PV solar is at its peak. With 22GW of solar at stake, will it break the grid?
I will resolve YES if there is a blackout affecting at least 10k households.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/texas-s-grid-faces-october-solar-eclipse-chal... | 2023-09-14T12:31:01 | 2023-10-14T15:57:59 | 2023-10-14T15:57:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o5ExCq8rE8sLhBWbx2EO | Will President Lula appoint Flávio Dino to the Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) by the end of 2023? | Context
Lula, the current President of Brazil, has signaled to close associates that Flávio Dino is his choice for the upcoming vacancy in the STF. This vacancy will be created due to the retirement of Rosa Weber, a female justice. There was an expectation that Lula would nominate a woman to maintain gender balance in... | 2023-09-14T12:16:56 | 2023-11-27T09:28:28 | 2023-11-27T09:28:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-noZ9eGKF9PhsTshRPTub | Will Vladimir Putin visit North Korea before March 2024? | Between date of question creation September 2023 and last of February 2024.
Resolves based on credible news reports.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/will-vladimir-putin-visit-north-kor) | 2023-09-14T09:38:47 | 2024-03-03T15:35:55 | 2024-03-03T15:35:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6vespH8HmArvPyBeWvmm | Will MrBeast’s Squid Game video have half a billion views before the end of September? | MrBeast's most viewed YouTube video was a recreation of Squid Game, published on YouTube on 24 Nov 2021. As of the time of writing this question, the video has 496 million views.
Will MrBeast's Squid Game video on YouTube achieve half a billion views before this month (September) ends?
If timing becomes relevant, mid... | 2023-09-14T09:38:08 | 2023-09-20T11:45:56 | 2023-09-20T11:45:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aSBLsLBdHakRqZgZjvNt | Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee has >50% of all votes cast in the 2024 Presidential Election by the time the new President is inaugurated. | 2023-09-14T09:28:27 | 2024-11-06T07:22:39 | 2024-11-06T07:22:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2i7amc0NL9lMwWoourCd | Will Vladimir Putin visit North Korea before 2025? | Between date of question creation September 2023 and Dec 31st 2024.
Resolves based on credible news reports.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/will-vladimir-putin-visit-north-kor-25fc1299e5a2) | 2023-09-13T22:22:54 | 2024-06-19T23:22:23 | 2024-06-19T23:22:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DT5O5R9daTjIkCvS36B7 | Will a large-scale, Eliezer-Yudkowsky-approved AI alignment project be funded before 2025? | If Eliezer thinks the project is hopelessly misguided, that's no good. If he thinks the project isn't going to work but was at least a noble effort, that's sufficient to resolve this to YES. In other words the project should be something relativly similar to what he would have done with those resources if he were put i... | 2023-09-13T21:36:36 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T12:15:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UH2aArA7Qm4GwyvHD9mI | Will a large scale, government-backed AI alignment project be funded before 2025? | Purely private company endeavours do not count. At least 50% of the funding must come from one or more governments.
The focus must be on alignment over capabilites. A dual focus is acceptible as long as there's a serious committment to alignment.
The total amount of funding must be at least $3 billion.
In the event ... | 2023-09-13T21:28:18 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T12:28:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bLg64gagaODWKJ35witN | Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on September 14th than it closed on September 13th? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)
Predictions close at ̶ ̶2̶p̶m̶ ̶E̶T̶ 1 3pm ET (7pm UTC)
1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!
Previous Close :
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ at the end of the day.
Resolves N... | 2023-09-13T16:59:50 | 2023-09-14T12:00:00 | 2023-09-14T16:21:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZFdOelPxjHae2UpZUcfw | Will Sufjan Stevens new album 'Javelin' get an 8 or above on Pitchfork? | This market resolves YES if 'Javelin' by Sufjan Stevens gets a rating of 8 or above on Pitchfork. The market closes on Sunday after the album is released, as Pitchfork will likely release the review on Monday (I am open to changing the close date.)
I'm creating this market because I am incapable of forming my own opin... | 2023-09-13T16:21:23 | 2023-10-04T22:07:11 | 2023-10-04T22:07:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NhKjMnd8V7dkdpDmRrsV | Will the U.S. inflation be 3.5% or less in September 2023? | U.S. inflation from December 2022 to September 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%, 3.6997%.
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.5% or less in September 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (307.19628)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/in... | 2023-09-13T15:21:51 | 2023-10-12T16:32:44 | 2023-10-12T16:32:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tzNW9bYDiPLoeldHZ7YM | Will Ivanka’s name appear on a ballot for any office by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-13T14:55:18 | 2024-12-31T15:27:52 | 2024-12-31T15:27:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eP2oNI94I6aLfi0Wz6MI | Will Don Jr appear on a ballot for any office by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-13T14:54:21 | 2024-12-31T15:07:49 | 2024-12-31T15:07:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v5xWz4AEyo8Mw7cwMWhO | Will an original work be in the top 10 grossing films in the US in 2023? | An "original work" is defined as either wholly original or derivative of a non-famous cultural product in another medium (e.g. an obscure novel turned into a film). Sequels, films in a cinematic universe (e.g. MCU), films based on a non-book famous cultural product (e.g. Barbie), do not count as an original work.
Film... | 2023-09-13T12:50:25 | 2023-12-31T21:37:16 | 2023-12-31T21:37:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-di77b3S1RDI5cByncd4N | Will Unity walk back their new “Runtime Fee” before the end of 2023? | Unity announced they will be charging developers a fee every time their game is installed.
If this policy is still in place at the end of the year, this market resolves NO.
Otherwise, it resolves YES.
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/unity-runtime-fee-policy-marc-whitten | 2023-09-13T11:04:34 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-03T23:39:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i4TBi474weysZfD683pI | Will the Covid Lab Leak Theory become truth by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-13T10:54:26 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-03-01T08:13:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sMW9Fqhd558RmrKCKaV3 | The Factorio expansion will be released in 2024 | Originally promised for 2022.
https://www.factorio.com/blog/post/fff-367 | 2023-09-13T10:19:19 | 2024-10-21T15:22:16 | 2024-10-21T15:22:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WN1uklz0sVT4d4Iwh39l | Will Inter Miami beat Orlando City? ⚽ MLS | Inter Miami wins = yes / Orlando City wins or draws = no | 2023-09-13T09:13:57 | 2023-09-24T20:31:33 | 2023-09-24T20:31:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BMz8dqOZokZYruVXc3jz | Will Inter Miami beat Toronto? ⚽ MLS | Inter Miami wins = yes / Toronto wins or draws = no | 2023-09-13T09:09:43 | 2023-09-20T18:38:45 | 2023-09-20T18:38:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h0XuIvALhmIshxoT7StK | Will Silksong be released in 2024? | Will Silksong, the sequel to Hollow Knight, be delayed to release after 2023, into 2024?
If Silksong is released in 2023 OR 2025 onwards, market resolves as NO | 2023-09-13T08:41:19 | 2024-12-31T08:39:00 | 2025-01-02T18:26:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2pSQOIUjCBygbS2KPvmi | Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the New York Giants in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | The midday slate of Week 2 games begins with two NFC teams recovering from bad performances, with the Cardinals nearly upsetting the Commanders and the Giants getting gobsmacked by the Cowboy on Sunday Night Football. Can the Cardinals take advantage of a recuperating Giants squad, or can Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkle... | 2023-09-13T07:49:30 | 2023-09-17T16:17:03 | 2023-09-17T16:17:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hYxkA9PX8efrqHKgH0Fb | Will France recall iPhone 12s due to radiation before the end of the year? | https://www.reuters.com/technology/french-watchdog-halts-iphone-12-sales-over-too-high-radiation-minister-2023-09-12/
[link preview]"Apple is expected to respond within two weeks", he said, adding: "If they fail to do so, I am prepared to order a recall of all iPhones 12 in circulation. The rule is the same for everyo... | 2023-09-13T07:40:39 | 2023-12-31T19:58:13 | 2023-12-31T19:58:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Clsom3O9chCVnMclVVh9 | Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Las Vegas Raiders in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | The second Sunday of the 2023 NFL season starts off with teams whose records are not what most expected, with the Bills hoping to recover from a Josh Allen disasterclass against the Raiders, who held on to beat the Broncos. Will Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs build a connection to beat the Raiders, or will Josh Jacobs and... | 2023-09-13T07:09:18 | 2023-09-17T13:04:55 | 2023-09-17T13:05:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vMdBk1iYQQlMq8WGS9s0 | Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Green Bay Packers in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | The second Sunday of the 2023 NFL season starts off with two winners, with the Falcons hoping to keep things moving with their run game against the Packers - who crushed the spirit of Bears' fans through Jordan Love's 3 TDs. Will Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier help the Falcons stampede the Packers, or will Aaron Jon... | 2023-09-13T07:04:16 | 2023-09-17T13:17:11 | 2023-09-17T13:17:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gkmf7KkGvE8ZKscJtkkM | Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season starts off with a bang, with a 1-0 Eagles squad hoping to continue its revenge season against a 0-1 Vikings squad hoping to recover from a stunning loss to the Buccaneers to start the season. Will Jalen Hurts be able to guide the Eagles to another victory, or will Kirk Cousins and his grou... | 2023-09-13T06:50:23 | 2023-09-14T20:21:55 | 2023-09-14T20:22:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gbfb3vI2LDZnNDmp9I0s | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Utah defeat USC? | Kickoff: October 21, 2023 - Time TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, California | 2023-09-13T00:52:23 | 2023-10-21T20:30:00 | 2023-10-21T20:35:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bneofKCp8CsYRAshwKn4 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Penn State defeat Ohio State? | Kickoff: Saturday, October 21, 2023 - 12 noon EDT
Ohio Stadium - Columbus, Ohio | 2023-09-13T00:45:02 | 2023-10-21T13:00:00 | 2023-10-21T13:52:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d4sLHbXc42jUBmqKxVCJ | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Ohio State defeat Michigan? | Kickoff: Saturday, November 25, 2023 - 12 noon EST
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan | 2023-09-13T00:40:12 | 2023-11-25T12:52:45 | 2023-11-25T12:52:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oqRQdVGG33KvQlywk98K | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will USC defeat Notre Dame? | Kickoff: October 14, 2023 - TBD
Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana | 2023-09-13T00:37:36 | 2023-10-14T20:00:00 | 2023-10-15T00:26:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QQoBnSHvAUOcoe1LUoFj | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Alabama defeat Texas A&M? | Kickoff: October 7, 2023 - 2:30 PM CDT
Kyle Field, College Station, Texas | 2023-09-13T00:35:03 | 2023-10-07T16:30:00 | 2023-10-07T18:05:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WnHLIhIZu8PHNokzdBdV | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 12th October show positive growth? | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 12th October..
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (August in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution note... | 2023-09-12T22:14:08 | 2023-10-11T23:20:01 | 2023-10-11T23:20:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lF0UhPIOKlQaJuXzo5W8 | Will Russia launch a North Korean satellite by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-12T21:34:41 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:53:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jFSkp3FdIIrKdnIkJ5L3 | Will the 118th Congress vote on an article of impeachment against Joe Biden? | Must be a vote of the full House. | 2023-09-12T17:04:52 | 2025-01-06T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T15:06:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2ayv97mxIwj0gMLScGNL | Will Tim Scott suspend his Presidential Campaign between now and Halloween? | He's not handling the pressure particularly well.
If he pulls a Ross Perot and gets out but then later gets back in, this market still resolves yes. Any formal announcement from him or his campaign about suspending his candidancy resolves the market yes. | 2023-09-12T15:31:45 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-10-31T21:02:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CFqEQBKYptGdITHJWcUG | Does "Graphene Energy Harvesting" work? | Researchers at the University of Arkansas claim to have found a way to harvest energy from heat (not heat gradients) using graphene and a nonlinear circuit. See here:
https://news.uark.edu/articles/64925/scientists-design-novel-nonlinear-circuit-to-harvest-clean-power-using-graphene
https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstr... | 2023-09-12T14:39:59 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-02T11:02:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PfRoExFLVXQ78B5ut60N | LK-99 will be added to Wikipedia's list of scientific errors and frauds before 2025 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_experimental_errors_and_frauds_in_physics
It must be on the page for at least two weeks | 2023-09-12T13:32:39 | 2024-03-09T17:55:47 | 2024-03-09T17:55:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iUA9Ddc0CVYiNthwVluW | Will a large scale Alignment Project like The Omega Protocol be funded before 2025? | Will an organization or government fund a project that construct an AI containment zone where we can safely create AGI and possibly Superintelligence? Some theorize that we can use AGI to independently generate candidate alignment procedures which we could verify safe using a combination of top scientists and the other... | 2023-09-12T12:44:09 | 2025-01-01T21:59:00 | 2025-01-14T11:41:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ec1ITvSSkBCSTWZWodGZ | Will Unity fully revert their new "Runtime Fee" policy by the end of September? | Today we found out that Unity is introducing a disasterous "Runtime Fee" policy.
Will they walk it back and reverse this descision?
At the end of the month if they have not announced a reversal of the policy this market resolves NO.
Otherwise at the end of the month this market resolves YES.
Clarification from ... | 2023-09-12T11:40:55 | 2023-09-30T23:59:00 | 2023-10-01T00:07:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rrh5L4J0TbiHEOihEaMC | Biden resigns in his first term. | Resolves to YES if Biden resigns in his first term; NO otherwise.
Resolves to NO if he dies during his first term.
Resolves on Jan 21, 2025.
Relevant information: https://electionbettingodds.com/BidenResigns.html
[link preview] | 2023-09-12T10:35:20 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-01-23T13:58:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-98GRaWnDj7c8LJUeSVSQ | Will a Democrat win the popular vote in ALL of the following presidential elections: 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040 | For additional context, here's the popular vote percentages in the U.S. Presidential elections going back to 1960. Note, the numbers are from ChatGPT, I verified several but not all of them.
2020:
- Dem (Joe Biden) - 51.3% (81.2 M)
- Rep (Donald Trump) - 46.8% (74.2 M)
- All Other - 2.0% (3.1 M)
- Total votes ca... | 2023-09-12T10:00:21 | 2024-11-18T15:07:52 | 2024-11-18T15:07:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-577c69mCFAxyyb04gkJA | Will Biden get impeached? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-12T08:57:19 | 2023-09-19T11:29:00 | 2023-10-04T16:21:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pQMp8rISDVuMxupFktn5 | Will Joe Biden be impeached by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-12T08:53:42 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:34:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6XepvSxpzDc6RWPHpOaX | Will AAPL drop below $170 in September 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-12T07:59:31 | 2023-09-27T13:32:37 | 2023-09-27T13:32:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FSMU4UOJvTjyCmIt7SJH | Will Aaron Rodgers play again before the end of the regular season? | From week 2 till the postseason, will Aaron Rodgers play a down as QB for the New York Jets. | 2023-09-12T07:02:53 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-09T13:14:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PjlaSU6Gde9sju5fyGkB | Will the Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots on Sunday night? | New England is at home, Miami is favorded by 7. | 2023-09-12T06:59:51 | 2023-09-17T20:59:00 | 2023-09-18T04:21:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DvtHKNAZtwJQcXBk1QAo | Will the term "Vivekmentum" or "Vivek-mentum" appear in the New York Times from 9/12/2023 to 10/12/2023? | Can Vivek get more press, or has his star faded?
It is appears in an online story before 11:59 pm local NYC time on 10/12/2023, this market resolves yes. Must appear exactly as in the quotes. | 2023-09-12T06:20:55 | 2023-10-12T20:59:00 | 2023-10-13T04:07:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BFVXkVxAqmL81qOERLkW | ⚽️ Will France 🇫🇷 beat the Netherlands 🇳🇱 on 10/13 in the euro qualifiers? | 🗓️ October 13 2023 at 8:45pm
Netherlands — France
Game 6 euro qualifiers
I will resolve as follows:
France wins -> YES
Netherlands wins -> NO
Draw -> NO
Game interrupted/cancelled -> NA (even if replayed later) | 2023-09-12T00:51:02 | 2023-10-13T13:46:34 | 2023-10-13T13:46:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qdQKWJo8hiQzPKbX0t46 | Will all iPhones released at the Apple event have a USB-C port? | September 2023 event.
Resolves N/A if no iPhones are released. | 2023-09-12T00:43:01 | 2023-09-12T11:28:08 | 2023-09-12T11:28:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yUXvUS6st7v6ZhnP46wR | Will Bluesky be decentralized in practice before the end of 2024? | Bluesky is microblogging social network and an initiative to develop a protocol for decentralized social networking. Its flagship service, bsky.app was launched as a beta in early 2023.
Despite being based on a decentralized protocol, Bluesky remains centralized in practice as no third-party services that can interact... | 2023-09-11T21:06:20 | 2024-07-21T13:00:24 | 2024-07-21T13:00:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SqVKnO4ju5gP1lzZZ5J6 | Will a cyber attack against self driving vehicles intentionally kill 100+ people in a day before end of 2024? | A bad actor has to do a hack of self-driving systems which kills 100+ people before eoy 2024 in a single day.
Counts:
Taking over cars and intentionally crashing or driving off bridges or into planes at airports
Locking people in
Taking people to inhospitable environments
Doesn't count
Disabling support of self... | 2023-09-11T16:58:04 | 2025-01-01T22:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:37:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hQ0vrLJ2saN9NVw2hNYU | Will Elon Musk endorse a presidential candidate by the end of October 2023? | Resolves as YES only if there is an official endorsement. Saying only flattering things will resolve as NO. Need not use the word endorsement, a commitment to support or "s/he has my vote" will suffice. | 2023-09-11T15:44:19 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-11-01T03:15:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E4xZOmrVNUDhjDEYK4vj | Will the Fed raise interest rates in the October-November 2023 meeting? | The FOMC is scheduled to meet Oct 31st to Nov 1st. This market resolves YES if at this meeting the FOMC decides to increase the federal funds rate target range.
If the meeting is delayed, the market will resolve instead on any change to the target range announced in November, or NO if there is no such announcement by... | 2023-09-11T15:31:11 | 2023-11-01T13:25:54 | 2023-11-01T13:25:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ad91VAk7TfN22VwXUC42 | Will Destiny and Sam Harris have a conversation before March 2024? | Either irl or on a video call | 2023-09-11T13:16:32 | 2024-02-29T22:23:07 | 2024-02-29T22:23:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs | Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30? | Background: https://archive.ph/2023.09.09-191732/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-shutdown-what-does-it-mean-2023-09-08/
Resolves YES if Congress is unable to pass the bills or a Continuing Resolution prior to midnight September 30th | 2023-09-11T09:39:56 | 2023-10-01T16:56:17 | 2023-10-01T16:56:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ueM1gfB4WqSPhIHjtTFN | Will Italy beat Ukraine? ⚽ UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifiers | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-11T08:37:16 | 2023-09-12T13:39:07 | 2023-09-12T13:39:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8zTcvS8ltJrJqguGjjEP | Will Kim Jong Un go abroad in 2024? | As reported by credible media.
Resolves NO if Kim Jong Un is not alive, and has not yet been abroad in the given year. | 2023-09-11T06:00:26 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-04T05:49:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BxXAlGN70GCJ95aDrhBC | Will Elon Musk father ANOTHER child in 2023? | This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk.
If no new spawn of Elon Musk have been reported by December 31, ... | 2023-09-11T05:54:29 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:00:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6z82zF5oT9TBLgUk3D7i | Will the Miami Dolphins drown the New England Patriots? | YES if Dolphins win. NO if Patriots win or tie. | 2023-09-11T05:24:40 | 2023-09-17T20:59:00 | 2023-09-17T20:59:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oANxnvtpIYFrqKCbsfec | Will the New York Jets destroy the Dallas Cowboys? | YES if Jets win. NO if Cowboys win or tie. | 2023-09-11T05:18:56 | 2023-09-17T20:59:00 | 2023-09-17T20:59:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HFqkByxSP5L1YK1LHFZn | Will the Chicago Bears maul the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? | YES if Bears win. NO if Buccaneers win or tie. | 2023-09-11T05:16:58 | 2023-09-17T20:58:19 | 2023-09-17T20:58:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wq2bguCcXJ9whijF2GqD | Will the winner for the Rugby World Cup 2023 be from the Northern Hemisphere? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-11T02:38:55 | 2023-10-28T14:33:41 | 2023-10-28T14:33:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3GaD20KEN5uLa5nuOxrs | ⚽️ Will France 🇫🇷 beat Germany 🇩🇪 in the 9/12 friendlies? | Last games were:
France-Ireland: 2-0
Germany-Japan: 1-4
I will resolve as follows:
France wins -> YES
Germany wins -> NO
Draw -> NO
Game interrupted until midnight at least or cancelled -> NA (even if replayed later) | 2023-09-11T00:52:12 | 2023-09-12T13:54:41 | 2023-09-12T13:54:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FyHb65WOOnWp1PtcQX7D | Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) be at or above $350 on Jan 1st 2025 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-11T00:48:34 | 2025-01-01T15:59:00 | 2025-01-10T08:14:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4gWD1cZn7lmkF5lOJcaK | Does Shinichi Mochizuki's proof of the abc conjecture include unfixable gaps? | Shinichi Mochizuki published a proof of the abc conjecture that has not been widely accepted by the math community. Peter Scholze pointed out to supposedly unfixable gaps in the proof.
This will resolve NO the conjecture is considered true at the end of 2024 either because:
The community accepts Mochizuki's proof as ... | 2023-09-11T00:08:53 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-06T00:42:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HzhQLt5ESC1MyZbHRSs0 | Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge... | 2023-09-10T23:49:02 | 2023-11-05T11:26:43 | 2023-11-05T11:26:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HYceW4Ra3BATgZxIfCeh | Will Lance Stroll finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge... | 2023-09-10T23:48:59 | 2023-11-05T11:27:10 | 2023-11-05T11:27:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bK5un6xzyc9bhxeZfpE0 | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)? | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge... | 2023-09-10T23:48:53 | 2023-11-05T11:32:20 | 2023-11-05T11:32:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O0O8mhkbyZxs8OKT5u2m | Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)? | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge... | 2023-09-10T23:48:53 | 2023-11-05T11:19:52 | 2023-11-05T11:19:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e3O5t5fFH1n91T1aX0bK | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)? | Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based ... | 2023-09-10T23:48:51 | 2023-11-05T11:31:25 | 2023-11-05T11:31:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EttOshIwjKFAHxFpr2zI | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Buffalo Bills? | The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 17:20 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that... | 2023-09-10T23:28:17 | 2023-11-05T20:40:46 | 2023-11-05T20:40:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WRDa45zlUazGeum5zG93 | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys? | The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 13:25 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Argum... | 2023-09-10T23:28:16 | 2023-11-05T19:21:12 | 2023-11-05T19:21:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lqlBns933BblfgR06ehB | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Chicago Bears? | The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments t... | 2023-09-10T23:28:11 | 2023-11-05T14:06:00 | 2023-11-05T14:06:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bOy1lBgVYdHy4727oUdS | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the New England Patriots beat the Washington Commanders? | The game will take place at Gillette Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:28:09 | 2023-11-05T14:05:03 | 2023-11-05T14:05:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7FM0eAnNitMofge5Lend | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Houston Texans beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? | The game will take place at NRG Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that re... | 2023-09-10T23:28:07 | 2023-11-05T14:03:36 | 2023-11-05T14:03:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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