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forecasting

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mani-m3fsw8DpopBdVw36KAod
Will OpenAI reach a settlement with the New York Times over potential copyright issues before June 30, 2024?
The market settles to 'yes' if a reputable source confirms that OpenAI and the New York Times have reached a settlement over potential copyright issues before June 30, 2024. If there's no such confirmation by this date, the market resolves to 'no'.
2023-09-15T08:59:27
2024-06-30T20:59:00
2024-07-01T16:02:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-heDzT95dUrPMnUN0FWqz
Will the New York Times file a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements by December 31, 2023?
The market resolves to 'yes' if a reputable source confirms that the 'New York Times' has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements before December 31, 2023. If no such lawsuit is filed by this date, the market resolves to 'no'.
2023-09-15T08:58:37
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T13:14:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LbtymgaYIpbEFeKcUcBW
Will Ukraine control the Bakhmut railway station by 2024?
As reported by https://deepstatemap.live/en . [link preview]
2023-09-15T08:54:14
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-05T05:15:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YleFhm7mAbAVzTW1dUmI
Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction will resolve as 'yes'. Any other outcome means the prediction is resolved as 'no'. Resolution is based on reports from these organizations.
2023-09-15T08:50:44
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-31T23:20:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AuWW4YrQXyuxXkExAeaA
Will Google successfully launch their AI news article writing product for public use by January 1, 2024?
This prediction will be resolved as 'yes' if Google announces the public release of their AI news writing product on their official website or to the mainstream media by 11:59 PM Pacific Standard Time (PST) on January 1, 2024. Any other outcome will result in the prediction being resolved as 'no'. The resolution source will be Google's official announcements or credible news agencies. "The tool, known internally by the working title Genesis, can take in information — details of current events, for example — and generate news content, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the product. One of the three people familiar with the product said that Google believed it could serve as a kind of personal assistant for journalists, automating some tasks to free up time for others, and that the company saw it as responsible technology that could help steer the publishing industry away from the pitfalls of generative A.I." https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/business/google-artificial-intelligence-news-articles.html
2023-09-15T08:48:34
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T21:20:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZStkXC7q2Si5Qq4WaQ5S
Will Judge Tanya Chutkan recuse herself from the Jan. 6 case that involves Donald Trump?
Market resolves as 'yes' if an official statement or report confirms Judge Tanya Chutkan's recusal from the case. The market will resolve by January 1, 2024.
2023-09-15T08:38:24
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T13:14:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IuoEnENoeMG6Yqskb1yO
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 18th September than it closed on 15th September?
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Monnday 18th September than it did on Friday 15th September? The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough! Some longer term FTSE 100 markets: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
2023-09-15T07:38:30
2023-09-18T08:30:00
2023-09-18T09:32:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1Pq5EgxvJEPHMW7Zm3Hs
Will the FDA approve MDMA as a treatment for PTSD by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-15T07:35:15
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T18:48:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9LBYx7PCNz1ZvpEkqpSF
GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024?
The intent of this question is to get at whether the open-source community, and/or random torrent pirates or darkweb people or whatever, will be able to download and then run a model as generally capable as GPT-4. (Assuming they have the right hardware). Doesn't have to be legal; if a hacker steals the model and sells it for $$$$ on the darkweb that still counts, if lots of different hackers on the darkweb are able to get it. (If instead it's a one-off sale to someone else who doesn't resell it, that would not count.) In case of conflict between the "spirit" and the "letter" of this question, I'll resolve in favor of the spirit.
2023-09-15T07:28:46
2024-07-22T19:46:50
2024-07-22T19:46:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-o8fW5iXWnQS9GYwluneP
Will iMessage integrate a chatbot by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-15T01:16:03
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T04:59:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lljP5EYzkbuAFecdcCmB
Will Facebook integrate a chatbot into the newsfeed by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-15T01:13:40
2023-12-31T20:11:32
2023-12-31T20:11:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nfmq8FjHNLZJdwusVHLy
Will Destiny share a panel with Vaush at Vidcon?
Destiny is currently listed for one panel: [image]Additional, Similar vidcon markets @/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau-13f22389cf88 <--- you are here @/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau @/Gen/will-someone-back-out-from-the-brid
2023-09-14T23:31:26
2023-09-30T07:29:00
2023-10-01T01:48:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3vHfvKNgybWeHLtl1188
Will Destiny share a panel with Vaush and Emma Vigeland at Vidcon?
Destiny is currently listed for one panel: [image]@/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau-13f22389cf88 @/Gen/will-destiny-share-a-panel-with-vau <-- you are here @/Gen/will-someone-back-out-from-the-brid
2023-09-14T23:30:37
2023-09-30T07:29:00
2023-10-01T01:48:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zaFy1weXYyRTNyJsB9E2
Will Jimmy Carter become the oldest currently-living former head of state?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-14T18:16:39
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-31T23:38:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KmUj9MJOmjPnYzg1pdhU
Will SAG strike negotiations restart by the end of September?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-14T17:13:11
2023-09-30T20:59:00
2023-10-01T09:34:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2Gf7gTZvN7OAgzWzs8Hx
Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 10 days from Sep 18-Sep 29?
We only care about the integer part cutting off any fraction without rounding.. We are only referring to the closing price. This is for a timespan of 10 days. If there is a holiday or other day without a unique closing price in the interval due to the market not having been open, we will extend the deadline to get another day until there are 10 days included. If after the week, from within the ten closing prices, every decimal digit appears at least once, this resolves YES. Otherwise NO. It can resolve early. Example prices: day 1: closes at 127.45 -> 1,2,7 seen day 2: closes at 139.9907 -> 1,2,3,7,9 seen Etc If all seen by the end, YES, otherwise NO
2023-09-14T16:14:04
2023-09-29T13:20:47
2023-09-29T13:20:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ogV4ysdFK3j2kU9X2Ude
Will the last digit of the S&P 500 closing price be even on 5+ of 10 days from Sep 18-Sep 29?
The last digit is the last whole number. We are only referring to the closing price This is for a timespan of 10 days. If there is a holiday or other day without a unique closing price in the interval, we will extend the deadline to get another day until there are 10 days included. Examples how to determine the "last digit": 123.4 => 3 567.9 => 7 Will the number be even at least 5 times?
2023-09-14T15:50:55
2023-09-29T13:18:53
2023-09-29T13:18:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Y544N5F8e15AY9GqoetM
Will Hasan Talk to Destiny on stream in 2024
Since Hasan isn't growing much, do we think that Hasan will Talk to Destiny on stream in 2024. most likely it would be so he could increase his viewership again.
2023-09-14T15:14:11
2025-01-01T20:12:30
2025-01-01T20:12:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-m9UMfKBTQXDNLGLC859D
Will the WGA strike end by October 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: https://www.wga.org/; WGAE: https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. [link preview]
2023-09-14T13:58:31
2023-09-27T10:06:44
2023-09-27T10:06:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ta5zKoS84tBlzNIMmzwU
Will the WGA strike end by September 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: https://www.wga.org/; WGAE: https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
2023-09-14T13:58:02
2023-09-27T10:05:58
2023-09-27T10:05:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-giXjYDActV8LKlp46o4x
Will SAG end strike by Nov 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG - AFTRA) strike ends by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SAG-AFTRA (e.g. https://www.sagaftra.org/news-events), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
2023-09-14T13:56:55
2023-11-11T07:27:36
2023-11-11T07:27:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kwKImDALBsKJsEk6z5Jt
Will SAG end strike by Oct 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG - AFTRA) strike ends by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SAG-AFTRA (e.g. https://www.sagaftra.org/news-events), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
2023-09-14T13:56:36
2023-10-16T06:22:55
2023-10-16T06:22:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ung0yBP8aQioYYEzsD5B
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Dec 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through Dec 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
2023-09-14T13:49:41
2023-10-03T13:50:19
2023-10-03T13:50:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-m5mwxjZzFFmSPEe7Ut9J
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Nov 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through Nov 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
2023-09-14T13:37:14
2023-10-03T13:50:02
2023-10-03T13:50:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-c5jNgEMu1f73K4FdSW0n
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
2023-09-14T13:36:53
2023-10-03T13:49:45
2023-10-03T13:49:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-58S4YHtzwGW4acIjOL2Q
Will a Democrat win the Kentucky gubernatorial election?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democrat wins the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 7, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. Determination of the winner of the 2023 U.S. Gubernatorial election for Kentucky will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2023 election results.
2023-09-14T13:35:47
2023-11-08T09:27:39
2023-11-08T09:27:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vKveySUB9kfKcu6aHNk5
⚡️ Will there be a blackout in Texas during 10/14 solar eclipse? 🌞🌘🔌
On Oct 14 there will be a solar eclipse in Texas around noon, when PV solar is at its peak. With 22GW of solar at stake, will it break the grid? I will resolve YES if there is a blackout affecting at least 10k households. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/texas-s-grid-faces-october-solar-eclipse-challenge-blackout-risk
2023-09-14T12:31:01
2023-10-14T15:57:59
2023-10-14T15:57:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-o5ExCq8rE8sLhBWbx2EO
Will President Lula appoint Flávio Dino to the Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) by the end of 2023?
Context Lula, the current President of Brazil, has signaled to close associates that Flávio Dino is his choice for the upcoming vacancy in the STF. This vacancy will be created due to the retirement of Rosa Weber, a female justice. There was an expectation that Lula would nominate a woman to maintain gender balance in the court. Other candidates include Bruno Dantas and Jorge Messias. Discussion The appointment to the STF is a significant political move with various influencing factors, such as public opinion, the political landscape, and the qualifications of the candidates. The expectation that Lula would nominate a woman adds another layer of complexity to his decision. Flávio Dino has been discreet about his candidacy, which could either work in his favor or against him. Sources Metrópoles Article Resolution Criteria The market will resolve as "Yes" if Flávio Dino is officially appointed to the STF by President Lula by the end of 2023. Official announcements or credible news reports will be considered for resolution.
2023-09-14T12:16:56
2023-11-27T09:28:28
2023-11-27T09:28:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-noZ9eGKF9PhsTshRPTub
Will Vladimir Putin visit North Korea before March 2024?
Between date of question creation September 2023 and last of February 2024. Resolves based on credible news reports. (https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/will-vladimir-putin-visit-north-kor)
2023-09-14T09:38:47
2024-03-03T15:35:55
2024-03-03T15:35:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6vespH8HmArvPyBeWvmm
Will MrBeast’s Squid Game video have half a billion views before the end of September?
MrBeast's most viewed YouTube video was a recreation of Squid Game, published on YouTube on 24 Nov 2021. As of the time of writing this question, the video has 496 million views. Will MrBeast's Squid Game video on YouTube achieve half a billion views before this month (September) ends? If timing becomes relevant, midnight PST will be the cutoff.
2023-09-14T09:38:08
2023-09-20T11:45:56
2023-09-20T11:45:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-aSBLsLBdHakRqZgZjvNt
Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee has >50% of all votes cast in the 2024 Presidential Election by the time the new President is inaugurated.
2023-09-14T09:28:27
2024-11-06T07:22:39
2024-11-06T07:22:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2i7amc0NL9lMwWoourCd
Will Vladimir Putin visit North Korea before 2025?
Between date of question creation September 2023 and Dec 31st 2024. Resolves based on credible news reports. (https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/will-vladimir-putin-visit-north-kor-25fc1299e5a2)
2023-09-13T22:22:54
2024-06-19T23:22:23
2024-06-19T23:22:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DT5O5R9daTjIkCvS36B7
Will a large-scale, Eliezer-Yudkowsky-approved AI alignment project be funded before 2025?
If Eliezer thinks the project is hopelessly misguided, that's no good. If he thinks the project isn't going to work but was at least a noble effort, that's sufficient to resolve this to YES. In other words the project should be something relativly similar to what he would have done with those resources if he were put in charge. (Or perhaps he says it's a better idea than what he would have thought of himself.) The total amount of funding must be at least $3 billion. In the event of gradual funding over time, this market can resolve YES if the project ever meets all three criteria at any point in its life.
2023-09-13T21:36:36
2025-01-01T23:59:00
2025-01-02T12:15:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UH2aArA7Qm4GwyvHD9mI
Will a large scale, government-backed AI alignment project be funded before 2025?
Purely private company endeavours do not count. At least 50% of the funding must come from one or more governments. The focus must be on alignment over capabilites. A dual focus is acceptible as long as there's a serious committment to alignment. The total amount of funding must be at least $3 billion. In the event of gradual funding over time, this market can resolve YES if the project ever meets all three criteria at any point in its life. For comparison, OpenAI's "Superalignment" probably meets the funding criterion, fails the government criterion, and (debatably) fails the alignment criterion.
2023-09-13T21:28:18
2025-01-01T23:59:00
2025-01-02T12:28:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bLg64gagaODWKJ35witN
Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on September 14th than it closed on September 13th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]
Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) Predictions close at ̶ ̶2̶p̶m̶ ̶E̶T̶ 1 3pm ET (7pm UTC) 1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!! Previous Close : [image]Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ at the end of the day. Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC BONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market. SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS [image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
2023-09-13T16:59:50
2023-09-14T12:00:00
2023-09-14T16:21:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZFdOelPxjHae2UpZUcfw
Will Sufjan Stevens new album 'Javelin' get an 8 or above on Pitchfork?
This market resolves YES if 'Javelin' by Sufjan Stevens gets a rating of 8 or above on Pitchfork. The market closes on Sunday after the album is released, as Pitchfork will likely release the review on Monday (I am open to changing the close date.) I'm creating this market because I am incapable of forming my own opinion! Tell me what to think! (https://www.youtube.com/embed/CjHG25QwYeg) (https://www.youtube.com/embed/OLeCIRC4taY)[Edit: Linked to Pitchfork]
2023-09-13T16:21:23
2023-10-04T22:07:11
2023-10-04T22:07:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NhKjMnd8V7dkdpDmRrsV
Will the U.S. inflation be 3.5% or less in September 2023?
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to September 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%, 3.6997%. Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.5% or less in September 2023? https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (307.19628) https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)
2023-09-13T15:21:51
2023-10-12T16:32:44
2023-10-12T16:32:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tzNW9bYDiPLoeldHZ7YM
Will Ivanka’s name appear on a ballot for any office by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-13T14:55:18
2024-12-31T15:27:52
2024-12-31T15:27:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eP2oNI94I6aLfi0Wz6MI
Will Don Jr appear on a ballot for any office by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-13T14:54:21
2024-12-31T15:07:49
2024-12-31T15:07:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v5xWz4AEyo8Mw7cwMWhO
Will an original work be in the top 10 grossing films in the US in 2023?
An "original work" is defined as either wholly original or derivative of a non-famous cultural product in another medium (e.g. an obscure novel turned into a film). Sequels, films in a cinematic universe (e.g. MCU), films based on a non-book famous cultural product (e.g. Barbie), do not count as an original work. Films about a person or group are original if they do not rely on a previous work about that person. So Oppenheimer does not count (it is based on American Prometheus), whereas Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) counts as original, as it is about a famous person but originally written. This question resolves by checking the films that makeup the top 10 grossing films in the US in 2023 on Box Office Mojo using calendar grosses. As of the time of writing this question, one film, Sound of Freedom, appears to qualify as original and is in the top 10 highest grossing films of the year thus far. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-an-original-work-be-in-the-top-75ff22c4d4c4)
2023-09-13T12:50:25
2023-12-31T21:37:16
2023-12-31T21:37:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-di77b3S1RDI5cByncd4N
Will Unity walk back their new “Runtime Fee” before the end of 2023?
Unity announced they will be charging developers a fee every time their game is installed. If this policy is still in place at the end of the year, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, it resolves YES. https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/unity-runtime-fee-policy-marc-whitten
2023-09-13T11:04:34
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-03T23:39:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-i4TBi474weysZfD683pI
Will the Covid Lab Leak Theory become truth by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-13T10:54:26
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-03-01T08:13:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sMW9Fqhd558RmrKCKaV3
The Factorio expansion will be released in 2024
Originally promised for 2022. https://www.factorio.com/blog/post/fff-367
2023-09-13T10:19:19
2024-10-21T15:22:16
2024-10-21T15:22:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WN1uklz0sVT4d4Iwh39l
Will Inter Miami beat Orlando City? ⚽ MLS
Inter Miami wins = yes / Orlando City wins or draws = no
2023-09-13T09:13:57
2023-09-24T20:31:33
2023-09-24T20:31:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BMz8dqOZokZYruVXc3jz
Will Inter Miami beat Toronto? ⚽ MLS
Inter Miami wins = yes / Toronto wins or draws = no
2023-09-13T09:09:43
2023-09-20T18:38:45
2023-09-20T18:38:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-h0XuIvALhmIshxoT7StK
Will Silksong be released in 2024?
Will Silksong, the sequel to Hollow Knight, be delayed to release after 2023, into 2024? If Silksong is released in 2023 OR 2025 onwards, market resolves as NO
2023-09-13T08:41:19
2024-12-31T08:39:00
2025-01-02T18:26:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2pSQOIUjCBygbS2KPvmi
Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the New York Giants in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
The midday slate of Week 2 games begins with two NFC teams recovering from bad performances, with the Cardinals nearly upsetting the Commanders and the Giants getting gobsmacked by the Cowboy on Sunday Night Football. Can the Cardinals take advantage of a recuperating Giants squad, or can Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley help the Giants to a victory? Yes - Cardinals win No - Giants win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-09-13T07:49:30
2023-09-17T16:17:03
2023-09-17T16:17:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hYxkA9PX8efrqHKgH0Fb
Will France recall iPhone 12s due to radiation before the end of the year?
https://www.reuters.com/technology/french-watchdog-halts-iphone-12-sales-over-too-high-radiation-minister-2023-09-12/ [link preview]"Apple is expected to respond within two weeks", he said, adding: "If they fail to do so, I am prepared to order a recall of all iPhones 12 in circulation. The rule is the same for everyone, including the digital giants." Will resolve YES if there is a recall of iPhone 12s in circulation in France before the end of the year.
2023-09-13T07:40:39
2023-12-31T19:58:13
2023-12-31T19:58:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Clsom3O9chCVnMclVVh9
Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Las Vegas Raiders in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
The second Sunday of the 2023 NFL season starts off with teams whose records are not what most expected, with the Bills hoping to recover from a Josh Allen disasterclass against the Raiders, who held on to beat the Broncos. Will Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs build a connection to beat the Raiders, or will Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams lead this squad to 2-0? Yes - Bills win No - Raiders win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-09-13T07:09:18
2023-09-17T13:04:55
2023-09-17T13:05:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vMdBk1iYQQlMq8WGS9s0
Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Green Bay Packers in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
The second Sunday of the 2023 NFL season starts off with two winners, with the Falcons hoping to keep things moving with their run game against the Packers - who crushed the spirit of Bears' fans through Jordan Love's 3 TDs. Will Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier help the Falcons stampede the Packers, or will Aaron Jones and Jordan Love cook for a 2-0 start in Green Bay? Yes - Falcons win No - Packers win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-09-13T07:04:16
2023-09-17T13:17:11
2023-09-17T13:17:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Gkmf7KkGvE8ZKscJtkkM
Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 2 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season starts off with a bang, with a 1-0 Eagles squad hoping to continue its revenge season against a 0-1 Vikings squad hoping to recover from a stunning loss to the Buccaneers to start the season. Will Jalen Hurts be able to guide the Eagles to another victory, or will Kirk Cousins and his group of weapons cook up their first victory of the season? Yes - Eagles win No - Vikings win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-09-13T06:50:23
2023-09-14T20:21:55
2023-09-14T20:22:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Gbfb3vI2LDZnNDmp9I0s
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Utah defeat USC?
Kickoff: October 21, 2023 - Time TBD Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, California
2023-09-13T00:52:23
2023-10-21T20:30:00
2023-10-21T20:35:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bneofKCp8CsYRAshwKn4
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Penn State defeat Ohio State?
Kickoff: Saturday, October 21, 2023 - 12 noon EDT Ohio Stadium - Columbus, Ohio
2023-09-13T00:45:02
2023-10-21T13:00:00
2023-10-21T13:52:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-d4sLHbXc42jUBmqKxVCJ
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Ohio State defeat Michigan?
Kickoff: Saturday, November 25, 2023 - 12 noon EST Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
2023-09-13T00:40:12
2023-11-25T12:52:45
2023-11-25T12:52:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oqRQdVGG33KvQlywk98K
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will USC defeat Notre Dame?
Kickoff: October 14, 2023 - TBD Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana
2023-09-13T00:37:36
2023-10-14T20:00:00
2023-10-15T00:26:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QQoBnSHvAUOcoe1LUoFj
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Alabama defeat Texas A&M?
Kickoff: October 7, 2023 - 2:30 PM CDT Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
2023-09-13T00:35:03
2023-10-07T16:30:00
2023-10-07T18:05:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WnHLIhIZu8PHNokzdBdV
Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 12th October show positive growth?
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 12th October.. This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (August in this case). Will this reading show positive growth? Resolution notes: A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant Here are some markets on other UK economic stats: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-b6da6df2bc61 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-4d2aed160dd9
2023-09-12T22:14:08
2023-10-11T23:20:01
2023-10-11T23:20:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lF0UhPIOKlQaJuXzo5W8
Will Russia launch a North Korean satellite by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-12T21:34:41
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:53:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jFSkp3FdIIrKdnIkJ5L3
Will the 118th Congress vote on an article of impeachment against Joe Biden?
Must be a vote of the full House.
2023-09-12T17:04:52
2025-01-06T20:59:00
2025-01-09T15:06:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2ayv97mxIwj0gMLScGNL
Will Tim Scott suspend his Presidential Campaign between now and Halloween?
He's not handling the pressure particularly well. If he pulls a Ross Perot and gets out but then later gets back in, this market still resolves yes. Any formal announcement from him or his campaign about suspending his candidancy resolves the market yes.
2023-09-12T15:31:45
2023-10-31T20:59:00
2023-10-31T21:02:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CFqEQBKYptGdITHJWcUG
Does "Graphene Energy Harvesting" work?
Researchers at the University of Arkansas claim to have found a way to harvest energy from heat (not heat gradients) using graphene and a nonlinear circuit. See here: https://news.uark.edu/articles/64925/scientists-design-novel-nonlinear-circuit-to-harvest-clean-power-using-graphene https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.108.024130 / https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.09083 https://arkansasresearch.uark.edu/the-power-of-motion-harvesting-energy-from-freestanding-graphene/ https://web.archive.org/web/20220715163820/https://www.uark.edu/determined/features/tiny-but-mighty/index.php https://www.ntsinnovations.com/graphene-energy-harvesting I was pretty sure this would violate the laws of thermodynamics. They argue that it doesn't using reasoning I don't understand. I will say that it "works" and resolve YES if external trustworthy organizations determine that their technology is in fact able to extract useful work from ambient heat (i.e. not heat gradients, ambient radiation, etc, and not by releasing energy added in the production process in some way) by close. Otherwise this resolves NO. As this is somewhat subjective I won't trade in this market. Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - The resolution will be made in 24 hours unless there are objections. (AI summary of creator comment)
2023-09-12T14:39:59
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-02T11:02:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PfRoExFLVXQ78B5ut60N
LK-99 will be added to Wikipedia's list of scientific errors and frauds before 2025
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_experimental_errors_and_frauds_in_physics It must be on the page for at least two weeks
2023-09-12T13:32:39
2024-03-09T17:55:47
2024-03-09T17:55:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iUA9Ddc0CVYiNthwVluW
Will a large scale Alignment Project like The Omega Protocol be funded before 2025?
Will an organization or government fund a project that construct an AI containment zone where we can safely create AGI and possibly Superintelligence? Some theorize that we can use AGI to independently generate candidate alignment procedures which we could verify safe using a combination of top scientists and the other AGIs in containment. https://chriscanal.substack.com/p/the-omega-protocol-another-manhattan [link preview]
2023-09-12T12:44:09
2025-01-01T21:59:00
2025-01-14T11:41:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ec1ITvSSkBCSTWZWodGZ
Will Unity fully revert their new "Runtime Fee" policy by the end of September?
Today we found out that Unity is introducing a disasterous "Runtime Fee" policy. Will they walk it back and reverse this descision? At the end of the month if they have not announced a reversal of the policy this market resolves NO. Otherwise at the end of the month this market resolves YES. Clarification from the comments: "The key thing is that whatever they do it has to feel like a total walkback and not just a slight downgrade / sidegrade into something PR viable. At a minimum no installation/runtime fees before we even need to think about it." https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/unity-to-start-charging-fee-pegged-to-game-installs [link preview]
2023-09-12T11:40:55
2023-09-30T23:59:00
2023-10-01T00:07:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rrh5L4J0TbiHEOihEaMC
Biden resigns in his first term.
Resolves to YES if Biden resigns in his first term; NO otherwise. Resolves to NO if he dies during his first term. Resolves on Jan 21, 2025. Relevant information: https://electionbettingodds.com/BidenResigns.html [link preview]
2023-09-12T10:35:20
2025-01-21T20:59:00
2025-01-23T13:58:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-98GRaWnDj7c8LJUeSVSQ
Will a Democrat win the popular vote in ALL of the following presidential elections: 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040
For additional context, here's the popular vote percentages in the U.S. Presidential elections going back to 1960. Note, the numbers are from ChatGPT, I verified several but not all of them. 2020: - Dem (Joe Biden) - 51.3% (81.2 M) - Rep (Donald Trump) - 46.8% (74.2 M) - All Other - 2.0% (3.1 M) - Total votes cast: ~158.5 M - Winning Margin: 4.5% (7 M) - Dem 2016: - Dem (Hillary Clinton) - 48.2% (65.8 M) - Rep (Donald Trump) - 46.1% (62.9 M) - All Other - 5.7% (7.8 M) - Total votes cast: ~136.5 M - Winning Margin: 2.1% (2.9 M) - Dem 2012: - Dem (Barack Obama) - 51.1% (65.9 M) - Rep (Mitt Romney) - 47.2% (60.9 M) - All Other - 1.7% (2.2 M) - Total votes cast: ~129 M - Winning Margin: 3.9% (5 M) - Dem 2008: - Dem (Barack Obama) - 52.9% (69.5 M) - Rep (John McCain) - 45.7% (59.9 M) - All Other - 1.4% (1.8 M) - Total votes cast: ~131.2 M - Winning Margin: 7.2% (9.6 M) - Dem 2004: - Dem (John Kerry) - 48.3% (59.0 M) - Rep (George W. Bush) - 50.7% (62.0 M) - All Other - 1.0% (1.2 M) - Total votes cast: ~122.2 M - Winning Margin: 2.4% (3 M) - Rep 2000: - Dem (Al Gore) - 48.4% (50.9 M) - Rep (George W. Bush) - 47.9% (50.4 M) - All Other - 3.7% (3.9 M) - Total votes cast: ~105.2 M - Winning Margin: 0.5% (0.5 M) - Dem 1996: - Dem (Bill Clinton) - 49.2% (47.4 M) - Rep (Bob Dole) - 40.7% (39.1 M) - All Other - 10.1% (9.7 M) - Total votes cast: ~96.2 M - Winning Margin: 8.5% (8.3 M) - Dem 1992: - Dem (Bill Clinton) - 43.0% (44.9 M) - Rep (George H. W. Bush) - 37.4% (39.1 M) - All Other - 19.6% (20.4 M) - Total votes cast: ~104.4 M - Winning Margin: 5.6% (5.8 M) - Dem 1988: - Dem (Michael Dukakis) - 45.6% (41.8 M) - Rep (George H. W. Bush) - 53.4% (48.9 M) - All Other - 1.0% (0.9 M) - Total votes cast: ~91.6 M - Winning Margin: 7.8% (7.1 M) - Rep 1984: - Dem (Walter Mondale) - 40.6% (37.6 M) - Rep (Ronald Reagan) - 58.8% (54.5 M) - All Other - 0.6% (0.6 M) - Total votes cast: ~92.7 M - Winning Margin: 18.2% (16.9 M) - Rep 1980: - Dem (Jimmy Carter) - 41.0% (35.5 M) - Rep (Ronald Reagan) - 50.7% (43.9 M) - All Other - 8.3% (7.2 M) - Total votes cast: ~86.6 M - Winning Margin: 9.7% (8.4 M) - Rep 1976: - Dem (Jimmy Carter) - 50.1% (40.8 M) - Rep (Gerald Ford) - 48.0% (39.1 M) - All Other - 1.9% (1.5 M) - Total votes cast: ~81.4 M - Winning Margin: 2.1% (1.7 M) - Dem 1972: - Dem (George McGovern) - 37.5% (29.2 M) - Rep (Richard Nixon) - 60.7% (47.2 M) - All Other - 1.8% (1.4 M) - Total votes cast: ~77.8 M - Winning Margin: 23.2% (18 M) - Rep 1968: - Dem (Hubert Humphrey) - 42.7% (31.3 M) - Rep (Richard Nixon) - 43.4% (31.8 M) - All Other - 13.9% (10.2 M) - Total votes cast: ~73.3 M - Winning Margin: 0.7% (0.5 M) - Rep 1964: - Dem (Lyndon B. Johnson) - 61.1% (43.1 M) - Rep (Barry Goldwater) - 38.5% (27.2 M) - All Other - 0.4% (0.3 M) - Total votes cast: ~70.6 M - Winning Margin: 22.6% (15.9 M) - Dem 1960: - Dem (John F. Kennedy) - 49.7% (34.2 M) - Rep (Richard Nixon) - 49.5% (34.1 M) - All Other - 0.8% (0.6 M) - Total votes cast: ~68.9 M - Winning Margin: 0.2% (0.1 M) - Dem Note: Percentages and vote counts are approximate and may not add up to 100% or the total number of votes due to rounding.
2023-09-12T10:00:21
2024-11-18T15:07:52
2024-11-18T15:07:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-577c69mCFAxyyb04gkJA
Will Biden get impeached?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-12T08:57:19
2023-09-19T11:29:00
2023-10-04T16:21:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pQMp8rISDVuMxupFktn5
Will Joe Biden be impeached by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-12T08:53:42
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T06:34:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6XepvSxpzDc6RWPHpOaX
Will AAPL drop below $170 in September 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-12T07:59:31
2023-09-27T13:32:37
2023-09-27T13:32:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FSMU4UOJvTjyCmIt7SJH
Will Aaron Rodgers play again before the end of the regular season?
From week 2 till the postseason, will Aaron Rodgers play a down as QB for the New York Jets.
2023-09-12T07:02:53
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-09T13:14:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PjlaSU6Gde9sju5fyGkB
Will the Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots on Sunday night?
New England is at home, Miami is favorded by 7.
2023-09-12T06:59:51
2023-09-17T20:59:00
2023-09-18T04:21:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DvtHKNAZtwJQcXBk1QAo
Will the term "Vivekmentum" or "Vivek-mentum" appear in the New York Times from 9/12/2023 to 10/12/2023?
Can Vivek get more press, or has his star faded? It is appears in an online story before 11:59 pm local NYC time on 10/12/2023, this market resolves yes. Must appear exactly as in the quotes.
2023-09-12T06:20:55
2023-10-12T20:59:00
2023-10-13T04:07:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BFVXkVxAqmL81qOERLkW
⚽️ Will France 🇫🇷 beat the Netherlands 🇳🇱 on 10/13 in the euro qualifiers?
🗓️ October 13 2023 at 8:45pm Netherlands — France Game 6 euro qualifiers I will resolve as follows: France wins -> YES Netherlands wins -> NO Draw -> NO Game interrupted/cancelled -> NA (even if replayed later)
2023-09-12T00:51:02
2023-10-13T13:46:34
2023-10-13T13:46:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qdQKWJo8hiQzPKbX0t46
Will all iPhones released at the Apple event have a USB-C port?
September 2023 event. Resolves N/A if no iPhones are released.
2023-09-12T00:43:01
2023-09-12T11:28:08
2023-09-12T11:28:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yUXvUS6st7v6ZhnP46wR
Will Bluesky be decentralized in practice before the end of 2024?
Bluesky is microblogging social network and an initiative to develop a protocol for decentralized social networking. Its flagship service, bsky.app was launched as a beta in early 2023. Despite being based on a decentralized protocol, Bluesky remains centralized in practice as no third-party services that can interact with bsky.app have gained traction. Will this change before the end of 2024? This question resolves to YES if there is a service that meets the following criteria: The service is not controlled by Bluesky. The service can interact with bsky.app in terms of things such as following and replies between users on both services. (This need not be through the AT Protocol, in case bsky.app integrates with the Fediverse, for example.) The service allows users to create accounts separate from bsky.app. (That is, it is not simply an alternative "view" to an account on bsky.app. In the AT Protocol federation architecture this would likely mean a separate PDS.) The service has at least 100 users. (If multiple such services exist, they must have a combined total of at least 100 users.) Credible evidence of meeting these criteria emerges before 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2025. If no such service exists, then question resolves to NO. I may provide liquidity subsidies but will not otherwise trade in this question.
2023-09-11T21:06:20
2024-07-21T13:00:24
2024-07-21T13:00:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SqVKnO4ju5gP1lzZZ5J6
Will a cyber attack against self driving vehicles intentionally kill 100+ people in a day before end of 2024?
A bad actor has to do a hack of self-driving systems which kills 100+ people before eoy 2024 in a single day. Counts: Taking over cars and intentionally crashing or driving off bridges or into planes at airports Locking people in Taking people to inhospitable environments Doesn't count Disabling support of self driving system updates Inserting a bug in code which causes rare deaths later In general, for yes the attack should be done live and with malice. If other situations happen I'll attempt to first determine realitys truth then fit it into the examples above appropriately.
2023-09-11T16:58:04
2025-01-01T22:59:00
2025-01-02T16:37:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hQ0vrLJ2saN9NVw2hNYU
Will Elon Musk endorse a presidential candidate by the end of October 2023?
Resolves as YES only if there is an official endorsement. Saying only flattering things will resolve as NO. Need not use the word endorsement, a commitment to support or "s/he has my vote" will suffice.
2023-09-11T15:44:19
2023-10-31T20:59:00
2023-11-01T03:15:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-E4xZOmrVNUDhjDEYK4vj
Will the Fed raise interest rates in the October-November 2023 meeting?
The FOMC is scheduled to meet Oct 31st to Nov 1st. This market resolves YES if at this meeting the FOMC decides to increase the federal funds rate target range. If the meeting is delayed, the market will resolve instead on any change to the target range announced in November, or NO if there is no such announcement by end of November. In the unlikely case that the FOMC adjusts the upper and lower limits of the federal funds rate target range by different amounts, this market will resolve on whether the midpoint of the range moves upwards or not.
2023-09-11T15:31:11
2023-11-01T13:25:54
2023-11-01T13:25:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ad91VAk7TfN22VwXUC42
Will Destiny and Sam Harris have a conversation before March 2024?
Either irl or on a video call
2023-09-11T13:16:32
2024-02-29T22:23:07
2024-02-29T22:23:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs
Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?
Background: https://archive.ph/2023.09.09-191732/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-shutdown-what-does-it-mean-2023-09-08/ Resolves YES if Congress is unable to pass the bills or a Continuing Resolution prior to midnight September 30th
2023-09-11T09:39:56
2023-10-01T16:56:17
2023-10-01T16:56:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ueM1gfB4WqSPhIHjtTFN
Will Italy beat Ukraine? ⚽ UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifiers
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-11T08:37:16
2023-09-12T13:39:07
2023-09-12T13:39:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8zTcvS8ltJrJqguGjjEP
Will Kim Jong Un go abroad in 2024?
As reported by credible media. Resolves NO if Kim Jong Un is not alive, and has not yet been abroad in the given year.
2023-09-11T06:00:26
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-04T05:49:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BxXAlGN70GCJ95aDrhBC
Will Elon Musk father ANOTHER child in 2023?
This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk. If no new spawn of Elon Musk have been reported by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then the market will resolve to “No”. Any child must have been born by the market end date, and pregnancy reports will not be sufficient to resolve the market. If a child is not reported or announced by the end date and is later discovered to have been born prior to the end date, this will have no bearing on market resolution. For the purposes of this market, a child will be considered to be discovered if they are not one of the eleven children confirmed at the time of this market’s conception, regardless of when the child was born. Name changes of existing children and legally adopted last names of any possible new children will not affect the resolution of this market. [image]-So far, list of Musk's children include: twins (2, from Shivon Zilis) Exa Dark Sideræl, X AE A-XII, Techno Mechanicus (3, Grimes) Kai, Saxon and Damian (3, Justine Wilson) Griffin, Nevada Alexander and Vivian (3, Justine Wilson)
2023-09-11T05:54:29
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T11:00:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6z82zF5oT9TBLgUk3D7i
Will the Miami Dolphins drown the New England Patriots?
YES if Dolphins win. NO if Patriots win or tie.
2023-09-11T05:24:40
2023-09-17T20:59:00
2023-09-17T20:59:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-oANxnvtpIYFrqKCbsfec
Will the New York Jets destroy the Dallas Cowboys?
YES if Jets win. NO if Cowboys win or tie.
2023-09-11T05:18:56
2023-09-17T20:59:00
2023-09-17T20:59:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HFqkByxSP5L1YK1LHFZn
Will the Chicago Bears maul the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
YES if Bears win. NO if Buccaneers win or tie.
2023-09-11T05:16:58
2023-09-17T20:58:19
2023-09-17T20:58:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wq2bguCcXJ9whijF2GqD
Will the winner for the Rugby World Cup 2023 be from the Northern Hemisphere?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-11T02:38:55
2023-10-28T14:33:41
2023-10-28T14:33:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3GaD20KEN5uLa5nuOxrs
⚽️ Will France 🇫🇷 beat Germany 🇩🇪 in the 9/12 friendlies?
Last games were: France-Ireland: 2-0 Germany-Japan: 1-4 I will resolve as follows: France wins -> YES Germany wins -> NO Draw -> NO Game interrupted until midnight at least or cancelled -> NA (even if replayed later)
2023-09-11T00:52:12
2023-09-12T13:54:41
2023-09-12T13:54:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FyHb65WOOnWp1PtcQX7D
Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) be at or above $350 on Jan 1st 2025
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-09-11T00:48:34
2025-01-01T15:59:00
2025-01-10T08:14:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4gWD1cZn7lmkF5lOJcaK
Does Shinichi Mochizuki's proof of the abc conjecture include unfixable gaps?
Shinichi Mochizuki published a proof of the abc conjecture that has not been widely accepted by the math community. Peter Scholze pointed out to supposedly unfixable gaps in the proof. This will resolve NO the conjecture is considered true at the end of 2024 either because: The community accepts Mochizuki's proof as correct (possibly after minor adjustments by him or other mathematicians) Mochizuki fixes the gaps in the demonstration Someone else fixes the gaps but the proof is still based predominantly on the original paper. This will resolve as YES if the community still considers that this problem is open. I will resolve doing my own survey of the community in good faith. https://www.quantamagazine.org/titans-of-mathematics-clash-over-epic-proof-of-abc-conjecture-20180920/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-mathematical-proof-is-a-social-compact-20230831/ [link preview]
2023-09-11T00:08:53
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-06T00:42:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HzhQLt5ESC1MyZbHRSs0
Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)?
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023. If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:49:02
2023-11-05T11:26:43
2023-11-05T11:26:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HYceW4Ra3BATgZxIfCeh
Will Lance Stroll finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)?
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023. If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:48:59
2023-11-05T11:27:10
2023-11-05T11:27:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bK5un6xzyc9bhxeZfpE0
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)?
A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023. If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:48:53
2023-11-05T11:32:20
2023-11-05T11:32:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-O0O8mhkbyZxs8OKT5u2m
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)?
A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023. If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:48:53
2023-11-05T11:19:52
2023-11-05T11:19:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-e3O5t5fFH1n91T1aX0bK
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)?
Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023. If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:48:51
2023-11-05T11:31:25
2023-11-05T11:31:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EttOshIwjKFAHxFpr2zI
NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Buffalo Bills?
The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 17:20 PST on November 5, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:28:17
2023-11-05T20:40:46
2023-11-05T20:40:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WRDa45zlUazGeum5zG93
NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys?
The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 13:25 PST on November 5, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:28:16
2023-11-05T19:21:12
2023-11-05T19:21:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lqlBns933BblfgR06ehB
NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Chicago Bears?
The game will take place at Caesars Superdome at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:28:11
2023-11-05T14:06:00
2023-11-05T14:06:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bOy1lBgVYdHy4727oUdS
NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the New England Patriots beat the Washington Commanders?
The game will take place at Gillette Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:28:09
2023-11-05T14:05:03
2023-11-05T14:05:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7FM0eAnNitMofge5Lend
NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Houston Texans beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The game will take place at NRG Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well.
2023-09-10T23:28:07
2023-11-05T14:03:36
2023-11-05T14:03:36
yes
MANIFOLD