id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-XqLbsKoMvRZBVfggr19n | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Los Angeles Rams? | The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that ... | 2023-09-10T23:28:05 | 2023-11-05T13:45:56 | 2023-11-05T13:45:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-80i8fGLYjF0vOd91KidN | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Seattle Seahawks? | The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:28:02 | 2023-11-05T14:05:21 | 2023-11-05T14:05:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ofAJU7EBOrOeYPIffMfr | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Minnesota Vikings? | The game will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Argumen... | 2023-09-10T23:28:00 | 2023-11-05T14:04:22 | 2023-11-05T14:04:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SRyIbPky6U1CVOXBEO7V | NFL Week 9 (Nov 5): Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins? | The game will take place at Deutsche Bank Park at 06:30 PST on November 5, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments ... | 2023-09-10T23:27:57 | 2023-11-05T09:39:55 | 2023-11-05T09:39:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UigJz3Yp0Npke4mGzcPC | NFL Week 9 (Nov 2): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Tennessee Titans? | The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 17:15 PDT on November 2, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:27:55 | 2023-11-02T20:39:22 | 2023-11-02T20:39:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S7lyn4EoDM5avf71Ct5E | NFL Week 8 (Oct 30): Will the Detroit Lions beat the Las Vegas Raiders? | The game will take place at Ford Field at 17:15 PDT on October 30, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rel... | 2023-09-10T23:27:54 | 2023-10-30T20:16:41 | 2023-10-30T20:16:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZdbnHnuV4AuAXO6VBwWs | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Chicago Bears? | The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 17:20 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that r... | 2023-09-10T23:27:51 | 2023-10-29T20:23:02 | 2023-10-29T20:23:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mKSxmih1N5iom64DcQDd | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Cincinnati Bengals? | The game will take place at Levi's® Stadium at 13:25 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments tha... | 2023-09-10T23:27:50 | 2023-10-29T16:29:49 | 2023-10-29T16:29:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qL3witNmNIfjnlgA1vWM | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs? | The game will take place at Empower Field at Mile High at 13:25 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Ar... | 2023-09-10T23:27:48 | 2023-10-29T17:34:07 | 2023-10-29T17:34:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8O5OfULAAwU8t5ma4vXK | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the Baltimore Ravens? | The game will take place at State Farm Stadium at 13:25 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments ... | 2023-09-10T23:27:46 | 2023-10-29T17:32:35 | 2023-10-29T17:32:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WanPmbKqnMKR4TdZdjvV | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Cleveland Browns? | The game will take place at Lumen Field at 13:05 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that re... | 2023-09-10T23:27:45 | 2023-10-29T17:38:23 | 2023-10-29T17:38:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tq4RkHB8XU6QmbCF01mG | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Washington Commanders beat the Philadelphia Eagles? | The game will take place at FedExField at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rel... | 2023-09-10T23:27:43 | 2023-10-29T14:01:24 | 2023-10-29T14:01:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rreeGIl5y76tvdICgPQ7 | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Jacksonville Jaguars? | The game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:27:40 | 2023-10-29T14:00:58 | 2023-10-29T14:00:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4ldlIJCAMQxipPOhFMMa | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the New York Giants beat the New York Jets? | The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments tha... | 2023-09-10T23:27:38 | 2023-10-29T13:56:46 | 2023-10-29T13:56:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AY5O3nT3dpj7aZdQ0xSE | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots? | The game will take place at Hard Rock Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments t... | 2023-09-10T23:27:36 | 2023-10-29T14:00:34 | 2023-10-29T14:00:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UBllyVHOWzTica0LbX5j | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings? | The game will take place at Lambeau Field at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that ... | 2023-09-10T23:27:33 | 2023-10-29T13:59:48 | 2023-10-29T13:59:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eISysPonQB8GVcKaT37Q | NFL Week 8 (Oct 29): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Los Angeles Rams? | The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 29, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that r... | 2023-09-10T23:27:31 | 2023-10-29T13:57:56 | 2023-10-29T13:57:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hGI8o2xo8fb7XyH3UJfb | NFL Week 7 (Oct 23): Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the San Francisco 49ers? | The game will take place at U.S. Bank Stadium at 17:15 PDT on October 23, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments t... | 2023-09-10T23:27:24 | 2023-10-23T20:37:00 | 2023-10-23T20:37:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-24VHvR5PFMOy1JGWBgiZ | NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Miami Dolphins? | The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 17:20 PDT on October 22, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Argum... | 2023-09-10T23:27:23 | 2023-10-22T20:16:56 | 2023-10-22T20:16:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5JVT5DmNF7EpGfv8kB4P | NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Denver Broncos beat the Green Bay Packers? | The game will take place at Empower Field at Mile High at 13:25 PDT on October 22, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Ar... | 2023-09-10T23:27:19 | 2023-10-22T16:26:06 | 2023-10-22T16:26:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pIEAjrXmFhNh20DbWgq4 | NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? | The game will take place at SoFi Stadium at 13:05 PDT on October 22, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that r... | 2023-09-10T23:27:16 | 2023-10-22T16:14:00 | 2023-10-22T16:14:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xsvulPoXja36QDj9uxdF | NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the New York Giants beat the Washington Commanders? | The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 22, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments tha... | 2023-09-10T23:27:12 | 2023-10-22T13:14:39 | 2023-10-22T13:14:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dr3fmcqsjJFf7M0Bkslz | NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills? | The game will take place at Gillette Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 22, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:27:10 | 2023-10-22T13:04:49 | 2023-10-22T13:04:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BsJsEd5JWoCJBCnC9BMn | NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Cleveland Browns? | The game will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 22, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments t... | 2023-09-10T23:27:09 | 2023-10-22T13:44:31 | 2023-10-22T13:44:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-giFT7qRoOS0gU3xXirMR | NFL Week 7 (Oct 22): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Detroit Lions? | The game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 22, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:27:05 | 2023-10-22T13:03:31 | 2023-10-22T13:03:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-veGYmjCPi8IVbC4zk1X8 | NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Giants? | The game will take place at Highmark Stadium at 17:20 PDT on October 15, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:27:00 | 2023-10-15T20:38:24 | 2023-10-15T20:38:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FXmcGcac5ZB0J0EQJ64I | NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the New York Jets beat the Philadelphia Eagles? | The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 13:25 PDT on October 15, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments tha... | 2023-09-10T23:26:58 | 2023-10-15T16:41:33 | 2023-10-15T16:41:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OEhpPKza3GT55LKgKFOa | NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the New England Patriots? | The game will take place at Allegiant Stadium at 13:05 PDT on October 15, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments t... | 2023-09-10T23:26:53 | 2023-10-15T16:14:13 | 2023-10-15T16:14:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T1tsNYlZ0L9Cc4yI6CGi | NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Carolina Panthers? | The game will take place at Hard Rock Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 15, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments t... | 2023-09-10T23:26:50 | 2023-10-15T13:23:11 | 2023-10-15T13:23:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IZGKgVzgQtKyVjIEGRec | NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Cleveland Browns beat the San Francisco 49ers? | The game will take place at Cleveland Browns Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 15, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Argu... | 2023-09-10T23:26:44 | 2023-10-15T13:40:19 | 2023-10-15T13:40:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-x8iOkbBAfgCVCFx3SBiA | NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings? | The game will take place at Soldier Field at 10:00 PDT on October 15, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that ... | 2023-09-10T23:26:40 | 2023-10-15T13:21:54 | 2023-10-15T13:21:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UISKpriXH2m1JZes15YC | NFL Week 5 (Oct 8): Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Houston Texans? | The game will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 8, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Argument... | 2023-09-10T23:26:13 | 2023-10-08T13:07:12 | 2023-10-08T13:07:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lOVmD21m7yLfbXQdg4Yj | NFL Week 5 (Oct 8): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Jacksonville Jaguars? | The game will take place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at 06:30 PDT on October 8, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Argu... | 2023-09-10T23:26:11 | 2023-10-08T12:07:09 | 2023-10-08T12:07:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C7vASsZ62j1jrPUkgOPS | NFL Week 4 (Oct 2): Will the New York Giants beat the Seattle Seahawks? | The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 17:15 PDT on October 2, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that... | 2023-09-10T23:25:32 | 2023-10-02T22:24:32 | 2023-10-02T22:24:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Tp8fCWydHSMCvHNkpqdZ | NFL Week 4 (Oct 1): Will the New York Jets beat the Kansas City Chiefs? | The game will take place at MetLife Stadium at 17:20 PDT on October 1, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that... | 2023-09-10T23:25:31 | 2023-10-01T20:20:27 | 2023-10-01T20:20:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f7EiKPOKIJxDilYlHijW | NFL Week 4 (Oct 1): Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the New England Patriots? | The game will take place at AT&T Stadium at 13:25 PDT on October 1, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments that re... | 2023-09-10T23:25:26 | 2023-10-01T16:25:57 | 2023-10-01T16:25:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cDHigyvQNr6OjUHEgxti | NFL Week 4 (Oct 1): Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders? | The game will take place at Lincoln Financial Field at 10:00 PDT on October 1, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Argume... | 2023-09-10T23:25:21 | 2023-10-01T13:56:23 | 2023-10-01T13:56:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IgWVWBaZ85Ln6q295CY6 | NFL Week 4 (Oct 1): Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Los Angeles Rams? | The game will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 1, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Arguments th... | 2023-09-10T23:25:18 | 2023-10-01T14:37:20 | 2023-10-01T14:37:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jID6rWr47ANJpgR2EExi | NFL Week 4 (Oct 1): Will the Carolina Panthers beat the Minnesota Vikings? | The game will take place at Bank of America Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 1, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on _the spirit of the question._ Argume... | 2023-09-10T23:25:10 | 2023-10-01T13:02:24 | 2023-10-01T13:02:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kjSXsm1lkC4uJUBDVyYW | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Florida State defeat Clemson? | Kickoff: September 23, 2023 - 12 noon EDT
Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-the-ap-top-five-te-8a95ab97b4ab | 2023-09-10T22:04:50 | 2023-09-23T12:37:57 | 2023-09-23T12:37:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3fh1Z4rKdxXR8701hfzO | Will Tyreek Hill score 15 touchdowns this season? | Includes post season games. | 2023-09-10T21:37:15 | 2024-01-13T20:22:21 | 2024-01-13T20:22:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BQYDfGbkgtHMLMpejVNH | Will any open-source model achieve GPT-4 level performance on MMLU through 2024? | GPT-4 currently leads the Multi-task language understanding benchmark [1] at 86.4% [2]. Will any open-source language model achieve at least 86.4% on MMLU average?
A leaderboard of open-source models can be found here. | 2023-09-10T13:26:59 | 2024-12-08T16:03:35 | 2024-12-08T16:03:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MGpD9xKuRvba2LxkDoSx | Will Logan Paul beat Dillon Danis on their upcoming fight? | Resolves to Yes if Logan Win
And NO if he looses.... | 2023-09-10T12:14:38 | 2023-10-14T15:32:46 | 2023-10-14T15:32:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vR2o2odWKhjLq5wxafox | Will any nominee for the 2024 presidential election be removed from the ballot before the election? | For example, Joe Biden is nominated and then dies, or Donald Trump is nominated but then a court bans him from running or he chooses to withdraw.
Only counts nominees from the democrats and republicans, not third parties. Being removed in any state is sufficient to resolve YES. If the candidate is physically on the ba... | 2023-09-10T11:41:03 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T18:47:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uNQzy4gbZKaS86Eitb0F | Will more acres burn during the 2023 California wildfire season than burned in 2022? | 2022: 331,360 acres burned according to
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2022
[link preview] | 2023-09-10T10:08:31 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-06T14:54:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0bvLBIaXwd3ddMccnnmX | Will Trump's margin in republican primary polls fall below 20pp before the Iowa caucuses? | This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]Resolves based on difference to second place candidate on FiveThirtyEight: https://projects.fivethirtyei... | 2023-09-10T09:23:02 | 2024-01-22T10:31:49 | 2024-01-22T10:31:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fN12OYGS30DGubdZuKEC | Will Vladimir Putin attend the G20 in Brazil in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-10T08:57:13 | 2024-11-20T00:05:43 | 2024-11-20T00:05:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-A5cwZlX7o9i3YVaBImNG | Will the United Auto Workers union strike major car makers this week? | Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers union, has threatened General Motors, Ford and Stellantis with a strike if an agreement is not reached before the contracts with the union expires at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday (September 15, 2023).
Resolves YES if any of the three above mentioned contracts are... | 2023-09-10T08:55:09 | 2023-09-14T20:59:00 | 2023-09-14T21:04:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fWAqoSHqn4jU884aY1uS | Will Astrobotic Technology's Peregrine lander successfully land on the moon? | Astrobotic Technology is a private spaceflight company. The Peregrine lander has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon. It should attempt a landing February 23, 2024.
For a successful mission the Peregrine lander needs to... | 2023-09-10T07:20:42 | 2024-01-17T19:24:17 | 2024-01-17T19:24:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eWITNQOMqOI34hIY0ubS | Will Intuitive Machines' IM-1 mission successfully land on the moon? | Intuitive Machines is a private spaceflight company. The IM-1 mission has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon.
For a successful mission the Nova-C lander needs to soft-land on the moon such that the landing does not int... | 2023-09-10T07:17:49 | 2024-03-01T05:01:15 | 2024-03-01T05:01:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ei4QYKr8SH8I5Hstcn9U | Will Tesla unveil their Robotaxi car design by the end of 2025? | Not deliver, but show the design of the future Robotaxi car (most likely without steering wheel, etc...) | 2023-09-10T05:09:40 | 2024-10-30T23:05:18 | 2024-10-30T23:05:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qY8wpKS5yQA85XIAswlg | Will a national majority of voters vote YES in the upcoming Voice referendum in Australia? | This market resolves YES if, in the upcoming referendum on an indigenous Voice to parliament, a national majority of voters vote YES, according to official sources such as the Australian Electoral Commission.
A national majority is one of the requirements for a referendum to pass—the other being that the majority of v... | 2023-09-10T00:02:54 | 2023-10-14T03:24:31 | 2023-10-14T03:24:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mHrYApj6lkqDFiaAmxW4 | Will Trump face off against Biden in the 2024 presidential election? | Resolves YES if they are competing in the presidential election. Resolves NO if either of them arent candidates for their party, or either die beforehand, etc.
Resolves based off of:
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
and
https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-tru... | 2023-09-09T21:07:35 | 2024-07-24T13:20:15 | 2024-07-24T13:20:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VIlKwn5qmA34CJ41419n | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Colorado defeat Oregon? | Kickoff: September 23, 2023 - 12:30 PM PDT
Autzen Stadium - Eugene, Oregon
Colorado next week:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-colorad
Pac-12 Week 4 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-sta
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-arizona
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-california-defeat
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-colora... | 2023-09-09T18:59:49 | 2023-09-23T16:30:00 | 2023-09-23T18:46:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WuaMJLUUSujc6E8ew5Xr | Will the "Destiny is a bad judge of character" allegations be addressed on stream (by him) by the end of the year | Context: Concerning Merc and any other wild cards from hereon till the end of 2023 | 2023-09-09T18:15:12 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-13T10:07:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-keZCwDVCtX1ZogIPSiwz | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T18:12:25 | 2024-01-07T16:17:21 | 2024-01-07T16:17:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NNcW1IHF8nVoYaYtoWrd | Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T18:10:44 | 2024-01-07T16:17:17 | 2024-01-07T16:17:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VK4Lyb97OqwkDQB9Lmq2 | Will the Minnesota Vikings win the NFC North in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T18:10:13 | 2023-12-24T13:18:12 | 2023-12-24T13:18:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nzpjNqGkrkyzR6UMcVvX | Will the Detroit Lions win the NFC North in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T18:08:13 | 2023-12-24T13:17:57 | 2023-12-24T13:18:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P5qXbTFmh4LKzglN4zSM | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the NFC South in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T18:05:16 | 2024-01-07T12:38:37 | 2024-01-07T12:39:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ED9YDCYrpYaOPKw2kCCU | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T18:01:34 | 2023-12-31T16:25:28 | 2023-12-31T16:26:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8aBUhLQgYpauEXlCB1WG | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T17:57:59 | 2024-01-07T12:58:26 | 2024-01-07T12:59:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xrPycipR2B6NiTHnQytQ | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T17:53:03 | 2023-12-31T13:14:17 | 2023-12-31T13:14:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gz7ahzs5Pr7DZ6aaFdbq | Will the Miami Dolphins win the AFC East in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T17:51:04 | 2024-01-07T20:23:02 | 2024-01-07T20:23:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-apci5BIZb2H7RrNZ3S4I | Will the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East in the 2023 NFL Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T17:50:36 | 2024-01-07T20:23:03 | 2024-01-07T20:23:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jX9wl9HI3SdxKNC3jHJO | Will Democrat VP nominee be a woman? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if a woman wins the 2024 nomination of the Democrat Party for U.S. vice president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/
Any replacement of the nominee befo... | 2023-09-09T11:56:55 | 2024-08-18T11:45:36 | 2024-08-18T11:45:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iPvoaUFzLKaVNNhMSYFt | Will Republican VP nominee be a woman? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if a woman wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. vice president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.
Any replacement of the nominee before el... | 2023-09-09T11:56:21 | 2024-07-16T09:18:06 | 2024-07-16T09:18:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VeidijCRJ78NoiToLniz | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its Person of the Year, who "for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year." While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically "The Computer" in 1982 and "Endangered Earth" in 1988.
S... | 2023-09-09T11:50:00 | 2023-12-06T11:04:59 | 2023-12-06T11:04:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C1rLYEIUUmnJbJcdOw0u | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 15, 2023? | Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 15, 2023, credible sources report that the Israeli High Court has issued a ruling on the "reasonableness" law. The ruling must either uphold or strike down the law in whole or in part; a ruling not on the merits, such as freezing or delaying impl... | 2023-09-09T11:44:40 | 2023-10-15T21:59:00 | 2023-10-16T07:10:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-svOhUIj1M415eDRD1zMG | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before September 19, 2023, credible sources report that the United Auto Workers (UAW) union has announced that they have called a strike against one or more of the Big Three Detroit automakers: General Motors, Ford, or Stellantis.
Fine Print
An announcement o... | 2023-09-09T11:33:54 | 2023-09-15T09:18:16 | 2023-09-15T09:18:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NiKDOmXtNU6UuX7Mo6w5 | Will Nasa land on the moon before 2025? | resolves yes if Nasa launches a craft that lands on the moon before 2025. The craft does not have to be manned. Crashing into the moon does not count as landing. | 2023-09-09T11:33:50 | 2024-02-23T01:26:10 | 2024-02-23T01:26:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zGsgcD15OgNTUcRO0Tr0 | Will a SpaceX Starship be refuelled in orbit by the end of 2024? | For the question to resolve "YES" a Starship must receive propellant from another spacecraft:
A test counts.
Any amount of propellant transferred counts.
It must survive the refuelling. | 2023-09-09T09:28:27 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:15:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QuctXGdwp1vMISS7byNn | Will Mitch McConnell 'zone out' again by November 1? | [link preview] | 2023-09-09T09:24:44 | 2023-11-01T19:52:02 | 2023-11-01T19:52:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v4uXdQHU0VFksoecHm5C | Will weed be rescheduled by the end of 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The pri... | 2023-09-09T09:21:29 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-05T21:40:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YJihIo8J40S3FJtWay4z | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the November 8, 2023 Republican Presidential debate? | A GOP Presidential debate will be held on November 8, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be ... | 2023-09-09T05:27:40 | 2023-11-09T20:59:00 | 2023-11-10T03:47:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GIo2sgHIkVYkp6Xych4d | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses? | On January 15, 2024, the Iowa caucuses will be the first contest in the 2024 Republican Presidential primary elections.
This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to win or tie for the most delegates at the end of January. It resolves to N/A if the caucuses aren't held by then or if there... | 2023-09-09T05:20:10 | 2024-01-16T04:09:14 | 2024-01-16T04:09:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w9GAs0KlS0v2vjYoHcPm | Will Bitcoin hit 35k at the end of 2023 ? | There are rumors on X, That btc can hit 35 at the end of 2023. How you see it | 2023-09-09T03:48:07 | 2023-12-31T10:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:36:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-E3wx44PwCGwUu8hN9AA6 | Google Trends: Will "AI" search term popularity peak again in 2023? | This question will resolve YES, if global search rank for "AI" in Google Trends hits relative value 100, after creation of this market and before Dec 31 2023.
Which means: if "AI" will be at its all-time-high again?
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=AI&hl=en
[image][image] | 2023-09-09T01:39:23 | 2023-11-27T11:01:51 | 2023-11-27T11:01:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BaqsvJMJxxiA6VPR8IJu | Will there be another coup d'état in Africa before the end of this year 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-09T01:21:03 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-08T01:14:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IW7qenqPoXhTD9EVQhML | [Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Hurricane Lee bring Tropical Storm force winds to Bermuda? | Background
Hurricane Lee is a classic Cape Verde hurricane that formed off West Africa, in a process that often produces some of the strongest North Atlantic hurricanes. After an explosive growth into a Category 5 hurricane over favourable conditions, it has weakened somewhat into a Category 3 hurricane as of Septembe... | 2023-09-08T23:54:56 | 2023-09-14T07:00:00 | 2023-09-14T07:01:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aeek93pUurzhkoO9i2cW | Will Anthony Fantano put "Rich Men North of Richmond" in his 10 worst songs of 2023? | Every year, Anthony Fantano makes a list of his 10 worst songs (see 2022). Frequently, he puts conservative leaning songs on this list. Rich Men North of Richmond is a viral conservative-coded song that Fantano has criticized.
If the song makes his 2023 worst songs list, this market will resolve YES. If Fantano lists... | 2023-09-08T21:06:53 | 2023-12-20T21:47:41 | 2023-12-20T21:47:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-reFepmefBxAtbbg53Fxl | Will the S&P 500 close higher on September 11 than it closed on September 8? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of September (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a priz... | 2023-09-08T20:08:42 | 2023-09-11T11:00:00 | 2023-09-11T14:42:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TXq8sy2OCdOvUgYiBjEL | Will Djokovic beat Medvedev this Sunday? | In the USO Finals. | 2023-09-08T19:57:41 | 2023-09-10T17:35:40 | 2023-09-10T17:35:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-upQ9fjzk1L0OIhz7vpMI | Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024? | Will resolve YES if the junta loses control of 2 of the 3 largest cities. | 2023-09-08T16:43:20 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:05:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0PolOVgMrOz0JzVbvgaZ | Parlay: Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Finals and Joe Biden win re-election in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-08T13:20:00 | 2024-09-03T20:38:19 | 2024-09-03T20:38:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VrFlQR7dkfOGXq8Rkffj | Will Lionel Messi play in Argentina's World Cup qualifier vs Bolivia on September 12th? | https://mlsmultiplex.com/2023/09/08/messis-uncertainty-injury-need-rest/
Subbed out of match v Ecuador on 7th in 88th minute due to fatigue. Playing against Bolivia in La Paz, worst ranked team (80+ in FIFA ranking) so is possible he may rest.
Highly invested in this market because I will be in La Paz then...
[link ... | 2023-09-08T12:00:18 | 2023-09-12T20:35:05 | 2023-09-12T20:35:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VQzEGJrqHYDbfAOYDEcf | Will Bitcoin drop below US$24,000 again before the end of the year? | Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below 24,000$ at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created Sept 8th)
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
[link preview] | 2023-09-08T10:16:58 | 2024-01-01T20:19:32 | 2024-01-01T20:19:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KacWjqOP1t9oSt7TmGW5 | Will there be a non-Apple app store available on iOS by April? | Apple is considered a "gatekeeper" according to the Digital Markets Act. That means they need to open up until 6 March 2024.
Resolves YES if there is an alternative app to Apple's AppStore which is as easy to install and use. E.g. no need to know about IPA files.
Resolves NO in April.
Reducing the availability of an... | 2023-09-08T09:45:33 | 2024-03-31T14:59:00 | 2024-04-01T00:39:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fVPkiUKVlH2dh5wgkOjo | Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic Party ticket? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-08T09:14:43 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-01T11:35:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wrAHG4Cv9DRpu23LMQsz | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 11th September than it closed on 8th September? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Monday 11th September than it did on Friday 8th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrays... | 2023-09-08T08:10:26 | 2023-09-11T08:30:00 | 2023-09-11T10:22:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bv5Y8ItzsZ9SYrHlqqT2 | Will Jumbo-Visma make 1, 2, 3 at the end of La Vuelta a España 2023? | Resolves YES if all the riders at the final podium (first, second and third place of the general classification) of La Vuelta a España 2023 belong to Jumbo-Visma. | 2023-09-08T07:06:21 | 2023-09-17T20:59:00 | 2023-09-18T05:09:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nlbpsPsjBalAUYYxU5Zt | Will ChatGPT plugins be available to non-plus users by June, 2024? | Resolves YES if at least some plugins are available to all ChatGPT users before June 1st, 2024 | 2023-09-08T03:06:05 | 2024-06-01T20:59:00 | 2024-08-20T23:01:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jY4XcfpHj8YMUDT8rzYI | Will the 2023 Speed Chess Championship final be between Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen? | Hikaru is the top seed. Carlsen is the 2nd seed. More info about the bracket:
https://www.chess.com/events/info/2023-speed-chess-championship
[link preview] | 2023-09-07T22:11:04 | 2023-09-20T16:16:23 | 2023-09-20T16:16:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pnCPMlxP26gmSo1wubVd | Will the Kansas City Chiefs also lose their second game to be 0 in 2? | As per https://www.nfl.com/
[link preview] | 2023-09-07T21:13:55 | 2023-09-17T21:42:03 | 2023-09-17T21:42:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SyAinXhxJV8P0wHHWy5V | Will Messi score against Bolivia? ⚽ World Cup Qualifiers | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-09-07T20:51:35 | 2023-09-12T13:33:45 | 2023-09-12T13:33:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p0EiS5u0cvEo1aHdFlyi | 📖Will @ScottAlexander write a classic (over 1000 likes) before 2025? | Resolves YES if a post made on Astral Codex Ten between 2023-09-08 and 2024-12-31 (inclusive) receives more than 1000 likes by the end of 2024. UTC times will be used. The post will need to have this many likes long enough for me to confirm. Only posts by Scott count. For example, the book review contest submissions do... | 2023-09-07T18:46:48 | 2024-01-14T15:26:52 | 2024-01-14T15:26:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qYaQ0GGkgGKV3dMneA53 | Will a 2024 presidential candidate die prior to the election? | To resolve YES, a noteworthy candidate listed on the site below must die prior to Election Day, November 5, 2024.
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2024 | 2023-09-07T17:52:39 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T16:02:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FrBB8Lkc0E5VDbQN154O | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Buffalo Bills? (Jan 7) | [image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets! | 2023-09-07T17:20:46 | 2024-01-07T20:24:15 | 2024-01-07T20:24:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-izkuZ9Z9qGoihbeIpshS | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Baltimore Ravens? | [image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets! | 2023-09-07T17:19:49 | 2023-12-31T14:56:17 | 2023-12-31T14:56:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qWxujkN9zvijjrTJEETG | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Dallas Cowboys? | [image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets! | 2023-09-07T17:19:13 | 2023-12-24T16:29:19 | 2023-12-24T16:29:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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