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mani-ImOUlpVr39Ahy5IgyIdW
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New York Jets? (Dec 17)
|
[image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets!
|
2023-09-07T17:18:20
|
2023-12-17T13:29:10
|
2023-12-17T13:29:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hwGmhxppbKweW3SNi1jS
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Washington Commanders?
|
[image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets!
|
2023-09-07T17:17:05
|
2023-12-03T18:59:35
|
2023-12-03T18:59:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YLtxOjGMVuJwuwyiIf0Q
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New York Jets? (Nov 24)
|
[image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets!
|
2023-09-07T17:16:26
|
2023-11-24T16:17:38
|
2023-11-24T16:17:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZVQ4y6eqTSzFnLZY6L9j
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Las Vegas Raiders?
|
[image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets!
|
2023-09-07T17:15:25
|
2023-11-19T20:59:00
|
2023-11-20T04:36:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-COzVGggmgYZuQxjOE18a
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Kansas City Chiefs?
|
[image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets!
|
2023-09-07T17:14:02
|
2023-11-05T09:55:10
|
2023-11-05T09:55:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8gGkLCMU3SyJorWWnAjK
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New England Patriots? (Oct 29)
|
[image][markets]
|
2023-09-07T17:12:08
|
2023-10-29T17:00:41
|
2023-10-29T17:00:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nyidQpZt3k4PJgzvoQfS
|
Have searches for ChatGPT peaked this year?
|
Resolves NO if according to google trends, either searches for "chatgpt" or "chat gpt" (case insensitive) surpass their respective maximums before 2024. Otherwise, resolves YES.
|
2023-09-07T16:53:27
|
2023-10-02T08:59:37
|
2023-10-02T08:59:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3dbrJTZ53tzBPVRfBnE3
|
Will Hunter Biden spend any time in federal prison while his father is president?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-07T15:47:24
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:30:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yNjswVJzJFqxA62XPzRP
|
Will Joe Biden pardon or commute the sentence of Hunter Biden?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-07T15:45:43
|
2024-12-02T09:06:52
|
2024-12-02T09:06:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lwg4m77AkvZyfEjdAfFA
|
Will Azerbaijan attack Armenia in Sep 2023?
|
YES if military troops of Azerbaijan will cross at least for a 1 day official Armenian border on any OSINT map before 1st of October.
P.S. Previously occupied or contested terrirories (~ 50 km2) are not counted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29
|
2023-09-07T14:18:23
|
2023-09-30T14:59:00
|
2023-10-01T03:42:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6gIlXz3A1n6B2prlKSPs
|
Will the S&P 500 have days where it both increases and decreases by over 5% until EOY 2023?
|
i.e. there is a day it increases >5%, and another day it decreases by 5%
|
2023-09-07T11:36:31
|
2024-08-05T23:43:05
|
2024-08-05T23:43:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ckiTC4cr6JLFz5I4GQb9
|
Will Kyiv remain in the 10 least livable cities in 2024?
|
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) annually ranks cities by livability, releasing a free summary report every summer. The Global Livability Index 2023 ranked Kyiv at 165th out of 173 cities "owing to the damage the war has done to its stability, infrastructure and general liveability." Here are all of the 10 least livable cities of 2023:
164. Douala (Cameroon)
165. Kyiv (Ukraine)
166. Harare (Zimbabwe)
167. Dhaka (Bangladesh)
168. Port Moresby (Papua New Guinea)
169. Karachi (Pakistan)
170. Lagos (Nigeria)
171. Algiers (Algeria)
172. Tripoli (Libya)
173. Damascus (Syria)
Will Kyiv remain among the bottom 10 least livable cities in the EIU's Global Livability Index 2024?
|
2023-09-07T11:20:36
|
2024-08-08T19:30:40
|
2024-08-08T19:30:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NpHb3Li4YNwC2VJ0TXUQ
|
Will Argentina adopt the US dollar as legal tender in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if at any point from January 1, 2024 to before the close date, the US dollar is Argentina's main legally-accepted currency.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-06/milei-in-talks-to-win-foreign-financing-to-dollarize-argentina
|
2023-09-07T09:16:50
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:29:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AJWNnfKj2kYg4GTwYcRc
|
Will there be either a peace agreement or a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan before 2024?
|
Ci sarà una guerra o un trattato di pace tra Armenia e Azerbaijan prima del 2024?
|
2023-09-07T07:18:23
|
2024-01-01T08:14:41
|
2024-01-01T08:14:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pssu6Qm6IRvKMIc4yTaQ
|
Will Moscow be attacked by Ukrainian drones until the end of September 10?
|
This question resolves YES if any Moscow airport (Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo) will activate "Plan Cover" at least once until 23:59:59 (UTC+3) 10.09.2023.
|
2023-09-07T06:12:18
|
2023-09-09T22:00:00
|
2023-09-10T02:07:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n5wBAK4p9pRgY7SCPOb9
|
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Hurricane Lee go on to strike Bermuda?
|
Background
Hurricane Lee is a classic Cape Verde hurricane that formed off West Africa, in a process that often produces some of the strongest North Atlantic hurricanes. Moving over unusally warm oceans and enjoying favourable atmospheric conditions, it quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday afternoon and is expected to continue intensifying, as it moves towards the Lesser Antilles.
According to long-term forecasts as of September 6, it is not expected to make landfall for the next week, and a low pressure trough moving off the East Coast of the US would steer the hurricane north before it reaches the Bahamas and US coasts. Current ECWMF ensemble predictions suggest a 10-25% chance for the hurricane to pass within 1 latitude or longitude of Bermuda, forecasted to be around September 14-15.
[image]Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Hurricane Lee brings hurricane-level winds (>64 knots, >74 mph) to any part of Bermuda while maintaining tropical characteristics.
Resolves NO if Hurricane Lee dissipates or becomes extratropical before the fulfilment of the condition for YES.
Will resolve based on Bermuda Weather Service and/or the National Hurricane Center data.
Here is a similar market with a lower wind speed requirement:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SarkanyVar/m200-subsidy-will-hurricane-lee-bri)
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.
|
2023-09-06T23:31:30
|
2023-09-16T06:00:00
|
2023-09-16T06:13:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8dCaMFC7nOfVtmjjL8bf
|
Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander land successfully
|
https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/japans-moon-lander-mission-to-be-launched-on-thursday
https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1699575561243259015
[link preview]Will Japans moon lander mission land successfully on the moon?
https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/science/japan-launches-moon-sniper-lunar-lander-slim-to-space-8928261/
date says 4-6 months from september for landing
Resolves NO if no telemetry received after landing.
Resolves YES if telemetry receveived after landing. (it can have a scuffed landing, but if it still survives, and sends back data, it resolves YES)
|
2023-09-06T21:38:21
|
2024-01-19T14:25:32
|
2024-01-19T14:25:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-flodZOPiTxPQdsi3oWoT
|
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of 2023.
|
This resolves as yes if Starship launches from the Americas and crosses the 180th meridian before landing, crashing, or breaking up.
For example, launching in an Easterly direction from Texas and breaking up on reentry near Hawaii would qualify.
I created this market because of uncertainty about what constitutes "going into orbit" if Starship completes less than one revolution around the earth.
UTC is used to determine the end of 2023. If there is a difference between the date line and the 180th meridian, it is the 180th meridian that applies. If debris from a breakup falls on both sides, I will attempt to determine where the majority by weight landed. The fate of the Superheavy booster is not taken into account.
|
2023-09-06T21:27:04
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T04:39:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8ud6HuMGyyPZa6REoL0p
|
Will destiny reach 1 million subs by the end of 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-06T20:31:04
|
2025-01-01T03:35:22
|
2025-01-01T03:35:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f04DGWakETpxkMB51BiH
|
Will destiny reach 750k subs by the end of 2023
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-06T20:28:12
|
2023-12-31T05:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:26:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CSQ81JGg7NsSylaJyDzw
|
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before September 9, 2023?
|
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Will he be assassinated before September 9, 2023?
|
2023-09-06T18:37:34
|
2023-09-09T16:59:00
|
2023-09-14T03:33:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yihwMmQsJTKMeVCQ5jKz
|
💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2023?
|
Resolves based on the number of drugs listed on this page.
|
2023-09-06T15:02:23
|
2023-11-18T04:28:03
|
2023-11-18T04:28:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-db9rifB1RJKAWA8fA8KI
|
Will x.ai launch a product in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-06T14:25:02
|
2023-11-04T07:32:06
|
2023-11-04T07:34:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G5NqU0uVtM3fmuzxAbEV
|
Will Hurricane Lee reach Category 5 strength?
|
Resolves YES if at any point Hurricane Lee reaches Category 5 strength as defined by the National Hurricane Center.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/weather/hurricane-lee-potential-path-atlantic-climate/index.html
[link preview]
|
2023-09-06T14:07:48
|
2023-09-07T20:32:52
|
2023-09-07T20:32:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Uxof0J8Gi7CEJQed1sKL
|
Will Hunter Biden be federally indicted or charged before end of September?
|
Resolves YES if US federal criminal charges are brought against Hunter Biden in September 2023 (Eastern time). Otherwise NO.
Background: https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/politics/hunter-biden-gun-charges-indictment/index.html
Details:
This question will use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications.
Criminal charges may or may not be brought by grand jury indictment, either counts for this question.
State charges do not count for this question.
|
2023-09-06T13:41:06
|
2023-09-14T10:59:56
|
2023-09-14T10:59:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yfRXRMjawkF5fMzlM043
|
Will Joe Biden be re-elected in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-06T10:56:35
|
2024-11-06T16:44:47
|
2024-11-06T16:44:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kBHZ6oUajLNsTcYdCd2J
|
Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on February 14, 2024?
|
If in the locality the tornado is occurring in it is the 14th, then it counts.
|
2023-09-06T10:40:56
|
2024-02-15T07:44:21
|
2024-02-15T07:44:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yARAaI6B384cRHvqbLGc
|
Will Elon Musk sell twitter by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-06T10:01:22
|
2024-12-31T12:41:00
|
2025-01-02T22:00:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7eoNkza1SvE8V3JZ3ApC
|
Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in September?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a major hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between September 1 and September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at major hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when a major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a major hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Resolves as https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-major-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-september
[link preview]
|
2023-09-06T09:49:11
|
2023-10-01T09:00:41
|
2023-10-01T09:00:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wi4FC3j4q0N4DhpagHzS
|
Will Uruguay beat Argentina? ⚽ World Cup Qualifiers
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-06T07:44:33
|
2023-11-16T18:01:35
|
2023-11-16T18:01:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y0zg6pfT5o4Rj9t04IT5
|
Will Argentina defeat both Ecuador and Bolivia this month? ⚽ World Cup Qualifiers
|
Yes - Argentina wins both matches
No - Argentina loses a match or draws
|
2023-09-06T07:42:26
|
2023-09-12T14:53:23
|
2023-09-12T14:53:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8GPkA4lyeqyvBfphAPum
|
Will a bill to rename India to Bharat be introduced in 2023?
|
"Speculation is swirling that a bill to formally rename the country could be submitted at a special parliamentary session the government has scheduled for Sept. 18 to 22" -- Nikkei https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/India-or-Bharat-G20-dinner-invitation-triggers-name-change-row
Note that any bill proposing changes that would switch any official reference to India to Bharat would count. (And the bill does not need to pass.)
[link preview]
|
2023-09-06T02:51:45
|
2024-01-01T00:10:31
|
2024-01-01T00:10:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AuoLerfTnvWrzQpCTQnb
|
Will Storm Lee develop into a Category 5 Hurricane?
|
This market will resolve YES if current Tropical Storm Lee develops into a category 5 hurricane, otherwise NO. Resolution source is the national hurricane center. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
|
2023-09-06T00:27:38
|
2023-09-07T23:28:37
|
2023-09-07T23:28:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FII4cxDDZTQlV1R7WUcS
|
[Arm IPO] Will the share price close above $49.00 on the first day of trading?
|
Arm has posted an F-1 filing with the SEC. A recent update sets the target IPO price between $47.00 and $51.00.
If the share price on the first day of trading closes above $49.00, this question will resolve YES.
Notes:
The close price will be retrieved from Yahoo Finance.
This question's "close date" will be updated once the IPO date is known.
|
2023-09-05T21:19:39
|
2023-09-16T08:01:50
|
2023-09-16T08:01:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i3Mi2s0t4cOQSxV3Lbwo
|
Will Destiny talk to Nick Fuentes in September?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-05T19:37:18
|
2023-09-30T19:36:00
|
2023-09-30T20:00:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w2EzYzALuN3GuM4FjvtW
|
Will the Wikipedia page for India be renamed to Bharat or Bharata by the end of 2024?
|
https://apnews.com/article/india-sanskrit-name-bharat-modi-g20-72782ba81aa67dcf7e197a98fec9b5f5
Also resolves yes if the name is "Republic of Bharat" or similar.
In the unlikely event that the page title contains both names, this resolves based on which one is primary. So "India (Republic of Bharat)" would resolve NO; "Bharata (formerly India)" would resolve yes.
I will be relatively lenient to other spellings, as long as it clearly refers to the sanskrit word भारत (I don't speak sanskrit so will defer to media consensus).
For a (probably) lower bar and a shorter fuse, check @/DanMan314/will-the-twitter-account-pmoindia-b
Thanks to @ScottLawrence who I stole the criteria from, go bet on his market: @/ScottLawrence/will-the-wikipedia-page-for-turkey
[link preview]
|
2023-09-05T16:09:26
|
2025-01-01T11:09:27
|
2025-01-01T11:09:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uRLtQOuUEFnGHwsjcUTe
|
Will Republicans win 52 or more Senate seats as a result of the 2024 election?
|
Independents that caucus with Republicans count towards the total. Republicans currently hold 49 seats and would need to gain 3 seats to resolve this as YES.
My main goal in this market is to get counterparties as I think I have quite different probabilities than other users on this question, and as such I will be betting in this market. In the event of a resolution ambiguity, I will contact any trustworthy-ish users and resolve to their majority opinion as opposed to my own, which could be biased due to me holding shares.
|
2023-09-05T15:32:11
|
2024-11-20T10:34:18
|
2024-11-20T10:34:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YWDr8gp186gApGNOG9MG
|
Will Nate Silver make 7 or more markets on Manifold by the end of 2023?
|
Must be reasonably sure it's his account.
|
2023-09-05T14:33:57
|
2023-12-31T18:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:03:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BTt7sUBEK3n9Zh5zU5sm
|
🏈 2023 NCAA Football: Will Colorado have a winning season?
|
2023 NCAA Football:
The University of Colorado Boulder football team hired Deion Sanders as head coach who routed their roster and made quite the debut against TCU.
Last year they were one of the worst teams in college football with a 1-11 record.
Will the Buffs end the regular season with a winning record? (strictly greater than 0.500)
|
2023-09-05T13:39:19
|
2023-11-26T22:59:00
|
2023-11-27T08:51:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bYA6xae86cpKkh0fTyyu
|
Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?
|
As with my other related questions, by default will judge based on the leaderboard here, based on Elo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
[image]Chatbot Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by lmsys
Discover amazing ML apps made by the community
If Google deplolys a new model in 2024 that might or might not qualify, but it is not yet ranked on the leaderboard at year's end due to time required for evaluation, I will hold off on resolving until that has happened until a maximum of February 1, 2025.
If Google releases a model that the public, or least those who have signed up for its early testing programs, cannot access by the deadline, that does not count - I will use my ability to access it absent any special treatment as a proxy here, or if I get special treatment I will ask others.
As with other questions, I reserve the right to correct what I see as an egregious error in either direction, either by twitter poll or outright fiat, including if the model is effectively available but does not appear on the leaderboard for logistical reasons.
[link preview](This is the EOY '24 version of the market here: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-google-have-the-best-llm-by-eo)
Clarification (in response to Daniel): This resolves on the spot if Google has the best model - it's 'by EOY' not 'at EOY.'
|
2023-09-05T12:57:50
|
2024-08-01T11:47:52
|
2024-08-01T11:47:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Kp75dntrbxwfoKFia9dE
|
Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2023?
|
As with my other related questions, by default will judge based on the leaderboard here, based on Elo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
[link preview]If Google deplolys a new model in 2023 that might or might not qualify, but it is not yet ranked on the leaderboard at year's end due to time required for evaluation, I will hold off on resolving until that has happened until a maximum of February 1.
If Google releases a model that the public, or least those who have signed up for its early testing programs, cannot access by the deadline, that does not count - I will use my ability to access it absent any special treatment as a proxy here, or if I get special treatment I will ask others.
As with other questions, I reserve the right to correct what I see as an egregious error in either direction, either by twitter poll or outright fiat, including if the model is effectively available but does not appear on the leaderboard for logistical reasons.
(Same clarification as the related market: If Google does take the top spot or becomes clearly best, this resolves to YES on the spot, this is by EOY not 'at' EOY.)
|
2023-09-05T12:56:13
|
2023-12-31T16:24:50
|
2023-12-31T16:24:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ye6PAQRzTlPnJAYsj2mO
|
Will the Buffalo Bills trample the New York Jets?
|
YES if Bills win. NO if Jets win or tie.
|
2023-09-05T12:44:40
|
2023-09-11T20:19:17
|
2023-09-11T20:19:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9CkjBE1gKPOxwzHM9ycJ
|
Will ANY 2020 red states/districts flip blue in 2024?
|
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
Donald Trump's coalition in 2020 consisted of the traditional Republican strongholds in the country's mostly rural interior, the Deep South (minus GA), Texas, and the newly emboldened GOP stronghold of Florida. This unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your political inclinations) did not result in enough Electoral College votes to score him a victory.
The full list of states/districts that voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election were:
Alabama,
Alaska,
Arkansas,
Florida,
Idaho,
Indiana,
Iowa,
Kansas,
Kentucky,
Louisiana,
Maine-02,
Mississippi,
Missouri,
Montana,
Nebraska-AL, Nebraska-01, Nebraska-03
North Carolina,
North Dakota,
Ohio,
Oklahoma,
South Carolina,
South Dakota,
Tennessee,
Texas,
Utah,
West Virginia, and
Wyoming.
Come 2024, the Republicans will be facing a new challenge in both holding together their existing coalition of states together while also hoping to score some key flips in other states to unseat incumbent Joe Biden.
Will they be able to pull it off? If so, market will resolve as NO. If they lose ANY of the above states/districts to the Democrats, market will resolve as YES.
|
2023-09-05T12:07:06
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T19:32:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kK9gia7bebMH4OfmInCo
|
Will destiny still be playing Satisfactory by the end of October?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-05T11:14:46
|
2023-10-31T23:49:31
|
2023-10-31T23:49:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bNzrbC3iYfbYmcAf82BD
|
Will President Biden contract COVID this year 2023
|
Various news sources are reporting that First Lady Jill Biden, who is fully vaccinated and boosted, has tested positive for COVID-19. So far the President hasn't tested positive for the virus. Will President Biden contract COVID-19 this year?
YES If Biden will contract COVID-19 within the year 2023. NO If Biden will not contract COVID-19 within the year 2023.
|
2023-09-05T11:14:01
|
2023-12-30T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:14:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OmUienmht3VGBUizcpXl
|
Will the Detroit Lions destroy the Kansas City Chiefs?
|
YES if Detroit Lions win. NO if Kansas City Chiefs win or tie.
|
2023-09-05T11:08:11
|
2023-09-07T20:31:38
|
2023-09-07T20:31:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rdwDC7N3RmpYVarvcSJy
|
Will the last digit of the S&P 500 closing price be even on 2+ days from Sep 11-Sep 15?
|
The last digit is the last whole number
Only referring to the closing price
Will the number be even at least 2 times?
For example 123.4 => 3
567.9 => 7
|
2023-09-05T11:02:53
|
2023-09-14T21:18:41
|
2023-09-14T21:18:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zWQiyW2hC8BfLYehryxa
|
Will the last digit of the S&P 500 closing price be even on any day from Sep 11-Sep 15?
|
The last digit is the last whole number
Only referring to the closing price
Will the number be even at least once?
For example 123.4 => 3
567.9 => 7
|
2023-09-05T10:47:15
|
2023-09-15T13:17:07
|
2023-09-15T13:17:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zG7ZS83BzqSnbwPoga5J
|
Will the New York Jets beat the Buffalo Bills in their Week 1 matchup in the 2023 NFL season?
|
It's the start of a new NFL season, and we have our first Monday Night Football game between two AFC East rivals looking to win that crown. With the Jets bringing in Aaron Rodgers along with last year's two Rookies of the Year, will the Jets begin their Super Bowl expectation-ladden season with a win? Or will Josh Allen show why the Bills have led the East these past few seasons with a victory?
Yes - Jets win
No - Bills win or tie
N/A - Game gets cancelled (Like Bengals-Bills last season)
|
2023-09-05T09:28:46
|
2023-09-11T20:45:00
|
2023-09-11T20:51:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uC8XT50fZhwvXfpBqCwZ
|
Will the New England Patriots beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 1 matchup in the 2023 NFL season?
|
It's the start of a new NFL season, and we start the midday slate of games with a Super Bowl LII rematch. With Bill Belichick hoping to have fixed the offense this year, will Mac Jones and the Patriots start the year with a victory? Or will Jalen Hurts get the Super Bowl LVII loser together and hand a familiar foe another L?
Yes - Patriots win
No - Eagles win or tie
N/A - Game gets cancelled (Like Bengals-Bills last season)
|
2023-09-05T09:14:59
|
2023-09-10T16:40:58
|
2023-09-10T16:41:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QIIX5skZugYccrJuvhQG
|
Will Civilization 7 be released before the end of 2024?
|
A new Civilization game has been officially confirmed to be in development, and it's speculated to be released sometime in 2024. If it's Civilization 7, will it be released internationally before the end of 2024?
[tweet]
|
2023-09-05T08:57:40
|
2024-06-10T11:46:58
|
2024-06-10T11:46:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7ryOznZnUGcYdhp3OLsI
|
Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Tennessee Titans in their Week 1 matchup in the 2023 NFL season?
|
It's the start of a new NFL season, and we begin the first Sunday with two South teams going at it. With Derek Carr making New Orleans his new home, will he prove the doubters wrong and start 1-0 with the Saints? Or will the Titans crush the Saints with Derrick Henry's rushing attack?
Yes - Saints win
No - Titans win or tie
N/A - Game gets cancelled (Like Bengals-Bills last season)
|
2023-09-05T08:51:26
|
2023-09-10T13:20:00
|
2023-09-10T13:20:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PjjQ4eSMn2rGW1x0ucdH
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 3% in one day in November 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-05T07:26:46
|
2023-12-01T23:59:00
|
2023-12-03T18:54:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sExR5r6kjXQCbdF6qec5
|
Will a Spanish rider finish in the podium of La Vuelta a España 2023?
|
Resolves YES if a Spanish rider finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the general classification of La Vuelta a España 2023.
|
2023-09-05T07:26:37
|
2023-09-17T20:59:00
|
2023-09-18T05:09:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-78SEU5O3SjDZAXWxsROZ
|
Will the 2024 US Presidential election happen normally?
|
TL;DR - 2020 would resolve NO because of the January 6 insurrection.
For this question, "states" includes DC since it also votes for President, and "the actual result" is that declared by credible news media.
This question is a conjunction of all of the following:
in each state, polling places open normally, everywhere they're usually set up, plus mail-in/drop box voting where applicable;
in each state, votes are able to be cast normally and they're all included in the count;
in each state, the officially proclaimed result of the vote matches the actual one;
in each state, at least 50% of electoral votes are cast for the correct winner, according to its law and the actual result;
the candidate that would get the nationwide majority of electoral votes if there were no faithless electors, according to the actual result, actually gets a majority of electoral votes;
Congress certifies as winner the winner according to the actual result;
the winner gets inaugurated on January 20 and effectively acts as President;
none of these steps are threatened or disrupted by significant violence.
The assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 would mean that election did not happen "normally", by this question's criteria. Credible news reports will be used to ascertain the outcome of this question.
Minor flaws such as a limited number of polling places opening late due to malfunctioning voting machines, or deviations from normality that are not related to a deliberate derailing of the process, for example the President-elect failing to be inaugurated on January 20 due to sickness, are not enough to resolve this as NO.
|
2023-09-05T07:19:58
|
2025-01-20T23:43:22
|
2025-01-20T23:43:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qgRIaqrZxaKbqaRJRKKN
|
Will Elon Musk prevail in a defamation lawsuit filed against the ADL before the end of 2024?
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1698828606598734225
To clear our platform’s name on the matter of anti-Semitism, it looks like we have no choice but to file a defamation lawsuit against the Anti-Defamation League … oh the irony!
This resolves NO if there's no lawsuit before the end of 2024. Otherwise, it will stay open until the suit concludes.
Not sure about this, I can change it in the first few days if I get feedback in coments: If the suit is settled, resolves YES/NO based on credible media reporting or statements by involved parties on who got what they wanted. If it's ambiguous or not publicly known, resolves N/A.
|
2023-09-05T06:45:16
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-08T23:23:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7klc486zaTKR8mhRFYvo
|
Will Elon Musk file a defamation lawsuit against the ADL before the end of 2024?
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1698828606598734225
To clear our platform’s name on the matter of anti-Semitism, it looks like we have no choice but to file a defamation lawsuit against the Anti-Defamation League … oh the irony!
|
2023-09-05T06:43:38
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-08T23:23:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eQml6UqfnqjVmmsIe3cA
|
Will Sergio Perez be replaced as a Red Bull Driver in the 2024 F1 Season?
|
This market will resolve YES if Sergio Perez is announced as NOT driving for Red Bull Racing in the 2024 F1 season, otherwise NO. This market may resolve on any official announcment from Red Bull or other credible sources that Perez will be replaced by another driver in the 2024 season.
The market is about a driver change leading up to the start of the 2024 season, a mid-season change next year would not count.
|
2023-09-05T06:24:02
|
2024-03-02T14:59:00
|
2024-03-06T07:06:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QDMo5x1mLEXDKdVcuXNI
|
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2024?
|
Part of a series of markets on the survival of Tumblr. Resolves based on my judgement if there's any ambiguity, but I do not expect there to be.
|
2023-09-05T06:03:03
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2024-12-31T19:02:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U4DtQO82sQxlm0R39fHR
|
Will the price of Silver be higher or lower then the current spot price of 23.56 USD in exactly 1 month from today?
|
Silver spot price market prediction.
Duration 30 days
9/5/2023 start
10/4/2023
|
2023-09-05T05:39:06
|
2023-10-05T20:59:00
|
2023-10-10T04:17:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HucJzl2E2P1ECKqO0KSS
|
Russias ground lines of communication will be cut in southern Ukraine on Jan 1 2024.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-05T05:07:13
|
2024-05-01T14:44:48
|
2024-05-01T14:44:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qOPEraAopuyLVhVFV8SL
|
Will Sidemen win in THE SIDEMEN CHARITY MATCH?
|
Sidemen vs Youtube Allstars
|
2023-09-05T04:12:44
|
2023-09-09T14:23:00
|
2023-09-09T14:23:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gx0F2yqQrKWEXGt4EhLI
|
Will regular Ukrainian forces reach the city limits of Tokmak during 2023?
|
[image]
|
2023-09-05T04:09:00
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T02:46:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gEZP4saEfH4MrKqEIjnH
|
Will there be a public announcement that Joe Biden has tested positive for COVID before the end of September 2023?
|
Market will close at the 11:59p on the last day of September, unless an announcement is made sooner.
|
2023-09-05T03:55:02
|
2023-09-30T20:59:00
|
2023-09-30T21:46:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QrRvnGLNYvzQWgzfqnY6
|
Will a Bitcoin spot ETF be approved by the end of 2023?
|
The race to list the first spot-traded Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has seen the entrance of major financial institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity and VanEck.
While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) first approved a Bitcoin-linked Futures ETF in October 2021, the current filings are for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Following Grayscale’s recent legal victory against the SEC’s review of its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal there is more and more discussion regarding the approval of the ETF.
[image]
|
2023-09-05T02:44:32
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T02:46:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-to7jEauEydnaRLgjeSfF
|
Will Donald Trump win the Presidential Election of the United States of America in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-05T02:19:21
|
2024-11-06T15:33:21
|
2024-11-06T15:33:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O1dikQV0YPPAhSvwwLGh
|
Will Trump be the next president?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-05T02:15:50
|
2024-11-07T15:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:50:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-18ktLama0D9QKfBeR10H
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Oregon defeat Washington?
|
Kickoff: October 14, 2023 - 12:30 PM PDT
Husky Stadium - Seattle, Washington
Week 7 Pac-12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-notre-d
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-was
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-california-defeat-e09091fd1a2e
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-co
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-wash (this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucla-defeat-oregon
|
2023-09-05T02:13:23
|
2023-10-14T16:30:00
|
2023-10-14T16:39:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ywtVfbfHFAaPU6BC4qzC
|
Will India adopt a 'One nation, one election' system by 2025?
|
A special parliamentary session has been organized to discuss the possibility of conducting simultaneous polls across the country along with the possibility of renaming India to 'Bharat'.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/weeks-before-one-nation-one-election-push-centre-listed-pros-and-cons-4357272
If India has passed legislation to conduct simultaneous polls across the country by Jan 1st 2025, this resolves to yes.
|
2023-09-05T02:07:37
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2024-12-31T21:03:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TFamBeaNceYwWtyyxzwS
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Utah defeat Washington?
|
Kickoff: November 11, 2023 - Time TBD
Husky Stadium - Seattle, Washington
Week 11 Pac-12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-col
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-state-defe-53821e911b41
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-or
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-oregon
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-washin (this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-state-d-44bb33edecad
|
2023-09-05T02:07:32
|
2023-11-11T16:30:00
|
2023-11-11T17:11:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2y495du66C4Qr5YzJOBr
|
Will India be renamed to Bharat by 2025?
|
The government wants to rename India to Bharat:
https://www.cnbctv18.com/politics/india-to-rename-bharat-resolution-in-parliament-special-session-say-sources-17719781.htm
If, by the end of 2024, India is officially known as Bharat, and the name is used primarily in official communication, this market resolves YES. The market resolves YES even if the name change is rescinded, as long as it goes into effect
[link preview]
|
2023-09-05T01:47:38
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-02-01T14:18:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JyzY5XX8r3Vr5c8UAary
|
Will Carlos Sainz overtake Fernando Alonso in the 2023 WDC?
|
Resolved yes if he holds more points than Alonso at the end of the Abu Dhabi GP, regardless of both of their positions
|
2023-09-05T01:18:01
|
2023-11-26T12:59:00
|
2023-11-26T14:20:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YYKCHy5ITvvCU00g8hEr
|
Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
|
For the purposes of this market, I won't count:
Negotiations where one of the parties is not present (such as the Saudi talks)
Negotiations about matters not including a permanent peace settlement (such as the grain deal or an armistice)
Negotiations conducted through intermediaries/backchannels (e.g. oligarchs or other third parties)
An announcement of peace talks without them actually taking place
See also
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/when-will-peace-talks-between-russi)
|
2023-09-05T00:31:47
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:19:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RBK3a71yMbgMP3TvwbRn
|
Will Alexander Zverev win atleast 1 grand slam before the end of 2024?
|
[image]
|
2023-09-04T22:59:43
|
2024-09-03T15:37:51
|
2024-09-03T15:37:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lG3GmQjkqDiYcYy5YlX9
|
Will Medvedev play in the US Open 2023 Finals at the Arthur Ashe Stadium?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T22:43:52
|
2023-09-08T20:21:08
|
2023-09-08T20:21:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WkFPrDVbw17pAIE5xC2p
|
Will Nevada stay blue in 2024
|
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
Nevada! The last state in the union to officially tally up its votes in the 2020 election and declare Biden its winner (for some reason, Nevada is just really slow with counting its votes). This state is the only one in my series of battleground states that actually went to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and for good reason too! The state has been solidly blue since the Obama years.
2004: Bush (2.6)
2008: Obama (12.5)
2012: Obama (6.7)
2016: Clinton (2.4)
2020: Biden (2.7)
However, Democrats shouldn't be so comfortable. In the 2022 midterm elections, the Democratic incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto only eeked out a slim victory with a margin of less than 8000 votes. Additionally, both the state governorship and lieutenant governorship flipped to Republican candidates.
Will the Democrats be able to continue their winning streak in 2024? Or were the state trends in 2022 indicative of burgeoning Republican support? YES resolution means Blevada. NO resolution means Revada.
|
2023-09-04T20:41:41
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-10T16:32:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qQHnRTwUsfREww6faCyF
|
Will Jimmy Carter make it through Thanksgiving dinner?
|
Resolves yes if Jimmy Carter is still alive after 49ers-Seahawks kicks off. Resolves regardless of whether Jimmy finishes his entire dinner or not.
|
2023-09-04T18:35:59
|
2023-11-23T17:20:00
|
2023-11-23T19:41:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xF6noLwUuo1EqjuBsmUO
|
Will Jimmy Carter survive Halloween?
|
Resolves yes if Jimmy Carter is still alive the day after Halloween.
|
2023-09-04T18:28:44
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-11-01T04:23:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LE7PZerhbAF3TwtvHYD2
|
Will Pennsylvania stay blue in 2024?
|
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
Coming in at a whopping 20 Electoral College votes (tied for the 5th largest EC state in the country), Pennsylvania was the largest flip that Joe Biden achieved in his 2020 election victory. Biden won a lot of appeal with voters in the state, seeing himself as a bit of a hometown hero with his Scranton roots, reversing much of the conservative populism that gave Trump his victory in the state in 2016.
2004: Kerry (2.5)
2008: Obama (10.3)
2012: Obama (5.4)
2016: Trump (0.7)
2020: Biden (1.2)
Since going to the Dems in 2020, the state has trended even further blue with major governorship and Senate victories in the 2022 Midterm elections. Will Biden be able to score a repeat victory in 2024? If so, market will resolve as YES. If not, market will resolve as NO.
|
2023-09-04T17:32:03
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T23:56:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2MNefc29TmXiiutRelhG
|
Will Kizaru use a new technique in chapter 1092?
|
Kizaru has to use a new named technique in chapter 1092 for this to resolve YES. The move MUST involve the Pika-Pika No Mi in some way to count. Will resolve once scans are out and not spoilers.
|
2023-09-04T16:49:28
|
2023-09-13T11:21:39
|
2023-09-13T22:31:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uYPA9XMTz2SrAmPGbk9I
|
Will Michigan stay blue in 2024
|
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
Similar to Wisconsin, the state of Michigan was a key electoral pickup for both Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 during their respective presidential victories. Along with much of the rest of the Midwest, Michigan has become a fierce battleground state. However, since Biden's victory, the state has leaned even more blue, culminating in the 2022 Midterm elections when the Democrats won a trifecta in state government, controlling both House, Senate and Governorship (the first time since 1984).
2004: Kerry (3.4)
2008: Obama (16.4)
2012: Obama (9.5)
2016: Trump (0.3)
2020: Biden (2.8)
Will the Democrats be able to preserve Michigan's blue status in the upcoming 2024 Presidential elections? If so, market will resolve as YES. If not, market will resolve as NO.
|
2023-09-04T16:49:07
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T15:07:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k7VH279R4ZF3DHNsmoiK
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by 1% or more in September 2023?
|
Will the S&P 500 close at 4552.7366 or higher on 2023-09-29 (4288.05)?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-septemb
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level from January to September 2023
4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
|
2023-09-04T16:38:01
|
2023-09-30T01:16:05
|
2023-09-30T01:16:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aTVcoLzv4jjTw0QozCyc
|
Will the S&P 500 increase in September 2023?
|
Will the S&P 500 close at 4507.66 or higher on 2023-09-29 (4288.05)?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-by-1-or-mo
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level from January to September 2023
4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
|
2023-09-04T16:37:30
|
2023-09-30T01:16:50
|
2023-09-30T01:16:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U5rYXoxN1iMd0CE3r7Z9
|
Will iMessage continue to work on Beeper six months from now?
|
Beeper is an app that boasts of centralizing all your chats in one app. The app is currently invite-only.
Marques Brownlee recently made a video about Beeper, talking about how users without an Apple device can send iMessages with just an Apple ID: https://twitter.com/MKBHD/status/1698802430639591448
Apple famously limits iMessages to owners of Apple devices. (Android users get green bubbles). Will they prevent Beeper from offering iMessage to users who do not own Apple devices?
This resolves YES if
someone without an Apple device can create a free Apple ID and send an iMessage in March 2024.
It resolves NO if:
beeper doesn't offer the ability any more
the feature doesn't work or is extremely unreliable
It resolves N/A if:
Beeper shutters or pivots away
Beeper is still in a closed beta / invite-only phase at market close
|
2023-09-04T15:26:00
|
2024-03-05T10:29:00
|
2024-05-02T18:29:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oyCKSidsamjQy4PhATKF
|
Will Putin and Xi conduct an in person meeting between September and December 31st 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T12:26:42
|
2023-10-17T14:58:28
|
2023-10-17T14:58:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JvoDOB6XkRRGLLY4SSHg
|
Will the USD/RUB exchange rate hit 200 before 2025?
|
Resolves YES if Google Finance displays a number greater than 200 for the USD/RUB exchange rate on the monthly graph at any point before 2025.
|
2023-09-04T12:09:32
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T16:07:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0jdx1xEII4fVqQBIAe6b
|
Will GitHub have any incident on September 6th 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-09-06 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
|
2023-09-04T11:54:57
|
2023-09-06T04:01:51
|
2023-09-06T04:01:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-21sVeF4fovRbRBYgVNkF
|
Will Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong- un meet this September in Russia?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T11:49:07
|
2023-09-13T08:02:01
|
2023-09-13T08:02:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7w5JfQrsZW7RMqfCqSH6
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 5th September than it closed on 4th September?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 5th September than it did on Monday 4th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-09-04T08:00:19
|
2023-09-05T08:30:00
|
2023-09-05T09:02:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bgREqfNyGRHFY40KhnZ5
|
Will EUR/PLN go up in the upcoming month?
|
Is one EUR going to be worth more than 4.4685 PLN on 2.10.2023 (1.10.2023 is a Sunday)?
Will resolve according to https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-pln.en.html
Related markets:
[markets]
|
2023-09-04T07:09:22
|
2023-10-01T14:59:00
|
2023-10-01T20:50:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IyTOmtxMOVe5JnCfhZX6
|
Will the next change to the fed funds rate be upward?
|
Resolves upon the next change in the fed funds rate. Resolves Yes if it went up. Resolves No if it went down.
|
2023-09-04T07:02:13
|
2024-09-30T21:38:35
|
2024-09-30T21:38:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xY15DLO7qOkMOi6REB9q
|
Will the next Starship-Superheavy integrated flight test be streamed on YouTube?
|
Resolves YES if there is an official SpaceX live stream of the next Starship-Superheavy integrated flight test on YouTube.
Resolves NO if the flight test takes place, but without an official live stream on YouTube.
Market stays open until the next integrated flight test or resolves N/A if Starship ceases to be developed.
|
2023-09-04T06:00:11
|
2023-11-18T04:55:44
|
2023-11-18T04:57:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IiFHicGo8xu9MDDKv10j
|
Will Donald Trump be in jail, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2025
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T04:47:32
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-03T07:58:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2Lcjh3YFAguFRqd0ePlS
|
Will October 2023 be the hottest October on record?
|
As per NOAA's global report for October, will October 2023 be the hotest recorded October? Note that this will close at the end of the month, but will only resolve once the results are offically posted.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
[link preview]
|
2023-09-04T04:09:11
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-11-16T17:16:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ChASCabMX7KBz9EK422e
|
Will Taylor Swift's Eras Tour gross $500 million worldwide in cinemas by the end of 2024?
|
Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has been going since March. It's expected to be one of the biggest concert tours of all time - with every chance that it get the number one spot.
There is due to be a cinematic release of the tour in October 2023. As far as I can tell, no similar release has ever broken $100 million (the highest I've been able to find is $99 million for Justin Bieber in 2011), but the hype around this Taylor Swift releasae is enormous with news of pre-release sales being compared to Star Wars and Spiderman rather than other musical releases!
Will this release gross over $500 million at cinemas?
I'm planning to use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source (or the relevant BOM page if it doesn't stay at this URL post-release). If the worldwide total hits $500 million (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the 2024 and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.
Update 13th October: Manifold have added a new market type since I created this market back in early September. I think this new type might work quite well for these box office questions!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/how-much-will-taylor-swifts-eras-to)
|
2023-09-04T03:04:56
|
2024-12-10T15:59:00
|
2024-12-18T23:25:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FE53Aa63BZkO3ZZY5wjp
|
Will Tesla deliver its first Cybertruck in Q4/23?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T02:53:24
|
2023-11-30T12:49:42
|
2023-11-30T12:49:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sAtJmhJynarDPCIaB97l
|
Will Li Qiang hold a bilateral meeting with Modi at the G20?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T02:22:28
|
2023-09-11T20:59:00
|
2023-09-11T21:14:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TkfS4a472jeZMMK0HxvC
|
Will North Korea launch any missiles during the G20?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T01:31:56
|
2023-09-11T07:28:59
|
2023-09-11T07:28:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DMWldfukBF7eps69F0dP
|
Will Trump get another allegations by the the end of November?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-04T01:24:35
|
2023-12-27T06:01:35
|
2023-12-27T06:01:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N3huWwV12DOu1Ol77KcS
|
Will a hurricane hit either of the Carolinas by the End of September?
|
Resolves YES if either South or North Carolina record a direct hit and/or landfall (NHC definitions) from a Hurricane by September 30th. Resolves per NHC advisories.
|
2023-09-03T23:02:09
|
2023-09-30T21:26:12
|
2023-09-30T21:26:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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