id
stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
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| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-TEoePVqdu6u2MGMMzAEM
|
Will Dillon Danis pull out of the fight with Paul Logan?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-03T22:31:48
|
2023-10-14T14:59:00
|
2023-10-14T15:01:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EHlgpxaRxSwVseHliQnZ
|
Will England score more than 2 goals against Ukraine?
|
Ukraine is going head to head with England starting on 9 Sept 2023 at 16:00 UTC. The match is a part of the European Championship, Qualification Group C.
|
2023-09-03T22:02:39
|
2023-09-09T10:55:00
|
2023-09-09T10:56:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tZYb7tyiE1rUgpatJxKW
|
Will Messi score against Ecuador?
|
Argentina is going head to head with Ecuador starting on 8 Sept 2023 at 00:00 UTC at Estadio Mâs Monumental.
|
2023-09-03T21:56:16
|
2023-09-07T18:55:00
|
2023-09-07T19:03:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uGr7PKSWez5nnW2yoUYy
|
Will Haaland score against West Ham?
|
West Ham is going head to head with Manchester City starting on 16 Sep 2023 at 14:00 UTC at London Stadium.
|
2023-09-03T21:46:08
|
2023-09-16T09:00:00
|
2023-09-16T09:23:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O6Wiw8Fp705lEkdyemHR
|
Will America have a government shutdown triggered by transgender policy before the next election?
|
This could include riders that prohibit trans healthcare in the military, prohibit trans healthcare for minors, etc. If the point of disagreement involves policy around transgender people, this will resolve as yes.
|
2023-09-03T21:07:13
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T00:24:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9NC5GUQufSi6wwXM49bU
|
Will HAAS score points at the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix race weekend?
|
Resolves YES if Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg, or HAAS reserve driver scores a point or more in a sprint race or the actual race.
|
2023-09-03T21:05:19
|
2023-09-17T07:21:37
|
2023-09-17T07:21:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-700nlJSYt8iziNlqE4gT
|
Will Messi score 5 or more goals in September?
|
All goals scored count, for club or country in any match played September 2023 (Eastern Time).
|
2023-09-03T20:50:35
|
2023-09-30T20:04:51
|
2023-09-30T20:04:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NxrNT7qbcPfi6gskEKz1
|
Will Messi score 3 or more goals in September?
|
All goals scored count, for club or country in any match played September 2023 (Eastern Time).
|
2023-09-03T20:50:08
|
2023-09-30T20:05:30
|
2023-09-30T20:05:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TCsLEXKihFoBcSncXzTo
|
Will 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' movie gross over $125m opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28814949 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 13 - October 15) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' (2023) grosses more than $125,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by October 23, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-09-03T17:01:58
|
2023-10-16T15:08:02
|
2023-10-16T15:08:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qUFvLKPhDzrDCJGsXNgp
|
Arxiv will have at least 10 papers mentioning LK-99 or LK99 in September 2023
|
I will run an Arxiv search for papers published this mothin which mention "LK-99" or "LK99". If there are ever ten or more results for this term in September, 2023, then this market resolves YES
Right now there are no results.
Past results:
Results on arxiv advanced search for "LK-99" or "LK99"
From 2023-07-01 to 2023-08-01: 1 (the original paper)
From 2023-08-01 to 2023-09-01: 49
From 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-01: So far, zero as of 9/3
Exact search I am running:
[image]This is visible at this URL: https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=LK-99&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-year=&date-filter_by=date_range&date-from_date=2023-09-01&date-to_date=2023-10-01&date-date_type=submitted_date&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first
If reasonable improvements to my search are revealed, we may have to NA this market, since the historical examples etc. may have been invalidated. Please comment if you think I am missing papers in how I am conducting this search.
I am aware I am possibly double-counting the last day of the month, although in this case it doesn't matter.
|
2023-09-03T16:26:27
|
2023-10-01T23:59:00
|
2023-10-03T13:00:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qjF6LeyubLkKA1wwYvey
|
Will Accumulated Cyclone Energy exceed 160 in the Atlantic Basin in 2023?
|
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a metric that quantifies the energy output of tropical cyclones by summing the squared values of their maximum sustained wind speeds at 6-hour intervals throughout their active lifespan, providing a measure of their intensity and duration.
The 1991–2020 average ACE is 123 for the Atlantic basin (North Atlantic, Caribbean, GoM). Will it exceed the 160 predicted by Tropical Meteorgly Project at Colorado State?
Resolves per Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2023.
|
2023-09-03T16:17:10
|
2023-12-29T10:28:24
|
2023-12-29T10:28:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-osLoqejy9uuso1wk2R0N
|
Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 200 million subscribers by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
[link preview]
|
2023-09-03T16:04:42
|
2023-10-14T21:40:38
|
2023-10-14T21:40:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iGWuOwKIyGcCrq1vK2Af
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Oklahoma defeat Texas?
|
Kickoff: October 7, 2023 - 11:00 AM CDT
Cotton Bowl - Dallas, Texas
Week 6 Big 12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oklahoma-defeat-te (this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-texas-tech-defeat
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucf-defeat-kansas
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-tcu-defeat-iowa-st
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-kansas-state-defea-cd2a4589ec95
|
2023-09-03T15:10:27
|
2023-10-07T12:54:05
|
2023-10-07T12:54:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c7NWoN3sbs4iksfXOtmS
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo race in the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-03T14:08:21
|
2023-10-08T14:19:53
|
2023-10-08T14:19:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P33bJvKPOED3byBPjqbC
|
Will Arsenal win the 23/24 Premier League?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-03T13:44:30
|
2024-05-19T15:52:20
|
2024-05-19T15:52:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7xT2PRO2QjB2wfKG1kGT
|
Will Burning Man 2024 happen and be on playa?
|
Some details:
If Burning Man fails to happen at all in 2024 it resolves to NO. If the event happens but changes days for some reason this still counts as "in 2024".
"Playa" refers to the specific portion of Black Rock Desert used in 2023 and many previous years. If the location substantively changes (e.g. to a different state) the market resolves to NO. Moving ~1mile within Black Rock Desert would still count as "in playa" in the case where the event location moves but only slightly.
|
2023-09-03T12:24:44
|
2024-09-21T11:22:32
|
2024-09-21T11:22:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PPmLxUiNZ80nSFlYsv2S
|
Will anyone at burning man die directly from a lack of food or water?
|
Resolves based YES if any news reports report a death from starvation or dehydration.
|
2023-09-03T11:03:16
|
2023-09-17T23:59:00
|
2023-09-23T10:38:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QRAsEIpotEEQiPj4FXVM
|
Will bitcoin close above $25,811 on October 1, 2023?
|
Close for September 1 was $25,811
Will it go up or down by October?
|
2023-09-03T10:18:41
|
2023-10-01T21:59:00
|
2023-10-01T23:55:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dy0LyRyvAPHp8kHa8bMF
|
Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2024?
|
The WSJ reported he "microdoses ketamine for depression and takes larger doses at parties". Such a revelation would typically result in the loss of an individual's security clearance. He has previously been investigated for using marijuana and did not lose his clearance. Ketamine, however, is taken much more seriously.
Since the WSJ piece Ronan Farrow published a profile in the New Yorker that shows Elon's friends are clearly worried about his ketamine use. This market resolution criteria will be the same as the 2023 market except the close date. If the question below resolves yes this market also automatically resolves YES.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-the-us-government-open-an-inve)
|
2023-09-03T08:53:34
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:52:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xwyvJtVRUGFqiTaBq5iU
|
Will Italy extend the Belt and Road initiative with China at March 2024?
|
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/02/many-italian-parties-are-against-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-foreign-minister-says.html
[link preview]Italy has been discussing whether it should leave the Belt and Road initiative of China.
The renewal is expected at end of March 2024 currently.
This market resolves early if Italy has publicized their final decision and it is confirmed by CNN or BBC.
|
2023-09-03T08:17:04
|
2023-12-06T04:56:09
|
2023-12-06T04:56:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6RubOF6lanu5kRUBXL1p
|
Will marijuana be rescheduled by the US federal government by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-03T08:15:41
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:54:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UuVy4bIYRn5V19PVLtYF
|
Will ISRO moon rover Pragyan awaken successfully at the next sunrise?
|
The rover has hibernated to conserve power during the night.
https://twitter.com/isro/status/1698010732128764164
|
2023-09-03T03:32:00
|
2023-09-22T13:59:00
|
2023-09-22T17:33:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D5j7rAJS4h2U1R5dcfJE
|
Will Windows 12 be released before 2025?
|
Full release, not a preview or limited release, available as an upgrade to Windows 11 or standalone install, titled Windows 12 or Windows XII or anything else that literally means 12, released by Microsoft before 01/01/2025.
|
2023-09-03T03:28:10
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T23:03:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xuCkymnah07HYIXrNjLC
|
Will Xi attend G20?
|
While there are reports Xi will not attend, Biden still hopes he will.
Resolves YES if Xi Jinping attends the 18th G20 summit in India in person.
Resolves NO if he doesn't travel to India.
|
2023-09-03T03:17:11
|
2023-09-10T03:59:00
|
2023-09-10T09:25:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lFJfSKEzGL1AlA8HGjAd
|
Will Changpeng Zhao (aka @cz_binance) be in prison, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2030
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-03T03:07:33
|
2024-10-03T09:42:11
|
2024-10-03T09:42:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dAePRKt3wS2rmq4lZEvM
|
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-03T02:48:00
|
2023-09-23T03:39:01
|
2023-09-23T03:39:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d74uYva6ZeE0P2R4kkuU
|
Will GitHub have any incident on September 4th 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-09-04 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
|
2023-09-03T00:40:44
|
2023-09-04T11:53:21
|
2023-09-04T11:53:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MJMeC4ScFrSXNFdhMPGh
|
2023 NCAA Football: Will an SEC team win the national championship?
|
Question resolves yes if a team from the southeastern conference wins the 2023 CFB Playoff
|
2023-09-02T21:08:10
|
2024-01-01T18:22:19
|
2024-01-01T18:22:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ucMWpGDaxG3QZ4zw8jMw
|
Vivek Ramaswamy will poll > 10% by the next Republican primary debate 9/27/23
|
As judged by aggregate polls from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
[link preview]
|
2023-09-02T20:43:27
|
2023-09-27T20:59:00
|
2023-09-27T21:35:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XIoRhrjZgC8iKZk1cGVc
|
Will University of Michigan win the College Football Playoff National Championship for 2023-24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-02T20:27:43
|
2024-01-08T20:16:38
|
2024-01-08T20:16:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CyoRXeVlySrzTl2ZTSgs
|
Will Messi score 8 or more goals in September?
|
All goals scored count, for club or country in any match played September 2023 (Eastern Time).
|
2023-09-02T20:26:43
|
2023-09-30T20:04:04
|
2023-09-30T20:04:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hR2nO2RFBFg0UAk3e8QE
|
Will Wisconsin stay blue in 2024?
|
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
Behind Georgia and Arizona, Wisconsin ranks the 3rd most competitive state race that Joe Biden won in the 2020 Presidential Election. Both Trump and Biden won by razor thin margins in Rust Belt states such as Wisconsin during their respective election victories. Once a blue-collar Democratic stronghold, de-industrialization, outsourcing of manufacturing jobs and a sense of being left behind by economic elites has left the state in a toss-up status.
2004: Kerry (0.4)
2008: Obama (13.9)
2012: Obama (6.9)
2016: Trump (0.7)
2020: Biden (0.7)
Will the Democrats be able to carry the state once again in the 2024 election? If so, market will resolve as YES. If the state flips red, market will resolve as NO.
|
2023-09-02T19:54:05
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T09:12:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DoDA2XYRlLWrqG1VchQl
|
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-02T19:47:31
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T01:29:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DeULbTCCbWn3WmUDspGO
|
Can any model of Chat-GPT solve Wordle?
|
Any model on Chat-GPT is allowed. No code interpreters or any external sources are allowed, however.
Wordle:
GPT will have 6 guesses to guess a 5-letter word. Suppose your word is "SHIFT," and GPT guesses "STORE." Your response must follow the structure or a similar structure of G Y B B B, with G indicating the correct letter in the correct position, Y indicating the correct letter in an incorrect position, and B indicating the letter is not in the word. A fixed prompt can be added to the response to prompt GPT to guess again. Once GPT guesses the correct word or the #guesses > 6, the prompt is concluded. Note: six guesses refers to the number of guesses per word
Prompt criteria:
The prompt, other than responses to GPT's guessses, must be fixed. In other words, you must provide Chat-GPT with a set of instructions that remains the same for any chosen word.
Words:
This might change in the future, but the word bank for this question will be (Wordle solutioons from July 2023):
BLEEP, MOSSY, HOTEL, IRATE, VENOM,
WINDY, DONUT, COWER, ENTER, FOLLY,
EARTH, WHIRL, BARGE, FIEND, CRONE,
TOPAZ, DROOP, FLYER, TONIC, FLANK
BURLY, FROZE, WHALE, HOBBY, HEART
DISCO, ETHOS, CURLY, BATHE, STYLE
Resolution Criteria:
YES:
A fixed prompt is posted in the comments by the close date, that allows Chat-GPT to solve >= 25/30 given Wordles within 6 attempts. Any solution that is proposed will need to be validated by me (with the help of @Mira, hopefully). There can be no disclosure of the given word to GPT beforehand. The maximum allowed character limit is 30k.
NO:
No comments are posted with full solutions OR the solution fails to solve >= 25/30 wordles, the words are disclosed to chat-gpt in some form, or the character count is violated.
-
Any resonable changes made in this market before October of 2023 will count towards the resolution of this market. Of course, I will ask an admin to approve of these changes before resolving the market (if any).
Of course, any blatant loopholes will not be accepted as valid solutions. I resolve the right (formal, I know) to rule out any solutions that do not match the implied criteria.
Please try not to sabatoge this market by looking for missing elements of this market description. Chat-GPT should legitimately solve wordles.
|
2023-09-02T19:34:00
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-15T18:25:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uofbKIvdBhOWAi6iWSQr
|
Will the US Supreme Court rule by Election Day 2024 that Trump is eligible to run for President of the United States?
|
The 14th Amendment bans insurrectionists from seeking office, and the question of whether Trump can even be on the ballot is likely headed to the high court. What will they rule? This question resolves to YES if a majority of the court rules that Trump is eligible to be on all states' ballots either constitutionally or any decision that results in Trump being allowed to appear on all ballots for the Presidential contest. Resolves NO if the court rules that Trump is ineligible due to his insurrection activities, lack of standing, or any decision that results in Trump not appearing on all ballots for the Presidential contest. Resolves N/A if this doesn't get addressed (no petition for writ of certiorari) by the US Supreme Court before Presidential Election Day, November 5, 2024.
|
2023-09-02T16:49:26
|
2024-03-04T12:49:01
|
2024-03-04T12:49:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L0VE2ASystJ8S4pvxlNN
|
Will Arizona stay blue in 2024
|
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
Arizona was a key battleground state that defined Biden's electoral victory over Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Winning by a margin of only over 10,000 votes, it was the second-closest race, the closest state being Georgia. Arizona was also the highlight of Biden's larger Sunbelt strategy, trying to court voters from the Southern USA as part of a larger coalition traditionally made up of areas in New England and the West Coast.
2004: Bush (10.5)
2008: McCain (8.5)
2012: Romney (9.1)
2016: Trump (3.5)
2020: Biden (0.3)
If Biden manages to make a repeat victory, market will resolve as YES, if the state flips backs to red, market will resolve as NO.
|
2023-09-02T15:49:35
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-10T16:31:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fCAxXT9Nbufjf61kbn2k
|
Will more than 10 people die at Burning Man 2023?
|
Resolves based on my best guess in early October
|
2023-09-02T14:37:49
|
2023-10-02T23:59:00
|
2023-10-03T12:44:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g2DGE7IEMwSJ0TCekPmG
|
Will former FTX exec Sam Trabucco be charged with a crime by 2025?
|
Sam Trabucco aka sam2 was friends with Sam Bankman-Fried at MIT and they worked at Jane Street together. Trabucco joined Alameda Research in March 2019, and officially became the co-CEO in October 2021 along with Caroline Ellison. He stepped down in August 2022, just before FTX imploded.
Federal prosecutors have spoken with him as part of their investigations and the FTX bankruptcy has uncovered more than $15m in cash payments to him, as well as $2.5m for his yacht, "Soak My Deck".
Resolves to "Yes" if he's charged with any crime or a plea deal before the end of 2024.
|
2023-09-02T14:32:03
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T08:32:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aJNvyF7IVQ1VVbg3LfM8
|
Will a moderator ask about catastrophic AI risks in a US 2024 general presidential election debate?
|
Only a single question from the moderator about potential catastrophes or existential AI risks necessary during a general presidential election debate in order to resolve to YES
|
2023-09-02T13:55:20
|
2024-11-09T20:59:00
|
2024-11-10T04:30:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VA9ulgq3gUQnucJJXeRI
|
Will Taylor Swift be the most streamed artist in 2024?
|
I don't even listen to her, but I hear she's big!
Is she bit enough to be the biggest though? (I'll say Spotify as it's the easiest way to compile statistics)
If by the end of 2024 she has the most streams of anyone on Spotify, I will resolve YES.
(Just for maximum clarity, this question is for streams in the year 2024; Spotify will at some point release their stats on this, which is what will be used to resolve this question)
|
2023-09-02T13:22:04
|
2024-12-05T09:51:50
|
2024-12-05T09:51:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OAJCzlGlFxiJcZUX9RSU
|
Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' has a higher domestic opening weekend gross than 'Barbie'. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The respective "Domestic Weekend" tabs on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1517268/ (for days Jul 21 - 23) and https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28814949 will be used to resolve this market once the values for 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' 3-day opening weekend (October 13-15) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by October 23, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-09-02T08:52:06
|
2023-10-16T15:22:37
|
2023-10-16T15:22:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pNYVOIlVa8L85WqScbMH
|
Will 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' movie gross over $100m opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28814949 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 13 - October 15) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' (2023) grosses more than $100,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is no final data available by October 23, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-09-02T08:50:50
|
2023-10-16T15:08:27
|
2023-10-16T15:08:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M3ef9bIodFlKrQCB2xu9
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in one day in October 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-02T08:44:13
|
2023-11-01T23:59:00
|
2023-11-02T05:38:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GSQmeYcKJIyeTqkYdboD
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in one day in September 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-02T08:43:56
|
2023-09-29T13:20:56
|
2023-09-29T13:20:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jDqZVlZV8Ac4jTspgV3q
|
Will Georgia stay blue in 2024
|
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
The state of Georgia was a surprise victory for Joe Biden in the 2024 Presidential election. A traditional deep south state with conservative roots, it seemed likely that Trump would be able to sweep the state with no problem. However, with increased concentration of black voters in the Atlanta region and surrounding suburbs, Georgia has now changed to a competitive toss-up race.
From a pure numbers perspective, the Democrats have been making in-roads in the state for decades with the GOP margin of victory slowly tightening:
2004: Bush (16.6)
2008: McCain (5.2)
2012: Romney (7.8)
2016: Trump (5.1)
2020: Biden (0.3)
Will the Democrats be able to continue this trend and score another victory in the Peach State? If so, market will resolve as YES, if not and Georgia flips back to red, market will resolve as NO.
|
2023-09-02T08:02:57
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T23:56:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZrusheZty32SdwVCyEHB
|
Do you believe Destiny will end up on National media by the end of 2023?
|
This includes any national media from any country. Recently Melina was on Swedish National Media.
|
2023-09-02T08:01:25
|
2023-10-03T01:00:14
|
2023-10-03T01:00:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7gj9NMNnTng33Qh6OvGy
|
Will the S&P 500 close above 4,516 on Sept. 8, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-02T06:26:34
|
2023-09-08T13:39:22
|
2023-09-08T13:39:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DcUgsCPu0N1G3ppYHCfM
|
Will any UK school collapse before 2025?
|
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/19/risk-of-england-school-buildings-collapse-very-likely-says-dfe
|
2023-09-02T03:17:38
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-22T03:38:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q7GQBOg5khyMXzZkxAhy
|
Will there be a major school shooting in the US before the end of 2023?
|
For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.
This will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2023, from the creation date of this question.
This will resolve to NO if no school shooting occurs in the US with four fatal victims or more.
|
2023-09-01T21:34:01
|
2024-01-01T05:46:27
|
2024-01-01T05:46:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GPQuPoPtmgtbzawXJHl0
|
Will Novak Djokovic reach the Semifinals of the US Open 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-01T21:06:11
|
2023-09-06T09:47:53
|
2023-09-06T09:47:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hUDuDo4dhpeSWO2jtYrZ
|
Will we see Biden wearing a face mask in 2023?
|
With various news sources reporting COVID-19 hospitalizations rising again. Will we see President Biden wear a face mask this year?
YES If we see Biden wear a mask from the time of creation of this question. This does not have to be a public appearance. Although it can be. Any imagery of him wearing a mask on his face, covering the nose or not, will result in YES.
NO We will not see Biden wear a face covering this year.
|
2023-09-01T21:05:15
|
2023-09-05T18:03:13
|
2023-09-05T18:03:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZuDi9tMRGdECjU7nzAna
|
Will a tropical storm make landfall anywhere in the continental US by September 10?
|
A tropical storm here is understood to be a named storm. It may be but doesn't have to be a hurricane. All according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur.
Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).
NHC glossary: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
|
2023-09-01T17:24:13
|
2023-09-10T15:10:20
|
2023-09-10T15:10:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zMGWASrbv8By8bdRJSIK
|
Will a hurricane make landfall anywhere in the continental US before the end of September?
|
The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty but I will not wait until the next year's NHC report which sometimes includes reassessments.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Source: National Hurricane Center.
|
2023-09-01T17:20:16
|
2023-09-30T18:10:35
|
2023-09-30T18:10:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CdlHl7809EKXbt6wnsA1
|
Will there be a “No Labels” ticket on the ballot in over 25 states in the 2024 US general presidential election?
|
See recent news about the No Labels organization exploring prospects for a third-party presidential ticket: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/30/no-labels-third-party-election/
|
2023-09-01T16:02:23
|
2024-11-10T04:30:08
|
2024-11-10T04:30:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bEoITpIFgejNvpgDn9Ji
|
Whether the "Konfederacja" party will gain more than 10% support in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland?
|
parliamentary elections in Poland will take place on October 15, 2023
|
2023-09-01T12:19:54
|
2023-10-15T14:59:00
|
2023-10-15T23:46:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eWKzNCZOeUCpX2j69M5s
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on September 5 than it closed on September 1?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of September (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2000
2 1250
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
[link preview]
|
2023-09-01T10:51:02
|
2023-09-05T11:00:00
|
2023-09-05T16:27:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uIMcDzKEyiFDOOoXzcVm
|
Will another sexual harassment claim come out against Elon Musk by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-09-01T07:36:08
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-05T15:29:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UX3qEVDV009KYF5xkMyj
|
Will Ingenuity make 75 or more flights on Mars?
|
Mars helicopter
|
2023-09-01T07:19:33
|
2024-01-25T11:56:14
|
2024-01-25T11:56:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LjfBDowEgBvrRMtLOfF3
|
Will Miami Marlins make the playoffs ⚾️ 2023?
|
The 2023 Major League Baseball postseason is the elimination tournament held to determine MLB’s champion. Commencing October 3, the playoffs for each league—American and National—consist of two best-of-three wild-card playoffs contested by the worst-seeded division winner and the three wild card teams, two best-of-five Division Series featuring the wild-card winners and the two highest-seeded division winners, and finally the best-of-seven League Championship Series. The winners of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) and the National League Championship Series (NLCS) play each other in the best-of-seven World Series.
|
2023-09-01T07:00:45
|
2023-10-01T02:36:07
|
2023-10-01T02:36:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VvHnmee9pdKViLqYpjKk
|
Will Denmark try to ban burning the Quran by the end of 2023?
|
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]Counts if legislation is passed
see also:
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the-d1fca89c8442
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the-f651c6937676
@/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the-0058aa11485a
@/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the
|
2023-09-01T06:31:43
|
2023-12-07T11:19:28
|
2023-12-07T11:19:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZqPFodFfehGOJ1uaUhsP
|
Will Denmark try to ban burning the Quran by the end of 2024?
|
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]Counts if legislation is passed
see also:
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the-d1fca89c8442
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the-f651c6937676
@/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the-febcd43d4d9f
@/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the
|
2023-09-01T06:31:09
|
2023-12-07T11:19:32
|
2023-12-07T11:19:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NtJLmBuFkYvppHkxKdla
|
Will Sweden try to ban burning the Quran by the end of 2024?
|
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]Counts if legislation is passed
see also:
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the
@/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the-f651c6937676
@/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the-febcd43d4d9f
@/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the-0058aa11485a
@/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the
|
2023-09-01T06:25:41
|
2024-12-31T07:26:57
|
2024-12-31T07:26:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XmI307Om5dK2UdtiYcUq
|
Will Carlos Sainz finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 3, 2023.
As this is a market based on an objective fact, I may bet in it.
|
2023-09-01T03:17:05
|
2023-09-03T07:45:47
|
2023-09-03T07:45:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mAczgf4OmtBnpxGQ1NQD
|
September 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000?
|
If in September 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2023-09-01T02:43:35
|
2023-10-01T08:41:49
|
2023-10-01T08:41:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YMX3nYIinsvaxeiDgRQE
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close September higher than it opened?
|
September 1st Open: $25,927
vs
September 30th Close... resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data#panel
[link preview]
|
2023-09-01T02:42:59
|
2023-10-01T08:40:09
|
2023-10-01T08:40:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qGIp8vgMfp3pMFWPhTJK
|
Will Jonas Vingegaard lead the 2023 Vuelta a Espana for one day?
|
Either awarded red jersey on the podium, wearing it in the race, or leading the race after the previous leader has DNF'd would all count.
|
2023-08-31T14:43:17
|
2023-09-17T11:06:54
|
2023-09-17T11:06:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AtfMN7Yd3BGyNgU7EcFN
|
Will Geraint Thomas win a stage of the 2023 Vuelta a Espana?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-31T14:40:11
|
2023-09-17T11:05:41
|
2023-09-17T11:05:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pz063F4uCaP5F6mlvbHY
|
Is Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign dead?
|
His campaign had momentum entering the debate, however after the debate his support has stagnated.
Resolves as true if his odds of winning the GOP nomination never surpass 10% from August 31st 2023 to November 1st 2024 and false otherwise.
Source of odds: https://electionbettingodds.com/
[link preview]
|
2023-08-31T14:22:38
|
2024-01-17T19:29:53
|
2024-01-17T19:29:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EexqEjjbpG4HUQLOQBYL
|
Will SCOTUS affirm in Moore v. United States (does the 16th Amendment prohibit taxing unrealized sums)?
|
https://ballotpedia.org/Moore_v._United_States
|
2023-08-31T11:02:11
|
2024-06-28T13:17:20
|
2024-06-28T13:17:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XGFTZ5ouaBfuPJiM8mgu
|
Will SCOTUS decide domestic violence perpetrators can own guns (affirm) in United States v. Rahimi?
|
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_v._Rahimi
|
2023-08-31T10:50:34
|
2024-06-21T11:34:54
|
2024-06-21T11:34:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DPk0DnS8XHCjuhsSMj3r
|
Will SCOTUS decide SEC fines violate right to trial by jury (affirm) in SEC v. Jarkesy?
|
https://ballotpedia.org/Securities_and_Exchange_Commission_v._Jarkesy
could be relevant (probably not):
@/CodeandSolder/will-any-major-three-letter-usa-fed
|
2023-08-31T10:48:53
|
2024-06-28T13:11:12
|
2024-06-28T13:11:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7Y0zroUXwx45PM5zjH0v
|
Will Mitch McConnell 'zone out' again by October 1?
|
[link preview]
|
2023-08-31T10:20:03
|
2023-09-30T16:59:00
|
2023-09-30T17:15:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZoJoYKvO6IGl4oZXycdA
|
Will Donald Trump's 2024 running mate be a woman?
|
Resolves as n/a if the Trump 2024 campaign ends without picking a running mate.
|
2023-08-31T09:31:25
|
2024-07-15T18:14:58
|
2024-07-15T18:14:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-75luhOnuZCIV0RPnq6jA
|
Will another Trump organization declare bankruptcy in 2023?
|
This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]Trump in name or as the majority owner
|
2023-08-31T08:34:30
|
2024-01-01T21:46:41
|
2024-01-01T21:46:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UOQMZrH8M0hzSM7KeArO
|
Will Elon Musk father another child in 2023?
|
real money original: https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-before-august-2023
This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk.
If no new spawn of Elon Musk have been reported by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then the market will resolve to “No”.
Any child must have been born by the market end date, and pregnancy reports will not be sufficient to resolve the market. If a child is not reported or announced by the end date and is later discovered to have been born prior to the end date, this will have no bearing on market resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a child will be considered to be discovered if they are not one of the nine living children confirmed at the time of this market’s conception, regardless of when the child was born. Name changes of existing children and legally adopted last names of any possible new children will not affect the resolution of this market.
-So far, list of Musk's children include:
Twins (from Shivon Zilis)
Exa Dark Sideræl (Grimes)
X AE A-XII (Grimes)
Kai, Saxon and Damian (Justine Wilson)
Griffin and Vivian (Justine Wilson)
|
2023-08-31T08:06:39
|
2023-09-11T05:51:01
|
2023-09-11T05:51:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S3jMwTgmpPdbVc5cAWSR
|
Will Glenn Youngkin be on the ballot in the Republican primary elections in at least one state?
|
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]
|
2023-08-31T07:44:46
|
2024-07-20T18:51:37
|
2024-07-20T18:51:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-52liQ3eQJPzwUlu3hN4z
|
Will Joe Biden sign legislation or executive order to legalize or reschedule cannabis before the 2024 election?
|
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]
|
2023-08-31T07:37:53
|
2024-11-06T09:14:57
|
2024-11-06T09:14:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ONBbgJo6ZJyXfkwC3qTQ
|
Will Toronto Blue Jays make the playoffs ⚾️ 2023?
|
The 2023 Major League Baseball postseason is the elimination tournament held to determine MLB’s champion. Commencing October 3, the playoffs for each league—American and National—consist of two best-of-three wild-card playoffs contested by the worst-seeded division winner and the three wild card teams, two best-of-five Division Series featuring the wild-card winners and the two highest-seeded division winners, and finally the best-of-seven League Championship Series. The winners of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) and the National League Championship Series (NLCS) play each other in the best-of-seven World Series.
|
2023-08-31T07:21:37
|
2023-10-01T02:31:21
|
2023-10-01T02:31:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MZ2RcNk3721zMmZvwor1
|
Will an interstate war erupt in Africa before October 2023?
|
Ci sarà una guerra tra ststi in Africa prima del 2023
|
2023-08-31T07:10:15
|
2023-10-01T14:59:00
|
2023-10-02T06:46:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fAeddcJZX1Z1nEomonJH
|
Will GitHub have any incident on September 1st 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-09-01 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
|
2023-08-31T06:55:45
|
2023-09-01T14:22:18
|
2023-09-01T14:22:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GNcU3yKgpINa0iLd61J8
|
Will Brazil beat Argentina? ⚽ World Cup Qualifiers
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-31T05:09:02
|
2023-11-21T20:40:37
|
2023-11-21T20:40:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m3ZjThoCRGUYrkLlC13E
|
Will Donald Trump be in prison during the 2024 Republican National Convention?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-31T03:36:36
|
2024-07-18T15:59:00
|
2024-07-18T22:45:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5JqTHobqDgI6dPdY43gJ
|
Will there be a major hurricane in the Atlantic between 08-31-223 and 09-10-2023?
|
Resolves YES per the NHC if there is a Cat III+ hurricane in the Atlantic by 09-10-2023 0z.
Graph shows the strike probability at 20230911 12z based on the number of ENS members (20230830 12z) that predict a hurricane (each member has equal weight). Strike probability = a hurricane will pass within a 300 km radius from a given location (purple = 5-10%, red = 10-20, organge = 20-30, yellow = 30-40) and within a time window of 48 hours of 20230911 12z.
[image]
|
2023-08-31T00:29:54
|
2023-09-07T13:53:44
|
2023-09-07T13:53:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bEl7kw4LDfAgjPVeS419
|
Will Jimmy Carter reach 99 years of age?
|
DOB: 1/10/1924 (DD/MM/YYYY)
|
2023-08-30T22:17:08
|
2023-10-01T05:59:00
|
2023-10-01T06:17:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tL1JbK0OgucS36jC1RIa
|
Will Remco Evenopoel finish the 2023 Vuelta a Espana
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-30T20:43:26
|
2023-09-18T12:43:37
|
2023-09-18T12:43:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GNcOagvQ6nYSuBN5kntP
|
Japan will defeat Samoa in their pool match at Rugby World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Japan beat Samoa in their pool match at the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Otherwise resolves NO
|
2023-08-30T20:06:41
|
2023-09-28T13:54:35
|
2023-09-28T13:54:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IaROeqgq2kKXIoR7u8rf
|
Will MBS visit Pakistan by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-30T15:29:22
|
2023-12-31T20:48:43
|
2023-12-31T20:48:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bbjvs6x1LAWRSXr4iXjQ
|
Will "Ron DeSantis drop out before Christmas"?
|
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]
|
2023-08-30T15:01:57
|
2023-12-25T03:16:03
|
2023-12-25T03:16:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cb9ORIoTL1DBepG1w1TI
|
Will Germany win vs. Slovenia in the second group stage at the 2023 FIBA World Cup?
|
The game will take place on September 3, 2023.
|
2023-08-30T13:15:13
|
2023-09-03T06:02:36
|
2023-09-03T06:02:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rqQHVQpN6f5Q9BMo5VN7
|
Will destiny reach 710k subscribers in September?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-712k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-715k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-406c2b58eb95
@/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-3af8cb53b119
|
2023-08-30T11:52:59
|
2023-09-25T21:23:23
|
2023-09-25T21:23:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2sES2NiNA6cJla2PVwPv
|
Will destiny reach 715k subscribers in September?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-710k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-406c2b58eb95
@/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-3af8cb53b119
|
2023-08-30T11:50:40
|
2023-10-01T00:00:00
|
2023-10-01T00:05:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cF46jTET7qapkzWMiX3j
|
Will it be a White Christmas in the UK?
|
"The definition that the Met Office uses to define a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK.
Traditionally we used to use a single location in the country to define a white Christmas, which was the Met Office building in London. However, with the increase in betting on where will see a white Christmas, the number of locations have increased and can now include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast (Aldergrove Airport), Aberdeen (Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen FC), Edinburgh (Castle), Coronation Street in Manchester and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
We also analyse the data from our observing stations around the UK to provide a complete picture of where snow has fallen or was lying on Christmas Day."
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/white-christmas
[link preview]Market insipired by this one.
I'm not a UK resident, so I may need some help when deciding how to resolve 😂
I'll keep an eye out on @metoffice twitter when the time comes.
Resolves YES (metoffice twittter post)
[tweet]
|
2023-08-30T10:51:04
|
2023-12-25T10:29:52
|
2023-12-25T10:29:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dKbxJbv6UNP9tsQEB07O
|
[Ṁ100 subsidy] Will Ron DeSantis be publicly criticized by the White House for his handling of Hurricane Idalia?
|
By close time.
White House = President Biden or a White House spokesperson or a member of the cabinet speaking in their capacity as cabinet member or reflecting the official position of the White House.
Publicly criticized = any statement made publicly, in writing or orally, with journalists, as a press release, or from a social media account, expressing at least partial disapproval of the way Governor DeSantis handled the Florida response to Hurricane Idalia.
The criticisms can pertain to actions taken (or not taken) by DeSantis before, during, or after the hurricane.
I'm not a news junkie and can't follow what everyone says, so please feel free to submit candidates for resolution in the comments.
I will not bet in this market.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NicoDelon/will-ron-desantis-be-publicly-criti)
|
2023-08-30T10:48:49
|
2023-09-29T20:59:00
|
2023-09-30T04:06:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LEWMQDQdLV5mGi0p4hsT
|
Will Gear 5 appear in chapter 1092?
|
At least one panel showing Gear 5 in the present or FLASHBACK to RESOLVE YES
|
2023-08-30T09:36:57
|
2023-09-14T02:52:30
|
2023-09-14T02:52:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oA4HtGxQopr70aALEw26
|
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI at the end of the year 2024. If he leaves and then returns before the end of the year this will still resolve to YES.
|
2023-08-30T09:35:42
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:05:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jfJCbxOJWOEkCc7qCSVJ
|
[1000M subsidy] Will Ukraine retake Tokmak by the end of 2023?
|
The town of Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) is a major logistical hub of the Russian army and widely seen as one of the objective of the push south from Robotyne, right behind the so-called Surovikin lines.
[image]
As of 30/08/2023, the ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) was reported to be behind the first of the lines west of Verbove.
This question will resolve YES is the ZSU is in control of Tokmak District Hostpital for at least one continuous 24hour period before the end of 2023, so short raids do not count. Notably this mean that the ZSU failing to cross the Tokmach river would still count as the Russian logistics would be destroyed.
As usual, I will not be betting on my markets.
|
2023-08-30T05:57:34
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T05:17:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G09nBm0T4c7uWJHaTPHt
|
[300M subsidy] Will Ukraine retake the town of Verbove before September 17.
|
On august 23, the ZSU (Armed forces of Ukraine) retook the town of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reaching the first of the so-called Surovikin lines.
On august 30, reports came that units of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade were beyong the first line just west of the town of Verbove.
[image]This question aims to probe whether the ZSU manages to expand its breach of the Surovikin line. The town of Verbove will be considered liberated if the Verbove high school is held by the ZSU for at least 24 hours before the end of the time period. If it is seized right before the deadline (so short raid do not count), I'll wait to see if they hold it for at least 24 hours.
As usual, I will not be betting on my own questions.
|
2023-08-30T05:49:29
|
2023-09-17T14:59:00
|
2023-09-18T01:11:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fzFvjsWVYpnCtLCRS6qa
|
Will summer 2024 have the Earth's hottest ever recorded air temperature?
|
It's been a hot year. However, will next year the peak temperature anywhere in the world, over the summer (defined 20th June to 22nd September) be higher than any previous record? If so, this market resolves YES.
I am hoping people can take this in good faith: I clearly mean air temperature as a result of the weather, and reported by a metrological society (which itself can be reported in a trustworthy news site).
Yes, a nuclear bomb that detonates would have a heat the surrounding air temperature more than found in a desert, but you know that's not what I mean.
|
2023-08-30T04:27:21
|
2024-10-10T06:30:44
|
2024-10-10T06:30:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wgzjdBXeZNVlyML921TY
|
Will the next Starship Orbital flight attempt occur before September 16th?
|
Resolves YES if, before September 16th local time at the launch site, an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream of a launch attempt of a Starship–Superheavy full stack intended to fly on an orbital or near-orbital trajectory. Market resolves when the stream goes live and shows views of the rocket and a countdown, not on e.g. a waiting screen.
The launch needn't be successful and can even be scrubbed, as long as the attempt was serious enough that they put up the livestream.
Resolves NO if there is clearly no such livestream before September 16, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened.
|
2023-08-30T02:37:57
|
2023-09-15T22:03:19
|
2023-09-15T22:03:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P3vbw6vYbTW9fTP88Ahw
|
Will the Coup in Gabon succeed?
|
A military coup has been announced in Gabon on 08-30-2023.
Paraphrased from DW:
A group of senior Gabonese military officers made a televised announcement on Wednesday, stating their decision to invalidate the outcome of the recent national election, asserting concerns about its credibility. This move followed the state electoral body's declaration of President Ali Bongo as the winner of a third term. These officers, purporting to represent all of Gabon's security and defense forces, declared the dissolution of "all the institutions of the republic."
Their stated reason for this intervention was what they described as "irresponsible and unpredictable governance," which they believed had led to a deteriorating social climate. Their aim was to restore peace by ending the current regime. The announcement, broadcast on the Gabon 24 TV channel, was made on behalf of a group calling itself the "Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions. In a related development, there were reports of gunfire heard in the capital city of Libreville, as reported by the news agency AFP.
YES if the coupists are able to take and maintain control of the government for at least seven days or are able to achieve a definitive majority of their goals (specific goals unknow at the time of market creation - will update in comments).
Fyi: the most recent coup attempt in Gabon happened in 2019.
|
2023-08-29T22:25:12
|
2023-09-05T22:00:00
|
2023-09-05T22:00:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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