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collingray
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forecasting

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mani-WsZxXUlGs3QFZFzwaP4k
Will Vladimir Putin travel to a country obliged to fulfill the ICC arrest warrant while it's standing?
On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, for alleged war crimes. This has raised questions about Putin's future international travel, especially to countries that are signatories to the Rome Statute and thus obliged to fulfill the ICC's arrest warrant. Resolution Criteria: The market will resolve as "Yes" if verified news reports confirm that Vladimir Putin has traveled to a country that is a signatory to the Rome Statute and is thus obliged to fulfill the ICC's arrest warrant while the warrant is still in effect. The market will resolve as "No" otherwise,
2023-08-29T22:05:01
2024-09-02T12:01:11
2024-09-02T12:01:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dkT1degGK43373v10nUv
Will J. Powell raise interest rates by 25 bps in the FOMC meeting on September 20th?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T18:13:38
2023-09-21T14:59:00
2023-09-23T10:43:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5SAV1ObLm9evdYO5DoYJ
Will there be another MAGAsurrection by the end of 2024?
January 6th was MAGAsurrection I. [image]
2023-08-29T17:52:03
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:49:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pUphfzQpo3K4g6SkT9H0
Will Avi Loeb's paper on spherules from interstellar meteor IM1 be accepted for publication before 2024?
Avi Loeb, a former chair of the Harvard Astronomy Department, claims to have found fragments of an interstellar meteor, referred to as "IM1," in the Pacific Ocean. His expedition retrieved tiny metallic spheres, or spherules, which he believes are evidence of the first-known interstellar meteor. However, the scientific community is divided on his claims. Some experts argue that the data and methodology used are not robust enough to support an interstellar origin for the meteor. Despite the criticism, Loeb is pressing forward with analyses of the spherules. Sources: The Hill Article New York Times Article Medium Blog by Avi Loeb
2023-08-29T17:18:56
2023-12-31T19:59:00
2023-12-31T21:08:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QAomlQGcAkPHMTOWFPyY
Will Fani Willis be removed as Fulton County DA before the end of 2024?
This question will resolve as YES if Fulton County District Attorney Fani WIllis is removed from office in any capacity on or before December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
2023-08-29T15:47:58
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-03T16:23:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tnWCSwZnjP8fdEJ3TCGt
Will Alireza Firouzja play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
This resolves positively if Firouzja is able to qualify and play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024 If Firouzja qualifies for but declines to partipate in the tournament, it will resolve negatively. If Firouzja is selected by FIDE as a replacement in the tournament, without qualifying directly, this will still resolve positively. This market closes at the start of the candidates tournament. If Firouzja, somehow, participates in the tournament and is paired in the first round, but never manages to play a match due to sickness, protest, or other factors, it will resolve negatively. This market will resolve negatively after the first round of the tournament occuring without Firouzja being a listed player, or positively upon Firouzja playing a match in the tournament.
2023-08-29T14:52:49
2024-04-02T21:59:00
2024-04-04T11:48:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2HfSmyXV2tF8edbuPA8x
Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Oct 2023?
Data source for resolution: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ [link preview]
2023-08-29T14:50:19
2023-11-02T00:12:21
2023-11-02T00:12:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UPHOBNEZtKdDdqYTZKtb
Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open?
The market will resolve to “Yes” if Novak Djokovic wins the 2023 US Open Men's Singles tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If at any point it becomes impossible for Novak Djokovic to win in Men's Singles based on the rules of the US Open, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the US Open (https://www.usopen.org/), however credible reporting may also be used.
2023-08-29T13:36:58
2023-09-10T17:44:36
2023-09-10T17:44:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-k8bHrkkfJRcGjl7OrJlR
Will SBF get Adderall in jail?
If it is learned SBF has received Adderall between August 24 and September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, then this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it is learned that SBF received Adderall within this market's timeframe after this market's timeframe has expired, it will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by SBF and/or his legal representation, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Resolves like Polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/will-sbf-get-adderall-in-jail [link preview]
2023-08-29T13:34:21
2023-09-26T01:21:28
2023-09-26T01:21:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RgDAkuQybaKm1eeOp0cU
Will Ron DeSantis drop out of the Presidential race before the Republican National Convention, slated for 7/15-18/ 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T13:21:09
2024-01-21T12:55:00
2024-01-21T12:55:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QCltHXwl3uJxi4HngaCW
Will Donald Trump receive 20% or more of the black vote in the 2024 election?
[image]There's been a Fox News poll screenshot going around Twitter for the past few days showing that currently 20% of black voters favour Trump. Will this 20% become to fruition? Market will resolve as YES if official election data released confirms >=20%. If not, market will resolve NO
2023-08-29T12:02:47
2024-11-24T11:25:27
2024-11-24T11:25:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-o2uJR5qN42uyGr7RpA0S
Will Elon Musk make ANY changes to the blocking feature on Twitter by 1st October 2023
Such as not being able to block advertising accounts.
2023-08-29T11:21:28
2023-10-02T11:59:00
2023-10-03T12:46:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zUpxNozsLuQTt1zOg7vr
Will the AMPTP reach agreements with both the WGA and SAG-AFTRA to end their current strikes before November 1st 2023?
Market resolves by EOD (11:59PM PST) on Tuesday, October 31st 2023.
2023-08-29T10:05:54
2023-11-01T23:59:00
2023-11-02T05:12:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NFVhL93LnbF7qHoFbXzB
Will there be a major push for healthcare reform in the US in 2023?
"Major" means the white house and congressional leadership are backing it
2023-08-29T09:59:02
2023-12-29T21:59:00
2024-01-04T03:58:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sn2oFNhyjy8nJPBHn5oJ
Will Kanye 'Ye' West release a new album by the end of the year? (2023)
There have been unconfirmed rumours about a new Kanye West album in the works and being potentially close to release. An album in this market is qualified by any mixtape or EP as long as it has more than 5 full-length tracks (excluding shorter interludes, in the vein of Donda chant or skits for example). In the event of a 'Donda 2' style release, where it's not available on streaming services or to be traditionally purchased, the market will resolve NO.
2023-08-29T09:51:21
2023-12-31T16:07:15
2023-12-31T16:07:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r7yav03fzqevJVMExggm
Will Trump's January 6th trial begin as scheduled on March 4th?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T09:40:57
2024-03-04T20:59:00
2024-03-09T22:04:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1DLwc6lfVvAuxE3Ld1Ld
Will Vladimir Putin visit China in 2023?
The answer depends on credible news reports and requires verification from at least two sources.
2023-08-29T09:21:42
2023-10-17T01:00:18
2023-10-17T01:00:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-L3PX8O2Xj74NANBL7QfY
Will Biden refuse to debate Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T09:08:44
2024-06-27T19:31:20
2024-06-27T19:31:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jotgxI8XwgqENimbDNP8
Will the Colorado Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election?
The prevailing legal theory at the moment is that Trump is automatically disqualified by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This can apparently be unilaterally imposed by the Secretary of State in any individual state. This resolves YES if the Colorado Secretary of State makes a choice to enforce this constitutional provision, regardless of the outcome of subsequent legal challenges.
2023-08-29T09:01:06
2024-03-04T07:43:44
2024-03-04T07:43:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-emSKOQxMBoVju1aqus2u
[Ṁ100 subsidy] Will Ron DeSantis be publicly criticized by a GOP rival for his handling of Hurricane Idalia?
By close time. At least one rival is sufficient to resolve YES. GOP rival = anyone currently running for the GOP nomination in the primaries who is considered a 'major candidate' in polls according to 538. Publicly criticized = any statement made publicly, in writing or orally, with journalists, as a press release, or from a social media account, expressing at least partial disapproval of the way Governor DeSantis handled the Florida response to Hurricane Idalia. The criticisms can pertain to actions taken (or not taken) by DeSantis before, during, or after the hurricane. I'm not a news junkie and can't follow what everyone says, so please feel free to submit candidates for resolution in the comments. I will not bet in this market. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NicoDelon/will-ron-desantis-be-publicly-criti-f8f9cabbb84b)
2023-08-29T08:15:02
2023-09-05T10:02:51
2023-09-05T10:02:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TpjonkYYuttKXiyfNOHd
Will Trump pick Vivek Ramaswamy as his Vice President for 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T07:03:29
2024-07-15T15:35:00
2024-07-15T15:35:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rpLaeFhymGA3nvYjOBA7
Will Xi and Kishida hold a bilateral meeting at the G20?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T06:33:14
2023-09-11T20:59:00
2023-09-11T21:13:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kKSxb0K3gnNf7quWtjZ9
Will Xi and Modi hold a bilateral meeting at the G20?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T06:26:55
2023-09-11T20:59:00
2023-09-11T21:14:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bI6J7KYJQIABgewr8DNH
🇺🇸 Will Donald Trump be the 47th president of the U.S.A.?
Simple, if Trump get elected resolves YES Trump not elected, resolves NO
2023-08-29T06:21:44
2024-11-06T07:59:00
2024-11-06T09:13:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ffO06T9PkyQaegfszxCu
Will Rosalyn Carter be alive on 12/31/2023?
Her local time.
2023-08-29T05:46:44
2023-11-19T13:26:46
2023-11-19T13:26:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JhKgdArS4LGaG4Ru31SZ
Will at least one EU country reintroduce COVID-19 lockdowns between the posting of this question and the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-29T01:38:17
2025-01-01T10:33:56
2025-01-01T10:33:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-So2UwzhPoYUDv7bkpyse
Will there be another coup in Africa during 2023?
Following Niger.
2023-08-29T01:17:41
2023-08-31T01:18:39
2023-08-31T01:18:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yr5r5nXTOmyVUKqmYOCI
Will AMD have improved it's graphics card market share as measured by the Steam Hardware Survey at the end of the year?
Steam conducts monthly hardware surveys, the latest of which(at time of writing) measures AMD's market share at 15.93% amongst it's sample of users. [image]The latest results can be found at: https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/ The results at time of posting are archived here: https://archive.is/fo5fd At the time of the question closing, on the 1st of January 2024, the latest published Hardware Survey at the time must show a percentage greater than 15.93% to satisfy the 'yes' condition. The 'no' condition would be satisfied if AMD's market share is shown to be equal to or less than 15.93%. The 'yes' condition requires a percentage in excess of 15.93% at the time of the question closing, AMD increasing it's market share at an earlier point in the year to above 15.93% and then falling back to or below 15.93% would not satisfy the 'yes' condition.
2023-08-28T21:54:22
2024-01-01T15:59:00
2024-01-01T19:29:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-R8jFJ8e7IKjJA8ZmllvS
Will Valve officially launch Counter-Strike 2 before Oct.?
Seattle time(where the Valve is located) I think that generally an open beta is not considered as the official launch of a game, even though it is open for all players. So I suggest resolving this to 'no' if we get an open beta and only to 'yes' if they clearly mark it as "full release"/"official launch" or something along these lines by@Johannes Koch (https://www.counter-strike.net/cs2?l=english)
2023-08-28T19:43:11
2023-09-27T21:20:49
2023-09-27T21:20:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OHzP2Emf5LooRNJXJyzh
Will Haley catch up to Ramaswamy before the second GOP primary debate?
According to 538's Who's ahead in National Polls page, will Nikki Haley tie with or surpass Vivek Ramaswamy before the second GOP debate? As of August 28, Nikki Haley was at 5.4%, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 10.1%. This will resolve "Yes" if Nikki Haley ties with or surpasses Vivek Ramaswamy according to the 538 page before the start of the next GOP debate (currently scheduled for September 27, 2024). Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
2023-08-28T19:40:18
2023-09-26T16:22:12
2023-09-26T16:22:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-U6BNoYG47zD0Dv7UPH08
Will the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs this season?
Resolves yes if according to mainstream sports media the Seattle mariners are participating in the MLB playoffs this season. Resolves no if this does not occur.
2023-08-28T18:38:49
2023-10-01T00:42:48
2023-10-01T00:43:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2peum1oabsgPdhOieh29
Will mistral.ai have a product by the end of 2023?
Will the well funded French startup deliver a product (e.g. a LLM or a generative model for images) by the end of 2023? The product must be accessible to the general public either via a web interface or an API or both.
2023-08-28T18:29:58
2023-10-09T11:20:50
2023-10-09T11:20:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QpdA4W9Qw8me5mCjoZob
Will MDMA be rescheduled by the DEA before the end of 2024?
MDMA is currently a schedule 1 drug in the US, but is also being studied as a medicine.
2023-08-28T17:39:39
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-10T21:47:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z4vvygPBYl6R4nipsiP7
Will Amazon be worth more than $140 a share on January first?
resolves yes if Amazon closes above $140 per share on January 1 2024
2023-08-28T17:18:42
2023-12-29T20:25:59
2023-12-29T20:25:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yUUEEFPE7E3dGpSw93DL
Will King Harald V of Norway be alive on January 1st 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-28T13:59:16
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-01T19:54:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rIx97MsUi0X8pwFrHtyH
Will OpenAI announce a GPT-4 successor shortly after Google releases Gemini?
"Shortly after" being after <1 month, counting from the day Gemini is available in any form (Bard, GCP, etc) to external users (can be behind a waitlist).
2023-08-28T13:52:34
2024-01-06T06:52:02
2024-01-06T06:52:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bUbo5gRTnjQlMLbDqz5I
Will a new destiny video reach 500k views in September 2023?
Resolves yes if a video posted in September on destiny's main channel reaches 500k views before 1/10/2023 Livestreams and Youtube shorts don't count.
2023-08-28T13:29:29
2023-09-30T23:59:00
2023-10-01T00:07:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5ppGYlmV9EAgzpM0yrsB
Will Trump still be alive by 2025?
Resolves yes if Trump is still living in 2025
2023-08-28T12:53:14
2025-01-15T22:59:00
2025-01-31T15:58:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bTbTeO9pQH4EHsMdXVXO
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record before October 2023?
As august is coming to an end, and Forsen hasnt gotten the record yet we need a similar question for September. Forsen and xQc are both variety streamers who often play competitive games. But sometimes they take a break to play more creative and fun titles. One of the games both decided to try out when their own favorites got stale was Minecraft. But Forsen and xQc quickly turned Minecraft competitive with their speedrunning antics. To beat 16:38:377 Related August question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/PieFreak/will-forsen-beat-xqcs-minecraft-rec-52fe1f2d3d92)
2023-08-28T12:45:28
2023-09-30T15:07:27
2023-09-30T15:07:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XMdnd0Dh52Jn9RzYoZdz
Will Nicki Haley poll higher than Vivek Ramaswamy by January 1st 2024 for the Republican Primary?
As meaured by the average of polls reported by https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ [link preview]
2023-08-28T10:46:51
2023-09-26T21:30:26
2023-09-26T21:30:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dhzRRG3KZot0gqpYETa7
Will the Black Sea Grain Deal be renewed in 2023?
Resolves yes if there is an agreement involving Russia to let ships come into Ukrainian ports and export grain. Otherwise, it doesn't have to be substantially similar to the initial grain deal, nor be explicitly called the "Black Sea Grain Initiative" or "Grain Deal". Upd: If an agreement is reached and formalized before the deadline but only comes into force after it, this still resolves yes. Upd2: The question resolves when/if an agreement is signed. An informal announcement, even by Putin, is not sufficient.
2023-08-28T10:26:13
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T02:44:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g9ImXdg2gQCrBOIOX4YX
Will any state disqualify Trump from the 2024 primaries?
Resolves YES if Donald Trump is disqualified and excluded from or removed from the ballots of any states in the US Republican Presidential primaries for 2024. Includes caucuses and such. If there are appeals, injunctions, etc, this resolves based on the final decision. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet further on this question and I have no position on it.
2023-08-28T08:08:43
2024-03-08T06:43:39
2024-03-08T06:43:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JqmSQBKrTJJ7LkGhIugl
Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?
Resolves YES if 7 days after the first 400B+ open source Llama 3 model appears on the lmsys leaderboard, it is ranked higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09. Resolves NO if it ranks lower or if no such model is released in 2024. Resolution of this market is delegated to @jskf https://chat.lmsys.org/
2023-08-28T07:56:33
2024-08-06T09:00:00
2024-08-06T13:02:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VWF8Dr9GSOWNxlQCBNer
Will the S&P 500 close higher on September 1 than it closed on August 31? [September Leaderboard Start]
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of September (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. Rank---Award 1 2000 2 1250 3 750 Good luck forecasting! Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on. Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard. [link preview]
2023-08-28T06:45:07
2023-09-01T11:00:00
2023-09-01T20:45:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-C2VgJJ2CmPFDcmTTVdvt
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 31 than it closed on August 30?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. Rank---Award 1 1500 2 1000 3 750 Good luck forecasting! Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on. Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
2023-08-28T06:42:42
2023-08-31T11:00:00
2023-08-31T15:38:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tjjr99PiRN4tcqCpxqnK
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 30 than it closed on August 29?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. Rank---Award 1 1500 2 1000 3 750 Good luck forecasting! Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on. Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
2023-08-28T06:42:00
2023-08-30T11:00:00
2023-08-30T16:31:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-owVkNpoWKWhxTguz2lho
Will Starfield have >800k concurrent Steam players by Sept. 13th?
https://steamdb.info/app/1716740/charts/ I will check all time peak reported here on 13th
2023-08-28T04:33:09
2023-09-13T10:55:35
2023-09-13T10:55:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kttD0rud9RZ3PZ5ZT8bX
Will Tucker Carlson Interview Vladimir Putin before 2025
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T21:04:23
2024-02-09T08:43:58
2024-02-09T08:43:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZScvTvbG7imQ4Kzjt8ac
Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T19:47:18
2023-09-04T04:18:07
2023-09-04T04:18:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CqwjXh10vPYwNZiFz7Ar
Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person by the end of November?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T19:46:45
2023-09-04T04:17:34
2023-09-04T04:17:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-g5gTKZOFvPMdxBwUEAZA
Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person by the end of October?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T19:45:37
2023-09-04T04:17:14
2023-09-04T04:17:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-c4oYIWcF9uma4Xh45kL6
Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person during September?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T19:44:09
2023-09-04T04:16:29
2023-09-04T04:16:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DJaYXZJGgMMduQYn5nIp
Will Trump post again on x.com before September 30th.
We all saw Trump post his mugshot on x.com. Will he post again on x.com, before September 30th?
2023-08-27T19:42:01
2023-09-30T21:59:00
2023-09-30T22:19:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FdlL3PP4JoJcXIWbznx7
Will Indonesia join BRICS before 2030?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T19:16:57
2025-01-11T21:22:14
2025-01-11T21:22:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rCs5bbW2EmtD7NsDNOy4
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of April 2024?
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates". Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count. If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would. Description from @agentydragon [markets]
2023-08-27T19:02:22
2024-04-30T09:59:00
2024-05-02T21:19:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JDusk0Xsqzq1ixptniKS
Will Michelle Obama run in the 2024 Democratic primary?
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary. I will not be trading in those markets. If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread. [image]see also: @/CodeandSolder/will-michelle-obama-run-in-a-presid
2023-08-27T17:10:58
2024-08-05T16:43:33
2024-08-05T16:43:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-83N0U1na7J8t2H8mpfC4
Will Donald Trump's polling average fall below 45% during the primaries?
Resolves according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/. Market resolves NO once Donald Trump becomes the nominee. Resolves YES if at any point (after market creation) before then, his 538 polling average drops below 45.0%, or he drops out of the race/dies.
2023-08-27T17:07:38
2024-03-20T11:33:15
2024-03-20T11:33:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9fLxE94FKDoGUDDe2HDP
Will Trump lose the 2024 popular vote by at least 10M votes?
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space. I will not be trading in those markets. If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread. [image]YES if not nominated
2023-08-27T17:05:21
2024-11-06T09:16:04
2024-11-06T09:16:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UsY8wRU89oCttWpfBJj9
Will Trump refuse to debate Biden before the 2024 presidential election?
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary. I will not be trading in those markets. If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread. [image]resolves NO if they don't debate for any other reason,including one of them not being nominated see also: @/CodeandSolder/will-biden-refuse-to-debate-trump-b
2023-08-27T16:54:25
2024-06-28T00:40:55
2024-06-28T00:40:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-01peMgI80uOJEJsVRc7G
Will Trump harshly criticize Vivek Ramaswamy before Nov. 2024 election?
This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump, for whatever reason, harshly criticizes Vivek Ramaswamy before the November 2024 Presidential election. For example, he might harshly criticize him for: 1 Gaining in the polls relative to him 2 Taking up too much of the spotlight relative to him 3 Disagreeing on some policy matter 4 Not sufficiently agreeing with him on some policy matter 5 Something entirely else "Harshly criticize" here is doing a lot of the work and will ultimately be a subjective decision by me, but what I'm generally looking for is ridicule, belittling, giving a perjorative nickname, describing him with some demeaning adjective, etc. The same kind of thing he has done to many erstwhile allies. If it happens, it happens, even if he takes it back later or speaks in praise of him later. This will resolve NO if Trump does not so harshly criticize before the November 2024 Presidential election. I won't be betting in this market and will be listening to the comments to decide if something qualifies as "harshly criticizing" but will be making the ultimate decision if something counts.
2023-08-27T16:45:27
2024-01-15T09:51:50
2024-01-15T09:51:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5LMtbQdW7OLA9RepTSGQ
Will Trump debate Chris Christie before the 2024 presidential election?
This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary. I will not be trading in those markets. If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread. [image]
2023-08-27T16:27:41
2024-11-07T13:57:24
2024-11-07T13:57:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vQdiFJqaSglwzrsxFSB8
Will X implement voice/video calls before EOY 2023?
Resolves YES if X (former Twitter) implements voice/video calls before EOY 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
2023-08-27T15:50:32
2023-10-26T22:12:02
2023-10-26T22:12:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SsVeT7k568iZKVAQnhUf
Will a Bitcoin spot ETF be approved by the SEC during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T13:48:25
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2023-12-31T23:49:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sU3CLVirgQpQNTStRbmy
Will Trump be indicted for misuse of PAC or campaign contributions to pay for personal legal expenses?
I imagine he will be able to claim he was acting as a candidate in most of the cases, but probably not the documents case. The way I understand the law he is currently basically ignoring it but its complicated for sure. Resolves YES if by the end of 2024 is charged for actions taken since he officially declared his candidacy in November 2022.
2023-08-27T12:06:47
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T12:50:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ecdMcJSoorwcvAh60GDO
Will Donald Trump win more than half of the total delegates on offer at the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T10:51:50
2024-01-19T04:54:16
2024-01-19T04:54:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Fy8vZf8imPobQW9DRfyR
Will "Joe Biden Never Be Impeached"?
This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary. I will not be trading in those markets. If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread. [image]resolves NO if impeached
2023-08-27T09:49:03
2025-01-20T08:04:01
2025-01-20T08:04:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bYo7y9hkEWvLTrw6oA6d
Will Tropical Storm Idalia become a Major Hurricane (Cat. III+)?
Resolves YES if at any point Tropical Storm Idalia reaches Cat. III strength as defined by the National Hurricane Center.
2023-08-27T09:14:39
2023-08-29T22:58:29
2023-08-29T22:58:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VizTaP6qnkrKO3FEPSwi
Will SpaceX do another Starship + Super Heavy flight test before 1 October 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-27T08:44:32
2023-10-01T15:59:00
2023-10-05T01:34:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Y6QpR3YDouqz9Ba6q5lF
Starfield vs Garfield : Who will be more popular on Jan 1st 2024?
The Cat Comic VS The most expensive Game Development Endaevour of all time... [image]Using the Above trend settings, Will the time span containing Jan1st 2024, have Starfield outperforming Garfield in search terms? In this example below, it shows the results for the span Jun11-17. [image]For Market Resolution, I will measure the span containing Jan 1st, 2024. Resolves YES if Starfield is higher Resolves NO if Garfield is higher EDIT 1: adding link EDIT 2: fixing link (should be worldwide, not US) https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=starfield,garfield&hl=en
2023-08-27T08:30:17
2024-01-01T20:59:00
2024-01-05T10:11:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yeMLtS1znykT1QT8ktUf
Will more than 2% of Britons describe themselves as 'Vegan' or 'Plant-based', according to YouGov in 2023?
Previous survey - https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2022/12/29/how-many-britons-will-attempt-vegan-diet-and-lifes This question will resolve as 'YES' if YouGov in 2023 reports that more than 2% of Britons in their polling data identify as 'Vegan' or 'Plant-based'. It will resolve as 'NO' if YouGov in 2023 that only 2% or less of Britons in their polling data identify as 'Vegan' or 'Plant-based'. This will resolve as N/A if there is no polling data done by YouGov on this. [link preview]
2023-08-27T07:12:47
2024-01-12T15:03:20
2024-01-13T03:05:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5kFCX8YfjxNCYTLXMzT9
Will GitHub have any incident on August 28th 2023?
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-08-28 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC. Will resolve to NO otherwise. Resolution times: If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe. If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
2023-08-27T06:20:48
2023-08-28T17:00:00
2023-08-29T00:39:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TvJLI5DllMPBR5mX8Rzo
Will Temu be the top free iPhone app in the United States at the end of September?
Temu is currently the top free app in the App Store. Will it remain? https://appfigures.com/top-apps/ios-app-store/united-states/iphone/top-overall [link preview]
2023-08-27T05:47:51
2023-09-30T21:02:36
2023-09-30T21:03:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NVLv74cauKzC8j1u8x1d
Will Tai Tuivasa beat Alexander Volkov at UFC 293?
Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia. If Tai Tuivasa wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Alexander Volkov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
2023-08-27T03:22:55
2023-09-09T20:44:01
2023-09-09T20:44:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gm3dhUYOfvb5OuQFX00S
Will Israel Adesanya beat Sean Strickland at UFC 293?
Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia. If Israel Adesanya wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Sean Strickland wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
2023-08-27T03:21:37
2023-09-09T21:33:17
2023-09-09T21:33:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DrzCe4XZb733jv7prdq4
Will 'Starfield' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
If 'Starfield' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Starfield' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-08-27T02:15:55
2023-11-13T09:35:00
2023-11-13T09:35:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jWygh6vqujStocOnprFC
Will Francesca Gino leave Harvard by end of 2023?
Harvard Business School admins have suspended Francesca Gino without pay over charges of data fabrication. https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/8/3/hbs-prof-lawsuit-data-fraud-defamation/ [link preview]
2023-08-26T23:20:22
2024-01-01T21:59:00
2024-01-05T00:41:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mJcGOOho0nYIk44oUhQc
Will Joe Biden be alive at noon ET on 1/20/25?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-26T23:13:52
2025-01-20T23:59:00
2025-01-21T18:24:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Zc3I5CuoJeG6dXxV7chq
Will the downtown Berkeley Target be open on the first week of April 2024?
There used to be a few convenience stores you could go to in Berkeley: a CVS, a Walgreens, and a Target. The CVS closed earlier this year, and the Walgreens closed this week. Will the Target survive? Resolves YES if there is any day during the first 7 days of April 2024 in which a member of the public can go to a Target located at 2187 Shattuck Ave and buy something.
2023-08-26T20:21:06
2024-04-02T19:04:20
2024-04-02T19:04:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qTW7ZeOLOuA7xKiKbs6y
Will Ukrainian forces attempt to retake Crimea in 2024?
Will resolve "Yes" if the following conditions apply: There is a large scale assault on Crimea by Ukraine at any time during 2024 Attempts to seriously undermine the Russian defense of Crimea by the Ukrainian military are undertaken, in preparation for a large scale assault, at any time during 2024. Will be restricted only to when an attempt to retake Crimea might happen, regardless of the outcome.
2023-08-26T16:33:26
2025-01-01T20:59:00
2025-01-04T12:13:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-D8TuEFgMKh8UirHJcpAE
Will any blockchain game surpass 1 million MAUs in terms of its on-chain activity in 2023?
For reference, the current most popular blockchain games -- Alien Worlds -- has around 300,000 MAUs as per DappRadar https://dappradar.com/rankings/games?range=30d
2023-08-26T13:41:07
2023-12-22T14:30:58
2023-12-22T14:30:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XVHTeAPvz3T8lZRNdIMb
[M2500 subsidy] Will the announcement for the next World of Warcraft expansion include a new playable race?
Will there be a promise of a new playable race when the next WoW expansion is annoucened. This is just about the annoucement, if they fail to deliver on it when the expansion launches the market will still resolve yes. Allied races will count. Something like the dracthyr count (even if they only support one class). New very different customizations for existing races does not count, it has to be an entirely new race. If they do something ambiguous like getting rid of distinct races and it is a big hodgepodge you can customize anything from this market will resolve N/A. This market will close a day after the annoucement is made. By annoucment I mean when they release details about new features are coming. If they just give us a name of the expansion that doesn't count and we'll keep waiting until they give us the big features coming. A new playable race is big enough that I expect it to be in the first wave of annoucment features, not burried in dev interviews that come out a week later. Edit: The next expansion is rumoured to be annouced at Blizzcon which is Nov 3-4th. I've updated the close date to then as that is likely when we'll hear the asnwer. If no annoucement is made during the conference I'll move back the closing date.
2023-08-26T11:54:26
2023-11-03T13:16:10
2023-11-03T13:16:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lx2z4WNrRzbduu1oqdNr
Will $TSLA close above $250 this week?
Will resolve as YES if the stock price of Tesla, Inc. is greater than $250.00 at the close of this week, Friday September 1st. Will resolve as no otherwise.
2023-08-26T10:20:24
2023-09-01T21:17:00
2023-09-01T21:17:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DpsdSlNMIrZalr65fei5
Will the Texas suffer major power cuts this winter?
Remember all those power cuts when those bitter winters kicked in? It's what can happen when you won't rely on the rest of the country for power. Will this winter there be a / set of simultaneous powercut(s) whereby >50000 hosueholds are without power. To resolve yes, I expect to see a major national news source report on it (e.g. BBC or some 'trustworthy' American source) (BTW winter counts as Fri, 22 Dec 2023 – Wed, 20 Mar 2024)
2023-08-26T10:04:57
2024-03-20T16:59:00
2024-03-21T11:33:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YI0LrtAhdJiqJS8oEiX3
Will the match between Spain and Sweden on 22 September 2023 be played without significant interruption?
With the current conflict around the Rubiales kiss, the female soccer team for Spain refuse to play until he is removed from his position. Will this conflict be resolved by their next game? Cause for YES resolution: – The game is played as planned, with the default squad. The coach does not have to still be Jorge Vilda. Causes for NO resolution: – The game is cancelled, for any reason including walkover – The game is moved to another date than Sep 22nd – At least 3 players (total) of the Spanish or Swedish 2023 World Cup squads refuse to play the game – At least 3 players (total) of the Spanish or Swedish 2023 World Cup squads are banned from playing, by either FIFA, UEFA, or the Spanish football association – ... other unforeseen significant disruption to the game. I will not bet in this market.
2023-08-26T09:30:19
2023-09-23T09:20:34
2023-09-23T09:20:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OZCcw4Fky63eVHuyk6ZK
Will Destiny and Vivek Ramaswamy talk before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-26T06:44:48
2025-01-01T14:59:00
2025-01-02T10:41:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yhBBzp2DQUf1MuFNqzVK
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or his ideas be mentioned during the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023. @EliezerYudkowsky spends a significant portion of his time attempting to publicize his views that artificial intelligence is a threat to humanity's future. This question attempts to determine whether his efforts are becoming effective at bringing the AI safety issue into mainstream policy discussion, or whether his sometimes aggressive rhetoric harms his message. This market resolves to YES if Yudkowsky or any of his unique ideas appear during the debate while it is LIVE on-air. It resolves N/A if the debate is cancelled or posponed past September 30, 2023, and NO otherwise. The following are examples of circumstances that resolve to YES: Anyone saying Yudkowsky's name Any mention of an idea that was firstly or is uniquely attributed to Yudkowsky, such as "some fear that a machine that generates paperclips could destroy the world" Any mention of Yudkowsky's books, writings, or appearances, such as "an article was published in TIME magazine threatening nuclear strikes" Candidates or moderators saying words that Yudkowsky initially coined, like "foom" The following are insufficient to resolve to YES: Questions about AI in general, such as "how will you ensure that humans are not displaced by ChatGPT?" "There were 1000 signatories to a letter" (unless Yudkowsky wrote the letter and garnered support for it) General statements about ideas that were developed before Yudkowsky's time, such as "an AI takeover could occur" Statements that any machine learning researcher would make, such as "deep learning optimizes for loss functions" If it isn't obvious whether a statement is uniquely attributed to Yudkowsky and there is controversy among bettors, I will feed the transcript of the debate into Claude 2 along with the exact text of this question. I will ask the model to resolve the market, and the model's answer will be canonical. OTHER CRAZY PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE: https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-rap-during-the-c1add16f63fa https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-speak-the-most-duri https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic RESOLUTION: I watched the entire debate, and looked through the transcript, and AI was only mentioned by Chris Christie. Christie's views were the opposite of Yudkowsky's - Christie believed that all government regulations should be removed from AI - so the market resolves to NO.
2023-08-26T05:27:40
2023-09-28T20:59:00
2023-09-29T04:03:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-14WjGaAOX7YAsv7N8aNt
Will Sneako talk to Destiny on stream before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-26T04:20:54
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-03T06:32:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JUk55uj1baQrQv7IUXNd
Will Russia host the BRICS Summit in 2024?
They are currently the host. https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/brazil-skips-hosting-brics-summit-in-2024-due-to-logistical-issues/articleshow/99249474.cms
2023-08-25T22:51:43
2024-10-24T04:54:07
2024-10-24T04:54:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Qt8DZx9mf9qSEZKgPEwm
Will the Russo-Ukrainian War end before the beginning of 2025?
Will it end at anytime between now and January 1st 2025? I'll keep this question fairly simple, and does not make any assumptions as to who the "winner" will be, or speculate how this victory may be achieved by either side. Will resolve as "Yes" if one of the following conditions are met: 1) Victory is achieved by either Ukraine or Russia, however defined, before the year 2025. 2) They agree to an armistice, for any reason, and whatever the outcome. Else it will resolve "No".
2023-08-25T20:27:04
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-10T09:51:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-K6mXkTSzFSacfzRS4gaP
Will an Open Source LLM be used by a terrorist to kill ≥100 people before the end june 2024?
E.g. Bioterrorism https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23820331/chatgpt-bioterrorism-bioweapons-artificial-inteligence-openai-terrorism
2023-08-25T17:19:06
2024-06-30T14:59:00
2024-07-02T10:34:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aLeMfcno3RioiiYfCkJ3
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 26 than it closed on August 25?
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Previous Close: $26,049.40 Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard. Q3 2023 (July/August/September) Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard: 1st place - Ṁ3,000 2nd place - Ṁ2,000 3rd place - Ṁ1,000 4th place = Ṁ500 5th place - Ṁ250 @SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market. [link preview]
2023-08-25T14:40:07
2023-08-26T16:00:00
2023-08-26T17:32:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh
Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine?
It also counts as YES if an event is moved to a venue other than the Seine river ahead of time because of water quality concerns. Background: Seine River events scrapped again, renewing doubts over Paris Olympics plan Paris Olympics promises Seine clean-up after pollution spoils triathlon | Financial Times
2023-08-25T12:59:35
2024-07-30T09:51:35
2024-07-30T09:51:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Rw1t3LQPX3PRhtq0HsPw
Will Destiny rebuild his bridge with Sneako by the end of 2023?
Resolves yes if they start talking on stream again.
2023-08-25T11:21:48
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T22:50:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nBq4VQntuXjNlovu9CMm
Will Djokovic play in the 2023 US Open Finals?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-25T10:53:30
2023-09-08T17:28:08
2023-09-08T17:28:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ycGGMktLZ5tA0t2pKJtf
Will the fed raise interest rates again prior to 01/01/2024
Background: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-rates-economy-jackson-hole-9a720711618c0cfd851b51b0786af4f0 [link preview]
2023-08-25T08:10:05
2024-01-01T20:59:00
2024-01-01T22:02:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Fy3V5hikPQxprFOKzKHG
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 28 than it closed on August 25?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. Rank---Award 1 1500 2 1000 3 750 Good luck forecasting! Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on. Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
2023-08-25T07:47:47
2023-08-28T11:00:00
2023-08-28T13:50:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2kVbhDXUPAxoIJnMnIrr
Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate nationally the day before the Iowa caucuses?
This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in National Polls" chart. Specifically, I will check the page at 9pm eastern the day before the caucus, and resolve based on the average listed there at that time, if there is a section called "Average as of today". If the section is titled "Average as of yesterday" or similar, I will check the "Average as of yesterday" on the morning of the caucus. In other cases, I will do my best to use the chart to estimate the averages on the evening before the caucus. DeSantis is currently in second place. Will he still be in second place right before the first caucuses?
2023-08-25T07:35:39
2024-01-14T21:59:00
2024-01-14T22:51:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kId2o0M2FJ1qKFOttHwf
Will the Michigan Tinnitus Device (Auricle) be released before 2025?
A University of Michigan team led by Susan Shore, Ph.D., has developed the Michigan Tinnitus Device, a novel technology that alleviates tinnitus through a sequence of auditory and somatosensory stimuli to the face or neck. https://innovation.medicine.umich.edu/portfolio_post/shore/ The device is currently known as the Michigan Tinnitus Device, but the name might change before release. Will this device be released before 2025? This includes if you have to get the treatment from a professional. It also includes a limited release, as long as it's FDA approved.
2023-08-25T07:29:28
2024-12-31T13:59:00
2025-01-02T16:59:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Cxvvr8Mpfxf70c5B9MOv
Will Donald Trump Tweet about Ukraine or Putin in 2023?
Will Donald Trump post a Tweet containing any of the following words in 2023? Putin Ukraine Zelenskyy Any misspelling (Zelensky, Ukaine, etc) or nickname (Little Vlad) will count so long as it's an unambiguous reference. Resolution notes: If Twitter change the name of Tweets to Xs, Xeets or anything else, that doesn't affect this market. If Twitter or X changes radically, this market will refer to whatever it turns into. If Twitter stops existing by the end of the year, this market will resolve to NO Trump must Tweet before midnight GMT on the evening of 31st December to meet the market's criterea
2023-08-25T07:28:10
2024-01-01T00:37:01
2024-01-01T00:37:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TqzObHsXdxmvD3lhPCcr
Will the 2024 US Presidential Nominees meet for at least one formal debate?
I am talking about the traditional ones organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates. If, for some reason, they elected not to, but a different organization (e.g. the League of Women Voters) stepped in, I would resolve that as YES if the debates are materially similar in structure and timing. While I think it'd be neat if third parties actually made it onto the stage for once, I will resolve this NO if either of the red or blue team's nominee is absent. I will not be betting on this market.
2023-08-25T06:16:38
2024-06-27T18:20:11
2024-06-27T18:20:11
yes
MANIFOLD