id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-WsZxXUlGs3QFZFzwaP4k | Will Vladimir Putin travel to a country obliged to fulfill the ICC arrest warrant while it's standing? | On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, for alleged war crimes. This has raised questions about Putin's future international travel, especially to countries that are signatories to the Rome Statute and thus oblig... | 2023-08-29T22:05:01 | 2024-09-02T12:01:11 | 2024-09-02T12:01:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dkT1degGK43373v10nUv | Will J. Powell raise interest rates by 25 bps in the FOMC meeting on September 20th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T18:13:38 | 2023-09-21T14:59:00 | 2023-09-23T10:43:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5SAV1ObLm9evdYO5DoYJ | Will there be another MAGAsurrection by the end of 2024? | January 6th was MAGAsurrection I.
[image] | 2023-08-29T17:52:03 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:49:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pUphfzQpo3K4g6SkT9H0 | Will Avi Loeb's paper on spherules from interstellar meteor IM1 be accepted for publication before 2024? | Avi Loeb, a former chair of the Harvard Astronomy Department, claims to have found fragments of an interstellar meteor, referred to as "IM1," in the Pacific Ocean. His expedition retrieved tiny metallic spheres, or spherules, which he believes are evidence of the first-known interstellar meteor.
However, the scientif... | 2023-08-29T17:18:56 | 2023-12-31T19:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:08:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QAomlQGcAkPHMTOWFPyY | Will Fani Willis be removed as Fulton County DA before the end of 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if Fulton County District Attorney Fani WIllis is removed from office in any capacity on or before December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO. | 2023-08-29T15:47:58 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T16:23:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tnWCSwZnjP8fdEJ3TCGt | Will Alireza Firouzja play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | This resolves positively if Firouzja is able to qualify and play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024
If Firouzja qualifies for but declines to partipate in the tournament, it will resolve negatively.
If Firouzja is selected by FIDE as a replacement in the ... | 2023-08-29T14:52:49 | 2024-04-02T21:59:00 | 2024-04-04T11:48:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2HfSmyXV2tF8edbuPA8x | Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Oct 2023? | Data source for resolution: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
[link preview] | 2023-08-29T14:50:19 | 2023-11-02T00:12:21 | 2023-11-02T00:12:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UPHOBNEZtKdDdqYTZKtb | Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open? | The market will resolve to “Yes” if Novak Djokovic wins the 2023 US Open Men's Singles tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If at any point it becomes impossible for Novak Djokovic to win in Men's Singles based on the rules of the US Open, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution s... | 2023-08-29T13:36:58 | 2023-09-10T17:44:36 | 2023-09-10T17:44:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k8bHrkkfJRcGjl7OrJlR | Will SBF get Adderall in jail? | If it is learned SBF has received Adderall between August 24 and September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, then this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it is learned that SBF received Adderall within this market's timeframe after this market's timeframe has expired, it will have no be... | 2023-08-29T13:34:21 | 2023-09-26T01:21:28 | 2023-09-26T01:21:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RgDAkuQybaKm1eeOp0cU | Will Ron DeSantis drop out of the Presidential race before the Republican National Convention, slated for 7/15-18/ 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T13:21:09 | 2024-01-21T12:55:00 | 2024-01-21T12:55:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QCltHXwl3uJxi4HngaCW | Will Donald Trump receive 20% or more of the black vote in the 2024 election? | [image]There's been a Fox News poll screenshot going around Twitter for the past few days showing that currently 20% of black voters favour Trump.
Will this 20% become to fruition? Market will resolve as YES if official election data released confirms >=20%. If not, market will resolve NO | 2023-08-29T12:02:47 | 2024-11-24T11:25:27 | 2024-11-24T11:25:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o2uJR5qN42uyGr7RpA0S | Will Elon Musk make ANY changes to the blocking feature on Twitter by 1st October 2023 | Such as not being able to block advertising accounts. | 2023-08-29T11:21:28 | 2023-10-02T11:59:00 | 2023-10-03T12:46:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zUpxNozsLuQTt1zOg7vr | Will the AMPTP reach agreements with both the WGA and SAG-AFTRA to end their current strikes before November 1st 2023? | Market resolves by EOD (11:59PM PST) on Tuesday, October 31st 2023. | 2023-08-29T10:05:54 | 2023-11-01T23:59:00 | 2023-11-02T05:12:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NFVhL93LnbF7qHoFbXzB | Will there be a major push for healthcare reform in the US in 2023? | "Major" means the white house and congressional leadership are backing it | 2023-08-29T09:59:02 | 2023-12-29T21:59:00 | 2024-01-04T03:58:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sn2oFNhyjy8nJPBHn5oJ | Will Kanye 'Ye' West release a new album by the end of the year? (2023) | There have been unconfirmed rumours about a new Kanye West album in the works and being potentially close to release.
An album in this market is qualified by any mixtape or EP as long as it has more than 5 full-length tracks (excluding shorter interludes, in the vein of Donda chant or skits for example).
In the eve... | 2023-08-29T09:51:21 | 2023-12-31T16:07:15 | 2023-12-31T16:07:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r7yav03fzqevJVMExggm | Will Trump's January 6th trial begin as scheduled on March 4th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T09:40:57 | 2024-03-04T20:59:00 | 2024-03-09T22:04:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1DLwc6lfVvAuxE3Ld1Ld | Will Vladimir Putin visit China in 2023? | The answer depends on credible news reports and requires verification from at least two sources. | 2023-08-29T09:21:42 | 2023-10-17T01:00:18 | 2023-10-17T01:00:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L3PX8O2Xj74NANBL7QfY | Will Biden refuse to debate Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T09:08:44 | 2024-06-27T19:31:20 | 2024-06-27T19:31:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jotgxI8XwgqENimbDNP8 | Will the Colorado Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election? | The prevailing legal theory at the moment is that Trump is automatically disqualified by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This can apparently be unilaterally imposed by the Secretary of State in any individual state. This resolves YES if the Colorado Secretary of State makes a choice to enforce this constitutional prov... | 2023-08-29T09:01:06 | 2024-03-04T07:43:44 | 2024-03-04T07:43:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-emSKOQxMBoVju1aqus2u | [Ṁ100 subsidy] Will Ron DeSantis be publicly criticized by a GOP rival for his handling of Hurricane Idalia? | By close time. At least one rival is sufficient to resolve YES.
GOP rival = anyone currently running for the GOP nomination in the primaries who is considered a 'major candidate' in polls according to 538.
Publicly criticized = any statement made publicly, in writing or orally, with journalists, as a press release,... | 2023-08-29T08:15:02 | 2023-09-05T10:02:51 | 2023-09-05T10:02:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TpjonkYYuttKXiyfNOHd | Will Trump pick Vivek Ramaswamy as his Vice President for 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T07:03:29 | 2024-07-15T15:35:00 | 2024-07-15T15:35:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rpLaeFhymGA3nvYjOBA7 | Will Xi and Kishida hold a bilateral meeting at the G20? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T06:33:14 | 2023-09-11T20:59:00 | 2023-09-11T21:13:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kKSxb0K3gnNf7quWtjZ9 | Will Xi and Modi hold a bilateral meeting at the G20? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T06:26:55 | 2023-09-11T20:59:00 | 2023-09-11T21:14:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bI6J7KYJQIABgewr8DNH | 🇺🇸 Will Donald Trump be the 47th president of the U.S.A.? | Simple, if Trump get elected resolves YES
Trump not elected, resolves NO | 2023-08-29T06:21:44 | 2024-11-06T07:59:00 | 2024-11-06T09:13:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ffO06T9PkyQaegfszxCu | Will Rosalyn Carter be alive on 12/31/2023? | Her local time. | 2023-08-29T05:46:44 | 2023-11-19T13:26:46 | 2023-11-19T13:26:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JhKgdArS4LGaG4Ru31SZ | Will at least one EU country reintroduce COVID-19 lockdowns between the posting of this question and the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-29T01:38:17 | 2025-01-01T10:33:56 | 2025-01-01T10:33:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-So2UwzhPoYUDv7bkpyse | Will there be another coup in Africa during 2023? | Following Niger. | 2023-08-29T01:17:41 | 2023-08-31T01:18:39 | 2023-08-31T01:18:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yr5r5nXTOmyVUKqmYOCI | Will AMD have improved it's graphics card market share as measured by the Steam Hardware Survey at the end of the year? | Steam conducts monthly hardware surveys, the latest of which(at time of writing) measures AMD's market share at 15.93% amongst it's sample of users.
[image]The latest results can be found at:
https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/
The results at time of posting are archived here:
https://archive.is/fo5fd
At the ... | 2023-08-28T21:54:22 | 2024-01-01T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T19:29:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-R8jFJ8e7IKjJA8ZmllvS | Will Valve officially launch Counter-Strike 2 before Oct.? | Seattle time(where the Valve is located)
I think that generally an open beta is not considered as the official launch of a game, even though it is open for all players. So I suggest resolving this to 'no' if we get an open beta and only to 'yes' if they clearly mark it as "full release"/"official launch" or something... | 2023-08-28T19:43:11 | 2023-09-27T21:20:49 | 2023-09-27T21:20:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OHzP2Emf5LooRNJXJyzh | Will Haley catch up to Ramaswamy before the second GOP primary debate? | According to 538's Who's ahead in National Polls page, will Nikki Haley tie with or surpass Vivek Ramaswamy before the second GOP debate?
As of August 28, Nikki Haley was at 5.4%, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 10.1%.
This will resolve "Yes" if Nikki Haley ties with or surpasses Vivek Ramaswamy according to the 538 page befo... | 2023-08-28T19:40:18 | 2023-09-26T16:22:12 | 2023-09-26T16:22:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U6BNoYG47zD0Dv7UPH08 | Will the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs this season? | Resolves yes if according to mainstream sports media the Seattle mariners are participating in the MLB playoffs this season. Resolves no if this does not occur. | 2023-08-28T18:38:49 | 2023-10-01T00:42:48 | 2023-10-01T00:43:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2peum1oabsgPdhOieh29 | Will mistral.ai have a product by the end of 2023? | Will the well funded French startup deliver a product (e.g. a LLM or a generative model for images) by the end of 2023?
The product must be accessible to the general public either via a web interface or an API or both. | 2023-08-28T18:29:58 | 2023-10-09T11:20:50 | 2023-10-09T11:20:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QpdA4W9Qw8me5mCjoZob | Will MDMA be rescheduled by the DEA before the end of 2024? | MDMA is currently a schedule 1 drug in the US, but is also being studied as a medicine. | 2023-08-28T17:39:39 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-10T21:47:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z4vvygPBYl6R4nipsiP7 | Will Amazon be worth more than $140 a share on January first? | resolves yes if Amazon closes above $140 per share on January 1 2024 | 2023-08-28T17:18:42 | 2023-12-29T20:25:59 | 2023-12-29T20:25:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yUUEEFPE7E3dGpSw93DL | Will King Harald V of Norway be alive on January 1st 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-28T13:59:16 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T19:54:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rIx97MsUi0X8pwFrHtyH | Will OpenAI announce a GPT-4 successor shortly after Google releases Gemini? | "Shortly after" being after <1 month, counting from the day Gemini is available in any form (Bard, GCP, etc) to external users (can be behind a waitlist). | 2023-08-28T13:52:34 | 2024-01-06T06:52:02 | 2024-01-06T06:52:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bUbo5gRTnjQlMLbDqz5I | Will a new destiny video reach 500k views in September 2023? | Resolves yes if a video posted in September on destiny's main channel reaches 500k views before 1/10/2023
Livestreams and Youtube shorts don't count. | 2023-08-28T13:29:29 | 2023-09-30T23:59:00 | 2023-10-01T00:07:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5ppGYlmV9EAgzpM0yrsB | Will Trump still be alive by 2025? | Resolves yes if Trump is still living in 2025 | 2023-08-28T12:53:14 | 2025-01-15T22:59:00 | 2025-01-31T15:58:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bTbTeO9pQH4EHsMdXVXO | Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record before October 2023? | As august is coming to an end, and Forsen hasnt gotten the record yet we need a similar question for September.
Forsen and xQc are both variety streamers who often play competitive games. But sometimes they take a break to play more creative and fun titles. One of the games both decided to try out when their own favor... | 2023-08-28T12:45:28 | 2023-09-30T15:07:27 | 2023-09-30T15:07:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XMdnd0Dh52Jn9RzYoZdz | Will Nicki Haley poll higher than Vivek Ramaswamy by January 1st 2024 for the Republican Primary? | As meaured by the average of polls reported by https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
[link preview] | 2023-08-28T10:46:51 | 2023-09-26T21:30:26 | 2023-09-26T21:30:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dhzRRG3KZot0gqpYETa7 | Will the Black Sea Grain Deal be renewed in 2023? | Resolves yes if there is an agreement involving Russia to let ships come into Ukrainian ports and export grain. Otherwise, it doesn't have to be substantially similar to the initial grain deal, nor be explicitly called the "Black Sea Grain Initiative" or "Grain Deal".
Upd: If an agreement is reached and formalized bef... | 2023-08-28T10:26:13 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T02:44:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g9ImXdg2gQCrBOIOX4YX | Will any state disqualify Trump from the 2024 primaries? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump is disqualified and excluded from or removed from the ballots of any states in the US Republican Presidential primaries for 2024. Includes caucuses and such.
If there are appeals, injunctions, etc, this resolves based on the final decision.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will not bet further o... | 2023-08-28T08:08:43 | 2024-03-08T06:43:39 | 2024-03-08T06:43:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JqmSQBKrTJJ7LkGhIugl | Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard? | Resolves YES if 7 days after the first 400B+ open source Llama 3 model appears on the lmsys leaderboard, it is ranked higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09.
Resolves NO if it ranks lower or if no such model is released in 2024.
Resolution of this market is delegated to @jskf
https://chat.lmsys.org/ | 2023-08-28T07:56:33 | 2024-08-06T09:00:00 | 2024-08-06T13:02:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VWF8Dr9GSOWNxlQCBNer | Will the S&P 500 close higher on September 1 than it closed on August 31? [September Leaderboard Start] | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of September (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a priz... | 2023-08-28T06:45:07 | 2023-09-01T11:00:00 | 2023-09-01T20:45:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C2VgJJ2CmPFDcmTTVdvt | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 31 than it closed on August 30? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---... | 2023-08-28T06:42:42 | 2023-08-31T11:00:00 | 2023-08-31T15:38:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tjjr99PiRN4tcqCpxqnK | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 30 than it closed on August 29? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---... | 2023-08-28T06:42:00 | 2023-08-30T11:00:00 | 2023-08-30T16:31:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-owVkNpoWKWhxTguz2lho | Will Starfield have >800k concurrent Steam players by Sept. 13th? | https://steamdb.info/app/1716740/charts/
I will check all time peak reported here on 13th | 2023-08-28T04:33:09 | 2023-09-13T10:55:35 | 2023-09-13T10:55:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kttD0rud9RZ3PZ5ZT8bX | Will Tucker Carlson Interview Vladimir Putin before 2025 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T21:04:23 | 2024-02-09T08:43:58 | 2024-02-09T08:43:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZScvTvbG7imQ4Kzjt8ac | Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T19:47:18 | 2023-09-04T04:18:07 | 2023-09-04T04:18:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CqwjXh10vPYwNZiFz7Ar | Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person by the end of November? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T19:46:45 | 2023-09-04T04:17:34 | 2023-09-04T04:17:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g5gTKZOFvPMdxBwUEAZA | Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person by the end of October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T19:45:37 | 2023-09-04T04:17:14 | 2023-09-04T04:17:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c4oYIWcF9uma4Xh45kL6 | Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person during September? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T19:44:09 | 2023-09-04T04:16:29 | 2023-09-04T04:16:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DJaYXZJGgMMduQYn5nIp | Will Trump post again on x.com before September 30th. | We all saw Trump post his mugshot on x.com. Will he post again on x.com, before September 30th? | 2023-08-27T19:42:01 | 2023-09-30T21:59:00 | 2023-09-30T22:19:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FdlL3PP4JoJcXIWbznx7 | Will Indonesia join BRICS before 2030? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T19:16:57 | 2025-01-11T21:22:14 | 2025-01-11T21:22:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rCs5bbW2EmtD7NsDNOy4 | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of April 2024? | Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Go... | 2023-08-27T19:02:22 | 2024-04-30T09:59:00 | 2024-05-02T21:19:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JDusk0Xsqzq1ixptniKS | Will Michelle Obama run in the 2024 Democratic primary? | This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
... | 2023-08-27T17:10:58 | 2024-08-05T16:43:33 | 2024-08-05T16:43:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-83N0U1na7J8t2H8mpfC4 | Will Donald Trump's polling average fall below 45% during the primaries? | Resolves according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/.
Market resolves NO once Donald Trump becomes the nominee.
Resolves YES if at any point (after market creation) before then, his 538 polling average drops below 45.0%, or he drops out of the race/dies. | 2023-08-27T17:07:38 | 2024-03-20T11:33:15 | 2024-03-20T11:33:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9fLxE94FKDoGUDDe2HDP | Will Trump lose the 2024 popular vote by at least 10M votes? | This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]YES if not nominated | 2023-08-27T17:05:21 | 2024-11-06T09:16:04 | 2024-11-06T09:16:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UsY8wRU89oCttWpfBJj9 | Will Trump refuse to debate Biden before the 2024 presidential election? | This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
... | 2023-08-27T16:54:25 | 2024-06-28T00:40:55 | 2024-06-28T00:40:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-01peMgI80uOJEJsVRc7G | Will Trump harshly criticize Vivek Ramaswamy before Nov. 2024 election? | This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump, for whatever reason, harshly criticizes Vivek Ramaswamy before the November 2024 Presidential election. For example, he might harshly criticize him for:
1 Gaining in the polls relative to him
2 Taking up too much of the spotlight relative to him
3 Disagreeing on some pol... | 2023-08-27T16:45:27 | 2024-01-15T09:51:50 | 2024-01-15T09:51:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5LMtbQdW7OLA9RepTSGQ | Will Trump debate Chris Christie before the 2024 presidential election? | This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
... | 2023-08-27T16:27:41 | 2024-11-07T13:57:24 | 2024-11-07T13:57:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vQdiFJqaSglwzrsxFSB8 | Will X implement voice/video calls before EOY 2023? | Resolves YES if X (former Twitter) implements voice/video calls before EOY 2023. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2023-08-27T15:50:32 | 2023-10-26T22:12:02 | 2023-10-26T22:12:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SsVeT7k568iZKVAQnhUf | Will a Bitcoin spot ETF be approved by the SEC during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T13:48:25 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:49:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sU3CLVirgQpQNTStRbmy | Will Trump be indicted for misuse of PAC or campaign contributions to pay for personal legal expenses? | I imagine he will be able to claim he was acting as a candidate in most of the cases, but probably not the documents case. The way I understand the law he is currently basically ignoring it but its complicated for sure. Resolves YES if by the end of 2024 is charged for actions taken since he officially declared his can... | 2023-08-27T12:06:47 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T12:50:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ecdMcJSoorwcvAh60GDO | Will Donald Trump win more than half of the total delegates on offer at the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T10:51:50 | 2024-01-19T04:54:16 | 2024-01-19T04:54:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fy8vZf8imPobQW9DRfyR | Will "Joe Biden Never Be Impeached"? | This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of m... | 2023-08-27T09:49:03 | 2025-01-20T08:04:01 | 2025-01-20T08:04:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bYo7y9hkEWvLTrw6oA6d | Will Tropical Storm Idalia become a Major Hurricane (Cat. III+)? | Resolves YES if at any point Tropical Storm Idalia reaches Cat. III strength as defined by the National Hurricane Center. | 2023-08-27T09:14:39 | 2023-08-29T22:58:29 | 2023-08-29T22:58:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VizTaP6qnkrKO3FEPSwi | Will SpaceX do another Starship + Super Heavy flight test before 1 October 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-27T08:44:32 | 2023-10-01T15:59:00 | 2023-10-05T01:34:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y6QpR3YDouqz9Ba6q5lF | Starfield vs Garfield : Who will be more popular on Jan 1st 2024? | The Cat Comic VS The most expensive Game Development Endaevour of all time...
[image]Using the Above trend settings, Will the time span containing Jan1st 2024, have Starfield outperforming Garfield in search terms?
In this example below, it shows the results for the span Jun11-17.
[image]For Market Resolution, I wil... | 2023-08-27T08:30:17 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-05T10:11:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yeMLtS1znykT1QT8ktUf | Will more than 2% of Britons describe themselves as 'Vegan' or 'Plant-based', according to YouGov in 2023? | Previous survey - https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2022/12/29/how-many-britons-will-attempt-vegan-diet-and-lifes
This question will resolve as 'YES' if YouGov in 2023 reports that more than 2% of Britons in their polling data identify as 'Vegan' or 'Plant-based'.
It will resolve as 'NO' if YouGov ... | 2023-08-27T07:12:47 | 2024-01-12T15:03:20 | 2024-01-13T03:05:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5kFCX8YfjxNCYTLXMzT9 | Will GitHub have any incident on August 28th 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-08-28 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after e... | 2023-08-27T06:20:48 | 2023-08-28T17:00:00 | 2023-08-29T00:39:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TvJLI5DllMPBR5mX8Rzo | Will Temu be the top free iPhone app in the United States at the end of September? | Temu is currently the top free app in the App Store. Will it remain?
https://appfigures.com/top-apps/ios-app-store/united-states/iphone/top-overall
[link preview] | 2023-08-27T05:47:51 | 2023-09-30T21:02:36 | 2023-09-30T21:03:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NVLv74cauKzC8j1u8x1d | Will Tai Tuivasa beat Alexander Volkov at UFC 293? | Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia.
If Tai Tuivasa wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Alexander Volkov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared... | 2023-08-27T03:22:55 | 2023-09-09T20:44:01 | 2023-09-09T20:44:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gm3dhUYOfvb5OuQFX00S | Will Israel Adesanya beat Sean Strickland at UFC 293? | Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia.
If Israel Adesanya wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Sean Strickland wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is de... | 2023-08-27T03:21:37 | 2023-09-09T21:33:17 | 2023-09-09T21:33:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DrzCe4XZb733jv7prdq4 | Will 'Starfield' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | If 'Starfield' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Starfield' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-08-27T02:15:55 | 2023-11-13T09:35:00 | 2023-11-13T09:35:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jWygh6vqujStocOnprFC | Will Francesca Gino leave Harvard by end of 2023? | Harvard Business School admins have suspended Francesca Gino without pay over charges of data fabrication.
https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/8/3/hbs-prof-lawsuit-data-fraud-defamation/
[link preview] | 2023-08-26T23:20:22 | 2024-01-01T21:59:00 | 2024-01-05T00:41:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mJcGOOho0nYIk44oUhQc | Will Joe Biden be alive at noon ET on 1/20/25? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-26T23:13:52 | 2025-01-20T23:59:00 | 2025-01-21T18:24:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zc3I5CuoJeG6dXxV7chq | Will the downtown Berkeley Target be open on the first week of April 2024? | There used to be a few convenience stores you could go to in Berkeley: a CVS, a Walgreens, and a Target. The CVS closed earlier this year, and the Walgreens closed this week. Will the Target survive?
Resolves YES if there is any day during the first 7 days of April 2024 in which a member of the public can go to a Targ... | 2023-08-26T20:21:06 | 2024-04-02T19:04:20 | 2024-04-02T19:04:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qTW7ZeOLOuA7xKiKbs6y | Will Ukrainian forces attempt to retake Crimea in 2024? | Will resolve "Yes" if the following conditions apply:
There is a large scale assault on Crimea by Ukraine at any time during 2024
Attempts to seriously undermine the Russian defense of Crimea by the Ukrainian military are undertaken, in preparation for a large scale assault, at any time during 2024.
Will be restrict... | 2023-08-26T16:33:26 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T12:13:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-D8TuEFgMKh8UirHJcpAE | Will any blockchain game surpass 1 million MAUs in terms of its on-chain activity in 2023? | For reference, the current most popular blockchain games -- Alien Worlds -- has around 300,000 MAUs as per DappRadar
https://dappradar.com/rankings/games?range=30d | 2023-08-26T13:41:07 | 2023-12-22T14:30:58 | 2023-12-22T14:30:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XVHTeAPvz3T8lZRNdIMb | [M2500 subsidy] Will the announcement for the next World of Warcraft expansion include a new playable race? | Will there be a promise of a new playable race when the next WoW expansion is annoucened. This is just about the annoucement, if they fail to deliver on it when the expansion launches the market will still resolve yes. Allied races will count. Something like the dracthyr count (even if they only support one class). New... | 2023-08-26T11:54:26 | 2023-11-03T13:16:10 | 2023-11-03T13:16:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lx2z4WNrRzbduu1oqdNr | Will $TSLA close above $250 this week? | Will resolve as YES if the stock price of Tesla, Inc. is greater than $250.00 at the close of this week, Friday September 1st. Will resolve as no otherwise. | 2023-08-26T10:20:24 | 2023-09-01T21:17:00 | 2023-09-01T21:17:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DpsdSlNMIrZalr65fei5 | Will the Texas suffer major power cuts this winter? | Remember all those power cuts when those bitter winters kicked in? It's what can happen when you won't rely on the rest of the country for power.
Will this winter there be a / set of simultaneous powercut(s) whereby >50000 hosueholds are without power.
To resolve yes, I expect to see a major national news source repo... | 2023-08-26T10:04:57 | 2024-03-20T16:59:00 | 2024-03-21T11:33:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YI0LrtAhdJiqJS8oEiX3 | Will the match between Spain and Sweden on 22 September 2023 be played without significant interruption? | With the current conflict around the Rubiales kiss, the female soccer team for Spain refuse to play until he is removed from his position. Will this conflict be resolved by their next game?
Cause for YES resolution:
– The game is played as planned, with the default squad. The coach does not have to still be Jorge Vild... | 2023-08-26T09:30:19 | 2023-09-23T09:20:34 | 2023-09-23T09:20:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OZCcw4Fky63eVHuyk6ZK | Will Destiny and Vivek Ramaswamy talk before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-26T06:44:48 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T10:41:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yhBBzp2DQUf1MuFNqzVK | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or his ideas be mentioned during the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate? | A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
@EliezerYudkowsky spends a significant portion of his time attempting to publicize his views that artificial intelligence is a threat to humanity's future. This question attempts to determine whether his efforts are becoming effective at bringing the AI sa... | 2023-08-26T05:27:40 | 2023-09-28T20:59:00 | 2023-09-29T04:03:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-14WjGaAOX7YAsv7N8aNt | Will Sneako talk to Destiny on stream before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-26T04:20:54 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-03T06:32:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JUk55uj1baQrQv7IUXNd | Will Russia host the BRICS Summit in 2024? | They are currently the host.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/brazil-skips-hosting-brics-summit-in-2024-due-to-logistical-issues/articleshow/99249474.cms | 2023-08-25T22:51:43 | 2024-10-24T04:54:07 | 2024-10-24T04:54:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qt8DZx9mf9qSEZKgPEwm | Will the Russo-Ukrainian War end before the beginning of 2025? | Will it end at anytime between now and January 1st 2025?
I'll keep this question fairly simple, and does not make any assumptions as to who the "winner" will be, or speculate how this victory may be achieved by either side.
Will resolve as "Yes" if one of the following conditions are met:
1) Victory is achieved by... | 2023-08-25T20:27:04 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-10T09:51:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K6mXkTSzFSacfzRS4gaP | Will an Open Source LLM be used by a terrorist to kill ≥100 people before the end june 2024? | E.g. Bioterrorism
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23820331/chatgpt-bioterrorism-bioweapons-artificial-inteligence-openai-terrorism | 2023-08-25T17:19:06 | 2024-06-30T14:59:00 | 2024-07-02T10:34:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aLeMfcno3RioiiYfCkJ3 | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 26 than it closed on August 25? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $26,049.40
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/Sept... | 2023-08-25T14:40:07 | 2023-08-26T16:00:00 | 2023-08-26T17:32:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh | Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine? | It also counts as YES if an event is moved to a venue other than the Seine river ahead of time because of water quality concerns.
Background:
Seine River events scrapped again, renewing doubts over Paris Olympics plan
Paris Olympics promises Seine clean-up after pollution spoils triathlon | Financial Times | 2023-08-25T12:59:35 | 2024-07-30T09:51:35 | 2024-07-30T09:51:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rw1t3LQPX3PRhtq0HsPw | Will Destiny rebuild his bridge with Sneako by the end of 2023? | Resolves yes if they start talking on stream again. | 2023-08-25T11:21:48 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:50:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nBq4VQntuXjNlovu9CMm | Will Djokovic play in the 2023 US Open Finals? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-25T10:53:30 | 2023-09-08T17:28:08 | 2023-09-08T17:28:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ycGGMktLZ5tA0t2pKJtf | Will the fed raise interest rates again prior to 01/01/2024 | Background: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-rates-economy-jackson-hole-9a720711618c0cfd851b51b0786af4f0
[link preview] | 2023-08-25T08:10:05 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T22:02:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fy3V5hikPQxprFOKzKHG | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 28 than it closed on August 25? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---... | 2023-08-25T07:47:47 | 2023-08-28T11:00:00 | 2023-08-28T13:50:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2kVbhDXUPAxoIJnMnIrr | Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate nationally the day before the Iowa caucuses? | This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in National Polls" chart. Specifically, I will check the page at 9pm eastern the day before the caucus, and resolve based on the average listed there at that time, if there is a section called "Average as of today". If the section is titled "Aver... | 2023-08-25T07:35:39 | 2024-01-14T21:59:00 | 2024-01-14T22:51:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kId2o0M2FJ1qKFOttHwf | Will the Michigan Tinnitus Device (Auricle) be released before 2025? | A University of Michigan team led by Susan Shore, Ph.D., has developed the Michigan Tinnitus Device, a novel technology that alleviates tinnitus through a sequence of auditory and somatosensory stimuli to the face or neck.
https://innovation.medicine.umich.edu/portfolio_post/shore/
The device is currently known as th... | 2023-08-25T07:29:28 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:59:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cxvvr8Mpfxf70c5B9MOv | Will Donald Trump Tweet about Ukraine or Putin in 2023? | Will Donald Trump post a Tweet containing any of the following words in 2023?
Putin
Ukraine
Zelenskyy
Any misspelling (Zelensky, Ukaine, etc) or nickname (Little Vlad) will count so long as it's an unambiguous reference.
Resolution notes:
If Twitter change the name of Tweets to Xs, Xeets or anything else, that do... | 2023-08-25T07:28:10 | 2024-01-01T00:37:01 | 2024-01-01T00:37:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TqzObHsXdxmvD3lhPCcr | Will the 2024 US Presidential Nominees meet for at least one formal debate? | I am talking about the traditional ones organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates. If, for some reason, they elected not to, but a different organization (e.g. the League of Women Voters) stepped in, I would resolve that as YES if the debates are materially similar in structure and timing.
While I think it'... | 2023-08-25T06:16:38 | 2024-06-27T18:20:11 | 2024-06-27T18:20:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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