id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ptFDUSXkPXNmft3gyUA6 | Will Donald Trump win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate? | A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as refer... | 2023-08-25T06:11:53 | 2023-09-28T20:59:00 | 2023-09-29T05:55:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hDPN780rgfhnMPLqaMD1 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy become the #2 polling candidate anytime before the second GOP debate? | This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in National Polls" chart section titled "Average as of Yesterday".
As of August 24, 2023, Vivek Ramaswamy currently polls at 10.3%. That puts him in third place behind Ron Desantis (14.8%) and Donald Trump (51.6%).
At any point before the next ... | 2023-08-25T05:58:09 | 2023-09-27T18:00:00 | 2023-09-27T18:01:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Ev8L7bCzsTDEJtC8Bfm | Will Donald Tusk become Polish Prime Minister by 31 March 2024? | Idea is whether the opposition can form a government that is led by Tusk after the upcoming 15 Oct general elections in Poland. There is a time buffer in case that government formation drags out into 2024. | 2023-08-25T05:05:49 | 2023-12-12T12:56:14 | 2023-12-12T12:56:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6LzyyDtI7hgb2ALilJLb | Will KSI beat Tommy Fury on October 14th? | Resolves as N/A if it's a draw | 2023-08-25T05:05:17 | 2023-10-14T16:16:16 | 2023-10-14T16:16:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PCHsFsOiiK4ekwH0Fr21 | Will Nikki Haley win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate? | A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if Nikki Haley wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as refere... | 2023-08-25T04:40:40 | 2023-09-28T20:59:00 | 2023-09-29T05:40:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-js7YoP8Gko0h1EKEJVKK | Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023? | Resolves yes if Wagner group still maintains some form of operations in the Middle East/Africa/Russia/Eastern Europe etc. resolves no if Wagner group dissolves/is incorporated by the Russian millitary. | 2023-08-25T03:15:43 | 2023-12-31T11:08:47 | 2023-12-31T11:08:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9PvdCvtEaBddbRDoCEI5 | Will Donald Trump’s favorability on 538 be above 40% before Sep 5th? | Sep 5th being enough time for polling after the mugshot release to take place.
Resolves YES if Trump's favorability gets above 40% at any point before Sep 5. It is currently 39.7%, so this question is basically "will it go up".
Otherwise, resolves NO.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-... | 2023-08-25T00:02:21 | 2023-09-05T08:07:16 | 2023-09-05T08:07:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-udqMIv7BG6uyAeFwLaDZ | Will Trump tweet a funny banger in his inimitable style again? | Subjective
I am not a fan but he did know how to write a funny tweet
If he does it again with new content through 2023 this is a yes | 2023-08-24T22:58:00 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-02T00:30:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a1dxc9TTHXEbg7FABI2S | Will Trump hold a Twitter space in 2023? | Resolves as YES if a Twitter Space, hosted by @realDonaldTrump, occurs at any time in 2023; otherwise resolves as NO. | 2023-08-24T20:53:54 | 2024-01-01T13:59:00 | 2024-01-04T20:44:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NfFnvEtT91Ko2eAjOqpq | Will Trump tweet again before Sept 1st, 2023? | Resolves as YES if a verifiable tweet, from @realDonaldTrump, is posted from the time of the creation of the market and before Sept 1st, 2023; otherwise resolves as NO. | 2023-08-24T20:46:04 | 2023-09-01T05:21:21 | 2023-09-01T05:21:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ezeFXJkZBSQGcVSgYB2H | Will BRICS announce Indonesia is joining as a member before 2026? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-24T20:44:29 | 2025-01-13T18:50:15 | 2025-01-13T18:50:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q9UVLZLvz3xx5PnjDSEH | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 25 than it closed on August 24? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $26,163.40
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/Sept... | 2023-08-24T19:58:26 | 2023-08-25T16:00:00 | 2023-08-25T17:21:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YWAj6Kp3lvQ6ovJ9IbDC | Will Trump tweet again through September 1 | Midnight pst
Tweet, reply, quote tweet all count | 2023-08-24T19:33:51 | 2023-09-02T08:41:29 | 2023-09-02T08:41:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0mAB1JiDr9or2PAfGmnp | Will Trump smile in his Mugshot? | Easy one to resolve here, resolves in 24hrs N/A if no Mugshot by Aug 26
[image] | 2023-08-24T16:21:11 | 2023-08-25T03:58:56 | 2023-08-25T03:58:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Yx94wnkLXwLjE1BvoHMC | Has a Chinese submarine crashed in the Strait of Taiwan? | Xi skipped an important speech this week at the BRIC summit and there are lots of rumors this could be why. Some say the entire Chinese crew was killed. Resolves YES if confirmed true by the end of the year. | 2023-08-24T16:17:13 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:19:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oKdjBUdmRnmgUmoMJjuo | Will the Trump Mugshot become a God-Level meme? | God-Level Meme: A meme that achieves unparalleled recognition and influence within a specified timeframe, characterized by the following criteria:
Popularity: Shared, liked, or commented on by a significant number of users across various social media platforms, reaching a predetermined threshold (e.g., a million share... | 2023-08-24T16:15:09 | 2023-09-25T15:59:00 | 2023-10-01T07:56:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gy9aSVyuqyMc2UAllvB8 | Will Counter Strike 2 be available to the public by October 1st, 2023? | If Counter Strike 2 is available for everyone to download before or on October 1st, 2023 this market resolves to YES.
If the game is not available by October first, this market resolves to NO. | 2023-08-24T16:02:56 | 2023-09-27T15:14:45 | 2023-09-27T15:14:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-d6YsiecZtRC54WV0g78m | Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers speak at an international conference through 2024 | Any of the 7 people listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99
The conference must be attended by at least 100 researchers
It must happen before EOY 2024
They must speak about LK-99 | 2023-08-24T15:19:08 | 2024-03-04T15:42:57 | 2024-03-04T15:42:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DLBDST02XrJ2ssSmBy5L | Will destiny reach 702k subscribers in August? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
@/CourierSix/will-destiny-reach-750k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-f62d9ac83d07@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-706k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-703k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-702k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-desti... | 2023-08-24T13:53:11 | 2023-09-01T00:00:00 | 2023-09-01T00:31:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CYAajmUqte2oufmUBBdO | Will GitHub have any incident on August 25th 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-08-25 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after e... | 2023-08-24T12:21:35 | 2023-08-25T17:00:00 | 2023-08-25T23:44:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ENr9QqOAAmULxOiaFzDc | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Driver Championship at the Japanese Grand Prix (Suzuka)? | Resolves YES if he is not the champion before the weekend but scores enough points (or other drivers fail to score) where it becomes impossible for anyone else to catch him. | 2023-08-24T09:53:01 | 2023-09-17T11:19:15 | 2023-09-17T11:19:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w1BxPBhdsAxXYBC28eXL | Will McLaren score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if McLaren scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints | 2023-08-24T09:51:23 | 2023-10-29T16:59:34 | 2023-10-29T16:59:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wnAXBzDvvD7QQt3Zopws | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race | 2023-08-24T09:51:21 | 2023-10-29T14:05:32 | 2023-10-29T14:05:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bqSmW62b8zwRDA4JWo4w | Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:51:19 | 2023-10-29T15:31:06 | 2023-10-29T15:31:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6662dnD5r2j3RoJFxRhm | Will Lando Norris finish in the top 6 places at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | Driver must be classified in one of the first six positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:51:15 | 2023-10-29T15:42:50 | 2023-10-29T15:42:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VKyq3l6cabuTV6Ug7BuA | Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:51:13 | 2023-10-29T16:44:02 | 2023-10-29T16:44:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tsWtVgJCLpg7Ngb7oM9i | Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:51:12 | 2023-10-29T14:04:50 | 2023-10-29T14:04:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sTGblBU0kLUgRVgbCbSw | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:51:11 | 2023-10-29T15:43:46 | 2023-10-29T15:43:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TqvOoOlINEe7yKdg9E36 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix? | The race will take place on October 29, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:51:09 | 2023-10-29T15:43:13 | 2023-10-29T15:43:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aADZipwHR3aW93GBXfZ9 | Will Alex Albon finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:49:39 | 2023-10-22T13:56:37 | 2023-10-22T13:56:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uOfKXFIO8kCFSXkgo3L3 | Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:49:37 | 2023-10-25T21:22:38 | 2023-10-25T21:22:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JfPIvMt9blh1bRQj2gPL | Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:49:29 | 2023-10-22T13:43:06 | 2023-10-22T13:43:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7APpRJHNSvSXEr8xcH4M | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:49:28 | 2023-10-22T13:43:52 | 2023-10-22T13:43:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u5oJ5ylTJkwD2KKbEbWu | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)? | The race will take place on October 22, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:49:25 | 2023-10-22T13:40:10 | 2023-10-22T13:40:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y5V7zML7mwLTcXQZxc1M | Will Mercedes score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Mercedes scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints | 2023-08-24T09:45:37 | 2023-10-08T11:52:30 | 2023-10-08T11:52:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VJ9u9puKG8k3r0FlP2fT | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race | 2023-08-24T09:45:36 | 2023-10-08T11:53:40 | 2023-10-08T11:53:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8xzHJnCmUuQ8FSMPibDt | Will Lance Stroll finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 8, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:45:30 | 2023-10-08T12:16:07 | 2023-10-08T12:16:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0etgnYQEDnF69VAx6vgg | Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 8, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:45:25 | 2023-10-08T11:35:53 | 2023-10-08T11:35:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mzzjMS6jOwOADbvcQtT0 | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 8, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:45:24 | 2023-10-08T10:25:05 | 2023-10-08T10:25:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ja4PA52bxgjGCPeKcreG | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix? | The race will take place on October 8, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:45:22 | 2023-10-08T11:35:33 | 2023-10-08T11:35:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GEaeeaIHUbCGqK0IazbS | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix (Suzuka)? | The race will take place on September 24, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:43:21 | 2023-09-23T23:36:07 | 2023-09-23T23:36:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4ENJdJwp62IMrggUFoNN | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race. | 2023-08-24T09:40:50 | 2023-09-17T06:53:44 | 2023-09-17T06:53:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2GeCDoG080Ut14sD41rs | Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 17, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:40:41 | 2023-09-17T07:22:52 | 2023-09-17T07:22:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1zolRiSRt5VuiDugBcPD | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 17, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:40:41 | 2023-09-17T06:51:38 | 2023-09-17T06:51:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FN3gJPMAB2zC5rUyTjYu | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix? | The race will take place on September 17, 2023. | 2023-08-24T09:40:39 | 2023-09-17T06:54:01 | 2023-09-17T06:54:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NLe4WGHwQIejipBLuWAB | Will Vivek Ramaswamy's poll numbers be higher by at least 5% (e.g 10%->15%) a week after the 1st Republican debate? | As meaured by the average of polls reported by https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
(note I also created a market for a 1% increase but most traders thought it was an easy YES).
[link preview] | 2023-08-24T08:57:34 | 2023-09-02T18:10:11 | 2023-09-02T18:10:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iZHkBSEaScm85vGC8PUe | Will the US Open 2023 final be Djokovic vs Alcaraz? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-24T07:56:04 | 2023-09-08T19:46:09 | 2023-09-08T19:46:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qF962PxoVr8d16XO2aGU | Will the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate be civilized? | A GOP Presidential debate is being held on September 27, 2023. Debates in previous cycles have been labeled as uncivilized or unbecoming of America. For the resolution of this market, a review will be conducted on the morning of September 29 of all articles posted about the debate on September 28 on CNN.com, excluding ... | 2023-08-24T07:10:21 | 2023-09-28T20:59:00 | 2023-09-29T04:09:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IWvdmob795xJkrim06eE | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Philadelphia Eagles? | [image][markets] | 2023-08-24T06:55:11 | 2023-10-22T20:18:08 | 2023-10-22T20:18:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XAUYHpz3JJNpWrAaPrf3 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate? | A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will b... | 2023-08-24T04:35:09 | 2023-09-28T20:59:00 | 2023-09-29T05:08:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ehvX46crBhhytb46n7yw | Will we see a video of Prigozhin made by him to be posted in case of his death? | In 2023
Resolves N/A if he happens to remain alive.
| 2023-08-24T02:01:27 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:04:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3L7GDyP7kT6RktrEasZ4 | Will Logan Paul call off his engagement with his fiancé Nina Agdal by end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-23T23:23:04 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:27:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KSmqVkVW2xdVtyKJmm8B | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New York Giants? | [image][markets] | 2023-08-23T21:11:50 | 2023-10-08T14:54:13 | 2023-10-08T14:54:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3FMoF1wq9wgyYc2x1LUy | Will there be a repeat of the Wagner Group's rebellion in Russia by the end of 2023? | Resolves Yes if there is a second, coordinated attempt by Wagner forces to go to Moscow, similarly to what they did in June, by December 31, 2023.
Resolves No if not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion | 2023-08-23T21:11:47 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:07:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LrivqjHYJnzTeZuapiMp | Will Trump go on the Joe Rogan podcast before the 2024 Election | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-23T21:11:18 | 2024-10-25T19:15:27 | 2024-10-25T19:15:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CPm3EoDuwLVx1WAfw26z | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Buffalo Bills? (Oct 1) | [image][markets] | 2023-08-23T21:11:18 | 2023-10-01T14:23:11 | 2023-10-01T14:23:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RWzhMvTL6sMiL3OeOTP8 | Will Valve officially release counter-strike 2 before or on the 23rd of September 2023 | Valve said the game would be released in Summer 2023 which gives them until September 23rd at the latest. Will it happen? Or are they liars?
This will resolve when Valve releases CS2 or on end of day September 23rd, whichever comes first | 2023-08-23T19:21:50 | 2023-09-23T20:59:00 | 2023-09-24T05:42:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U7PzgA446Hku4nBvLOHk | Will Inter Miami win the U.S. Open Cup? | https://www.ussoccer.com/us-open-cup | 2023-08-23T19:21:46 | 2023-09-27T20:15:33 | 2023-09-27T20:15:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ge8h6bq0EGQY9glj3JNw | In hindsight, will skipping the GOP primary debates be generally considered a mistake for Donald Trump? | This market resolves after the results for Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024) are known.
If, after that, in my sole and personal judgment, it appears that the prevailing consensus is that it was a mistake for Donald Trump to not have appeared in even one of the primary debates, then this market resolves YES.
Otherwise it ... | 2023-08-23T18:45:06 | 2024-03-06T21:59:00 | 2024-03-06T22:41:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2ZVzfMeIRKqABRJ9oVNg | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New England Patriots? | [image][markets] | 2023-08-23T17:23:03 | 2023-09-17T20:23:50 | 2023-09-17T20:23:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fg25NOaqigED3xcKhrAI | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Los Angeles Chargers? | [image][markets] | 2023-08-23T17:21:38 | 2023-09-10T16:39:52 | 2023-09-10T16:40:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hTXcuDdklirWXRvnHTJk | Was Prigozhin’s death faked? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-23T17:02:19 | 2023-09-01T15:59:00 | 2023-09-02T01:53:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t9ANhdBiuGO8RKB3N2Am | Will any Democrat Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election? | The prevailing legal theory at the moment is that Trump is automatically disqualified by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This can apparently be unilaterally imposed by the Secretary of State in any individual state. This resolves YES if any DEMOCRAT Secretary of State makes a choice to enforce this constitutional prov... | 2023-08-23T15:31:12 | 2024-03-04T07:46:52 | 2024-03-04T07:46:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vQtL1a3rYbRYCLucKDZW | Will the Arizona Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election? | The prevailing legal theory at the moment is that Trump is automatically disqualified by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This can apparently be unilaterally imposed by the Secretary of State in any individual state. This resolves YES if the Arizona Secretary of State makes a choice to enforce this constitutional provi... | 2023-08-23T15:10:20 | 2024-03-04T07:45:55 | 2024-03-04T07:45:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1IWulo2mPP6jLO5Fs8LX | [50M subsidy ] Will the PMC Wagner stop existing before 2024? | Following the mutiny of June 2023, most of Wagner soldier were given a choice between signing up with the MoD or going into exil into Belarus. There are now rumors that Wagner fighter are being evacuated from Belarus following the death of its leader, Prigozhin.
This question will resolve YES if, at any point prior to... | 2023-08-23T13:48:59 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:17:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WtFfUD2ZDiRgGVs22GFr | Will the Price of Bitcoin be above 30.000,00$ before 1st Jan 2024? | I will resolve this according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
(Please note that if the price hits 30.000,00$ and goes back down it will be resolved as YES)
| 2023-08-23T13:05:56 | 2023-10-20T03:44:43 | 2023-10-20T03:44:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZyIZanrAXvUU7wiftYxE | Will there be a retaliatory action by Wagner against the Russian state before Oct 1st, 2023? | Wagner-linked Telegram channels warn of 'consequences' over the killing of Prigozhin, one says that the 'Kremlin will be taken'. [source]
Resolves as YES if, before Oct 1st, 2023, reputable sources confirm a direct and intentional act by Wagner-linked groups against any Russian state, otherwise resolves as NO.
The re... | 2023-08-23T11:58:00 | 2023-10-01T13:59:00 | 2023-10-03T06:09:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U3AilaeDanENg1cgcUhL | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be confirmed dead within 24 hours? | Reputable news sources are currently reporting that Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger in a plane that was involved in a fatal crash.
Will it be confirmed by 7:30 PM UK time on Thursday (the closing time of this market) that he is dead?
I will resolve this to YES if two of the following three news sources re... | 2023-08-23T11:30:06 | 2023-08-24T11:30:00 | 2023-08-24T12:03:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vTHqIi93KudLo7GilD3n | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be confirmed dead by the end of the week? | Edit 20:00 on Friday - the Guardian has published his obituary so now we're just waiting on one of the other two!
Reputable news sources are currently reporting that Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger in a plane that was involved in a fatal crash.
Will it be confirmed by 11:00 PM UK time on Sunday (the closi... | 2023-08-23T11:27:50 | 2023-08-27T07:53:10 | 2023-08-27T07:53:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8qMg8TTpjDO9CjAMSoPa | Will Putin imply he was directly responsible for the Prigozhin plane crash? | This refers to the plane that crashed today regardless of whether Prigozhin was actually on it or not.
If Putin or a spokesperson on his behalf takes credit or claims he was directly responsible this will resolve yes.
If he implies it was an eg. "unfortunate accident by the Russian military" then this will resolve N... | 2023-08-23T11:13:55 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-14T07:56:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oFEJ58NQMtT6Fgl64l5e | Will Alexei Navalny die in a plane crash? by 2030 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-23T11:05:34 | 2024-02-19T15:44:49 | 2024-02-19T15:44:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-afI0rt1VBI0lorrM630O | Will it be confirmed that Prigozhin was killed in the plane crash beyond a reasonable doubt? | I'm not yet sure how to confirm or deny that, but my feeling is when something like this happens in Russia, conspiracy should not be ruled out.
Market resolves as YES if there is still only speculation by sources that Prigozhin is alive or has been killed in any a way other than a plane crash by the end of 2023, other... | 2023-08-23T11:04:19 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-18T05:09:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wpJnhqfoWXOz3fp3NNMt | Conditional on Prigozhin plane crash being confirmed, will it be confirmed that it was caused by sabotage? by 2024 | (being shot down would also count)
"plane crash being confirmed" = Prigozhin was on board, the plane actually crashed, he died.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jskf/conditional-on-prigozhin-plane-cras) | 2023-08-23T10:40:07 | 2023-12-23T03:09:29 | 2023-12-28T09:15:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UoFOriQEYd3sv2lYALwT | Conditional on Prigozhin plane crash being confirmed, will it be confirmed that it was shot down? by 2024 | "plane crash being confirmed" = Prigozhin was on board, the plane actually crashed, he died.
See also
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jskf/conditional-on-prigozhin-plane-cras-92fdaeeeb5a1) | 2023-08-23T10:39:31 | 2023-12-28T09:19:18 | 2023-12-28T09:19:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-edlAUWpwulizkOCpmsvE | Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by October 1st? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-23T09:24:12 | 2023-09-30T16:59:00 | 2023-10-16T12:05:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y2hHqsvJkP5v18dhrmfs | Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by EOY? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-23T09:23:43 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-10T01:52:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sRpHtjIRigrIFXcZfk0Y | Will mugshots for all non-Trump defendants in the Georgia election case be available by September 1? | Edit for clarity: this is solely about the non-Trump defendants; whether a Trump mugshot is available or not is irrelevant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if official mugshots of all defendants other than ex-president Donald John Trump taken after July 31 are made widely available to the public by September 1, 2023... | 2023-08-23T07:37:07 | 2023-08-25T11:55:14 | 2023-08-25T11:55:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fy6byt24aTiIpi3kWHDz | Will Tesla officially reveal the Tesla "Model 2" in 2024? | The next generation of Tesla is supposed to be the most affordable to date, around 25.000$ and manufactured in Mexico.
Will it ba revealed in 2024? | 2023-08-23T04:34:09 | 2024-12-31T11:55:14 | 2024-12-31T11:55:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hhNRsMBzMIKpOxBnP8yg | Will Donald Trump ever tweet again? | If Donald Trump tweets (posts) on a platform currently known as X or Twitter, this market will resolve to "YES".
If Donald Trump passes away without tweeting again, this market will resolve to "NO"
---
The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified X/Twitter account with the handle @realD... | 2023-08-23T03:51:46 | 2023-10-05T21:46:22 | 2023-10-05T21:46:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LJ7tTXVQnNe6gKHo14n0 | 🏈 2023 NFL: Will Sam Howell be the starting QB for the Washington Commanders at the end of the season? | Resolves NO if Howell is benched and remains a backup at the end of the season. Resolves N/A if he is traded or is injured while a starter and finishes the season on IR. Season includes playoffs. | 2023-08-23T01:48:28 | 2024-01-07T14:04:05 | 2024-01-07T14:04:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4IpprTIJgA2mJo0Vn6F4 | Will Trump be arrested on Thursday (24/08/2023)? | This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of m... | 2023-08-22T21:22:42 | 2023-08-24T20:23:17 | 2023-08-24T20:23:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mOgPxn5dYQzZOxOMdIp7 | Will a federal judge rule Trump ineligible to serve as president by Election Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-22T20:06:32 | 2024-11-05T08:37:28 | 2024-11-05T08:37:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UouiPsk7O5rLBtK8bMay | Will Trump violate his bail agreement in Georgia by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-22T15:46:18 | 2023-12-31T20:20:02 | 2023-12-31T20:20:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wDWlvti7UBRsK6pfsQTy | Will The Economist dedicate a cover to Poland before 2024? | Sometimes they have one cover for Europe and another for rest of the world. Both counts.
This week cover is dedicated to Germany and their problems.
Resolves YES if clear connection to Poland can be made. It can be through a person or event related to Poland. It has to be Poland only not a group of countries.
Good... | 2023-08-22T14:08:43 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:20:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cJvjvqERWums3LLa6miU | Will Donald Trump weigh 280 pounds or more at his booking in Georgia on Thursday, Aug 24, 2023? | Oddsmakers are putting bets on how much Donald Trump will weigh at his booking in Georgia on Aug 24: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12422135/Donald-Trump-arraignment-betting-odds.html
Resolves to YES if at least two media sources (CNN, NY Times, etc.) report that he weighs 280 pounds or more.
Resolves to NO... | 2023-08-22T13:19:45 | 2023-08-25T20:59:00 | 2023-08-28T04:27:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Bpkil6BqWxaZ1TrXbaxa | Will the winner of the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary go on to secure the party’s nomination? (2024) | Inspired by a New York Times opinion article by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, which ends in a prediction:
[image]Resolves YES if the winner of the Republican NH primary becomes the Republican nominee for president, and NO if they do not.
Resolution date will be moved up as necessary once it becomes clear which... | 2023-08-22T13:07:41 | 2024-03-19T14:57:51 | 2024-03-19T14:57:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rGnvb1ZH8y7VYi8mdRXM | Will OpenAI release GPT-4 finetuning by Fall 2023? | Resolves YES if GPT-4 is publicly available to be finetuned by 2023-12-21 19:19:00 PST. NO otherwise.
with fine-tuning for GPT-4 coming this fall
Context(tweet embed):
[tweet] | 2023-08-22T12:12:34 | 2023-12-21T19:19:00 | 2023-12-22T03:17:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fufBXX5MD0qnCqh1YArJ | Will Nvidia drop by 10% or more on Aug 24, 2023? | Nvidia releases its earnings report on Wednesday, Aug 23.
This will resolve to YES if it drops by 10% or more on Aug 24 (measured from Aug 23 close to Aug 24 close).
It will resolve to NO otherwise. | 2023-08-22T09:25:32 | 2023-08-25T20:59:00 | 2023-08-26T19:47:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sfvtmqxMs3LQC4eD49zc | Will Inter Miami beat Cincinnati? ⚽ U.S. Open Cup | https://www.ussoccer.com/us-open-cup | 2023-08-22T07:46:33 | 2023-08-23T19:19:28 | 2023-08-23T19:19:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HQJjaFo2pk13HW2jSytj | Will Rick Scott be re-elected to the Senate in Florida? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-22T07:29:22 | 2024-11-05T20:04:33 | 2024-11-05T20:04:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-G72zF9cjXZIaSqlQfXSU | Will GitHub have any incident on August 23rd 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-23 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be ... | 2023-08-22T05:16:44 | 2023-08-23T10:42:48 | 2023-08-23T10:42:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nYa9TQRYmQbCuwJd3dcC | Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy? | Donald Trump has spent over $40m to defend himself against criminal and civil litigation in 2023.
This market resolves to YES if, before January 20, 2025 at 11:59:59am EST, Trump declares any form of bankruptcy in a personal capacity. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | 2023-08-22T04:16:09 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-02-07T08:44:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kfXRUzZmCFpWrpDV2CrZ | Will X/Twitter implement an identity verification feature by the end of 2024? | YES = X/Twitter rolls out a user identity verification feature that enables users to display their verified human status on their profiles by market close.
To qualify, the feature must:
be available to a significant portion of the users - e.g. for all users from a particular country.
verify using Government issued i... | 2023-08-22T00:58:33 | 2023-10-03T21:24:53 | 2023-10-03T21:24:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FVMp4mBoavqq3WtuD9bs | Will any country's current Head of State or Government die in the next month? | Presidents, Prime Ministers, etc.
Must be the country's leader (either head of state or head of government is fine, even if ceremonial) as of this question's creation date on Aug 21 2023 or become such (and die) by question close. Doesn't need to die "in office".
Members of a council that is itself the Head count, bu... | 2023-08-21T22:56:07 | 2023-09-20T23:59:00 | 2023-09-21T00:24:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yJn0hwXj2CDuKacDNpTw | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 23 than it closed on August 22? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---... | 2023-08-21T21:16:15 | 2023-08-23T11:00:00 | 2023-08-23T14:32:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UtZWpkpoxmAiV69zAUmD | Will Apple announce an iPhone “Ultra” in September 2023? | I will close this at the end of Apple's September iPhone event which is on 2023-09-12 at 10 AM PT. Resolves YES if any newly announced iPhone model has the word "ultra" in the name. | 2023-08-21T21:05:03 | 2023-09-12T11:22:49 | 2023-09-12T11:22:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XpFKdzNONr28VCjEC1EX | Will Kamala Harris be the Vice President of the United States of America at 11:59PM ET on January 20th 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-21T20:14:41 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:37:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aPkTrZc1rXHHDW98i7XW | Will there be a ≥7-magnitude earthquake in Mexico during September 2023? | Will use Sismológico Nacional data as confirmation.
Previously:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Puebla_earthquake
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Chiapas_earthquake
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Mexico_City_earthquake | 2023-08-21T19:19:59 | 2023-09-30T23:47:16 | 2023-09-30T23:47:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DKMfymQvvfFcLzg12Wgu | Will David Solomon still be the CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-21T17:19:23 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:56:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TKKokSl5maUD4mgYNWDR | Will Trump's bail be revoked in 2023? | Resolves YES if any judge revokes Trump's bail in 2023, otherwise NO.
Modifying the conditions of bail without revoking bail will not be sufficient for YES resolution.
An example of this happening was with SBF: https://www.npr.org/2023/08/11/1191362886/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-sbf-crypto-fraud
The definition of "revoki... | 2023-08-21T16:08:43 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:03:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
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