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mani-ptFDUSXkPXNmft3gyUA6
|
Will Donald Trump win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
|
A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Trump must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all he did was meet expectations and even if he didn't attend.
If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on September 28, 2023, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A.
NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate and, if such a market had existed, that market would have resolved to YES.
RELATED MARKETS:
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-nikki-haley-win-the-september
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-chris-christie-win-the-septemb
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-win-the-september-2
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-ron-desantis-win-the-september
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-septem
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-tim-scott-win-the-september-27
Exactly zero or one of the seven "Will X win the September 27 debate" questions will resolve to YES.
PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE:
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-or-his-ideas
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-attacked-th
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-rap-during-the-c1add16f63fa
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-speak-the-most-duri
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic
RESOLUTION: Two articles mentioned "winners" on CNN.com on September 28, and the winners were Haley and Trump.
However, the resolution criteria state that the most prominent article will be used for resolution. The following headline appeared on CNN's homepage for several hours on the morning of September 28. Trump's reference to being a "winner" was therefore more prominent than Haley's, and this is the only market out of all the linked markets related to this debate to resolve to YES.
[image]
|
2023-08-25T06:11:53
|
2023-09-28T20:59:00
|
2023-09-29T05:55:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hDPN780rgfhnMPLqaMD1
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy become the #2 polling candidate anytime before the second GOP debate?
|
This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in National Polls" chart section titled "Average as of Yesterday".
As of August 24, 2023, Vivek Ramaswamy currently polls at 10.3%. That puts him in third place behind Ron Desantis (14.8%) and Donald Trump (51.6%).
At any point before the next GOP debate begins on September 27, will he move into the #2 spot? It will resolve immediately upon me seeing the site and confirming that he moved into the #2 spot. If the debate date changes, I will modify the close date.
This may also resolve to "yes" if he ties for the #2 spot.
|
2023-08-25T05:58:09
|
2023-09-27T18:00:00
|
2023-09-27T18:01:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Ev8L7bCzsTDEJtC8Bfm
|
Will Donald Tusk become Polish Prime Minister by 31 March 2024?
|
Idea is whether the opposition can form a government that is led by Tusk after the upcoming 15 Oct general elections in Poland. There is a time buffer in case that government formation drags out into 2024.
|
2023-08-25T05:05:49
|
2023-12-12T12:56:14
|
2023-12-12T12:56:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6LzyyDtI7hgb2ALilJLb
|
Will KSI beat Tommy Fury on October 14th?
|
Resolves as N/A if it's a draw
|
2023-08-25T05:05:17
|
2023-10-14T16:16:16
|
2023-10-14T16:16:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PCHsFsOiiK4ekwH0Fr21
|
Will Nikki Haley win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
|
A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if Nikki Haley wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Haley must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as she is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all she did was meet expectations and even if she didn't attend.
If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on September 28, 2023, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A.
NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate and, if such a market had existed, that market would have resolved to YES.
RELATED MARKETS:
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-chris-christie-win-the-septemb
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-ron-desantis-win-the-september
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-win-the-september-2
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-septem
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-donald-trump-win-the-september
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-tim-scott-win-the-september-27
Exactly zero or one of the seven "Will X win the September 27 debate" questions will resolve to YES.
PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE:
@/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic-7ec3a1e264c4
@/SteveSokolowski/will-the-first-question-during-the
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-or-his-ideas
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-attacked-th
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-rap-during-the-c1add16f63fa
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-speak-the-most-duri
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic
RESOLUTION: The only two candidates referred to as "winners" in any CNN article were Haley and Trump.
However, the CNN homepage, for several hours on the morning of September 28, stated that Trump was the winner in the headline:
[image]The resolution criteria states that only zero or one of the seven markets can resolve to YES, and also that the most prominent article would be used for resolution. The headline stating that Trump won is clearly more prominent than the mentions that Haley won in a different article, so this market resolves to NO.
|
2023-08-25T04:40:40
|
2023-09-28T20:59:00
|
2023-09-29T05:40:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-js7YoP8Gko0h1EKEJVKK
|
Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves yes if Wagner group still maintains some form of operations in the Middle East/Africa/Russia/Eastern Europe etc. resolves no if Wagner group dissolves/is incorporated by the Russian millitary.
|
2023-08-25T03:15:43
|
2023-12-31T11:08:47
|
2023-12-31T11:08:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9PvdCvtEaBddbRDoCEI5
|
Will Donald Trump’s favorability on 538 be above 40% before Sep 5th?
|
Sep 5th being enough time for polling after the mugshot release to take place.
Resolves YES if Trump's favorability gets above 40% at any point before Sep 5. It is currently 39.7%, so this question is basically "will it go up".
Otherwise, resolves NO.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
[link preview]
|
2023-08-25T00:02:21
|
2023-09-05T08:07:16
|
2023-09-05T08:07:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-udqMIv7BG6uyAeFwLaDZ
|
Will Trump tweet a funny banger in his inimitable style again?
|
Subjective
I am not a fan but he did know how to write a funny tweet
If he does it again with new content through 2023 this is a yes
|
2023-08-24T22:58:00
|
2024-01-01T23:59:00
|
2024-01-02T00:30:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a1dxc9TTHXEbg7FABI2S
|
Will Trump hold a Twitter space in 2023?
|
Resolves as YES if a Twitter Space, hosted by @realDonaldTrump, occurs at any time in 2023; otherwise resolves as NO.
|
2023-08-24T20:53:54
|
2024-01-01T13:59:00
|
2024-01-04T20:44:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NfFnvEtT91Ko2eAjOqpq
|
Will Trump tweet again before Sept 1st, 2023?
|
Resolves as YES if a verifiable tweet, from @realDonaldTrump, is posted from the time of the creation of the market and before Sept 1st, 2023; otherwise resolves as NO.
|
2023-08-24T20:46:04
|
2023-09-01T05:21:21
|
2023-09-01T05:21:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ezeFXJkZBSQGcVSgYB2H
|
Will BRICS announce Indonesia is joining as a member before 2026?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-24T20:44:29
|
2025-01-13T18:50:15
|
2025-01-13T18:50:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q9UVLZLvz3xx5PnjDSEH
|
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 25 than it closed on August 24?
|
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $26,163.40
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:
1st place - Ṁ3,000
2nd place - Ṁ2,000
3rd place - Ṁ1,000
4th place = Ṁ500
5th place - Ṁ250
@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-24T19:58:26
|
2023-08-25T16:00:00
|
2023-08-25T17:21:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YWAj6Kp3lvQ6ovJ9IbDC
|
Will Trump tweet again through September 1
|
Midnight pst
Tweet, reply, quote tweet all count
|
2023-08-24T19:33:51
|
2023-09-02T08:41:29
|
2023-09-02T08:41:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0mAB1JiDr9or2PAfGmnp
|
Will Trump smile in his Mugshot?
|
Easy one to resolve here, resolves in 24hrs N/A if no Mugshot by Aug 26
[image]
|
2023-08-24T16:21:11
|
2023-08-25T03:58:56
|
2023-08-25T03:58:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Yx94wnkLXwLjE1BvoHMC
|
Has a Chinese submarine crashed in the Strait of Taiwan?
|
Xi skipped an important speech this week at the BRIC summit and there are lots of rumors this could be why. Some say the entire Chinese crew was killed. Resolves YES if confirmed true by the end of the year.
|
2023-08-24T16:17:13
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:19:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oKdjBUdmRnmgUmoMJjuo
|
Will the Trump Mugshot become a God-Level meme?
|
God-Level Meme: A meme that achieves unparalleled recognition and influence within a specified timeframe, characterized by the following criteria:
Popularity: Shared, liked, or commented on by a significant number of users across various social media platforms, reaching a predetermined threshold (e.g., a million shares within a week).
Cultural Impact: Recognized and referenced across various media, including news outlets, TV shows, or public figures, signifying a broader societal acknowledgment.
Creativity and Originality: Exhibits a unique blend of humor, insight, or commentary that distinguishes it from other memes, becoming a benchmark for subsequent creations.
Endurance: Continues to be relevant and actively shared beyond an initial surge, indicating a lasting appeal.
In the context of the prediction market "Will the Trump Mugshot become a God-Level meme?" a win condition could be met if the meme in question satisfies the above criteria after 1 month of the mugshots creation or dissemination.
[image]
|
2023-08-24T16:15:09
|
2023-09-25T15:59:00
|
2023-10-01T07:56:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gy9aSVyuqyMc2UAllvB8
|
Will Counter Strike 2 be available to the public by October 1st, 2023?
|
If Counter Strike 2 is available for everyone to download before or on October 1st, 2023 this market resolves to YES.
If the game is not available by October first, this market resolves to NO.
|
2023-08-24T16:02:56
|
2023-09-27T15:14:45
|
2023-09-27T15:14:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d6YsiecZtRC54WV0g78m
|
Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers speak at an international conference through 2024
|
Any of the 7 people listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99
The conference must be attended by at least 100 researchers
It must happen before EOY 2024
They must speak about LK-99
|
2023-08-24T15:19:08
|
2024-03-04T15:42:57
|
2024-03-04T15:42:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DLBDST02XrJ2ssSmBy5L
|
Will destiny reach 702k subscribers in August?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
@/CourierSix/will-destiny-reach-750k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-f62d9ac83d07@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-706k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-703k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-702k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-701k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-700k-subscribers-0afb295d856d
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-696k-subscribers
@/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-46a74402b6a9
|
2023-08-24T13:53:11
|
2023-09-01T00:00:00
|
2023-09-01T00:31:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CYAajmUqte2oufmUBBdO
|
Will GitHub have any incident on August 25th 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-08-25 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
|
2023-08-24T12:21:35
|
2023-08-25T17:00:00
|
2023-08-25T23:44:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ENr9QqOAAmULxOiaFzDc
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Driver Championship at the Japanese Grand Prix (Suzuka)?
|
Resolves YES if he is not the champion before the weekend but scores enough points (or other drivers fail to score) where it becomes impossible for anyone else to catch him.
|
2023-08-24T09:53:01
|
2023-09-17T11:19:15
|
2023-09-17T11:19:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w1BxPBhdsAxXYBC28eXL
|
Will McLaren score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if McLaren scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints
|
2023-08-24T09:51:23
|
2023-10-29T16:59:34
|
2023-10-29T16:59:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wnAXBzDvvD7QQt3Zopws
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race
|
2023-08-24T09:51:21
|
2023-10-29T14:05:32
|
2023-10-29T14:05:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bqSmW62b8zwRDA4JWo4w
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:51:19
|
2023-10-29T15:31:06
|
2023-10-29T15:31:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6662dnD5r2j3RoJFxRhm
|
Will Lando Norris finish in the top 6 places at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
Driver must be classified in one of the first six positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:51:15
|
2023-10-29T15:42:50
|
2023-10-29T15:42:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VKyq3l6cabuTV6Ug7BuA
|
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:51:13
|
2023-10-29T16:44:02
|
2023-10-29T16:44:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tsWtVgJCLpg7Ngb7oM9i
|
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:51:12
|
2023-10-29T14:04:50
|
2023-10-29T14:04:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sTGblBU0kLUgRVgbCbSw
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 29, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:51:11
|
2023-10-29T15:43:46
|
2023-10-29T15:43:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TqvOoOlINEe7yKdg9E36
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix?
|
The race will take place on October 29, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:51:09
|
2023-10-29T15:43:13
|
2023-10-29T15:43:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aADZipwHR3aW93GBXfZ9
|
Will Alex Albon finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)?
|
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:49:39
|
2023-10-22T13:56:37
|
2023-10-22T13:56:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uOfKXFIO8kCFSXkgo3L3
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)?
|
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:49:37
|
2023-10-25T21:22:38
|
2023-10-25T21:22:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JfPIvMt9blh1bRQj2gPL
|
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:49:29
|
2023-10-22T13:43:06
|
2023-10-22T13:43:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7APpRJHNSvSXEr8xcH4M
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 22, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:49:28
|
2023-10-22T13:43:52
|
2023-10-22T13:43:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u5oJ5ylTJkwD2KKbEbWu
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix (COTA, Austin)?
|
The race will take place on October 22, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:49:25
|
2023-10-22T13:40:10
|
2023-10-22T13:40:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y5V7zML7mwLTcXQZxc1M
|
Will Mercedes score more points than Ferrari at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Mercedes scores more points than Ferrari over the entire weekend, including sprints
|
2023-08-24T09:45:37
|
2023-10-08T11:52:30
|
2023-10-08T11:52:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VJ9u9puKG8k3r0FlP2fT
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race
|
2023-08-24T09:45:36
|
2023-10-08T11:53:40
|
2023-10-08T11:53:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8xzHJnCmUuQ8FSMPibDt
|
Will Lance Stroll finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix?
|
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on October 8, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:45:30
|
2023-10-08T12:16:07
|
2023-10-08T12:16:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0etgnYQEDnF69VAx6vgg
|
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 8, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:45:25
|
2023-10-08T11:35:53
|
2023-10-08T11:35:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mzzjMS6jOwOADbvcQtT0
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on October 8, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:45:24
|
2023-10-08T10:25:05
|
2023-10-08T10:25:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ja4PA52bxgjGCPeKcreG
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix?
|
The race will take place on October 8, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:45:22
|
2023-10-08T11:35:33
|
2023-10-08T11:35:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GEaeeaIHUbCGqK0IazbS
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix (Suzuka)?
|
The race will take place on September 24, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:43:21
|
2023-09-23T23:36:07
|
2023-09-23T23:36:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4ENJdJwp62IMrggUFoNN
|
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race.
|
2023-08-24T09:40:50
|
2023-09-17T06:53:44
|
2023-09-17T06:53:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2GeCDoG080Ut14sD41rs
|
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 17, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:40:41
|
2023-09-17T07:22:52
|
2023-09-17T07:22:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1zolRiSRt5VuiDugBcPD
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 17, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:40:41
|
2023-09-17T06:51:38
|
2023-09-17T06:51:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FN3gJPMAB2zC5rUyTjYu
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix?
|
The race will take place on September 17, 2023.
|
2023-08-24T09:40:39
|
2023-09-17T06:54:01
|
2023-09-17T06:54:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NLe4WGHwQIejipBLuWAB
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy's poll numbers be higher by at least 5% (e.g 10%->15%) a week after the 1st Republican debate?
|
As meaured by the average of polls reported by https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
(note I also created a market for a 1% increase but most traders thought it was an easy YES).
[link preview]
|
2023-08-24T08:57:34
|
2023-09-02T18:10:11
|
2023-09-02T18:10:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iZHkBSEaScm85vGC8PUe
|
Will the US Open 2023 final be Djokovic vs Alcaraz?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-24T07:56:04
|
2023-09-08T19:46:09
|
2023-09-08T19:46:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qF962PxoVr8d16XO2aGU
|
Will the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate be civilized?
|
A GOP Presidential debate is being held on September 27, 2023. Debates in previous cycles have been labeled as uncivilized or unbecoming of America. For the resolution of this market, a review will be conducted on the morning of September 29 of all articles posted about the debate on September 28 on CNN.com, excluding "Live Updates during the debate" feeds.
This market resolves to NO if there are more articles that criticize multiple candidates, moderators, audience members, the debate hall, or others involved with producing the debate for uncivil behavior than there are articles praising these people for managing a substantive debate that helped audience members decide who to vote for.
Otherwise, if praise is the majority opinion, if there is equal weight on both sides, or if the debate is so conventional that nobody comments at all about its civility, this market resolves to YES.
The spirit of the question is targeted at the civility of the debate itself. Therefore, excessive personal attacks by a single candidate, which cause controversy over that candidate's actions and which don't degrade the conversation in general, are insufficient to label the debate in its entirety as "uncivilized."
The market resolves to N/A if the debate is cancelled, postponed until after September 30 at 11:59:59pm EDT, or if CNN doesn't publish a single article about the topic on September 28.
See also: https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-august-23-2023-republican
RESOLUTION: During the August 23, 2023 debate, CNN did not post any mentioning the tone of the debate.
During this debate, the most prominent article that CNN posted stated that Donald Trump won because the other candidates were involved in so many attacks and crosstalk that it belittled them. Multiple other commentators also criticized the candidates for lacking respect for the moderators. Sexual comments by two candidates were also highly criticized.
This time, there were no articles praising anyone for a substantive debate, but there were multiple opinion pieces mentioning the rowdy tone, so the correct resolution is NO.
|
2023-08-24T07:10:21
|
2023-09-28T20:59:00
|
2023-09-29T04:09:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IWvdmob795xJkrim06eE
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Philadelphia Eagles?
|
[image][markets]
|
2023-08-24T06:55:11
|
2023-10-22T20:18:08
|
2023-10-22T20:18:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XAUYHpz3JJNpWrAaPrf3
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
|
A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Ramaswamy must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all he did was meet expectations and even if he didn't attend.
If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on September 28, 2023, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A.
NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate and, if such a market had existed, that market would have resolved to YES.
ALTERNATE FORM OF THIS QUESTION:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SteveSokolowski/will-ai-believe-that-vivek-ramaswam)RELATED MARKETS:
@/SteveSokolowski/will-nikki-haley-win-the-september
@/SteveSokolowski/will-chris-christie-win-the-septemb
@/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-win-the-september-2
@/SteveSokolowski/will-ron-desantis-win-the-september
@/SteveSokolowski/will-donald-trump-win-the-september
@/SteveSokolowski/will-tim-scott-win-the-september-27
Exactly zero or one of the seven "Will X win the September 27 debate" questions will resolve to YES.
PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE:
@/SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-or-his-ideas
@/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-rap-during-the-c1add16f63fa
@/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-attacked-th@/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic-7ec3a1e264c4
@/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-speak-the-most-duri
@/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic
@/SteveSokolowski/will-the-first-question-during-the
RESOLUTION: CNN's headline on the morning of September 28, 2023 stated that Trump won the debate. There were also no opinion commentators who stated that Ramaswamy won; some criticized him for talking over the other candidates. This market, therefore, resolves to NO.
See https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fme8lLVt6re.png?alt=media&token=e7305c62-d4eb-4e1c-838d-045017dd13a6.
|
2023-08-24T04:35:09
|
2023-09-28T20:59:00
|
2023-09-29T05:08:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ehvX46crBhhytb46n7yw
|
Will we see a video of Prigozhin made by him to be posted in case of his death?
|
In 2023
Resolves N/A if he happens to remain alive.
|
2023-08-24T02:01:27
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:04:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3L7GDyP7kT6RktrEasZ4
|
Will Logan Paul call off his engagement with his fiancé Nina Agdal by end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-23T23:23:04
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:27:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KSmqVkVW2xdVtyKJmm8B
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New York Giants?
|
[image][markets]
|
2023-08-23T21:11:50
|
2023-10-08T14:54:13
|
2023-10-08T14:54:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3FMoF1wq9wgyYc2x1LUy
|
Will there be a repeat of the Wagner Group's rebellion in Russia by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves Yes if there is a second, coordinated attempt by Wagner forces to go to Moscow, similarly to what they did in June, by December 31, 2023.
Resolves No if not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion
|
2023-08-23T21:11:47
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:07:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LrivqjHYJnzTeZuapiMp
|
Will Trump go on the Joe Rogan podcast before the 2024 Election
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-23T21:11:18
|
2024-10-25T19:15:27
|
2024-10-25T19:15:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CPm3EoDuwLVx1WAfw26z
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Buffalo Bills? (Oct 1)
|
[image][markets]
|
2023-08-23T21:11:18
|
2023-10-01T14:23:11
|
2023-10-01T14:23:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RWzhMvTL6sMiL3OeOTP8
|
Will Valve officially release counter-strike 2 before or on the 23rd of September 2023
|
Valve said the game would be released in Summer 2023 which gives them until September 23rd at the latest. Will it happen? Or are they liars?
This will resolve when Valve releases CS2 or on end of day September 23rd, whichever comes first
|
2023-08-23T19:21:50
|
2023-09-23T20:59:00
|
2023-09-24T05:42:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U7PzgA446Hku4nBvLOHk
|
Will Inter Miami win the U.S. Open Cup?
|
https://www.ussoccer.com/us-open-cup
|
2023-08-23T19:21:46
|
2023-09-27T20:15:33
|
2023-09-27T20:15:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ge8h6bq0EGQY9glj3JNw
|
In hindsight, will skipping the GOP primary debates be generally considered a mistake for Donald Trump?
|
This market resolves after the results for Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024) are known.
If, after that, in my sole and personal judgment, it appears that the prevailing consensus is that it was a mistake for Donald Trump to not have appeared in even one of the primary debates, then this market resolves YES.
Otherwise it resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether he appears to be winning the primary as of Super Tuesday (If he is losing, then I predict that will make more people saying it was a mistake not to debate. If he is winning but it's closer than expected that might also count as evidence, but to be clear this resolves entirely on what the general consensus in American politics seems to be RE: his decision to skip at least one of the debates, regardless of whether he's doing well or not).
|
2023-08-23T18:45:06
|
2024-03-06T21:59:00
|
2024-03-06T22:41:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ZVzfMeIRKqABRJ9oVNg
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New England Patriots?
|
[image][markets]
|
2023-08-23T17:23:03
|
2023-09-17T20:23:50
|
2023-09-17T20:23:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fg25NOaqigED3xcKhrAI
|
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Los Angeles Chargers?
|
[image][markets]
|
2023-08-23T17:21:38
|
2023-09-10T16:39:52
|
2023-09-10T16:40:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hTXcuDdklirWXRvnHTJk
|
Was Prigozhin’s death faked?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-23T17:02:19
|
2023-09-01T15:59:00
|
2023-09-02T01:53:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t9ANhdBiuGO8RKB3N2Am
|
Will any Democrat Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election?
|
The prevailing legal theory at the moment is that Trump is automatically disqualified by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This can apparently be unilaterally imposed by the Secretary of State in any individual state. This resolves YES if any DEMOCRAT Secretary of State makes a choice to enforce this constitutional provision, regardless of the outcome of subsequent legal challenges.
[image]
|
2023-08-23T15:31:12
|
2024-03-04T07:46:52
|
2024-03-04T07:46:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vQtL1a3rYbRYCLucKDZW
|
Will the Arizona Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election?
|
The prevailing legal theory at the moment is that Trump is automatically disqualified by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This can apparently be unilaterally imposed by the Secretary of State in any individual state. This resolves YES if the Arizona Secretary of State makes a choice to enforce this constitutional provision, regardless of the outcome of subsequent legal challenges.
|
2023-08-23T15:10:20
|
2024-03-04T07:45:55
|
2024-03-04T07:45:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1IWulo2mPP6jLO5Fs8LX
|
[50M subsidy ] Will the PMC Wagner stop existing before 2024?
|
Following the mutiny of June 2023, most of Wagner soldier were given a choice between signing up with the MoD or going into exil into Belarus. There are now rumors that Wagner fighter are being evacuated from Belarus following the death of its leader, Prigozhin.
This question will resolve YES if, at any point prior to 2024, Wagner cease to exist or to be officially an independent PMC. (So it becoming a regular army unit would resolve as YES). It resolves as NO otherwise.
I won't be betting on the market to remain as objective as possible.
|
2023-08-23T13:48:59
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:17:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WtFfUD2ZDiRgGVs22GFr
|
Will the Price of Bitcoin be above 30.000,00$ before 1st Jan 2024?
|
I will resolve this according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
(Please note that if the price hits 30.000,00$ and goes back down it will be resolved as YES)
|
2023-08-23T13:05:56
|
2023-10-20T03:44:43
|
2023-10-20T03:44:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZyIZanrAXvUU7wiftYxE
|
Will there be a retaliatory action by Wagner against the Russian state before Oct 1st, 2023?
|
Wagner-linked Telegram channels warn of 'consequences' over the killing of Prigozhin, one says that the 'Kremlin will be taken'. [source]
Resolves as YES if, before Oct 1st, 2023, reputable sources confirm a direct and intentional act by Wagner-linked groups against any Russian state, otherwise resolves as NO.
The retaliatory action must be significant, characterized as a tangible event aiming at causing notable impact or disruption to the Russian state. This includes actions like large-scale cyberattacks, infrastructure assaults, or targeted assassinations widely reported by major news outlets. Mere inflammatory statements on platforms like Telegram are not sufficient. The retaliation should potentially have clear real-world consequences.
|
2023-08-23T11:58:00
|
2023-10-01T13:59:00
|
2023-10-03T06:09:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U3AilaeDanENg1cgcUhL
|
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be confirmed dead within 24 hours?
|
Reputable news sources are currently reporting that Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger in a plane that was involved in a fatal crash.
Will it be confirmed by 7:30 PM UK time on Thursday (the closing time of this market) that he is dead?
I will resolve this to YES if two of the following three news sources report that he is dead without caveating it as "reported to be dead", "believed to be dead", "almost certainly dead" or anything like that:
BBC
Guardian
Reuters
There is also a market on whether this will happen by the end of the week:
@/SimonGrayson/will-yevgeny-prigozhin-be-confirmed
Edit - just to add that I will not be trading in this market. I think the resolution is pretty clear and objective (it's based on whether the three news sources I've named are stating that he is dead without qualification) but I want to make sure that no one thinks I have an incentive to bend the definition in any way!
|
2023-08-23T11:30:06
|
2023-08-24T11:30:00
|
2023-08-24T12:03:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vTHqIi93KudLo7GilD3n
|
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be confirmed dead by the end of the week?
|
Edit 20:00 on Friday - the Guardian has published his obituary so now we're just waiting on one of the other two!
Reputable news sources are currently reporting that Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger in a plane that was involved in a fatal crash.
Will it be confirmed by 11:00 PM UK time on Sunday (the closing date of this market) that he is dead?
I will resolve this to YES if two of the following three news sources report that he is dead without caveating it as "reported to be dead", "believed to be dead", "almost certainly dead" or anything like that:
BBC
Guardian
Reuters
There is also a market on whether the news will be confirmed by these sources by Thursday evening:
@/SimonGrayson/will-yevgeny-prigozhin-be-confirmed-05816a6540d4
Edit - just to add that I will not be trading in this market myself. I think the resolution is pretty clear and objective (it's based on whether the three news sources I've named are stating that he is dead without qualification) but I want to make sure that no one thinks I have an incentive to bend the definition in any way!
|
2023-08-23T11:27:50
|
2023-08-27T07:53:10
|
2023-08-27T07:53:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8qMg8TTpjDO9CjAMSoPa
|
Will Putin imply he was directly responsible for the Prigozhin plane crash?
|
This refers to the plane that crashed today regardless of whether Prigozhin was actually on it or not.
If Putin or a spokesperson on his behalf takes credit or claims he was directly responsible this will resolve yes.
If he implies it was an eg. "unfortunate accident by the Russian military" then this will resolve NO.
If he doesn't make any statement that fulfils either resolution criteria by close date (end of 2023) then this will resolve NO.
In a case where he ambiguously implies he was responsible, but leaves it somewhat open-ended, I will close the market and conduct a poll in our discord that our Trustworthyish users can vote on to determine the resolution. I may re-open the market to trading if they think the statement wasn't strong enough to resolve one way or the other.
|
2023-08-23T11:13:55
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-14T07:56:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oFEJ58NQMtT6Fgl64l5e
|
Will Alexei Navalny die in a plane crash? by 2030
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-23T11:05:34
|
2024-02-19T15:44:49
|
2024-02-19T15:44:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-afI0rt1VBI0lorrM630O
|
Will it be confirmed that Prigozhin was killed in the plane crash beyond a reasonable doubt?
|
I'm not yet sure how to confirm or deny that, but my feeling is when something like this happens in Russia, conspiracy should not be ruled out.
Market resolves as YES if there is still only speculation by sources that Prigozhin is alive or has been killed in any a way other than a plane crash by the end of 2023, otherwise NO. If it becomes clear that that market was resolved incorrectly as YES after the end of 2023, it should be re-resolved.
Market close date will not be changed. If at the end of 2023 any of the reputable news sources will be openly disputing Prigozhin's death (or the cause of his death), this market will resolve YES. You may try to convince me that I shouldn't consider the source, for example if you will be able to undermine its credibility. If the market will be resolved NO and after some time Prigoshin is known to have lived before the end of 2023, this question should be re-resolved as NO.
I define reputable news source as any national media of the EU or EEA member state with an addition of the UK to include BBC.
Just to clarify: the question is, of course, about the leader of the Wagner Group, not some other person with the same name.
|
2023-08-23T11:04:19
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-18T05:09:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wpJnhqfoWXOz3fp3NNMt
|
Conditional on Prigozhin plane crash being confirmed, will it be confirmed that it was caused by sabotage? by 2024
|
(being shot down would also count)
"plane crash being confirmed" = Prigozhin was on board, the plane actually crashed, he died.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jskf/conditional-on-prigozhin-plane-cras)
|
2023-08-23T10:40:07
|
2023-12-23T03:09:29
|
2023-12-28T09:15:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UoFOriQEYd3sv2lYALwT
|
Conditional on Prigozhin plane crash being confirmed, will it be confirmed that it was shot down? by 2024
|
"plane crash being confirmed" = Prigozhin was on board, the plane actually crashed, he died.
See also
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jskf/conditional-on-prigozhin-plane-cras-92fdaeeeb5a1)
|
2023-08-23T10:39:31
|
2023-12-28T09:19:18
|
2023-12-28T09:19:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-edlAUWpwulizkOCpmsvE
|
Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by October 1st?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-23T09:24:12
|
2023-09-30T16:59:00
|
2023-10-16T12:05:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y2hHqsvJkP5v18dhrmfs
|
Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by EOY?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-23T09:23:43
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-10T01:52:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sRpHtjIRigrIFXcZfk0Y
|
Will mugshots for all non-Trump defendants in the Georgia election case be available by September 1?
|
Edit for clarity: this is solely about the non-Trump defendants; whether a Trump mugshot is available or not is irrelevant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if official mugshots of all defendants other than ex-president Donald John Trump taken after July 31 are made widely available to the public by September 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of all defendants other than Donald Trump becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether they are released officially, leaked, etc.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government.
See also:
@/jack/will-a-trump-mugshot-be-available-b
@/EvanDaniel/will-a-giuliani-mugshot-be-availabl
The resolution criteria for this question is intended to be analogous to those two.
|
2023-08-23T07:37:07
|
2023-08-25T11:55:14
|
2023-08-25T11:55:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fy6byt24aTiIpi3kWHDz
|
Will Tesla officially reveal the Tesla "Model 2" in 2024?
|
The next generation of Tesla is supposed to be the most affordable to date, around 25.000$ and manufactured in Mexico.
Will it ba revealed in 2024?
|
2023-08-23T04:34:09
|
2024-12-31T11:55:14
|
2024-12-31T11:55:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hhNRsMBzMIKpOxBnP8yg
|
Will Donald Trump ever tweet again?
|
If Donald Trump tweets (posts) on a platform currently known as X or Twitter, this market will resolve to "YES".
If Donald Trump passes away without tweeting again, this market will resolve to "NO"
---
The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified X/Twitter account with the handle @realDonaldTrump
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any type of public activity from this profile counts for this market, replies, Twitter Spaces, Stories, or any other quasi-posts included.
---
Another market: What will be the first word of his tweet?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/if-donald-trump-ever-tweets-again-w)
|
2023-08-23T03:51:46
|
2023-10-05T21:46:22
|
2023-10-05T21:46:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LJ7tTXVQnNe6gKHo14n0
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will Sam Howell be the starting QB for the Washington Commanders at the end of the season?
|
Resolves NO if Howell is benched and remains a backup at the end of the season. Resolves N/A if he is traded or is injured while a starter and finishes the season on IR. Season includes playoffs.
|
2023-08-23T01:48:28
|
2024-01-07T14:04:05
|
2024-01-07T14:04:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4IpprTIJgA2mJo0Vn6F4
|
Will Trump be arrested on Thursday (24/08/2023)?
|
This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]
|
2023-08-22T21:22:42
|
2023-08-24T20:23:17
|
2023-08-24T20:23:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mOgPxn5dYQzZOxOMdIp7
|
Will a federal judge rule Trump ineligible to serve as president by Election Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-22T20:06:32
|
2024-11-05T08:37:28
|
2024-11-05T08:37:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UouiPsk7O5rLBtK8bMay
|
Will Trump violate his bail agreement in Georgia by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-22T15:46:18
|
2023-12-31T20:20:02
|
2023-12-31T20:20:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wDWlvti7UBRsK6pfsQTy
|
Will The Economist dedicate a cover to Poland before 2024?
|
Sometimes they have one cover for Europe and another for rest of the world. Both counts.
This week cover is dedicated to Germany and their problems.
Resolves YES if clear connection to Poland can be made. It can be through a person or event related to Poland. It has to be Poland only not a group of countries.
Good reason for that to happen are elections happening in October.
|
2023-08-22T14:08:43
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:20:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cJvjvqERWums3LLa6miU
|
Will Donald Trump weigh 280 pounds or more at his booking in Georgia on Thursday, Aug 24, 2023?
|
Oddsmakers are putting bets on how much Donald Trump will weigh at his booking in Georgia on Aug 24: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12422135/Donald-Trump-arraignment-betting-odds.html
Resolves to YES if at least two media sources (CNN, NY Times, etc.) report that he weighs 280 pounds or more.
Resolves to NO if the booking does not take place on Thursday, Aug 24; he is not weighed; he is weighed but does not weigh more than 280 lbs.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-22T13:19:45
|
2023-08-25T20:59:00
|
2023-08-28T04:27:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bpkil6BqWxaZ1TrXbaxa
|
Will the winner of the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary go on to secure the party’s nomination? (2024)
|
Inspired by a New York Times opinion article by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, which ends in a prediction:
[image]Resolves YES if the winner of the Republican NH primary becomes the Republican nominee for president, and NO if they do not.
Resolution date will be moved up as necessary once it becomes clear which primaries will deliver the required number of delegates to secure the nomination. Also resolves early if the winner of the NH primary drops out of the race.
Resolution will wait for the convention only if a contested convention seems likely.
I will not trade in this market.
|
2023-08-22T13:07:41
|
2024-03-19T14:57:51
|
2024-03-19T14:57:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rGnvb1ZH8y7VYi8mdRXM
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-4 finetuning by Fall 2023?
|
Resolves YES if GPT-4 is publicly available to be finetuned by 2023-12-21 19:19:00 PST. NO otherwise.
with fine-tuning for GPT-4 coming this fall
Context(tweet embed):
[tweet]
|
2023-08-22T12:12:34
|
2023-12-21T19:19:00
|
2023-12-22T03:17:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fufBXX5MD0qnCqh1YArJ
|
Will Nvidia drop by 10% or more on Aug 24, 2023?
|
Nvidia releases its earnings report on Wednesday, Aug 23.
This will resolve to YES if it drops by 10% or more on Aug 24 (measured from Aug 23 close to Aug 24 close).
It will resolve to NO otherwise.
|
2023-08-22T09:25:32
|
2023-08-25T20:59:00
|
2023-08-26T19:47:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sfvtmqxMs3LQC4eD49zc
|
Will Inter Miami beat Cincinnati? ⚽ U.S. Open Cup
|
https://www.ussoccer.com/us-open-cup
|
2023-08-22T07:46:33
|
2023-08-23T19:19:28
|
2023-08-23T19:19:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HQJjaFo2pk13HW2jSytj
|
Will Rick Scott be re-elected to the Senate in Florida?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-22T07:29:22
|
2024-11-05T20:04:33
|
2024-11-05T20:04:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G72zF9cjXZIaSqlQfXSU
|
Will GitHub have any incident on August 23rd 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-23 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
|
2023-08-22T05:16:44
|
2023-08-23T10:42:48
|
2023-08-23T10:42:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nYa9TQRYmQbCuwJd3dcC
|
Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy?
|
Donald Trump has spent over $40m to defend himself against criminal and civil litigation in 2023.
This market resolves to YES if, before January 20, 2025 at 11:59:59am EST, Trump declares any form of bankruptcy in a personal capacity. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
|
2023-08-22T04:16:09
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-02-07T08:44:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kfXRUzZmCFpWrpDV2CrZ
|
Will X/Twitter implement an identity verification feature by the end of 2024?
|
YES = X/Twitter rolls out a user identity verification feature that enables users to display their verified human status on their profiles by market close.
To qualify, the feature must:
be available to a significant portion of the users - e.g. for all users from a particular country.
verify using Government issued id or a proxy that requires Government issued id to create (e.g. a bank account)
include some front-end element in the username/profile page that allows the verified user to show whether they are a verified human.
The feature may or may not be a paid feature and/or part of a premium subscription.
|
2023-08-22T00:58:33
|
2023-10-03T21:24:53
|
2023-10-03T21:24:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FVMp4mBoavqq3WtuD9bs
|
Will any country's current Head of State or Government die in the next month?
|
Presidents, Prime Ministers, etc.
Must be the country's leader (either head of state or head of government is fine, even if ceremonial) as of this question's creation date on Aug 21 2023 or become such (and die) by question close. Doesn't need to die "in office".
Members of a council that is itself the Head count, but "deputies" "vices" and "assistants" where there is a higher seat do not.
|
2023-08-21T22:56:07
|
2023-09-20T23:59:00
|
2023-09-21T00:24:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yJn0hwXj2CDuKacDNpTw
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 23 than it closed on August 22?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
|
2023-08-21T21:16:15
|
2023-08-23T11:00:00
|
2023-08-23T14:32:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UtZWpkpoxmAiV69zAUmD
|
Will Apple announce an iPhone “Ultra” in September 2023?
|
I will close this at the end of Apple's September iPhone event which is on 2023-09-12 at 10 AM PT. Resolves YES if any newly announced iPhone model has the word "ultra" in the name.
|
2023-08-21T21:05:03
|
2023-09-12T11:22:49
|
2023-09-12T11:22:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XpFKdzNONr28VCjEC1EX
|
Will Kamala Harris be the Vice President of the United States of America at 11:59PM ET on January 20th 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-21T20:14:41
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:37:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aPkTrZc1rXHHDW98i7XW
|
Will there be a ≥7-magnitude earthquake in Mexico during September 2023?
|
Will use Sismológico Nacional data as confirmation.
Previously:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Puebla_earthquake
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Chiapas_earthquake
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Mexico_City_earthquake
|
2023-08-21T19:19:59
|
2023-09-30T23:47:16
|
2023-09-30T23:47:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DKMfymQvvfFcLzg12Wgu
|
Will David Solomon still be the CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-21T17:19:23
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T21:56:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TKKokSl5maUD4mgYNWDR
|
Will Trump's bail be revoked in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if any judge revokes Trump's bail in 2023, otherwise NO.
Modifying the conditions of bail without revoking bail will not be sufficient for YES resolution.
An example of this happening was with SBF: https://www.npr.org/2023/08/11/1191362886/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-sbf-crypto-fraud
The definition of "revoking bail" here is the legal definition in the relevant jurisdication. If that is unclear, then a consensus of reliable media reporting may be used.
|
2023-08-21T16:08:43
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:03:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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