id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-Bl2mapCiWkJCPClAmKkj | Will X/Twitter implement an identity verification feature by the end of 2023? | YES = X/Twitter rolls out a user identity verification feature that enables users to display their verified human status on their profiles by market close.
To qualify, the feature must:
be available to a significant portion of the users - e.g. for all users from a particular country.
verify using Government issued i... | 2023-08-21T15:48:35 | 2023-10-03T21:24:02 | 2023-10-03T21:24:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-INdVRRdp08Nh8oaZNJlS | Will AI wipe out humanity before Daylight savings time begins in 2024? | If humanity is still around on March 10, 2024, then this market resolves to NO and we can move our clocks forward one hour. Otherwise resolves to YES . | 2023-08-21T15:21:03 | 2024-03-09T00:00:00 | 2024-03-10T04:23:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-51rwMOY8DTIekqhXHdNQ | Will the the spot price of an ounce of gold hit $2000 ON December 31st 2023? | Hitting $2000 by the end of the year will mean: the spot of gold will have a value of $2000 or higher at any point during said day (31st December 2023 EST time)
30th November 2023: The title was fixed to better characterize the goal of this market and better fit its description. | 2023-08-21T14:21:48 | 2023-12-30T19:59:00 | 2023-12-30T21:39:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0ftiwAFH0ZfXeBtYqdOm | Will Trump participate in the second Republican Primary debate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-21T13:46:18 | 2023-09-26T20:59:00 | 2023-09-27T20:10:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ByKLfPcB7Ijl1t5tyHOB | Will there be another >$100M crypto hack by 1. November? | Hack value determined at time of hack,
Value is amount of funds lost, not what the hacker gained.
Any chain. Should be featured on rekt.news. | 2023-08-21T13:40:22 | 2023-10-06T14:08:08 | 2023-10-06T14:08:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-09mt2wIpgAEEbrbrHrW0 | Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open Men Singles 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-21T13:25:23 | 2023-09-10T17:32:40 | 2023-09-10T17:32:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3M9PDUnJ788NzM8tJ5sP | Will Tesla release FSD Beta v12 before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-21T13:22:06 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:15:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hrJwawQp5oDN1KKCMyCz | Will AI be able to generate anime from manga by end of 2024? | The anime should be at least 20 minutes long.
Sound and video should be both made by AI.
The only non-AI generated inputs should be the manga images and transcripts of its text. (The input during training can be anything)
If there is editing made by humans, such as removing some parts of the video, or changing order... | 2023-08-21T13:04:15 | 2024-12-31T12:59:00 | 2024-12-31T23:52:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eyRr7DdlUzse1al8NGHv | Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024? | Commercial airplanes nearly crashed 46 times in June 2023, according to NY Times reporting on FAA safety documents.
FAA hosts a public database of such incidents. Wikipedia lists fatal commercial aircraft accidents in the US.
an "airliner crash"
excludes non-commercial aviation, e.g. military, private jets, charter ... | 2023-08-21T12:33:02 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:04:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s1JRJ97HcKaxK2XwspMV | Will Praggnanandhaa beat Magnus carlsen and win the finals of the The Chess World Cup 2023 | If he wins the tournament this resolves YES, otherwise NO | 2023-08-21T10:30:44 | 2023-08-24T04:40:00 | 2023-08-24T04:40:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0B5Rr3y6nblOg3nx2KWs | Will a COVID-19 variant cause intermittent mask mandates in the United States by March 2024? | This resolves YES upon reputable news reports of Covid-19 prevention mask mandates in more than one US municipality. "Mask mandates" may be issued for schools, businesses, churches, or for government buildings across an administrative region (county, municipality, or school district), provided the administrative region... | 2023-08-21T09:34:20 | 2024-03-01T15:59:00 | 2024-03-01T21:27:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sxHYM6GJcIIfGMUINFdR | Will a hurricane hit the State of Florida any time during the month of September 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-21T08:47:16 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T08:01:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2UQHXhGJQ9eK347HVLKm | Will USA win the 2024 Olympic women's soccer gold medal? | Paris 2024 Summer Olympics | 2023-08-21T08:25:45 | 2024-08-11T05:18:15 | 2024-08-11T05:18:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aHzCvOKJJ1GPvwI15Npt | Will Brazil win the 2024 Olympic men's soccer gold medal? | Paris 2024 Summer Olympics | 2023-08-21T08:24:28 | 2024-02-12T10:16:41 | 2024-02-12T10:16:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RndRXtELvFL2yRiDhAk4 | Will Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin live to see January 1st 2026? | Resolves YES if he's alive on January 1st 2026.
Resolves NO if he dies before the date. | 2023-08-21T08:16:34 | 2023-08-23T13:37:47 | 2023-08-23T13:37:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iytjGOYlHrIxTxXH7o9f | Will Inter Miami make the 2024 MLS playoffs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-21T08:08:40 | 2024-08-26T05:24:00 | 2024-08-26T05:24:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fkpERW5HXcGB4yUPPJXx | There will be a newly created market about fusion w/ more than 3k bettors in it by June 1 2024 | Midnight PST
gap between its creation and its reaching 3k bettors should be <=30 days
Measuring bettors by whatever this value is in the UI:
[image] | 2023-08-21T07:43:10 | 2024-06-02T12:05:14 | 2024-06-02T12:05:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0yPmnSTrUptnTKKKwd0Z | Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $480 per share on August 25, 2023? | Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $480 USD on the closing price of 25 of August, 2023. Any moves above $480 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ | 2023-08-21T07:27:38 | 2023-08-25T13:27:11 | 2023-08-25T13:27:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C63S3CtTqYzkN68R4X8w | Will the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate be civilized? | A GOP Presidential debate is being held on August 23, 2023. Debates in previous cycles have been labeled as uncivilized or unbecoming of America. For the resolution of this market, a review will be conducted on the morning of August 25 of all articles posted about the debate on August 24, 2023 on CNN.com, excluding "... | 2023-08-21T05:14:05 | 2023-08-24T21:00:00 | 2023-08-25T04:09:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EXlABd0SMixAKgVYJxZX | Will GitHub be down on August 22nd 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-22 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be ... | 2023-08-21T02:09:16 | 2023-08-22T09:41:08 | 2023-08-22T09:41:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BMFIacEMdBvhJz0bhmcM | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Dutch Grand Prix? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Dutch_Grand_Prix | 2023-08-20T23:19:10 | 2023-08-27T08:30:19 | 2023-08-27T08:30:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P4tWhbCTKzf1dMG3hV38 | Will Hasan react to Destiny's Jubilee episode on stream? | Will HasanAbi (notorious Jubilee reactooor) react to the Jubilee episode featuring Destiny or will that episode be mysteriously skipped? | 2023-08-20T21:22:58 | 2023-09-04T18:34:59 | 2023-09-04T18:34:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S6kQ3eIFiTRDv9v5fPNZ | Will BlackRock’s BTC Spot ETF be approved before the next Bitcoin halving? | Resovles YES if the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot ETF before Bitcoin undergoes it's next halving.
The halving is currently estimated to occur late April 2024. | 2023-08-20T20:21:28 | 2024-01-10T16:16:16 | 2024-01-10T16:16:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-seYwag7C0hiCJ5grPzmj | Will there be a riot in America in the next month? | resolves yes if there is a riot that needs to be shuttdown by police involving 500+ people in America by Sept 20. Otherwise, resolves no. | 2023-08-20T20:09:32 | 2023-09-19T22:59:00 | 2023-09-22T12:37:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x80fNXpzXabEzVvz3Yoz | Will AI wipe out humanity before Valentines Day 2024? | If humanity is still around on February 14, 2024, then this market resolves to NO and we can celebrate our continued survival on Valentines Day. Otherwise resolves to YES . | 2023-08-20T19:13:01 | 2024-02-13T08:59:00 | 2024-02-13T09:08:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Jtqt4GMOhi5MCVRySsg | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate? | A GOP Presidential debate will be held on August 23, 2023.
This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be ... | 2023-08-20T16:38:51 | 2023-08-24T21:00:00 | 2023-08-25T04:15:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i4yirjdbpgAO3bGlImvH | Will the Jubilee episode with destiny release before October? | Recently the people from the Jubilee youtube channel recorded an episode with destiny. Will that episode be released before this market closes? | 2023-08-20T12:08:08 | 2023-09-03T11:10:30 | 2023-09-03T11:10:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XfVJgpavflzAEH3zWoqa | Will Fernando Alonso win his 33rd race this year? | Fernando Alonso has won 32 F1 races in his entire career, the last one in 2013. From 2014 onwards, Alonso has won eight podiums, six of which have been this year, which is why his fans believe this could be the year he wins his 33rd race. There are 10 races left of the 24 races to be held this year.
[image] | 2023-08-20T11:42:12 | 2023-11-26T14:59:00 | 2023-11-27T09:40:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k96xMflVILRxV9DLEo4D | Will Trump participate in any presidential debate before the 2024 election? | This questions shall resolve YES if Donald Trump participates in a debate, either in the primary or general election before the 2024 presidential election is held. Otherwise it shall resolve NO, or upon confirmation that no further debates will be held if Trump has not already participated in one. | 2023-08-20T11:13:52 | 2024-06-27T18:27:28 | 2024-06-27T18:27:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-B6aTvW3pXIrtzthi3TM5 | Will the Price of Bitcoin hit 35.000,00$ before 1st Jan 2024? | I will resolve this according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
(PLEASE note that if the price hits 35.000,00$ and goes back down it will be resolved as YES) | 2023-08-20T10:28:17 | 2023-10-24T02:49:05 | 2023-10-24T02:49:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jt3Xrq7lD9ofn6mpVvdC | Will GitHub be down on August 21th 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-21 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be ... | 2023-08-20T00:37:25 | 2023-08-21T11:57:39 | 2023-08-21T11:57:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NWr8GNi0xy67Svetr6H9 | Will the Writers Guild of America strike resolve before the end of 2023? | The WGA has been on strike since May 2nd 2023. One of the main focus points in the labor dispute is the residuals from streaming media; the WGA claims that AMPTP's share of such residuals has cut much of the writers' average incomes compared to a decade ago. Writers also wanted artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT,... | 2023-08-20T00:24:54 | 2023-10-05T07:25:37 | 2023-10-05T07:25:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xp3rrvDdsxKcrKRUX1fU | Will Hunter Biden get anyone pregnant while the First Son? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-19T14:26:53 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:08:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TZuGDdnt9ZlvSG0kPbnT | Will Elon Musk force every user of X to follow him by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-19T13:22:38 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:50:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V0jxBeJBPYgR0JnF03P9 | Will Nvidia's share price break $555 in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-19T10:24:04 | 2023-12-29T22:59:00 | 2023-12-30T08:04:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zDapeehaEENaY5dPBr0a | Will destiny reach 701k subscribers in August? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
@/CourierSix/will-destiny-reach-750k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-f62d9ac83d07@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-706k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-703k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-702k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-desti... | 2023-08-19T10:10:16 | 2023-09-01T00:00:00 | 2023-09-01T00:31:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uxxV1tTnXfljP80kpjxD | Will Jimmy Carter live until the end of this year? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-19T06:23:16 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:13:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1pokW5hP2xHJUK32ht1x | Will Biden have to step down from his current (or any future) Presidential role due to health reasons? | This includes his current Presidential term and any future one he may win.
Resolves YES if he has serious health concerns and needs to step down permanently from being President. This also includes death (which is a pretty serious health concern), otherwise resolves NO. Also resolves NO if he does not win a second ter... | 2023-08-19T05:01:00 | 2025-01-20T11:50:39 | 2025-01-20T11:50:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cWENiyg2GVjcnnv1ywWy | Will Tesla deliver its first Cybertruck in Q3/23? | Related Question: https://manifold.markets/Yves/will-tesla-produce-more-than-1500-c?r=WXZlcw | 2023-08-19T01:30:38 | 2023-10-01T14:59:00 | 2023-10-02T09:56:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7KrGIcC9yl9LaL4OGMzs | Will Logan Paul call off his wedding | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-18T20:18:13 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-11T09:56:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-civOuYA1yUSMoK6wukPx | Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of 2023? | Will Putin die/get killed before the end of December 31, 2023, Moscow time? | 2023-08-18T18:51:21 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:15:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9KQtfvPMhtKTtflQn2is | Will Trump be held in custody pending trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-18T17:12:51 | 2025-02-28T21:59:00 | 2025-03-02T05:20:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K6PrrubTU1E88pqxaG5b | Will Democrats win the "blue wall" in the 2024 Senate election? | Resolves YES if Democrats win every Senate election in the states shown in blue here:
[image](from the Wikipedia article)
Bernie Sanders and Angus King count as Democrats for this market, so the only states that are really in question are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Inspired by this video:
(https://www.... | 2023-08-18T16:34:08 | 2024-11-07T13:15:19 | 2024-11-07T13:15:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hYre9oDaimPxu6Zq4IB7 | Will you be able to block people on X/Twitter at EOY 2023? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1692558414105186796
Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if and only if at EOY 2023, there will be a feature on X/Twitter for account A to prevent a specific other account B from seeing A's public tweets.
Some examples: If "blocking" still exists for DMs but DMs only, this will resolv... | 2023-08-18T15:39:38 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T15:42:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OLyu4GfHFvJmtWsEDRnM | Will the Chinese real estate giant, Country Garden, default on its bond payments by the end of Sep 2023? | Resolves YES if multiple mainstream news orgs confirm that Country Garden has defaulted on its bond payments.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/16/how-bad-could-chinas-property-crisis-get
[link preview] | 2023-08-18T15:39:31 | 2023-10-01T03:34:10 | 2023-10-01T03:34:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RmKFa1U8Gsq74uD9VPea | Will a publicly listed pharma company reach $1T in market cap before 2025? | Market resolves to YES if a publicly listed pharma company reaches $1T before 1st Jan 2025.
This is essentially a bet on the success of the new obesity drugs. Though who knows, maybe some entirely different innovation will be what finally pushes a company past the line. Best bets currently would be Eli Lilly & Novo N... | 2023-08-18T13:04:38 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2024-12-31T11:44:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eHPfIsrbdlMWX60AQI2t | Will $TSLA close above $200 this week? | Will resolve as YES if the stock price of Tesla, Inc. is greater than $200.00 at the close of this week, Friday August 25th. Will resolve as no otherwise. | 2023-08-18T13:02:43 | 2023-08-25T14:59:00 | 2023-08-25T21:34:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9pSjBFEgPJ9iT86ViYgG | Will Djokovic win ATP Cincinnati, USA Men Singles 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-18T12:45:26 | 2023-08-20T20:21:16 | 2023-08-20T20:21:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i43PDpsz9bDFsKanKXqD | Will Twitter(X) remove the ability to block other users before September 19th? | Block in the sense that it currently means, the ability to totally remove their access to your account.
Basically will Musk do the thing he says he will
If there are regional differences then it will resolve to what is true in the US
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1692558414105186796?s=20 | 2023-08-18T12:29:24 | 2023-09-18T08:59:00 | 2023-09-19T02:59:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7lhPVfo0zrTigAU8nio7 | Will KSI beat Tommy Fury | If it's a draw it'll be N/A. | 2023-08-18T11:56:15 | 2023-10-14T23:59:00 | 2023-10-15T00:41:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DwjKVNsIpK5igl3fmivY | Will Russia destroy energy OR heating system for any Major Ukrainian city in Winter 2023/2024 by rockets and drones? | Current capacity, after 1 year of war, is reduced from 50 gigawatt to 15 gigawatt.
In a next Winter season of energy war, will Ukraine permanently lose centralized energy supply to inhanbitants?
Criteria:
Any major city (Lvov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, Kharkov) will lose majority of central heating before 1st of... | 2023-08-18T11:19:09 | 2024-04-17T23:41:18 | 2024-04-17T23:41:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0j5k2F84ojMjrNm5RyAJ | Will you still be able to block people on X at the end of August 2023 | [image]RESOLUTION CLARIFICATIONS:
Blocking = Blocker and Blocked are no longer able to interact w each other's tweet (view, like, repost) or message eachother
Blocking transitions to a X Premium/Blue/wtv they're calling the paid subscription only feature: YES feature will still exist albeit underneath a paywall
Bl... | 2023-08-18T10:05:49 | 2023-09-01T20:59:00 | 2023-09-02T10:39:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wul72CRyvNsqpIpJHSdz | Will United Auto Workers (UAW) strike this Summer? | Will United Auto Workers (UAW) go on strike at any point during Summer 2023 (Wed, Jun 21, 2023 - Sat, Sep 23, 2023)? | 2023-08-18T09:55:52 | 2023-09-15T06:38:08 | 2023-09-15T06:38:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pqaz4HZOc8MghN9HvEEV | Will Instacart IPO in September 2023? | Resolves YES if Instacart goes public in September, otherwise NO. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.
Announcing that they will go public doesn't count, they need to actually go public.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/at-long-last-instacart-is-reportedly-eyeing-ipo-in-september-2244b2f
[link p... | 2023-08-18T08:34:23 | 2023-09-19T10:25:30 | 2023-09-19T10:25:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LusG9Nk5r4iTrqZgIXEK | Will any of Trump’s Georgia co-defendants plead guilty by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-18T08:00:21 | 2023-09-29T14:05:30 | 2023-09-29T14:05:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KjTRFvCsRNydoMpeLOME | Will the government of the Central African Republic be overthrown before the end of 2024? | Including coup d'etat and rebel seizure of capital. | 2023-08-18T05:15:30 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T02:35:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q5UARewc9SbIHXklWpDM | Will Tesla produce more than 1500 Cybertrucks in 2023? | Related Question: https://manifold.markets/Yves/will-tesla-deliver-its-first-cybert?r=WXZlcw | 2023-08-18T05:09:08 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-26T00:17:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qnpn9GHKM4yyaJyfzESy | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Resolves positively if Von der Leyen is nominated by the European Council and elected by the European Parliament, for a second five-year term after the 2024 European elections. | 2023-08-18T02:00:21 | 2024-07-18T08:00:20 | 2024-07-18T08:00:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dQ6f0Ymgq6KG7oTvyuif | Will a Red Bull driver win the 2024 F1 World Championship? | In 2023 Red Bull Is definitely winning, but what about 2024? | 2023-08-18T01:45:18 | 2024-12-08T14:59:00 | 2024-12-08T22:47:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-20Oa5xTIqy8FLavhOo46 | Will 85% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 18th October? | On 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.
The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% and 80% to ... | 2023-08-18T00:56:13 | 2023-10-18T14:00:00 | 2023-10-18T14:21:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IJpnVpLQwz9hhfDbgIlR | Donald Trump to die before 2025: Y/N? | As simple as that: if Donald Trump will die before 01/01/2025 resolves YES
Donald Trump lives on: resolves NO
| 2023-08-17T23:55:36 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-20T08:03:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3J9HY8aL3JuglO0xVLOn | Will there be news about police raids targeting black markets for unaligned AIs before 2025? | > ## context
The concept of black markets for unaligned AIs has been mentioned by Bojan Tunguz. As these markets could potentially become targets for law enforcement agencies, there may be police raids to combat these illegal activities in the future.
> ## resolution criteria
The prediction will be considered resolv... | 2023-08-17T20:34:38 | 2024-12-31T19:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:55:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Trc1bmfbtj4dJEf6XD8R | Will any of Donald Trump's criminal trials end in a mistrial or hung jury before the end of 2024? | Some ways this could happen:
[image]Resolves YES after official announcement or reliable media reports of a criminal trial of Donald Trump ending in a Mistrial before market close. Resolves N/A if there are no criminal trials of Donald Trump before market close. Resolves NO otherwise.
| 2023-08-17T20:13:37 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T04:00:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ttMMCVoyEPkcVDVgCTF3 | Will Sam Altman have a significant PR blunder before the beginning of 2024? | This will resolve as YES iff a single instance of Sam's actions result in negative media attention from multiple large news organisations across the political isle before the 1st of January 2024, and NO otherwise | 2023-08-17T18:12:28 | 2023-12-31T02:59:00 | 2024-01-04T22:08:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HoSdnzJ0vafHpngICtPp | Will the UFC announce a fight for Connor McGregor before the end of 2023? | To clarify, this question will resolve as YES if an official announcement for a McGregor fight is made before the end of 2023, regardless of when the fight is | 2023-08-17T17:23:12 | 2023-12-31T02:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:24:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ktPlmB4l9R444YEcJTfx | Will there be WAN show Aug 25th including both Luke and Linus? | Will resolve yes if a Linus Tech Tips WAN show is presented on Aug 25 including both Luke and Linus as the main hosts.
If broadcast exclusive to one streaming platform (e.g. only Twitch, Youtube, or FloatPlane) this will still resolve Yes.
Edited to resolve by midnight PDT, location of LTT business: Surrey, British... | 2023-08-17T16:40:20 | 2023-08-26T00:00:00 | 2023-08-26T07:50:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KZ3dXJFPSlni8XEBYPKm | Will the price of Bitcoin drop below $25,000 at any point between the time of posting this question and September 1st? | Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below $25,000 at any moment from the creation of this market to Sept 1st, 2023 (Created Aug 18th); otherwise, resolves NO. The prices are referenced from Google Finance, which sources its cryptocurrency data from Morningstar. | 2023-08-17T15:59:42 | 2023-09-01T13:59:00 | 2023-09-01T14:17:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VAWjOEBFGAHtPMkjc0GY | Will Trump be indicted in Nevada by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-17T15:31:46 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:50:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AXdiGoQlSHAH9vzCVAN1 | Will an LLM co/author a NYT Bestseller in the next year? | Appearing in the credits or acknowledgements (e.g. "written with loving support from my dear wife, GPT-4") is sufficient. | 2023-08-17T15:15:42 | 2024-08-17T23:59:00 | 2024-08-19T11:39:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SDQNBIGYIcS2OYZ7cIts | Will software company Notion be acquired in 2024? | Will resolve 'yes' if an announcement of intent to aquire Notion is made, and is confirmed by Notion, within the year of 2024. | 2023-08-17T12:56:31 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T08:44:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XPSx8N4YYkKNy2fmYpNf | Will software company Notion be acquired in 2023? | Will resolve 'yes' if an announcement of intent to aquire Notion is made, and is confirmed by Notion, before the end of 2023. | 2023-08-17T12:55:11 | 2023-12-31T10:49:20 | 2023-12-31T10:49:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bM5Mmljg9U4bIUMqc4ZE | Will Hurricane Hilary make landfall as either a tropical or subtropical storm in California? | Hurricane Hilary is currently projected to impact California. Will it make landfall on the coast?
A tropical storm making landfall in California is exceptionally rare. The only recorded instance of this was in Long Beach, 1939.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm
The only known hurricane to ... | 2023-08-17T08:04:22 | 2023-08-21T23:59:00 | 2024-02-13T18:29:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RVPxQH9muFKalV3yIcBg | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 18th August than it closed on 17th August? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 18th August than it did on Thursday 17th August?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are some monthly markets for the month of August:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6b2ebca28f2e
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-en... | 2023-08-17T07:33:26 | 2023-08-18T08:30:00 | 2023-08-18T09:06:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MrKOuBb0mXgaO9j9vGw0 | Will Apple acquire a major film studio by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-17T06:36:52 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:30:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZkDrTyzqP0XIKQYXBDoQ | Will Apple embed an LLM in any of their products by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-17T06:31:50 | 2023-12-31T20:29:55 | 2023-12-31T20:29:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C8UcsDTHZGb1K7YMPN8o | Will Haaland be top scorer in Premier League AND Champions League this season (2023/24)? | Most goals scored according to BBC website for each competition. | 2023-08-17T04:18:01 | 2024-04-20T05:53:07 | 2024-04-20T05:53:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YhEpiBckSaxn4SB74NcL | Will the New York Times sue OpenAI for copyright infringement in 2023? | https://text.npr.org/1194202562 | 2023-08-17T02:56:06 | 2023-12-27T09:21:01 | 2023-12-27T09:21:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DD0Lk2ktHUqfrXCXDphX | Will Henry Kissinger be alive by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-17T02:36:19 | 2023-11-30T19:25:52 | 2023-11-30T19:25:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Nj0hJQySeQh4UiOWVR2X | Will Joe Biden trip up or fall over again before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-17T02:27:22 | 2023-10-16T20:29:13 | 2023-10-16T20:29:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RCYU0A3rzXehiJjqNYUk | Will Stripe go public by the end of 2024? | Market resolves to YES if Stripe Inc. (stripe.com) is listed on a stock exchange by 31st Dec 2024. | 2023-08-17T01:52:09 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2024-12-31T11:43:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bBHmqfl37LXRQbCacZwX | Will AI come to Google Home devices before 2025? | Resolves YES if, before close date, Google issues an update to the existing fleet of Google Home devices which allows it to respond to queries in a freeform ChatGPT / Bard style.
Must be in place on at least some of the devices listed here - https://support.google.com/googlenest/answer/7029281?hl=en-GB as of date ques... | 2023-08-17T00:07:00 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T23:04:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GPIAYuXdzWvp0anDgdXa | Will Donald Trump participate in a Republican Primary Debate in 2023? | Will Donald Trump appear on a debate stage for an RNC-sanctioned republican primary debate prior to January 1st 2024? | 2023-08-16T20:10:50 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:34:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yZUqNY6bTJ0REwy5KuRE | Will Tom Scott be a full-season Jet Lag guest before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-16T19:53:43 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-01T13:20:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vrAr3QvQ8SbmOyPxMFJG | Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 30? | Resolves YES if an official mugshot of ex-president Donald John Trump taken after July 31 is made widely available to the public by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, resolves NO.
This market resolves YES if an official mugshot of Donald Trump becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of... | 2023-08-16T12:45:44 | 2023-08-24T19:05:57 | 2023-08-24T19:05:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4UXgO6FrIMxnjHnmnDkf | Will Both underdogs win the last Women's World Cup Games? | Sweden - Australia (FAV: Australia)
Spain - England (FAV: Spain)
So if Sweden and England win their Games (INK OVERTIME AND PANALTY SHOOUT OUT) The market resolves Yes | 2023-08-16T12:23:57 | 2023-08-20T05:09:30 | 2023-08-20T05:09:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ObD7BzIGlZ8GhHdc1eCv | Will Trump be arraigned in Georgia in August | Resolves YES if former president of the United States Donald J. Trump is arraigned in the state of Georgia in August 2023 (ET). Otherwise NO.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-georgia-election-investigation-grand-jury-willis-d39562cedfc60d64948708de1b011ed3
Trump and 18 allies charged in Georgia election meddling as ... | 2023-08-16T11:42:06 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-09-01T05:25:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iHHKr0SZiw64WbsqnHRM | If the US Women were considered a country, will they be in the Top 3 for the gold medal count at the 2024 Olympics? | So, I've had this picture on my phone for a while:
[image]This was really funny to me to present the data like this. Hilarious even.
Also, there appears to be a history of US Women dominating in Gold Medal counts at the Olympics. During the 2020 Olympics US Women had 23 Golds, which put them behind only China (38) an... | 2023-08-16T09:53:20 | 2024-08-11T10:00:45 | 2024-08-11T10:00:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pPnpOllptMskXCop84QY | Will Chris Christie get second place in the 2024 GOP presidential primary in New Hampshire? | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/08/15/chris-christie-polls-new-hampshire-desantis/70594698007/
[link preview] | 2023-08-16T08:21:20 | 2024-01-12T09:24:20 | 2024-01-12T09:24:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h64SXrrK2GDrCO8ANRG3 | Will Tesla legally deploy Level 4 autonomy somewhere in the world by the end of 2024? | Cars with level 4 autonomy do not require human interaction in most circumstances. However, a human still has the option to manually override.
In regular public roads. | 2023-08-16T07:50:27 | 2024-12-31T11:57:15 | 2024-12-31T11:57:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3TzpwhM0XP4SoqZUkilo | Will Sweden defeat Australia in the Women’s World Cup Third Place match? | Resolves YES if Sweden wins and no if Australia wins. A draw is not possible.
Close time is set for after the match but may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market. | 2023-08-16T05:01:27 | 2023-08-19T03:02:59 | 2023-08-19T03:02:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zNW9Svm3qd1Gt4cy9cOa | Will Spain defeat England in the Women’s World Cup Finals?? | Resolves YES if Spain wins and NO if England wins. A draw is not possible.
Close time set for after the game but may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market. | 2023-08-16T04:59:20 | 2023-08-20T05:03:38 | 2023-08-20T05:03:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cvWhVtA1MJsowVrO3suG | Will @realDonaldTrump tweet (or X) in 2025? | Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval. Using X to tweet also counts. | 2023-08-16T01:55:45 | 2025-01-06T10:58:25 | 2025-01-06T10:58:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LUNu71va2rJ1b6s7pIIn | Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 20th September be below 7%? | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday 20th September.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March... | 2023-08-16T00:43:20 | 2023-09-19T23:13:44 | 2023-09-19T23:13:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xlp8RaY9cWSJlbGMkcfE | Will OpenAI declare Chapter 7 Bankruptcy by the end of 2024? | See https://tech.co/news/chatgpt-creator-openai-bankrupt for more information about a possible bankruptcy.
Resolves YES if OpenAI files for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy by the end of 2024. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2023-08-15T20:47:06 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-10T15:10:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l9d9FfgZZ9JiOms5MADS | Will xQc debate Ethan (h3h3) or Hasan on his recent gambling streams on Stake by the end of August? | xQc has started gambling on the streaming platform Kick despite claiming in the past that he wouldn't take a gambling sponsorship.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LivestreamFail/comments/15sa0nn/xqc_finally_does_what_brought_him_to_kick_in_the/
Will he debate h3h3 or Hasan on this topic by the end of August? | 2023-08-15T19:13:14 | 2023-09-01T00:12:58 | 2023-09-01T00:12:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GwLcjdl2rQGOsARgdUGV | Will Messi score 2 or more goals? ⚽ 2023 Leagues Cup Final | Regular time, extra time and penalty shootout included if applicable. | 2023-08-15T18:15:37 | 2023-08-19T20:10:17 | 2023-08-19T20:10:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rqwpp4pAqs4kLb41HOXl | Will Lana Del Rey release a new full-length album by the end of 2024 | Must be a full length LP album by 11:59pm EST on December 31st, 2024. | 2023-08-15T17:41:26 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T18:25:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-H2xkY0uXQ6Ba6xMUSzbU | Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture at the 96th Oscars? | Wikipedia: The Academy Awards, also known as the Oscars,[1] are awards for artistic and technical merit for the film industry. They are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), in recognition of excellence in cinematic achievements as assessed by the Academy's voting membership.[2]... | 2023-08-15T17:31:10 | 2024-03-10T20:29:00 | 2024-03-10T20:54:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mdz3WKJF5rTvOiky3ffC | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and George Hotz have a second public debate by Halloween? | Their first debate can be found here.
The participants and hosts all seemed interested in a part 2, and I think there was a lot more to be discussed!
This market resolves YES if there is another public debate between Eliezer and George by market close. | 2023-08-15T16:27:05 | 2023-10-31T23:59:00 | 2023-11-01T06:22:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IZlKM38MW0Es0Bo9qtOT | Will Meta Threads be officially available in the EU before the end of 2023? | Currently Threads app is not accessible in the European Union.
Resolves YES if by the end of 2023 I will be able to download Threads from the App Store and create an account, without the use of VPNs and any other hacks. | 2023-08-15T16:02:42 | 2023-12-14T04:40:27 | 2023-12-14T04:40:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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