id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-cEpnmP3gUQ737efNYWn5 | Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Sep 2023? | Data source for resolution: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
[link preview] | 2023-08-15T14:55:56 | 2023-10-02T08:47:34 | 2023-10-02T08:47:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-opj5PlzaukA7QFM4orvW | Will the Ukrainian Air Force operate F-16s before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-15T14:20:19 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-05T05:15:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W00XSkdIiD7HwqVtvK3y | Will Kanye West release another album by the end of 2025? | Market will resolve by jan 1 2026 est | 2023-08-15T14:02:46 | 2024-02-10T08:29:18 | 2024-02-10T08:29:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0KDT9ceqpmreOCUTkt0m | (2500M Subsidy) Will the WGA writer's strike end by Oct 31? | I'll resolve this using the same criterion as the Kalshi market, which you can find here: https://kalshi.com/markets/wga/writers-strike-ends#wga-23jul31 | 2023-08-15T13:55:02 | 2023-09-27T06:36:12 | 2023-09-27T06:36:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C5t24APb6mCIpYhMDoi6 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of any felony crime by Election Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-15T13:54:08 | 2024-05-31T19:10:45 | 2024-05-31T19:10:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n7RMWlARuKVHVxdW6RsQ | Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by Election Day? | Resolves as soon as he pleads guilty or is convinced, regardless of appeals. | 2023-08-15T13:50:46 | 2024-05-31T19:11:08 | 2024-05-31T19:11:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pCeDtB7qJO2hMKUoLWch | Will Saudi Arabia join BRICS Bank by June 2024? | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-30/brics-bank-to-expand-membership-as-saudi-arabia-looks-to-join | 2023-08-15T11:17:21 | 2024-06-01T13:59:00 | 2024-06-06T23:05:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bX5RyKoZ6qtGg4TSNvGS | Will any of the named co-conspirators in the trump Georgia case flee the United States before the end of this year. | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-15T09:38:16 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:30:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sit5TtTSpBn3Udg9v004 | Will one of the 18 indicted co-conspirators flip in the Georgia trump election interference case by end of 2023? | If the co conspirator was already cooperating it doesn't count- so mark meadows for example may not necessarily count. | 2023-08-15T08:24:58 | 2023-10-03T10:26:51 | 2023-10-03T10:26:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u7HNJpFXa7UtM73WGSrT | Will Dominic Cummings launch a new "startup" party before the next UK General Election? | Resolved yes if Dominic Cummings publicly announces the launch of a new political party before the day on which the next General Election in the UK is held. Definition of party will be any group that plans to achieve electoral votes (i.e. not just a pressure group - may not necessarily be seeking votes in the most immi... | 2023-08-15T05:49:35 | 2024-07-06T13:03:58 | 2024-07-06T13:03:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rs9vtxfhZWyaYTe4J4Vl | Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected? | The nominee, or, whoever comes closest to being nominee, that isn't Trump.
If they say repeatedly (more than once), without contradiction, that they will pardon Trump if they win, this resolves YES.
If they say it once, then when asked they deny it, etc., it will resolve NO. They need to unambiguously pledge to pardo... | 2023-08-15T01:16:55 | 2024-10-31T06:29:00 | 2024-10-31T09:05:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YCpxYoSK3CKv0A2glze5 | Poland 2023 elections: Voter turnout greater than 60% | If more than 60.00% of eligible voters casts vote in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election, this will resolve to YES. | 2023-08-15T01:09:14 | 2023-10-17T10:14:24 | 2023-10-17T10:14:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dJ82dEjdCY9yAZPcSQJd | Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Aug 2023? | Data source for resolution: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
[link preview] | 2023-08-15T00:20:24 | 2023-09-02T00:08:43 | 2023-09-02T00:08:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SsVwjetVoKGRkP41wwZI | Will Vladmir Putin attend the 2023 G20 Summit in New Delhi, India? | Wikipedia: The 2023 G20 New Delhi summit is the upcoming eighteenth meeting of Group of Twenty, a summit scheduled to take place in Bharat Mandapam International Exhibition-Convention Centre, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi in 2023. It will be the first ever G20 summit to be held in India as well as in South Asia. | 2023-08-14T20:55:53 | 2023-09-10T20:59:00 | 2023-09-10T22:05:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nMMy3GcO0HpstW7snPQB | Will Trump be indicted or charged again before October? (After the Georgia indictment) | Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before October (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged in:
The Georgia Election Interference case (August 14)
The Jan 6 case (August 1)
The classified documents case, including the original indictme... | 2023-08-14T20:39:26 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T06:04:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RiAbVIIKjFkjc82JyEQN | Will Julian Assange be extradited to the US by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-14T19:40:15 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:40:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IS6S9ztGbhiiCvXN3Grp | Will Trump be denied bail by a Georgia judge in August? | Resolves YES if a Georgia judge denies Trump bail in August 2023, otherwise NO.
https://twitter.com/TonyHussein4/status/1691196013472608256
Andrew Weissmann explains that due to witness tampering, if indicted in Georgia, Donald Trump might not be granted bail. Just today, on Truth Social, Donald Trump told Jeff Dunca... | 2023-08-14T17:17:57 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-09-01T05:25:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-raRM8T0nbEBpt4BxZrOy | Will MrBeast do a Cybertruck giveaway in a video in 2023 | Will Mr Beast Release a Video in 2023 where one of the segments has him giving away a Cybertruck to a contestant | 2023-08-14T17:07:52 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:48:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8LVgVmaW5uM5XmRLzdMk | Will Javier Milei be elected President of Argentina on 22 October 2023? | The market will be resolved upon the official certification of the election results by the relevant Argentine regulatory authority.
The market resolves as YES if, and only if, Milei is elected in the October election without a runoff. | 2023-08-14T15:58:18 | 2023-11-02T10:15:27 | 2023-11-02T10:15:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lhjiBQv8iow82irPRRJE | Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2024? | Assange is accused of conspiring to hack into US military databases to acquire sensitive secret information, which was then published by Wikileaks.
He says the information exposed abuses by the US military and that the case against him is politically motivated.
US prosecutors say the leaks put lives at risk. They req... | 2023-08-14T14:07:42 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-13T00:09:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pKRDOGC46ge5B3mTDrKt | Will Trump smile in his mugshot? (Resolves NO if no mugshot by September 30) | Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-smile-in-his-mugshot-1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is smiling in his front-view mugshot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This mugshot will resolve based on the first front-view mugshot released after this market's incep... | 2023-08-14T13:36:55 | 2023-08-25T06:56:47 | 2023-08-25T06:56:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF | Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1? | Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/trump-mugshot-by
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of ex-president Donald John Trump taken after July 31 is made widely available to the public by September 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will reso... | 2023-08-14T13:35:06 | 2023-08-24T19:05:18 | 2023-08-24T19:05:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UoMoa77KkF1E6AWfzOSY | Will Neuralink begin testing its neural chip in humans by the end of 2023? | This prediction market aims to determine whether Neuralink, a neurotechnology company co-founded by Elon Musk, will begin testing its neural chip in humans by the end of 2023. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from Neuralink, or news reports from major news outlets that Futuur deems credibl... | 2023-08-14T13:19:16 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:08:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dlj3V5taelhonLO6SXLE | Will Hunter Biden's case go to trial by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-14T12:52:56 | 2024-06-04T10:44:50 | 2024-06-04T10:44:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tPToz1DMmnDYnbQpwDE7 | Will Robert Fico become prime minister of Slovakia by Feb 2024? | Party Smer founded and led by Robert Fico is currently leading the polls. There is a good change that he will win the parlimentary elections in September 2023 and become a prime minister.
The question resolves YES if at any point until Feb 1 2024 Robert Fico becomes a prime minister of a government with confidence gi... | 2023-08-14T12:34:11 | 2023-11-21T03:35:22 | 2023-11-21T03:35:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3bRPqCPsWRhKAfyFjGE8 | Will GitHub be down on August 15th 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-15 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be ... | 2023-08-14T12:31:51 | 2023-08-15T15:00:00 | 2023-08-16T04:37:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-66uAF8WxSFHpR6so3KSg | Will another large US university announce large faculty cuts in 2023? | Background:
West Virginia University recently announced plans to cut 7% of its faculty. Alex Tabarrok, writing in Marginal Revolution, says "the only surprise is how long it has taken for the ax to fall. You can be sure, however, that there is more chopping to be done." Will other universities soon face similar cuts?
... | 2023-08-14T12:12:15 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:15:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VbfdJ8IjPJvvKCz1JLI4 | Will at least one judge find that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Resolves positive if there is any court judgment anywhere in the USA in which one or more individual judges holds that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This resolves positive even if the opinion of the court collectively holds that Trump can run, as long as there is a dissent f... | 2023-08-14T10:36:29 | 2023-12-20T09:21:05 | 2023-12-20T09:21:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8JsYjjx0koSIzOC2msha | Will Sam Bankman-Fried plead guilty by the end of 2024? | Sam Bankman-Fried is on trial for fraud and other charges related to his running FTX. He's pled "not guilty" to all charges. On August 11th, his bail was revoked and he was sent to jail.
This question resolves to "Yes" if he pleads guilty to any charge(s), either ones he's already been charged with or new ones, before... | 2023-08-14T10:36:02 | 2025-01-01T08:31:56 | 2025-01-01T08:31:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TgUcAKASpz510Zw80raL | Will Julian Assange be extradited to the US by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-14T09:29:34 | 2023-12-31T20:49:49 | 2023-12-31T20:49:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OZg2IeEiY5tJgOfe9uAR | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 17 than it closed on August 16? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $28,700.50
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/Sept... | 2023-08-14T08:34:30 | 2023-08-17T16:00:00 | 2023-08-18T05:16:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-38B8r6IwpoVbRPMbQ7Gd | Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be the highest rated game of all time on OpenCritic at the end of 2023? | At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 is currently listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic:
https://opencritic.com/browse/all
If it is still the highest rated game (it must be ranked 1 on the linked list) at the end of 2023, this question will resolve YES. | 2023-08-14T08:22:09 | 2024-01-01T04:47:53 | 2024-01-01T04:47:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PeKhU08bM6UfGT92T4aG | Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $450 per share on August 18, 2023? | Weekly prediction on how Nvidia stock will perform
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $450 USD on the closing price of 18 of August, 2023. Any moves above $450 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
[link preview] | 2023-08-14T07:57:00 | 2023-08-19T06:28:16 | 2023-08-19T06:28:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PRbwl1c281cIhqSr7xRk | Will Apple provide health insurance by 2025? | Apple Watch is one of the leading wearable sensing devices on the market. With Apple HealthKit, they have incorporated metrics and alerts that may help people monitor and reduce their risk of a health event. Given that they now have years of health data and have recently incorporated the option of access health records... | 2023-08-14T04:48:56 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-29T08:58:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4jv062Xyg10YmaSZV8Ti | Will Barbie gross $1.5 billion worldwide by the end of 2023? | The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $1.18 billion worldwide.
That makes it the second film of the year (after the Super Mario Bros Movie) to hit the Billon Dollar mark and Manifold users currently give it a higher than 80% chance of hitting $1.2 billion:
@/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-14-billi... | 2023-08-14T03:46:38 | 2024-01-01T03:21:45 | 2024-01-01T03:21:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZBheRfS9B8LYE9XPaPFm | Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be one of the top 5 highest rated games of all time on OpenCritic at the end of 2023? | At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 was listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic:
https://opencritic.com/browse/all
If it is still one of the top 5 highest rated games on OpenCritic (it must be ranked in the top 5 on the linked list) at the end of 2023 in any timezone, this question w... | 2023-08-14T03:03:09 | 2024-01-01T03:18:34 | 2024-01-01T03:18:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YPhenv5Mbu89zqQ2CQwV | Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be the highest rated game of all time on OpenCritic at the end of August 2023? | At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 is currently listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic:
https://opencritic.com/browse/all
If it is still the highest rated game (it must be ranked 1 on the linked list) at the end of August 2023, this question will resolve YES. | 2023-08-14T03:00:35 | 2023-09-01T03:06:14 | 2023-09-01T03:06:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jeOIIvjGhHOIJh0o6KXi | Will Javier Milei win the 2023 Argentinian presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-14T02:30:44 | 2023-11-19T04:59:00 | 2023-11-19T15:55:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IfGQzJICg05fKTIsz50K | Will Man City win a double or more this season? | Any two or more of:
Champions League
Premier League
FA Cup
Carabao Cup | 2023-08-14T01:26:41 | 2024-05-29T16:11:25 | 2024-05-29T16:11:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O7nk1SONGBS1JBltXwvx | Will we find out by the end of 2024 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages? | Could've been using it in 2023 or 2022 or 2021, but the discovery of specifically using LLMs for specifically generating propaganda messages happens before end of 2024
Gary marcus seems to think so. | 2023-08-14T00:05:48 | 2024-06-01T02:34:46 | 2024-06-01T02:34:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bHpnLmsU6OFvKpYN6YvG | Will Joe Rogan do a podcast with Donald Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-13T22:31:20 | 2024-10-25T23:11:49 | 2024-10-25T23:11:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n5vazeeixBqocWq5HxNb | Will Lebron James retire in the 2024 NBA Season? | He's going to be almost 40 years old, will he still play or wait for his son to join the league? | 2023-08-13T20:22:58 | 2024-08-31T22:59:00 | 2024-09-30T21:37:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DyE298Rgs5FRCpOFxGOv | Will the rumor of Elon Musk acquiring US Steel for the $X symbol be confirmed before October 2023? | A tweet from Robert Sterling sparked a rumor that Elon Musk may have submitted a bid to acquire US Steel, a company with a $5B market cap, just to acquire the $X stock symbol. Will this rumor be officially confirmed?
{resolution_criteria: Official confirmation from Elon Musk, US Steel, or credible news sources}
{sour... | 2023-08-13T18:14:17 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-02T15:59:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mORQBpoDmvdy9XbZsEjD | Will Elon Live Stream himself going to confront Zuckerberg before Aug 20? | Elon states that he will bang on zuckerbergs door....
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1690854352691314688
Also, If you doubt this will happen but want a less restrictive variant on just live streaming on X outside of SF office:
https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-elon-musk-live-stream-from-twi | 2023-08-13T17:17:41 | 2023-08-20T20:59:00 | 2023-08-20T21:11:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tGofwBVJds4hs1JELdKU | Will Australia beat England during regular time on Wednesday, August 16, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup | ⚽ Australia W 🏠 vs 🏃 England W
📅 Date: Wednesday, August 16, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 10:00
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
The home team 🏠 has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of reg... | 2023-08-13T13:50:48 | 2023-08-16T04:57:07 | 2023-08-16T04:57:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gbk4Av7VpKZ5BBcAbUTB | Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023? | Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happene... | 2023-08-13T12:07:39 | 2023-10-31T15:14:05 | 2023-10-31T15:14:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-seK5g7toEr7AM7wI0Dn8 | Do you think Starfield will win Game of the year at the 2023 Game Awards? | Starfield is an upcoming action role-playing game developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. | 2023-08-13T11:11:37 | 2023-11-14T16:50:24 | 2023-11-14T16:50:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FKz8SqgBmKOtAO5O6Se8 | Will Manchester City beat Sevilla? ⚽ 2023 UEFA Super Cup | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-13T11:09:08 | 2023-08-16T14:09:43 | 2023-08-16T14:09:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2GSUU7BaQPvTA6A7AHQt | Will there be more than 1,000 deaths in the Maui wildfires? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-13T10:27:30 | 2023-09-02T05:45:22 | 2023-09-02T05:45:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wbMFRwhSKUnfDH2ePcE9 | Little Mermaid vs. Tom Cruise: Will Mission Impossible surpass Little Mermaid at the worldwide box office? | Will resolve to YES if Mission Impossible surpasses Little Mermaid here:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/ | 2023-08-13T10:23:39 | 2023-12-31T21:51:24 | 2023-12-31T21:51:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rM4U6SABpftpjJjlB6qV | Will Messi complete the 2023 MLS season without an injury? | To be counted as an injury, would need to be out 1+ MLS season games. Injury can happen outside of regular MLS games. Being out for less than 1 full game will not count. | 2023-08-13T09:08:38 | 2023-09-20T11:03:02 | 2023-09-20T11:03:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v2jwsxgNPWzqHM7W5bkl | Will Lewandowski be the top goal scorer? ⚽ 2023/24 La Liga | 2023/24 La Liga season top goal scorer? | 2023-08-13T08:49:42 | 2024-05-28T03:55:23 | 2024-05-28T03:55:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J2UrLoCuimfQylyH6mfw | Will a non-European team make it to the round of 16 at UEFA Euro 2024? | Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Israel, Cyprus and Armenia | 2023-08-13T08:49:24 | 2024-06-26T13:55:57 | 2024-06-26T13:55:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ebkv4gOWUZ01D7c6TjuU | Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Women's World Cup Final | Women's World Cup Final 8/20 | 2023-08-13T08:46:38 | 2023-08-20T04:11:02 | 2023-08-20T04:11:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5gCwl1DJHkR1fLP3ZXAf | Will each team score? ⚽ Women's World Cup Final | Women's World Cup Final 8/20
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
Extra time included, but not penalty shootout. | 2023-08-13T08:44:10 | 2023-08-20T05:06:04 | 2023-08-20T05:06:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w2djJtTCUu6iUSEnIWf9 | Will Wrexham AFC be promoted to League one at the end of the 23/24 Season? | Any route to promotion will still qualify as a Yes | 2023-08-13T08:02:29 | 2024-04-13T09:27:15 | 2024-04-13T09:27:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6t5wCsdPNcUFLL61F2Fz | Will Travis Scott win a Grammy for Best Rap Album of 2023? | Travis Scott released his 4th Studio Solo Album: Utopia, met so far with a mostly positive reception, with some mixed reviews here and there. | 2023-08-13T07:51:00 | 2024-02-05T15:33:57 | 2024-02-05T15:33:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DVjUYpL6pwTgZKax1cHs | Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024? | There are a number of organizations moving to disqualify candidates for participating in the Jan 6th 2021 riot at the US Capitol using section 3 of 14th Amendment to the US Constitution which reads:
"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any off... | 2023-08-13T06:35:03 | 2024-03-06T04:54:27 | 2024-03-06T04:54:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I29bnrHdAsZcJ8WHOXIW | Will Boeing Starliner Launch with Crewed Mission before July 2024 | https://mynorthwest.com/3918175/boeing-starliner-delays-crewed-launch-till-march-2024/
[link preview] | 2023-08-13T05:55:11 | 2024-06-06T21:43:50 | 2024-06-06T21:43:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-00AsbVSFtJja5RfqONs9 | Will rusian lunar module luna-25 land succesfully on target area on Moon? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25
resolution will be en wiki based. Landing is expected 25 Aug 2023. | 2023-08-13T03:01:30 | 2023-08-20T03:10:21 | 2023-08-20T03:10:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MTig8vOauJz75BQW0AwZ | Will we see a practical implementation of "Thermodynamic Linear Algebra" in the next year? | Looking for a publication that explicitly cites the above publication https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.05660, and implements a proposed method in a physical experiment. Can be a preprint.
Follow up question: https://manifold.markets/Thomas42/will-we-see-a-thermodynamic-linear
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-w... | 2023-08-13T02:38:51 | 2023-11-10T12:03:56 | 2023-11-10T12:03:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0QkP05LbdkEAlOq5nOPC | Will destiny reach 703k subscribers in August? | According to https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
other August subscriber markets:
@/CourierSix/will-destiny-reach-750k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-f62d9ac83d07
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-706k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-703k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-702... | 2023-08-13T01:11:10 | 2023-09-01T00:00:00 | 2023-09-01T00:29:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ud43sSgIUr896xDXPrLm | Will Space X go public by 31st December 2024? | Will SpaceX IPO happen ( list and start to trade ) before 31st December 2024?
[image] | 2023-08-13T00:25:39 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-04T03:19:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-q3HpFD6wet9NY7dyAUKY | Will the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) be successfully attacked once again by 2024? | Famous for having been hit twice (even if the amount of damage was not catastrophic), news reports of the Kerch bridge being attacked are widely shared within Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia may well step up their security of the bridge rendering future attacks harder.
If by the end of the year the BBC does not rep... | 2023-08-13T00:06:29 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:30:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-958ReahfbbIt0BOqxmnc | Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.0090 in 2023?? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00900 at any time between August 13, 2022, and the resolution time of December 31, 2022, 23:59, and “No” otherwise. The official resolution source will be
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&... | 2023-08-12T23:30:27 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:23:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S9h66WahZPgrBBdLpS2K | Will Brandon Herrera Win The Republican Primary For TX-23 in 2024? | RUNOFF IS ON MAY 28 2024
Brandon Herrera is a YouTuber running for US House against incumbent Tony Gonzales. This market resolves "Yes" if he wins the republican primary and "No" otherwise, including if he is no longer running. | 2023-08-12T21:21:28 | 2024-05-29T04:26:12 | 2024-05-29T04:26:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nxhnAhhq2dLpsgJ77a2f | Will Unicode 16.0.0 add at least 10 new emoji? | The number of new emoji has been trending down over time:
Unicode 13.0 added 55 emoji
Unicode 14.0 added 37 emoji
Unicode 15.0 added 20 emoji
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unicode#Versions
As of 2023-08-13, there are 7 emoji requests "Under Consideration", with 41 as "Prioritization Pending".
https://unicode.org/... | 2023-08-12T21:11:47 | 2024-09-11T07:01:27 | 2024-09-11T07:01:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gLPdjYyUT3goFXTwsq8c | Will Tesla announce giga factory in India by 2023? | Tesla will be entering India in near future, will it happen in 2023?
Any official announcement by tesla about giga India and the location (usually via X (Twitter) ) will be resolved as yes. | 2023-08-12T15:43:27 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:36:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E9gussHPn0y2rIVu3R9U | Will Q3 2023 US GDP growth be above 3.5%? | Market will be resolved on October 26th according to the BEA advanced Q3 gdp estimate.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Make sure to check the Atlanta Fed GDP now for semi-official forecasts :)
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Also look at the Philadelphia Fed surveys:
https://www... | 2023-08-12T15:17:19 | 2023-10-26T08:08:15 | 2023-10-26T08:08:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ro2gVHHjM6UHZfJiXllv | Will Donald Trump be banned from running for President under the insurrection clause of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Will Donald Trump be banned from running for President under the insurrection clause of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
Resolves positively if there's a court decision that prevents Donald Trump running, and as a result he is unable to appear on the final ballot in at least one state where he could be competitive, or... | 2023-08-12T15:17:10 | 2024-11-09T16:59:04 | 2024-11-09T16:59:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gpM3yyint2oFf7dRUoUY | Will Luffy and Kizaru Clash/fight in 1091? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-12T14:47:54 | 2023-09-04T11:35:18 | 2023-09-04T11:35:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NUHgZ8WTtvqw0x6okFbz | Will e/acc bootstrap an e/acc hedge fund by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-12T14:03:12 | 2023-12-31T14:00:00 | 2023-12-31T16:45:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P6lnyT9wzvqgJcFzNPFJ | Will Spain beat Sweden during regular time on Tuesday, August 15, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup | #⚽ Spain W 🏠 vs 🏃 Sweden W
📅 Date: Tuesday, August 15, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 08:00
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
The home team 🏠 has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular t... | 2023-08-12T13:45:12 | 2023-08-15T03:27:30 | 2023-08-15T03:27:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CoxtvVBZuV6Ah3uCSKVa | Will Viktor Orban be prime minister of Hungary at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-12T12:50:34 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:02:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uIl8y1Jf9mwTWkl21SJf | Will any new country adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by the end of 2024? | except for Salvador and the Central African Republic, which have officially adopted Bitcoin as their legal tender
(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/what-country-will-be-next-to-make-b) | 2023-08-12T09:59:39 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:36:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kg1lLy5AmTzR4KSOrfNm | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an agreement to purchase Figma for $20 billion USD.
Since then, reports have emerged that the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal.
Adobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023,... | 2023-08-12T07:29:51 | 2023-12-18T07:05:37 | 2023-12-18T07:05:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gATY0CJxtry4eSDS3Hlu | Will the price for ChatGPT Plus still be USD $20/month on Aug 12th 2024? | Resolves YES if ChatGPT Plus still exists and the price is still exactly $20/mo, otherwise resolves NO. | 2023-08-12T06:41:46 | 2024-08-12T05:53:07 | 2024-08-12T05:53:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0SpoHzAZnLi3gxwDMcSq | Will Philadelphia beat Inter Miami? ⚽ 2023 Leagues Cup | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-12T06:13:27 | 2023-08-15T18:08:12 | 2023-08-15T18:08:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AUnBNhAKXJeqnoCrXdIk | Will any player be shown a red card in the semi-final stage of the Women's World Cup? | Straight red or yellow-red counts as a YES. | 2023-08-12T05:45:25 | 2023-08-16T04:59:18 | 2023-08-16T04:59:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QGfNZo6sJPezcF62I2Mk | Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Australia vs England | Women's World Cup | 2023-08-12T05:38:29 | 2023-08-16T04:53:00 | 2023-08-16T04:53:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wPpMddHGRHGkXkY7D7EC | Will Australia defeat England in the semi-finals of the Women’s World Cup 2023? | Resolves YES if Australia wins their semi-finals match and advances and NO if England do. A draw is not possible. If the match does not occur for a reason other than forfeit the market resolves N/A.
Close date is set for after the game but the market may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market. | 2023-08-12T05:36:05 | 2023-08-16T04:54:56 | 2023-08-16T04:54:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3QwO12pvig3Pli0SMZ7O | Will England beat Australia in the women's world cup semi final? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-12T05:35:38 | 2023-08-16T06:00:00 | 2023-08-16T06:36:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ruqli4JlfRE4jjPSOueS | Will there be a coalition between the AfD and the CDU in Germany at least at the municipal level by 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-12T05:02:57 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-03-01T08:24:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QPr9D3YGPGXqRxhpIO7K | 2023 Poland elections: Will Konfederacja win more than 50 seats to Sejm? | Will resolve to the number of MPs from Konfederacja list after the 2023 elections' results | 2023-08-12T04:20:44 | 2023-10-18T02:51:20 | 2023-10-18T02:51:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kn2ElQcGRN8XFrzr7Ept | Will Australia make it to the Women’s football World Cup final? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-12T03:39:52 | 2023-08-16T05:06:26 | 2023-08-16T05:06:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y93SSNlnczq4NckCBBM4 | Will the SEC approve any Bitcoin spot ETF in 2023? | A Bitcoin ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, would be a financial product that lets people invest in Bitcoin without having to buy and store the actual digital currency. Instead, they'd be buying shares of the ETF, much like they might buy shares of a stock or another fund. A "spot" ETF, specifically, would be based on the ... | 2023-08-12T00:06:05 | 2023-12-30T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:55:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TWtLiAKD9fk4o1kpJhKk | Will an Indian GM play in the FIDE World Cup 2023 final? | At the start of round 5 there are four Indian players still left: Gukesh D, Vidit, Erigaisi and Praggnanandhaa R. Will at least one of them play in the final match, for the win on the open section of FIDE Wold Cup 2023? | 2023-08-11T22:45:25 | 2023-08-21T12:00:03 | 2023-08-21T12:00:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4PV3MKfJMpt5vIEXNp6O | Will $TSLA close above $250 this week? | Will resolve as YES if the stock price of Tesla, Inc. is greater than $250.00 at the close of this week, Friday August 18th. Will resolve as no otherwise. | 2023-08-11T17:54:12 | 2023-08-18T13:00:51 | 2023-08-18T13:00:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EkdbW7llSUk7b5Rjqjdk | Will the U.S. Congress pass, by January 10, 2025, a major bill which regulates AI? | Will the U.S. Congress pass, and the President sign, a bill by January 10, 2025 11:59 PM EST that meets one or more of the criteria for 'Major AI Regulation'?
Criteria:
- Privacy and Data Rights
- Mandates the explicit informed consent of individuals before their personal data is collected
or processed by AI system... | 2023-08-11T17:00:11 | 2025-01-11T20:59:00 | 2025-01-27T16:13:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SB1fD4yvedDS36kS2JXX | Will Victor Wembanyama win Rookie of the Year? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-11T16:02:57 | 2024-04-14T20:59:00 | 2024-05-06T16:06:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OGe81V99MTvUddyEc0xL | Will the Russian moon lander suffer a catastrophic failure? | Resolves YES if the lander fails before achieving its objective. Landing scheduled for 8/21 currently. | 2023-08-11T14:44:24 | 2023-08-20T06:05:15 | 2023-08-20T06:05:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DdBeeSt6RcAYbteooNLR | France will beat the All Blacks (New Zealand rugby team) in the opening match of Rugby World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if France beat the All Blacks in the opening match of Rugby World Cup 2023.
Otherwise resolves NO | 2023-08-11T14:00:23 | 2023-09-08T14:15:07 | 2023-09-08T14:15:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T6tRsPn52mo2uUFMfG5R | Will a new mainline 3D Mario game release in 2024? | [image] | 2023-08-11T13:20:47 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-20T10:25:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EQxFTOMtsXimVacqftuN | Will in the Women's World Cup Final play England against Spain? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-11T11:22:52 | 2023-08-16T05:24:07 | 2023-08-16T05:24:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2sWuaQx9Y66eWHGadh8B | Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas at any point during 2023? | Could happen after the end of official hurricane season and still count. | 2023-08-11T11:19:19 | 2023-12-30T23:10:00 | 2023-12-31T21:08:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DzwIc9RBnrDQMCB8gpOZ | Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana at any point during 2023? | Could happen after the end of official hurricane season and still count. | 2023-08-11T11:18:34 | 2023-12-31T20:22:57 | 2023-12-31T20:22:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z0K007d4rEzQcMyDWQQ9 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg schedule a fight by April 1, 2024? | Specific date motivated by this market on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/musk-vs-zuck-apr-1, which resolves 50-50 if no fight is scheduled by April 1, 2024.
If no fight is scheduled by April 1, 2024, this Question resolves NO.
If the fights happens before April 1, 2024, or the market on Polymarket stays ope... | 2023-08-11T10:53:14 | 2024-04-01T14:59:00 | 2024-04-01T21:02:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b3XeBD9qJLdhyjnzGBMi | Will the Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg fight happen in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-11T10:05:01 | 2024-12-31T10:03:00 | 2024-12-31T15:02:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9oxIAI3RkC6rI6qgxcci | Will the fight between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg happen on March 15th, 2024? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1690028306014343168 | 2023-08-11T09:31:31 | 2024-03-15T15:59:00 | 2024-03-15T21:52:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1MQoHSYRgBNH5GT7t97q | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg schedule a fight by August 31, 2023? | Specific date motivated by this market on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/musk-vs-zuck-aug-31, which resolves 50-50 if no fight is scheduled by August 31, 2023.
If no fight is scheduled by August 31, 2023, this Question resolves NO.
If the market on Polymarket stays open for longer because a fight is schedul... | 2023-08-11T08:50:24 | 2023-08-31T23:32:37 | 2023-08-31T23:32:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
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