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mani-cEpnmP3gUQ737efNYWn5
Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Sep 2023?
Data source for resolution: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ [link preview]
2023-08-15T14:55:56
2023-10-02T08:47:34
2023-10-02T08:47:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-opj5PlzaukA7QFM4orvW
Will the Ukrainian Air Force operate F-16s before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-15T14:20:19
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-05T05:15:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-W00XSkdIiD7HwqVtvK3y
Will Kanye West release another album by the end of 2025?
Market will resolve by jan 1 2026 est
2023-08-15T14:02:46
2024-02-10T08:29:18
2024-02-10T08:29:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0KDT9ceqpmreOCUTkt0m
(2500M Subsidy) Will the WGA writer's strike end by Oct 31?
I'll resolve this using the same criterion as the Kalshi market, which you can find here: https://kalshi.com/markets/wga/writers-strike-ends#wga-23jul31
2023-08-15T13:55:02
2023-09-27T06:36:12
2023-09-27T06:36:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-C5t24APb6mCIpYhMDoi6
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any felony crime by Election Day?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-15T13:54:08
2024-05-31T19:10:45
2024-05-31T19:10:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-n7RMWlARuKVHVxdW6RsQ
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by Election Day?
Resolves as soon as he pleads guilty or is convinced, regardless of appeals.
2023-08-15T13:50:46
2024-05-31T19:11:08
2024-05-31T19:11:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pCeDtB7qJO2hMKUoLWch
Will Saudi Arabia join BRICS Bank by June 2024?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-30/brics-bank-to-expand-membership-as-saudi-arabia-looks-to-join
2023-08-15T11:17:21
2024-06-01T13:59:00
2024-06-06T23:05:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bX5RyKoZ6qtGg4TSNvGS
Will any of the named co-conspirators in the trump Georgia case flee the United States before the end of this year.
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-15T09:38:16
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T07:30:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Sit5TtTSpBn3Udg9v004
Will one of the 18 indicted co-conspirators flip in the Georgia trump election interference case by end of 2023?
If the co conspirator was already cooperating it doesn't count- so mark meadows for example may not necessarily count.
2023-08-15T08:24:58
2023-10-03T10:26:51
2023-10-03T10:26:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-u7HNJpFXa7UtM73WGSrT
Will Dominic Cummings launch a new "startup" party before the next UK General Election?
Resolved yes if Dominic Cummings publicly announces the launch of a new political party before the day on which the next General Election in the UK is held. Definition of party will be any group that plans to achieve electoral votes (i.e. not just a pressure group - may not necessarily be seeking votes in the most imminent General Election). He previously posted about this on his substack: https://dominiccummings.substack.com/ [link preview]"Already I’m getting messages from MPs and donors ‘How do we rebuild the Party after the inevitable, can we have a quiet chat?’ NO NO NO. No more excruciating Tory dinners. No more ‘X is obviously not up to it but … maybe … we could build a team around them, oh god pass the red…’ NO. Plough the old Tory Party into the earth with salt. I prefer the calls that start, ‘Come on, it’s time for the startup party let’s go’. This is the time to start building the replacement so that from 2200 on election night in October-December 2024 the old Party is buried and a new set of people with new ideas start talking to the country and can take over in 2028 and give voters the sort of government they want and deserve." "NB. please remember what I said before, a new party is a startup and it’s a good way to think about this project, but The Startup Party isn’t an actual name, it’s a place holder, plenty of time for horrific arguments about names if we make this real!"
2023-08-15T05:49:35
2024-07-06T13:03:58
2024-07-06T13:03:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rs9vtxfhZWyaYTe4J4Vl
Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected?
The nominee, or, whoever comes closest to being nominee, that isn't Trump. If they say repeatedly (more than once), without contradiction, that they will pardon Trump if they win, this resolves YES. If they say it once, then when asked they deny it, etc., it will resolve NO. They need to unambiguously pledge to pardon Trump if they win.
2023-08-15T01:16:55
2024-10-31T06:29:00
2024-10-31T09:05:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YCpxYoSK3CKv0A2glze5
Poland 2023 elections: Voter turnout greater than 60%
If more than 60.00% of eligible voters casts vote in the 2023 Polish parliamentary election, this will resolve to YES.
2023-08-15T01:09:14
2023-10-17T10:14:24
2023-10-17T10:14:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dJ82dEjdCY9yAZPcSQJd
Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Aug 2023?
Data source for resolution: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ [link preview]
2023-08-15T00:20:24
2023-09-02T00:08:43
2023-09-02T00:08:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SsVwjetVoKGRkP41wwZI
Will Vladmir Putin attend the 2023 G20 Summit in New Delhi, India?
Wikipedia: The 2023 G20 New Delhi summit is the upcoming eighteenth meeting of Group of Twenty, a summit scheduled to take place in Bharat Mandapam International Exhibition-Convention Centre, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi in 2023. It will be the first ever G20 summit to be held in India as well as in South Asia.
2023-08-14T20:55:53
2023-09-10T20:59:00
2023-09-10T22:05:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nMMy3GcO0HpstW7snPQB
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before October? (After the Georgia indictment)
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before October (Eastern time). Trump has already been charged in: The Georgia Election Interference case (August 14) The Jan 6 case (August 1) The classified documents case, including the original indictment (June 8) and superseding indictment (July 27). The Stormy Daniels hush money case (March 30) See https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/ Details: Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges. This question will use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications. Please note: this is different than previous questions - this is no longer using the date of a grand jury vote to indict. [link preview]
2023-08-14T20:39:26
2023-09-30T20:59:00
2023-10-01T06:04:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RiAbVIIKjFkjc82JyEQN
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the US by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-14T19:40:15
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T03:40:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IS6S9ztGbhiiCvXN3Grp
Will Trump be denied bail by a Georgia judge in August?
Resolves YES if a Georgia judge denies Trump bail in August 2023, otherwise NO. https://twitter.com/TonyHussein4/status/1691196013472608256 Andrew Weissmann explains that due to witness tampering, if indicted in Georgia, Donald Trump might not be granted bail. Just today, on Truth Social, Donald Trump told Jeff Duncan NOT TO TESTIFY before the Fulton County Grand Jury. The definition of "denying bail" here is the legal definition in the relevant jurisdication. If that is unclear, then a consensus of reliable media reporting may be used.
2023-08-14T17:17:57
2023-08-31T20:59:00
2023-09-01T05:25:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-raRM8T0nbEBpt4BxZrOy
Will MrBeast do a Cybertruck giveaway in a video in 2023
Will Mr Beast Release a Video in 2023 where one of the segments has him giving away a Cybertruck to a contestant
2023-08-14T17:07:52
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T00:48:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8LVgVmaW5uM5XmRLzdMk
Will Javier Milei be elected President of Argentina on 22 October 2023?
The market will be resolved upon the official certification of the election results by the relevant Argentine regulatory authority. The market resolves as YES if, and only if, Milei is elected in the October election without a runoff.
2023-08-14T15:58:18
2023-11-02T10:15:27
2023-11-02T10:15:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lhjiBQv8iow82irPRRJE
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2024?
Assange is accused of conspiring to hack into US military databases to acquire sensitive secret information, which was then published by Wikileaks. He says the information exposed abuses by the US military and that the case against him is politically motivated. US prosecutors say the leaks put lives at risk. They requested Assange's extradition from the UK, where he is currently in prison. On June 17, 2022, the United Kingdom approved Julian Assange’s extradition to the United States to face charges, primarily under the nation’s Espionage Act, for releasing US government records that revealed the US military committed war crimes against civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq, including the killing of two Reuters journalists. If found guilty, Assange faces a jail term of up to 175 years. Extradition allows one country to ask another to hand over a suspect to face trial. Every time the US wants to put a suspect who is in the UK on trial, its prosecutors ask the British government. If the request has been made correctly, the home secretary sends it on to the courts, which issue a warrant for the suspect to be found and arrested. Once the individual has been detained, a judge examines the request. The judge must be satisfied that the individual is definitely the suspect the US seeks, and that the alleged crime is an offence that could lead to trial in the UK, had the incident happened on its territory. The judge must also consider whether the person has already been prosecuted for the crime, or whether the offence happened in a different country entirely. Under UK law, Parliament has banned extraditing anyone to face trial in a country that has the death penalty, unless the requesting nation has promised not to impose it. Any final decision on extradition to the US is made by the home secretary. The suspect can, however, appeal against extradition - a process that can last more than a year. The appeal could go all the way to the UK Supreme Court or European Court of Human Rights. The UK has previously blocked a number of extraditions to the US on human-rights grounds.
2023-08-14T14:07:42
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-13T00:09:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pKRDOGC46ge5B3mTDrKt
Will Trump smile in his mugshot? (Resolves NO if no mugshot by September 30)
Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-smile-in-his-mugshot-1 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is smiling in his front-view mugshot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This mugshot will resolve based on the first front-view mugshot released after this market's inception; if no mugshot is released by September 30, 2023 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and/or official information from law enforcement. Determination as to whether Trump is smiling in his mugshot will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA. [link preview]
2023-08-14T13:36:55
2023-08-25T06:56:47
2023-08-25T06:56:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF
Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?
Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/trump-mugshot-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of ex-president Donald John Trump taken after July 31 is made widely available to the public by September 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of Donald Trump becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, etc. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government. [link preview]
2023-08-14T13:35:06
2023-08-24T19:05:18
2023-08-24T19:05:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UoMoa77KkF1E6AWfzOSY
Will Neuralink begin testing its neural chip in humans by the end of 2023?
This prediction market aims to determine whether Neuralink, a neurotechnology company co-founded by Elon Musk, will begin testing its neural chip in humans by the end of 2023. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from Neuralink, or news reports from major news outlets that Futuur deems credible. The market will resolve as 'Yes' if Neuralink begins its human trials involving implanting a neural chip in living human brains at any point in 2023, and 'No' if it does not. For this market, "begin testing" refers to the start of the actual implementation of the neural chip in human subjects, regardless of the number of subjects or the duration of the trial. The commencement of testing is not simply determined by receiving regulatory approval, but rather by the actual initiation of human trials as confirmed by Neuralink or reliable news sources.
2023-08-14T13:19:16
2024-01-01T20:59:00
2024-01-01T21:08:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Dlj3V5taelhonLO6SXLE
Will Hunter Biden's case go to trial by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-14T12:52:56
2024-06-04T10:44:50
2024-06-04T10:44:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tPToz1DMmnDYnbQpwDE7
Will Robert Fico become prime minister of Slovakia by Feb 2024?
Party Smer founded and led by Robert Fico is currently leading the polls. There is a good change that he will win the parlimentary elections in September 2023 and become a prime minister. The question resolves YES if at any point until Feb 1 2024 Robert Fico becomes a prime minister of a government with confidence given by voting of parliment. (Even if he would lost the position, or the government lost the confidence of parliment later.) It resolves NO if it did not happen by the closing date.
2023-08-14T12:34:11
2023-11-21T03:35:22
2023-11-21T03:35:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3bRPqCPsWRhKAfyFjGE8
Will GitHub be down on August 15th 2023?
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-15 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC. Will resolve to NO otherwise. Resolution times: If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe. If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
2023-08-14T12:31:51
2023-08-15T15:00:00
2023-08-16T04:37:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-66uAF8WxSFHpR6so3KSg
Will another large US university announce large faculty cuts in 2023?
Background: West Virginia University recently announced plans to cut 7% of its faculty. Alex Tabarrok, writing in Marginal Revolution, says "the only surprise is how long it has taken for the ax to fall. You can be sure, however, that there is more chopping to be done." Will other universities soon face similar cuts? Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if another US institution of higher education (e.g. univeristy, college, institute of technology) with 10,000 or more enrolled students announces plans to cut 5% or more of its faculty positions. The announcement must be made in 2023, on or after 2023-08-14, and it must plan to reach the cut threshold in the next 5 years. Enrollment numbers are for the 2023 fall term and include undergraduate and graduate students. The thresholds refer to the entire institution. For example, in the case of the University of California, Berkeley, the criteria refer to the University of California, Berkeley, and not to the whole UC system or e.g. the Haas School of Business. I will not bet in this market.
2023-08-14T12:12:15
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:15:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VbfdJ8IjPJvvKCz1JLI4
Will at least one judge find that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
Resolves positive if there is any court judgment anywhere in the USA in which one or more individual judges holds that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This resolves positive even if the opinion of the court collectively holds that Trump can run, as long as there is a dissent from at least one judge in the court that he cannot.
2023-08-14T10:36:29
2023-12-20T09:21:05
2023-12-20T09:21:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8JsYjjx0koSIzOC2msha
Will Sam Bankman-Fried plead guilty by the end of 2024?
Sam Bankman-Fried is on trial for fraud and other charges related to his running FTX. He's pled "not guilty" to all charges. On August 11th, his bail was revoked and he was sent to jail. This question resolves to "Yes" if he pleads guilty to any charge(s), either ones he's already been charged with or new ones, before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves to "No". For clarification: a "no contest" / nolo contendere plea will resolve to "yes".
2023-08-14T10:36:02
2025-01-01T08:31:56
2025-01-01T08:31:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TgUcAKASpz510Zw80raL
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the US by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-14T09:29:34
2023-12-31T20:49:49
2023-12-31T20:49:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OZg2IeEiY5tJgOfe9uAR
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 17 than it closed on August 16?
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Previous Close: $28,700.50 Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard. Q3 2023 (July/August/September) Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard: 1st place - Ṁ3,000 2nd place - Ṁ2,000 3rd place - Ṁ1,000 4th place = Ṁ500 5th place - Ṁ250 @SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market. [link preview]
2023-08-14T08:34:30
2023-08-17T16:00:00
2023-08-18T05:16:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-38B8r6IwpoVbRPMbQ7Gd
Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be the highest rated game of all time on OpenCritic at the end of 2023?
At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 is currently listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic: https://opencritic.com/browse/all If it is still the highest rated game (it must be ranked 1 on the linked list) at the end of 2023, this question will resolve YES.
2023-08-14T08:22:09
2024-01-01T04:47:53
2024-01-01T04:47:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PeKhU08bM6UfGT92T4aG
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $450 per share on August 18, 2023?
Weekly prediction on how Nvidia stock will perform https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $450 USD on the closing price of 18 of August, 2023. Any moves above $450 USD during the week will not count towards this market. [link preview]
2023-08-14T07:57:00
2023-08-19T06:28:16
2023-08-19T06:28:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PRbwl1c281cIhqSr7xRk
Will Apple provide health insurance by 2025?
Apple Watch is one of the leading wearable sensing devices on the market. With Apple HealthKit, they have incorporated metrics and alerts that may help people monitor and reduce their risk of a health event. Given that they now have years of health data and have recently incorporated the option of access health records from hospitals, do you think that Apple with provide health insurance by 2025?
2023-08-14T04:48:56
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-29T08:58:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4jv062Xyg10YmaSZV8Ti
Will Barbie gross $1.5 billion worldwide by the end of 2023?
The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $1.18 billion worldwide. That makes it the second film of the year (after the Super Mario Bros Movie) to hit the Billon Dollar mark and Manifold users currently give it a higher than 80% chance of hitting $1.2 billion: @/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-14-billion-worldw Will it keep going and hit $1.5 billion to overtake Avengers: Age of Ultron, Frozen 2 and Top Gun: Maverick to 12th place in the all time highest grossing films list? I will use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source. If the worldwide total hits $1.5 billion (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the year and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO. Weekly progress (worldwide gross as reported by Box Office Mojo each week): 7th August - $1.030 billion 14th August - $1.184 billion 21st August - $1.279 billion 28th August - $1.340 billion 4th September - $1.381 billion 11th September - $1.403 billion 18th September - $1.417 billion 25th September - $1.427 billion 2nd October - $1.433 billion
2023-08-14T03:46:38
2024-01-01T03:21:45
2024-01-01T03:21:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZBheRfS9B8LYE9XPaPFm
Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be one of the top 5 highest rated games of all time on OpenCritic at the end of 2023?
At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 was listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic: https://opencritic.com/browse/all If it is still one of the top 5 highest rated games on OpenCritic (it must be ranked in the top 5 on the linked list) at the end of 2023 in any timezone, this question will resolve YES.
2023-08-14T03:03:09
2024-01-01T03:18:34
2024-01-01T03:18:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YPhenv5Mbu89zqQ2CQwV
Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be the highest rated game of all time on OpenCritic at the end of August 2023?
At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 is currently listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic: https://opencritic.com/browse/all If it is still the highest rated game (it must be ranked 1 on the linked list) at the end of August 2023, this question will resolve YES.
2023-08-14T03:00:35
2023-09-01T03:06:14
2023-09-01T03:06:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jeOIIvjGhHOIJh0o6KXi
Will Javier Milei win the 2023 Argentinian presidential election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-14T02:30:44
2023-11-19T04:59:00
2023-11-19T15:55:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IfGQzJICg05fKTIsz50K
Will Man City win a double or more this season?
Any two or more of: Champions League Premier League FA Cup Carabao Cup
2023-08-14T01:26:41
2024-05-29T16:11:25
2024-05-29T16:11:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-O7nk1SONGBS1JBltXwvx
Will we find out by the end of 2024 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
Could've been using it in 2023 or 2022 or 2021, but the discovery of specifically using LLMs for specifically generating propaganda messages happens before end of 2024 Gary marcus seems to think so.
2023-08-14T00:05:48
2024-06-01T02:34:46
2024-06-01T02:34:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bHpnLmsU6OFvKpYN6YvG
Will Joe Rogan do a podcast with Donald Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-13T22:31:20
2024-10-25T23:11:49
2024-10-25T23:11:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-n5vazeeixBqocWq5HxNb
Will Lebron James retire in the 2024 NBA Season?
He's going to be almost 40 years old, will he still play or wait for his son to join the league?
2023-08-13T20:22:58
2024-08-31T22:59:00
2024-09-30T21:37:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DyE298Rgs5FRCpOFxGOv
Will the rumor of Elon Musk acquiring US Steel for the $X symbol be confirmed before October 2023?
A tweet from Robert Sterling sparked a rumor that Elon Musk may have submitted a bid to acquire US Steel, a company with a $5B market cap, just to acquire the $X stock symbol. Will this rumor be officially confirmed? {resolution_criteria: Official confirmation from Elon Musk, US Steel, or credible news sources} {sources: Robert Sterling's Tweet}
2023-08-13T18:14:17
2023-09-30T20:59:00
2023-10-02T15:59:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mORQBpoDmvdy9XbZsEjD
Will Elon Live Stream himself going to confront Zuckerberg before Aug 20?
Elon states that he will bang on zuckerbergs door.... https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1690854352691314688 Also, If you doubt this will happen but want a less restrictive variant on just live streaming on X outside of SF office: https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-elon-musk-live-stream-from-twi
2023-08-13T17:17:41
2023-08-20T20:59:00
2023-08-20T21:11:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tGofwBVJds4hs1JELdKU
Will Australia beat England during regular time on Wednesday, August 16, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
⚽ Australia W 🏠 vs 🏃 England W 📅 Date: Wednesday, August 16, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 10:00 🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: The home team 🏠 has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: The match ends in a draw The away team 🏃 has more goals (Extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2023-08-13T13:50:48
2023-08-16T04:57:07
2023-08-16T04:57:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gbk4Av7VpKZ5BBcAbUTB
Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023?
Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
2023-08-13T12:07:39
2023-10-31T15:14:05
2023-10-31T15:14:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-seK5g7toEr7AM7wI0Dn8
Do you think Starfield will win Game of the year at the 2023 Game Awards?
Starfield is an upcoming action role-playing game developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks.
2023-08-13T11:11:37
2023-11-14T16:50:24
2023-11-14T16:50:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FKz8SqgBmKOtAO5O6Se8
Will Manchester City beat Sevilla? ⚽ 2023 UEFA Super Cup
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-13T11:09:08
2023-08-16T14:09:43
2023-08-16T14:09:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2GSUU7BaQPvTA6A7AHQt
Will there be more than 1,000 deaths in the Maui wildfires?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-13T10:27:30
2023-09-02T05:45:22
2023-09-02T05:45:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wbMFRwhSKUnfDH2ePcE9
Little Mermaid vs. Tom Cruise: Will Mission Impossible surpass Little Mermaid at the worldwide box office?
Will resolve to YES if Mission Impossible surpasses Little Mermaid here: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/
2023-08-13T10:23:39
2023-12-31T21:51:24
2023-12-31T21:51:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rM4U6SABpftpjJjlB6qV
Will Messi complete the 2023 MLS season without an injury?
To be counted as an injury, would need to be out 1+ MLS season games. Injury can happen outside of regular MLS games. Being out for less than 1 full game will not count.
2023-08-13T09:08:38
2023-09-20T11:03:02
2023-09-20T11:03:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v2jwsxgNPWzqHM7W5bkl
Will Lewandowski be the top goal scorer? ⚽ 2023/24 La Liga
2023/24 La Liga season top goal scorer?
2023-08-13T08:49:42
2024-05-28T03:55:23
2024-05-28T03:55:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-J2UrLoCuimfQylyH6mfw
Will a non-European team make it to the round of 16 at UEFA Euro 2024?
Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Israel, Cyprus and Armenia
2023-08-13T08:49:24
2024-06-26T13:55:57
2024-06-26T13:55:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ebkv4gOWUZ01D7c6TjuU
Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Women's World Cup Final
Women's World Cup Final 8/20
2023-08-13T08:46:38
2023-08-20T04:11:02
2023-08-20T04:11:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5gCwl1DJHkR1fLP3ZXAf
Will each team score? ⚽ Women's World Cup Final
Women's World Cup Final 8/20 Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match? Extra time included, but not penalty shootout.
2023-08-13T08:44:10
2023-08-20T05:06:04
2023-08-20T05:06:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w2djJtTCUu6iUSEnIWf9
Will Wrexham AFC be promoted to League one at the end of the 23/24 Season?
Any route to promotion will still qualify as a Yes
2023-08-13T08:02:29
2024-04-13T09:27:15
2024-04-13T09:27:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6t5wCsdPNcUFLL61F2Fz
Will Travis Scott win a Grammy for Best Rap Album of 2023?
Travis Scott released his 4th Studio Solo Album: Utopia, met so far with a mostly positive reception, with some mixed reviews here and there.
2023-08-13T07:51:00
2024-02-05T15:33:57
2024-02-05T15:33:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DVjUYpL6pwTgZKax1cHs
Will any state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a US presidential candidate [Trump] in 2024?
There are a number of organizations moving to disqualify candidates for participating in the Jan 6th 2021 riot at the US Capitol using section 3 of 14th Amendment to the US Constitution which reads: "No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability." The clause was used to bar members of the Confederacy from elected office after the civil war. There is support for citing this clause to bar candidates from the upcoming presidential election from both liberal and conservative groups. Two conservative law professors who are active members of the Federalist Society have determined that, "If the public record is accurate, the case is not even close. [Donald Trump] is no longer eligible to the office of Presidency, or any other state or federal office covered by the Constitution." Sources: Trump Disqualification Tracker Trump Court Dates https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/illinois-trump-removed-ballot-insurrectionist-ban/index.html https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/299759/20240205133618970_23-719%20Trump%20v%20Anderson%20Petitioner%20Reply%20Brief%20on%20the%20Merits.pdf https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/deadline-legal-blog/trump-supreme-court-colorado-ballot-reply-brief-rcna137338 https://coloradonewsline.com/2024/01/29/supreme-court-briefs-trump-colorado/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-superior-court-primary-ballot-eligibility-supreme-court/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-maine-appeal-secretary-of-state-2024-ballot/ https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/01/04/jena-griswold-colorado-secretary-of-state-trump-supreme-court-ruling-appeal-sot-nn-vpx.cnn https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-keep-him-on-2024-colorado-ballot/ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-20/colorado-ruling-disqualifying-trump-won-t-be-upheld-by-supreme-court?srnd=undefined https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4086124-activists-want-to-disqualify-trump-from-ballot-in-key-states-under-14th-amendment/ https://www.vox.com/23828477/trump-2024-14th-amendment-banned https://www.newsweek.com/trump-barred-office-incite-insurrection-14th-amendment-1812648 https://www.hollandsentinel.com/story/opinion/letters/2021/02/27/states-can-still-ban-trump-ballot-2024/6838732002/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlOksxijRSc&ab_channel=MSNBC [link preview]Resolution Criteria: Resolves YES if any candidates for president are disqualified, excluded from or removed from the ballots of any states in the US Republican Presidential primaries or the US presidential general election in 2024. The candidate must be disqualified on election day. The market will resolve as YES as soon as an election occurs where a candidate has been excluded or disqualified. The market will resolve during the primaries if it happens during the primaries. Resolves NO Nov 5th if disqualification, exclusion or removal from ballots never occurs. Resolves N/A if the candidate(s) in question drop out of the race or remove themselves from the ballot prior to being disqualified. This market focuses on the willingness and/or ability to uphold the 14th Amendment. It is not intended to answer the question "Was Jan 6th an insurrection?" but anyone that moves to disqualify a candidate will need to establish this along with the candidate's participation. Calendar of Notable Dates [Source] 02/08/24 - Colorado 14A: SCOTUS Oral Arguments [Waiting for Decision] 03/04/24 - SCOTUS Colorado 14A Decision Expected 03/05/24 - Super Tuesday: Maine, Massachusetts & Colorado Primary Elections 03/19/24 - Illinois Primary 03/25/24 - NY Election Interference Case Begins 07/30/24 - Trump DC Insurrection Case Begins [Pending Loss on SCOTUS Immunity Appeal] 08/05/24 - GA Case Begins 11/05/24 - US Presidential General Election
2023-08-13T06:35:03
2024-03-06T04:54:27
2024-03-06T04:54:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I29bnrHdAsZcJ8WHOXIW
Will Boeing Starliner Launch with Crewed Mission before July 2024
https://mynorthwest.com/3918175/boeing-starliner-delays-crewed-launch-till-march-2024/ [link preview]
2023-08-13T05:55:11
2024-06-06T21:43:50
2024-06-06T21:43:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-00AsbVSFtJja5RfqONs9
Will rusian lunar module luna-25 land succesfully on target area on Moon?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25 resolution will be en wiki based. Landing is expected 25 Aug 2023.
2023-08-13T03:01:30
2023-08-20T03:10:21
2023-08-20T03:10:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MTig8vOauJz75BQW0AwZ
Will we see a practical implementation of "Thermodynamic Linear Algebra" in the next year?
Looking for a publication that explicitly cites the above publication https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.05660, and implements a proposed method in a physical experiment. Can be a preprint. Follow up question: https://manifold.markets/Thomas42/will-we-see-a-thermodynamic-linear (https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-we-see-a-thermodynamic-linear)[link preview]
2023-08-13T02:38:51
2023-11-10T12:03:56
2023-11-10T12:03:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0QkP05LbdkEAlOq5nOPC
Will destiny reach 703k subscribers in August?
According to https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny other August subscriber markets: @/CourierSix/will-destiny-reach-750k-subscribers @/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-f62d9ac83d07 @/Agh/will-destiny-reach-706k-subscribers @/Agh/will-destiny-reach-703k-subscribers @/Agh/will-destiny-reach-702k-subscribers @/Agh/will-destiny-reach-701k-subscribers @/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-9f29e957e377 @/Agh/will-destiny-reach-700k-subscribers-0afb295d856d @/Agh/will-destiny-reach-696k-subscribers @/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-46a74402b6a9
2023-08-13T01:11:10
2023-09-01T00:00:00
2023-09-01T00:29:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ud43sSgIUr896xDXPrLm
Will Space X go public by 31st December 2024?
Will SpaceX IPO happen ( list and start to trade ) before 31st December 2024? [image]
2023-08-13T00:25:39
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-04T03:19:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-q3HpFD6wet9NY7dyAUKY
Will the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) be successfully attacked once again by 2024?
Famous for having been hit twice (even if the amount of damage was not catastrophic), news reports of the Kerch bridge being attacked are widely shared within Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia may well step up their security of the bridge rendering future attacks harder. If by the end of the year the BBC does not report on another a successful attack (hit) on the bridge, then this question is said to have failed. (This is not a re-post of a previous question; I had unintended ambiguity which meant it had to resolve YES, but this one is definitely about it being hit, however light the damage)
2023-08-13T00:06:29
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T16:30:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-958ReahfbbIt0BOqxmnc
Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.0090 in 2023??
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00900 at any time between August 13, 2022, and the resolution time of December 31, 2022, 23:59, and “No” otherwise. The official resolution source will be https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y [image]
2023-08-12T23:30:27
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T05:23:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S9h66WahZPgrBBdLpS2K
Will Brandon Herrera Win The Republican Primary For TX-23 in 2024?
RUNOFF IS ON MAY 28 2024 Brandon Herrera is a YouTuber running for US House against incumbent Tony Gonzales. This market resolves "Yes" if he wins the republican primary and "No" otherwise, including if he is no longer running.
2023-08-12T21:21:28
2024-05-29T04:26:12
2024-05-29T04:26:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nxhnAhhq2dLpsgJ77a2f
Will Unicode 16.0.0 add at least 10 new emoji?
The number of new emoji has been trending down over time: Unicode 13.0 added 55 emoji Unicode 14.0 added 37 emoji Unicode 15.0 added 20 emoji https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unicode#Versions As of 2023-08-13, there are 7 emoji requests "Under Consideration", with 41 as "Prioritization Pending". https://unicode.org/emoji/emoji-requests.html We will use the same counting method as the official Unicode announcements (only single characters, not ZWJ/skin-tone/gender combinations).
2023-08-12T21:11:47
2024-09-11T07:01:27
2024-09-11T07:01:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gLPdjYyUT3goFXTwsq8c
Will Tesla announce giga factory in India by 2023?
Tesla will be entering India in near future, will it happen in 2023? Any official announcement by tesla about giga India and the location (usually via X (Twitter) ) will be resolved as yes.
2023-08-12T15:43:27
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T13:36:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-E9gussHPn0y2rIVu3R9U
Will Q3 2023 US GDP growth be above 3.5%?
Market will be resolved on October 26th according to the BEA advanced Q3 gdp estimate. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Make sure to check the Atlanta Fed GDP now for semi-official forecasts :) https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Also look at the Philadelphia Fed surveys: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q3-2023
2023-08-12T15:17:19
2023-10-26T08:08:15
2023-10-26T08:08:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ro2gVHHjM6UHZfJiXllv
Will Donald Trump be banned from running for President under the insurrection clause of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
Will Donald Trump be banned from running for President under the insurrection clause of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? Resolves positively if there's a court decision that prevents Donald Trump running, and as a result he is unable to appear on the final ballot in at least one state where he could be competitive, or if he is prevented from taking his oath of office due to the 14th amendment. See also - https://manifold.markets/RyanKidd/will-at-least-one-us-state-print-ba - https://manifold.markets/B/will-trump-sue-to-be-allowed-to-run https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4532751 [link preview]https://www.vox.com/23828477/trump-2024-14th-amendment-banned
2023-08-12T15:17:10
2024-11-09T16:59:04
2024-11-09T16:59:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gpM3yyint2oFf7dRUoUY
Will Luffy and Kizaru Clash/fight in 1091?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-12T14:47:54
2023-09-04T11:35:18
2023-09-04T11:35:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NUHgZ8WTtvqw0x6okFbz
Will e/acc bootstrap an e/acc hedge fund by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-12T14:03:12
2023-12-31T14:00:00
2023-12-31T16:45:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-P6lnyT9wzvqgJcFzNPFJ
Will Spain beat Sweden during regular time on Tuesday, August 15, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
#⚽ Spain W 🏠 vs 🏃 Sweden W 📅 Date: Tuesday, August 15, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 08:00 🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: The home team 🏠 has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: Both teams have an equal number of goals The away team 🏃 has more goals (Extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market is scheduled to close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff. However, this market may resolve BEFORE the closing time once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2023-08-12T13:45:12
2023-08-15T03:27:30
2023-08-15T03:27:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CoxtvVBZuV6Ah3uCSKVa
Will Viktor Orban be prime minister of Hungary at the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-12T12:50:34
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-02-01T23:02:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uIl8y1Jf9mwTWkl21SJf
Will any new country adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by the end of 2024?
except for Salvador and the Central African Republic, which have officially adopted Bitcoin as their legal tender (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/what-country-will-be-next-to-make-b)
2023-08-12T09:59:39
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-01T03:36:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Kg1lLy5AmTzR4KSOrfNm
Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?
On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an agreement to purchase Figma for $20 billion USD. Since then, reports have emerged that the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal. Adobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe no longer lists XD in its product lineup and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store. Resolves YES on the date of a press release or similar evidence (SEC filings) announcing the acquisition has been completed, NO on January 1 2025 or if Adobe or Figma announces that the deal is off.
2023-08-12T07:29:51
2023-12-18T07:05:37
2023-12-18T07:05:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gATY0CJxtry4eSDS3Hlu
Will the price for ChatGPT Plus still be USD $20/month on Aug 12th 2024?
Resolves YES if ChatGPT Plus still exists and the price is still exactly $20/mo, otherwise resolves NO.
2023-08-12T06:41:46
2024-08-12T05:53:07
2024-08-12T05:53:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0SpoHzAZnLi3gxwDMcSq
Will Philadelphia beat Inter Miami? ⚽ 2023 Leagues Cup
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-12T06:13:27
2023-08-15T18:08:12
2023-08-15T18:08:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AUnBNhAKXJeqnoCrXdIk
Will any player be shown a red card in the semi-final stage of the Women's World Cup?
Straight red or yellow-red counts as a YES.
2023-08-12T05:45:25
2023-08-16T04:59:18
2023-08-16T04:59:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QGfNZo6sJPezcF62I2Mk
Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Australia vs England
Women's World Cup
2023-08-12T05:38:29
2023-08-16T04:53:00
2023-08-16T04:53:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wPpMddHGRHGkXkY7D7EC
Will Australia defeat England in the semi-finals of the Women’s World Cup 2023?
Resolves YES if Australia wins their semi-finals match and advances and NO if England do. A draw is not possible. If the match does not occur for a reason other than forfeit the market resolves N/A. Close date is set for after the game but the market may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market.
2023-08-12T05:36:05
2023-08-16T04:54:56
2023-08-16T04:54:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3QwO12pvig3Pli0SMZ7O
Will England beat Australia in the women's world cup semi final?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-12T05:35:38
2023-08-16T06:00:00
2023-08-16T06:36:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ruqli4JlfRE4jjPSOueS
Will there be a coalition between the AfD and the CDU in Germany at least at the municipal level by 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-12T05:02:57
2025-01-01T14:59:00
2025-03-01T08:24:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QPr9D3YGPGXqRxhpIO7K
2023 Poland elections: Will Konfederacja win more than 50 seats to Sejm?
Will resolve to the number of MPs from Konfederacja list after the 2023 elections' results
2023-08-12T04:20:44
2023-10-18T02:51:20
2023-10-18T02:51:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Kn2ElQcGRN8XFrzr7Ept
Will Australia make it to the Women’s football World Cup final?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-12T03:39:52
2023-08-16T05:06:26
2023-08-16T05:06:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y93SSNlnczq4NckCBBM4
Will the SEC approve any Bitcoin spot ETF in 2023?
A Bitcoin ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, would be a financial product that lets people invest in Bitcoin without having to buy and store the actual digital currency. Instead, they'd be buying shares of the ETF, much like they might buy shares of a stock or another fund. A "spot" ETF, specifically, would be based on the current, or "spot," price of Bitcoin, rather than future prices. If the SEC were to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF, it would be a big deal for several reasons. Firstly, it would signal a certain level of trust and acceptance of the bitcoin world by a major regulatory body. Secondly, it could make it easier and potentially more appealing for everyday investors to get involved in Bitcoin, as they wouldn't need to deal with the complexities of owning and storing the cryptocurrency themselves. By today, several financial institutions (BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, and WisdomTree....) have applied to SEC for having their Bitcoin ETF publicly listed on American exchanges. None so far has been accepted. Will it happen in 2023?
2023-08-12T00:06:05
2023-12-30T23:59:00
2024-01-01T21:55:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TWtLiAKD9fk4o1kpJhKk
Will an Indian GM play in the FIDE World Cup 2023 final?
At the start of round 5 there are four Indian players still left: Gukesh D, Vidit, Erigaisi and Praggnanandhaa R. Will at least one of them play in the final match, for the win on the open section of FIDE Wold Cup 2023?
2023-08-11T22:45:25
2023-08-21T12:00:03
2023-08-21T12:00:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4PV3MKfJMpt5vIEXNp6O
Will $TSLA close above $250 this week?
Will resolve as YES if the stock price of Tesla, Inc. is greater than $250.00 at the close of this week, Friday August 18th. Will resolve as no otherwise.
2023-08-11T17:54:12
2023-08-18T13:00:51
2023-08-18T13:00:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EkdbW7llSUk7b5Rjqjdk
Will the U.S. Congress pass, by January 10, 2025, a major bill which regulates AI?
Will the U.S. Congress pass, and the President sign, a bill by January 10, 2025 11:59 PM EST that meets one or more of the criteria for 'Major AI Regulation'? Criteria: - Privacy and Data Rights - Mandates the explicit informed consent of individuals before their personal data is collected or processed by AI systems. - Restrictions on the sale, sharing, or third-party use of personal data processed by AI systems without clear and explicit user consent. - A right to data erasure, allowing individuals to request the deletion of their data from AI systems. - Requirements for timely notification to affected individuals in the event of a data breach or unauthorized access to their personal data within AI systems. - Transparency and Explainability - Requirements for AI systems to provide user-friendly explanations for their decisions, particularly when used in critical sectors like health, finance, or judicial processes. - Obligations for AI systems that emulate humans to reveal to people / users that they are AI, and / or generic disclosure rules for outputs of generative AI. - Obligations for AI developers or deployers to disclose the datasets and methodologies used in training the AI, ensuring external auditors can assess the system's fairness and reliability. - Bias and Fairness - AI developers must implement tools and methodologies to identify and rectify biased decision-making in AI systems. - Periodic third-party audits to ensure AI systems are not perpetuating or amplifying societal biases, with findings made available to the public. - Safety and Reliability - Guidelines or standards for the validation and testing of AI in sectors where human safety is at risk. - Ongoing monitoring requirements for deployed AI systems to track potential drifts from expected behavior, with mandated corrective actions when anomalies are detected. - Targeted bans or other legal restrictions on the use of “high risk” AI systems, e.g. bans on voice cloning or models with a biosafety risk. - Accountability and Liability - Clear definitions of legal responsibilities for AI system malfunctions or erroneous decisions, whether they lie with developers, deployers, or operators. - Amendments to Section 230 of the CDA to clarify that the liability protections for internet platforms do not extend to AI outputs / companies - A framework for affected individuals or entities to seek redress or compensation in the event of harm or damages caused by AI systems. - Human Oversight - Requirements for AI systems, particularly those with autonomous decision-making capabilities, to have human-in-the-loop mechanisms where a human can intervene in real-time decisions. - Obligations for regular review and validation of AI decisions by human experts in sectors deemed critical. - Training Runs and Compute - Disclosure mandates for AI developers to report on the compute resources used during model training, to ensure environmental sustainability and ethical use of computational resources. - Restrictions on training runs that utilize datasets in violation of privacy and data rights or that exceed certain environmental thresholds. - Guidelines on the acceptable sources and methods for data collection for training AI models, ensuring ethical sourcing and data quality.
2023-08-11T17:00:11
2025-01-11T20:59:00
2025-01-27T16:13:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SB1fD4yvedDS36kS2JXX
Will Victor Wembanyama win Rookie of the Year?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-11T16:02:57
2024-04-14T20:59:00
2024-05-06T16:06:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OGe81V99MTvUddyEc0xL
Will the Russian moon lander suffer a catastrophic failure?
Resolves YES if the lander fails before achieving its objective. Landing scheduled for 8/21 currently.
2023-08-11T14:44:24
2023-08-20T06:05:15
2023-08-20T06:05:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DdBeeSt6RcAYbteooNLR
France will beat the All Blacks (New Zealand rugby team) in the opening match of Rugby World Cup 2023
Resolves YES if France beat the All Blacks in the opening match of Rugby World Cup 2023. Otherwise resolves NO
2023-08-11T14:00:23
2023-09-08T14:15:07
2023-09-08T14:15:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-T6tRsPn52mo2uUFMfG5R
Will a new mainline 3D Mario game release in 2024?
[image]
2023-08-11T13:20:47
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-20T10:25:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EQxFTOMtsXimVacqftuN
Will in the Women's World Cup Final play England against Spain?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-11T11:22:52
2023-08-16T05:24:07
2023-08-16T05:24:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2sWuaQx9Y66eWHGadh8B
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas at any point during 2023?
Could happen after the end of official hurricane season and still count.
2023-08-11T11:19:19
2023-12-30T23:10:00
2023-12-31T21:08:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DzwIc9RBnrDQMCB8gpOZ
Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana at any point during 2023?
Could happen after the end of official hurricane season and still count.
2023-08-11T11:18:34
2023-12-31T20:22:57
2023-12-31T20:22:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z0K007d4rEzQcMyDWQQ9
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg schedule a fight by April 1, 2024?
Specific date motivated by this market on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/musk-vs-zuck-apr-1, which resolves 50-50 if no fight is scheduled by April 1, 2024. If no fight is scheduled by April 1, 2024, this Question resolves NO. If the fights happens before April 1, 2024, or the market on Polymarket stays open for longer than April 1 because a fight is scheduled for a later date, this Question resolves YES.
2023-08-11T10:53:14
2024-04-01T14:59:00
2024-04-01T21:02:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-b3XeBD9qJLdhyjnzGBMi
Will the Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg fight happen in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-08-11T10:05:01
2024-12-31T10:03:00
2024-12-31T15:02:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9oxIAI3RkC6rI6qgxcci
Will the fight between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg happen on March 15th, 2024?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1690028306014343168
2023-08-11T09:31:31
2024-03-15T15:59:00
2024-03-15T21:52:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1MQoHSYRgBNH5GT7t97q
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg schedule a fight by August 31, 2023?
Specific date motivated by this market on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/musk-vs-zuck-aug-31, which resolves 50-50 if no fight is scheduled by August 31, 2023. If no fight is scheduled by August 31, 2023, this Question resolves NO. If the market on Polymarket stays open for longer because a fight is scheduled before August 31 (can be scheduled for any later date), this Question resolves YES.
2023-08-11T08:50:24
2023-08-31T23:32:37
2023-08-31T23:32:37
no
MANIFOLD