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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-FcEOdzgnsa1w5w1vRS89
|
Will Elon Musk reach 175M followers on Twitter (X) in 2023?
|
This market will resolve to YES, if in 2023, the number of followers on the official Elon Musk's account (@elonmusk) on Twitter/X hits 175,000,000 or more.
[image][image]
The official number from Twitter will be used to resolve this market, however other sites like socialblade.com will also be helpful.
If it would be questioned, whether a number is achieved because or a bug or a temporary spike shorter than 24 hours, the resolution will wait until the YES conditions are met without a doubt.
|
2023-08-11T07:19:32
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T22:18:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H83iWJ8qDfqxxiMeVGSk
|
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170?
|
Last price: 2023-10-26 $166.89 (171.38 intraday high)
(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) after market creation (2023-08-11) during which the price stays above $190 (YES) or below $170 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:
Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $190
Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $170
Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2).
|
2023-08-11T06:44:36
|
2023-10-27T13:02:42
|
2023-10-27T13:02:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s6GJvhhqAkLO4f2eTRMU
|
Will Australia beat France at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-11T05:32:32
|
2023-08-12T03:30:00
|
2023-08-12T04:40:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NFUS17Y75S3NEZZVrqbW
|
Will Spain defeat Sweden in the semi-finals of the Women’s World Cup 2023?
|
Resolves YES if Spain defeats Sweden, otherwise NO. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match does not take place for a reason other than forfeit.
Close time set for after the game but I may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-11T04:23:05
|
2023-08-15T02:55:39
|
2023-08-15T02:55:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fEhjRsr3reBkmXKkE8iE
|
Will every state vote NO in the upcoming Voice referendum in Australia?
|
This market resolves YES if, in the upcoming referendum on an indigenous Voice to parliament, a majority of voters in all of the six states of Australia vote NO.
This market resolves NO if the majority of voters in at least one state vote YES in the referedum.
The market's close date will be extended if the referendum is delayed, but the market resolves N/A if no such referendum has taken place by the end of 2024.
Only states are included, not territories.
|
2023-08-11T03:18:32
|
2023-10-14T05:07:23
|
2023-10-14T05:07:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gVTAoYS6Ln1Enu0IMdRD
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Burnley be relegated?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be relegated to the Championship.
Will Burnley FC finish in the bottom 3 and be relegated?
Relegation markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-luton-be
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-sheffield
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-wolves-be
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-nottingha
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-everton-b
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-bournemou
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-burnley-b
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-fulham-be
Top 4 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-11T02:46:28
|
2024-05-19T01:36:40
|
2024-05-19T01:36:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ujsar7Nztsj4o2cLyDoZ
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Everton be relegated?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be relegated to the Championship.
Will Everton finish in the bottom 3 and be relegated?
Relegation markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-luton-be
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-sheffield
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-wolves-be
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-nottingha
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-everton-b
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-bournemou
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-burnley-b
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-fulham-be
Top 4 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-11T02:43:34
|
2024-04-29T03:06:21
|
2024-04-29T03:06:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SLY1badgHYVoNKxAYNy2
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Luton be relegated?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be relegated to the Championship.
Will Luton Town FC finish in the bottom 3 and be relegated?
Relegation markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-luton-be
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-sheffield
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-wolves-be
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-nottingha
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-everton-b
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-bournemou
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-burnley-b
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-fulham-be
Top 4 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-11T02:40:41
|
2024-05-19T10:00:00
|
2024-05-19T10:11:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4MU1dj3ipz4uSQTILbXK
|
Will Luna-25 and Chandrayaan-3 collide before the end of August?
|
"Luna-25 is due to lift off on Friday from Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East, just a few weeks after India launched its lunar lander, Chandrayaan-3, from Satish Dhawan Space Centre in the Bay of Bengal.
Both missions will try to land on the Moon’s south pole on, or around, August 23. It’s not yet clear which nation will get to the lunar surface first."
Yes will be awarded regardless of location or circumstance of collision.
Source: https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgwv8d/russia-will-launch-its-first-mission-to-the-moon-in-decades-tomorrow
[link preview]
|
2023-08-11T01:05:53
|
2023-09-01T20:59:00
|
2023-09-02T20:34:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kIlhjSZcDhvStD0L64U2
|
Will the Maui wildfire death toll rise above 100?
|
As of writing this, the toll is 53. This will include only the major wildfire that is happening currently.
|
2023-08-11T00:22:19
|
2023-08-16T08:51:02
|
2023-08-16T08:51:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FyzsoHjTgRbglJ6YpTk1
|
Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 13th September show positive growth?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 BST on Wednesday 13th September.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (July in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution notes:
A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO
This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0d91564112fa
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0599143ef1b0
|
2023-08-10T23:27:04
|
2023-09-12T23:25:23
|
2023-09-12T23:25:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l2oYnvgk59fQRURg7o2h
|
Will at least one US state print ballots without listing Donald Trump due to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
|
This NYTimes article speculates that Donald Trump may be ineligible to run for elected office due to his role in the Jan 6 insurrection. Stephen Calebresi is quoted: "Trump is ineligible to be on the ballot, and each of the 50 state secretaries of state has an obligation to print ballots without his name on them."
From the linked paper:
"Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment forbids holding office by former office holders who then participate in insurrection or rebellion....in particular, it disqualifies former President Donald Trump, and potentially many others, because of their participation in the attempted overthrow of the 2020 presidential election."
|
2023-08-10T23:26:03
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T14:30:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fkh4JkhLILZpcvNg7A6z
|
Will Russia take Avdiivka at least once before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-10T22:31:19
|
2024-02-17T12:55:20
|
2024-02-17T12:55:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6opd0aKMMBTaapvBezD9
|
is Australia going to win the soccer women's world cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-10T22:03:02
|
2023-08-20T06:59:00
|
2023-08-20T07:13:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AEj7NFtj06YN3FUkHETE
|
Will MrBeast have over 200 Million subscribers before 2024? (Youtube Main Channel)
|
Will MrBeast have over 200 Million subscribers before 2024 on this Channel?: https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast
Used Youtube Data if you go on his Channel
250 Million: https://manifold.markets/Base/will-mrbeast-have-over-250-million
[link preview]
|
2023-08-10T21:08:28
|
2023-10-17T06:48:11
|
2023-10-17T06:48:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GUZVVxJIXt4dRIDY8MtM
|
Will a hurricane make landfall as a Category 5 strength on the mainland USA this hurricane season?
|
Must be Cat 5 at time of landfall
Resolves November 30
|
2023-08-10T18:10:22
|
2023-11-30T23:59:00
|
2023-12-15T06:52:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6aN4LVXSS3TxHeDqqnuR
|
Will the 2023 Emmy's be postponed further than their current planned date of Jan. 15th, 2024 date?
|
The 2023 Emmy's have already been postponed from Sept. 18th, 2023, to Jan. 14th, 2024. This is due to the writers and SAG-AFTRA strike. If the date is postponed any further for any reason, then this will count as a yes. This question will be closed as soon as a new date is announced, or on Jan. 15th if there is no postponement.
|
2023-08-10T17:16:59
|
2024-01-15T20:59:00
|
2024-01-15T21:05:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Ij6J2HhvjYUqy76Fdc3
|
Will someone else be richer than Elon Musk at the end of 2023?
|
If Elon Musk loses his title but then regains it before the end of this year, then it will not count as yes. As long as Elon Musk is the richest man in the world going in to 2024 then it count as no.
|
2023-08-10T16:48:12
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T05:48:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gtd8X20H9cciQVPXPFNs
|
Will SCOTUS and/or the Justice Department block the Perdue Pharma (Sackler family) settlement?
|
see https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/08/justices-put-purdue-pharma-bankruptcy-plan-on-hold/
[link preview]
|
2023-08-10T16:23:22
|
2024-06-27T08:21:19
|
2024-06-27T08:21:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cWsrA2Skpm1nD6rWbM26
|
Will a TinyBox ship in 2023?
|
Context: George Hotz recently launched tiny corp. Their product will be the tinybox, a $15k machine capable of "[running] 65B FP16 LLaMA out of the box". Based on WayBack Machine snapshots, the timeline for shipping the tinybox is 2-6 months, starting May 25 2023.
Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the tiny box becomes generally available for purchase in 2023 or if there is credible evidence (as determined by me) that a customer of tiny corp has taken delivery of a tiny box in 2023. This market resolves NO if the YES criteria do not occur by the end of 2023. This market resolves N/A if the specifications or the definition of the tiny box are qualitatively changed (in my opinion, considering comments), but the YES criteria are otherwise met.
I will not bet in this market.
|
2023-08-10T15:51:26
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:17:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-shJvxGyCAQ9joXuuBEPs
|
Will Putin die before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-10T15:14:41
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T09:53:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mBCHbqhuw7nN28qmGMNj
|
Will Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party before 2027?
|
This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CodeandSolder/will-joe-manchin-leave-the-democrat-c68f4d58c622)
|
2023-08-10T15:05:42
|
2024-06-14T15:52:33
|
2024-06-14T15:52:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kX0DL3kpPspvNudTO2Gy
|
Will Donald Trump be the republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-10T14:35:24
|
2024-06-01T20:59:00
|
2024-08-01T11:03:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8jsV9CCriilY2Kitsrib
|
Will gpt4.5 be released by 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-10T12:40:36
|
2024-12-31T10:32:00
|
2025-01-02T16:49:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5U6xmbIqXmpeFnM5ubEW
|
Will there be at least 15 "Dark Brandon" themed items on the Joe Biden campaign store by the end of 2023?
|
Decided by how many items are in the "Dark" section of the Biden campaign store. (https://shop.joebiden.com/dark/) I may bet in this market.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-10T12:16:32
|
2023-11-21T20:53:50
|
2023-11-21T20:53:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yID8FIIXiwGA912fbq1F
|
Will One Of The Top 5 American Newspapers Use The Word "Transbian" By August 2024?
|
For the purposes of this question, the top five american newspapers are:
1. The Wall Street Journal
2. The New York Times
3. USA Today
4. The Washington Post
5. Los Angeles Times
The question will be decided by doing a google search for "transbian" site:newspaper for each of the five newpapers on the day the question closes. If there are any articles where "transbian" appears in the headline or body, the question resolves YES. NO otherwise.
|
2023-08-10T12:13:14
|
2024-08-01T20:59:00
|
2024-08-02T04:05:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Zv3ezS6O1GfvFa7RtVkm
|
Will the U.S. inflation be 3.65% or less in August 2023?
|
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to August 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%.
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.65% or less in August 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.9812415)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)
|
2023-08-10T10:36:09
|
2023-09-13T15:17:28
|
2023-09-13T15:17:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5FRhKP6t4ORoM5cmyaRA
|
Will anyone in a MrBeast video be flown into Space before 2025?
|
A more relaxed constraint question to my previous
https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-mr-beast-release-a-video-where
This one can include other smaller providers like Virgin Galactic, and it wouldn't have to be MrBeast himself who flies into space. Ex, he could choose someone as a 'winner' to send into space.
Tourists are boarding the VSS into space already
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/aug/10/vigin-galactic-space-flight-vss-unity-landing
|
2023-08-10T09:52:37
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T22:46:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h9AylNYu0DvXJltk0P2l
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 11th August than it closed on 10th August?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 11th August than it did on Thursday 10th August?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are some monthly markets for the month of August:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6b2ebca28f2e
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-august-wi
And some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-08-10T09:29:19
|
2023-08-11T08:30:00
|
2023-08-11T08:48:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B
|
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?
|
If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.
IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the defacto military and one of the most prominant political parties in Lebanon.
Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/9/israel-threatens-to-return-lebanon-to-stone-age-in-any-war-with-hezbollah
PSA:
I am commited to provide the best and fairest resolution possible based on my resolution criteria. While I do support creators betting in their own markets, considering the ongoing conflict and potential ambiguity of the situation in Israel, I have chosen to sell off my position. As I mentioned multiple times, my resolution will be unbiased and based on the facts.
I have donated 10k M to a charity(https://manifold.markets/charity/against-malaria-foundation) to show my commitment to a fair resolution. I encourage you to do the same.
Enjoy the trades.
|
2023-08-10T06:42:05
|
2023-12-31T19:05:32
|
2023-12-31T19:05:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CtHGyIml4BmRTzQvwjlv
|
Will September 2023 be the hottest September on record?
|
As per NOAA's global report for September, will September 2023 be the hotest recorded September? Note that this will close at the end of the month, but will only resolve once the results are offically posted.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
[link preview]
|
2023-08-10T05:47:35
|
2023-09-30T20:59:00
|
2023-10-13T16:49:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7
|
Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?
|
See article for context. If a reputable source replicate the observations and confirms that the standard model of gravity breaks down before the end of the year this will resolve as a yes.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/ak3jwb/unbelievable-astronomer-claims-direct-evidence-of-gravity-breaking-down
[link preview]
|
2023-08-10T04:38:28
|
2023-09-01T08:53:30
|
2023-09-01T08:53:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XIOqRKbJlQtp8jGVkzot
|
Will Worldcoin ($WLD) be below $1 before the end of Aug 23?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-10T03:13:18
|
2023-08-31T15:59:00
|
2023-08-31T16:02:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DxcmICnEyKELmMlxXO85
|
Will Elon Musk blame his doctor/Canadian girlfriend/mother for declining to fight Mark Zuckerberg in 2023?
|
If Musk doesn't decline the fight the market will resolve to NO.
If he postpones the decision past 2023 it will also resolve to NO.
It will only resolve to YES if he declines the fight in 2023 with blaming it on his doctor etc. Example: he tweets "I have to decline the fight because my doctor strongly advises against it, I would def do it otherwise 🤣"
Will the Musketeer retreat from the fight as "a good will gesture"?
[image]
|
2023-08-10T02:09:30
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:57:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hOK031QusrqBm6tIX47s
|
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play at UEFA Euro 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Cristiano Ronaldo plays for any amount of time in any match of the upcoming UEFA Euro 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2023-08-10T01:32:14
|
2024-06-18T12:00:00
|
2024-06-18T12:01:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0kJflPvg7RHfqspR49EG
|
Will Cruise and Waymo be approved to charge for rides across San Francisco 24/7 by 2023-08-10?
|
According to this article, a government approval has been delayed. If the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approves it by August 10, then this market resolves to yes. If it is delayed or voted down, then the market resolves to no.
https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/10/cruise-and-waymos-24-7-san-francisco-robotaxi-operations-delayed-by-state-regulator/
[link preview]
|
2023-08-09T22:45:47
|
2023-08-10T23:59:00
|
2023-08-13T14:57:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CgEq6P6QP5dSUa6vdpeR
|
Will Tesla deliver more than 1,000 new Cyber Trucks by the end of Q4, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T20:21:56
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:23:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uTmiKne7xHlzadhPFzlA
|
Will 'Baldur's Gate 3' win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldur%27s_Gate_3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards
Baldur's Gate markets: https://manifold.markets/group/baldurs-gate
|
2023-08-09T19:26:34
|
2023-12-07T20:02:54
|
2023-12-07T20:02:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DxDb36ftEtrkG8O1Oi4X
|
Will 'Baldur's Gate 3' win any awards at The Game Awards 2023?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldur%27s_Gate_3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards
Baldur's Gate markets: https://manifold.markets/group/baldurs-gate
|
2023-08-09T19:25:50
|
2023-12-07T19:44:09
|
2023-12-07T19:44:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NeLHUjD3PExSOQUyIYnD
|
Will England win against Colombia on Saturday, August 12, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
|
⚽ England W vs Colombia W
📅 Date: Saturday, August 12, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 10:30
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw at the end of the regular time.
🕐 Market Closing Time: The market is set to close 180 minutes after the match starts. However, please be aware that an automated script is checking the API continuously, and the market may resolve immediately once the match is reported as finished by the API, regardless of the closing time
🔎 To make better bets you can search for the match on Google
|
2023-08-09T18:59:57
|
2023-08-12T05:49:10
|
2023-08-12T05:49:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XdVsBDRdN5ZNGGlikq7S
|
Will Australia win against France on Saturday, August 12, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
|
⚽ Australia W vs France W
📅 Date: Saturday, August 12, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 07:00
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw at the end of the regular time.
🕐 Market Closing Time: The market is set to close 180 minutes after the match starts. However, please be aware that an automated script is checking the API continuously, and the market may resolve immediately once the match is reported as finished by the API, regardless of the closing time
🔎 To make better bets you can search for the match on Google
|
2023-08-09T18:59:52
|
2023-08-12T03:00:00
|
2023-08-12T03:42:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WxmgQLOxekvAkPTEiEKo
|
Will Taylor Swift announce 1989 (Taylor's Version) tonight?
|
https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/taylor-swift-1989-taylors-version-eras-tour-conspiracy
[link preview](https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/will-taylor-swift-release-1989-tayl)General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-08-09T17:36:52
|
2023-08-09T23:11:50
|
2023-08-09T23:11:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DtlCQORyhCKig6doJK1P
|
Will the rapper Lil Tay's reported death be revealed to be fake by the end of the week
|
Rapper Lil Tay has been reported dead at 14 in several outlets. In my sole opinion, will Lil Tay's death be revealed to be faked by the 1st of the year, 2024?
https://ew.com/celebrity/lil-tay-the-sensation-dies-at/
[link preview]
|
2023-08-09T15:42:42
|
2023-08-16T15:59:00
|
2023-08-18T14:42:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EkjydGxS8XTWBFlhF3ut
|
Will Joe Biden break his hip while president?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T14:52:41
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-23T10:36:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hNWDiWp6ecld61IPNPIZ
|
Will Joe Biden test positive for Covid by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T14:50:01
|
2023-12-31T20:50:44
|
2023-12-31T20:50:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XuK3St7xBwM0w6UzmDYX
|
Will Shein IPO in 2024?
|
Definition of Outcome: The market will resolve as “Yes” if Shein successfully completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO) and its shares are first available for public trading on any recognized stock exchange within the calendar year 2024, Eastern Time (ET).
Verification Sources: The outcome will be determined based on reports from one or more of the following trusted sources:
Major financial news outlets: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters.
The official website or press release page of the stock exchange where Shein is listing.
Shein's official website or press releases.
Official regulatory filings related to Shein's IPO.
Tiebreakers and Ambiguities:
In case of discrepancies between the aforementioned sources, the majority consensus among them will be taken as the final verdict.
If there is an equal split in sources (e.g., two sources state one date and two sources state another), the regulatory filing or the official announcement from Shein will take precedence.
All dates will be verified based on Eastern Time (ET), regardless of the location of the IPO or the primary location of the news source.
Special Scenarios:
If Shein's IPO is announced for 2024 but gets postponed to a later year, the market will resolve as "No."
If Shein announces a merger with another company resulting in an indirect public listing, this will not count as an IPO, and the market will resolve as "No."
Direct listings, if Shein opts for this route, will be considered as an IPO for the purpose of this market.
Resolution Timeframe: The market will resolve within seven days after December 31, 2024, ET. This provides ample time to verify the IPO status of Shein and ensures there are no last-minute changes or announcements in the final days of 2024.
|
2023-08-09T13:36:57
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-19T16:28:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZT9Y8xMLyyFOIYgGzF0k
|
Will Shein IPO in 2023?
|
Definition of Outcome: The market will resolve as “Yes” if Shein successfully completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO) and its shares are first available for public trading on any recognized stock exchange within the calendar year 2023, Eastern Time (ET).
Verification Sources: The outcome will be determined based on reports from one or more of the following trusted sources:
Major financial news outlets: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters.
The official website or press release page of the stock exchange where Shein is listing.
Shein's official website or press releases.
Official regulatory filings related to Shein's IPO.
Tiebreakers and Ambiguities:
In case of discrepancies between the aforementioned sources, the majority consensus among them will be taken as the final verdict.
If there is an equal split in sources (e.g., two sources state one date and two sources state another), the regulatory filing or the official announcement from Shein will take precedence.
All dates will be verified based on Eastern Time (ET), regardless of the location of the IPO or the primary location of the news source.
Special Scenarios:
If Shein's IPO is announced for 2023 but gets postponed to a later year, the market will resolve as "No."
If Shein announces a merger with another company resulting in an indirect public listing, this will not count as an IPO, and the market will resolve as "No."
Direct listings, if Shein opts for this route, will be considered as an IPO for the purpose of this market.
Resolution Timeframe: The market will resolve within seven days after December 31, 2023, ET. This provides ample time to verify the IPO status of Shein and ensures there are no last-minute changes or announcements in the final days of 2023.
|
2023-08-09T13:35:32
|
2023-12-31T18:59:00
|
2024-01-01T07:51:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BMPiPtDMMwcih6OKHCOD
|
Will GitHub be down on August 11th 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-11 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
#github
[link preview]
|
2023-08-09T13:28:03
|
2023-08-11T14:16:06
|
2023-08-11T14:16:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4cLFijVQ3RXV1Orxc3WJ
|
Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by the end of 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if WeWork announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.
The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels (e.g. https://www.wework.com/newsroom, etc.), as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents WeWork.
|
2023-08-09T13:13:22
|
2023-11-07T00:48:13
|
2023-11-07T00:48:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bNZa83Oc9FsncnTkELpK
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 10 than it closed on August 9?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
|
2023-08-09T12:28:41
|
2023-08-10T11:00:00
|
2023-08-10T13:20:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zxTamg6q5TpxDqM1qb0D
|
Will a release date for GPT5 be announced officially in 2023?
|
OpenAI has filed an application for the trademark “GPT-5” and begun a new web scraping process, but will they give us a release date this year?
|
2023-08-09T11:22:44
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-03T09:22:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CR38S1mOeaLe4bVYrmYX
|
Will there be a government shut down this year?
|
Will the US government officially shut down before the end of 2023?
|
2023-08-09T10:48:22
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:20:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fwVZFooHYhplzBuSjpgg
|
Will future tropical storm Emily develop by August 31?
|
The next named tropical storm to develop in the Atlantic will be named Emily.
Resolves according to classification by the National Hurricane Center.
|
2023-08-09T10:37:31
|
2023-08-20T08:15:35
|
2023-08-20T08:15:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XdZaR7TAxqaMO8ohi0VZ
|
Will 80% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 23rd August?
|
On 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.
The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up - we originally thought that this might happen within a few days but the rate of reopening slowed down futher and further and it was eventually hit on 3rd July.
Now we're looking at how long it will take for 80% of the subreddits to come back.
@/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
@/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1
@/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
@/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-ac21eed14be6
How much longer will it take to hit 80%?
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "1817/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 20.6%. If this figure ticks below 20%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Wednesday 23rd August July at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
|
2023-08-09T10:01:09
|
2023-08-18T00:58:22
|
2023-08-18T00:58:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6flDANjmKJ7Q9nfd7y03
|
Will Messi become Inter Miami's all-time top goalscorer by May 2024?
|
>29 goals before May 1st
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Inter_Miami_CF_records_and_statistics#Top_goalscorers
|
2023-08-09T09:37:21
|
2024-04-27T20:22:01
|
2024-04-27T20:22:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zMr1xgtxntR5ARFPeLT6
|
Will Real Madrid win the 2023/24 La Liga?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T09:16:14
|
2024-05-05T05:46:55
|
2024-05-05T05:46:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NuwdlEJeVUgEMkhmLwvX
|
Will Barcelona win the 2023/24 La Liga?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T09:15:01
|
2024-05-05T05:43:47
|
2024-05-05T05:43:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lpPVwnSOrHhzLn0jMMEG
|
Will Inter Miami make it to the 2023 Leagues Cup final?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T08:52:57
|
2023-08-15T18:08:51
|
2023-08-15T18:08:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0wdvKHfHXqWPB2nIetBj
|
Will Charlotte FC beat Inter Miami? ⚽ 2023 Leagues Cup
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T08:52:03
|
2023-08-11T19:30:00
|
2023-08-12T04:41:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vg3WmUzxEMA8yVWdhzZG
|
Will Messi score 2 or more goals against Charlotte FC? ⚽ 2023 Leagues Cup
|
Regular time and extra time only.
|
2023-08-09T08:42:32
|
2023-08-11T19:30:00
|
2023-08-13T11:14:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7LxcLPJKi3jA86XghgQE
|
Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T06:33:40
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-04T17:57:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qU5LploybZ0PU4aMUz8N
|
Will 3 or more goals be scored in the Women's World Cup final?
|
Only goals scored during regular time and extra time count, not penalty shootout.
|
2023-08-09T06:22:04
|
2023-08-20T05:04:13
|
2023-08-20T05:04:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IvYcPN4RH4qY8TpoWyA3
|
Will the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel reach a historic agreement within one year?
|
Such an agreement must include the following:
-Saudi Arabia recognises Israel
-Israel makes concessions to Palestinians
-The US offers Saudi Arabia security guarantees
-The US offers Saudi Arabia civilian nuclear aid
As reported by WSJ
If a historic agreement is reached that fulfills the spirit of this question but not the exact criteria, I will resolve to 50%
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-saudi-arabia-agree-to-broad-terms-for-israel-normalization-ac6d549c?st=c1p0pbpoei677gl&reflink=article_copyURL_share
[link preview]
|
2023-08-09T06:13:23
|
2024-08-10T08:59:00
|
2024-08-12T16:32:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B2AaHlIAUaUJ5N5mkRZt
|
Will Yann LeCun insult a respected AI researcher on Twitter (X) in 2023?
|
Resolves yes if Yann LeCun insults a respected AI researcher on Twitter (X) in 2023 but after creation of this market.
|
2023-08-09T06:07:35
|
2023-11-01T11:05:39
|
2023-11-01T11:05:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U9D8wE2kG0tKGEVcKj41
|
Will Liverpool win the 2023/24 Premier League?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T06:01:56
|
2024-05-17T06:54:40
|
2024-05-17T06:54:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oT4h9KwapfRFBdRccnBx
|
Will Manchester City win the 2023/24 Premier League?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T06:01:18
|
2024-05-19T09:59:53
|
2024-05-19T09:59:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yVM8lZKKVFvdfRi7FiJA
|
Will Arsenal win the 2023/24 Premier League?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T05:59:39
|
2024-05-19T10:00:13
|
2024-05-19T10:00:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pRLjlpL6zQX4flKxY7wz
|
Will Biden win the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T05:51:05
|
2024-09-03T20:34:16
|
2024-09-03T20:34:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LncdItiobNq9P0gzmeKw
|
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2024?
|
Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.
|
2023-08-09T04:48:44
|
2024-08-13T12:49:57
|
2024-08-13T12:49:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-afmliPC1uSwyuuMbSg1n
|
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2023 FIDE World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-09T04:39:37
|
2023-08-24T04:40:45
|
2023-08-24T04:40:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6yIwt8vy8OO7KFiUoydL
|
Will GitHub be down on August 10th 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-10 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-09T00:52:06
|
2023-08-10T10:41:26
|
2023-08-10T10:41:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tW8UPod6h6uwvttCsLvs
|
Will the Labour Party win 400 or more seats in the next UK general election?
|
Resolves YES if the Labour Party win 400 or more parliamentary seats in the next UK general election.
|
2023-08-08T23:49:52
|
2024-07-16T13:36:21
|
2024-07-16T13:36:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-63car1gh8C6CWQf4guqN
|
Will Twitter.com redirect to X.com by EOY?
|
Currently, X.com redirects to Twitter.com, though all of the branding on the site is "X". Will this be reversed, and Twitter.com redirect to X.com by EOY?
Resolves YES if at any point Twitter.com redirects to X.com on or before Dec 31, 2023, even if this decision is later reversed.
|
2023-08-08T21:22:55
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:02:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GHuczJsraJ7eJVfr0DMa
|
Will the NASDAQ Composite reach above 14400 by the end of the calendar year
|
This will be a new 1 year high (as of today's date being 9th August 2023) for the NASDAQ Composite.
At any point where the NASDAQ Composite goes above 14400 in the 2023 Calendar year from this point, the question will resolve YES.
Any other result under 14400 will resolve NO on the 1st of January 2024.
I will not bet in this market.
|
2023-08-08T18:43:59
|
2023-11-29T12:33:34
|
2023-11-29T12:33:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L0Zff4QzjWnIe1VzztA2
|
Will Tesla drop below 220 USD by October?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-08T17:40:38
|
2023-10-20T03:30:59
|
2023-10-20T03:30:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OsGBSa24swM2W2QnJIdq
|
Will APL Materials publish the research on LK-99 ?
|
Lee Seok-bae, CEO of the Quantum Energy Institute, is in the process of publishing his thesis in 'APL Materials', an academic journal published by the American Physical Society .
Will the LK-99 article pass peer review and be published by APL Materials before the end of the year ?
The article should be published in the APL website https://pubs.aip.org/aip/apm
If the article is retracted later that still counts as YES as long as it was published before 2024.
In particular, If the article is published but does not claim LK-99 to be superconductive or claims it to not be superconductive, that still counts as YES
|
2023-08-08T17:40:20
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00
|
2024-01-01T05:58:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RCDfT0UFBdLWSviYqtXI
|
Will North Korea launch a missile test by August 31?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile test between August 8, 7 30 PM ET and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
|
2023-08-08T17:34:01
|
2023-08-28T06:05:23
|
2023-08-28T06:05:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M90geshTKB3JTgMAowHa
|
Will there be a US Ethereum ETF approved in 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Ethereum-based futures ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
|
2023-08-08T17:32:18
|
2023-10-05T07:58:45
|
2023-10-05T07:58:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LvlQPsLcQ3J9sFWqzVTs
|
Will Japan win against Sweden on Friday, August 11, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
|
⚽ Japan W vs Sweden W
📅 Date: Friday, August 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 07:30
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw. Please note that penalties and extra time are considered in determining the outcome
🕐 Market Closing Time: The market is set to close 180 minutes after the match starts. However, please be aware that an automated script is checking the API continuously, and the market may resolve immediately once the match is reported as finished by the API, regardless of the closing time
🔎 To make better bets you can search for the match on Google
|
2023-08-08T16:05:51
|
2023-08-11T03:07:10
|
2023-08-11T03:07:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I3lBqR5YtWAVjV1Z6nrt
|
Aaron Peskin runs for Mayor of San Francisco
|
This market resolves to YES if Aaron Peskin, currently District 3 Supervisor, files paperwork with the SF Department of Elections to run for Mayor by the deadline (July 2024). Any subsequent withdrawals from the election will not affect the outcome of this market.
|
2023-08-08T15:26:14
|
2024-07-25T23:00:15
|
2024-07-25T23:00:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AVN6m4iitRbpmGagbjxm
|
Will Signal release phone number privacy AND usernames by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if phone number privacy AND Signal usernames are in a public release version of the Signal app on iOS OR Android. This means that one can hide phone numbers from people they are talking to, and people can add you via a username.
Signal may still require a phone number to sign up, and require a user to opt in to these features after signup.
As of this writing, these are in testing on the server and people can turn on the flags by building custom clients.
Related:
https://signal.miraheze.org/wiki/Usernames#:~:text=%22Usernames%20%5B...%5D,the%20server%20at%20any%20point.
|
2023-08-08T13:57:47
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T01:42:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GVwJBOztRIYzUTIKpP4n
|
Will bitcoin be worth over $150,000 by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-08T13:53:35
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-05T13:31:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WxsT0nUrvFCVVrtQEQB9
|
Will the Guardian publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors by the end of August?
|
Since there was so much excitement around LK-99 on Manifold and in a lot of other online spaces, I was surprised to see the lack of mainstream media coverage of the alleged discovery and the attempts at replication.
I created these three markets on whether there would be coverage from the Economist, the BBC and the Guardian within a week. After all trading at around 90%, the Economist published an article and the other two look like they're going to resolve to NO:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bbc-news-site-publish-an-a
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl
Will the Guardian publish an article on their website about LK-99 or the purported discovery of a room-temperature superconductor by the end of the month?
Resolution criterea:
I will count any article which has been published on guardian.co.uk by 22:00 BST on Thursday 31st August
Anything that's published in the print editions of the Guardian or the Observer will count if it is also published at any URL starting with guardian.co.uk (this covers almost all content published in the print editions - but it is the published date on the website which counts for this market)
The primary subject of the article must be the potential discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, the specific research and discussion around LK-99 or the reaction to it. An article debunking or dismissing the research or an article about how the whole thing has been a hoax would count, but an article which is primarily about something else but which has a passing mention of LK-99 or superconductors in general would not.
Hopefully there won't be any ambiguity (either they publish an article which is primarily about this subject or they don't), but just in case there is some level of subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.
|
2023-08-08T13:42:31
|
2023-08-31T14:00:00
|
2023-08-31T14:13:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GSWArZeq3QdbO4lWOW9d
|
Will the BBC News site publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors by the end of August?
|
Since there was so much excitement around LK-99 on Manifold and in a lot of other online spaces, I was surprised to see the lack of mainstream media coverage of the alleged discovery and the attempts at replication.
I created these three markets on whether there would be coverage from the Economist, the BBC and the Guardian within a week. After all trading at around 90%, the Economist published an article and the other two look like they're going to resolve to NO:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bbc-news-site-publish-an-a
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl
Will the BBC publish an article on the BBC News website about LK-99 or the purported discovery of a room-temperature superconductor by the end of the month?
Resolution criterea:
I will count any article which has been published on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news by 22:00 BST on Thursday 31st August
The article must be accessible on a URL which begins with https://www.bbc.co.uk/news - something which is published on another BBC site or product will not count unless some version of it appears on the news site itself
The primary subject of the article must be the potential discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, the specific research and discussion around LK-99 or the reaction to it. An article debunking or dismissing the research or an article about how the whole thing has been a hoax would count, but an article which is primarily about something else but which has a passing mention of LK-99 or superconductors in general would not.
Hopefully there won't be any ambiguity (either they publish an article which is primarily about this subject or they don't), but just in case there is some level of subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.
|
2023-08-08T13:38:25
|
2023-08-31T14:00:00
|
2023-08-31T14:14:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZpApIsXGCCjdq0ljDoKT
|
Will the New York Times Magazine kill their variety puzzle page by end of 2024? [M$1000 subsidy]
|
Their variety puzzle page (currently with a Spelling Bee, two word puzzles, and a grid logic puzzle; usually on the page before the crossword) has always been somewhat niche, but has existed since like 2016. In March 2023, they removed it from their website (even though it was literally just pdfs that they'd already made for the print version) and even took down the archive - though they still pay constructors. This Sunday, they misprinted a number in one of the puzzles which resulted in the puzzle being unsolvable.
This puzzle page was a longtime inspiration to me, and I've also been a constructor for it. When corresponding with the Times about my puzzles, I got the sense that Will Shortz alone is making this page happen. This makes me worry that other members of the puzzle team want to kill the page (especially since they wouldn't have to pay constructors for it anymore). Another risk is if Will Shortz retires.
Will the New York Times make it clear that this magazine page is being killed by end of 2024? Since this topic is dear to my heart, I'm subsiding this market with M$1000.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-08-08T13:29:48
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:12:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4V3LxlE3o3VAmfpR6QiF
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 9 than it closed on August 8?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
|
2023-08-08T12:56:59
|
2023-08-09T11:00:00
|
2023-08-09T13:09:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0S2LV5tu4cGb9Y7zFEEx
|
"Is the stock market collapse beginning?"
|
This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
[image]
|
2023-08-08T12:05:58
|
2024-08-09T14:59:00
|
2024-08-09T15:08:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dC9qpsW7ktfksftI1mdP
|
Will Russia withdraw all its forces and mercenary groups from Donetsk and Luhansk before July 1st 2024?
|
The question is about cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, not the regions / "Oblast".
Resolution:
- resolves to YES immediately once an official order to withdraw Russian troops / army / forces from Donetsk AND Luhansk is confirmed by at least 5 reputable sources (please, add sources in comments in this case)
OR
- resolves to YES immediately once Ukraine claim to free Luhansk AND Donetsk is confirmed by at leaset 5 reputable sources (please, add sources in comments), with clear video evidence.
Otherwise resolves to NO on 1st of July 2024.
|
2023-08-08T10:44:45
|
2024-06-30T13:44:08
|
2024-06-30T13:44:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BVFGQBehvqtmnyA83WJR
|
Will Ted Cruz be the next Republican elected President?
|
I think he is probably the most talented Republican politician and were it not for Trump he would almost certainly be nearing the end of his second term today. He currently faces reelection in Texas, which gives him incredible cover to raise money in plain site as a Senate candidate which he could at any moment pivot to a presidential campaign. I bet he would instantly end the campaigns of everyone other than Trump and turn it into a 55/45 brawl. The more I think about this the more obvious it becomes. Cruz could wage war to destroy MAGA and in doing so win over many of the independents that currently are committed to unenthusiastically voting for great grandpa Biden.
That is just the case for how he could do it today. If he waits four years he might have the entire party begging him to be the leader because, like I said, he is their most politically talented member.
If I am Ted Cruz I see two really old and weak men with their backs turned totally distracted and vulnerable. Ted Cruz is a killer if there is such a thing in politics today. He will never have an opportunity like this again.
This market resolves when the next Republican is elected president. YES if is Cruz. No if someone else.
|
2023-08-08T09:43:13
|
2024-11-21T11:40:43
|
2024-11-21T11:40:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zzQhn6kzoqWUA6IuU1zz
|
Will SpaceX Starship reach orbit at least 2 times in 2024?
|
Will SpaceX Starship successfully reach orbit at least 2 times before end of 2024?
|
2023-08-08T09:07:33
|
2024-10-22T21:55:49
|
2024-10-24T06:03:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QZHPWWLk6AQkp7hfja7R
|
Will Simon Case (the UK Cabinet Secretary) lose his job before the end of 2024?
|
Resolved No if Simon Case is still the UK's Cabinet Secretary on 1 Jan 2025.
|
2023-08-08T08:51:28
|
2024-12-16T08:40:03
|
2024-12-16T08:40:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cjyKy07rRJPqZAu8SuXR
|
Will Each Team Score? ⚽ Australia vs France
|
Women's World Cup
8/12 Match
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
Extra time included, but not penalty shootout.
|
2023-08-08T07:02:09
|
2023-08-12T04:42:18
|
2023-08-12T04:42:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gylArDEcSi5Ierza4Npy
|
Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Australia vs France
|
Women's World Cup - Quarter-finals
|
2023-08-08T06:57:24
|
2023-08-12T03:00:00
|
2023-08-12T04:42:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J360ziepkMZsMDs5S1jc
|
Will bitcoin price be greater than $100,000 USD on Jan 1 2025
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-08T06:35:43
|
2025-01-02T12:13:39
|
2025-01-02T12:13:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PfEI6pclVYEydzjEUN9Z
|
Will England defeat Colombia in their quarter-finals match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if England wins their quarter-final match and advances and NO if Colombia do. A draw is not possible. If the match does not occur for a reason other than forfeit the market resolves N/A.
Close date is set for after the game but the market may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-08T05:40:19
|
2023-08-12T05:33:54
|
2023-08-12T05:33:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FfqTGPKyfofaZpu1tDUd
|
Tesla licenses FSD tech to another automaker by the end of 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-08T05:40:14
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2025-01-05T22:31:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G6wahEJyxHBWRfTjZrOK
|
Will the Time Person of the Year 2023 be American?
|
Will resolve YES if all people named Time Person of the Year 2023 hold American citizenship.
Will resolve NO if all people named Time Person of the Year 2023 do not hold American citizenship.
Will resolve N/A if people both with and without American citizenship are named or if no people are named.
Those being named explicitly on the cover take precedence over who they represent, so for example 2002 would result in a YES. They haven't done this in recent years but still clarifying this just in case.
Some examples:
Sam Altman -> YES
Sam Altman representing Young Entrepeneurs -> YES
Sam Altman and ChatGPT -> YES
Xi Jinping -> NO
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin -> NO
Xi Jinping and Joe Biden -> N/A
Young Entrepeneurs -> N/A
Iran Protesters -> N/A
ChatGPT -> N/A
Artificial Intelligence -> N/A
|
2023-08-08T05:18:04
|
2023-12-06T06:00:00
|
2023-12-06T06:27:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jM87vSjFEILozAlc25xv
|
Will Ukraine retake Bakhmut by the end of 2023?
|
The Battle of Bakhmut is the longest one of the Ukraine-Russia war, running from november 2022 to now.
In may of 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were pushed out of the city. Following the claimed victory, the Wagner group retreated from the city and was replaced by regular Russian troops.
Since then, the Ukrainian armed forces have resumed offensives around Bakhmut, making limited progress in the outlying villages as part of a potential encirclement, notably re-taking Kishchiivka on 23/07/2023.
This market will resolve YES if the AFU holds the Bakhmut City Building (48.58917818706879, 38.00052084708632) for at least a 24 hour period before the end of the year.
|
2023-08-08T02:24:13
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:09:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SMufrSX2uXwiriwjyfMA
|
Will Twitter/X.com pay for anyone's legal bills related to what they said on the platform, before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-08T01:14:46
|
2023-11-16T18:18:08
|
2023-11-16T18:18:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b2r7oJBPQ0JA2KQF27F4
|
If Ohio Issue 1 doesn't pass, will the Ohio Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative pass?
|
Currently, the Ohio Constitution can be amended by ballot measures that receive a majority of the vote. Ohio Issue 1 would limit the threshold for an amendment to the Ohio Constitution, as well as adding a few restrictions to the signature collection process. The vote on Issue 1 takes place on August 8, while the Reproductive Decisions amendment will go to a vote on November 7. As a result, the results of Issue 1 will determine whether the threshold for the Reproductive Decisions amendment is a bare majority, or 60%. The new rules on signature collections would not affect it, since it already has enough signatures to appear on the ballot.
This market resolves N/A if Ohio Issue 1 is in effect when the vote for the Ohio Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative. Otherwise, it resolves the same as @/JosephNoonan/will-the-ohio-right-to-make-reprodu.
See also @/lisamarsh/will-ohio-issue-1-60-vote-requireme and @/JosephNoonan/if-ohio-issue-1-passes-will-the-ohi.
|
2023-08-07T23:14:39
|
2023-11-07T18:17:27
|
2023-11-07T18:17:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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