id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-FcEOdzgnsa1w5w1vRS89 | Will Elon Musk reach 175M followers on Twitter (X) in 2023? | This market will resolve to YES, if in 2023, the number of followers on the official Elon Musk's account (@elonmusk) on Twitter/X hits 175,000,000 or more.
[image][image]
The official number from Twitter will be used to resolve this market, however other sites like socialblade.com will also be helpful.
If it would be... | 2023-08-11T07:19:32 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T22:18:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-H83iWJ8qDfqxxiMeVGSk | Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170? | Last price: 2023-10-26 $166.89 (171.38 intraday high)
(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) after market creation (2023-08-11) during which the price stays above $190 (YES) or below $170 (NO) for the whole session. In other wo... | 2023-08-11T06:44:36 | 2023-10-27T13:02:42 | 2023-10-27T13:02:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s6GJvhhqAkLO4f2eTRMU | Will Australia beat France at the Women's World Cup? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-11T05:32:32 | 2023-08-12T03:30:00 | 2023-08-12T04:40:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NFUS17Y75S3NEZZVrqbW | Will Spain defeat Sweden in the semi-finals of the Women’s World Cup 2023? | Resolves YES if Spain defeats Sweden, otherwise NO. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match does not take place for a reason other than forfeit.
Close time set for after the game but I may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market. | 2023-08-11T04:23:05 | 2023-08-15T02:55:39 | 2023-08-15T02:55:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fEhjRsr3reBkmXKkE8iE | Will every state vote NO in the upcoming Voice referendum in Australia? | This market resolves YES if, in the upcoming referendum on an indigenous Voice to parliament, a majority of voters in all of the six states of Australia vote NO.
This market resolves NO if the majority of voters in at least one state vote YES in the referedum.
The market's close date will be extended if the referendu... | 2023-08-11T03:18:32 | 2023-10-14T05:07:23 | 2023-10-14T05:07:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gVTAoYS6Ln1Enu0IMdRD | Premier League 2023/4 - Will Burnley be relegated? | The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be r... | 2023-08-11T02:46:28 | 2024-05-19T01:36:40 | 2024-05-19T01:36:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ujsar7Nztsj4o2cLyDoZ | Premier League 2023/4 - Will Everton be relegated? | The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be r... | 2023-08-11T02:43:34 | 2024-04-29T03:06:21 | 2024-04-29T03:06:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SLY1badgHYVoNKxAYNy2 | Premier League 2023/4 - Will Luton be relegated? | The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be r... | 2023-08-11T02:40:41 | 2024-05-19T10:00:00 | 2024-05-19T10:11:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4MU1dj3ipz4uSQTILbXK | Will Luna-25 and Chandrayaan-3 collide before the end of August? | "Luna-25 is due to lift off on Friday from Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East, just a few weeks after India launched its lunar lander, Chandrayaan-3, from Satish Dhawan Space Centre in the Bay of Bengal.
Both missions will try to land on the Moon’s south pole on, or around, August 23. It’s not yet clear whi... | 2023-08-11T01:05:53 | 2023-09-01T20:59:00 | 2023-09-02T20:34:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kIlhjSZcDhvStD0L64U2 | Will the Maui wildfire death toll rise above 100? | As of writing this, the toll is 53. This will include only the major wildfire that is happening currently. | 2023-08-11T00:22:19 | 2023-08-16T08:51:02 | 2023-08-16T08:51:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FyzsoHjTgRbglJ6YpTk1 | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 13th September show positive growth? | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 BST on Wednesday 13th September.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (July in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution notes:
... | 2023-08-10T23:27:04 | 2023-09-12T23:25:23 | 2023-09-12T23:25:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l2oYnvgk59fQRURg7o2h | Will at least one US state print ballots without listing Donald Trump due to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | This NYTimes article speculates that Donald Trump may be ineligible to run for elected office due to his role in the Jan 6 insurrection. Stephen Calebresi is quoted: "Trump is ineligible to be on the ballot, and each of the 50 state secretaries of state has an obligation to print ballots without his name on them."
Fro... | 2023-08-10T23:26:03 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T14:30:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fkh4JkhLILZpcvNg7A6z | Will Russia take Avdiivka at least once before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-10T22:31:19 | 2024-02-17T12:55:20 | 2024-02-17T12:55:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6opd0aKMMBTaapvBezD9 | is Australia going to win the soccer women's world cup? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-10T22:03:02 | 2023-08-20T06:59:00 | 2023-08-20T07:13:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AEj7NFtj06YN3FUkHETE | Will MrBeast have over 200 Million subscribers before 2024? (Youtube Main Channel) | Will MrBeast have over 200 Million subscribers before 2024 on this Channel?: https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast
Used Youtube Data if you go on his Channel
250 Million: https://manifold.markets/Base/will-mrbeast-have-over-250-million
[link preview] | 2023-08-10T21:08:28 | 2023-10-17T06:48:11 | 2023-10-17T06:48:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GUZVVxJIXt4dRIDY8MtM | Will a hurricane make landfall as a Category 5 strength on the mainland USA this hurricane season? | Must be Cat 5 at time of landfall
Resolves November 30 | 2023-08-10T18:10:22 | 2023-11-30T23:59:00 | 2023-12-15T06:52:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6aN4LVXSS3TxHeDqqnuR | Will the 2023 Emmy's be postponed further than their current planned date of Jan. 15th, 2024 date? | The 2023 Emmy's have already been postponed from Sept. 18th, 2023, to Jan. 14th, 2024. This is due to the writers and SAG-AFTRA strike. If the date is postponed any further for any reason, then this will count as a yes. This question will be closed as soon as a new date is announced, or on Jan. 15th if there is no post... | 2023-08-10T17:16:59 | 2024-01-15T20:59:00 | 2024-01-15T21:05:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Ij6J2HhvjYUqy76Fdc3 | Will someone else be richer than Elon Musk at the end of 2023? | If Elon Musk loses his title but then regains it before the end of this year, then it will not count as yes. As long as Elon Musk is the richest man in the world going in to 2024 then it count as no. | 2023-08-10T16:48:12 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:48:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gtd8X20H9cciQVPXPFNs | Will SCOTUS and/or the Justice Department block the Perdue Pharma (Sackler family) settlement? | see https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/08/justices-put-purdue-pharma-bankruptcy-plan-on-hold/
[link preview] | 2023-08-10T16:23:22 | 2024-06-27T08:21:19 | 2024-06-27T08:21:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cWsrA2Skpm1nD6rWbM26 | Will a TinyBox ship in 2023? | Context: George Hotz recently launched tiny corp. Their product will be the tinybox, a $15k machine capable of "[running] 65B FP16 LLaMA out of the box". Based on WayBack Machine snapshots, the timeline for shipping the tinybox is 2-6 months, starting May 25 2023.
Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the t... | 2023-08-10T15:51:26 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:17:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-shJvxGyCAQ9joXuuBEPs | Will Putin die before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-10T15:14:41 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T09:53:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mBCHbqhuw7nN28qmGMNj | Will Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party before 2027? | This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of m... | 2023-08-10T15:05:42 | 2024-06-14T15:52:33 | 2024-06-14T15:52:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kX0DL3kpPspvNudTO2Gy | Will Donald Trump be the republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-10T14:35:24 | 2024-06-01T20:59:00 | 2024-08-01T11:03:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8jsV9CCriilY2Kitsrib | Will gpt4.5 be released by 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-10T12:40:36 | 2024-12-31T10:32:00 | 2025-01-02T16:49:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5U6xmbIqXmpeFnM5ubEW | Will there be at least 15 "Dark Brandon" themed items on the Joe Biden campaign store by the end of 2023? | Decided by how many items are in the "Dark" section of the Biden campaign store. (https://shop.joebiden.com/dark/) I may bet in this market.
[link preview] | 2023-08-10T12:16:32 | 2023-11-21T20:53:50 | 2023-11-21T20:53:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yID8FIIXiwGA912fbq1F | Will One Of The Top 5 American Newspapers Use The Word "Transbian" By August 2024? | For the purposes of this question, the top five american newspapers are:
1. The Wall Street Journal
2. The New York Times
3. USA Today
4. The Washington Post
5. Los Angeles Times
The question will be decided by doing a google search for "transbian" site:newspaper for each of the five newpapers... | 2023-08-10T12:13:14 | 2024-08-01T20:59:00 | 2024-08-02T04:05:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zv3ezS6O1GfvFa7RtVkm | Will the U.S. inflation be 3.65% or less in August 2023? | U.S. inflation from December 2022 to August 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%.
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.65% or less in August 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.9812415)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and... | 2023-08-10T10:36:09 | 2023-09-13T15:17:28 | 2023-09-13T15:17:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5FRhKP6t4ORoM5cmyaRA | Will anyone in a MrBeast video be flown into Space before 2025? | A more relaxed constraint question to my previous
https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-mr-beast-release-a-video-where
This one can include other smaller providers like Virgin Galactic, and it wouldn't have to be MrBeast himself who flies into space. Ex, he could choose someone as a 'winner' to send into space.
... | 2023-08-10T09:52:37 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-12-31T22:46:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h9AylNYu0DvXJltk0P2l | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 11th August than it closed on 10th August? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 11th August than it did on Thursday 10th August?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are some monthly markets for the month of August:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6b2ebca28f2e
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-en... | 2023-08-10T09:29:19 | 2023-08-11T08:30:00 | 2023-08-11T08:48:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B | Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023? | If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.
IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the defacto military and one of the most prominant political parties in Lebanon.
Resolution will happen if either side d... | 2023-08-10T06:42:05 | 2023-12-31T19:05:32 | 2023-12-31T19:05:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CtHGyIml4BmRTzQvwjlv | Will September 2023 be the hottest September on record? | As per NOAA's global report for September, will September 2023 be the hotest recorded September? Note that this will close at the end of the month, but will only resolve once the results are offically posted.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
[link preview] | 2023-08-10T05:47:35 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-13T16:49:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7 | Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year? | See article for context. If a reputable source replicate the observations and confirms that the standard model of gravity breaks down before the end of the year this will resolve as a yes.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/ak3jwb/unbelievable-astronomer-claims-direct-evidence-of-gravity-breaking-down
[link preview] | 2023-08-10T04:38:28 | 2023-09-01T08:53:30 | 2023-09-01T08:53:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XIOqRKbJlQtp8jGVkzot | Will Worldcoin ($WLD) be below $1 before the end of Aug 23? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-10T03:13:18 | 2023-08-31T15:59:00 | 2023-08-31T16:02:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DxcmICnEyKELmMlxXO85 | Will Elon Musk blame his doctor/Canadian girlfriend/mother for declining to fight Mark Zuckerberg in 2023? | If Musk doesn't decline the fight the market will resolve to NO.
If he postpones the decision past 2023 it will also resolve to NO.
It will only resolve to YES if he declines the fight in 2023 with blaming it on his doctor etc. Example: he tweets "I have to decline the fight because my doctor strongly advises again... | 2023-08-10T02:09:30 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:57:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hOK031QusrqBm6tIX47s | Will Cristiano Ronaldo play at UEFA Euro 2024? | Resolves YES if Cristiano Ronaldo plays for any amount of time in any match of the upcoming UEFA Euro 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise. | 2023-08-10T01:32:14 | 2024-06-18T12:00:00 | 2024-06-18T12:01:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0kJflPvg7RHfqspR49EG | Will Cruise and Waymo be approved to charge for rides across San Francisco 24/7 by 2023-08-10? | According to this article, a government approval has been delayed. If the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approves it by August 10, then this market resolves to yes. If it is delayed or voted down, then the market resolves to no.
https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/10/cruise-and-waymos-24-7-san-francisco-rob... | 2023-08-09T22:45:47 | 2023-08-10T23:59:00 | 2023-08-13T14:57:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CgEq6P6QP5dSUa6vdpeR | Will Tesla deliver more than 1,000 new Cyber Trucks by the end of Q4, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T20:21:56 | 2023-12-31T22:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:23:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uTmiKne7xHlzadhPFzlA | Will 'Baldur's Gate 3' win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldur%27s_Gate_3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards
Baldur's Gate markets: https://manifold.markets/group/baldurs-gate | 2023-08-09T19:26:34 | 2023-12-07T20:02:54 | 2023-12-07T20:02:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DxDb36ftEtrkG8O1Oi4X | Will 'Baldur's Gate 3' win any awards at The Game Awards 2023? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldur%27s_Gate_3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards
Baldur's Gate markets: https://manifold.markets/group/baldurs-gate | 2023-08-09T19:25:50 | 2023-12-07T19:44:09 | 2023-12-07T19:44:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NeLHUjD3PExSOQUyIYnD | Will England win against Colombia on Saturday, August 12, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup | ⚽ England W vs Colombia W
📅 Date: Saturday, August 12, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 10:30
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw at the end of the regular time.
🕐 Market Closing Time: The market is set to close 180 minutes after the match star... | 2023-08-09T18:59:57 | 2023-08-12T05:49:10 | 2023-08-12T05:49:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XdVsBDRdN5ZNGGlikq7S | Will Australia win against France on Saturday, August 12, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup | ⚽ Australia W vs France W
📅 Date: Saturday, August 12, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 07:00
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw at the end of the regular time.
🕐 Market Closing Time: The market is set to close 180 minutes after the match star... | 2023-08-09T18:59:52 | 2023-08-12T03:00:00 | 2023-08-12T03:42:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WxmgQLOxekvAkPTEiEKo | Will Taylor Swift announce 1989 (Taylor's Version) tonight? | https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/taylor-swift-1989-taylors-version-eras-tour-conspiracy
[link preview](https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/will-taylor-swift-release-1989-tayl)General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the ma... | 2023-08-09T17:36:52 | 2023-08-09T23:11:50 | 2023-08-09T23:11:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DtlCQORyhCKig6doJK1P | Will the rapper Lil Tay's reported death be revealed to be fake by the end of the week | Rapper Lil Tay has been reported dead at 14 in several outlets. In my sole opinion, will Lil Tay's death be revealed to be faked by the 1st of the year, 2024?
https://ew.com/celebrity/lil-tay-the-sensation-dies-at/
[link preview] | 2023-08-09T15:42:42 | 2023-08-16T15:59:00 | 2023-08-18T14:42:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EkjydGxS8XTWBFlhF3ut | Will Joe Biden break his hip while president? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T14:52:41 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-01-23T10:36:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hNWDiWp6ecld61IPNPIZ | Will Joe Biden test positive for Covid by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T14:50:01 | 2023-12-31T20:50:44 | 2023-12-31T20:50:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XuK3St7xBwM0w6UzmDYX | Will Shein IPO in 2024? | Definition of Outcome: The market will resolve as “Yes” if Shein successfully completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO) and its shares are first available for public trading on any recognized stock exchange within the calendar year 2024, Eastern Time (ET).
Verification Sources: The outcome will be determined based o... | 2023-08-09T13:36:57 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-19T16:28:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZT9Y8xMLyyFOIYgGzF0k | Will Shein IPO in 2023? | Definition of Outcome: The market will resolve as “Yes” if Shein successfully completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO) and its shares are first available for public trading on any recognized stock exchange within the calendar year 2023, Eastern Time (ET).
Verification Sources: The outcome will be determined based o... | 2023-08-09T13:35:32 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:51:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BMPiPtDMMwcih6OKHCOD | Will GitHub be down on August 11th 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-11 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
#github
[link preview] | 2023-08-09T13:28:03 | 2023-08-11T14:16:06 | 2023-08-11T14:16:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4cLFijVQ3RXV1Orxc3WJ | Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if WeWork announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.
The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels (e.g. https://www.wework.com/newsroom, etc.), as a recorded or written sta... | 2023-08-09T13:13:22 | 2023-11-07T00:48:13 | 2023-11-07T00:48:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bNZa83Oc9FsncnTkELpK | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 10 than it closed on August 9? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---... | 2023-08-09T12:28:41 | 2023-08-10T11:00:00 | 2023-08-10T13:20:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zxTamg6q5TpxDqM1qb0D | Will a release date for GPT5 be announced officially in 2023? | OpenAI has filed an application for the trademark “GPT-5” and begun a new web scraping process, but will they give us a release date this year? | 2023-08-09T11:22:44 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-03T09:22:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CR38S1mOeaLe4bVYrmYX | Will there be a government shut down this year? | Will the US government officially shut down before the end of 2023? | 2023-08-09T10:48:22 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:20:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fwVZFooHYhplzBuSjpgg | Will future tropical storm Emily develop by August 31? | The next named tropical storm to develop in the Atlantic will be named Emily.
Resolves according to classification by the National Hurricane Center. | 2023-08-09T10:37:31 | 2023-08-20T08:15:35 | 2023-08-20T08:15:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XdZaR7TAxqaMO8ohi0VZ | Will 80% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 23rd August? | On 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.
The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come bac... | 2023-08-09T10:01:09 | 2023-08-18T00:58:22 | 2023-08-18T00:58:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6flDANjmKJ7Q9nfd7y03 | Will Messi become Inter Miami's all-time top goalscorer by May 2024? | >29 goals before May 1st
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Inter_Miami_CF_records_and_statistics#Top_goalscorers | 2023-08-09T09:37:21 | 2024-04-27T20:22:01 | 2024-04-27T20:22:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zMr1xgtxntR5ARFPeLT6 | Will Real Madrid win the 2023/24 La Liga? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T09:16:14 | 2024-05-05T05:46:55 | 2024-05-05T05:46:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NuwdlEJeVUgEMkhmLwvX | Will Barcelona win the 2023/24 La Liga? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T09:15:01 | 2024-05-05T05:43:47 | 2024-05-05T05:43:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lpPVwnSOrHhzLn0jMMEG | Will Inter Miami make it to the 2023 Leagues Cup final? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T08:52:57 | 2023-08-15T18:08:51 | 2023-08-15T18:08:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0wdvKHfHXqWPB2nIetBj | Will Charlotte FC beat Inter Miami? ⚽ 2023 Leagues Cup | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T08:52:03 | 2023-08-11T19:30:00 | 2023-08-12T04:41:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vg3WmUzxEMA8yVWdhzZG | Will Messi score 2 or more goals against Charlotte FC? ⚽ 2023 Leagues Cup | Regular time and extra time only. | 2023-08-09T08:42:32 | 2023-08-11T19:30:00 | 2023-08-13T11:14:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7LxcLPJKi3jA86XghgQE | Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T06:33:40 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-04T17:57:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qU5LploybZ0PU4aMUz8N | Will 3 or more goals be scored in the Women's World Cup final? | Only goals scored during regular time and extra time count, not penalty shootout. | 2023-08-09T06:22:04 | 2023-08-20T05:04:13 | 2023-08-20T05:04:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IvYcPN4RH4qY8TpoWyA3 | Will the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel reach a historic agreement within one year? | Such an agreement must include the following:
-Saudi Arabia recognises Israel
-Israel makes concessions to Palestinians
-The US offers Saudi Arabia security guarantees
-The US offers Saudi Arabia civilian nuclear aid
As reported by WSJ
If a historic agreement is reached that fulfills the spirit of this question ... | 2023-08-09T06:13:23 | 2024-08-10T08:59:00 | 2024-08-12T16:32:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-B2AaHlIAUaUJ5N5mkRZt | Will Yann LeCun insult a respected AI researcher on Twitter (X) in 2023? | Resolves yes if Yann LeCun insults a respected AI researcher on Twitter (X) in 2023 but after creation of this market. | 2023-08-09T06:07:35 | 2023-11-01T11:05:39 | 2023-11-01T11:05:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U9D8wE2kG0tKGEVcKj41 | Will Liverpool win the 2023/24 Premier League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T06:01:56 | 2024-05-17T06:54:40 | 2024-05-17T06:54:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oT4h9KwapfRFBdRccnBx | Will Manchester City win the 2023/24 Premier League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T06:01:18 | 2024-05-19T09:59:53 | 2024-05-19T09:59:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yVM8lZKKVFvdfRi7FiJA | Will Arsenal win the 2023/24 Premier League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T05:59:39 | 2024-05-19T10:00:13 | 2024-05-19T10:00:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pRLjlpL6zQX4flKxY7wz | Will Biden win the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T05:51:05 | 2024-09-03T20:34:16 | 2024-09-03T20:34:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LncdItiobNq9P0gzmeKw | Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2024? | Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval. | 2023-08-09T04:48:44 | 2024-08-13T12:49:57 | 2024-08-13T12:49:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-afmliPC1uSwyuuMbSg1n | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2023 FIDE World Cup? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-09T04:39:37 | 2023-08-24T04:40:45 | 2023-08-24T04:40:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6yIwt8vy8OO7KFiUoydL | Will GitHub be down on August 10th 2023? | Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-10 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
[link preview] | 2023-08-09T00:52:06 | 2023-08-10T10:41:26 | 2023-08-10T10:41:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tW8UPod6h6uwvttCsLvs | Will the Labour Party win 400 or more seats in the next UK general election? | Resolves YES if the Labour Party win 400 or more parliamentary seats in the next UK general election. | 2023-08-08T23:49:52 | 2024-07-16T13:36:21 | 2024-07-16T13:36:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-63car1gh8C6CWQf4guqN | Will Twitter.com redirect to X.com by EOY? | Currently, X.com redirects to Twitter.com, though all of the branding on the site is "X". Will this be reversed, and Twitter.com redirect to X.com by EOY?
Resolves YES if at any point Twitter.com redirects to X.com on or before Dec 31, 2023, even if this decision is later reversed. | 2023-08-08T21:22:55 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:02:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GHuczJsraJ7eJVfr0DMa | Will the NASDAQ Composite reach above 14400 by the end of the calendar year | This will be a new 1 year high (as of today's date being 9th August 2023) for the NASDAQ Composite.
At any point where the NASDAQ Composite goes above 14400 in the 2023 Calendar year from this point, the question will resolve YES.
Any other result under 14400 will resolve NO on the 1st of January 2024.
I will not b... | 2023-08-08T18:43:59 | 2023-11-29T12:33:34 | 2023-11-29T12:33:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L0Zff4QzjWnIe1VzztA2 | Will Tesla drop below 220 USD by October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-08T17:40:38 | 2023-10-20T03:30:59 | 2023-10-20T03:30:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OsGBSa24swM2W2QnJIdq | Will APL Materials publish the research on LK-99 ? | Lee Seok-bae, CEO of the Quantum Energy Institute, is in the process of publishing his thesis in 'APL Materials', an academic journal published by the American Physical Society .
Will the LK-99 article pass peer review and be published by APL Materials before the end of the year ?
The article should be published in... | 2023-08-08T17:40:20 | 2024-01-01T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:58:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RCDfT0UFBdLWSviYqtXI | Will North Korea launch a missile test by August 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile test between August 8, 7 30 PM ET and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". | 2023-08-08T17:34:01 | 2023-08-28T06:05:23 | 2023-08-28T06:05:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M90geshTKB3JTgMAowHa | Will there be a US Ethereum ETF approved in 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Ethereum-based futures ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". | 2023-08-08T17:32:18 | 2023-10-05T07:58:45 | 2023-10-05T07:58:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LvlQPsLcQ3J9sFWqzVTs | Will Japan win against Sweden on Friday, August 11, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup | ⚽ Japan W vs Sweden W
📅 Date: Friday, August 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 07:30
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw. Please note that penalties and extra time are considered in determining the outcome
🕐 Market Closing Time: The market i... | 2023-08-08T16:05:51 | 2023-08-11T03:07:10 | 2023-08-11T03:07:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I3lBqR5YtWAVjV1Z6nrt | Aaron Peskin runs for Mayor of San Francisco | This market resolves to YES if Aaron Peskin, currently District 3 Supervisor, files paperwork with the SF Department of Elections to run for Mayor by the deadline (July 2024). Any subsequent withdrawals from the election will not affect the outcome of this market. | 2023-08-08T15:26:14 | 2024-07-25T23:00:15 | 2024-07-25T23:00:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AVN6m4iitRbpmGagbjxm | Will Signal release phone number privacy AND usernames by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if phone number privacy AND Signal usernames are in a public release version of the Signal app on iOS OR Android. This means that one can hide phone numbers from people they are talking to, and people can add you via a username.
Signal may still require a phone number to sign up, and require a user to op... | 2023-08-08T13:57:47 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:42:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GVwJBOztRIYzUTIKpP4n | Will bitcoin be worth over $150,000 by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-08T13:53:35 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-05T13:31:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WxsT0nUrvFCVVrtQEQB9 | Will the Guardian publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors by the end of August? | Since there was so much excitement around LK-99 on Manifold and in a lot of other online spaces, I was surprised to see the lack of mainstream media coverage of the alleged discovery and the attempts at replication.
I created these three markets on whether there would be coverage from the Economist, the BBC and the Gu... | 2023-08-08T13:42:31 | 2023-08-31T14:00:00 | 2023-08-31T14:13:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GSWArZeq3QdbO4lWOW9d | Will the BBC News site publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors by the end of August? | Since there was so much excitement around LK-99 on Manifold and in a lot of other online spaces, I was surprised to see the lack of mainstream media coverage of the alleged discovery and the attempts at replication.
I created these three markets on whether there would be coverage from the Economist, the BBC and the Gu... | 2023-08-08T13:38:25 | 2023-08-31T14:00:00 | 2023-08-31T14:14:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZpApIsXGCCjdq0ljDoKT | Will the New York Times Magazine kill their variety puzzle page by end of 2024? [M$1000 subsidy] | Their variety puzzle page (currently with a Spelling Bee, two word puzzles, and a grid logic puzzle; usually on the page before the crossword) has always been somewhat niche, but has existed since like 2016. In March 2023, they removed it from their website (even though it was literally just pdfs that they'd already ma... | 2023-08-08T13:29:48 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:12:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4V3LxlE3o3VAmfpR6QiF | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 9 than it closed on August 8? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---... | 2023-08-08T12:56:59 | 2023-08-09T11:00:00 | 2023-08-09T13:09:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0S2LV5tu4cGb9Y7zFEEx | "Is the stock market collapse beginning?" | This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of m... | 2023-08-08T12:05:58 | 2024-08-09T14:59:00 | 2024-08-09T15:08:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dC9qpsW7ktfksftI1mdP | Will Russia withdraw all its forces and mercenary groups from Donetsk and Luhansk before July 1st 2024? | The question is about cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, not the regions / "Oblast".
Resolution:
- resolves to YES immediately once an official order to withdraw Russian troops / army / forces from Donetsk AND Luhansk is confirmed by at least 5 reputable sources (please, add sources in comments in this case)
OR
- resol... | 2023-08-08T10:44:45 | 2024-06-30T13:44:08 | 2024-06-30T13:44:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BVFGQBehvqtmnyA83WJR | Will Ted Cruz be the next Republican elected President? | I think he is probably the most talented Republican politician and were it not for Trump he would almost certainly be nearing the end of his second term today. He currently faces reelection in Texas, which gives him incredible cover to raise money in plain site as a Senate candidate which he could at any moment pivot t... | 2023-08-08T09:43:13 | 2024-11-21T11:40:43 | 2024-11-21T11:40:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zzQhn6kzoqWUA6IuU1zz | Will SpaceX Starship reach orbit at least 2 times in 2024? | Will SpaceX Starship successfully reach orbit at least 2 times before end of 2024? | 2023-08-08T09:07:33 | 2024-10-22T21:55:49 | 2024-10-24T06:03:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QZHPWWLk6AQkp7hfja7R | Will Simon Case (the UK Cabinet Secretary) lose his job before the end of 2024? | Resolved No if Simon Case is still the UK's Cabinet Secretary on 1 Jan 2025. | 2023-08-08T08:51:28 | 2024-12-16T08:40:03 | 2024-12-16T08:40:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cjyKy07rRJPqZAu8SuXR | Will Each Team Score? ⚽ Australia vs France | Women's World Cup
8/12 Match
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
Extra time included, but not penalty shootout. | 2023-08-08T07:02:09 | 2023-08-12T04:42:18 | 2023-08-12T04:42:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gylArDEcSi5Ierza4Npy | Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Australia vs France | Women's World Cup - Quarter-finals | 2023-08-08T06:57:24 | 2023-08-12T03:00:00 | 2023-08-12T04:42:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J360ziepkMZsMDs5S1jc | Will bitcoin price be greater than $100,000 USD on Jan 1 2025 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-08T06:35:43 | 2025-01-02T12:13:39 | 2025-01-02T12:13:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PfEI6pclVYEydzjEUN9Z | Will England defeat Colombia in their quarter-finals match? Women’s World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if England wins their quarter-final match and advances and NO if Colombia do. A draw is not possible. If the match does not occur for a reason other than forfeit the market resolves N/A.
Close date is set for after the game but the market may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market. | 2023-08-08T05:40:19 | 2023-08-12T05:33:54 | 2023-08-12T05:33:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FfqTGPKyfofaZpu1tDUd | Tesla licenses FSD tech to another automaker by the end of 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-08T05:40:14 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-05T22:31:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G6wahEJyxHBWRfTjZrOK | Will the Time Person of the Year 2023 be American? | Will resolve YES if all people named Time Person of the Year 2023 hold American citizenship.
Will resolve NO if all people named Time Person of the Year 2023 do not hold American citizenship.
Will resolve N/A if people both with and without American citizenship are named or if no people are named.
Those being named ... | 2023-08-08T05:18:04 | 2023-12-06T06:00:00 | 2023-12-06T06:27:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jM87vSjFEILozAlc25xv | Will Ukraine retake Bakhmut by the end of 2023? | The Battle of Bakhmut is the longest one of the Ukraine-Russia war, running from november 2022 to now.
In may of 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were pushed out of the city. Following the claimed victory, the Wagner group retreated from the city and was replaced by regular Russian troops.
Since then, the Ukrainian... | 2023-08-08T02:24:13 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:09:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SMufrSX2uXwiriwjyfMA | Will Twitter/X.com pay for anyone's legal bills related to what they said on the platform, before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-08T01:14:46 | 2023-11-16T18:18:08 | 2023-11-16T18:18:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b2r7oJBPQ0JA2KQF27F4 | If Ohio Issue 1 doesn't pass, will the Ohio Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative pass? | Currently, the Ohio Constitution can be amended by ballot measures that receive a majority of the vote. Ohio Issue 1 would limit the threshold for an amendment to the Ohio Constitution, as well as adding a few restrictions to the signature collection process. The vote on Issue 1 takes place on August 8, while the Repro... | 2023-08-07T23:14:39 | 2023-11-07T18:17:27 | 2023-11-07T18:17:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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