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stringlengths 8
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-8dfv5xj9aHJT6a0M1mCT
|
Will the Ohio Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative pass?
|
The amendment to Ohio's constitution is scheduled for a vote on Nov 7 this year. If it passes, this resolves YES. If it fails, or if it doesn't end up being voted on by the end of November for some reason, this resolves NO.
|
2023-08-07T23:02:51
|
2023-11-07T18:17:08
|
2023-11-07T18:17:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FtlHMJ45Z0cFxdGPfZXg
|
Will any lead-apatite superconductor with Tc > 30K be found before 2025?
|
This question will resolve Yes if any lead apatite family material is found to be a superconductor at temperatures above 30K and ambient pressure before 2025.
The lead apatite family will be defined to include any material that:
Consists of at least 75% by mass of some combination of lead, oxygen, and phosphorous;
Contains at least 1 phosphorous atom per 3 lead atoms. (For comparison, LK-99 is 97.5% lead, oxygen, and phosphorous, with 2 phosphorous atoms per lead atom.);
Has an atomic atomic ratio of at least 1:1 Pb:Cu, and;
Is at least 10% lead by mass.
Resolution will be based on published, peer-reviewed results with published replications.
This question is intended to mirror the metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18242/lead-apatite-superconductors/
The above definition of the lead apatite family is bad; suggestions very much welcome!
|
2023-08-07T18:48:37
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-01T14:42:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eX3zHeFcHrn6E5LseG7n
|
Will Berkshire Hathaway have a market cap > $1 Trillion by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-07T18:00:18
|
2024-08-28T07:31:55
|
2024-08-28T07:31:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-12t8c4PXkw7WadaMJ6Ya
|
If Yudkowsky and Hotz debate in 2023, will Yudkowsky "win"?
|
YES = Yudkowsky
NO = Hotz
In response to https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1688617812141785088
"Winning" the debate is understood to be a subjective metric.
This market resolves 48 hours after the debate completes (if streamed live) or is released (if it is not streamed live and released as a recording).
The market resolves according to a Manifold poll opened after the conculsion of the debate and closed 48 hours later. The poll will ask "Who won the debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and George Hotz?"
Link to the poll: https://manifold.markets/JacobWood/who-won-the-debate-between-eliezer
If no debate takes place by the end of 2023 the market resolves NA.
8/15 9:02AM PDT edit - changed resolution criteria from resolving as a probability to resolving according to the results of a poll
8/15 3:39PM PDT edit - added link to the poll for resolution
|
2023-08-07T14:39:09
|
2023-08-17T15:37:00
|
2023-08-17T21:01:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-38pVjy9nqP5tLPVPhQlG
|
Will analysis of the interstellar IM1 Meteor prove to be of Artificial (Alien) Origin?
|
TL;DR
In 2014 an intestellar meteor (officially known as CNEOS 20140108 or IM1) plunged into the Pacific ocean
A few months ago, a team led by Harvard professor Avi Loeb recovered fragments of the meteor
50 Fragments mostly iron spheres about 0.1 to 0.7mm in diameter
Analysis of the fragments is currently being done and according to Prof. Loeb results should be available "within a month or so"
Loeb reports that no less than four research institutions are currently training their scientific equipment and personnel on samples from the recovered metal fragments.
The fragments, 50 mostly iron spheres about 0.1 to 0.7mm in diameter, likely came from an object that originated outside of our solar system — based on analysis by Loeb and a former student as well as scientists with US Space Command.
Loeb's colleagues in Germany, Papua New Guinea and at two top universities in the United States are now busy scrutinizing the spheres to determine if their atomic isotopes, chemical composition and other details can prove an otherworldly origin.
Professor Loeb mentioned there will be results within a month, but I've set the question to close in 2 months for good measure.
'We are in the process of finding out, within a month or so, what this meteor was made of and whether it is perhaps technological in origin or not,' Loeb said
'It was moving faster than 95 perecnt of the nearby stars near the Sun because of some propulsion it had,' according to Loeb. 'It was also made of some very tough material.'
Loeb has left open the possibility that IM1 — which is estimated to have been about 3 ft. in diameter and approximately half a US ton in weight as it burned through Earth's atmosphere shedding tiny molten metal droplets — might have been an alien probe
|
2023-08-07T14:35:23
|
2023-10-04T05:59:00
|
2023-10-04T18:05:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eu4Dgnxng29yecXxKowJ
|
Will Colombia win against Jamaica on Tuesday, August 8, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
|
⚽ Colombia W vs Jamaica W**
📅 Date: Tuesday, August 8, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 08:00
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw. Please note that penalties and extra time are considered in determining the outcome
🕐 Market Closing Time: The market is set to close 180 minutes after the match starts. However, please be aware that an automated script is checking the API continuously, and the market may resolve immediately once the match is reported as finished by the API, regardless of the closing time
🔎 To make better bets you can search for the match on Google
|
2023-08-07T14:04:08
|
2023-08-08T04:00:00
|
2023-08-08T08:14:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xiHM7UB9OmXcsRakFkry
|
Will Tesla reach a 1 Trillion $ market cap before 7th Aug 2025?
|
Will resolve YES if market cap is reached at the close of any trading day over the next 2 years.
|
2023-08-07T12:37:17
|
2024-11-08T13:00:02
|
2024-11-08T13:00:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hESHTjMgJH4jdpzi8mFw
|
Will Destiny debate Ben Shapiro within 2023?
|
If Destiny debates or gets on a call with Ben Shapirowithin 2023 even for a debate or a call then - Yes
If not- NO
|
2023-08-07T12:20:26
|
2023-12-31T10:29:00
|
2023-12-31T14:31:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qtj27582kcmtTUZtC9Ds
|
Will Julia Galef (author of The Scout Mindset) come to Manifest 2023?
|
Julia Galef is a well-known rationalist figure, founder of CFAR, host of Rationally Speaking, and author of The Scout Mindset. She seems like an ideal candidate for a conference on forecasting, but note that she hasn't traded or referenced Manifold before (as far as we know, anyways). We've invited Julia to come as a speaker/guest of honor to Manifest 2023; will she come?
Resolves to YES if Julia attends our conference (whether she speaks or not).
|
2023-08-07T10:34:36
|
2023-10-02T19:37:25
|
2023-10-02T19:37:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N044bfviluULmfLPL8U4
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs in the 2023-24 NFL season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-07T10:02:51
|
2024-01-08T07:34:57
|
2024-01-08T07:34:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P2I9UxRiqHWG8wMGNjJY
|
Will $TSLA close above $250 this week?
|
Will resolve as YES if the stock price of Tesla, Inc. is greater than $250.00 at the close of this week, Friday August 11th. Will resolve as no otherwise.
|
2023-08-07T09:41:38
|
2023-08-11T14:59:00
|
2023-08-11T15:13:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iv1J4kqBcsFs2ClRHKaS
|
Will Jack Smith be TIME magazine's 2023 Person of the Year?
|
For clarification, if a group is collectively awarded it, and Jack Smith is specifically mentioned as part of that group, this shall resolve YES.
|
2023-08-07T09:18:12
|
2023-12-05T21:59:00
|
2023-12-06T08:27:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bxExTS5maUMTPqP61gKZ
|
Will Boeing's Starliner carry crew to orbit by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-07T08:11:21
|
2024-06-05T18:01:16
|
2024-06-05T18:01:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K7LSHE4UNZJ7d5dtOm9G
|
Will the 2024 Tour de France have Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel?
|
Resolves YES if all of those riders start stage 1.
|
2023-08-07T08:00:35
|
2024-06-29T20:59:00
|
2024-06-30T05:39:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9iZKgcWbcZSScCLmWACc
|
Will Each Team Score? ⚽ France vs Morocco
|
Women's World Cup
8/8 Match
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
Extra time included, but not penalty shootout.
|
2023-08-07T06:44:15
|
2023-08-08T05:53:19
|
2023-08-08T05:53:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LuOSV8Tcl4A9AxkFZgtP
|
Will France score 2 or more goals against Morocco at the Women's World Cup?
|
8/8 match
Goals scored during regular time and extra time only.
|
2023-08-07T06:41:01
|
2023-08-08T05:04:32
|
2023-08-08T05:04:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-klsyEPvPWYtnekgHiqbY
|
Will Barbie gross $1.4 billion worldwide by the end of 2023?
|
The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $1.03 billion worldwide.
That makes it the second film of the year (after the Super Mario Bros Movie) to hit the Billon Dollar mark and Manifold users currently give it a 95% chance of hitting $1.2 billion:
@/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-12-billion-worldw
Will it keep going and hit $1.4 billion?
I will use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source. If the worldwide total hits $1.4 billion (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the year and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.
|
2023-08-07T06:20:38
|
2023-09-11T03:34:19
|
2023-09-11T03:34:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8OSLs3GWqm6ymIXJu0eR
|
Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Spain vs Netherlands
|
Women's World Cup - Quarter-finals
|
2023-08-07T05:50:55
|
2023-08-10T18:49:43
|
2023-08-10T18:49:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tbWTi6iD5FqePmmS2dOh
|
Will Each Team Score? ⚽ Spain vs Netherlands
|
Women's World Cup
8/10 Match
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
Extra time included, but not penalty shootout.
|
2023-08-07T05:48:11
|
2023-08-10T19:53:58
|
2023-08-10T19:53:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-at5CMP4PoBbe4wDdJo3q
|
Will a player take off her shirt when celebrating a goal in 2023 Women’s World Cup?
|
I don't watch all the full matches, so if you find someone doing this please send me a link or the game where this happens.
|
2023-08-07T04:58:34
|
2023-08-19T20:20:14
|
2023-08-19T20:20:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sKp57gtg5t4czh1PGftc
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Spurs finish in the top 4?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Top 4 teams in the table will qualify to play in the UEFA Champions League the following season. Will Tottenham Hotspur finish in the top 4?
Top 4
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-07T03:38:38
|
2024-05-18T07:14:00
|
2024-05-18T07:14:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-raSlSrk2qGtXRPM4xdVK
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Newcastle finish in the top 4?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Top 4 teams in the table will qualify to play in the UEFA Champions League the following season. Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4?
Top 4 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-07T03:38:11
|
2024-05-18T10:29:53
|
2024-05-18T10:29:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SfDxyn63wizMXMzz3dJC
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Manchester United finish in the top 4?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Top 4 teams in the table will qualify to play in the UEFA Champions League the following season. Will Manchester United finish in the top 4?
Top 4 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-07T03:37:55
|
2024-05-18T10:30:01
|
2024-05-18T10:30:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y5Hh44c7OGIrLXLWQMb9
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Liverpool finish in the top 4?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Top 4 teams in the table will qualify to play in the UEFA Champions League the following season. Will Liverpool finish in the top 4?
Top 4 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-07T03:37:13
|
2024-05-19T01:35:51
|
2024-05-19T01:35:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zltFPRU32PVBbKugwQsy
|
Premier League 2023/4 - Will Arsenal finish in the top 4?
|
The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.
Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.
The Top 4 teams in the table will qualify to play in the UEFA Champions League the following season. Will Arsenal finish in the top 4?
Top 4 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f
@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin
|
2023-08-07T03:36:22
|
2024-05-19T01:35:31
|
2024-05-19T01:35:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dbj3dwwa3EUSLmE3Vehp
|
Will a matmul algorithm better than O(n^{2.371552}) [Willians et al. 2023] be published before the end of 2025?
|
To date the best announced bound on the asymptotic complexity for matrix multiplication is 2.371552, published as a preprint [1].
Before the end of 2025, will a better bound appear in PEER REVIEWED venue?
Preprints will not be accepted as sufficient evidence, since there are perverse market incentives and verification issues for resolution.
[1] https://cs.paperswithcode.com/paper/new-bounds-for-matrix-multiplication-from
[link preview]
|
2023-08-07T02:43:50
|
2024-12-12T22:35:43
|
2024-12-12T22:35:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m0yo4ZdAcyhs3PKX16wc
|
Will Australia beat Denmark in tonight's world cup match?
|
Resolved on: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=fifa+women%27s+world+cup+games&ia=soccer
|
2023-08-07T02:42:49
|
2023-08-07T05:55:02
|
2023-08-07T05:55:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dY0K6jGiZl7cPBkkWV74
|
Will Scientists at the NIF produce a net energy gain > 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023?
|
They just produced more than 150% last December and recently produced ~190%:
https://www.ft.com/content/a9815bca-1b9d-4ba0-8d01-96ede77ba06a
|
2023-08-07T02:24:43
|
2023-12-31T04:59:00
|
2024-01-06T17:04:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LElUhonYfDuZvAp66qS8
|
Will Sweden join Nato before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-07T01:51:20
|
2024-01-01T11:39:29
|
2024-01-01T11:39:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nB9MR7jgEXRhguD7YcoD
|
Will GPT-5 be announced in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-07T01:44:39
|
2025-01-01T06:52:47
|
2025-01-01T06:52:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B02UtBRpfOVW5pidQab0
|
Will GitHub be down on August 9th 2023?
|
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident (yellow or red) on 2023-08-09 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-07T01:23:02
|
2023-08-09T13:24:44
|
2023-08-09T13:24:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TSwaXbb77ZI5y7xMi4pr
|
Will the "Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution" replicate by 2024 August 07?
|
Original paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
"Significance" statement from the paper:
"The extent and pace of the transition from our current fossil fuel-based economy to one based on renewable energy will strongly depend on the availability of bulk energy storage solutions. Herein, we investigate one such candidate technology, using chemical precursors which are inexpensive, abundant, and widely available, specifically cement, water, and carbon black. The energy storage capacity of these carbon-cement supercapacitors is shown to be an intensive quantity, and their high rate capability exhibits self-similarity. These properties point to the opportunity for employing these structural concrete-like supercapacitors for bulk energy storage in both residential and industrial applications ranging from energy autarkic shelters and self-charging roads for electric vehicles, to intermittent energy storage for wind turbines."
Press coverage:
Hackaday, "MIT cracks the concrete capacitor"
MIT News, "MIT engineers create an energy-storing supercapacitor from ancient materials"
DevX, "MIT Engineers and their Game-Changing Green Energy Storage Solution"
Resolution criteria:
This market resolves to "YES" if by 2024 August 07 (UTC) a peer-reviewed scientific journal publsihes at least one peer-reviewed paper that satisfies the following conditions:
1. List of paper's authors contains none of the authors of the original paper (Nicolas Chanut, Damian Stefaniuk, James C. Weaver, Franz-Josef Ulm).
2. It is published in a journal's whose latest impact factor (as measured by JCR) exceeds 1.
3. This hypothetical new paper claims that it has succeeded in experimentally reproducing all the performance characteristics reported in the original paper. Resolution does not depend on the details of theoretical interpretation of the underlying mechanism in this new hypothetical paper -- the theory may differ from the original paper's conjectured mechanism.
Otherwise the market resolves to "NO".
|
2023-08-06T23:33:35
|
2024-08-07T07:59:00
|
2024-08-08T04:15:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CK3U0zJsbzV47R7f04HX
|
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record before January 2024?
|
Question closes on January 1st 2024 at 00:00:00 UTC
|
2023-08-06T21:33:58
|
2023-10-20T10:07:48
|
2023-10-20T10:07:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WZkDUuTfZCPaaawQsSma
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Ezra Klein Show podcast by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded.
|
2023-08-06T17:32:37
|
2025-01-01T00:52:06
|
2025-01-01T00:52:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zDzGGU4cUs4Of4Qdpm4A
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 8 than it closed on August 7?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
|
2023-08-06T16:57:50
|
2023-08-08T11:00:00
|
2023-08-08T13:02:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IrqWeTbkvtcBWD1jETyn
|
Will 60 Minutes do a full segment on LK-99 on CBS in the month of August or September 2023
|
LK-99 must be covered on CBS television not online for this question to resolve to yes.
|
2023-08-06T16:38:14
|
2023-10-01T21:59:00
|
2023-10-04T16:34:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ipw8wB2iEZgBqzipHp0n
|
Will Elon Musk Fight Mark Zuckerberg by August 26, 2023?
|
Zuck suggested to fiht Elon August 26 this month, Elon still not confirme.
|
2023-08-06T16:01:08
|
2023-08-27T15:59:00
|
2023-08-29T14:28:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OvA8fQxRtopSwRB4RIVB
|
Will Zvi Mowshowitz be a guest on the Ezra Klein Show podcast before the end of 2024?
|
https://twitter.com/TheZvi
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/
Resolves based on when the podcast is released, not when it is recorded.
|
2023-08-06T15:40:39
|
2025-01-01T02:15:12
|
2025-01-01T02:15:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eoN47sKTMZd7BOgKxrhM
|
Will Sean O'Malley beat Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292?
|
Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley are scheduled to fight on August 19th, 2023 at UFC 292 in Boston, USA.
If Sean O'Malley wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Aljamain Sterling wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
|
2023-08-06T15:18:57
|
2023-08-19T22:09:59
|
2023-08-19T22:09:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XE6iLPRkO9VQgmUk2nRY
|
Will Zuckerberg's Proposed Date of Aug 26 will be accepted for the cage match?
|
Resolves to yes if the proposed cage match happens on during the proposed date of Aug 26 (any timezone). https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1688289414781571073
|
2023-08-06T14:27:58
|
2023-08-25T12:14:53
|
2023-08-25T12:14:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8JTyd83nVNADeDszx4hZ
|
Will it be possible to purchase an Apple Vision Pro from Apple's official United States website by 31 March 2024?
|
Apple announced that the Apple Vision Pro would be available in early 2024. Quoting from this Wikipedia article: [The Apple Vision Pro] was announced on June 5, 2023, at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference, with availability scheduled for early 2024 in the United States [...].
However, delays may occur. Supply shortages have been widespread in recent years, and the manufacturing of some products announced by Apple has been delayed in the past. Additionally, it has happened that at least one product announced by Apple was quietly cancelled before its release. There has also been speculation about production cuts specifically affecting the Apple Vision Pro.
This market will resolve to YES if it is possible for any willing end consumer to purchase an Apple Vision Pro by 31 March 2024 from Apple's official website.
If sales of the Apple Vision Pro are delayed until after 31 March 2024, or if widespread sales are not possible (e.g., if there is a waiting list) this will resolve to NO.
To make the market more concrete, this question refers exclusively to the United States store (since availability in other countries is currently scheduled for later in 2024).
Update 2023/11/30: For a YES resolution, the ability to place an order for the product (i.e., "add to cart & pay", or something equivalent) is sufficient. Pre-orders count, provided they follow the "add to cart & pay" structure or similar. Immediate shipping availability is not required for a YES resolution.
|
2023-08-06T14:25:30
|
2024-01-08T08:28:51
|
2024-01-08T08:28:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XalqpHu3riqMXTsBJ9fO
|
Will all iPhone models announced by Apple in September 2023 contain exactly one USB-C port and no other ports?
|
This resolves YES iff all iPhone models that are announced in September 2023 (according to the date in the "announced" column of this table):
1) contain exactly one charging port;
2) that charging port is a USB-C port.
For example, if the USB-C port is present only in the Pro iPhone models, this would resolve NO.
|
2023-08-06T13:57:33
|
2023-09-30T14:59:00
|
2023-09-30T22:55:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JSSf0Mglt4sQpUEG6piO
|
Will the open water swimming events be able to take place in the Seine river for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?
|
Paris’ test for Olympic swimming in the Seine canceled due to poor water quality
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/26/sport/paris-seine-river-swimming-spt-scli-intl/index.html
(https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/26/sport/paris-seine-river-swimming-spt-scli-intl/index.html)
|
2023-08-06T13:26:06
|
2024-07-31T00:05:40
|
2024-07-31T00:05:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RZvfEjLBEruiRIX8UvcI
|
Will a room temperature and pressure superconductor be filmed fully levitating for 20s in high resolution in 2023?
|
The superconductor in question does not need to be LK-99 or synthesized in the same way. The superconductor only needs to be at room temperature and pressure while demonstrating the Meissner effect (levitation). The high resolution video will need to be scrutinized for manipulation. This market is in response to this tweet which raises concerns that alternative synthesis of similar but superior superconducting materials to LK-99 don't make most of existing superconductivity markets resolve yes. https://twitter.com/floates0x/status/1687972323381727232?s=20
|
2023-08-06T12:13:46
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-02T01:00:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-43ElVrZm5CZfJj2lMbIi
|
Will Sweden win the 2023 women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T11:24:07
|
2023-08-22T16:07:40
|
2023-08-22T16:07:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d0cnzaBA256V4yK6lQcu
|
Will Firefox include a chatbot at end of 2024?
|
Meaning at point of market close - not "at any point before market close".
"End of 2024" in PST, where Mozilla is headquartered.
To count, it has to fulfill these criteria:
1. Must be officially endorsed by Mozilla as the main Firefox chatbot (not just an extension).
2. Must be accessible from the homepage/search, without having to go to a website.
3. Must be available to a majority (>50%) of the general public in at least one country. Available meaning that if they do whatever steps that Mozilla requires (making an account, verifying phone number) they can access it from the Firefox home page.
4. Must be a CHATbot: the AI needs to remember what you've previously said in a conversation. Summarizing what you search doesn't count unless you can pull up a window and talk back and forth, with it remembering context.
It does NOT need to be powered by an LLM, as long as it meets these requirements.
|
2023-08-06T11:21:16
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00
|
2025-01-16T16:59:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MDuBL48mCXMMYy3yEPGg
|
Will Mark Zuckerberg win by Knockout against Elon Musk?
|
If no fight happens, this will resolve to NO.
|
2023-08-06T08:45:33
|
2023-10-01T20:59:00
|
2023-10-01T21:16:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fInOs7k3fQ5C3LIZflgF
|
Will a game from the semi-final be decided via a penalty shootout at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T08:17:55
|
2023-08-16T04:55:51
|
2023-08-16T04:55:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-awikAioXg4RvWbwIAJfv
|
Will any team captain get a red card during the UEFA Euro 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T07:53:26
|
2024-07-14T13:56:02
|
2024-07-14T13:56:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4yVxzSFg0NGLuTCXgQkk
|
Will a hurricane hit New York / New Jersey this year?
|
Will a named hurricane hit New York and/or New Jersey this 2023 hurricane season? Still has to be a hurricane when it makes landfall.
|
2023-08-06T07:50:12
|
2023-12-03T12:33:44
|
2023-12-03T12:33:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pd4RDmElp9QwzoBTie9d
|
Will the sum of the Women's World Cup final match score be an even number?
|
All goals count, regular time, extra time, and penalty shootout. If the match ends in a penalty shootout, the penalty kicks scored are added to the match score in deciding a winner.
|
2023-08-06T07:09:11
|
2023-08-20T05:04:40
|
2023-08-20T05:04:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EyjIMwg9JwRQhQSvE0JU
|
Will there be 4 or more goals scored in the semi-finals of the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T07:05:44
|
2023-08-16T04:55:05
|
2023-08-16T04:55:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tfe5SInTqsH1T7YkwFIP
|
Will there be 11 or more goals scored in the quarter-finals of the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T07:03:35
|
2023-08-12T05:33:11
|
2023-08-12T05:33:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-19hkUvD4whn1rvLA4Am9
|
Will the UEFA Euro 2024 final be decided by penalty kicks?
|
Will the final go to a penalty shoot-out?
|
2023-08-06T07:01:43
|
2024-07-14T13:59:04
|
2024-07-14T13:59:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dXEkeEZ1WkLi2Udvaq4M
|
Will the UEFA Euro 2024 champion be a first time winner?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T07:00:33
|
2024-07-14T13:58:36
|
2024-07-14T13:58:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A0zViYMJeZYwLA2Fkd3x
|
Will England win the UEFA Euro 2024?
|
Is football coming home?
|
2023-08-06T06:57:34
|
2024-07-14T13:59:19
|
2024-07-14T13:59:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kdCAc2jMXhrIcFi0jSni
|
Will Betelgeuse go supernova by December 31 2023
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T06:52:36
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-04T13:30:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I35V7Jh3lEBFRXCqXYOi
|
Will Each Team Score? ⚽ Denmark vs Australia
|
Women's World Cup
8/7 Match
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
Extra time included, but not penalty shootout.
|
2023-08-06T06:23:06
|
2023-08-07T05:24:51
|
2023-08-07T05:24:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yXjTRrriT7cUVrVtjiTg
|
Will a game from the quarter-final be decided via a penalty shootout at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-06T05:11:45
|
2023-08-12T04:43:46
|
2023-08-12T04:43:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kVmZw8xalTByNlvmjPi4
|
Will Japan defeat Sweden in their quarter-finals match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Japan wins their quarter-final match and advances and NO if Sweden do. A draw is not possible. If the match does not occur for a reason other than forfeit the market resolves N/A.
Close date is set for after the game but the market may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-06T04:48:32
|
2023-08-11T04:15:02
|
2023-08-11T04:15:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yWJoem0NKv7BMzr5dJxo
|
Will Dune 2 beat the Barbie movie in world wide earnings?
|
Source:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_tab
|
2023-08-06T04:39:44
|
2024-05-24T10:24:43
|
2024-05-24T10:24:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-07O31SNJtugaHjBxfmPd
|
Will someone beat the 3x3x3 Rubiks Cube world record by the end of 2024?
|
Referring to the single solve current world record:
3.13s - Max Park - 2023
Previous record:
3.47s - Yusheng Du 2018
https://www.speedsolving.com/wiki/index.php/List_of_World_Records/3x3x3
https://en.wikipedia.org//wiki/Speedcubing#World_records
[image]
|
2023-08-06T03:02:47
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:13:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x5VxfI7ehgIpqN1b33DO
|
Will the Loch Ness Exploration operation find the Loch Ness Monster?
|
On the 26th and 27th of August, there will be the biggest survey of Loch Ness since the 1970s. Will it find Nessie?
Resolves YES if the exploration finds a convincingly likely explanation for the Loch Ness Monster phenomenon, such as:
A pleisiosaur
Giant eels
sturgeon
Remains of any of the above
A submersible that looks like Nessie
Resolves NO if the exploration finds nothing that convincingly explains the Nessie phenomenon.
As there may be some subjective discussion of what a "sufficiently likely explanation" is, I will not bet on this market. I will take my guidance from the exploration, if they leave the impression that "this is unsolved, perhaps we will never know" then I will resolve NO, if they lean more "this is the most likely explanation, here's the evidence we found, probably no point searching any further" then I will resolve YES. If I'm not sufficiently convinced either way then I will poll Manifold as to how to resolve.
Close date is the end of the survey but I will delay resolution until the exploration announces their results.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-66393902
[link preview]
|
2023-08-05T23:33:03
|
2023-09-10T15:59:00
|
2023-09-10T22:01:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rV4Uq8siTlhedaq9etVU
|
Will Trump be in a US (state or federal) jail or prison at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024?
|
House arrest does not count.
|
2023-08-05T22:55:44
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T12:28:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sJqsMuEPeW9iDfTWigpE
|
Will Trump plead guilty or be found guilty before Election Day ‘24?
|
This resolves yes iff any criminal case against Trump in the US is resolved before Election Day 2024 in any of the following ways: a guilty verdict (whether by jury or bench trial); a guilty plea; or a plea of no contest or nolo contendere.*
*To achieve finality, this will resolve yes 24 hours after the first guilty verdict is reached and entered. If, within that day, the guilty verdict is reversed in effect, such as through a post-verdict judgment of acquittal or reversal on appeal, it will not count as a guilty plea or verdict. Otherwise, it will count as a guilty plea or verdict, even if there is active litigation around the plea or verdict 24 hours after the verdict.
|
2023-08-05T22:25:20
|
2024-05-31T13:54:53
|
2024-05-31T13:54:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QWZaefGIEtCNEw9q77FX
|
Will AI produce a song that reaches top 10 in the charts by 2025?
|
Within the last year, AI music has boomed in popularity on platforms such as YouTube and Spotify. These range from remixes and voiceovers to completely novel generative songs.
Do you think an AI generated song will make an apperance in the top 10 trending music hits (nationally or globally) on Youtube, Spotify or the music charts before 2025?
|
2023-08-05T21:23:52
|
2024-08-24T00:51:25
|
2024-08-24T00:51:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mn7hvoecdXXVi6b23hey
|
Will we learn of any additional go-to fast food orders of Mark Zuckerberg before EOY?
|
A few days ago Mark Zuckerberg revealed in a Threads comment that his McDonald's order is "20 nuggets, a quarter pounder, large fries, Oreo McFlurry, apple pie, and maybe some side cheeseburgers for later.".
Will Mark share any further go-to fast food orders of his before the end of 2023?
This market will resolve to Yes if Mark or a spokesperson talks about his preferred order for any fast food or QSR franchise, global or American, by the end of 2023. It must be a franchise establishment and not a standalone restaurant or category of restaurant.
Examples of Yes resolution: "whenever I get Taco Bell I order two burritos, a supreme gordita and a Baja blast Mountain Dew"; "if Mark is eating at Panera he gets the mac&cheese and a southwest Caesar salad"
Examples that would not count as Yes: "my favorite diner food is pancakes"; "whenever I go to a Chinese restaurant I get chicken fried rice and dumplings".
|
2023-08-05T21:10:17
|
2024-01-01T07:59:00
|
2024-01-01T21:19:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7pmsIl6IrETLvezhLpkI
|
Will Spain defeat the Netherlands in their quarter-finals match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Spain wins their quarter-final match and advances and NO if the Netherlands do. A draw is not possible. If the match does not occur for a reason other than forfeit the market resolves N/A.
Close date is set for after the game but the market may resolve as soon as final time. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-05T20:59:51
|
2023-08-11T04:14:40
|
2023-08-11T04:14:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mFPdHkGGFqPVeid5adcJ
|
Will the sun explode before 2025?
|
This market will resolve YES (if manifold somehow survives) in the case that the sun explodes before market close at the end of 2024, otherwise it will resolve NO at that time.
This market is an experiment in measuring Manifold's current 2025 risk-free rate, which I suspect has changed recently.
Update in light of comments: I am referring to the sun exploding in the colloquial sense, not to any other technical sense of the word, where there is a conflict. If the sun is still around in basically the same form it is now at market close, this market will resolve NO.
|
2023-08-05T20:02:54
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:19:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RGizCn6cW87yILYHEeBC
|
Will the "All-In" podcast hosts endorse Vivek Ramaswamy by October?
|
Currently the All-In guys (David Sacks, Jason Calcanis, Chamath, etc.) have been endorsing and fundraising for RFK Jr. Will any publicly switch to Vivek by October 31st?
Two hosts required to endorse Vivek to resolve YES.
Current list: Chamath Palihapitiya
They should state that they are endorsing Vivek, though the word "endorse" isn't a requirement. It should be a statement that clearly indicates they support the candidate beyond mere curiosity or liking their ideas. However, it doesn't have to be exclusive endorsement i.e. they could endorse Vivek without withdrawing their endorsement for RFK.
|
2023-08-05T16:17:12
|
2023-10-16T14:32:46
|
2023-10-16T14:32:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jckYX7wcx5Y4QvsngZpW
|
Will a YouTuber manufacture a room temperature superconductor in 2023?
|
Will a YouTuber such as https://www.youtube.com/@theCodyReeder, https://www.youtube.com/@NileRed, or https://www.youtube.com/@TechIngredients, or any other similar channel, create a room temperature ambient pressure superconductor in 2023 and post a video of the making process?
It doesn't have to be the LK-99 superconductor.
The video must be in English.
I am not an expert, but I will do my best to validate whether the superconductor shown in the video is real. I will accept any help in the comments. I will not bet in this market.
To qualify as a "YouTuber" as opposed to something like a science lab that uploaded a video to YouTube but doesn't regularly post videos:
The channel must have at least 5000 subscribers prior to posting the video.
The channel must have at least 3 videos of educational nature similar to what the above example channels usually post and not related to superconductivity. And at least one of these videos should be uploaded in 2022 or earlier.
|
2023-08-05T14:54:59
|
2023-12-31T12:59:00
|
2023-12-31T13:07:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E3dtvYLijQwXavi3CHPC
|
Will Manchester City win the 2023 FA Community Shield?
|
Resolves YES if Manchester City win the trophy in their match against Arsenal on August 6, 2023.
Resolves NO if Arsenal win.
https://www.thefa.com/competitions/the-fa-community-shield
|
2023-08-05T14:05:58
|
2023-08-06T11:30:00
|
2023-08-06T13:59:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hr5rZTbXONPZ3pb4DAFz
|
Will there be a partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-05T13:05:56
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:09:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-doTe7zPwSFr3v4nvVKPW
|
Will Turkey's Parliament ratify Sweden's entry into NATO before Hungary's?
|
Resolves N/A if neither Parliament goes through with it before market ends at the end of year 2025.
|
2023-08-05T12:53:18
|
2024-01-23T13:28:50
|
2024-01-23T13:28:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qn5N1QPyZW7IzH7IGygs
|
Will Minecraft 1.21 be the End update?
|
The latest update, 1.20 was the Trails & Tales update. A massive End update is expected as one of the dimensions that hasn't been updated yet, but it's unclear if it's being worked on.
Will close when 1.21 theme is announced. Will ONLY be YES if the main theme is the end. Any small updates to the end will not count.
|
2023-08-05T12:49:48
|
2024-06-18T02:06:39
|
2024-06-18T02:06:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O1ZNdhkZFiFLvIyKIdMk
|
Will Shohei Ohtani be voted AL or NL MVP for the 2024 season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-05T11:41:29
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-12-02T06:35:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OBUAwH0BDCs7aILjyThc
|
Will a $2 Billion Mega Millions jackpot be won in the month of August?
|
As long as the jackpot amount reaches $2 billion this will resolve to YES even if the winner takes a lump sum instead of installments.
A winner with a jackpot of anything less than $2 billion by the end of August 2023 will result in a NO.
|
2023-08-05T09:43:32
|
2023-08-09T20:36:44
|
2023-08-09T20:36:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sohsVVUytgye5wvtzuHu
|
Will Congestion Pricing in NYC be enforced by the end of 2024?
|
There has been a long history of pushback and delays since Congestion Pricing was proposed over a decade ago. Will it actually be implemented and enforced next year, or delayed yet again?
Resolves Yes if any drivers are charged Congestion pricing fees between now and the end of 2024. I will still consider it resolved Yes if it is enforced at some point but revoked later. I'll rely on official NYC sources (DOT, etc.) or reputable news articles as evidence.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/7/5/23784467/new-york-city-congestion-pricing-traffic-environmental-review-climate-change-traffic-air-pollution
[link preview]
|
2023-08-05T09:37:50
|
2025-01-01T16:49:44
|
2025-01-01T16:49:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j4GW8TdHmtXPNj8iITfJ
|
Will the President of Niger be released before 1 October 2023?
|
Resolves to "yes" if president of Niger Muhammed Bazum will be released before 1 october 2023
|
2023-08-05T09:26:35
|
2023-10-01T13:59:00
|
2023-10-03T10:20:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-414csTamoTmFS4rdurIe
|
Will a United States Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be impeached and removed before Jan. 20th 2025?
|
Definition of a United States Supreme Court Justice: A United States Supreme Court Justice is defined as an individual who holds a seat on the Supreme Court of the United States as of the creation date of this prediction market question.
Events Included: The events to be considered for resolution include the death, retirement, or the succesful impeachment of a sitting United States Supreme Court Justice. Impeachment should be understood as the formal process of charges being brought against a Justice by the House of Representatives, followed by a successful trial in the Senate.
Time Frame: The prediction market question is focused on events occurring before January 20th, 2025 (Inaugration Day).
Resolution Criteria:
Official Confirmation: The resolution will be based on official and verifiable announcements made by relevant authorities or institutions like an official announcement of the event, such as a statement from the Justice, the Supreme Court, or other authoritative sources.
|
2023-08-05T07:13:28
|
2025-01-20T14:59:00
|
2025-01-23T10:38:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ba7GUbBL8fcesRcsC0Gw
|
Will Sweden lose a match at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-05T05:20:11
|
2023-08-15T06:44:31
|
2023-08-15T06:44:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vZepCTJaakui77miMr2q
|
Will the stock market sell off more than 2% next week?
|
From SPY official 9:30 AM EDT open Monday-SPY 4:00 PM EDT close Friday?
|
2023-08-05T05:05:50
|
2023-08-12T20:59:00
|
2023-08-21T21:54:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5zNhk2On3mHGhxRmVkiB
|
Will England lose a match in the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-05T04:57:00
|
2023-08-20T05:04:25
|
2023-08-20T05:04:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NKFVr2TBjF3W07z67lg0
|
Will Japan lose a match in the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-05T04:53:29
|
2023-08-11T03:52:16
|
2023-08-11T03:52:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CbALpmpm3Zs29CJ02NZU
|
Full levitation of LK-99 will be achieved during August 2023
|
We want full floating LK-99, not this dangling, twisting weirdness! lol Will it happen?! This question will resolve to YES if there is a video from a reputable source that shows a confirmed piece of LK-99 fully levitating over a magnetic source.
|
2023-08-05T04:25:41
|
2023-08-31T23:59:00
|
2023-09-01T07:25:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lAM6gvNB29PaW40Sgs6y
|
Will SpaceX's Starship Second Orbital Test Launch have a successful stage separation?
|
April 20th 2023 launch failed spectacularly 85 seconds into the launch. Will next attempt succeed? Many markets on it but seems there's no market about achieving stage separation.
Elon Musk stated a 50% probability of reaching orbital velocity but would be happy to reach stage separation which didn't happen in the first attempt.
|
2023-08-05T03:45:43
|
2023-11-20T12:20:49
|
2023-11-20T12:20:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-25bw7BmeDTEhQRxmHRdr
|
Is the latest video of a supposed sample of LK-99 exhibiting flux pinning real?
|
Resolves YES if compelling evidence comes to light that the below video supposedly showing a suspended speck of LK-99 (or a slight recipe change thereof) over a magnet, is real - it's at room temperature and pressure, the sample is LK-99 (actually screw it: the sample can be any material at all - there's nothing it can be other than a superconductor if it's real), and the magnet is a regular dipole magnet, there are no tricks or anything misleading about it, it's not CGI.
Evidence can take the form of more, significantly harder-to-fake videos from the same user, independent vouching from reputable sources such as academic physicists who have witnessed it, etc.
Whether the quality of evidence is sufficient to resolve is on my judgement, so I won't bet. I think the video is (very) fake, but I'd love it to be true as much as anybody and promise not to be unreasonable about it.
Resolves NO in a month otherwise, or early if the user publicly admits fakery.
Twitter embed of video, for conveneince (original link below)
[tweet]
Original upload on douyin:
https://www.douyin.com/user/MS4wLjABAAAAJaTuSBArw0c6bK0eI9T1-f_SBoqNbWhBpyF87zp5-iBddzzmt6_GSTHBMoDmolba?modal_id=7263715495256378659&relation=0&vid=7263715495256378659
|
2023-08-05T02:11:52
|
2023-09-04T06:59:00
|
2023-09-04T14:00:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zkNO3XiT0XwEkcqu31MS
|
Will Australia make it to the semi finals in the Women’s Football World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T23:32:32
|
2023-08-12T03:04:53
|
2023-08-12T03:04:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9FihQP4hpTDIcOjYa23n
|
Will Reddit have another major outage in August?
|
Reddit had an brief outage on August 2. Will it have another one this month? I will use https://www.redditstatus.com/uptime to determine if there has been a major outage (i.e., if the site reports that at least one component had a major outage on any day in August, other than 8/2).
|
2023-08-04T20:27:55
|
2023-08-31T21:59:00
|
2023-09-01T11:25:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FRFzDiCqbuTpVsLy0IVV
|
Will Destiny debate Ben Shapiro, Michael Knowles, or Matt Walsh in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T19:16:11
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:08:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aCoGWdD2jZclWltmlVGP
|
Will 'Barbie' gross more worldwide than any other movie released in 2023?
|
This Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve. Barbie must gross the most worldwide of the movies on this list.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/
I will wait for all movies that could get within spitting distance to finish their initial run before resolving.
|
2023-08-04T18:50:09
|
2024-02-03T11:05:32
|
2024-02-03T11:05:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CCeaZjd0kqnQ9EUalzOg
|
Will 'Barbie' gross more domestically than any other movie released in 2023?
|
This Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve. Barbie must have grossed the most (in terms of domestic take) of any movie on this list.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/?sort=domesticGrossToDate
I will wait for all movies that could get within spitting distance to finish their initial run before resolving.
|
2023-08-04T18:47:38
|
2024-01-23T08:54:23
|
2024-01-23T08:54:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ixVU0FdvSapVDwlqOnOz
|
Will Novak Djokovic play in the final of the US Open 2023 tournament?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T18:23:46
|
2023-09-08T15:18:16
|
2023-09-08T15:18:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tIsGvtdiPK5TJzSpDgGw
|
Will Harper Collins publish Richard Hanania’s upcoming book, “The Origins of Woke”
|
Will resolve when consumer copies are received or a statement suggesting "no" is made. The book's release date is scheduled for September 19, 2023.
|
2023-08-04T15:47:39
|
2023-09-19T13:32:04
|
2023-09-19T13:32:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2sclO16eEtccD0Bn9fzT
|
Will Margot Robbie win an Oscar in any category for her Role in Barbie for 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T14:53:37
|
2024-03-10T18:39:00
|
2024-03-10T18:39:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lp5RyDlEAr517imOyPiw
|
Will another Starship launch attempt be made in Q3 2023?
|
Liftoff from the pad required.
Scrubs do not count.
|
2023-08-04T13:46:58
|
2023-10-01T22:59:00
|
2023-10-05T01:35:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YSKJCKKFWIgjrzCUG4bu
|
Was Richard Hanania himself the source for the Richard Hanania hit piece?
|
By Jan 1, 2024, will Richard Hanania publicly admit to
1) directing journalists to any of the claims made
2) providing evidence, such as account names or email information
in the following article:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/richard-hanania-white-supremacist-pseudonym-richard-hoste_n_64c93928e4b021e2f295e817
[link preview]
|
2023-08-04T13:18:05
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:20:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-08WwzJISL9MhJcouKhKZ
|
Will X implement a P2P payments system before EOY 2023?
|
Resolves YES if X (formerly Twitter) enables peer-to-peer transactions through any standard (fiat, crypto, other) before EOY 2023. Resolves NO if no payment system is implemented.
|
2023-08-04T12:44:05
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:22:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uleUpAwPg1EUC8eNWXIw
|
Will a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor (LK-99, or other) be discovered before 2025?
|
The flurry of research following the LK-99 preprints has led to important mechanistic and computational insights into superconductivity. This creates a more tractable combinatorial space for advanced machine-learning models to explore. Even if LK-99 itself doesn't quite reach the threshold, could the insights it has triggered lead quickly to the discovery of better candidates?
|
2023-08-04T11:39:44
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:51:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W3Pzo6Pz6gzbxwEv3vK8
|
Will the U.S. government admit to having engaged in either a UFO coverup or a disinformation campaign before 2024?
|
This market is centered on the recent revelations discussed in an article by The Hill, which suggests two main possibilities regarding the UFO phenomenon: a long-standing coverup of UFO retrieval and reverse-engineering activities by the U.S. government, or a psychological disinformation campaign by elements of the defense and intelligence establishment.
The resolution of this market will be determined by an official statement or admission from the U.S. government regarding their involvement in either of these activities.
Sources: The Hill Article
|
2023-08-04T11:06:33
|
2023-12-31T19:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:16:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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