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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-PvmQoq2oAjUSlNWktZeF
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 7 than it closed on August 4?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
|
2023-08-04T10:58:06
|
2023-08-07T11:00:00
|
2023-08-07T13:05:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SztkrmpSdqrxtDtKsyvc
|
Will Andrew McCalip's LK-99 "levitation" replications turn out to be ferromagnetism?
|
Will resolve if convincing demonstration by credible sources show the "floating" we see here is of ferromagnetic origin: https://twitter.com/andrewmccalip/status/1687497082322788352
Update: 8/6/23
To be clear, this question will resolve to YES if the magnetic behavior in either of the two fleck's in Andrew McCalip's original batches turn out to be of ferromagnetic origin. Flipping the magnet would only rule out a permanent magnet, not all ferromagnetic behavior.
|
2023-08-04T10:08:58
|
2023-08-09T21:29:50
|
2023-08-09T21:29:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TumNXmXn6ZqS9Duqh7BV
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach a new all time high before the next halving in late April 2024?
|
The Bitcoin halving is currently due around Friday Apr 26, 2024, will it hit a new all time high before this date?
According to CoinGecko the ATH for bitcoin was $69,044.77 and amount confirmed over this will resolve this question.
|
2023-08-04T09:29:24
|
2024-03-11T06:56:18
|
2024-03-11T06:56:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-njdHMzTWs3KaniPxatsB
|
Will GPT-5 be released for public usage before January 1st, 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T09:27:31
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:20:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yLIcHGXGIvpf70NnNees
|
Does LK-99 exhibit one-dimensional (1D) superconductivity? (June 2024 resolution by scientific consensus)
|
To be resolved by scientific consensus, as measured by a survey of peer-reviewed papers on June 1, 2024. Papers will be identified by a Google Scholar search for "LK-99 1D superconductivity." If no clear consensus, market resolves to PROB: a weighted average of paper conclusions judged by whether they support a thesis of 1D superconductivity (100%), argue against it (0%), or are neutral (50%), with the weights provided by the 2023 impact factors of the journals they appear in. If no relevant papers have been published, but papers relevant for other LK-99 properties exist, the question resolves NO.
To maintain objectivity in judging, the creator of this market will not trade in it.
|
2023-08-04T09:19:07
|
2024-06-03T16:59:00
|
2024-06-05T13:52:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jSEasl4t2u97KVFYVxEF
|
Will the Chicago Cubs make the playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T09:11:27
|
2023-10-04T20:50:30
|
2023-10-04T20:50:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-87aJQIzxUpCnRq9MlFTi
|
Will there be another US Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T09:03:10
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:51:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8pifYFbFwciEQoJEyFaC
|
Will a sample of LK-99 be auctioned on Ebay in 2023?
|
A sample of LK-99 is valid if it stands up on one end in air when placed over a magnet, as demonstrated in the original video or Andrew's replication. This market resolves yes if the auction closes in 2023 and the sample delivered was valid.
|
2023-08-04T09:01:22
|
2024-01-04T18:02:34
|
2024-01-04T18:02:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7HWc6h8DK8B483Eaf7EO
|
Will ECOWAS initiate violence in Niger before Monday 7th August?
|
ECOWAS has threatened to use force if Bazoum is not back in power by Sunday. Its defence chiefs were ending a days-long meeting in the Nigerian capital Abuja on Friday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-african-bloc-seeks-solution-niger-coup-deadline-nears-2023-08-04/
[link preview]
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) may determine an intervention plan for Niger if the recent coup isn't overturned by the weekend. ECOWAS has taken a firm stance on the coup that displaced President Mohamed Bazoum last week, the seventh such event in West and Central Africa since 2020. Niger's strategic importance is due to its uranium and oil reserves, and its role in the conflict with Islamist rebels. Amidst these developments, Western donors have suspended support and regional countries have imposed economic sanctions. The military junta leading Niger revoked military cooperation agreements with France, a move that France dismissed. ECOWAS has threatened to use force if Bazoum isn't reinstated by Sunday, and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has instructed his government to prepare for options including military deployment. The junta and its leader, Abdourahamane Tiani, have denounced outside interference and vowed to resist any aggression. Support from similar juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso complicates the situation. Russia, whose private mercenary Wagner group has shown support for the coup, reiterated its call for a return to constitutional rule, while Bazoum warned of devastating consequences if the coup succeeds. Therefore, the likelihood of ECOWAS initiating violence before Monday, August 7th, seems high, given the escalating tension and the regional bloc's firm stance.
Acceptable resolution criteria include articles/content from respected news institutions for activities before/on Midnight GMT+1 (West Africa Standard Time) on Monday, Aug 7th.
|
2023-08-04T08:42:51
|
2023-08-07T15:12:12
|
2023-08-07T15:12:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6kqMzmYPdJcI9D8h1kLk
|
Will Erdogan’s party win Istanbul back in 2024 local elections?
|
Resolves to "yes" if AKP's candidate wins the next local elections in Turkey that are scheduled for March 2024
|
2023-08-04T08:13:19
|
2024-04-01T13:59:00
|
2024-04-06T14:46:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vGPenQhJMNLBSCyBFah5
|
Will a candidate in the 2024 US presidential election attempt to overturn or invalidate its result?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T08:04:45
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-25T15:49:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gJDVMqX72kZCKMh59Yl2
|
Will twitter.com start redirecting to x.com before 2024?
|
Resolves when twitter.com itself starts redirecting to x.com (instead of the status quo where x.com redirects to twitter.com)
|
2023-08-04T07:33:35
|
2023-12-31T12:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:16:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XRUewVRpGJXrihkLUYTd
|
Will Netflix mess up the "3 Body Problem"?
|
The Three Body Problem is a popular sci-fi novel by Liu Cixin. Netflix trailer: https://www.netflix.com/nz/title/81024821
This resolves to yes if its IMDB rating is lower than 7 / 10 after a month of being fully released, OR if there is a significant departure from the novel. "Significant Departure" will be judged based of various sources, e.g. reddit, author, etc.
|
2023-08-04T07:28:13
|
2024-04-21T20:59:00
|
2024-04-24T23:01:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ms30gHCwcuvanZhf1qMY
|
Will Belarus openly enter the Russo-Ukrainian war?
|
SBU has reported that Russia is planning to use the Wagner group now partially stationed in Belarus to perform a false-flag attack on two rafineries, trying to drag Belarus into the war.
The question resolves YES if Belarus enters openly the Russo-Ukrainian war by the 1/1/2025. It will resolve NO otherwise.
|
2023-08-04T05:32:00
|
2024-12-31T11:29:45
|
2024-12-31T11:29:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vd7oYRzBvKjjS0eJua1U
|
Is LK-99 more diamagnetic than any known non-superconducting material?
|
Resolves YES if LK-99 is shown, in scientific publications of sufficient quality to produce a consensus among physicists, to be more diamangetic than any known non-superconducting material at room temperature and pressure.
The most diamagnetic material currently known is pyrolytic graphite, with a magnetic susceptibility χ ≈ −4.5×10^−4 in one plane.
This market will resolve YES either:
If LK-99 is superconducting at room temperature and pressure, in which case it would be extremely diamangetic indeed, or
If LK-99 is not superconducting at room temperature and pressure, but has a negative and larger (i.e. more negative) magnetic susceptibility than that of pyrolytic graphite.
Resolves NO at the end of 2024 if no such evidence is forthcoming. I reserve the right to extend the market close date if at the end of 2024, there is new evidence under active consideration.
Update: I'll follow @QuantumObserver's criteria for whether impurities/alternative formulations count as LK-99 for the purposes of this market:
Materials Impurities:
This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution.
Removing impurities (like CuS) is OK.
Increasing impurities that were also present in LK-99 original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99.
Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above.
|
2023-08-04T04:31:33
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:19:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ninFlvGpbVxWfUvWNzuP
|
Will the name of Nintendo's next console include a number?
|
Resolves as YES if the next new console announced by Nintendo includes a number in its name. Otherwise, NO.
The number can be a numeral or word in any language, but must clearly be a number. i.e., "Two", "II", "2", "二" all count, and it can be any number like the "64" in "Nintendo 64". Words that refer to numbers but aren't numbers themselves, such as "Dual" don't count.
Can be a mainline console, whether or not it's following in the Switch series, but can also be a small handheld device if they revive the DS series (for example). Cannot be a revival of a previously released system, however.
Shamelessly stolen from @evergreenemily:
This market is about the next console announced by Nintendo, and will not automatically resolve as YES if they announce a more powerful Switch. This next console must be capable of playing games that cannot be played on a Switch. If Nintendo never releases another console, I will resolve this market as N/A, and I will be sad. If Nintendo has not announced a new console by 12/31/24, this market will have its closing date pushed back.
|
2023-08-04T02:19:15
|
2025-01-16T08:42:12
|
2025-01-16T08:42:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BQVO3YMfZR9nwBnZDIeS
|
2023 NFL: Will the Detroit Lions beat or tie the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season opener?
|
Kickoff at 20:20 ET on 2023-09-07
|
2023-08-04T01:34:07
|
2023-09-07T20:26:03
|
2023-09-07T20:26:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o9DLBgXZZbsDjda1iDB8
|
Will August 2nd be the hottest day in Aug 2023?
|
Resolves YES if the (singularly) hottest day in August 2023 is August 2nd. Resolves NO otherwise (this includes ties). If the data becomes unavailable for any reason. I will try to resolve this as soon as temperature data for the month is complete (which should be Sept. 1), but will wait no longer than the market closing time (Sept. 2) to resolve.
Will resolve according to: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/cfsr_world_t2_day.json
The graph here rounds to 2 decimal places (but I will not be using it for resolution):
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
For quick reference, you can search the JSON for: 17.073,17.038,17.064,17.070
17.070 being July 31.
Question copied from @/parhizj/will-august-3rd-be-the-hottest-day
|
2023-08-04T01:20:53
|
2023-08-31T16:59:00
|
2023-09-01T01:26:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wx3l6mDwnNOEYltsIQK5
|
Does LK-99 float?
|
Can LK-99 be made to levitate above a magnet? (Non-contact levitation). That is, will there exist high quality demonstrations that LK-99 can be suspended above a magnetic setup by Jan 1 2024?
|
2023-08-04T01:04:54
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00
|
2024-01-01T08:07:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oLHLoZmMGx6RVuHm4G1e
|
Will Richard Dawkins speak with Jordan peterson before august 2024?
|
An announcement before the deadline counts, but they have to speak verbally in a dialogue, and it has to last for more than 5 minutes. If they have spoken before the creation of this question without my knowledge, it doesn't count.
|
2023-08-04T00:48:39
|
2024-07-31T14:59:00
|
2024-08-10T15:32:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iqSm3mgj7QOgV78jEEZZ
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next elected President of the United States?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-04T00:21:56
|
2024-11-14T19:02:45
|
2024-11-14T19:02:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4SJdjM7RnTuZG4vlMiEk
|
Will there beat least 1 PK awarded in the 1st half of the Women’s World Cup Round of 16 match between the US & Sweden?
|
This question will resolve to YES if a penalty kick is awarded in the first 45 minutes + stoppage time of the game. The penalty can be awarded to either team and it does not need to be converted.
|
2023-08-03T23:09:35
|
2023-08-06T05:36:26
|
2023-08-06T05:36:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gb66KHfQKZYhirvDnaaq
|
Will the S&P 500 close above 4,500 on Aug 11, 2023
|
Closing price at 4:00pm ET 8/11/23
|
2023-08-03T22:07:09
|
2023-08-11T16:20:17
|
2023-08-11T16:20:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fZmGLyR625SpyegS9jrc
|
Will Stalker 2 get a Metascore greater than 85?
|
If the PC version of Stalker 2 has a metascore greater than 85 one week after launch, resolves to yes.
|
2023-08-03T20:55:29
|
2024-11-27T20:59:00
|
2024-11-28T14:34:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vqDu5TH8gWhgk8sSVMKI
|
Will the Fed raise interest rates at the Sept 2023 meeting?
|
The next FOMC meeting will be held on September 19-20, 2023.
|
2023-08-03T19:11:37
|
2023-09-20T11:21:27
|
2023-09-20T11:21:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7JtxsdW6dGCgWvCnNmeU
|
Will Jordan Love be a top 15 quarterback in the 2023 NFL season?
|
This market will resolve YES if Jordan Love is in the top 15 NFL quarterbacks on in at least 2 of the following 3 metrics: Yards, Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt, and Passer Rating. I will use the regular season Pro-Football-Reference leaderboard for resolution (here is the 2022 page). If Love does not play at all next season I will resolve N/A.
EDIT: One more clarification: Love must qualify for the leaderboard to count as top 15. If he plays but does not qualify this market resolves NO.
Here is the link to the leaderboard used for resolution.
|
2023-08-03T16:47:26
|
2024-01-08T06:29:22
|
2024-01-08T06:29:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bCvBLvQUSZY4uzOXKcwI
|
WIll Donald Trump drop below 50% in the RealClearPolitics GOP Primary polling average before the end of 2023?
|
This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump drops below 50% in RealClearPolitics' polling average at any point before the end of 2023. Otherwise it will resolve to NO.
|
2023-08-03T16:41:03
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:43:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UtCrzYSjeovOP5ZIru2U
|
Will Netherlands win against South Africa on Saturday, August 5, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
|
Netherlands W vs South Africa W
📅 Date: Saturday, August 5, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 02:00
⚽ Teams: Netherlands W vs South Africa W
🏆 Competition: World Cup - Women
🔑 If the match ends in a draw, the market will resolve to NO. Penaltis and extratime are included
🕐 The market closing is set to 120 minutes after the start of the match, but it would resolve early once the match is finished. Good luck!
To make better bets you can search for the match on Google
|
2023-08-03T16:26:03
|
2023-08-05T21:00:00
|
2023-08-06T03:56:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VkUje1vEO9cHpJnDtNN7
|
Will Twitter either be sold or declare bankruptcy by July 2024?
|
twitter, X, etc
sold = elon selling a controlling stake, >50%
being seized for its assets also counts
|
2023-08-03T15:13:33
|
2024-07-01T21:34:26
|
2024-07-01T21:34:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uyuZFxJGj3IaOYlLU8iL
|
Will we see a PS5 Pro in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-03T13:52:27
|
2024-09-10T12:19:47
|
2024-09-10T12:19:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L1lRy8UaP9nnN65WvJm2
|
Will Putin serve the entirety of his current term to 2024 as president?
|
Resolves YES if Putin completes his 4th term, which expires in 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2023-08-03T13:41:48
|
2024-04-25T13:16:55
|
2024-04-25T13:16:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DPoS2l9pj6VPO70sa7gr
|
Will Nintendo release a Switch successor in the 2024 calendar year?
|
(https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/31/23814298/nintendo-switch-sequel-2024-rumor)
|
2023-08-03T13:33:31
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T20:02:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r94eg7GjO2OHRLzqFpPm
|
Will Lando Norris win a race in the 2023 F1 Season?
|
Includes both sprint and full-length races
|
2023-08-03T13:05:06
|
2023-11-26T06:40:08
|
2023-11-26T06:40:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WLakJFEdM3non3bhef3R
|
[COVID origins] Will "Proximal Origin" be retracted before 2025?
|
A petition is circulating to have the paper, "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", published in Nature Medicine in March 2020, retracted.
Some context:
Testimony of main author Kristian Andersen before a congress subcommittee.
Wenstrup report.
Another call for retraction.
Coverage by the Intercept: https://theintercept.com/2023/07/12/covid-documents-house-republicans/ and https://theintercept.com/2023/01/19/covid-origin-nih-emails/
Also covered in Science.
...
I'm borrowing a bit from @jacksonpolack's @/jacksonpolack/will-i-agree-with-nate-silvers-clai For a very critical take on the paper:
https://natesilver.substack.com/p/journalists-should-be-skeptical-of
Here’s the scandal. In March 2020, a group of scientists ... published a paper in Nature Medicine that seemingly contradicted their true beliefs about COVID’s origins and which they knew to be misleading. The paper, “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2”, has been cited more than 5,900 times and was enormously influential in shaping the debate about the origins of COVID-19.
In the Slack and email messages, the authors worked to manipulate the media narrative about COVID-19’s origins and to ensure that their private uncertainty wasn’t conveyed in conversations with reporters. They also thought they were going to get away with it. “The truth is never going to come out ”, wrote Rambaut in one message
...
Resolves YES if an official retraction notice is issued by the authors or by the editors of Nature Medicine (or both), or if the authors publish another letter, comment, or article substantially correcting the relevant claims made in the original piece.
I will not bet in this market.
Related markets:
[markets]
|
2023-08-03T12:29:53
|
2024-12-30T23:59:00
|
2024-12-31T11:08:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-By6zQPW5OoJjAB13gi6k
|
Will an European Team win the FIBA World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-03T11:36:36
|
2023-09-08T08:49:47
|
2023-09-08T08:49:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RlKNFx3jvZKVoismJh9K
|
Will there be more than 8 Atlantic hurricanes by November 30th?
|
Resolves according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Systems.
|
2023-08-03T11:32:42
|
2023-11-30T20:59:00
|
2023-11-30T21:11:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vM8ls6Y7aDCnIm6MXXn9
|
Will MrBeast upload a video by August 6th 2023?
|
This question resolves to 'Yes' if MrBeast uploads a new video to his main channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) by 11:59PM (CET) August 6th 2023.
To furter explain: If by 11:59PM (CET) August 6th 2023 the latest video on MrBeast's channel is still "Train Vs Giant Pit", this question resolves as "No".
|
2023-08-03T10:38:47
|
2023-08-06T03:15:16
|
2023-08-06T03:15:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GvxTDzn35NczA8k4zo5X
|
Will Elon Musk still be the CEO of Tesla by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-03T09:52:40
|
2024-01-01T10:14:52
|
2024-01-01T10:14:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3xQZ9tgP4raASp45kfwi
|
Will Elon Musk say the word LK-99 or "Superconductor*" with his voice in August
|
Before midnight Saturday August 31 PST
He must exactly use one (or more) of these words, spoken aloud with his voice (not AI-generated speech, not a tweet, not text):
LK-99
Superconductor
Superconducting
Supercondictivity
or really any word Superconduct*
He can do this in a twitter space, media interview, or other situation.
I will be very strict in interpreting the resolution. The only way this can resolve yes is if he exactly meets the word-uttering criteria above.
Edit: august 11 - a recording of it must be available
|
2023-08-03T09:52:34
|
2023-09-02T17:10:52
|
2023-09-02T17:10:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UypuJ2bFZqFhyA49kgS8
|
Will Moodys downgrade the US government's credit rating by the end of Q1 2024?
|
Fitch one of the three big credit rating agencies just downgraded US government debt to AA+ from AAA: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/view-fitch-downgrades-us-foreign-currency-ratings-aa-aaa-2023-08-01/
This follows S&P who downgraded the US government's credit rating in 2011
The only remaining big 3 ratings agency which has the US government on the highest credit rating is Moodys.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-03T09:04:21
|
2024-03-31T20:59:59
|
2024-03-31T23:37:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R7KQXJ0iRUKe2AnZSW0B
|
Will Charles Leclerc finish ahead of Carlos Sainz in the 2023 Formula 1 (F1) World Drivers Championship?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-03T09:01:55
|
2023-12-03T21:36:16
|
2023-12-03T21:36:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rB4E7mGJKzsYqqbXawnY
|
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 4 than it closed on August 3?
|
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $29,173.40
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:
1st place - Ṁ3,000
2nd place - Ṁ2,000
3rd place - Ṁ1,000
4th place = Ṁ500
5th place - Ṁ250
@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-03T08:28:09
|
2023-08-04T16:00:00
|
2023-08-04T17:03:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U1zjDK45PTGu7mbOBvel
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 4 than it closed on August 3?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
|
2023-08-03T08:07:12
|
2023-08-04T11:00:00
|
2023-08-04T13:01:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-abR0bwuDXOpzYonFsYan
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 4th August than it closed on 3rd August?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 4th August than it did on Thursday 3rd August?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are some monthly markets for the month of August:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6b2ebca28f2e
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-august-wi
And some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-08-03T07:53:10
|
2023-08-04T08:30:00
|
2023-08-04T08:51:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9QDY8Ab11eM9HxM0rcdn
|
Will Dune 2 world wide box office be higher than Dune 1?
|
[image]Dune: Part Two is an upcoming American epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve, who co-wrote the screenplay with Jon Spaihts. The sequel to Dune (2021), it is the second of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert, and follows Paul Atreides as he unites with the Fremen people of the desert planet Arrakis to win the war against House Harkonnen. Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Zendaya, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem reprise their roles from the first film, with Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, and Léa Seydoux joining the ensemble cast.
|
2023-08-03T06:03:21
|
2024-03-19T04:34:22
|
2024-03-19T04:34:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4jl6XZAP8W99ReOq1IaY
|
Will France defeat Morocco in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if France wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Morocco wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-03T05:53:31
|
2023-08-08T05:54:04
|
2023-08-08T05:54:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uEUsnp5LWY8pMn0msQ9E
|
Will Colombia defeat Jamaica in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Colombia wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Jamaica wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-03T05:51:26
|
2023-08-08T03:02:15
|
2023-08-08T03:02:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WwxR9VVskZ0VeQeHSyyt
|
Will superconductor be confirmed by tomorrow?
|
New superconductor research paper has been released but scientists have bad feelings about it. Will it be confirmed by tomorrow?
|
2023-08-03T04:04:49
|
2023-08-04T13:59:00
|
2023-08-04T14:01:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gt6UQczG0MQVpSoMZHpx
|
Will Arstechnica publish an article about LK-99 within the next 48 hours?
|
Resolves yes iff an article about LK-99 is published on arstechnica.com before Aug 5th 12:00 CEST (noon) (or 06:00 EST).
|
2023-08-03T02:49:31
|
2023-08-04T10:15:15
|
2023-08-04T10:15:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sHOKqHoIHUkIFSpxZVOw
|
Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 21st September meeting?
|
The Bank of England meets on 21st September to set interest rates.
The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.
The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate at 5.25% or lower it
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0599143ef1b0
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0d91564112fa
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-7950eca8e64c
|
2023-08-03T02:23:16
|
2023-09-21T04:09:21
|
2023-09-21T04:09:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8MaWFyY7bAdzr4rf2Z2b
|
Will ChatGPT be mentioned in the 2024 US presidential debates?
|
This question resolves to yes if, during the 2024 US presidential debates, one of the candidates or interviewers says "ChatGPT" or just "GPT" in reference to the language model by OpenAI.
Edit: Clarifying which debates, this is referring to the same presidential debates as mentioned here https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the which are quote "the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States".
If there are no debates, this resolves N/A.
|
2023-08-02T22:47:04
|
2024-11-09T05:46:28
|
2024-11-09T05:46:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-230Z7jEMOWCc26e9Xaez
|
Will DGG raise $42,000 for Against Malaria before Labor Day
|
Will our brave community moobie streamers raise at least $42,000 in total by September 4?
Total raised as of August 2 was $28,400, and the drive began July 6, averaging out to over $14,000 per month thus far. Will the streak continue?
Question will resolve on September 4 based on the Total Raised on the fundraiser page here: https://www.againstmalaria.com/Fundraiser.aspx?FundraiserID=8960
[link preview]
|
2023-08-02T21:54:55
|
2023-09-04T00:00:00
|
2023-09-04T01:36:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kjStmIF6Roptiy37SO5Y
|
Is there a temperature and pressure at which LK-99 is superconducting?
|
Resolves YES if credible evidence establishes that LK-99 is a superconductor, and that evidence is sufficient to create a consensus view among physicists.
This does not require the material to be a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. A demonstration of superconductivity at any temperature and pressure will be sufficient for a YES resolution.
"Superconducting" means whatever physicists understand it to mean at that time, but is generally is expected to involve vanishing DC resistivity, a phase change, and expulsion of all internal magnetic fields. If LK-99 modifies physicists' view of what superconductivity is about, market resolution will account for these modifications rather than apply the current understanding.
Evidence will ideally be in the form of peer-reviewed studies in reputable scientific journals, but other high-quality evidence may be sufficient. Initial evidence from individual sources is not sufficient to resolve YES, it needs to be enough to create a consensus, so resolution will wait to see replications, and broad commentary from physicists in the field regarding its credibility.
Resolves NO at end of 2024 if no such evidence is forthcoming, though I reserve the right to extend the market close date if it appears that recent serious evidence is under active scrutiny at that time.
|
2023-08-02T21:45:30
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:20:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ylkUdBKjAZBHEoED2FmB
|
Will the price of crude oil exceed $100 per barrel at any point in the next 12 months?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T21:22:35
|
2024-08-02T23:59:00
|
2024-08-29T11:25:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qGCbpEIKPBq6ViHyTYAY
|
Will the writers and actors strikes both end before November 2023?
|
This concerns the 2023 Writers Guild and SAG-AFTRA strikes. The question will resolve to "Yes" if both strikes end before November 1, 2023. Strikes are considered to end when union members pass a vote to end the strike.
|
2023-08-02T21:15:12
|
2023-11-01T23:59:00
|
2023-11-02T05:12:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CkwpounJxbOD3xJKDZJN
|
Will the room-temperature superconductor market drop below 30% again?
|
Will it drop below 30% at any point in time from now on?
The specific market in question is "Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?" by Quantum Observer
|
2023-08-02T20:05:22
|
2023-08-03T11:50:51
|
2023-08-03T11:50:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jWQDj82Mq9LeahHp6hIu
|
Is LK-99 a high temperature (>77K) superconductor?
|
Note that this is asking about a weaker claim! This is not the exciting one! Still, as far as I understand this question has not been conclusively answered.
At atmospheric pressure.
This market resolves later than you'd like.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottLawrence/what-is-the-highest-temperature-at)
|
2023-08-02T20:02:59
|
2024-07-01T22:59:00
|
2024-08-31T00:01:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N6PXG2vRmyxXNgBMt6S7
|
Will ‘The Big One’ earthquake occur along the San Andreas Fault line by the end of August ‘23?
|
'The Big One' refers to an earthquake of 7.8 magnitude or above occurring along the San Andreas Fault. If no earthquakes happen that meet these criteria by midnight 08/31/23 then the question will resolve to No.
|
2023-08-02T18:57:48
|
2023-09-01T08:59:00
|
2023-09-01T12:08:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j1RESel8PRKuPAUaY7MB
|
Will ‘The Big One’ earthquake occur along the San Andreas Fault by EOY?
|
'The Big One' refers to an earthquake of 7.8 magnitude or above occurring along the San Andreas Fault. If no earthquakes happen that meet these criteria by midnight 12/31/23 then the question will resolve to No.
|
2023-08-02T18:55:39
|
2024-01-01T07:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:56:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4MJTgHUgYFAj2Q0LAVj4
|
Will “e/acc” (Effective Accelerationism) be the subject of a major TV network news segment in 2023?
|
Context: https://beff.substack.com/p/notes-on-eacc-principles-and-tenets
The e/acc movement gets mentioned on a major televised news program by end of 2023.
Requires a live mention in a news segment on any of the ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, CNN franchises carried by YouTubeTV.
A video clip linked here by me, you, or an AI resolves "Yes".
[link preview]
|
2023-08-02T18:53:52
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:47:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y4ZJThITT0yfWFDp6fHw
|
Will Australia's Indigenous Voice referendum take place in October?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum
Will resolve YES if the Indigenous Voice referendum takes place in October.
Will resolve NO if October passes and the referendum has not taken place, or if the referendum takes place before October has begun.
|
2023-08-02T17:51:43
|
2023-10-14T03:07:21
|
2023-10-14T03:07:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CVleJmeX9nxjtR2mTVnZ
|
Will GPT-5 launch before 1 January 2025?
|
Question will resolve yes if a product by openai is launched with the name "GPT-5" before 1 January 2025.
|
2023-08-02T16:25:15
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-06T15:28:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sxTP72pKjjcVOiin1il2
|
Will the New York Jets win their first Home game versus the Buffalo Bills on Monday September 11, 2023?
|
Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets will begin their 2023 season in primetime at MetLife Stadium with a division clash against the Buffalo Bills on Monday, Sept. 11. The Week 1 contest, which will be played on the 22nd anniversary of 9-11 and air on ESPN/ABC, will kick off at 8:15 p.m.
|
2023-08-02T14:46:08
|
2023-09-13T21:59:00
|
2023-09-23T16:49:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k7ViNuecB7N0al2Qf0K0
|
Will Yudkowsky make a profit on the superconductor market?
|
@EliezerYudkowsky has taken a mix of YES and NO positions. How will they work out for him?
@/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Includes profits from AMM subsidy. Excludes referral bonuses, mana transfers, etc.
[tweet]I will not trade on this market.
|
2023-08-02T14:14:55
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:59:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7n8J9UqjVkeeASTbnzi0
|
Will Oppenheimer Win the Oscars for Best Picture, Best Actor (Cillian Murphy) and Best Director (Christopher Nolan)?
|
Oppenheimer is a 2023 biographical drama film written and directed by Christopher Nolan. It stars Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer and Robert Downey Jr. as Strauss, with the remaining ensemble supporting cast including Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek and Kenneth Branagh.
|
2023-08-02T13:52:44
|
2024-03-10T19:27:56
|
2024-03-10T19:27:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4g0emOpnfP5JC6n6pS9c
|
Will Bronny James be drafted in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft?
|
Bronny James is the son of NBA player Lebron James. Bronny James is a freshman guard at USC. On July 24, 2023 Bronny James suffered a cardiac arrest and he was released from the hospital on July 27, 2023
|
2023-08-02T13:06:56
|
2024-06-26T21:00:00
|
2024-06-27T20:26:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sjk0ODxQjbMIopb8Mphw
|
Midjourney can create correct text in images by June 1 2024
|
On June 1 2024 I will use the best available paid model of midjourney (top paid or best plan available under $100/month) to run this prompt 5 times "A picture of a large overgrown concrete building with a large neon sign that says Pizza on top"
This will produce 20 images (5 mosaics of 4)
If the word Pizza is spelled correctly in at least 10/20 of the resulting images, the claim resolves YES. If not, it's NO. If the claim is tested successfully before this final test, it can immediately resolve YES, but I won't test it more than once per day.
Below is a sample of the images for that prompt today, August 1 2023
These images created today would score 0/20 points.
[image][image][image][image][image]
|
2023-08-02T12:36:08
|
2024-06-01T23:59:00
|
2024-06-02T12:46:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ajra7qLBVLsoxtWS8G8v
|
Will $TSLA close below $250 this week?
|
Excluding after hours, will the closing price of $TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) be below $250?
To resolve as no, the share price must end $250 or higher
|
2023-08-02T12:26:19
|
2023-08-04T12:50:00
|
2023-08-04T13:00:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ITh49p1eP3QBLwZsVgFi
|
Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2023?
|
This list includes: Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden
|
2023-08-02T12:18:01
|
2023-12-31T15:15:41
|
2023-12-31T15:15:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cK511kRwulcy5WuShc1E
|
Will LK-99 break the record for highest temp at which 0 resistance is observed in a material at ambient pressure?
|
Will these results from China (zero resistance at ~110K/ambient pressure but resistance at higher temperatures/ambient pressure) be replicated by others attempting to replicate the original claim of zero resistance at room temperature/ambient pressure? Will this discovery be regarded as the record at ambient pressure regardless of whether or not zero resistance is observed at room temperature/ambient pressure? https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1686805961124855810?s=20
|
2023-08-02T12:01:47
|
2023-09-06T11:10:37
|
2023-09-06T11:10:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xYxlsgkeLWZBRDJIxkK0
|
Will Starfield be a buggy mess on release?
|
Obviously there will be bugs in the game. But this is getting at whether the game will have issues on release similar to, for instance, CDPR's Cyberpunk 2077. Here are some factors that would lead me to resolve YES:
A story comes out in a major newspaper talking about issues in the game or negative reactions to the game's bugginess
Bethesda releases an official apology
A major service announces a special return policy making it easy for dissatisfied customers to return Starfield
Multiple gaming-oriented news sites run multiple stories about major issues in the game (not just low review scores but issues that make the game entirely or partially unplayable)
Ultimately this is a subjective decision, since the exact way things would go is hard to pin down precisely. But I would be looking for signs of actual concrete issues affecting the release of the game, not just normal gamer complaining.
I won't be betting in this market.
|
2023-08-02T11:56:03
|
2023-09-08T04:06:00
|
2023-09-08T04:06:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YUPBSurLLZw6M4lipYDo
|
Will an African nation experience a successful coup d'état in the next three months?
|
This market will resolve YES if there is a successful coup in an African country in the next three months. Success means (1) the former leader is striped of their position, (2) a significant portion of the military sides with the coup or remains neutral, (3) a transitional leader is named, (4) and the coup persists for at least one week. The coup in Niger is excluded.
|
2023-08-02T11:51:02
|
2023-09-20T01:42:26
|
2023-09-20T01:42:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yO8nlAeuF77Yv23PzyNe
|
Will X (fka Twitter) integrate cryptocurrencies before the end of 2023?
|
Resolves to "yes" if X pubically releases features which allow users to hold, buy, sell, earn, and/or pay with 1 or more cryptocurrencies. This includes Bitcoin, ETH, DOGE, Litecoin, or any other similar cryptocurrency. The feature must have been released as "General Availability" (ie, not just a beta user group) by the end of 2023.
|
2023-08-02T11:48:58
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:22:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1leF3HMukzjfjypVhZXk
|
Will the Labour party win the next UK general elections?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T11:46:13
|
2024-07-05T05:39:38
|
2024-07-05T05:39:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KWJ4mtWekUjq3Pa3HmpS
|
Will Lex Fridman interview Donald Trump before the general elections in November 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T11:43:17
|
2024-09-04T00:58:14
|
2024-09-04T00:58:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7VsTJoIX5HMm0j4ZxwA6
|
Will any player score 7 or more goals in the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T11:14:05
|
2023-08-20T05:03:05
|
2023-08-20T05:03:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fMRHX16sAwPqkwm4YW6Q
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 3 than it closed on August 2?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.
|
2023-08-02T10:23:41
|
2023-08-03T11:00:00
|
2023-08-03T13:12:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tzo5sDgdDsoJ960IEFO8
|
Will a goal be scored in the first half? ⚽ Sweden vs United States
|
Women's World Cup - Round of 16
|
2023-08-02T10:20:38
|
2023-08-06T03:38:19
|
2023-08-06T03:38:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U4vtdUFExnxn8R7YWWeX
|
Will a game from the Round of 16 be decided via a penalty shootout at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T10:06:49
|
2023-08-06T04:29:29
|
2023-08-06T04:29:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c8mhvbNcTupNk7gafalR
|
Will the Women's World Cup champion be a first time winner?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T09:56:53
|
2023-08-11T03:50:18
|
2023-08-11T03:50:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B8uI9D4yejMLuqrZkDZl
|
Will there be 20 or more goals scored in the Round of 16 of the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T09:54:11
|
2023-08-08T05:53:11
|
2023-08-08T05:53:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DR4ri6axRbJpJe2YRNe2
|
Will Zelda ToTK win GOTY at the Game Awards 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T09:52:54
|
2023-12-07T20:04:17
|
2023-12-07T20:04:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vw4a6PLVLJqtifFtXeRM
|
Will there be a non-European team in the Women's World Cup final?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T09:49:55
|
2023-08-16T04:54:02
|
2023-08-16T04:54:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iyFjlciZqRbJnIruOqEp
|
Will any player score 6 or more goals in the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T09:45:00
|
2023-08-20T05:06:50
|
2023-08-20T05:06:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bKIZksDls9YSlaRqG1Y4
|
Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?
|
Background: Spurious replications during cold fusion
A "high-credibility spurious replication" is a replication attempt accepted by a substantial fraction of the scientific community, that is later shown to be mistaken or whose substantial claims are later retracted. I will exclude replications that seem crankish (some degree of subjectivity is inevitable). (The standard is such that the conditition would have been met during the cold fusion craze.)
The replication must be published (or pre-print shared) in 2023; the debunking may occur later. I may wait until 2025 to resolve if uncertain...
|
2023-08-02T08:36:37
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:58:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5azWMnTc3eXZ4yhcmTTY
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 3rd August than it closed on 2nd August?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 3rd August than it did on Wednesday 2nd August?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are some monthly markets for the month of August:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6b2ebca28f2e
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-august-wi
And some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-08-02T08:05:30
|
2023-08-03T08:30:00
|
2023-08-03T08:51:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7ub7XcN6mEETNYpiXxgG
|
Will Tether trade for less than 0.8 USD before August 2024 on Kraken?
|
I will use this market https://www.kraken.com/en-gb/prices/tether
Historical price can be seen here: https://cryptowat.ch/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD
Question will resolve on 1st August 2024.
|
2023-08-02T07:51:49
|
2024-08-01T15:59:00
|
2024-08-09T09:00:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ubgsk7PBqNLFzzoxhhSG
|
Will one or more ECOWAS states engage in open military operations related to the coup in Niger before the end of 2023?
|
The ECOWAS states have threatened military intervention to restore the democratically elected government of Niger. This market will resolve YES if there is open conflict in the region related to the coup.
By open conflict, I mean uniformed troops conducting a significant military operation. Small operations like a Special Ops raid won't count, it needs to be a substantial deployment. It also needs to be openly conducted by one or more ECOWAS states. Secret operations or paramilitary operations will not count.
I'm leaving the "related to the coup" part intentionally a bit vague. The spirit of the question is if the instability will lead to conflict. The nature of instability is it can go a lot of ways. For instance, one can imagine scenarios where a proxy war in Niger leads to open conflict between an ECOWAS state and Mali or Burkina Faso. That scenario would still count even if Niger was not directly involved in the fighting. Basically, if an ECOWAS member is putting uniformed troops into combat by the end of the year, it will count, unless some new crisis emerges and the operation is in response to that.
|
2023-08-02T07:45:42
|
2023-12-31T20:36:43
|
2023-12-31T20:36:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VsUCXBUGVMredbnDEoUG
|
Will ChatGPT remain the most popular service in its niche by 2024?
|
Will be measured by Google Trends analytics
|
2023-08-02T06:53:30
|
2023-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:19:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0359LmFauQfDa2Aiusqf
|
Will Nvidia's share price break $500 in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T06:48:58
|
2023-08-24T08:04:22
|
2023-08-24T08:04:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YzMJoQDJCxjYHMFuJ3Lb
|
Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about AI extinction risks before 2025?
|
This market is about the reaction of the White House Press Secretary when asked about AI extinction risks. The question is whether the Press Secretary will giggle during a press conference when asked about these risks before the end of 2024.
Example questions that can be made during the press conference include:
1. "Is the White House preparing for a potential AI apocalypse?"
2. "Does the White House believe that AI could wipe out humanity?"
3. "Is the White House concerned that AI might kill us all?"
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to 'Yes' if there is credible video evidence or multiple reliable reports from news outlets indicating that the Press Secretary giggled when asked about AI extinction risks in a press conference before 2025. The market will resolve to 'No' otherwise.
This question includes any type of dismissive laughter or response, not just giggles specifically. Examples that would count are chuckles, snickers, scoffs, sarcastic belly laughs, patronizing cackles, clicking one's tongue disapprovingly, and even eye rolls.
The key element is using laughter, vocal sounds, or facial expressions to communicate dismissal, sarcasm, contempt, irony, or disbelief rather than sincerely finding something funny. So an exaggerated eye roll in response to something seen as absurd or worthy of ridicule would count as a dismissive response.
Other examples include:
A chuckle followed by a sarcastic retort
A snicker expressing contempt
A scoff showing scorn
Clicking one's tongue in disbelief
An eye roll after hearing something seen as ridiculous
The tone and context convey the dismissiveness, rather than just the specific type of laugh or response. In summary, any type of dismissive laughter, vocal utterance, or facial expression like eye rolls would apply as examples of dismissive responses.
|
2023-08-02T06:01:55
|
2024-12-31T19:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:59:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6WcrPKJMH8obSuCzZnk0
|
Will Each Team Score? ⚽ Sweden vs United States
|
Women's World Cup
8/6 Match
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
Extra time included, but not penalty shootout.
|
2023-08-02T05:22:47
|
2023-08-06T04:28:42
|
2023-08-06T04:28:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9ybdcKP1PKgveJCCTUl8
|
Will Sweden beat the United States at the Women's World Cup?
|
2023-08-02T05:20:41
|
2023-08-06T04:46:37
|
2023-08-06T04:46:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
|
mani-0UC3yIgzkEB6yQeO4IZO
|
Will there be another hat-trick scored at the Women's World Cup?
|
Ary Borges of Brazil got the first one.
Sophie Roman Haug of Norway got the second.
Kadidiatou Diani of France got the third.
Will there be another one?
|
2023-08-02T05:15:35
|
2023-08-20T05:03:37
|
2023-08-20T05:03:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MHOiBRwNmOuzFjybm7s3
|
Will Hikaru win his first three matches in the FIDE Chess World Cup 2023?
|
This covers the matches, not individual games, specifically R2, R3, R4 in the tournament.
|
2023-08-02T04:01:59
|
2023-08-11T06:59:00
|
2023-08-12T01:12:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zAYmnsKUQm6tQi9GD4ZA
|
Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?
|
Yet another superconductor market. Criteria:
"Room temperature" (above 0C)
"ambient pressure" (below 1 megapascal, i.e. less than 10 atmospheres)
is proven to be a superconductor of some classification
is either NOT CuO25P6Pb9 or is a different isomer or allotrope than the synthesized material called "LK-99"
nonetheless is clearly based on the strategy of combining lanarkite with copper phosphide and baking it, using at least 3 of 4 of lead oxide, lead sulfate, copper, and phosphorus, at no less than 500C
Resolution is decided independently of whether LK-99 is proven to have superconducting properties.
|
2023-08-02T03:46:28
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:00:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u1EGhefYJdSUbN5SdCcx
|
Will Sweden defeat the United States in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Sweden wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if United States wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-02T02:14:42
|
2023-08-06T04:45:06
|
2023-08-06T04:45:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hp3nNI9fGa10131ZADhL
|
Will Rust remain the most loved/admired programming language according to the 2024 StackOverflow Developer Survey?
|
While they adjusted the name from "most loved" to "most admired" in 2023, it remains roughly the same essential category: people who used the programming language and want to use it again, which is not the same as people who would like to use the language.
Market resolves by 2025-1-1 or whenever StackOverflow publishes the results of the survey, whichever comes first. If someone buys StackOverflow and renames it to something like "WhyWouldYouThrowAwayAllThatBrandingAndClout.com", the question still resolves if they run the survey and publish the results.
|
2023-08-02T02:11:41
|
2024-07-29T14:07:42
|
2024-07-29T14:07:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cn1Eqo1hzrtcNHkJTYCX
|
Will Barbie gross $1.2 billion worldwide by the end of 2024?
|
The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $795 million worldwide.
It looks assured to be the second film of the year (after the Super Mario Bros Movie) to hit the Billon Dollar mark:
@/WilliamMcCathie/will-barbie-gross-more-than-1-billi
Will it keep going and hit $1.2 billion?
I will use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source. If the worldwide total hits $1.2 billion (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the year and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.
(Edit - mentioning 2024 rather than 2023 in the title of this market was a typo, but since people have already been betting I will stick to the letter of the market and only resolve this as NO if it fails to reach $1.2 billion by the end of 2024 rather than 2023. Though figures from the last few days make it look like it will hit that number pretty easily and this won't be an issue!)
|
2023-08-02T02:05:34
|
2023-08-19T05:54:33
|
2023-08-19T05:54:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3SVxXaAkGT3pmOWXWhQW
|
Will Solana hit $40 before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-02T01:52:31
|
2023-11-01T23:39:07
|
2023-11-01T23:39:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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