id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-lqQpaXdTvUPRWLF1xUuf | London Breed is re-elected Mayor of San Francisco in 2024 | On November 5, 2024, San Francisco will hold a mayoral election. This market resolves to YES if current Mayor London Breed is re-elected Mayor.
If London Breed does not appear on the ballot, this market will resolve to no. If Breed is ineligible for office (due to death or changing residence, for example) but is still... | 2023-08-01T23:54:34 | 2024-11-10T13:42:04 | 2024-11-10T13:42:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6GkyIEdA1EkWfyDtCRLb | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open 2023 tournament? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T22:56:13 | 2023-09-08T19:43:04 | 2023-09-08T19:43:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SEjkLQOHTVPBMKMmiL28 | Will the Mega Millions $1.25 billion jackpot be won on Friday, 8/4? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T22:37:28 | 2023-08-05T20:59:00 | 2023-08-06T09:09:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qK8bHwqJFfLN3eXX24q3 | Will GPT-5 be released to the public by EOY? | Resolves YES if there is a consumer-facing interface to an OpenAI model called GPT5 on or before Dec 31, 2023.
Will also resolve YES for a public beta (involving people not affiliated with OpenAI). | 2023-08-01T21:13:48 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:22:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dNBjfamBuXEqkSXD3c4n | Will a reusable orbital rocket booster be re-flown by a company other than SpaceX before 2025? | A non-SpaceX booster which has been recovered after an orbital launch must fly a second orbital mission before Jan 1, 2025, for this market to resolve YES. Candidate vehicles for such a mission may include Electron or New Glenn. | 2023-08-01T21:05:01 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-05T15:27:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y6OhghRXuTn2fOEiYiXb | Will Victor Wembanyama win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award for the 2023-24 season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T20:31:16 | 2024-05-06T16:01:21 | 2024-05-06T16:01:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OEnb6uiav6avJuuiQBTC | Will bitcoin close above $29,695 on September 1, 2023? | Close for August 1 was $29,695
Will it go up or down by September? | 2023-08-01T20:09:47 | 2023-09-02T21:59:00 | 2023-09-03T10:16:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uvNc6LHF2VOhmWaa1gge | Will The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T19:31:38 | 2023-12-07T20:11:19 | 2023-12-07T20:11:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NWRHn54dNbuUbhLmhvZT | Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of Oct 2023? | Resolution under the same criteria as
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
[link preview] | 2023-08-01T19:07:49 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-11-02T04:56:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0LCwliA5wsrGD9dXxgwN | Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of Sep 2023? | Resolution under the same criteria as
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
[link preview] | 2023-08-01T19:07:31 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-04T13:09:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-llNu0dXghMRWRrFTUSaz | Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of August 2023? | Resolution under the same criteria as
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
[link preview] | 2023-08-01T19:07:06 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-09-01T06:16:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2CRcGAb3v76yfku44ugY | Will August 3rd be the hottest day in Aug 2023? | Resolves YES if the (singularly) hottest day in August 2023 is August 3rd. Resolves NO otherwise (this includes ties). If the data becomes unavailable for any reason, it will resolve N/A if and only if there is no temperature data for August 3rd available prior to September 2. I will try to resolve this as soon as temp... | 2023-08-01T18:27:54 | 2023-08-04T00:59:31 | 2023-08-04T00:59:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gz28I4BjJuFDb6ezeVcw | [100M subsidy] Will the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike be resolved before 2023 ends? | This market will resolve to YES if major news publications report that a deal has been reached. The major news companies need to report this news before 2024-01-01 00:00 pacific coast time (PST). For example, if a deal is reached at 11pm on 2023-12-31 but a major news publication does not report on it until the followi... | 2023-08-01T17:34:52 | 2023-12-05T19:40:35 | 2023-12-05T19:40:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IrMAjjfxDEKzYBjRvOtq | Will Australia win the FIFA Women's World Cup in 2023? | Yes/No. Will the Australian Women's soccer team (known as the 'Matildas') win the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023? | 2023-08-01T17:16:33 | 2023-08-16T05:02:15 | 2023-08-16T05:02:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L7pS83AxLgr0OTC2h4F5 | Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 20? (after the Jan 6 indictment) | Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 20 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/p... | 2023-08-01T16:19:19 | 2023-08-14T20:00:52 | 2023-08-14T20:00:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UoQWa68ETbNgcFxl7pTR | Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 6? (after the Jan 6 indictment) | Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 6 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/po... | 2023-08-01T16:18:55 | 2023-08-06T20:59:00 | 2023-08-07T05:29:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0tDi58HufD6nrjcptplN | Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 13? (after the Jan 6 indictment) | Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 13 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/p... | 2023-08-01T16:18:24 | 2023-08-13T20:59:00 | 2023-08-14T06:40:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1yYST3yGtxp3TCfbyBad | Will Elon Musk tweet about Manifold in 2023? | Or xeet, as the case may be.
"Tweet about" means (non-exhaustively) linking to Manifold in any way (including our newsletter), sharing an image of a Manifold market, mentioning Manifold directly by name, or dicussing prediction markets in a way where it's obvious he's talking about Manifold (versus another platform).... | 2023-08-01T15:56:34 | 2024-01-01T15:57:14 | 2024-01-01T15:57:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z5HQ2RGsnDaXKY9OKVMY | Will there be products utilizing room-tempature, ambient-pressure superconductors by the end of 2024? | Proof of any physical product, for any market, available and for sale to any group and physically containing LK-99 or any other room temp ambient pressure superconductor by end of 2024--linked in a comment here by me or any other person or artifical intelligence resolves "Yes". | 2023-08-01T15:19:14 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:07:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cDvjC9xpstSNO8V7LZ2l | Will Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz end in a decision? | Jake Paul (6-1) and Nate Diaz (0-0) are scheduled to have a professional boxing match on August 5th, 2023 in Dallas, Texas, USA.
If the fight ends in a decision or technical decision, this question will resolve YES.
If the fight ends in a KO, TKO, retirement, or DQ, this question will resolve NO.
If the bout is dec... | 2023-08-01T12:59:27 | 2023-08-05T22:07:53 | 2023-08-05T22:07:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v9CbRorFSTyvYR6fLasj | Will Jake Paul beat Nate Diaz? | Jake Paul (6-1) and Nate Diaz (0-0) are scheduled to have a professional boxing match on August 5th, 2023 in Dallas, Texas, USA.
If Jake Paul wins, this question will resolve YES.
If Nate Diaz wins, or if the fight ends in a draw, this question will resolve NO.
If the bout is declared a No Contest on the night, or ... | 2023-08-01T12:55:39 | 2023-08-05T22:10:46 | 2023-08-05T22:10:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2n1uUbTLEwY1pylD5fUj | Will we have multiple, replicated room temperature, ambient pressure superconducting substances by end of 2023? | More than one distinct substance with multiple claims of replication.
Approaches must not be considered LK-99. | 2023-08-01T12:18:34 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T19:11:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cx5WCIssf2ILvKIqDKFG | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T11:46:20 | 2024-11-06T10:29:00 | 2024-11-06T19:06:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3LtkEqqJkGu3FmQmFMKK | Will xkcd publish a comic about superconductors before Aug 8th 2023? | Resolves to YES iff xkcd publishes a comic that mentions superconductors, or is directly related to superconductors, or if any reasonable explanation of the comic (for example on explainxkcd.com) refers to superconductors.
Image titletext is considered a part of the comic.
Any comic mentioning superconductors publish... | 2023-08-01T11:07:12 | 2023-08-07T15:02:10 | 2023-08-07T15:02:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VyIufG95GGcVDSzJZXfC | Will Ludwig Ahgren appear on Jet Lag before 2025? | Resolves YES if Ludwig appears on Jet Lag: The Game as a guest between now and the start of 2025. Also resolves YES if Ludwig has a John Green style cameo on Jet Lag: The Game between now and the start of 2025, or if Ludwig and the Jet Lag Crew film a Tom Scott Plus style one-off for his youtube channel or similar betw... | 2023-08-01T10:54:06 | 2025-01-01T21:59:00 | 2025-01-02T01:01:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SVkFRbP3c7yrZGhrKgEs | Will destiny reach 700k subscribers in August? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
@/CourierSix/will-destiny-reach-750k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-f62d9ac83d07@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-706k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-703k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-702k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-desti... | 2023-08-01T10:46:33 | 2023-08-29T04:27:10 | 2023-08-29T04:27:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1VIgJ7AeAcl2JcGAeFbp | Will the Crimean bridge (Kerch bridge) be attacked once again by Ukraine by 2024? | Famous for having been hit twice (even if the amount of damage was not catastrophic), news reports of the Kerch bridge being attacked are widely shared within Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia may well step up their security of the bridge rendering future attacks harder.
If by the end of the year the BBC does not rep... | 2023-08-01T10:37:04 | 2023-08-13T00:07:44 | 2023-08-13T00:07:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aKUUQ0PjOFRbIl46d8W7 | Will Moscow be hit by another drone by the end of the week? | For this to be true, I will await for the BBC news to report that another building has been hit by a(n explosive) drone.
EDIT 02/08: By 'another building', I in fact meant any building in Moscow, which could be the same skyscraper yet again.
EDIT 05/08: The week ends 12am Monday 07th Moscow time. | 2023-08-01T10:31:54 | 2023-08-06T15:42:31 | 2023-08-06T15:42:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lf5n9Zf7P72IpTC5LQE5 | Will Chris Nolan win Best Director at the Oscar's for Oppenheimer? | Nolan has had his films nominated for various awards, but will be take the top award? | 2023-08-01T10:23:56 | 2024-03-10T16:59:00 | 2024-03-17T12:14:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fwy1XLQ7JH7jldW95Dny | WIll LK-99 have been convincingly debunked or proven by august 12th? | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre\n\nIf, before august 12, the linked market falls below 4% or rises above 96% and stays there for more than 6 hours, this market resolves YES. Else resolves NO.\n\n[link preview]" | 2023-08-01T09:36:25 | 2023-08-12T12:43:07 | 2023-08-12T12:43:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FRGZBwfCpYZcVsYpDFhq | (M100 SUBSIDY) Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before september? | Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as th... | 2023-08-01T09:26:17 | 2023-08-30T20:59:00 | 2023-08-30T23:19:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZUFpQfuYz7HGewIdV34l | Will the BBC News site publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week? | Given the enormous amount of hype about LK-99 in so many online spaces including Manifold, I have been very surprised to see the lack of coverage in most mainstream media.
As far as I can tell, at time of writing there has been no coverage at all of LK-99 in the Guardian, the Economist or the BBC.
Will the BBC publis... | 2023-08-01T09:01:26 | 2023-08-08T14:00:00 | 2023-08-08T14:28:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2KMfwYnx32aniIxtTZCJ | Will the Economist publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week? | Given the enormous amount of hype about LK-99 in so many online spaces including Manifold, I have been very surprised to see the lack of coverage in most mainstream media.
As far as I can tell, at time of writing there has been no coverage at all of LK-99 in the Guardian, the Economist or the BBC.
Will the Economist ... | 2023-08-01T08:57:14 | 2023-08-03T13:33:19 | 2023-08-03T13:33:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4oqBU4zDxNJsLWzyNtVQ | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of March 2024? | Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Go... | 2023-08-01T08:55:22 | 2024-03-30T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T07:05:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-toBk05EDPzD7lC1qUNnX | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of February 2024? | Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Go... | 2023-08-01T08:54:53 | 2024-02-29T20:59:00 | 2024-02-29T21:06:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-txpmi2JdlMA680zQYoDD | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of January 2024? | Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Go... | 2023-08-01T08:54:03 | 2024-01-31T20:59:00 | 2024-02-01T00:33:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mXYT04DQbWH2wfl0WxLN | Will the Guardian publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week? | Given the enormous amount of hype about LK-99 in so many online spaces including Manifold, I have been very surprised to see the lack of coverage in most mainstream media.
As far as I can tell, at time of writing there has been no coverage at all of LK-99 in the Guardian, the Economist or the BBC.
Will the Guardian p... | 2023-08-01T08:51:18 | 2023-08-08T14:00:00 | 2023-08-08T14:41:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MUiZX9cHXXVrHygYvKYM | Will the Dow Jones (DJI) close higher on August 2nd than it closed on August 1st? [Ṁana Prize Leaderboard] | DJI closes at 4pm ET. Predictions close at 2pm ET.
Previous Close:
[image]
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; ... | 2023-08-01T08:31:51 | 2023-08-02T11:00:00 | 2023-08-02T13:15:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kphkIrlmHjGcCssSiHdi | (M1000 SUBSIDY) Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2024? | Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as th... | 2023-08-01T08:29:13 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T22:02:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9xtWdMEEWXPhgE1dgP2C | Will the superconductor dudes shut up by the end of August. | Condition Sc and lk99 related tags are 0<x<500 tweets by August end. | 2023-08-01T08:25:38 | 2023-08-15T10:39:12 | 2023-08-15T10:39:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yzUE8evpqFLldwYrXBny | Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 100 against the USD before the end of October 2023? | Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 100 is enough.
The current spot price (1 Aug 2023) is around 92 against the USD (the higher the fx rate, the weaker the Ruble) | 2023-08-01T08:04:06 | 2023-08-14T16:10:07 | 2023-08-14T16:10:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LZ2aXE9pn2zsYd1FKBgl | Will the current Prime Minister of Belgium be replaced before the end of 2024? | The current Belgian Prime Minister is Mr. Alexander De Croo, since 1 Oct 2020.
Federal elections are scheduled to be held in Belgium on 9 June 2024.
| 2023-08-01T07:43:25 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:17:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TxiU4O0OXFaH7zGor4tw | Will Google's Gemini LLM have qualitatively different capabilities to GPT-4? | Will it e.g. have planning built in? Or more deeply embedded tool use? Or different multi-modal capabilities?
Resolves to NO if looks like increment on GPT-4 with just vision as extra mode | 2023-08-01T07:15:25 | 2023-12-06T13:42:01 | 2023-12-06T13:42:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SouDgLl8wNnsPr6rSSqZ | Will any European country have changed its capital before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T07:15:01 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:17:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r50e9PwwPisAdCrAfmqK | Will Google's Gemini [Ultra] LLM be released in 2023? | released = generally available to the public e.g. via Bard or something like it
Dec 6th update: Gemini Ultra model is what this means. Not pro or nano | 2023-08-01T07:11:07 | 2023-12-31T15:25:16 | 2023-12-31T15:25:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PeQ9TfUGVhhaS4zGK014 | Bitcoin will be back to 45000$ in next 365 days (due to 2024-08-01) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T06:42:21 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-01-02T07:09:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uGzkNCl4h4BrLXt3RTuP | Will Australia defeat Denmark in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if Australia wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Denmark wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market. | 2023-08-01T06:11:20 | 2023-08-07T05:24:31 | 2023-08-07T05:24:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xwe6MUqsVXtMGwyUq6su | Will England defeat Nigeria in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if England wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Nigeria wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market. | 2023-08-01T06:09:22 | 2023-08-07T03:22:27 | 2023-08-07T03:22:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oH6XqTzhHlAd3F5uR0JO | Will Bluesky survive past 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T06:08:33 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T08:25:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LNcYn8SdLzhFgdBNBwlL | Will X (fka Twitter) implement some form of prediction markets by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-08-01T05:20:51 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:11:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UBDWYiarWJcYr5weEKE5 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18170/commercial-use-of-room-temp-superconductor/
Copy of Metaculus's resolution criteria:
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application... | 2023-08-01T05:03:03 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:15:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gDb2c6WP5y7c3ISLeKzJ | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room temp superconductivity in LK-99? | Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18177/room-temp-superconductor-replicated-by-2025/
Copy of Metaculus's resolution criteria:
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
This question will res... | 2023-08-01T05:00:42 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-10T19:04:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-21riJQqp2mglN7t2fjUN | Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before August 10, 2023? | Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
[link preview] | 2023-08-01T03:39:18 | 2023-08-10T09:59:00 | 2023-08-11T05:27:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-deKpnQcGX28e3AlV0yZK | August 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000? | If in August 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-08-01T02:51:12 | 2023-08-31T14:59:00 | 2023-09-01T02:42:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QlJU5y6ebsa3LulYJ1fa | Will Bitcoin (BTC) close August higher than it opened? | August 1st Open: $29,233
vs
August 30th Close... resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data#panel
[link preview] | 2023-08-01T02:43:09 | 2023-09-01T02:44:23 | 2023-09-01T02:44:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zGPYUdr2MOdPFKxfSclN | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 land successfully? | Their last mission Chandrayaan-2 couldn't land (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2#Loss_of_Vikram). On 1st August, it changed the trajectory to escape Earth orbit. It will enter Lunar orbit on 5th August. It is scheduled to land on 24th August 17:47 IST.
Mission details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandray... | 2023-07-31T23:43:28 | 2023-08-23T05:33:56 | 2023-08-23T05:33:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WH0IcolValuX1i1v6avO | Will the S&P 500 increase in August 2023? | Will the S&P 500 close at 4588.96 or higher on 2023-08-31 ()?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-by-2-or-mo
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level from January to July 2023
4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/... | 2023-07-31T23:18:57 | 2023-08-31T17:00:00 | 2023-08-31T17:50:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PHhFV1btQtqbFnHmnhXh | Will the Pfizer covid-19 vaccine get federally banned in the US by 2025 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-31T23:18:15 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T00:22:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O7l0vZTwpkBoVRfzZ8mc | Will the S&P 500 increase by 2% or more in August 2023? | Will the S&P 500 close at 4680.7392 or higher on 2023-08-31 (4507.66)?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-august
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level from January to July 2023
4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96
https://www.wsj.com/market-data... | 2023-07-31T23:18:15 | 2023-08-31T17:00:00 | 2023-08-31T17:51:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-77oZT4JXAuNAAJ8JwbKt | Will users be able to browse X (formerly Twitter) on the x.com domain on September the 1st, 2023? | Elon Must has recently begun re-branding Twitter to X. At the moment, x.com re-directs visitors to twitter.com. The question is whether users will be able to use X on the x.com URI itself (rather than being re-directed) on September the 1st, 2023. | 2023-07-31T21:36:38 | 2023-09-01T04:59:00 | 2023-09-01T05:03:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KYS82zlMOCrLjtlj3abv | Will US troops participate in a military intervention in Niger? | In the next month, will US troops participate in a military intervention or provide material support to a military intervention intended to oust a military-backed coup in Niger? The US has troops stationed in Niger on mission to fight extremist militias with Niger and regional forces. The Economic Community of West Afr... | 2023-07-31T20:38:47 | 2023-08-30T23:59:00 | 2023-08-31T00:19:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5yW0G97WdmEVKNrrUqTi | Will Donald Trump win every contest in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primary? | This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump finishes in first place in every nominating contest of the 2024 Republican Party presidential primary. If Trump finishes second or lower in any contest, this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-07-31T20:26:40 | 2024-03-03T17:32:52 | 2024-03-03T17:33:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aZoi58M1THCzoyTtMoyS | Will Japan defeat Norway in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if Japan wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Norway wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market. | 2023-07-31T18:01:08 | 2023-08-05T02:55:56 | 2023-08-05T02:55:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dwrP0PRKITo9jIi8n746 | Will Switzerland defeat Spain in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if Switzerland wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Spain wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market. | 2023-07-31T17:58:14 | 2023-08-04T23:55:01 | 2023-08-04T23:55:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nDBiydBPl3CjlNYubpvF | Will the US reschedule cannabis by the end of 2024? | Yes means that the US reschedules cannabis (marijuana) to be other than Schedule 1, or deschedules it entirely.
No means that cannabis remains Schedule 1.
The bill must have passed and been signed by the president if the action is legislative. | 2023-07-31T16:00:26 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:25:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WbW0xG57jHoDdvaDm0Nm | Will Barbenheimer overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens in domestic box office records? | Star Wars: The Force Awakens is the top-grossing film in domestic box office records, with total receipts of $936,662,225 according to BoxOfficeMojo. For the purposes of this market, "Barbenheimer" represents the combined domestic box office grosses of 'Barbie' (2023) and 'Oppenheimer' (2023) on BoxOfficeMojo.
This ma... | 2023-07-31T15:16:01 | 2023-09-13T20:03:03 | 2023-09-13T20:03:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6kGVzjOpIC83OlhYoMnK | Will $TSLA close above $300 on September 1st, 2023? | Will resolve to yes if the closing price on September 1st 2023 of $TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) exceeds $300. Will resolve to no otherwise | 2023-07-31T15:08:40 | 2023-09-01T14:59:00 | 2023-09-01T21:16:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UsmPg2BVhRNLLAm9vYQl | Will the US Fed announce increase in interest rates on Sep 20? | The board of US Federal Reserve will meet on Sep 19-20 to discuss the monetary policy. In the last meeting the rates were hiked by 25 bps (Link to News report). | 2023-07-31T15:05:52 | 2023-09-19T23:59:00 | 2023-09-20T16:05:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qk5DEPOkZyxCmmhcRjgU | Will a high-ranking U.S. official deny "UFOs = aliens" this year? | This market is based on the premise that a high-ranking U.S. official will deny the idea that Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) are related to extraterrestrial life within this year. A denial should be as explicit as saying "we should not take the idea of extraterrestrial influence seriously", or similar remarks.
Fo... | 2023-07-31T14:43:43 | 2023-12-31T19:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:18:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fm13WYzSwkJioltSfock | Ukraine - Will at least 1 of these cities be liberated by the end of August? | Svatove, Lysychans'k, Donetsk, Volnovakha, Polohy, Tokmak, Vasylivka
if there's still fighting ongoing inside the city it will not count
[image] | 2023-07-31T14:31:05 | 2023-08-31T11:00:00 | 2023-08-31T11:07:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LSWTz9DxAUQSnO0w6WDI | Will TMNT: Mutant Mayhem gross $37,000,000 or more on opening weekend? | YES Condition:
TMNT: Mutant Mayhem must gross 37 million or more for it's box office weekend
NO Condition:
TMNT: Mutant Mayhem must gross $36,999,999.99 or less.
This market CLOSES: August 6th, 2023 11:59 PM ET.
This market RESOLVES: August 8th, 2023 11:59 PM ET OR when Box Office Mojo releases the final official... | 2023-07-31T13:50:24 | 2023-08-06T20:59:00 | 2023-08-07T16:03:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lhUfDggS5I1qwfY2QNor | Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024? | Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered).
At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue. | 2023-07-31T13:40:00 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:32:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uzJtSYuT51Xia9Wyrbf8 | Will AAPL reach $205.87 USD between now and the end of August? | YES Requirement:
If AAPL reaches 205.87 USD at any time before the end of August.
NO Requirement:
If AAPL does not reach 205.87 USD before the end of August.
Why 205.87?
It's approximately a 3.25T USD market cap at that price based on the reported amount of shares by Apple. The current market cap is 3T USD.
Resolv... | 2023-07-31T13:37:08 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-08-31T21:38:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8EjdV2AjLBnkAdeEw8YB | Will Bayern Munich beat Liverpool? | Club Friendly on Aug 2 | 2023-07-31T13:32:57 | 2023-08-02T06:30:00 | 2023-08-02T07:56:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-94GdtAEgn3mPQ6vDrFEM | Will Twitter's logo continue to be an X for the whole of the rest of 2023? | A week ago, Twitter changed their logo to be a black stylised X on a white background. There has been a sutble update to the look of this logo, but it is still an X.
At present, the market believes that there is a very high chance that this logo will stick around for a while - traders think there's more than a 90% cha... | 2023-07-31T12:21:59 | 2024-01-01T00:41:41 | 2024-01-01T00:41:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cpPo1vsJCcWF5UK0V4Ex | Will Starfield be delayed before its September 6, 2023 release date? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-31T11:57:37 | 2023-09-01T17:24:27 | 2023-09-01T17:24:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vN5h8xyuFnBQG3ppEtMw | [Ṁ200 subsidy] Will iPhone sales in 2023 exceed sales in 2022? | In 2015, iPhone sales reached a peak at 231.2 million units sold. The number of sales fluctuated until it reached a new peak in 2021, with 242 million units sold. However, in 2022, sales declined to 232.2 million units.
https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/
[link preview]
This autumn, the various mo... | 2023-07-31T11:49:49 | 2024-02-07T03:30:00 | 2024-02-07T04:58:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PTwfKYddnRmFOWtKNY7m | North Korea nuke by EOY 2023? | *This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic People's Public of Korea (North Korea) detonates a nuclear device i... | 2023-07-31T11:23:04 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-04T10:56:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6ncOUA1RjVRZCm2daCdl | Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | *This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Super... | 2023-07-31T11:19:26 | 2024-01-01T13:20:30 | 2024-01-01T13:20:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QuT8R4cuBREOdh6gi4Bd | Will Elon Musk mention LK-99 or Superconductors this week? | Before midnight Saturday August 5th pst
Mentions in a tweet, twitter "post" (ugh) or interview or something verifiable.
Counts if he mentions "superconductivity" or refers clearly to new south korean physics research.
Also counts if he replies to a post about the LK-99 reports | 2023-07-31T11:10:09 | 2023-08-03T09:45:04 | 2023-08-03T09:45:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MKR4aFSMFuozL1jLWAhs | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1? | [From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets]
*This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This question will resolve to “Yes” if the Institute for the Study of War Map s... | 2023-07-31T10:58:58 | 2023-11-01T20:59:00 | 2023-11-24T23:46:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oQCLm3OGngWaoURZBhDE | Will Russia & Ukraine declare a ceasefire by EOY 2023? | [From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets currently posted on Polymarket]
*This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an... | 2023-07-31T10:54:24 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:38:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9OjvjuM2mmpPqQ6Jgoyz | Will OpenAI raise more funding by EOY? | Will resolve YES if there is an announcement of a closed fundraise (or if OpenAI goes public) by EOY.
Edited note: does not include secondary sales as these are not a fundraise unless part of a greater raise (money -> employees, not to company). | 2023-07-31T10:27:18 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-08T19:55:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AzxuGGGNbVgc9Ca8p4WF | Will contact be regained with Voyager 2 by the end of the year? | https://boingboing.net/2023/07/31/voyager-2-has-lost-communication-with-earth.html
[link preview] | 2023-07-31T09:12:37 | 2023-08-04T13:09:35 | 2023-08-04T13:09:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FXAsXMMcXIblTw7n6Ik4 | Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) be at or above $440 on Jan 1st 2025 | Last trade before new year or any trade on first trading day after new year at or above $440 resolves to YES | 2023-07-31T08:24:23 | 2025-01-02T10:46:54 | 2025-01-02T10:46:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s3Hj4UWJqOtUtRIqmfxI | Will Jake Paul beat Nate Diaz? | If Paul wins this match then this market will resolve to YES.
If Diaz wins, the match is a draw, or the match ends in a No Decision/No Contest, then this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-07-31T07:00:01 | 2023-08-06T20:15:37 | 2023-08-06T21:06:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2NSbeliLtAydmLjPjcm3 | Will Nintendo's next console be backwards-compatible with most Nintendo Switch games? | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/sources-nintendo-switch-2-targets-2024-with-next-gen-console/\n\nResolves to \"yes\" if Nintendo's next console supports at least 50% of all Nintendo Switch games on launch.\n\nClarifications:\n\nIf all digital-purchase games are transferable, but the physical cartridge slot is a different shape and does not accept Switch cartridges, resolves to YES so long as 50% of Switch games work on launch.\n\n[link preview]" | 2023-07-31T06:30:12 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-16T05:58:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-llYpDUpYIk4MObyJMzXw | Will Sam Altman continue to be the CEO of OpenAI until the end of 2024? | If he steps down, it resolves this market to NO even if he returns to his position before the end date. | 2023-07-31T02:57:28 | 2023-11-17T13:14:44 | 2023-11-17T13:14:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0BY1g18ryFaUZTPU90ty | Will Morena win Mexico's 2024 election by a margin of more than 10%? | Morena, founded in 2014, is the currently governing party in Mexico. His leader is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the current president of Mexico. He has lost some of his popularity since 2018, when he won the presidency, but the main problem the party has is that there's no re-election in the country and he's the face o... | 2023-07-31T01:42:24 | 2024-06-02T22:59:00 | 2024-06-03T18:35:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pt2RHUQ4kzwVkpXWuvDh | Will Dario Amodei be the CEO of Anthropic on September 6, 2024? | will he step down/be ousted?
If he is no longer the CEO, this resolves YES, even if Anthropic briefly has no CEO. | 2023-07-31T01:17:22 | 2024-09-05T23:29:00 | 2024-09-07T09:54:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lt2sXggGGjCGc2TcK9Xg | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18068/threads-desktop-app-before-october-1-2023/
Resolves as the linked question. | 2023-07-31T00:39:10 | 2023-08-24T17:34:56 | 2023-08-24T17:34:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PnCYC1kUfWIKdXoXWmrM | Will Valve officially launch Counter-Strike 2 before Sept.？ | Seattle time(where the Valve is located)
(https://www.counter-strike.net/cs2?l=english)(https://manifold.markets/embed/hooxi/will-valve-officially-launch-counte-dfc908881675) | 2023-07-30T22:51:23 | 2023-08-31T09:00:00 | 2023-08-31T09:11:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FpL6lpJunX0cMB13o2MF | Will any Russian civilians die in a drone attack in August? | Added 3 Aug: only citizens within the 2013 borders of Russia will count. See brief discussion in comments.
The spirit of this market: I'm trying to probe the nature of Ukraine's non-defensive operations.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DavidChee/will-a-civilian-in-moscow-be-injure) | 2023-07-30T22:32:24 | 2023-08-29T08:49:11 | 2023-08-29T08:49:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hv53xCj4e4kisT6iaSDj | Will the Wagner group invade Poland in 2023? | This market resolves as YES if an episode occured in 2023 meets all of the following conditions:
At least 50 armed Wagner personnel enter Poland.
They fire against any number of persons opposing their presence.
Their actions are not condemned by whoever is the de facto leader of Wagner at the time.
If Wagner ceases... | 2023-07-30T21:36:56 | 2024-01-01T13:48:27 | 2024-01-01T13:48:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ntvJLAUqbHjRbZr7R9Cu | A physics lab will have received a package of the LK-99 material sent from the researchers by the end of August | A professional lab with PhDs and real scientists working at it will report they received a package containing alleged superconducting material from any of the LK-99 researchers or Quantum Energy Research Center.
The report can be a press release, twitter post, blog post, etc. but should be verifiable as being from a r... | 2023-07-30T17:24:57 | 2023-08-31T06:28:16 | 2023-08-31T06:28:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YFezWfVMNRTWMnYzA63f | A physics lab will have received a package of the LK-99 material sent from the researchers before 8/5 | A professional lab with PhDs and real scientists working at it will report they received a package containing alleged superconducting material from any the LK-99 researchers or Quantum Energy Research Center.
The report can be a press release, twitter post, blog post, etc. but should be verifiable as being from a real... | 2023-07-30T17:17:23 | 2023-08-06T23:59:00 | 2023-08-31T06:28:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ch7bB7UEXlXlFcSBjjSz | Will bitcoin exceed ATH and reach 70,000$ before July 2025? | A sudden spike that gets to 70k or above less than 3 minutes (not that it's likely) doesn't count, it must be clean.
The price will be monitored on coinmarketcap.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2023-07-30T14:53:51 | 2024-03-12T07:43:50 | 2024-03-12T07:43:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VKU7amVmCKLgPl5MSgd8 | Will ECOWAS militarily intervene in the Niger coup by the end of August 2023? | ECOWAS have threatened to intervene, including use of 'force', if their demands to (roughly) return to the status quo are not met. They are now implementing economic and other non-military sanctions.
If ECOWAS does intervene militarily, this market will still resolve yes if only one state's military is actually invol... | 2023-07-30T13:35:34 | 2023-08-31T15:59:00 | 2023-09-01T05:46:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CsYsnw87hGq6DH97zX0l | Will Elon Musk's X sign stay up over the San Francisco twitter office until 1 September? | SF gov seems not to like it, but Elon will be Elon.
Ignoring the state of any light show. If the X is physically absent at any point before the beginning of 1 Sept then this is NO. Otherwise YES | 2023-07-30T11:01:13 | 2023-07-31T20:21:13 | 2023-07-31T20:21:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QLQ0LlVmEdOwCAHVf9I4 | Will OpenAI offer a higher-tier version of ChatGPT, priced above US$49, by 2025? | Resolves yes if it's not called ChatGPT, but functions in a similar way: users can submit text (and possibly more) via web page and receive an AI-generated response. | 2023-07-30T06:22:48 | 2024-12-05T14:37:20 | 2024-12-05T14:37:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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