id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-lqQpaXdTvUPRWLF1xUuf
|
London Breed is re-elected Mayor of San Francisco in 2024
|
On November 5, 2024, San Francisco will hold a mayoral election. This market resolves to YES if current Mayor London Breed is re-elected Mayor.
If London Breed does not appear on the ballot, this market will resolve to no. If Breed is ineligible for office (due to death or changing residence, for example) but is still on the ballot and is elected, this market will resolve to Yes.
|
2023-08-01T23:54:34
|
2024-11-10T13:42:04
|
2024-11-10T13:42:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6GkyIEdA1EkWfyDtCRLb
|
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open 2023 tournament?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T22:56:13
|
2023-09-08T19:43:04
|
2023-09-08T19:43:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SEjkLQOHTVPBMKMmiL28
|
Will the Mega Millions $1.25 billion jackpot be won on Friday, 8/4?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T22:37:28
|
2023-08-05T20:59:00
|
2023-08-06T09:09:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qK8bHwqJFfLN3eXX24q3
|
Will GPT-5 be released to the public by EOY?
|
Resolves YES if there is a consumer-facing interface to an OpenAI model called GPT5 on or before Dec 31, 2023.
Will also resolve YES for a public beta (involving people not affiliated with OpenAI).
|
2023-08-01T21:13:48
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:22:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dNBjfamBuXEqkSXD3c4n
|
Will a reusable orbital rocket booster be re-flown by a company other than SpaceX before 2025?
|
A non-SpaceX booster which has been recovered after an orbital launch must fly a second orbital mission before Jan 1, 2025, for this market to resolve YES. Candidate vehicles for such a mission may include Electron or New Glenn.
|
2023-08-01T21:05:01
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-05T15:27:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y6OhghRXuTn2fOEiYiXb
|
Will Victor Wembanyama win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award for the 2023-24 season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T20:31:16
|
2024-05-06T16:01:21
|
2024-05-06T16:01:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OEnb6uiav6avJuuiQBTC
|
Will bitcoin close above $29,695 on September 1, 2023?
|
Close for August 1 was $29,695
Will it go up or down by September?
|
2023-08-01T20:09:47
|
2023-09-02T21:59:00
|
2023-09-03T10:16:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uvNc6LHF2VOhmWaa1gge
|
Will The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T19:31:38
|
2023-12-07T20:11:19
|
2023-12-07T20:11:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NWRHn54dNbuUbhLmhvZT
|
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of Oct 2023?
|
Resolution under the same criteria as
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T19:07:49
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-11-02T04:56:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0LCwliA5wsrGD9dXxgwN
|
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of Sep 2023?
|
Resolution under the same criteria as
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T19:07:31
|
2023-09-30T20:59:00
|
2023-10-04T13:09:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-llNu0dXghMRWRrFTUSaz
|
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of August 2023?
|
Resolution under the same criteria as
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T19:07:06
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-09-01T06:16:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2CRcGAb3v76yfku44ugY
|
Will August 3rd be the hottest day in Aug 2023?
|
Resolves YES if the (singularly) hottest day in August 2023 is August 3rd. Resolves NO otherwise (this includes ties). If the data becomes unavailable for any reason, it will resolve N/A if and only if there is no temperature data for August 3rd available prior to September 2. I will try to resolve this as soon as temperature data for the month is complete (which should be Sept. 1), but will wait no longer than the market closing time (Sept. 2) to resolve.
Will resolve according to: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/cfsr_world_t2_day.json
The graph here rounds to 2 decimal places (but I will not be using it for resolution):
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
For quick reference, you can search the JSON for: 17.073,17.038,17.064,17.070
17.070 being July 31.
|
2023-08-01T18:27:54
|
2023-08-04T00:59:31
|
2023-08-04T00:59:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gz28I4BjJuFDb6ezeVcw
|
[100M subsidy] Will the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike be resolved before 2023 ends?
|
This market will resolve to YES if major news publications report that a deal has been reached. The major news companies need to report this news before 2024-01-01 00:00 pacific coast time (PST). For example, if a deal is reached at 11pm on 2023-12-31 but a major news publication does not report on it until the following day then this question will resolve to false.
Note that this market is not about the writers strike organized by the WGA. This is specifically about the SAG -AFTRA strike. The Wikipedia page below basically.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_SAG-AFTRA_strike
|
2023-08-01T17:34:52
|
2023-12-05T19:40:35
|
2023-12-05T19:40:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IrMAjjfxDEKzYBjRvOtq
|
Will Australia win the FIFA Women's World Cup in 2023?
|
Yes/No. Will the Australian Women's soccer team (known as the 'Matildas') win the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023?
|
2023-08-01T17:16:33
|
2023-08-16T05:02:15
|
2023-08-16T05:02:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L7pS83AxLgr0OTC2h4F5
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 20? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
|
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 20 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/politics/read-trump-indictment-classified-documents/index.html).
The Stormy Daniels hush money case (March 30)
The Jan 6 case (August 1)
See https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/
Details:
Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges.
This question will use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications.
Please note: this is different than previous questions - this is no longer using the date of a grand jury vote to indict.
Related:
@/jack/when-will-trump-be-indicted-on-the-59e7352cd7f6
@/jack/will-trump-be-indicted-or-charged-a-cb24fdf28710
@/jack/will-trump-be-indicted-or-charged-a-fadd53585de7
@/jack/will-trump-be-indicted-or-charged-a-b2cd57107501
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T16:19:19
|
2023-08-14T20:00:52
|
2023-08-14T20:00:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UoQWa68ETbNgcFxl7pTR
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 6? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
|
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 6 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/politics/read-trump-indictment-classified-documents/index.html).
The Stormy Daniels hush money case (March 30)
The Jan 6 case (August 1)
See https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/
Details:
Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges.
This question will use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications.
Please note: this is different than previous questions - this is no longer using the date of a grand jury vote to indict.
Related:
When will Trump be indicted on the Georgia election interference investigation?
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 6? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 13? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 20? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T16:18:55
|
2023-08-06T20:59:00
|
2023-08-07T05:29:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0tDi58HufD6nrjcptplN
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 13? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
|
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 13 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/politics/read-trump-indictment-classified-documents/index.html).
The Stormy Daniels hush money case (March 30)
The Jan 6 case (August 1)
See https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/
Details:
Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges.
This question will use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications.
Please note: this is different than previous questions - this is no longer using the date of a grand jury vote to indict.
Related:
When will Trump be indicted on the Georgia election interference investigation?
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 6? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 13? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 20? (after the Jan 6 indictment)
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T16:18:24
|
2023-08-13T20:59:00
|
2023-08-14T06:40:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1yYST3yGtxp3TCfbyBad
|
Will Elon Musk tweet about Manifold in 2023?
|
Or xeet, as the case may be.
"Tweet about" means (non-exhaustively) linking to Manifold in any way (including our newsletter), sharing an image of a Manifold market, mentioning Manifold directly by name, or dicussing prediction markets in a way where it's obvious he's talking about Manifold (versus another platform).
Especially relevant given: @/StrayClimb/will-elon-musk-mention-lk99-or-supe
|
2023-08-01T15:56:34
|
2024-01-01T15:57:14
|
2024-01-01T15:57:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z5HQ2RGsnDaXKY9OKVMY
|
Will there be products utilizing room-tempature, ambient-pressure superconductors by the end of 2024?
|
Proof of any physical product, for any market, available and for sale to any group and physically containing LK-99 or any other room temp ambient pressure superconductor by end of 2024--linked in a comment here by me or any other person or artifical intelligence resolves "Yes".
|
2023-08-01T15:19:14
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:07:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cDvjC9xpstSNO8V7LZ2l
|
Will Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz end in a decision?
|
Jake Paul (6-1) and Nate Diaz (0-0) are scheduled to have a professional boxing match on August 5th, 2023 in Dallas, Texas, USA.
If the fight ends in a decision or technical decision, this question will resolve YES.
If the fight ends in a KO, TKO, retirement, or DQ, this question will resolve NO.
If the bout is declared a No Contest on the night, or if the bout is cancelled, this question will resolve N/A.
|
2023-08-01T12:59:27
|
2023-08-05T22:07:53
|
2023-08-05T22:07:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v9CbRorFSTyvYR6fLasj
|
Will Jake Paul beat Nate Diaz?
|
Jake Paul (6-1) and Nate Diaz (0-0) are scheduled to have a professional boxing match on August 5th, 2023 in Dallas, Texas, USA.
If Jake Paul wins, this question will resolve YES.
If Nate Diaz wins, or if the fight ends in a draw, this question will resolve NO.
If the bout is declared a No Contest on the night, or if the bout is cancelled, this question will resolve N/A.
|
2023-08-01T12:55:39
|
2023-08-05T22:10:46
|
2023-08-05T22:10:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2n1uUbTLEwY1pylD5fUj
|
Will we have multiple, replicated room temperature, ambient pressure superconducting substances by end of 2023?
|
More than one distinct substance with multiple claims of replication.
Approaches must not be considered LK-99.
|
2023-08-01T12:18:34
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T19:11:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cx5WCIssf2ILvKIqDKFG
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T11:46:20
|
2024-11-06T10:29:00
|
2024-11-06T19:06:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3LtkEqqJkGu3FmQmFMKK
|
Will xkcd publish a comic about superconductors before Aug 8th 2023?
|
Resolves to YES iff xkcd publishes a comic that mentions superconductors, or is directly related to superconductors, or if any reasonable explanation of the comic (for example on explainxkcd.com) refers to superconductors.
Image titletext is considered a part of the comic.
Any comic mentioning superconductors published prior to Aug 1st 2023 has no effect on resolution.
For this market to resolve YES, the publication
must appear at the URL xkcd.com.
must be put online before it's Aug 8th in the CEST timezone.
|
2023-08-01T11:07:12
|
2023-08-07T15:02:10
|
2023-08-07T15:02:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VyIufG95GGcVDSzJZXfC
|
Will Ludwig Ahgren appear on Jet Lag before 2025?
|
Resolves YES if Ludwig appears on Jet Lag: The Game as a guest between now and the start of 2025. Also resolves YES if Ludwig has a John Green style cameo on Jet Lag: The Game between now and the start of 2025, or if Ludwig and the Jet Lag Crew film a Tom Scott Plus style one-off for his youtube channel or similar between now and the start of 2025.
Resolves NO otherwise, including if Ludwig appears as a guest on the Layover but not in an IRL competition.
|
2023-08-01T10:54:06
|
2025-01-01T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T01:01:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SVkFRbP3c7yrZGhrKgEs
|
Will destiny reach 700k subscribers in August?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
related markets:
@/CourierSix/will-destiny-reach-750k-subscribers
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-f62d9ac83d07@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-706k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-703k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-702k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-701k-subscribers
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-700k-subscribers-0afb295d856d
@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-696k-subscribers
@/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-46a74402b6a9
|
2023-08-01T10:46:33
|
2023-08-29T04:27:10
|
2023-08-29T04:27:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1VIgJ7AeAcl2JcGAeFbp
|
Will the Crimean bridge (Kerch bridge) be attacked once again by Ukraine by 2024?
|
Famous for having been hit twice (even if the amount of damage was not catastrophic), news reports of the Kerch bridge being attacked are widely shared within Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia may well step up their security of the bridge rendering future attacks harder.
If by the end of the year the BBC does not report on another attack on the bridge, then this question is said to have failed.
|
2023-08-01T10:37:04
|
2023-08-13T00:07:44
|
2023-08-13T00:07:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aKUUQ0PjOFRbIl46d8W7
|
Will Moscow be hit by another drone by the end of the week?
|
For this to be true, I will await for the BBC news to report that another building has been hit by a(n explosive) drone.
EDIT 02/08: By 'another building', I in fact meant any building in Moscow, which could be the same skyscraper yet again.
EDIT 05/08: The week ends 12am Monday 07th Moscow time.
|
2023-08-01T10:31:54
|
2023-08-06T15:42:31
|
2023-08-06T15:42:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lf5n9Zf7P72IpTC5LQE5
|
Will Chris Nolan win Best Director at the Oscar's for Oppenheimer?
|
Nolan has had his films nominated for various awards, but will be take the top award?
|
2023-08-01T10:23:56
|
2024-03-10T16:59:00
|
2024-03-17T12:14:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fwy1XLQ7JH7jldW95Dny
|
WIll LK-99 have been convincingly debunked or proven by august 12th?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre\n\nIf, before august 12, the linked market falls below 4% or rises above 96% and stays there for more than 6 hours, this market resolves YES. Else resolves NO.\n\n[link preview]"
|
2023-08-01T09:36:25
|
2023-08-12T12:43:07
|
2023-08-12T12:43:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FRGZBwfCpYZcVsYpDFhq
|
(M100 SUBSIDY) Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before september?
|
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?
Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:
Zero DC electrical resistivity (or something close enough if the measurement is AC).
A phase change*, which is usually exhibited as a sharp discontinuity in the heat capacity.
The Meissner effect (magnetic fields expelled).
If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper.
2) has an asterisk because @BenjaminShindel suggests that a phase change might not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists.
I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath.
Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T09:26:17
|
2023-08-30T20:59:00
|
2023-08-30T23:19:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZUFpQfuYz7HGewIdV34l
|
Will the BBC News site publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week?
|
Given the enormous amount of hype about LK-99 in so many online spaces including Manifold, I have been very surprised to see the lack of coverage in most mainstream media.
As far as I can tell, at time of writing there has been no coverage at all of LK-99 in the Guardian, the Economist or the BBC.
Will the BBC publish an article on the BBC News website about LK-99 or the purported discovery of a room-temperature superconductor in the next week?
Other markets on the subject:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bbc-news-site-publish-an-a
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic
Resolution criterea:
I will count any article which has been published on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news by 22:00 BST on Tuesday 8th August
The article must be accessible on a URL which begins with https://www.bbc.co.uk/news - something which is published on another BBC site or product will not count unless some version of it appears on the news site itself
The primary subject of the article must be the potential discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, the specific research and discussion around LK-99 or the reaction to it. An article debunking or dismissing the research or an article about how the whole thing has been a hoax would count, but an article which is primarily about something else but which has a passing mention of LK-99 or superconductors in general would not.
Hopefully there won't be any ambiguity (either they publish an article which is primarily about this subject or they don't), but just in case there is some level of subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.
|
2023-08-01T09:01:26
|
2023-08-08T14:00:00
|
2023-08-08T14:28:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2KMfwYnx32aniIxtTZCJ
|
Will the Economist publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week?
|
Given the enormous amount of hype about LK-99 in so many online spaces including Manifold, I have been very surprised to see the lack of coverage in most mainstream media.
As far as I can tell, at time of writing there has been no coverage at all of LK-99 in the Guardian, the Economist or the BBC.
Will the Economist publish an article about LK-99 or the purported discovery of a room-temperature superconductor in the next week?
Other markets on the subject:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bbc-news-site-publish-an-a
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic
Resolution criterea:
I will count any article which has been published on https://www.economist.com/ by 22:00 BST on Tuesday 8th August. It doesn't matter whether the article is in behind the paywall or not - I have a subscription so I can read anything they publish behind the paywall.
I would expect to see the article in their science and technology section, but it still counts if it is published as a standalone article which appears anywhere else on the site.
The primary subject of the article must be the potential discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, the specific research and discussion around LK-99 or the reaction to it. An article debunking or dismissing the research or an article about how the whole thing has been a hoax would count, but an article which is primarily about something else but which has a passing mention of LK-99 or superconductors in general would not.
Hopefully there won't be any ambiguity (either they publish an article which is primarily about this subject or they don't), but just in case there is some level of subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.
|
2023-08-01T08:57:14
|
2023-08-03T13:33:19
|
2023-08-03T13:33:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4oqBU4zDxNJsLWzyNtVQ
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of March 2024?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
[markets][markets]
|
2023-08-01T08:55:22
|
2024-03-30T23:59:00
|
2024-04-01T07:05:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-toBk05EDPzD7lC1qUNnX
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of February 2024?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
[markets]
|
2023-08-01T08:54:53
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-02-29T21:06:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-txpmi2JdlMA680zQYoDD
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of January 2024?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
[markets][markets]
|
2023-08-01T08:54:03
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-01T00:33:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mXYT04DQbWH2wfl0WxLN
|
Will the Guardian publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week?
|
Given the enormous amount of hype about LK-99 in so many online spaces including Manifold, I have been very surprised to see the lack of coverage in most mainstream media.
As far as I can tell, at time of writing there has been no coverage at all of LK-99 in the Guardian, the Economist or the BBC.
Will the Guardian publish an article about LK-99 or the purported discovery of a room-temperature superconductor in the next week?
Other markets on the subject:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bbc-news-site-publish-an-a
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic
Resolution criterea:
I will count any article which has been published on guardian.co.uk by 22:00 BST on Tuesday 8th August
The primary subject of the article must be the potential discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, the specific research and discussion around LK-99 or the reaction to it. An article debunking or dismissing the research or an article about how the whole thing has been a hoax would count, but an article which is primarily about something else but which has a passing mention of LK-99 or superconductors in general would not.
Hopefully there won't be any ambiguity (either they publish an article which is primarily about this subject or they don't), but just in case there is some level of subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.
|
2023-08-01T08:51:18
|
2023-08-08T14:00:00
|
2023-08-08T14:41:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MUiZX9cHXXVrHygYvKYM
|
Will the Dow Jones (DJI) close higher on August 2nd than it closed on August 1st? [Ṁana Prize Leaderboard]
|
DJI closes at 4pm ET. Predictions close at 2pm ET.
Previous Close:
[image]
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-08-01T08:31:51
|
2023-08-02T11:00:00
|
2023-08-02T13:15:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kphkIrlmHjGcCssSiHdi
|
(M1000 SUBSIDY) Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2024?
|
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?
Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:
Zero DC electrical resistivity (or something close enough if the measurement is AC).
A phase change*, which is usually exhibited as a sharp discontinuity in the heat capacity.
The Meissner effect (magnetic fields expelled).
If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper.
2) has an asterisk because @BenjaminShindel suggests that a phase change might not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists.
I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath.
This market will resolve to whether the 2025 Market resolves.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T08:29:13
|
2024-01-01T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T22:02:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9xtWdMEEWXPhgE1dgP2C
|
Will the superconductor dudes shut up by the end of August.
|
Condition Sc and lk99 related tags are 0<x<500 tweets by August end.
|
2023-08-01T08:25:38
|
2023-08-15T10:39:12
|
2023-08-15T10:39:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yzUE8evpqFLldwYrXBny
|
Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 100 against the USD before the end of October 2023?
|
Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 100 is enough.
The current spot price (1 Aug 2023) is around 92 against the USD (the higher the fx rate, the weaker the Ruble)
|
2023-08-01T08:04:06
|
2023-08-14T16:10:07
|
2023-08-14T16:10:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LZ2aXE9pn2zsYd1FKBgl
|
Will the current Prime Minister of Belgium be replaced before the end of 2024?
|
The current Belgian Prime Minister is Mr. Alexander De Croo, since 1 Oct 2020.
Federal elections are scheduled to be held in Belgium on 9 June 2024.
|
2023-08-01T07:43:25
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:17:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TxiU4O0OXFaH7zGor4tw
|
Will Google's Gemini LLM have qualitatively different capabilities to GPT-4?
|
Will it e.g. have planning built in? Or more deeply embedded tool use? Or different multi-modal capabilities?
Resolves to NO if looks like increment on GPT-4 with just vision as extra mode
|
2023-08-01T07:15:25
|
2023-12-06T13:42:01
|
2023-12-06T13:42:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SouDgLl8wNnsPr6rSSqZ
|
Will any European country have changed its capital before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T07:15:01
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:17:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r50e9PwwPisAdCrAfmqK
|
Will Google's Gemini [Ultra] LLM be released in 2023?
|
released = generally available to the public e.g. via Bard or something like it
Dec 6th update: Gemini Ultra model is what this means. Not pro or nano
|
2023-08-01T07:11:07
|
2023-12-31T15:25:16
|
2023-12-31T15:25:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PeQ9TfUGVhhaS4zGK014
|
Bitcoin will be back to 45000$ in next 365 days (due to 2024-08-01)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T06:42:21
|
2023-12-31T07:59:00
|
2024-01-02T07:09:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uGzkNCl4h4BrLXt3RTuP
|
Will Australia defeat Denmark in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Australia wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Denmark wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-01T06:11:20
|
2023-08-07T05:24:31
|
2023-08-07T05:24:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xwe6MUqsVXtMGwyUq6su
|
Will England defeat Nigeria in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if England wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Nigeria wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-08-01T06:09:22
|
2023-08-07T03:22:27
|
2023-08-07T03:22:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oH6XqTzhHlAd3F5uR0JO
|
Will Bluesky survive past 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T06:08:33
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:25:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LNcYn8SdLzhFgdBNBwlL
|
Will X (fka Twitter) implement some form of prediction markets by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-08-01T05:20:51
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:11:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UBDWYiarWJcYr5weEKE5
|
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?
|
Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18170/commercial-use-of-room-temp-superconductor/
Copy of Metaculus's resolution criteria:
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure.
To qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:
The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)
The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher
The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less
The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.
Fine Print
Metaculus will make a determination as to whether these criteria are satisfied and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.
Background
A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, describes a new material known as LK-99 which the authors claim exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. The veracity of the results are uncertain, but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it could revolutionize the electronics industry.
Previous efforts in high-temperature superconductivity have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 gigapascals (GPa) and below 138 Kelvin (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent research has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim has been called into question.
|
2023-08-01T05:03:03
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:15:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gDb2c6WP5y7c3ISLeKzJ
|
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room temp superconductivity in LK-99?
|
Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18177/room-temp-superconductor-replicated-by-2025/
Copy of Metaculus's resolution criteria:
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
This question will resolve as YES if a peer-reviewed replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that confirms the main findings is published before January 1, 2025. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.
A confirmatory replication would have to include the following:
Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99
Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting
Confirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature
To be considered a confirmed replication the research must replicate all of the above.
Fine Print
Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of a peer-reviewed replication attempt before January 1, 2025.
Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.
Background
On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T05:00:42
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-10T19:04:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-21riJQqp2mglN7t2fjUN
|
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before August 10, 2023?
|
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T03:39:18
|
2023-08-10T09:59:00
|
2023-08-11T05:27:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-deKpnQcGX28e3AlV0yZK
|
August 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000?
|
If in August 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2023-08-01T02:51:12
|
2023-08-31T14:59:00
|
2023-09-01T02:42:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QlJU5y6ebsa3LulYJ1fa
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close August higher than it opened?
|
August 1st Open: $29,233
vs
August 30th Close... resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data#panel
[link preview]
|
2023-08-01T02:43:09
|
2023-09-01T02:44:23
|
2023-09-01T02:44:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zGPYUdr2MOdPFKxfSclN
|
Will India's Chandrayaan-3 land successfully?
|
Their last mission Chandrayaan-2 couldn't land (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2#Loss_of_Vikram). On 1st August, it changed the trajectory to escape Earth orbit. It will enter Lunar orbit on 5th August. It is scheduled to land on 24th August 17:47 IST.
Mission details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3
Unlike last time, will it land successfully this time?
|
2023-07-31T23:43:28
|
2023-08-23T05:33:56
|
2023-08-23T05:33:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WH0IcolValuX1i1v6avO
|
Will the S&P 500 increase in August 2023?
|
Will the S&P 500 close at 4588.96 or higher on 2023-08-31 ()?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-by-2-or-mo
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level from January to July 2023
4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
|
2023-07-31T23:18:57
|
2023-08-31T17:00:00
|
2023-08-31T17:50:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PHhFV1btQtqbFnHmnhXh
|
Will the Pfizer covid-19 vaccine get federally banned in the US by 2025
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-31T23:18:15
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T00:22:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O7l0vZTwpkBoVRfzZ8mc
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by 2% or more in August 2023?
|
Will the S&P 500 close at 4680.7392 or higher on 2023-08-31 (4507.66)?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-august
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level from January to July 2023
4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
|
2023-07-31T23:18:15
|
2023-08-31T17:00:00
|
2023-08-31T17:51:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-77oZT4JXAuNAAJ8JwbKt
|
Will users be able to browse X (formerly Twitter) on the x.com domain on September the 1st, 2023?
|
Elon Must has recently begun re-branding Twitter to X. At the moment, x.com re-directs visitors to twitter.com. The question is whether users will be able to use X on the x.com URI itself (rather than being re-directed) on September the 1st, 2023.
|
2023-07-31T21:36:38
|
2023-09-01T04:59:00
|
2023-09-01T05:03:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KYS82zlMOCrLjtlj3abv
|
Will US troops participate in a military intervention in Niger?
|
In the next month, will US troops participate in a military intervention or provide material support to a military intervention intended to oust a military-backed coup in Niger? The US has troops stationed in Niger on mission to fight extremist militias with Niger and regional forces. The Economic Community of West African States has provided the coup a deadline to re-instate the democratically elected president or face an armed intervention. Rumors have swirled that ministers from the deposed government have given permission to French troops to evacuate the president, currently being detained.
|
2023-07-31T20:38:47
|
2023-08-30T23:59:00
|
2023-08-31T00:19:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5yW0G97WdmEVKNrrUqTi
|
Will Donald Trump win every contest in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primary?
|
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump finishes in first place in every nominating contest of the 2024 Republican Party presidential primary. If Trump finishes second or lower in any contest, this market will resolve to NO.
|
2023-07-31T20:26:40
|
2024-03-03T17:32:52
|
2024-03-03T17:33:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aZoi58M1THCzoyTtMoyS
|
Will Japan defeat Norway in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Japan wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Norway wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-07-31T18:01:08
|
2023-08-05T02:55:56
|
2023-08-05T02:55:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dwrP0PRKITo9jIi8n746
|
Will Switzerland defeat Spain in their Round of 16 match? Women’s World Cup 2023
|
Resolves YES if Switzerland wins their round of 16 match. Resolves NO if Spain wins. A draw is not possible. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
|
2023-07-31T17:58:14
|
2023-08-04T23:55:01
|
2023-08-04T23:55:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nDBiydBPl3CjlNYubpvF
|
Will the US reschedule cannabis by the end of 2024?
|
Yes means that the US reschedules cannabis (marijuana) to be other than Schedule 1, or deschedules it entirely.
No means that cannabis remains Schedule 1.
The bill must have passed and been signed by the president if the action is legislative.
|
2023-07-31T16:00:26
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:25:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WbW0xG57jHoDdvaDm0Nm
|
Will Barbenheimer overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens in domestic box office records?
|
Star Wars: The Force Awakens is the top-grossing film in domestic box office records, with total receipts of $936,662,225 according to BoxOfficeMojo. For the purposes of this market, "Barbenheimer" represents the combined domestic box office grosses of 'Barbie' (2023) and 'Oppenheimer' (2023) on BoxOfficeMojo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barbenheimer's domestic box office gross exceeds $936,662,225 by November 16, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If both Barbie and Oppenheimer definitively stop reporting numbers before November 16, 2023, and the total gross is still less than Star Wars, the market may resolve to "No."
The domestic gross for 'Oppenheimer' can be found here under the heading "domestic": https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15398776/. The domestic gross for 'Barbie' can be found here under the heading "domestic": https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1517268/. The domestic grosses for each movie will be combined for the total Barbenheimer domestic gross. In the event that BoxOfficeMojo ceases to be available or reliable, then other websites that numerically track box office totals may be used.
|
2023-07-31T15:16:01
|
2023-09-13T20:03:03
|
2023-09-13T20:03:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6kGVzjOpIC83OlhYoMnK
|
Will $TSLA close above $300 on September 1st, 2023?
|
Will resolve to yes if the closing price on September 1st 2023 of $TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) exceeds $300. Will resolve to no otherwise
|
2023-07-31T15:08:40
|
2023-09-01T14:59:00
|
2023-09-01T21:16:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UsmPg2BVhRNLLAm9vYQl
|
Will the US Fed announce increase in interest rates on Sep 20?
|
The board of US Federal Reserve will meet on Sep 19-20 to discuss the monetary policy. In the last meeting the rates were hiked by 25 bps (Link to News report).
|
2023-07-31T15:05:52
|
2023-09-19T23:59:00
|
2023-09-20T16:05:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qk5DEPOkZyxCmmhcRjgU
|
Will a high-ranking U.S. official deny "UFOs = aliens" this year?
|
This market is based on the premise that a high-ranking U.S. official will deny the idea that Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) are related to extraterrestrial life within this year. A denial should be as explicit as saying "we should not take the idea of extraterrestrial influence seriously", or similar remarks.
For the purposes of this market, a "high-ranking U.S. official" is any of:
- President
- Vice president
- Cabinet member
- Member of Joint Chiefs of Staff
- Member of the National Security Council
The statement must either be public, or made public (e.g. leaked, and confirmed by an independent source) by the end of the year. If leaked, the leak must come from two independent sources, and both sources must come forward before the end of the year.
{sources}
- [Original Market]
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottLawrence/will-a-highranking-us-official-endo)(https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-a-highranking-us-official-endo?r=RnJhbmtsaW5CYWxkbw)
- [Bill Nelson's remarks](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/579303-nasa-chief-bill-nelson-latest-official-to-suggest-ufos-have/ )
[link preview]
|
2023-07-31T14:43:43
|
2023-12-31T19:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:18:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fm13WYzSwkJioltSfock
|
Ukraine - Will at least 1 of these cities be liberated by the end of August?
|
Svatove, Lysychans'k, Donetsk, Volnovakha, Polohy, Tokmak, Vasylivka
if there's still fighting ongoing inside the city it will not count
[image]
|
2023-07-31T14:31:05
|
2023-08-31T11:00:00
|
2023-08-31T11:07:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LSWTz9DxAUQSnO0w6WDI
|
Will TMNT: Mutant Mayhem gross $37,000,000 or more on opening weekend?
|
YES Condition:
TMNT: Mutant Mayhem must gross 37 million or more for it's box office weekend
NO Condition:
TMNT: Mutant Mayhem must gross $36,999,999.99 or less.
This market CLOSES: August 6th, 2023 11:59 PM ET.
This market RESOLVES: August 8th, 2023 11:59 PM ET OR when Box Office Mojo releases the final official opening numbers.
Release Date: August 2nd 2023 (Wednesday Release)
*This Is For Domestic Gross Only (5-day WTFSS)
*Fixed link & extended trading an additional 12 hours (Timestamp 08.06.23 1040am ET)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-07-31T13:50:24
|
2023-08-06T20:59:00
|
2023-08-07T16:03:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lhUfDggS5I1qwfY2QNor
|
Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?
|
Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered).
At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.
|
2023-07-31T13:40:00
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:32:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uzJtSYuT51Xia9Wyrbf8
|
Will AAPL reach $205.87 USD between now and the end of August?
|
YES Requirement:
If AAPL reaches 205.87 USD at any time before the end of August.
NO Requirement:
If AAPL does not reach 205.87 USD before the end of August.
Why 205.87?
It's approximately a 3.25T USD market cap at that price based on the reported amount of shares by Apple. The current market cap is 3T USD.
Resolves based off of Google Finance: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ
Edit: ticker.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-31T13:37:08
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-08-31T21:38:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8EjdV2AjLBnkAdeEw8YB
|
Will Bayern Munich beat Liverpool?
|
Club Friendly on Aug 2
|
2023-07-31T13:32:57
|
2023-08-02T06:30:00
|
2023-08-02T07:56:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-94GdtAEgn3mPQ6vDrFEM
|
Will Twitter's logo continue to be an X for the whole of the rest of 2023?
|
A week ago, Twitter changed their logo to be a black stylised X on a white background. There has been a sutble update to the look of this logo, but it is still an X.
At present, the market believes that there is a very high chance that this logo will stick around for a while - traders think there's more than a 90% chance that the logo will last until the end of August:
@/SimonGrayson/will-twitters-logo-still-be-an-x-by-40f8f22ef21c
Will this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Thursday 31st December (the close time of this market)?
Resolution notes;
I will be looking at the logo on the top left of the site when I view https://twitter.com/home while logged in. If there is no longer a logo in that particular part of the page, I will use my judgement to judge what counts as the site's logo.
If the logo is changed back to the blue bird or anything else which isn't an X, this market resolves NO, even if the change is temporary.
If the logo is changed to something else which is still an X, this will still resolve YES
If there is no logo on the site and it is impossible to determine what Twitter's logo is at the time that this market closes, I will resolve to N/A
By "Twitter" I mean the service that we currently know as Twitter. If the name of the service changes, that does not affect this market.
|
2023-07-31T12:21:59
|
2024-01-01T00:41:41
|
2024-01-01T00:41:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cpPo1vsJCcWF5UK0V4Ex
|
Will Starfield be delayed before its September 6, 2023 release date?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-31T11:57:37
|
2023-09-01T17:24:27
|
2023-09-01T17:24:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vN5h8xyuFnBQG3ppEtMw
|
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will iPhone sales in 2023 exceed sales in 2022?
|
In 2015, iPhone sales reached a peak at 231.2 million units sold. The number of sales fluctuated until it reached a new peak in 2021, with 242 million units sold. However, in 2022, sales declined to 232.2 million units.
https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/
[link preview]
This autumn, the various models of iPhone 15 are slated to be released. The expected shipment target is 85 million units according to industry sources which is generally in line with figures from previous years. However, there are also rumours of a price hike for Pro models which might influence sales.
The question will resolve to YES, if according to the Business of Apps webpage above, iPhone sales in 2023 exceed sales in 2022. The question will resolve to NO, if iPhone sales in 2023 are lower than that in 2022.
The question is for now slated to close by March 1, 2024, since updates to sales data of the previous year tend to occur by Q1 / February next year.
|
2023-07-31T11:49:49
|
2024-02-07T03:30:00
|
2024-02-07T04:58:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PTwfKYddnRmFOWtKNY7m
|
North Korea nuke by EOY 2023?
|
*This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic People's Public of Korea (North Korea) detonates a nuclear device in any capacity by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation initiated by North Korea will result in a "Yes" resolution.
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
|
2023-07-31T11:23:04
|
2024-01-01T20:59:00
|
2024-01-04T10:56:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6ncOUA1RjVRZCm2daCdl
|
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real?
|
*This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) are replicated at least two times by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of these replications.
If there is ambiguity as to whether replications under consideration for the resolution of this market are credible, this may remain open until July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, to allow for the publication of any replication results in a reputable journal. One such publication will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If no such paper is published by this delayed resolution time, this market will resolve to "No".
[link preview]
|
2023-07-31T11:19:26
|
2024-01-01T13:20:30
|
2024-01-01T13:20:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QuT8R4cuBREOdh6gi4Bd
|
Will Elon Musk mention LK-99 or Superconductors this week?
|
Before midnight Saturday August 5th pst
Mentions in a tweet, twitter "post" (ugh) or interview or something verifiable.
Counts if he mentions "superconductivity" or refers clearly to new south korean physics research.
Also counts if he replies to a post about the LK-99 reports
|
2023-07-31T11:10:09
|
2023-08-03T09:45:04
|
2023-08-03T09:45:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MKR4aFSMFuozL1jLWAhs
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1?
|
[From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets]
*This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This question will resolve to “Yes” if the Institute for the Study of War Map shows that Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at any point between June 5 and October 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "severing the land bridge" is defined as extending the zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to any point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov Sea northeast to the Russian border (Kerch Strait Bridge not included). On the ISW Map, Russian-controlled territory is shaded red. Therefore, for this market to resolve to "Yes", there must be territory that includes at least some coastline between Henichesk and the Russian border near Taganrog, which is not colored red on the ISW map.
For the purposes of this market, if the small strip of land to the south of "Molochnoye Ozera", south of Melitopol, is still red, it would classify as Russia continuing to have a land bridge from Russia, even if Ukraine destroys the bridge which physically connects that territory.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISW's "Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine" (e.g.https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the ISW's "Interactive Map" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from the ISW may be used. If information from the ISW is rendered permanently unavailable, information from Liveuamap (https://liveuamap.com/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and Liveuamap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-31T10:58:58
|
2023-11-01T20:59:00
|
2023-11-24T23:46:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oQCLm3OGngWaoURZBhDE
|
Will Russia & Ukraine declare a ceasefire by EOY 2023?
|
[From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets currently posted on Polymarket]
*This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official announcement of a ceasefire agreement, regardless of the ceasefire's length, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The ceasefire agreement must be acknowledged and accepted by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments to be considered valid. The ceasefire must apply to the entire territory of Ukraine as defined by the UN, including all regions currently involved in the conflict, to be considered valid.
The specific date that the ceasefire agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced before this market's end time.
|
2023-07-31T10:54:24
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:38:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9OjvjuM2mmpPqQ6Jgoyz
|
Will OpenAI raise more funding by EOY?
|
Will resolve YES if there is an announcement of a closed fundraise (or if OpenAI goes public) by EOY.
Edited note: does not include secondary sales as these are not a fundraise unless part of a greater raise (money -> employees, not to company).
|
2023-07-31T10:27:18
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-08T19:55:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AzxuGGGNbVgc9Ca8p4WF
|
Will contact be regained with Voyager 2 by the end of the year?
|
https://boingboing.net/2023/07/31/voyager-2-has-lost-communication-with-earth.html
[link preview]
|
2023-07-31T09:12:37
|
2023-08-04T13:09:35
|
2023-08-04T13:09:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FXAsXMMcXIblTw7n6Ik4
|
Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) be at or above $440 on Jan 1st 2025
|
Last trade before new year or any trade on first trading day after new year at or above $440 resolves to YES
|
2023-07-31T08:24:23
|
2025-01-02T10:46:54
|
2025-01-02T10:46:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s3Hj4UWJqOtUtRIqmfxI
|
Will Jake Paul beat Nate Diaz?
|
If Paul wins this match then this market will resolve to YES.
If Diaz wins, the match is a draw, or the match ends in a No Decision/No Contest, then this market will resolve to NO.
|
2023-07-31T07:00:01
|
2023-08-06T20:15:37
|
2023-08-06T21:06:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2NSbeliLtAydmLjPjcm3
|
Will Nintendo's next console be backwards-compatible with most Nintendo Switch games?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/sources-nintendo-switch-2-targets-2024-with-next-gen-console/\n\nResolves to \"yes\" if Nintendo's next console supports at least 50% of all Nintendo Switch games on launch.\n\nClarifications:\n\nIf all digital-purchase games are transferable, but the physical cartridge slot is a different shape and does not accept Switch cartridges, resolves to YES so long as 50% of Switch games work on launch.\n\n[link preview]"
|
2023-07-31T06:30:12
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-16T05:58:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-llYpDUpYIk4MObyJMzXw
|
Will Sam Altman continue to be the CEO of OpenAI until the end of 2024?
|
If he steps down, it resolves this market to NO even if he returns to his position before the end date.
|
2023-07-31T02:57:28
|
2023-11-17T13:14:44
|
2023-11-17T13:14:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0BY1g18ryFaUZTPU90ty
|
Will Morena win Mexico's 2024 election by a margin of more than 10%?
|
Morena, founded in 2014, is the currently governing party in Mexico. His leader is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the current president of Mexico. He has lost some of his popularity since 2018, when he won the presidency, but the main problem the party has is that there's no re-election in the country and he's the face of the party.
The question resolves on the 3rd of June 2024, the date when we will know the results of the election. If the candidate for Morena wins, it will resolve to YES. If any other candidate wins, it will resolve to NO.
|
2023-07-31T01:42:24
|
2024-06-02T22:59:00
|
2024-06-03T18:35:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pt2RHUQ4kzwVkpXWuvDh
|
Will Dario Amodei be the CEO of Anthropic on September 6, 2024?
|
will he step down/be ousted?
If he is no longer the CEO, this resolves YES, even if Anthropic briefly has no CEO.
|
2023-07-31T01:17:22
|
2024-09-05T23:29:00
|
2024-09-07T09:54:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lt2sXggGGjCGc2TcK9Xg
|
Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?
|
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18068/threads-desktop-app-before-october-1-2023/
Resolves as the linked question.
|
2023-07-31T00:39:10
|
2023-08-24T17:34:56
|
2023-08-24T17:34:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PnCYC1kUfWIKdXoXWmrM
|
Will Valve officially launch Counter-Strike 2 before Sept.？
|
Seattle time(where the Valve is located)
(https://www.counter-strike.net/cs2?l=english)(https://manifold.markets/embed/hooxi/will-valve-officially-launch-counte-dfc908881675)
|
2023-07-30T22:51:23
|
2023-08-31T09:00:00
|
2023-08-31T09:11:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FpL6lpJunX0cMB13o2MF
|
Will any Russian civilians die in a drone attack in August?
|
Added 3 Aug: only citizens within the 2013 borders of Russia will count. See brief discussion in comments.
The spirit of this market: I'm trying to probe the nature of Ukraine's non-defensive operations.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DavidChee/will-a-civilian-in-moscow-be-injure)
|
2023-07-30T22:32:24
|
2023-08-29T08:49:11
|
2023-08-29T08:49:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hv53xCj4e4kisT6iaSDj
|
Will the Wagner group invade Poland in 2023?
|
This market resolves as YES if an episode occured in 2023 meets all of the following conditions:
At least 50 armed Wagner personnel enter Poland.
They fire against any number of persons opposing their presence.
Their actions are not condemned by whoever is the de facto leader of Wagner at the time.
If Wagner ceases to exist before such an episode and in 2023, this market resolves as N/A.
|
2023-07-30T21:36:56
|
2024-01-01T13:48:27
|
2024-01-01T13:48:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ntvJLAUqbHjRbZr7R9Cu
|
A physics lab will have received a package of the LK-99 material sent from the researchers by the end of August
|
A professional lab with PhDs and real scientists working at it will report they received a package containing alleged superconducting material from any of the LK-99 researchers or Quantum Energy Research Center.
The report can be a press release, twitter post, blog post, etc. but should be verifiable as being from a real lab.
Before midnight Thursday, August 31 PST
Edit: there is a shorter term version which is currently waiting for data since there are some Korean language claims of this with very weak validation. This market will likely also be hard to resolve.
|
2023-07-30T17:24:57
|
2023-08-31T06:28:16
|
2023-08-31T06:28:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YFezWfVMNRTWMnYzA63f
|
A physics lab will have received a package of the LK-99 material sent from the researchers before 8/5
|
A professional lab with PhDs and real scientists working at it will report they received a package containing alleged superconducting material from any the LK-99 researchers or Quantum Energy Research Center.
The report can be a press release, twitter post, blog post, etc. but should be verifiable as being from a real lab.
Before midnight Friday, August 4 PST
|
2023-07-30T17:17:23
|
2023-08-06T23:59:00
|
2023-08-31T06:28:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ch7bB7UEXlXlFcSBjjSz
|
Will bitcoin exceed ATH and reach 70,000$ before July 2025?
|
A sudden spike that gets to 70k or above less than 3 minutes (not that it's likely) doesn't count, it must be clean.
The price will be monitored on coinmarketcap.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
|
2023-07-30T14:53:51
|
2024-03-12T07:43:50
|
2024-03-12T07:43:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VKU7amVmCKLgPl5MSgd8
|
Will ECOWAS militarily intervene in the Niger coup by the end of August 2023?
|
ECOWAS have threatened to intervene, including use of 'force', if their demands to (roughly) return to the status quo are not met. They are now implementing economic and other non-military sanctions.
If ECOWAS does intervene militarily, this market will still resolve yes if only one state's military is actually involved (as with Gambia in 2017, with Senegalese troops).
If a country intervenes militarily without the explicit and formal support of ECOWAS it does not count.
From comment answer below:
Military presence/engagement/conflict in Niger within resolution time = YES
Statement of intent/plans/more specific military threats, even if 99% certainty it will happen = NO
To add:
YES: special forces in NIGER, landing military aircraft in NIGER (unless just to facilitate talks or supervise a subsequent election), drones using weapons
NO: cyberwarfare, manned/unmanned flying over NIGER airspace without using weapons
|
2023-07-30T13:35:34
|
2023-08-31T15:59:00
|
2023-09-01T05:46:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CsYsnw87hGq6DH97zX0l
|
Will Elon Musk's X sign stay up over the San Francisco twitter office until 1 September?
|
SF gov seems not to like it, but Elon will be Elon.
Ignoring the state of any light show. If the X is physically absent at any point before the beginning of 1 Sept then this is NO. Otherwise YES
|
2023-07-30T11:01:13
|
2023-07-31T20:21:13
|
2023-07-31T20:21:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QLQ0LlVmEdOwCAHVf9I4
|
Will OpenAI offer a higher-tier version of ChatGPT, priced above US$49, by 2025?
|
Resolves yes if it's not called ChatGPT, but functions in a similar way: users can submit text (and possibly more) via web page and receive an AI-generated response.
|
2023-07-30T06:22:48
|
2024-12-05T14:37:20
|
2024-12-05T14:37:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.