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stringlengths 8
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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-OM7HbxFMeMJqYB3zUzpI
|
Will the Antarctic sea ice reach a new minimum in 2024?
|
It reached one in 2022 and 2023:
[image]source: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
[image]Source: https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1685247268377804800
Will the trend continue?
|
2023-07-30T05:17:27
|
2024-03-27T08:29:46
|
2024-03-27T08:29:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-47e8uhcnfqTbX58P5xDf
|
Will there be another hat-trick scored at the Women's World Cup?
|
Ary Borges of Brazil got the first one.
Sophie Roman Haug of Norway got the second.
Will there be another one?
|
2023-07-30T04:45:30
|
2023-08-02T05:13:51
|
2023-08-02T05:13:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aUIKcuP7UaCb6jCLWZmQ
|
Will autonomous lethal weapons platforms or "robot soldiers" be deployed in any conflict by end 2024?
|
The conflict could be formal military engagements, but also civil uprisings or riots; I'm using a broad definition of "conflict", though there must be a field of engagement. The weapons platform could be a drone, a vehicular weapons targeting and firing system, a missile that chooses targets and launches itself, a self-guided ground assault device, or any number of other things.
Must be:
"Autonomous" - able to act without direct human action, and do so in a combat context. Can have oversight and be interruptible by human operators, but not require it. Must also be physically detached from human soldiers (no infantry firearms or supplemental gear that is unable to act when not attached to infantry helmets, packs, armor, etc.), though can be embedded into vehicles.
"Lethal" - equipped with lethal armaments intended for use on human targets, not simply a support or nonlethal pacification robot.
"Deployed" - present on the field of engagement in a nonreserve capacity.
Static explosive devices like mines and claymores don't count.
Doesn't need to actually fire or use its lethal tools against human targets, though they must be equipped while deployed.
Resolves YES if the criteria are met at any point after question creation and reported via verifiable media. Resolves NO shortly after close otherwise.
Longer term version:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Stralor/will-autonomous-lethal-weapons-plat-8c79c1bd6f61)
|
2023-07-30T04:21:43
|
2024-07-02T01:42:19
|
2024-07-02T01:42:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6cBJJk50AghawkCO5loU
|
Will bitcoin price hit USD120,000 in 2024?
|
Standard Chartered forecast that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 per coin by the end of next year. That underestimated the impact higher miner profitability would have on reducing the supply of Bitcoin in the marketplace, they now say, and expect the price to hit $50,000 by the end of this year before jumping to as much as $120,000 in 2024, Bloomberg reported.
|
2023-07-30T03:18:11
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-05T14:09:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dmc923LdZM04z6mYsPfu
|
Will there be a large (>10 dead) attack on Russian soil in August?
|
Needs to be large enough to not be denied by Russian authorities, but actual casualty numbers suspected at >10 by major western news outlets, do not have to come from official Russian sources. Does not need to be identified as coming from any particular actor.
Edit 2023-08-03: By "Russian soil" I mean the pre-2014 borders, i.e. excluding Crimea and other recently annexed territories.
Edit 2023-08-23: Given the current plane crash, just a brief clarification that there has to be credible reporting of external influence. Russia being the suspected perpetrator does count. Also note the requirement of >, not >= 10.
|
2023-07-30T01:41:43
|
2023-08-31T21:50:37
|
2023-08-31T21:50:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H5nCcUUDsH556qedFoUn
|
Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2025?
|
This market will resolve YES if any elecrical appliance, computer, or other device is commercially available by Jan 1, 2025, which incorporates superconductors that operate at ambient pressure above 0C without requiring active cooling (may be LK-99 or some other chemistry).
|
2023-07-29T23:34:58
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T12:49:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pb9KBmV0LxZLrHxl2kKM
|
Will OpenAI release the source code and model weights of any of its legacy GPT-3 models before 2025?
|
This market resolves YES iff OpenAI makes an announcement before 1 January 2025 that they will release the pretrained weights for "ada", "babbage", "curie", "davinci", or any model whose name ends with -001. This market resolves NO otherwise.
|
2023-07-29T21:07:40
|
2024-12-31T10:21:24
|
2024-12-31T10:21:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qqvvRPcs99mJoRH0A2TB
|
Will the word “superconductor” appear on the homepage of bbc.com between July 30 and August 6 (inclusive)
|
Will the word "superconductor" appear on bbc.com between now and the end of August 6 (UTC).
Superconductors would be accepted, superconducting or other variants not.
If unable to be verified on the live site, will be verified using the internet archive.
EDIT: To clarify, if before the deadline I can load bbc.com on chrome desktop and CTRL-F “superconductor” and I get a result then this resolves yes, i.e the word should appear as text (not in a hyperlink or image alt text for example)
|
2023-07-29T18:32:51
|
2023-08-06T18:09:57
|
2023-08-06T18:09:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jSIWXPtQSz2x3oW0o6lN
|
Will Yellow file for bankruptcy this week?
|
Will the trucking company Yellow file for bankruptcy between Sunday, July 30 and Saturday, August 5 (inclusive)?
https://apnews.com/article/yellow-corp-trucking-company-bankruptcy-d489652b6acd63dbb046047da9e2a074
[link preview]
|
2023-07-29T16:36:24
|
2023-08-05T21:59:00
|
2023-08-06T20:09:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qJXymbqdQAtQ4ZGKnjq6
|
Will the Syrian civil war end before 2025?
|
Resolves YES if the Wikipedia article for Syrian civil war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) definitively lists an end date for the war by the end of 2024 or if the majority of reputable news sources report that war in Syria has ended.
|
2023-07-29T16:24:02
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-06T18:19:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Kyc519h2ne2K2aj4VEus
|
Will Margot Robbie and Cillian Murphy present an Oscar together at the 96th Academy Awards?
|
Present as in introduce the nominees and announce the winner of a category at the ceremony, together.
|
2023-07-29T16:05:31
|
2024-03-10T19:57:11
|
2024-03-10T19:57:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7p9iUOAAJD8rEiR19Ir1
|
Will the "Last Night On Destiny's" YouTube channel hit 126K subscribers in August?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCLOPC6bOBuiSBAJ16JXLAHg
|
2023-07-29T15:47:05
|
2023-08-31T21:00:00
|
2023-08-31T21:13:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ldg0NgErVqGok7MoLwNC
|
Will any Republican win a majority in the Iowa caucuses?
|
Will any candidate win more than 50% of the votes in the Republican Iowa caucuses?
|
2023-07-29T13:20:35
|
2024-01-15T20:36:45
|
2024-01-15T20:36:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZslPs8tDRV3gAOaRQ3SL
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in one day in November 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-29T13:04:02
|
2023-12-01T23:59:00
|
2023-12-02T05:00:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9fakJCe5sOUyqS0on8yp
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in one day in September 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-29T13:03:35
|
2023-09-29T13:21:11
|
2023-09-29T13:21:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T1k9zTSTIVwCPRwEzUz6
|
Will Microsoft stock fall below $300 before 1st Jan 2024?
|
Resolves to Yes if the closing price of MSFT is less than or equal to $300 on any day before 1st January 2024.
|
2023-07-29T12:56:09
|
2023-12-29T15:35:25
|
2023-12-29T15:35:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5bsRl391tE9HMPi84zWl
|
Will the next Starship launch make it to “space” (past the Karman line)
|
This will resolve YES if the second test flight of the Starship by SpaceX gets an altitude above the Karman line.
It will not matter if the ship experiences a destruction at any point in flight. Only if the ship passes the Karman line.
Resolves whenever the next flight of the full stack of a Starship occurs.
|
2023-07-29T12:48:42
|
2023-11-18T16:52:12
|
2023-11-18T16:52:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ul1gytUiwIC6lGt3fC91
|
Will Yoko Ono be alive on January 1, 2024?
|
She's 90, withdrew from public life in 2021 and left NYC to live the rest of her life on a farm in Feb 2023.
|
2023-07-29T12:35:45
|
2023-12-31T22:43:31
|
2023-12-31T22:43:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kgNHWvlOrspOuSNtxcGR
|
Will the flashy X.com logo sign on top of the Twitter building be there until September 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-29T12:02:19
|
2023-08-08T09:11:10
|
2023-08-08T09:11:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KEfR4JUpfcKqW5kaOgMB
|
Will Google stock exceed $150 before 1st January 2024?
|
Resolves yes if and only if the closing price of GOOG (class C Alphabet stock) touches or exceeds $150 on any day before 1st January 2024.
|
2023-07-29T09:20:51
|
2023-12-29T20:21:22
|
2023-12-29T20:21:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FmRJXwBprIMc9rPVW8Yb
|
Will Andy Jassy be the CEO of Amazon on Christmas, 2023?
|
Smh.
(Entire day, everywhere on earth)
|
2023-07-29T08:52:37
|
2023-12-25T10:29:00
|
2023-12-26T05:40:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FtEsInEiquYiZsRwvKRi
|
Apple Vision Pro will sell out within 7 days of its launch
|
Despite the hefty $3500 price tag, I believe Apple's VR-headset, the Apple Vision Pro, will be immensely popular and will sell out within the first 7 days of its launch. The condition for a 'yes' outcome is if, 7 days after its launch, the product shows a prolonged delivery time (more than 14 days) or is displayed as unavailable in the U.S.
Please note, if the product launch is delayed, the closing date of this bet will also be postponed accordingly.
[image]
|
2023-07-29T08:30:28
|
2024-01-21T07:02:17
|
2024-01-21T07:02:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pktmcUAiTSKjkb4dewGc
|
Will 'Oppenheimer' win any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)
If it wins any Oscar in any category at the 96th Academy Awards, this question will resolve YES.
|
2023-07-29T08:26:14
|
2024-03-10T19:36:32
|
2024-03-10T19:36:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZhgytigdU572CChp9hzq
|
Will Ludwig Göransson win the Oscar for Best Original Score at the 96th Academy Awards for 'Oppenheimer'?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)
|
2023-07-29T00:33:23
|
2024-03-10T19:55:02
|
2024-03-10T19:55:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GeDvC2ZSDfHYBImKLfHO
|
Will the the Atlanta Braves win the 2023 world series
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-28T23:14:25
|
2023-10-12T20:24:58
|
2023-10-12T20:24:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7HqtLYGLk6sPGLRpfsGS
|
Will there be a trade involving Damian Lillard to the Miami Heat before the 2023 NBA season begins?
|
The 2023-24 NBA campaign will get started on Tuesday, October 24.
|
2023-07-28T18:22:40
|
2023-09-27T17:10:29
|
2023-09-27T17:10:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-epXRJbHoqkhEbyIkJ0nW
|
Will regular Ukrainian forces reach the city limits of Melitopol during 2023?
|
I.e. not partisans or special forces.
|
2023-07-28T18:15:39
|
2023-12-31T04:59:00
|
2024-01-01T01:02:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gUzCe5f2ayLARAYslMSt
|
Dogecoin will be traded above $100, before september 2023 ?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-28T17:38:14
|
2023-08-31T15:59:00
|
2023-09-01T08:08:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ApTCG4emHg5rGdrMrr9Y
|
Will Wagner Group invade poland before september 2023 ?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-28T17:25:01
|
2023-08-31T15:59:00
|
2023-09-04T00:35:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d9uPEtcYh7YPZIlZnmOe
|
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season see at least 5 major hurricanes?
|
Major hurricanes are defined by NOAA as tropical storms with a Saffir-Simpson category of 3-5 and sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
This question will resolve to YES if there are 5 or more major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere by the end of 2023. And it will resolve to NO if there are 4 or fewer.
|
2023-07-28T16:56:43
|
2023-12-05T07:59:00
|
2023-12-05T08:26:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bh386pY5fDqLe68cVwrK
|
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the youth turnout rate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election be above 50%?
|
The youth voter turnout rate is defined as the percentage of eligible voters aged 18-29 who cast ballots in the presidential election. The question will resolve to YES if the youth turnout rate is above 50% per CIRCLE at Tufts University based on the mid-point of the 2-week estimate (or whichever the latest), 2 weeks after the Election Day (November 5, 2024).
https://circle.tufts.edu/
[link preview]
|
2023-07-28T15:46:35
|
2024-11-19T07:59:00
|
2024-11-19T16:32:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tWDZdmV4dDanJjjwySBW
|
Midjourney can create correct text in images by 12/1/2023
|
On 12/1/2023 I will use the best available paid model of midjourney (top paid or best plan available under $100/month) to run this prompt 5 times "a picture of a large overgrown concrete building with a large neon sign that says Pizza on top"
This will produce 20 images (5 mosaics of 4)
If the word Pizza is spelled correctly in at least 10/20 of the resulting images, the claim resolves YES. If not, it's NO. If the claim is tested successfully before this final test, it can immediately resolve YES, but I won't test it more than once per day.
Below is a sample of the images for that prompt today, 3/16/2023
Only the lower right image from the last of the 5 would count, so in total today's score would be 1/20.
[image][image][image][image][image]
|
2023-07-28T14:55:09
|
2023-12-01T23:59:00
|
2023-12-02T07:55:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NnBVlaBYUMQfbLAxQyKx
|
Will Elon Musk put "e/acc" in his handle or bio before Dec 31, 2023?
|
Yes if Elon Musk publicly identifies as an effective accelerationist at any point in the year 2023 by putting "e/acc" or "effective accelerationist" in his handle or bio on Twitter/X.
No otherwise.
|
2023-07-28T14:26:23
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-03T03:57:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YFXG9IhbY04VgyP7dzsR
|
Will Donald Trump use his Twitter / X.com account before 2024?
|
Use as in posting something with the account @realDonaldTrump
|
2023-07-28T13:52:21
|
2023-09-01T15:37:50
|
2023-09-01T15:37:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fGYXHWdUMyK7BWvR1D49
|
Will 'Barbie' gross over $95m for the 2nd weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 28 - July 30) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
If there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-07-28T11:04:04
|
2023-07-31T15:27:57
|
2023-07-31T15:27:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-epmEOjgX24Bd1VFQa2x8
|
Will there be an active volcanic eruption in Iceland on the 31st of December 2023? 🌋
|
This will be resolved based on reporting from the Icelandic Met Office.
|
2023-07-28T10:58:30
|
2023-12-31T16:00:00
|
2023-12-31T17:46:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0GycbA8t57dAyNexKnsG
|
Will two or more drivers receive a DNF in the Las Vegas F1 Grand Prix?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-28T10:56:54
|
2023-11-19T21:58:38
|
2023-11-19T21:58:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TkJfE9XTx2mRMqF00zSg
|
Will Dianne Feinstein complete the rest of her term?
|
In recent months the senator from California has exhibited declining cognitive function. Viral videos show her confused after returning from a medical absence and being told what to say during a vote by a staffer.
She is not seeking re-election after this term. This question will resolve negatively if she, for any reason, does not complete her senate term. The question will resolve positively if she successfully completes this term.
|
2023-07-28T10:28:51
|
2023-09-29T08:21:07
|
2023-09-29T08:21:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t5cwzKPufoNxpfjXli3g
|
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2024?
|
The "AI-generated dialogue" is any dialogue generated live during play using artificial intelligence, such as GPT-4. If the developers of a game say that their scripts were co-written or fully written with AI beforehand, this would not count. Mods do not count, only the game as released by the developers.
To make verification easy for whether a game is "critically acclaimed" I will check Wikipedia's section for 2024 games that won awards at awards shows or achieved high scores from Metacritic (i.e. 90+).
See also:
[markets]
|
2023-07-28T10:13:27
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:03:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-txIp2TNOuT7zQ2MBxbZc
|
Will Threads rebrand before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-28T09:17:58
|
2024-01-01T01:40:52
|
2024-01-01T01:40:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3Sb1lpaT4FUxXMfrKOPm
|
Will the bird be back? (Will x.com rebrand to Twitter?) ($100M subsidy)
|
By the end of 2024.
An announcement of the change would count
|
2023-07-28T09:12:29
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-03T08:44:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VH3BE4Plr38PQfQCaD2U
|
Will Twitter / X.com provide voice and video call services before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-28T08:53:26
|
2023-10-25T21:59:48
|
2023-10-25T21:59:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uuSahXy8BYEfjBXGnpQn
|
Will Andrew McCalip demonstrate the Meissner effect in LK-99?
|
Resolves YES iff Andrew McCalip [0][1] succesfully synthesizes LK-99 and demonstrates the Meissner effect by market close.
[0] https://www.twitch.tv/andrewmccalip
[1] https://twitter.com/andrewmccalip/status/1684615817600880640
|
2023-07-28T08:43:24
|
2023-08-06T14:59:00
|
2023-08-10T13:25:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZJwndpdibwnpg4wqBDbf
|
Will the "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation..." pre-print be retracted from arxiv by the end of 2023?
|
It appears possible or likely that the OTHER arxiv pre-print "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (the 3 author one - https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was uploaded without certain authors' permissions, and may be retracted for non-technical reasons.
This market refers to the 6-author pre-print, "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric pressure and mechanism" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) uploaded on the same day.
This market resolves positively if the pre-print is retracted from arxiv for any reason by 11:59pm on December 31st, 2023.
|
2023-07-28T07:33:11
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:00:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t4f9LRe4RCI1XZLJCu02
|
Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Coinbase withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Coinbase is insolvent by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.”
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Coinbase withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority users are unable to withdraw their USDC, BTC and/or ETH, from Coinbase.
If Coinbase suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of December (e.g Coinbase halts token withdrawals on December 30, 2024, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (Dec 30 - Jan 6, 2025, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to official information released by Coinbase, the leadership of Coinbase, and/or official representatives of Coinbase (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:59 am
Jan 2, 12:20pm: Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2022? → Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2023?
|
2023-07-28T06:09:46
|
2024-12-30T15:59:00
|
2025-01-03T11:25:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Xf8ZTWKdFvuL5NJzRpjF
|
Will Each Team Score? ⚽ Portugal vs United States
|
Women's World Cup
8/1 Match
Will each team score one or more goals over the course of the match?
|
2023-07-28T05:11:07
|
2023-08-01T02:00:00
|
2023-08-01T04:58:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cS1hm4l05vICaQeLfBoE
|
Will a new species of Monkey (Primate) be discovered by 28 July 2024?
|
List of all primates (monkeys): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_primates
This means any previously un-classifed species after 28 July 2023.
|
2023-07-28T03:20:29
|
2024-07-28T04:59:00
|
2024-07-30T05:05:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-29oVWkzcrMy6mWsqf64k
|
Will OpenAI release the weights of any new models in 2023?
|
I'm using "new" to mean "weights aren't released at time of writing the question", not that it has to be an entirely new model. So if they release the weights to GPT-3 or 4, that would resolve "yes". If people feel strongly that it should only apply to completely new models that have their weights released, I'll re-evaluate.
|
2023-07-27T23:47:31
|
2023-11-06T15:23:25
|
2023-11-06T15:23:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pUovZJ4W7Ovo2dBYuK8F
|
Will governments around the world have announced massive public spending into superconductor research by 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-27T22:44:01
|
2024-01-01T21:59:00
|
2024-01-03T09:38:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V797wTOHFuQKLSTOjDFp
|
Will Ukraine get F-16 fighters early 2024?
|
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/23/7164278/
[link preview]Resolution: early - means before 1 June, 2024
Gets - by official confirmation by NATO country.
|
2023-07-27T22:18:41
|
2024-06-02T13:59:00
|
2024-06-03T08:04:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XaSCJjYhKle2YQNUeujo
|
Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?
|
This bet assumes Robert F Kennedy Jr loses the Democratic primary. The question is does he announce himself as an Independent candidate and is he on more than 5 states' ballots in the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
2023-07-27T21:44:15
|
2024-07-01T21:05:10
|
2024-07-01T21:05:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gl8wXJ1l7fM4gl9htC5H
|
Will Erling Haaland win the Premier League golden boot (awarded for most league goals) in the 2023-24 season?
|
Assume that a shared golden boot also resolves to yes.
|
2023-07-27T20:11:55
|
2024-05-19T10:52:36
|
2024-05-19T10:52:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uldMQ3G6MI7WfrxVFgiB
|
Will Messi become Inter Miami's all-time top goalscorer in 2023?
|
>29 goals
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Inter_Miami_CF_records_and_statistics#Top_goalscorers
|
2023-07-27T19:51:43
|
2023-11-01T07:50:54
|
2023-11-01T07:50:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7v0Wb1dVbdoSajF9xbgi
|
Will Xi Jinping attend the APEC meeting in San Francisco in November?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-27T19:12:41
|
2023-11-15T07:59:00
|
2023-11-16T14:53:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iNhVRF2gNK6tNIBu7JuX
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 20?
|
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 20 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/politics/read-trump-indictment-classified-documents/index.html).
The Stormy Daniels hush money case (March 30)
See https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/
Details:
Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges.
For grand jury indictments, this question uses the date when the grand jury votes to indict.
There may be some time between when this vote happens and when the indictment is publicly reported, so the question will remain open until slightly after the specified deadline.
In the event the date charges were brought is unknown, this question will instead use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications
[link preview]
|
2023-07-27T18:32:10
|
2023-08-01T15:33:45
|
2023-08-01T15:33:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CrykFCVbNFr84dHurh5E
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 13?
|
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 13 (Eastern time).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/politics/read-trump-indictment-classified-documents/index.html).
The Stormy Daniels hush money case (March 30)
See https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/
Details:
Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges.
For grand jury indictments, this question uses the date when the grand jury votes to indict.
There may be some time between when this vote happens and when the indictment is publicly reported, so the question will remain open until slightly after the specified deadline.
In the event the date charges were brought is unknown, this question will instead use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications
[link preview]
|
2023-07-27T18:30:36
|
2023-08-01T15:33:29
|
2023-08-01T15:33:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Uu5uHNDOSjxctkqUxur4
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before August 6?
|
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump before August 6 (ET).
Trump has already been charged with:
The classified documents case, including the original charges (June 8) and additional charges (July 27 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/politics/read-trump-indictment-classified-documents/index.html).
The Stormy Daniels hush money case (March 30)
See https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/
Details:
Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges.
For grand jury indictments, this question uses the date when the grand jury votes to indict.
There may be some time between when this vote happens and when the indictment is publicly reported, so the question will remain open until slightly after the specified deadline.
In the event the date charges were brought is unknown, this question will instead use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications
[link preview]
|
2023-07-27T18:29:54
|
2023-08-01T15:33:09
|
2023-08-01T15:33:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gBivyisEW9VM6yakRpBj
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged AGAIN (a fourth time) in July?
|
Resolves YES if new criminal charges are brought against former president of the United States Donald J. Trump in July 2023 (ET), other than the additional charges in the classified documents case announced on July 27 (https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/politics/read-trump-indictment-classified-documents/index.html). Otherwise NO.
Criminal charges include grand jury indictment or other charges.
For grand jury indictments, this question uses the date when the grand jury votes to indict.
There may be some time between when this vote happens and when the indictment is publicly reported, so the question will remain open until slightly after the specified deadline.
In the event the date charges were brought is unknown, this question will instead use the earliest time the charges are unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications
Background
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/trump-special-counsel-probe/index.html
“Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-27T17:05:38
|
2023-08-01T20:59:00
|
2023-08-03T04:22:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PNVBuohOnYA4a6F4a7fu
|
Will President Biden pardon Hunter Biden?
|
At any point, market will expire if he is pardoned or either die and extended until then.
|
2023-07-27T16:23:04
|
2024-12-01T16:38:36
|
2024-12-01T16:38:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PHhNkN2VoDPstTZR4voo
|
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before end of 2023?
|
Mitch McConnell is 80 years old and has been the Senate Republican Leader since 2007, and is the all time longest serving Party Leader in the Senate.
The question resolves as YES if Mitch McConnell resigns, is ousted by his caucus, dies, or for any other reason loses Party Leader status for the Senate Republicans before the end of 2023.
|
2023-07-27T14:51:11
|
2023-12-31T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T01:24:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hQwCVTwABXSaqRQU20x4
|
Will Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial (including sentencing) conclude before the end of 2023?
|
Counts as YES:
Acquittal within 2023
Conviction & Sentencing within 2023
Plea Deal within 2023
Counts as NO:
Mistrial
Postponement of trial
Dropping of charges
SBF's death or incapacity
Trial ongoing or awaiting sentencing at end of 2023
|
2023-07-27T13:36:47
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:34:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o5HQRO252gO8413cfUvI
|
Will any general election debates be held for the 2024 US presidential election?
|
Will there be any debates including both the Democratic and Republican candidates for President leading up to the 2024 US presidential election? The debate need not be sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates, and may include third-party candidates as well, but must be broadcast live with both the Republican and Democratic Party's official candidate attending. Attending virtually still counts as long as they're participating live (i.e. not just playing pre-recorded answers; that would not count).
|
2023-07-27T13:32:48
|
2024-07-01T12:00:59
|
2024-07-01T12:00:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ScU9e2B5fn6SxwlMVQ83
|
Will Scott Aaronson mention LK-99 on his blog through August?
|
on shtetl optimized, in a post (not a comment)
|
2023-07-27T13:29:37
|
2023-09-01T23:59:00
|
2023-09-02T08:41:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4SvYLKqVzXZclZUd3YNh
|
Will we discover empirical results in the LK-99 papers were fake by the end of the year?
|
Regardless of whether LK-99 results can or cannot be replicated, there is uncertainty as to whether key evidence adduced to claims of its superconductivity in preprints (such as: conductivity data, videos of levitation) were produced through academic fraud. This market will resolve as yes should a major news outlet report that there is credible evidence that data in either of the two papers was produced by fraudulent means by the end of 2023, and otherwise as no.
|
2023-07-27T12:56:07
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:08:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Csc6skxCyPEaODrn4sx2
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in one day in August 2023?
|
Perhaps... on the day the room temperature superconductivity announcement is confirmed?
|
2023-07-27T11:58:08
|
2023-09-01T23:59:00
|
2023-09-02T08:43:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-szul3CdG3JR9H3rNMBJZ
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 5% in one day in August 2023?
|
Perhaps... on the day the room temperature superconductivity announcement is confirmed?
|
2023-07-27T11:57:53
|
2023-09-01T23:59:00
|
2023-09-02T08:43:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2Zgo0rCIMotarfTMpTXS
|
By the end of 2023, will there be a new international organization about AI within the United Nations System ?
|
A specialized agency or a related organization recognized by the UN on this page https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-system
|
2023-07-27T11:41:20
|
2024-01-01T07:23:36
|
2024-01-01T07:23:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ODzcIWIgDGwE7scdpj81
|
Will the first replication attempt confirm LK-99 is a room temp superconductor?
|
This is a mirror of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/ and resolves the same.
Copy of the resolution criteria:
Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
This question will resolve as YES if the first attempted replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that is published (pre-print acceptable) confirms the main findings. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.
A confirmatory replication would have to include the following:
Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99
Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (127 C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting
Confirmation that the resistance drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature
Fine Print
Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of an attempted replication before July 1, 2024
If the pre-print is withdrawn from arxiv and a new version of this paper, by one or more of the original authors and which satisfies these resolution criteria, is not published before July 1, 2024, and no independent replication has been performed before July 1, 2024, this question will resolve as NO. A new version of the original paper, as described, will not be considered to be a replication. If the paper is withdrawn and then the first independent replication is published before a new version of the paper is published, this question will resolve according to the results of the independent replication.
Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear
[link preview]
|
2023-07-27T11:30:15
|
2023-08-01T04:55:20
|
2023-08-01T04:55:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7B7gGRjh0tx6P5LI0hEE
|
Will the AFD get the second largest share of the votes in the next Bavarian State election
|
The next Bavarian state election will be held around the 8.th October 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Bavarian_state_election#:~:text=The%202023%20Bavarian%20state%20election,President%20of%20Bavaria%20Markus%20S%C3%B6der.
currently the Green Party is still ahead
https://politpro.eu/en/bavaria
Can the Afd catch up until
October?
Will be closed 2 Weeks later, if they move the date.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-27T10:21:55
|
2023-10-14T04:36:24
|
2023-10-14T04:36:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JPWj8xVQ0s0LfpuCPS3z
|
Will any G20 leader announce the existence of non human intelligence in our solar system by the end of 2024?
|
Nothing already widely accepted or created by homo sapiens counts as NHI. Dogs and human made AI doesn't count. Nor does the loch Ness monster or big foot, unless they turn out to roughly match or exceed human intelligence.
But time traveling ghosts or genetic relatives who live in the earth's core would count as much as classic aliens.
Also 'leader' means president or prime minister or equivalent.
|
2023-07-27T10:10:02
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-02-18T05:48:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X9mJTvq25sHDhOZOMyfa
|
Will Sam Altman be imitated on SNL by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves positive if Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) is being imitated on Saturday Night Live. It counts if it's posted as "cut for time" on the SNL youtube channel.
|
2023-07-27T09:52:06
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T21:40:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9U9GAblqm6g8bYBFBsoF
|
Will Elon Musk get twitter.com to redirect to x.com by 1st January 2024?
|
variant for next year: https://manifold.markets/RobinBruce/will-elon-musk-get-twittercom-to-re?r=Um9iaW5CcnVjZQ
|
2023-07-27T09:14:09
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T04:26:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qYLBKTzkkn7B4fwHLzJ1
|
Will SBF be back in jail by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-27T06:51:31
|
2023-08-11T17:38:38
|
2023-08-11T17:38:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w33RfdolEbRE6srH5Xo9
|
Will Mitch McConnell still be a senator in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-27T03:16:36
|
2023-12-31T15:01:00
|
2024-01-01T04:25:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tAxv8sKAdXDhrN5Z7sEm
|
Will any of the top-48 longest streak holders lose their streak before October 2023?
|
I recently learned how to find users' streaks from the API (thanks to Chris Billington) and was surprised to find myself at No. 50. Since then (two days ago) I've moved up to 49 because somebody above me lost their streak. Will this happen again before October?
I'll resolve a couple of days late. Partly because I can't quite get my head around time zones and partly because if you resolved immediately you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between somebody who's just not refreshed their streak yet and somebody who was in the process of losing it.
Bots are excluded.
I may bet in this market.
Edit: Turns out "streak forgiveness" is a thing: an automatic feature where if you miss a day, rather than your streak resetting, your "streak forgiveness" goes down by one, with your streak only resetting if your "streak forgiveness" reaches zero. You get one "streak forgiveness" each month. I think the best thing for me to do is to run the API code a couple of times on the 30th September and 1st October, and maybe once on 2nd October. Hopefully the list of streaks will be the same in all runs (up to a day or two), but if not, and if somebody has dropped out of the top 48 over the course of those few runs, I'll try and work out when they actually lost their streak. If I can't determine for sure whether they dropped before the end of 30th September (my timezone, UK), I may resolve PROB. If I do this, I'll explain my evidence, my reasoning, and the percentage I intend to resolve to, and give a chance for people to point out any mistakes I may have made.
(A previous version of the description had something about "if Manifold introduce streak freezes or similar". I've taken it out now that I know about "streak forgiveness", but some comments might seem weird out of context now. I think you can view the edit history of the description.)
|
2023-07-27T03:11:03
|
2023-08-05T13:37:28
|
2023-08-05T13:37:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n4W3a6gOE4O9fYqq6Pg5
|
The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-27T03:08:08
|
2024-09-24T17:09:51
|
2024-09-24T17:09:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GYvsdR4F1WPsTMftR1ix
|
Will any material, strong evidence of aliens be provided to the public/press by end of November?
|
There are currently congressional hearings on the topic, in which a former Air Force officer David Grusch claimed that a) the USA has had a program to try to catch UFOs for decades, and b) that they have occassionally succeeded and at least once found a non-human biological tissue.
I am asking - is this bullshit? Will we have real evidence in the next 4 months?
https://apnews.com/article/ufos-uaps-congress-whistleblower-spy-aliens-ba8a8cfba353d7b9de29c3d906a69ba7
[link preview]The question resolves YES if there is material evidence (i.e. not eyewitness accounts), released through official channels (i.e. government agency, not whistleblowers) to the general public.
That would include:
material probes from the craft
biological probes or autopsy reports
possibly actual high quality video, if it's not the usual shaky 5 pixels and actually shows something that is undoubtedly an UFO
any other information that cannot be easily faked
|
2023-07-27T00:21:43
|
2023-11-27T13:00:42
|
2023-11-27T13:14:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4BAlus2pxfQjbADShahJ
|
Will a human die in orbit before 2025?
|
They have to be in a stable orbit, or transitioning from one stable orbit to another, including around other planetary bodies, not ascending to orbit or on a suborbital flight path, or re-entering the atmosphere.
|
2023-07-27T00:16:31
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-20T18:55:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uPhhZmmATYoXnaAYtNTI
|
Will Ilya Sutskever leave open AI before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-26T23:55:58
|
2024-01-01T23:59:00
|
2024-01-02T00:08:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8RUjPlzOXK2OdflBmas0
|
Will Oppenheimer have a theatrical release in Japan in 2023?
|
Question resolves to "yes" if it shows up on IMDB's Japan upcoming releases, scheduled for a day before 2024-01-01, and then goes on to actually play in 1+ theaters on that date.
Question resolves to "no" otherwise.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-26T21:53:27
|
2023-12-31T06:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:28:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3VJCvjMlmtwp1cmg43Cv
|
Will the iPhone 15 have an action button?
|
This can be in addition to the curren button sets or a replacement. Must be a physical button.
Edit : we will go with the pro or the non pro having the button as the criteria.
Also, whatever phone is released in 2023, if Apple breaks the ‘15’ name for some reason
|
2023-07-26T18:19:39
|
2023-11-01T20:59:00
|
2023-11-02T17:15:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eaCjqjITTYRu7Hy1gVGq
|
Will Worldcoin have scanned 3 million irises by the end of August 2023?
|
As shown by number of unique humans on Worldcoin/World ID sign-ups at https://worldcoin.org/home
|
2023-07-26T18:01:16
|
2023-08-31T07:29:00
|
2023-08-31T17:15:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3GpljRlk3QIVO30NuIy8
|
Will Valve Software announce a game called "Neon Prime" by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-26T17:59:36
|
2023-12-31T10:26:20
|
2023-12-31T10:26:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J1MQ2hN7PXw8kRcICDM2
|
Will Twitter/X have video calling in Q3 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-26T16:42:18
|
2023-10-01T05:59:00
|
2023-10-01T13:20:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-psr7IRurMI9yDmzdvnGx
|
Will the coup in Niger succeed?
|
This question will resolve to yes if the military coup is able to consolidate reasonable political power in the next month, avoiding both infighting and a civil war.
|
2023-07-26T16:39:59
|
2023-08-25T23:59:00
|
2023-08-26T08:42:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nptbZzFXhvRRHbnXHYci
|
Will President Bazoum of Niger be released from detainment and still be president by August 26th 2023?
|
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66320895
[link preview]
|
2023-07-26T16:37:20
|
2023-08-27T23:59:00
|
2023-08-28T17:54:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tV8TUnUEXherIZzyoywQ
|
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before August 15, 2023?
|
The materials used in the paper are far cheaper and more available than previous ones, purchasable from Amazon for a few hundred USD. Given that, plus the magnitude of the discovery at play, we would expect to see an onslaught of people trying to replicate in the next few weeks.
As for why August 15 -- that's my birthday :)
|
2023-07-26T12:30:40
|
2023-08-14T13:59:00
|
2023-08-14T19:52:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AJXdCoopFf6hrqp10yeo
|
Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be replicated by October 1st?
|
Here is the paper in question: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12008.pdf. Replication will mean either a peer-reviewed publication of room temperature and pressure superconductor or general expert consensus that the result is real (e.g. a flood of Archive results that do not involve any of the 3 authors on the original paper and are being discussed and analyzed on twitter without significant blow-back that the results are fake/wrong).
|
2023-07-26T11:28:49
|
2023-10-01T23:59:00
|
2023-10-02T10:18:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yYdqJMLryEJx7frj47j9
|
Will it rain during the race in the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian grand prix
|
Yes if there is any rainfall during the race, not counting a wet track at start from previous rain
|
2023-07-26T10:39:01
|
2023-07-30T07:14:28
|
2023-07-30T07:14:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rctqd0ZaxeeiHP93VP5n
|
Will the room temp superconductor paper replicate in 2023?
|
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) are replicated at least two times by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of these replications.
If there is ambiguity as to whether replications under consideration for the resolution of this market are credible, this may remain open until July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, to allow for the publication of any replication results in a reputable journal. One such publication will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If no such paper is published by this delayed resolution time, this market will resolve to "No".
[link preview]
|
2023-07-26T10:37:34
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:03:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bozuf5i1j5dyYn8e5k0q
|
Will Diablo IV get above a 5.0 on the user score on metacritic by the end of 2023?
|
Diablo was review bombed down to a 2.2 as of the time of this question for their season 1 patch. Will they patch the game enough to appease the users to raise the user score to above a 5.0
|
2023-07-26T10:23:06
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:10:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S1JzUyhBphhmBZF6UTLr
|
Will another lab post results testing superconductivity (or lack of superconductivity) in LK-99 within a week?
|
Resolves YES if an experimental paper on LK-99 is posted to the arxiv from a separate research group by August 2.
|
2023-07-26T10:22:04
|
2023-07-31T19:06:12
|
2023-07-31T20:06:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rZm82x1GyTZfccp70jk8
|
Will Valve Officially Launch Counter-Strike 2 by the end of August?
|
Valve must publicly launch CS2 to all users before the end of August for this to settle yet.
|
2023-07-26T10:16:03
|
2023-09-01T06:21:36
|
2023-09-01T06:21:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4n6wNjL026dtaslDCsM4
|
Will NVDA Bypass the Market Cap of Amazon by August 26 2023
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-26T09:58:47
|
2023-08-25T23:59:00
|
2023-09-01T18:31:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oESYcoedLE1Ya0ATYuhy
|
Will this tech earnings season disappoint?
|
This question will resolve to yes if NASDAQ closes below 15000 on August 18th
|
2023-07-26T09:29:40
|
2023-08-18T20:59:00
|
2023-08-28T12:32:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-khUuIaOxjIzllVvf2yFr
|
Will London see another sunny day >28°C before the end of summer?
|
Conditions are that it's above 28°C and that it is sunny without noteworthy cloud cover.
We use the meteorological end of summer, the 31st of August.
|
2023-07-26T08:58:25
|
2023-09-01T15:59:00
|
2023-09-02T01:00:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UfItmrLoJ1E9SIsn1wKD
|
Will Barbie have 90% OR higher Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score On August 20th 2023?(1,000Ṁ Subsidy)
|
Official Data From Rotten Tomatoes Will be Used.
Market Will Close Noon ET Sunday August 20th 2023.
Market Will Resolve 11:59pm ET Sunday August 20th 2023.
Market will NOT resolve earlier than the time stated.
What is the importance of August 20th you may ask: It is the 30th day since the release of the film on July 21st 2023.
Start of market:
[image]This is a continuation of the following market by @JackHarmening
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JackHarmening/will-barbies-achieve-90-or-higher-o)Edit: 07/27/2023 6:30am (For Clarification Purposes To A Trader Question)
SPECIFICS
A dip below 90% between now & market close time would not matter, I would still wait until 11:59pm ET Sunday August 20th 2023 and use the score that RT give at the time given for resolution.
It can go up or down between Market creation date and Market close, but if it maintains the 90% or higher when it is time to resolve: this resolves YES, if it is below 90% at the time specified for resolution , than I will be resolving NO.
The number shown by RT is the final absolute number that will be used to resolve the market, there will be no mathmatical equations used other than whatever RT uses to determine the score visually shown.
Updated Question to reflect clarification:
Old-Will Barbie maintain 90% OR higher Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score Until End Of Sunday August 20th 2023? (500Ṁ Subsidy)
New- Will Barbie have 90% OR higher Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score On August 20th 2023?(1,000Ṁ Subsidy)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-07-26T04:05:17
|
2023-08-20T09:00:00
|
2023-08-20T15:05:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hbs1u4WuTYmMMbG2wx2a
|
Will there be a federal election in Canada in 2023?
|
Resolves yes if Canadians go to the federal polls in 2023. An election called in 2023, but in which actual voting occurs in 2024 would resolve no.
|
2023-07-26T02:52:47
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T01:33:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KbYlP1q6SkK4lxPqZid3
|
Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted? (2023)
|
Resolves YES if the following arxiv link labeled 'Main paper' is updated to include a retraction of the original results, in 2023. NO otherwise.
Small experimental adjustments or clarifications won't count. The paper is allowed to produce a genuine new discovery, as long as the claim to have produced room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductors is retracted. If there is a disagreement among the authors, any author registering a retraction with arxiv is sufficient. If any authors request a retraction and arxiv does not comply, I may still accept it as a retraction as long as arxiv confirms they received the request.
Statements by journalists or other scientists won't count.
Main paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
|
2023-07-26T02:44:09
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-02T15:01:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g6Bxe0TPAfGElTXOLl2b
|
Will Apple launch iPhone 15 Pro in 2023?
|
The answer would be YES if Apple launches iPhone 15 Pro in 2023. The product name should be exactly iPhone 15 Pro. Otherwise, the answer is NO.
|
2023-07-26T01:10:55
|
2023-11-07T17:28:24
|
2023-11-07T17:28:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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