id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-lIJi5A8sO30HsRuaNAsp | Will Bitcoin touch $17500 before the year 2023 ends? | Price to be considered is Coinmarketcap's main webpage. Price glitches not considered. | 2023-07-26T00:20:46 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:08:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nBaJdBfraPBkwkGvgnpF | Will the LK-99 room temp, superconductivity pre-print replicate in August | August 2023 or earlier
Shorter term version of
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?17%
and will resolve similarly unless there are gross irregularities
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
... | 2023-07-25T23:13:10 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-09-02T08:42:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4jr8qZJQPd5F5VdvuKGD | Will LK-99 be in commercial use by the end of 2024 | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5wNeyt5yvpEP9BBc/the-first-room-temperature-ambient-pressure-superconductor
What might be a major energetic discovery was just announced. Will it have real life implications soon? | 2023-07-25T23:12:00 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-04T02:40:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-248t0u45GbdaQpAuDOZ2 | Will the LK-99 room temp superconductivity pre-print replicate in 2023 | Shorter term version of @/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre and will r solve similarly unless there are gross irregularities
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
[link preview] | 2023-07-25T23:10:10 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:09:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Unbdk6IG2Y1cTqk4cOMG | Will DeSantis fall to third place in Republican primary polling this year? | Will DeSantis be in third place in 538's primary polling averages at any point in 2023? | 2023-07-25T21:05:01 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:17:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kE3s25Im16P5lcnjWOgh | Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024? | See https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008.
Resolves "yes" if reproduced by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper and published in a reputable peer-reviewed journal before the start of 2025 UTC.
[link preview] | 2023-07-25T19:45:46 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:03:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j6UV268NksJudcT9zvdc | Will Vivek Ramaswamy reach 25% or higher in the national polls for the Republican primary by December 1, 2023. | As meaured by the average of polls reported by https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
[link preview] | 2023-07-25T19:27:09 | 2023-12-01T20:59:00 | 2023-12-03T19:37:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lZ4qNIy5wimn9bkUQtsY | Will Apple officially announce the iPhone Ultra in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-25T17:44:02 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:42:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JuhMxrKUrWU5Aboy2zMy | Will Apple officially announce the iPhone Ultra in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-25T17:43:21 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2023-12-31T11:36:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OlGXVx60s2I5f8UbMiF1 | Will a hurricane make landfall anywhere in the continental US before the end of August? | The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty but I will not wait until the next year's NHC report which sometimes includes reassessments.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone w... | 2023-07-25T16:19:24 | 2023-08-30T04:55:40 | 2023-08-30T04:55:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yXyKRryZwBMCDO36VNZS | Will future tropical storm Emily develop by August 15? | The next named tropical storm to develop in the Atlantic will be named Emily.
Resolves according to classification by the National Hurricane Center. | 2023-07-25T16:16:16 | 2023-08-15T20:59:00 | 2023-08-16T03:01:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HFJMt6PJKXziaFdc4p9b | Will Ukraine be promised or provided ATACMS in 2023? | Resolves YES immediately if before the closing date, there is a credible official statement or mainstream news reports that Ukraine’s military (including aligned paramilitary forces) will receive or has received ATACMS missiles for ongoing war purposes.
Resolves NO otherwise.
OSINT reports may serve as proof, but the... | 2023-07-25T14:28:25 | 2023-10-17T11:08:15 | 2023-10-17T11:08:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-paIE1N2MQoF0wpKjmFzh | Is the room temperature superconductor paper legit? | https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
[link preview] | 2023-07-25T14:22:51 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:47:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1sfbjcTu6zgqjCVjqWA2 | Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? | Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
Update 2023-08-05:
Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have wr... | 2023-07-25T13:53:13 | 2025-01-01T05:24:41 | 2025-01-01T17:21:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GWPeaRStAN4NqwEuS6Ic | Will we have "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" before 2024? | The paper "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12008.pdf claims to have discovered a very simple room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Resolves YES if by the end of the year there are multiple independent replications of the claims in the ... | 2023-07-25T13:41:58 | 2023-12-31T10:47:20 | 2023-12-31T10:47:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OttvozaVRgC7LsXaUdxF | Will the Women's World Cup final be decided by penalty kicks? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-25T12:48:17 | 2023-08-20T05:03:57 | 2023-08-20T05:03:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qN7pYuB8YhGLoqVUCFNa | AI Psychic Hotline by end of 2024? | Similar to @/firstuserhere/ai-hotline-by-2023-end by must be specifically a psychic hotline. | 2023-07-25T10:43:15 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:08:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-95XeTwOhZuQ5swAnpCtR | Will the winner of the Women's World Cup come from Europe? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-25T07:43:50 | 2023-08-16T05:00:32 | 2023-08-16T05:00:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6sFWb95jlUBPiD3u4ChH | Will Mbappe go to play for Al Hilal after PSG? | The Saudi Arabian pro league club Al Hilal recently offered Kylian Mbappe a world record fee for him to join their roster.
Crucially, this deal would reportedly allow him to continue his plans to join Real Madrid in 2024.
This market will resolve YES if, after his current tenure at PSG, the first team Mbappe plays ... | 2023-07-25T05:29:43 | 2024-06-09T07:22:43 | 2024-06-09T07:22:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W2lTWDpvObmG62igsQtt | Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-25T05:04:58 | 2024-11-06T19:42:32 | 2024-11-06T19:42:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rWCO2NXMqBRQWOVKvNRo | Will the candidate who wins Arizona win the 2024 POTUS election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-25T04:58:03 | 2024-11-12T09:08:32 | 2024-11-12T09:08:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g7SJ4nJYdssQeXPL1Z7X | Will X (was Twitter) be renamed in the next year? | Will the microblogging service currently known as X, which was formerly known as Twitter, change names again before the end of August 2024?
Resolves YES if the service known as X, hosted at x.com, undergoes a rebrand to become any other brand name, including Twitter. This rebrand does require continuity of service wit... | 2023-07-25T04:45:06 | 2024-08-31T15:59:00 | 2024-08-31T21:58:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-arOCOe5qo0nmgKYSAAXf | Will a significant security flaw be discovered in the WorldCoin Protocol before 2024? | This market resolves YES if a significant security flaw is published and confirmed by security experts before 2024. If a qualifying flaw is discovered and is then swiftly and successfully patched such that the vulnerability is extinguished entirely in short order, this market still resolves YES.
A "significant" securi... | 2023-07-24T21:27:42 | 2023-10-18T22:30:51 | 2023-10-18T22:30:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RDhm19T53AUVaXKIJLty | Will Elon rename Twitter Blue to a product with "Balls" in its name anytime before the end of 2023? | https://twitter.com/ElonMuskAOC/status/1683321418317205504
[image]To resolve "YES",, the new product must have "Balls" in its title.
For example
X Blue Balls"
X Gold Balls"
Premium Creator Balls
The product can briefly have "Balls" in its name, and reverted back after a bit in production etc.. similar to the man... | 2023-07-24T20:51:11 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:49:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m5toOAEFEESryAZqWnQo | Will Nintendo announce a new Mario Kart game in 2024? | Main series Mario Kart games only - DLC, Remasters or Re-releases (like 8 Deluxe) or Tour (or any other mobile games) do not count. Announcement only. | 2023-07-24T19:30:23 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-02T19:15:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MUB2BFSV7TMTnpgJr9At | Will Netanyahu remain Israel's PM until the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if Netanyahu continues to be Israel's PM through the end of 2024, NO otherwise.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-netanyahu-remain-israels-pm-un)Update 2024-29-12 (PST): - Acting Prime Minister substitutions do not impact the resolution of this market. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2023-07-24T18:55:51 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T17:04:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7affH5xZKC9CQnorgjty | Will Destiny vote for Biden in the next presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-24T18:35:44 | 2024-12-02T15:10:28 | 2024-12-02T15:10:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C2XfUxkkLSZeNdbSGshd | 2023: Will X become Twitter again? | If the old logo and name come back in 2023, this will resolve to YES. | 2023-07-24T17:44:05 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:02:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gBneick4ouZuGORoaW8W | Will the SALT Tax Deduction Limitation in the United States be changed by Congressional action before the end of 2024? | This would be a change to the State and Local Income Tax Deduction Limitation which is currently $10,000.
Indexing to inflation, changing the amount, elimination or other modification would all count for a YES.
Minor changes to wording that only change things on the margin would not qualify and I will try to update w... | 2023-07-24T16:12:12 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:36:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YVNyKzsiRI1lWuZ4oBZB | Will Microsoft win $10+ million from Twitter for trademarking X before 2025? | Microsoft apparently has trademarked the use of X in the context of online chat.
Will Microsoft win (or reach a settlement for) $10 million or more from Twitter (X Corp.) in a court of law or private arbitration setting any time before 2025? (Further legal clairifications may be added to the resolution criteria in th... | 2023-07-24T15:39:38 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:50:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rtYWVNAkfi564bWKosle | Will "xeeting" catch on as the new term for tweeting in 2023? | I'll resolve to my own subjective assessment at the end of the year. 'Xeeting' subjectively needs to feel like it's at least one of the top 3 ways people refer to the activity currently known as 'tweeting' for me to resolve YES. | 2023-07-24T15:09:07 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:59:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7gLWnMuU6k0ayZ0lmmiW | Will destiny talk to a sitting member of Congress in 2023? | context: https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/157ne5v/upcoming_stream_tentatively_planned_with_a/ | 2023-07-24T13:26:56 | 2023-09-29T11:15:04 | 2023-09-29T11:15:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dauvVBjn6OEFFGTQEYTu | Will Twitter.com redirect to X.com during 2023? | At any point in the year 2023, will twitter.com redirect to x.com, rather than the other way around? | 2023-07-24T13:08:57 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:31:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kj5T1xnQCDqeP5etOHef | Will an Israeli protester be killed by police forces before September 1? | This question resolves to Yes if an Israeli protester, in any protest in the country, is confirmed to be killed because of actions taken by police forces, or related to injury caused by the police, before September 1st 2023.
for the sake of this market, an Israeli protester is an Israeli citizen, Jewish or not, partic... | 2023-07-24T13:02:48 | 2023-09-01T13:59:00 | 2023-09-02T11:25:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Fhkped0nthRkKo97dqu | Elon Musk will be worth less than $200B on December 31, 2024 | Elon Musk will be worth less than $200B on December 31, 2024. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) will be used as the source of Musk's net worth. | 2023-07-24T12:50:13 | 2025-01-06T08:26:24 | 2025-01-06T08:26:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r5dmpCGDxOZ8uTotQBUC | Will X.com switch to a different X logo by the end of the year? | Doesn't have to be AT the end of the year. Just has to be any time before the end of the year and will immediately resolve yes.
Any change from the current Logo will count, even if minimal.
[image]The new logo has to roughly reassemble an X (doesn't have to be exactly a clean X, but the inspiration and vague shape ha... | 2023-07-24T11:53:59 | 2023-07-30T12:37:34 | 2023-07-30T12:37:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vsIX6dF9gx8hZ4SYv5UT | Will 5 million humans have claimed an ID from a WorldCoin Orb before 2024? | Background: WorldCoin is a biometric identity crypto project designed to solve the "proof of humanity" problem.
If WorldCoin does not publish reliable figures or if there's no way for me to come up with a reasonable estimate of issued IDs, I'll resolve N/A sometime in Q1 2024. | 2023-07-24T10:58:33 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:02:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6HalCyviY0yeTC7FQMve | Will the "X" rebrand of Twitter ultimately fail? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-24T10:14:31 | 2024-11-07T08:42:07 | 2024-11-07T08:42:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2OleYF3Jaj8LdZKuSSJY | Will a state or district that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 election vote the opposite way in 2024? | This question specifically refers to the presidential elections in 2020 and 2024 and the only districts that apply to this question are those that specifically Nebraska and Maine have decided to assign separate electoral college votes.
These are the states and districts that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 20... | 2023-07-24T05:52:46 | 2024-11-12T10:57:14 | 2024-11-12T10:57:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4hTCYF7dybvnaNEL9OgZ | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Iowa? | If the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election also wins the state and receives its Electoral College votes in that election, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
Faithless electors will not be taken into account. | 2023-07-24T05:22:57 | 2024-11-06T23:08:09 | 2024-11-06T23:08:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QoMP3CQtRak0ugeidZ4D | Will Twitter's logo still be an X by the end of August? (NB - even a temporary change resolves to NO) | Twitter have changed their logo from the old blue bird to a black stylised X on a white background. Musk Tweeted this as the change happened:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673
Will this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Thursday 31st August (the close time of this market)?
Resolution notes;
I... | 2023-07-24T05:01:14 | 2023-08-31T13:00:00 | 2023-08-31T13:01:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hN51Pb4QCGRt9Mzf0Qh0 | Will Twitter's logo still be an X by 31st July? | Twitter have changed their logo from the old blue bird to a black stylised X on a white background. Musk Tweeted this as the change happened:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673
Will this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Monday 31st July (the close time of this market)?
Resolution notes;
I wil... | 2023-07-24T05:00:30 | 2023-07-31T13:00:00 | 2023-07-31T13:04:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-a892V7mW8aHv0gwWw0Jc | Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $460 per share on July 28, 2023? | Weekly prediction on how Nvidia stock will perform
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $460 USD on the closing price of 28 of July 2023. Any moves above $460 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
[link preview] | 2023-07-24T03:55:11 | 2023-07-28T13:53:19 | 2023-07-28T13:53:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SzBX8Bdu9EV1cZfMW7dR | Will there be another general election in Spain before July 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-24T03:23:17 | 2024-07-01T15:59:00 | 2024-07-01T17:03:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CUQsPUFjBoehp9b5AeaZ | Twitter/X launches a financial product within six month? | Linda Yaccarino (today): X is the future state of unlimited interactivity – centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking – creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities. Powered by AI, X will connect us all in ways we’re just beginning to imagine.
Jan 2023: Musk has said he wants... | 2023-07-23T21:49:05 | 2024-01-22T16:59:00 | 2024-01-22T17:03:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gTHYNO2zLO6n1jApbTt4 | Twitter/X launches a financial product within three month? | Linda Yaccarino (today): X is the future state of unlimited interactivity – centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking – creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities. Powered by AI, X will connect us all in ways we’re just beginning to imagine.
Jan 2023: Musk has said he wants... | 2023-07-23T21:48:50 | 2023-10-22T16:59:00 | 2023-10-22T17:00:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CCcj4Ooq3nY9xGS8Kimk | Will twitter.com still exist? (2024) | There's been concerns: Elon Musk has said Twitter is at risk of declaring bankruptcy, many engineering staff have been laid off, rumors of lurking technical debt that could bring down the site irrecoverably, landlords not being paid on-time, Twitter is being rebranded to X and a new domain is being set up, and likely m... | 2023-07-23T20:27:01 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-03T13:30:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DBj2fXnKUtkPojNVRO6A | Will the Central African Republic approve the new constitution in the July 30, 2023 referendum? | The Central African Republic, a nation in in central Africa, will hold a constitutional referendum on Sunday, July 30, 2023. The main issue seems to be about abolishing (or at least resetting) term limits for the nation's president. (The current president, Faustin-Archange Touadera, is already on his second term.)
As ... | 2023-07-23T18:55:25 | 2023-08-27T14:04:54 | 2023-08-27T14:04:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ITo0bCc4Pvjj0GH87c25 | Will Trump be held under house arrest at Trump Tower at any point before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-23T15:30:53 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:28:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R2kPh6MTCkqbx04pCdTk | Will HPMoR be sold on Amazon? | Will physical copies of the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality book series be sold on Amazon by the end of the year?
This market resolves yes if I can go to amazon.com and order a physical copy of [ETA 29 Oct 2023: at least the first volume of] [ETA 31 Oct 2023: all volumes in the series of] HPMoR and it arri... | 2023-07-23T15:01:27 | 2023-12-07T10:23:07 | 2023-12-07T10:23:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ApfRxtYnqceyhA6F7OXi | Will Kalshi have a market on the 2024 elections? | Resolves YES if Kalshi has a market on the outcome of any of the following 2024 US federal elections:
Presidential election
Specific Congressional races (House or Senate)
Congressional control (House or Senate)
The market must exist before election day, November 8 (ET). Resolves YES if the market exists at any poin... | 2023-07-23T14:45:12 | 2024-09-12T12:04:04 | 2024-09-12T12:04:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S77S4Yyk4l62BUiMvN87 | Will Destiny replace Qorantos with another permanent "Kick or Keep" host? (before December 23th) | There has to be at least one episode where there is a new cohost AND destiny has to make it clear that the new cohost is a permanent replacement not just a fill-in.
OR
If somebody else replaces qorantos for at least 3 episodes in a row that would also count without the official announcement.
If the show gets permane... | 2023-07-23T14:33:30 | 2023-12-22T14:47:25 | 2023-12-22T14:47:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kwOpE4JnaBSUeRZ2kYTx | Will Henry Kissinger survive 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-23T13:00:31 | 2023-11-29T17:50:13 | 2023-11-29T17:50:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Msv1pzFVzSLXO6YuzjiX | Will Charlie Munger survive 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-23T12:56:06 | 2023-11-28T16:20:17 | 2023-11-28T16:20:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xkqAkPgpogdZVOU9rcxt | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of 2023? | Meaning at point of market close - not "at any point before market close".
Same resolution criteria as this other market, just for end of 2023:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo) | 2023-07-23T12:26:28 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-20T06:09:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o2fKPGSM88oXIWqV0sJB | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | #Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden | 2023-07-23T12:26:17 | 2024-09-03T20:33:34 | 2024-09-03T20:33:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r1wn97L80yAxLALCQe1p | Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-23T12:25:54 | 2024-07-28T08:26:09 | 2024-07-28T08:26:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4DPM3aWmR5w8Fr2ur2LT | 21. Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023? | Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.
This is question #21 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rul... | 2023-07-23T12:25:24 | 2023-09-01T15:38:05 | 2023-09-01T15:38:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YjnDIMxO1GtjRlie2JhC | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | Close date updated to 2024-08-02 12:59 am | 2023-07-23T12:24:42 | 2024-07-21T15:25:02 | 2024-07-21T15:25:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YqdFXdeL8OAL3M3U1got | Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score? | I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews are still coming in. The review embargo lifts today at 7pm ET.
Barbie - Rotten Tomatoes | 2023-07-23T12:23:08 | 2023-08-17T23:59:00 | 2023-08-28T12:50:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vaTlp1X7rnrtNmZaBrbR | Will r/place say "fuck spez" when it closes? | Resolves whenever this edition of r/place ends. If the exact text "fuck spez" is visible in the final snapshot, resolves to YES, otherwise NO.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/20/23801716/reddits-r-place-protest-art
[link preview]Reddit users are complaining about admins messing with the canvas to remove messages and ... | 2023-07-23T12:22:50 | 2023-07-27T12:32:42 | 2023-07-27T12:32:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-68q8QvRQzSIaRcsLeDh4 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023? | including tests | 2023-07-23T12:18:07 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-05T10:38:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2NdgWhsOyVj33PoqFsL4 | July 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000? | If in July 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-07-23T12:07:19 | 2023-08-02T11:52:48 | 2023-08-02T11:52:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ilb68yDUJZsXIIuCyfr1 | Will Leo Messi become MLS 2024 Top Scorer? | This will resolve to YES if at the end of 2024 MLS Lionel Messi has scored the highest nmber. ofleague goals | 2023-07-23T12:05:57 | 2024-10-25T14:29:20 | 2024-10-25T14:29:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y3j2DOOzqr4MLm9pqO2v | Will the twitter post button still be called "Tweet" in two days? | musk is being hypomanic again https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1683171310388535296 | 2023-07-23T11:59:38 | 2023-07-25T23:59:00 | 2023-07-26T00:08:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wTwEN2nwnZOaazmsDUBM | Jurgen Klopp will be the manager for Liverpool FC on February 16th, 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-23T11:39:08 | 2024-02-16T10:29:00 | 2024-02-18T13:50:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mQQXKrtcIWCgiSg9rtO9 | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race | 2023-07-23T10:52:49 | 2023-09-03T08:04:51 | 2023-09-03T08:04:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2HTLAWGsW6nMpy5pglGC | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race. | 2023-07-23T10:52:49 | 2023-09-03T08:17:32 | 2023-09-03T08:17:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w7qiRagaxZzAY2lZwZyo | Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 3, 2023. | 2023-07-23T10:52:39 | 2023-09-03T08:05:23 | 2023-09-03T08:05:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4eyYDPil74GmkCLByM8f | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 3, 2023. | 2023-07-23T10:52:39 | 2023-09-03T08:06:14 | 2023-09-03T08:06:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FAqdlM9oWlrTIF2tcVty | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)? | The race will take place on September 3, 2023. | 2023-07-23T10:52:37 | 2023-09-03T08:05:49 | 2023-09-03T08:05:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rUUxol6LemuFp50dEJMQ | Will Twitter rebrand in 2023? | [tweet]
If in 2023, Twitter changes its brand substantially, this will resolve to YES.
Substantial rebranding includes change of logo, name, or some kind of brand acquisition (ie. X-Twitter, or Twitter by Xeta, etc.)
Such redesign must remain for at least 9 days to resolve YES.
| 2023-07-23T09:26:07 | 2023-08-05T09:48:48 | 2023-08-05T09:48:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NRypzhf5y7lSLRUvb8y5 | Will the 2023 F1 Belgian Grand Prix be red flagged? | Resolves to YES if:
The Race session of the 2023 F1 Belgian Grand Prix is red flagged at least once during the race. Does not count any flags thrown during other sessions (nor any after the final car has crossed the checkered flag).
Resolves to NO otherwise.
Resolves to N/A if the race does not take place. | 2023-07-23T07:52:55 | 2023-07-30T07:29:20 | 2023-07-30T07:29:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N9WHWdVENP6dGIfRlWAZ | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race | 2023-07-23T07:52:25 | 2023-08-27T08:30:40 | 2023-08-27T08:30:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hxUaDeZZC45OjUMoYgb2 | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race. | 2023-07-23T07:52:24 | 2023-08-27T08:30:27 | 2023-08-27T08:30:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oZo86crnHO5SniPPWAZC | Will Alex Albon finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix? | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023. | 2023-07-23T07:52:23 | 2023-08-27T09:27:08 | 2023-08-27T09:27:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CztasU0Ev7A4sR6idpWd | Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023. | 2023-07-23T07:52:02 | 2023-08-27T09:20:06 | 2023-08-27T09:20:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i29AlH2cGlm6o2wPXGA2 | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023. | 2023-07-23T07:52:01 | 2023-08-27T08:32:29 | 2023-08-27T08:32:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qc1RuvmQksW2ruTqdFDc | Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023. | 2023-07-23T07:52:00 | 2023-08-27T09:23:31 | 2023-08-27T09:23:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SyxgdUKQkBQZvetPvMyo | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix? | The race will take place on August 27, 2023. | 2023-07-23T07:51:55 | 2023-08-27T08:29:01 | 2023-08-27T08:29:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xqJW5EYMPNLMQ7NB2qSH | Will 'Barbie' gross over $160m on opening weekend? | This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
If ... | 2023-07-23T07:10:52 | 2023-07-24T15:57:36 | 2023-07-24T15:57:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P3tx73R0ghk5RrRzhGNW | Will Meta's Threads introduce ads on the platform in 2023? | Ads, sponsored links, etc. | 2023-07-23T02:08:52 | 2023-12-31T21:48:04 | 2023-12-31T21:48:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LXg4YSOnOpdUE1VWjiZk | Will 2023's temperature exceed previous years' for 30 days in a row again (in the rest of the year)? | https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
Will there be a period of consecutive 30 days in which the line for 2023 is above* the lines for all the other years?
*In case the temperatures on the graph are equal for 2023 and some other year, the data with 3 decimal points available on the website will be checked. Res... | 2023-07-23T01:16:57 | 2023-09-13T22:05:07 | 2023-09-13T22:05:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gBfVqCkGAfh4n8314REA | Will Twitter's logo still be a bird in a month? [musk tweet] | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds | 2023-07-22T21:28:46 | 2023-07-24T20:43:50 | 2023-07-24T20:43:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fGdIr309OMgTL6ZijybD | Will Twitter's logo still be a bird in a week? [Musk tweet] | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds | 2023-07-22T21:28:35 | 2023-07-24T20:41:21 | 2023-07-24T20:41:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n8wrhuSHh8fnV9TGDk5D | Will Twitter rename in a month [Musk tweeted]? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 - And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds
Does he mean it? | 2023-07-22T21:25:32 | 2023-07-27T20:03:27 | 2023-07-27T20:03:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EEJkCG5MoBM41s8UtuOv | Will Twitter rename in a week [Musk tweeted]? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 - And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds
Does he mean it? | 2023-07-22T21:25:21 | 2023-07-27T20:02:51 | 2023-07-27T20:02:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-A6c3m9I7FnDyjzNWwtwS | Will 500+ people die from heat waves in the US this year? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_American_heat_waves
Resolves YES if 500 or more people die in American heat waves this year.
Otherwise resolves NO. | 2023-07-22T19:22:26 | 2023-12-11T15:50:43 | 2023-12-11T15:50:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-G6heTXOR4vbhlwwNatKK | Will The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom win Game of the Year at the 2023 Game Awards? | The Game Awards is an annual awards show for video games. If The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom wins the "Game of the Year" category, resolves to YES. If otherwise, resolves to NO. Closing date subject to change depending on date of awards show, but it is always held in early December and has never been held aft... | 2023-07-22T18:55:28 | 2023-12-06T20:59:00 | 2023-12-08T12:34:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZoyLxzfXydAjOsb0JqRo | Will Theo Baker sell the film rights to the story of him taking down the President of Stanford as a freshman? | So he isn't any ordinary freshman it turns out, but rather the son of Peter Baker, NYTimes chief White House correspondent, and New Yorker columnist Susan B Glasser. And during his freshman year at Stanford he took down the president of the university. Incredible.
Resolves YES if the kid sells the movie rights to this... | 2023-07-22T11:20:20 | 2024-12-31T00:04:52 | 2024-12-31T00:04:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-W0sZA4pc3Dza5rExDtV6 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Iowa Caucuses? | This guy is definitely the most charismatic candidate in either party. Maybe the only charismatic candidate now that Trump has lost his touch. He could be the Mayor Pete of 2024. | 2023-07-22T07:50:19 | 2024-01-28T17:00:04 | 2024-01-28T17:00:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NT1M9E6JqmVKpLbJQZYT | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be on the GOP ticket in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-22T07:47:43 | 2024-07-15T13:01:33 | 2024-07-15T13:01:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qn88EyO6GVPw7oYg5Z5A | Will there be more than 160 goals scored at the Women's World Cup? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-22T07:18:15 | 2023-08-16T05:06:50 | 2023-08-16T05:06:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uO2zGQPN9FvoezTkIM6H | Will any Senate seat flip from Republican to Democratic in the 2024 elections? | Will any Senate seat held by a Republican before the 2024 elections be won by a Democrat?
See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-any-senate-seat-flip-to-the-re
@/JosephNoonan/will-any-independent-or-thirdparty | 2023-07-22T06:28:10 | 2024-11-07T19:12:30 | 2024-11-07T19:12:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gFVLLGjCbne8WUfCPsBz | Will at least three candidates win at least one state in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if at least three candidates win the most delegates in at least one state each during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO if two or fewer candidates win the most delegates in at least one state.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), ... | 2023-07-21T23:48:18 | 2024-06-14T00:02:57 | 2024-06-14T00:02:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rRYogIM0PNXQmRQile6G | Will Neuralink begin recruitment for the clinical trial of its brain implants by the end of Sep 15, 2023? | Note: The patient registry available on Neuralink's official website (as available on Jul 21) will not count for a YES resolution since that registration is not recruitment/enrollment for their clinical trial. | 2023-07-21T19:57:17 | 2023-09-16T11:49:09 | 2023-09-16T11:49:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RIyeL7xiMbfFoG4JJCi9 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win at least two states in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Vivek Ramaswamy wins the most delegates in at least two states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC... | 2023-07-21T17:31:31 | 2024-06-14T00:03:51 | 2024-06-14T00:03:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8NGsFJpzQsmjsoR8cvjx | Will Xi Jinping visit Cuba by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-21T15:24:27 | 2024-12-31T13:36:50 | 2024-12-31T13:36:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Yk7rG8q7vDoa4G3SoyGa | Will Bibi Netanyahu visit Beijing before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-21T15:21:44 | 2023-12-31T20:52:23 | 2023-12-31T20:52:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3NYNJeHZilPZoHjP8FD3 | Will the Washington Football Team change its name away from the Commanders before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-21T11:08:25 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-01T13:20:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
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