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stringlengths 8
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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
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stringlengths 19
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stringlengths 19
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-lIJi5A8sO30HsRuaNAsp
|
Will Bitcoin touch $17500 before the year 2023 ends?
|
Price to be considered is Coinmarketcap's main webpage. Price glitches not considered.
|
2023-07-26T00:20:46
|
2023-12-31T18:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:08:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nBaJdBfraPBkwkGvgnpF
|
Will the LK-99 room temp, superconductivity pre-print replicate in August
|
August 2023 or earlier
Shorter term version of
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?17%
and will resolve similarly unless there are gross irregularities
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
Make money fast if it replicates it will replicate soon
[link preview]
|
2023-07-25T23:13:10
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-09-02T08:42:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4jr8qZJQPd5F5VdvuKGD
|
Will LK-99 be in commercial use by the end of 2024
|
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5wNeyt5yvpEP9BBc/the-first-room-temperature-ambient-pressure-superconductor
What might be a major energetic discovery was just announced. Will it have real life implications soon?
|
2023-07-25T23:12:00
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:40:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-248t0u45GbdaQpAuDOZ2
|
Will the LK-99 room temp superconductivity pre-print replicate in 2023
|
Shorter term version of @/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre and will r solve similarly unless there are gross irregularities
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
[link preview]
|
2023-07-25T23:10:10
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:09:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Unbdk6IG2Y1cTqk4cOMG
|
Will DeSantis fall to third place in Republican primary polling this year?
|
Will DeSantis be in third place in 538's primary polling averages at any point in 2023?
|
2023-07-25T21:05:01
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:17:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kE3s25Im16P5lcnjWOgh
|
Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?
|
See https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008.
Resolves "yes" if reproduced by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper and published in a reputable peer-reviewed journal before the start of 2025 UTC.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-25T19:45:46
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:03:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j6UV268NksJudcT9zvdc
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy reach 25% or higher in the national polls for the Republican primary by December 1, 2023.
|
As meaured by the average of polls reported by https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
[link preview]
|
2023-07-25T19:27:09
|
2023-12-01T20:59:00
|
2023-12-03T19:37:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lZ4qNIy5wimn9bkUQtsY
|
Will Apple officially announce the iPhone Ultra in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-25T17:44:02
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:42:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JuhMxrKUrWU5Aboy2zMy
|
Will Apple officially announce the iPhone Ultra in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-25T17:43:21
|
2023-12-31T04:59:00
|
2023-12-31T11:36:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OlGXVx60s2I5f8UbMiF1
|
Will a hurricane make landfall anywhere in the continental US before the end of August?
|
The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty but I will not wait until the next year's NHC report which sometimes includes reassessments.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Source: National Hurricane Center
[markets]
|
2023-07-25T16:19:24
|
2023-08-30T04:55:40
|
2023-08-30T04:55:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yXyKRryZwBMCDO36VNZS
|
Will future tropical storm Emily develop by August 15?
|
The next named tropical storm to develop in the Atlantic will be named Emily.
Resolves according to classification by the National Hurricane Center.
|
2023-07-25T16:16:16
|
2023-08-15T20:59:00
|
2023-08-16T03:01:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HFJMt6PJKXziaFdc4p9b
|
Will Ukraine be promised or provided ATACMS in 2023?
|
Resolves YES immediately if before the closing date, there is a credible official statement or mainstream news reports that Ukraine’s military (including aligned paramilitary forces) will receive or has received ATACMS missiles for ongoing war purposes.
Resolves NO otherwise.
OSINT reports may serve as proof, but they need to be self-evident and non-controversial. As a rule of thumb, they should be credible enough to be uncritically cited by Reuters as more than rumors, making this caveat mostly redundant.
Statements and offers conditional on the war ending – that would only come into effect after it ends – don’t count. If the war does actually definitely end during 2023, and only then missiles are promised or given, it also doesn’t count.
|
2023-07-25T14:28:25
|
2023-10-17T11:08:15
|
2023-10-17T11:08:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-paIE1N2MQoF0wpKjmFzh
|
Is the room temperature superconductor paper legit?
|
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
[link preview]
|
2023-07-25T14:22:51
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T06:47:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1sfbjcTu6zgqjCVjqWA2
|
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
|
Preprint here:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
Companion paper here with description of synthesis:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037
Update 2023-08-05:
Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases.
Materials Impurities:
This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution.
Removing impurities (like CuS) is OK.
Increasing impurities that were also present in LK-99 original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99.
Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above.
Superconductivity:
The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc.
At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance.
Demonstration of:
Meissner effect
R = 0 below Tc (satisfied by electric field < 0.1 - 1 uV/cm or resistivity < ~10^-11 Ohm*cm)
Phase change
While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least some measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.
Resolution Caveats:
I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.
I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.
I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity.
********************************************
Update 2023-07-27:
Pasting my comment on resolution criteria
We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?
Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:
Zero DC electrical resistivity (or something close enough if the measurement is AC).
A phase change*, which is usually exhibited as a sharp discontinuity in the heat capacity.
The Meissner effect (magnetic fields expelled).
If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper.
2) has an asterisk because @BenjaminShindel suggests that a phase change might not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists.
I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath.
Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.
|
2023-07-25T13:53:13
|
2025-01-01T05:24:41
|
2025-01-01T17:21:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GWPeaRStAN4NqwEuS6Ic
|
Will we have "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" before 2024?
|
The paper "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12008.pdf claims to have discovered a very simple room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Resolves YES if by the end of the year there are multiple independent replications of the claims in the paper, or in general there's consensus that the results are legit.
If a variation of the methodology used in this paper gives us "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor", this resolves YES.
Resolves N/A if there's no consensus on Dec 31st, resolves NO if on Dec 31st most of the relevant experts state that the results don't hold up. (i.e. there is no known room temperature superconductor)
If a completely independent method gives a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor this resolves N/A.
I will not bet in this market after setting it to 10%
|
2023-07-25T13:41:58
|
2023-12-31T10:47:20
|
2023-12-31T10:47:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OttvozaVRgC7LsXaUdxF
|
Will the Women's World Cup final be decided by penalty kicks?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-25T12:48:17
|
2023-08-20T05:03:57
|
2023-08-20T05:03:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qN7pYuB8YhGLoqVUCFNa
|
AI Psychic Hotline by end of 2024?
|
Similar to @/firstuserhere/ai-hotline-by-2023-end by must be specifically a psychic hotline.
|
2023-07-25T10:43:15
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:08:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-95XeTwOhZuQ5swAnpCtR
|
Will the winner of the Women's World Cup come from Europe?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-25T07:43:50
|
2023-08-16T05:00:32
|
2023-08-16T05:00:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6sFWb95jlUBPiD3u4ChH
|
Will Mbappe go to play for Al Hilal after PSG?
|
The Saudi Arabian pro league club Al Hilal recently offered Kylian Mbappe a world record fee for him to join their roster.
Crucially, this deal would reportedly allow him to continue his plans to join Real Madrid in 2024.
This market will resolve YES if, after his current tenure at PSG, the first team Mbappe plays for is Al Hilal. This market will resolve NO if he goes to play for a different team.
(The market close date is subject to change, whether forwards or backwards, depending on news relating to the deal)
|
2023-07-25T05:29:43
|
2024-06-09T07:22:43
|
2024-06-09T07:22:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W2lTWDpvObmG62igsQtt
|
Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-25T05:04:58
|
2024-11-06T19:42:32
|
2024-11-06T19:42:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rWCO2NXMqBRQWOVKvNRo
|
Will the candidate who wins Arizona win the 2024 POTUS election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-25T04:58:03
|
2024-11-12T09:08:32
|
2024-11-12T09:08:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g7SJ4nJYdssQeXPL1Z7X
|
Will X (was Twitter) be renamed in the next year?
|
Will the microblogging service currently known as X, which was formerly known as Twitter, change names again before the end of August 2024?
Resolves YES if the service known as X, hosted at x.com, undergoes a rebrand to become any other brand name, including Twitter. This rebrand does require continuity of service with X (i.e. a post on X is still accessible on the new brand website).
Does not resolve YES if Twitter brand elements remain in place, but may resolve YES if Twitter elements return where X elements had been placed, and this change is not temporary or due to a technical error.
|
2023-07-25T04:45:06
|
2024-08-31T15:59:00
|
2024-08-31T21:58:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-arOCOe5qo0nmgKYSAAXf
|
Will a significant security flaw be discovered in the WorldCoin Protocol before 2024?
|
This market resolves YES if a significant security flaw is published and confirmed by security experts before 2024. If a qualifying flaw is discovered and is then swiftly and successfully patched such that the vulnerability is extinguished entirely in short order, this market still resolves YES.
A "significant" security flaw is any flaw that allows a user to bypass or significantly degrade the security guarantees made by the WorldCoin protocol. This is somewhat subjective and I will reserve the right to make the final judgment, but qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to:
A bot is able to reliably pose as a human (especially if this can be scaled to large numbers)
A user is able to reliably impersonate another user
A user is able to appropriate funds or tokens from other users in a manner not intended by the protocol
If January 1, 2024 rolls around and no significant security flaw has been published and confirmed by security experts yet, this market resolves NO.
|
2023-07-24T21:27:42
|
2023-10-18T22:30:51
|
2023-10-18T22:30:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RDhm19T53AUVaXKIJLty
|
Will Elon rename Twitter Blue to a product with "Balls" in its name anytime before the end of 2023?
|
https://twitter.com/ElonMuskAOC/status/1683321418317205504
[image]To resolve "YES",, the new product must have "Balls" in its title.
For example
X Blue Balls"
X Gold Balls"
Premium Creator Balls
The product can briefly have "Balls" in its name, and reverted back after a bit in production etc.. similar to the maneuvre with rebranding as a Doge logo.
|
2023-07-24T20:51:11
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:49:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m5toOAEFEESryAZqWnQo
|
Will Nintendo announce a new Mario Kart game in 2024?
|
Main series Mario Kart games only - DLC, Remasters or Re-releases (like 8 Deluxe) or Tour (or any other mobile games) do not count. Announcement only.
|
2023-07-24T19:30:23
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-02T19:15:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MUB2BFSV7TMTnpgJr9At
|
Will Netanyahu remain Israel's PM until the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Netanyahu continues to be Israel's PM through the end of 2024, NO otherwise.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-netanyahu-remain-israels-pm-un)Update 2024-29-12 (PST): - Acting Prime Minister substitutions do not impact the resolution of this market. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2023-07-24T18:55:51
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T17:04:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7affH5xZKC9CQnorgjty
|
Will Destiny vote for Biden in the next presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-24T18:35:44
|
2024-12-02T15:10:28
|
2024-12-02T15:10:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C2XfUxkkLSZeNdbSGshd
|
2023: Will X become Twitter again?
|
If the old logo and name come back in 2023, this will resolve to YES.
|
2023-07-24T17:44:05
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:02:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gBneick4ouZuGORoaW8W
|
Will the SALT Tax Deduction Limitation in the United States be changed by Congressional action before the end of 2024?
|
This would be a change to the State and Local Income Tax Deduction Limitation which is currently $10,000.
Indexing to inflation, changing the amount, elimination or other modification would all count for a YES.
Minor changes to wording that only change things on the margin would not qualify and I will try to update what proposals would not qualify - the basis for this is that some editorial change that has limited practical effect should not count for a YES
Bill must be passed and signed by President before 12/31/2024. Change does not have to go into effect in 2024.
|
2023-07-24T16:12:12
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:36:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YVNyKzsiRI1lWuZ4oBZB
|
Will Microsoft win $10+ million from Twitter for trademarking X before 2025?
|
Microsoft apparently has trademarked the use of X in the context of online chat.
Will Microsoft win (or reach a settlement for) $10 million or more from Twitter (X Corp.) in a court of law or private arbitration setting any time before 2025? (Further legal clairifications may be added to the resolution criteria in the case of ambiguity.)
[image]
|
2023-07-24T15:39:38
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T14:50:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rtYWVNAkfi564bWKosle
|
Will "xeeting" catch on as the new term for tweeting in 2023?
|
I'll resolve to my own subjective assessment at the end of the year. 'Xeeting' subjectively needs to feel like it's at least one of the top 3 ways people refer to the activity currently known as 'tweeting' for me to resolve YES.
|
2023-07-24T15:09:07
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:59:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7gLWnMuU6k0ayZ0lmmiW
|
Will destiny talk to a sitting member of Congress in 2023?
|
context: https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/157ne5v/upcoming_stream_tentatively_planned_with_a/
|
2023-07-24T13:26:56
|
2023-09-29T11:15:04
|
2023-09-29T11:15:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dauvVBjn6OEFFGTQEYTu
|
Will Twitter.com redirect to X.com during 2023?
|
At any point in the year 2023, will twitter.com redirect to x.com, rather than the other way around?
|
2023-07-24T13:08:57
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:31:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kj5T1xnQCDqeP5etOHef
|
Will an Israeli protester be killed by police forces before September 1?
|
This question resolves to Yes if an Israeli protester, in any protest in the country, is confirmed to be killed because of actions taken by police forces, or related to injury caused by the police, before September 1st 2023.
for the sake of this market, an Israeli protester is an Israeli citizen, Jewish or not, participating in a gathering reported as a protest on ynet. (i.e. if ynet reports it as terrorism, won't count towards the market). Magav don't count as police.
|
2023-07-24T13:02:48
|
2023-09-01T13:59:00
|
2023-09-02T11:25:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Fhkped0nthRkKo97dqu
|
Elon Musk will be worth less than $200B on December 31, 2024
|
Elon Musk will be worth less than $200B on December 31, 2024. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) will be used as the source of Musk's net worth.
|
2023-07-24T12:50:13
|
2025-01-06T08:26:24
|
2025-01-06T08:26:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r5dmpCGDxOZ8uTotQBUC
|
Will X.com switch to a different X logo by the end of the year?
|
Doesn't have to be AT the end of the year. Just has to be any time before the end of the year and will immediately resolve yes.
Any change from the current Logo will count, even if minimal.
[image]The new logo has to roughly reassemble an X (doesn't have to be exactly a clean X, but the inspiration and vague shape has to have some semblance of an X).
If there is a new logo that isn't an X, this won't resolve until the end of the year in case it changes again to fulfil the YES criteria.
|
2023-07-24T11:53:59
|
2023-07-30T12:37:34
|
2023-07-30T12:37:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vsIX6dF9gx8hZ4SYv5UT
|
Will 5 million humans have claimed an ID from a WorldCoin Orb before 2024?
|
Background: WorldCoin is a biometric identity crypto project designed to solve the "proof of humanity" problem.
If WorldCoin does not publish reliable figures or if there's no way for me to come up with a reasonable estimate of issued IDs, I'll resolve N/A sometime in Q1 2024.
|
2023-07-24T10:58:33
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:02:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6HalCyviY0yeTC7FQMve
|
Will the "X" rebrand of Twitter ultimately fail?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-24T10:14:31
|
2024-11-07T08:42:07
|
2024-11-07T08:42:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2OleYF3Jaj8LdZKuSSJY
|
Will a state or district that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 election vote the opposite way in 2024?
|
This question specifically refers to the presidential elections in 2020 and 2024 and the only districts that apply to this question are those that specifically Nebraska and Maine have decided to assign separate electoral college votes.
These are the states and districts that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 presidential election:
For Biden:
Vermont
Massachusetts
Maryland
Hawaii
California
New York
ME-1
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Delaware
Washington
Illinois
New Jersey
Oregon
Colorado
For Trump:
NE-3
Wyoming
West Virginia
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Idaho
Arkansas
Kentucky
Alabama
South Dakota
Tennessee
Louisiana
Nebraska (statewide)
Utah
Mississippi
Indiana
Montana
Missouri
Kansas
NE-1
South Carolina
If any of these states or districts end up voting for a candidate in the 2024 presidential election of a different party to the one they voted by over 55% for in the 2020 presidential election, then this market will resolve YES.
In other words, if a state that Biden won with over 55% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election is won by a non-Democrat in the 2024 presidential election, or if a state that Trump won with over 55% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election is won by a non-Republican in the 2024 presidential election, this question will resolve YES. This question will also resolve YES if NE-1, NE3, or ME-1 flip in the same way assuming winning them still grants electoral votes per state law.
|
2023-07-24T05:52:46
|
2024-11-12T10:57:14
|
2024-11-12T10:57:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4hTCYF7dybvnaNEL9OgZ
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Iowa?
|
If the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election also wins the state and receives its Electoral College votes in that election, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
Faithless electors will not be taken into account.
|
2023-07-24T05:22:57
|
2024-11-06T23:08:09
|
2024-11-06T23:08:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QoMP3CQtRak0ugeidZ4D
|
Will Twitter's logo still be an X by the end of August? (NB - even a temporary change resolves to NO)
|
Twitter have changed their logo from the old blue bird to a black stylised X on a white background. Musk Tweeted this as the change happened:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673
Will this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Thursday 31st August (the close time of this market)?
Resolution notes;
I will be looking at the logo on the top left of the site when I view https://twitter.com/home while logged in. If there is no longer a logo in that particular part of the page, I will use my judgement to judge what counts as the site's logo.
If the logo is changed back to the blue bird or anything else which isn't an X, this market resolves NO, even if the change is temporary.
If the logo is changed to something else which is still an X, this will still resolve YES
If there is no logo on the site and it is impossible to determine what Twitter's logo is at the time that this market closes, I will resolve to N/A
By "Twitter" I mean the service that we currently know as Twitter. If the name of the service changes, that does not affect this market.
|
2023-07-24T05:01:14
|
2023-08-31T13:00:00
|
2023-08-31T13:01:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hN51Pb4QCGRt9Mzf0Qh0
|
Will Twitter's logo still be an X by 31st July?
|
Twitter have changed their logo from the old blue bird to a black stylised X on a white background. Musk Tweeted this as the change happened:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673
Will this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Monday 31st July (the close time of this market)?
Resolution notes;
I will be looking at the logo on the top left of the site when I view https://twitter.com/home while logged in. If there is no longer a logo in that particular part of the page, I will use my judgement to judge what counts as the site's logo.
If the logo is changed back to the blue bird or anything else which isn't an X, this market resolves NO, even if the change is temporary.
If the logo is changed to something else which is still an X, this will still resolve YES
If there is no logo on the site and it is impossible to determine what Twitter's logo is at the time that this market closes, I will resolve to N/A
By "Twitter" I mean the service that we currently know as Twitter. If the name of the service changes, that does not affect this market.
|
2023-07-24T05:00:30
|
2023-07-31T13:00:00
|
2023-07-31T13:04:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a892V7mW8aHv0gwWw0Jc
|
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $460 per share on July 28, 2023?
|
Weekly prediction on how Nvidia stock will perform
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $460 USD on the closing price of 28 of July 2023. Any moves above $460 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-24T03:55:11
|
2023-07-28T13:53:19
|
2023-07-28T13:53:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SzBX8Bdu9EV1cZfMW7dR
|
Will there be another general election in Spain before July 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-24T03:23:17
|
2024-07-01T15:59:00
|
2024-07-01T17:03:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CUQsPUFjBoehp9b5AeaZ
|
Twitter/X launches a financial product within six month?
|
Linda Yaccarino (today): X is the future state of unlimited interactivity – centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking – creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities. Powered by AI, X will connect us all in ways we’re just beginning to imagine.
Jan 2023: Musk has said he wants Twitter to offer fintech services such as peer-to-peer transactions, savings accounts and debit cards, as part of a master plan to launch an “everything app” that incorporates messaging, payments and commerce. In 1999, Musk co-founded X.com, one of the first online banks, which later became part of payments giant PayPal.
The financial product needs to not be primarily about twitter's social features - so 'better tweet monetization' doesn't count.
|
2023-07-23T21:49:05
|
2024-01-22T16:59:00
|
2024-01-22T17:03:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gTHYNO2zLO6n1jApbTt4
|
Twitter/X launches a financial product within three month?
|
Linda Yaccarino (today): X is the future state of unlimited interactivity – centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking – creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities. Powered by AI, X will connect us all in ways we’re just beginning to imagine.
Jan 2023: Musk has said he wants Twitter to offer fintech services such as peer-to-peer transactions, savings accounts and debit cards, as part of a master plan to launch an “everything app” that incorporates messaging, payments and commerce. In 1999, Musk co-founded X.com, one of the first online banks, which later became part of payments giant PayPal.
Closed betas don't count. Public launch in e.g. the US does count.
The financial product needs to not be primarily about twitter's social features - so 'better tweet monetization' doesn't count.
|
2023-07-23T21:48:50
|
2023-10-22T16:59:00
|
2023-10-22T17:00:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CCcj4Ooq3nY9xGS8Kimk
|
Will twitter.com still exist? (2024)
|
There's been concerns: Elon Musk has said Twitter is at risk of declaring bankruptcy, many engineering staff have been laid off, rumors of lurking technical debt that could bring down the site irrecoverably, landlords not being paid on-time, Twitter is being rebranded to X and a new domain is being set up, and likely more-to-come.
Resolves YES if twitter.com is accessible by web browser as of market close, and any new message is able to be posted to the site. Otherwise NO. This market does not resolve NA.
Temporary outages do not count, and if it's unclear whether an outage is temporary or permanent the market can be extended by up to 1 week before it will just resolve NO.
If twitter.com redirects to any other site(such as x.com) or subdomain, then the new domain is considered twitter.com as long as any publicly-available messaging service is available there. It's acceptable to require free or paid signups. I will attempt to use my existing Twitter account, but if it's banned or disabled due to lack of payment I will rely on credible reporting that there is still an active messaging service on the domain.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/will-twitter-still-exist-by-end-of)
|
2023-07-23T20:27:01
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T13:30:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DBj2fXnKUtkPojNVRO6A
|
Will the Central African Republic approve the new constitution in the July 30, 2023 referendum?
|
The Central African Republic, a nation in in central Africa, will hold a constitutional referendum on Sunday, July 30, 2023. The main issue seems to be about abolishing (or at least resetting) term limits for the nation's president. (The current president, Faustin-Archange Touadera, is already on his second term.)
As usual, I will use the mainstream media to resolve this market. (YES means that the new constitution takes effect, and NO means it does not.) If the election is rescheduled or the results are delayed, I'll update the close date and description accordingly. If no such election occurs by the end of 2023, then this market resolves N/A.
|
2023-07-23T18:55:25
|
2023-08-27T14:04:54
|
2023-08-27T14:04:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ITo0bCc4Pvjj0GH87c25
|
Will Trump be held under house arrest at Trump Tower at any point before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-23T15:30:53
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:28:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R2kPh6MTCkqbx04pCdTk
|
Will HPMoR be sold on Amazon?
|
Will physical copies of the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality book series be sold on Amazon by the end of the year?
This market resolves yes if I can go to amazon.com and order a physical copy of [ETA 29 Oct 2023: at least the first volume of] [ETA 31 Oct 2023: all volumes in the series of] HPMoR and it arrives at my place, and predict that other people can order it too, just like a normal book; there should be a supply of >200 copies (i.e. this is not just a small number of second-hand copies, or similar).
|
2023-07-23T15:01:27
|
2023-12-07T10:23:07
|
2023-12-07T10:23:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ApfRxtYnqceyhA6F7OXi
|
Will Kalshi have a market on the 2024 elections?
|
Resolves YES if Kalshi has a market on the outcome of any of the following 2024 US federal elections:
Presidential election
Specific Congressional races (House or Senate)
Congressional control (House or Senate)
The market must exist before election day, November 8 (ET). Resolves YES if the market exists at any point, even if it is later removed.
For background, Kalshi's proposal to create these markets is currently being reviewed by the CFTC: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/06/24/cftc-kicks-off-review-of-kalshis-congressional-control-prediction-markets/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
They previously applied for election markets in 2022 and were denied: https://manifold.markets/SG/will-kalshi-receive-regulatory-appr
|
2023-07-23T14:45:12
|
2024-09-12T12:04:04
|
2024-09-12T12:04:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S77S4Yyk4l62BUiMvN87
|
Will Destiny replace Qorantos with another permanent "Kick or Keep" host? (before December 23th)
|
There has to be at least one episode where there is a new cohost AND destiny has to make it clear that the new cohost is a permanent replacement not just a fill-in.
OR
If somebody else replaces qorantos for at least 3 episodes in a row that would also count without the official announcement.
If the show gets permanently cancelled this resolves NO.
|
2023-07-23T14:33:30
|
2023-12-22T14:47:25
|
2023-12-22T14:47:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kwOpE4JnaBSUeRZ2kYTx
|
Will Henry Kissinger survive 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-23T13:00:31
|
2023-11-29T17:50:13
|
2023-11-29T17:50:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Msv1pzFVzSLXO6YuzjiX
|
Will Charlie Munger survive 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-23T12:56:06
|
2023-11-28T16:20:17
|
2023-11-28T16:20:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xkqAkPgpogdZVOU9rcxt
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of 2023?
|
Meaning at point of market close - not "at any point before market close".
Same resolution criteria as this other market, just for end of 2023:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo)
|
2023-07-23T12:26:28
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-20T06:09:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o2fKPGSM88oXIWqV0sJB
|
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
|
#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden
|
2023-07-23T12:26:17
|
2024-09-03T20:33:34
|
2024-09-03T20:33:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r1wn97L80yAxLALCQe1p
|
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-23T12:25:54
|
2024-07-28T08:26:09
|
2024-07-28T08:26:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4DPM3aWmR5w8Fr2ur2LT
|
21. Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023?
|
Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.
This is question #21 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
|
2023-07-23T12:25:24
|
2023-09-01T15:38:05
|
2023-09-01T15:38:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YjnDIMxO1GtjRlie2JhC
|
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
|
Close date updated to 2024-08-02 12:59 am
|
2023-07-23T12:24:42
|
2024-07-21T15:25:02
|
2024-07-21T15:25:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YqdFXdeL8OAL3M3U1got
|
Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?
|
I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews are still coming in. The review embargo lifts today at 7pm ET.
Barbie - Rotten Tomatoes
|
2023-07-23T12:23:08
|
2023-08-17T23:59:00
|
2023-08-28T12:50:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vaTlp1X7rnrtNmZaBrbR
|
Will r/place say "fuck spez" when it closes?
|
Resolves whenever this edition of r/place ends. If the exact text "fuck spez" is visible in the final snapshot, resolves to YES, otherwise NO.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/20/23801716/reddits-r-place-protest-art
[link preview]Reddit users are complaining about admins messing with the canvas to remove messages and imagery protesting against Reddit.
When asked if Reddit will remove the protesting messages, spokesperson Courtney Geesey-Dorr pointed to the r/Place canvas rules. One of those rules says that “targeted hate or harassment of private individuals (including mods and admin) and protected groups are violations of our [content] policy (Rule 1) and will be removed. In addition, posts, comments, and imagery that are hateful, graphic, sexually-explicit, and / or offensive are violations of our policy (Rule 6) and will be removed.”
|
2023-07-23T12:22:50
|
2023-07-27T12:32:42
|
2023-07-27T12:32:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-68q8QvRQzSIaRcsLeDh4
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
|
including tests
|
2023-07-23T12:18:07
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-05T10:38:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2NdgWhsOyVj33PoqFsL4
|
July 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000?
|
If in July 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2023-07-23T12:07:19
|
2023-08-02T11:52:48
|
2023-08-02T11:52:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ilb68yDUJZsXIIuCyfr1
|
Will Leo Messi become MLS 2024 Top Scorer?
|
This will resolve to YES if at the end of 2024 MLS Lionel Messi has scored the highest nmber. ofleague goals
|
2023-07-23T12:05:57
|
2024-10-25T14:29:20
|
2024-10-25T14:29:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y3j2DOOzqr4MLm9pqO2v
|
Will the twitter post button still be called "Tweet" in two days?
|
musk is being hypomanic again https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1683171310388535296
|
2023-07-23T11:59:38
|
2023-07-25T23:59:00
|
2023-07-26T00:08:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wTwEN2nwnZOaazmsDUBM
|
Jurgen Klopp will be the manager for Liverpool FC on February 16th, 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-23T11:39:08
|
2024-02-16T10:29:00
|
2024-02-18T13:50:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mQQXKrtcIWCgiSg9rtO9
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race
|
2023-07-23T10:52:49
|
2023-09-03T08:04:51
|
2023-09-03T08:04:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2HTLAWGsW6nMpy5pglGC
|
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?
|
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race.
|
2023-07-23T10:52:49
|
2023-09-03T08:17:32
|
2023-09-03T08:17:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w7qiRagaxZzAY2lZwZyo
|
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 3, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T10:52:39
|
2023-09-03T08:05:23
|
2023-09-03T08:05:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4eyYDPil74GmkCLByM8f
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on September 3, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T10:52:39
|
2023-09-03T08:06:14
|
2023-09-03T08:06:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FAqdlM9oWlrTIF2tcVty
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?
|
The race will take place on September 3, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T10:52:37
|
2023-09-03T08:05:49
|
2023-09-03T08:05:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rUUxol6LemuFp50dEJMQ
|
Will Twitter rebrand in 2023?
|
[tweet]
If in 2023, Twitter changes its brand substantially, this will resolve to YES.
Substantial rebranding includes change of logo, name, or some kind of brand acquisition (ie. X-Twitter, or Twitter by Xeta, etc.)
Such redesign must remain for at least 9 days to resolve YES.
|
2023-07-23T09:26:07
|
2023-08-05T09:48:48
|
2023-08-05T09:48:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NRypzhf5y7lSLRUvb8y5
|
Will the 2023 F1 Belgian Grand Prix be red flagged?
|
Resolves to YES if:
The Race session of the 2023 F1 Belgian Grand Prix is red flagged at least once during the race. Does not count any flags thrown during other sessions (nor any after the final car has crossed the checkered flag).
Resolves to NO otherwise.
Resolves to N/A if the race does not take place.
|
2023-07-23T07:52:55
|
2023-07-30T07:29:20
|
2023-07-30T07:29:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N9WHWdVENP6dGIfRlWAZ
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race
|
2023-07-23T07:52:25
|
2023-08-27T08:30:40
|
2023-08-27T08:30:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hxUaDeZZC45OjUMoYgb2
|
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race.
|
2023-07-23T07:52:24
|
2023-08-27T08:30:27
|
2023-08-27T08:30:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oZo86crnHO5SniPPWAZC
|
Will Alex Albon finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T07:52:23
|
2023-08-27T09:27:08
|
2023-08-27T09:27:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CztasU0Ev7A4sR6idpWd
|
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T07:52:02
|
2023-08-27T09:20:06
|
2023-08-27T09:20:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i29AlH2cGlm6o2wPXGA2
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T07:52:01
|
2023-08-27T08:32:29
|
2023-08-27T08:32:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qc1RuvmQksW2ruTqdFDc
|
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on August 25, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T07:52:00
|
2023-08-27T09:23:31
|
2023-08-27T09:23:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SyxgdUKQkBQZvetPvMyo
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
The race will take place on August 27, 2023.
|
2023-07-23T07:51:55
|
2023-08-27T08:29:01
|
2023-08-27T08:29:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xqJW5EYMPNLMQ7NB2qSH
|
Will 'Barbie' gross over $160m on opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
If there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-07-23T07:10:52
|
2023-07-24T15:57:36
|
2023-07-24T15:57:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P3tx73R0ghk5RrRzhGNW
|
Will Meta's Threads introduce ads on the platform in 2023?
|
Ads, sponsored links, etc.
|
2023-07-23T02:08:52
|
2023-12-31T21:48:04
|
2023-12-31T21:48:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LXg4YSOnOpdUE1VWjiZk
|
Will 2023's temperature exceed previous years' for 30 days in a row again (in the rest of the year)?
|
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
Will there be a period of consecutive 30 days in which the line for 2023 is above* the lines for all the other years?
*In case the temperatures on the graph are equal for 2023 and some other year, the data with 3 decimal points available on the website will be checked. Resolves YES if the 2023 temperature is strictly greater each day. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/cfsr_world_t2_day.json
|
2023-07-23T01:16:57
|
2023-09-13T22:05:07
|
2023-09-13T22:05:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gBfVqCkGAfh4n8314REA
|
Will Twitter's logo still be a bird in a month? [musk tweet]
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds
|
2023-07-22T21:28:46
|
2023-07-24T20:43:50
|
2023-07-24T20:43:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fGdIr309OMgTL6ZijybD
|
Will Twitter's logo still be a bird in a week? [Musk tweet]
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds
|
2023-07-22T21:28:35
|
2023-07-24T20:41:21
|
2023-07-24T20:41:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n8wrhuSHh8fnV9TGDk5D
|
Will Twitter rename in a month [Musk tweeted]?
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 - And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds
Does he mean it?
|
2023-07-22T21:25:32
|
2023-07-27T20:03:27
|
2023-07-27T20:03:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EEJkCG5MoBM41s8UtuOv
|
Will Twitter rename in a week [Musk tweeted]?
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673 - And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds
Does he mean it?
|
2023-07-22T21:25:21
|
2023-07-27T20:02:51
|
2023-07-27T20:02:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A6c3m9I7FnDyjzNWwtwS
|
Will 500+ people die from heat waves in the US this year?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_American_heat_waves
Resolves YES if 500 or more people die in American heat waves this year.
Otherwise resolves NO.
|
2023-07-22T19:22:26
|
2023-12-11T15:50:43
|
2023-12-11T15:50:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G6heTXOR4vbhlwwNatKK
|
Will The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom win Game of the Year at the 2023 Game Awards?
|
The Game Awards is an annual awards show for video games. If The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom wins the "Game of the Year" category, resolves to YES. If otherwise, resolves to NO. Closing date subject to change depending on date of awards show, but it is always held in early December and has never been held after December 12. Question will close on the day of the show.
|
2023-07-22T18:55:28
|
2023-12-06T20:59:00
|
2023-12-08T12:34:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZoyLxzfXydAjOsb0JqRo
|
Will Theo Baker sell the film rights to the story of him taking down the President of Stanford as a freshman?
|
So he isn't any ordinary freshman it turns out, but rather the son of Peter Baker, NYTimes chief White House correspondent, and New Yorker columnist Susan B Glasser. And during his freshman year at Stanford he took down the president of the university. Incredible.
Resolves YES if the kid sells the movie rights to this story before the end of 2024.
|
2023-07-22T11:20:20
|
2024-12-31T00:04:52
|
2024-12-31T00:04:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W0sZA4pc3Dza5rExDtV6
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Iowa Caucuses?
|
This guy is definitely the most charismatic candidate in either party. Maybe the only charismatic candidate now that Trump has lost his touch. He could be the Mayor Pete of 2024.
|
2023-07-22T07:50:19
|
2024-01-28T17:00:04
|
2024-01-28T17:00:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NT1M9E6JqmVKpLbJQZYT
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be on the GOP ticket in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-22T07:47:43
|
2024-07-15T13:01:33
|
2024-07-15T13:01:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qn88EyO6GVPw7oYg5Z5A
|
Will there be more than 160 goals scored at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-22T07:18:15
|
2023-08-16T05:06:50
|
2023-08-16T05:06:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uO2zGQPN9FvoezTkIM6H
|
Will any Senate seat flip from Republican to Democratic in the 2024 elections?
|
Will any Senate seat held by a Republican before the 2024 elections be won by a Democrat?
See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-any-senate-seat-flip-to-the-re
@/JosephNoonan/will-any-independent-or-thirdparty
|
2023-07-22T06:28:10
|
2024-11-07T19:12:30
|
2024-11-07T19:12:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gFVLLGjCbne8WUfCPsBz
|
Will at least three candidates win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
|
Resolves YES if at least three candidates win the most delegates in at least one state each during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO if two or fewer candidates win the most delegates in at least one state.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
|
2023-07-21T23:48:18
|
2024-06-14T00:02:57
|
2024-06-14T00:02:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rRYogIM0PNXQmRQile6G
|
Will Neuralink begin recruitment for the clinical trial of its brain implants by the end of Sep 15, 2023?
|
Note: The patient registry available on Neuralink's official website (as available on Jul 21) will not count for a YES resolution since that registration is not recruitment/enrollment for their clinical trial.
|
2023-07-21T19:57:17
|
2023-09-16T11:49:09
|
2023-09-16T11:49:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RIyeL7xiMbfFoG4JJCi9
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win at least two states in the Republican primaries?
|
Resolves YES if Vivek Ramaswamy wins the most delegates in at least two states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
|
2023-07-21T17:31:31
|
2024-06-14T00:03:51
|
2024-06-14T00:03:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8NGsFJpzQsmjsoR8cvjx
|
Will Xi Jinping visit Cuba by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-21T15:24:27
|
2024-12-31T13:36:50
|
2024-12-31T13:36:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Yk7rG8q7vDoa4G3SoyGa
|
Will Bibi Netanyahu visit Beijing before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-21T15:21:44
|
2023-12-31T20:52:23
|
2023-12-31T20:52:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3NYNJeHZilPZoHjP8FD3
|
Will the Washington Football Team change its name away from the Commanders before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-21T11:08:25
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-01T13:20:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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