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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-xgfLvLGmOkceaYkzDM09
|
Will Scott Alexander publish a review of the movie Oppenheimer in 2023?
|
Has to be a blog post / magazine article / any long form, written content (tweets explicitly do not count).
Has to be written by Scott Alexander. Anonymously published content credibly attributable to him does not count.
Has to satisfy at least one of the following conditions:
It refers to the movie in the title.
It refers to the movie in at least 50% of its highest-level subdivisions.
|
2023-07-21T10:59:39
|
2024-01-01T11:02:14
|
2024-01-01T11:02:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6F5ZEC3VpY9WY6C3Ay7i
|
Will July 2023 be the hottest July on record?
|
As per NOAA's global report for July, will July 2023 be the hotest recorded July?
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
[link preview]
|
2023-07-21T08:07:12
|
2023-07-31T20:59:00
|
2023-08-15T10:50:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LCkKoFlaeCpUZ25cjWiY
|
Will August 2023 be the hottest August on record?
|
As per NOAA's global report for August, will August 2023 be the hotest recorded August?
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
[link preview]
|
2023-07-21T08:05:34
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-09-21T14:23:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ATOR6lHTIjFuJCRcwejb
|
Will there be any unfaithful electors in 2024?
|
Will any members of the Electoral College vote for a candidate other than the one they are assigned to?
|
2023-07-20T21:06:02
|
2024-12-17T22:10:30
|
2024-12-17T22:10:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9mFM1IASRswPnpXTgicr
|
Will Seattle's rents increase in 2023?
|
This market will resolve based on data from:
https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/seattle-wa/
Specifically, will median rents in Dec 2023 be higher than in Dec 2022
As of the posting of this market, Dec 2022 median rents were listed as follows:
[image]Inspired by a @RexSalisbury market.
|
2023-07-20T20:33:22
|
2023-12-13T12:49:11
|
2023-12-13T12:49:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QfJvkMP7DmAorGVrPocu
|
Will Lex Fridman interview MBS by the end of 2023?
|
@LexFridman seems to be talking to folks in the Middle East. If I were him MBS would be at the top of my list of people to try to talk to. I bet Elon can make that one happen.
Resolves YES if it happens.
|
2023-07-20T18:05:49
|
2023-12-31T20:52:36
|
2023-12-31T20:52:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fHMA9rR3HN0VWvMn1bwm
|
Will 'Oppenheimer' (2023) gross more than $1B worldwide before 2024?
|
Will resolve based on the Box Office Mojo reported numbers. Will resolve YES if it reaches $1 Billion worldwide, or NO if it hasn't reached $1 Billion worldwide in the Box Office Mojo total by Jan 1, 2024.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15398776
|
2023-07-20T15:03:17
|
2024-01-01T04:03:57
|
2024-01-01T04:03:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6QTI8DeoYoBtW0LELPno
|
Will Mbappé leave PSG?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Mbappé has signed for any team that is not PSG during the transfer window. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will also resolve to “No” if it is announced that Mbappé has signed a contract extension with PSG.
If a club announces that Mbappé has signed with them but later retracts that announcement, this market will resolve according to the initial announcement.
This market's resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either PSG or the signing club.
|
2023-07-20T14:59:55
|
2023-09-01T21:59:00
|
2023-09-02T01:45:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LPpGqz9JPOVvQZlH1aUV
|
Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend?
|
This is a market on how much 'Barbie' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
If there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
2023-07-20T14:58:15
|
2023-07-24T15:57:08
|
2023-07-24T15:57:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jqm46xIu8St9ubruvXpc
|
Will r/place say "fuck spez" when it closes?
|
Resolves whenever this edition of r/place ends. If the exact text "fuck spez" is visible in the final snapshot, resolves to YES, otherwise NO.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/20/23801716/reddits-r-place-protest-art
[link preview]Reddit users are complaining about admins messing with the canvas to remove messages and imagery protesting against Reddit.
When asked if Reddit will remove the protesting messages, spokesperson Courtney Geesey-Dorr pointed to the r/Place canvas rules. One of those rules says that “targeted hate or harassment of private individuals (including mods and admin) and protected groups are violations of our [content] policy (Rule 1) and will be removed. In addition, posts, comments, and imagery that are hateful, graphic, sexually-explicit, and / or offensive are violations of our policy (Rule 6) and will be removed.”
|
2023-07-20T14:01:08
|
2023-07-25T15:20:28
|
2023-07-25T15:20:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hpWqqmS5yQ2GTVUdMhg3
|
Will Donald Trump participate in the First Republican Primary Debate on August 23th 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-20T11:35:10
|
2023-08-23T23:27:59
|
2023-08-23T23:27:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HdbIHr1FY7w3yxFoG0os
|
Uber forces riders to tip in the US before 2025
|
As of now they just started defaulting to a tip on the post-ride screen. But, you can still opt out.
Note that obscure methods of opting out may still result in a yes judgment of the default is to tip and it's not easy to opt out. By EOY 2024 broad release.
|
2023-07-20T11:32:57
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T00:13:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vNpvjtr57BY7OTJy9fDr
|
Will Messi score a goal in his first Inter Miami match?
|
One played on Jul 21 or whenever his first match will be
|
2023-07-20T09:16:49
|
2023-07-21T19:16:42
|
2023-07-21T19:16:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KDcOh5BQyWzjePauuIq5
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 21st July than it closed on 20th July?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 21st July than it did on Thursday 20th July?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are also some markets on what the FTSE 100 will do in the month of July:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-79f76b84a731
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-july-with
And some longer term markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
|
2023-07-20T07:57:32
|
2023-07-21T08:30:00
|
2023-07-21T08:51:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EysYOxX09bhKi9wXlDhy
|
Will Kizaru appear in chapter 1089?
|
At least one non flashback panel featuring Kizaru on or near the coast of Egghead to RESOLVE YES
|
2023-07-19T20:29:56
|
2023-08-02T14:07:21
|
2023-08-02T14:07:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xftJKxo3d3O0nGjHceeu
|
(Physics) Can one balance on an infinitely narrow beam? (M100 prize for best comment)
|
The balancer could be human or robot.
The beam is long, sturdy and unshakeable, with infinitessimal width and height. (The balancer gets magic shoes to avoid getting sliced and have sufficient friction with the beam)
"Maintain balance" means keeping one's center of mass higher than the beam, even in spite of small external perturbations.
Things that aren't in the spirit of "balancing" (not exhaustive):
Expelling matter irrecoverably from the balancing system doesn't count. (So throwing objects is disallowed unless the balancer also catches them)
Stuff that wouldn't work in a vacuum doesn't count. (So helium balloons or leaf-blowers wouldn't help.)
Other system-boundary violating things that I haven't thought of
Resolves to whatever I'm convinced of in 1 month (before August 19). There will also be at least M100 managrammed to the most-hearted comment.
I won't bet in this market.
|
2023-07-19T15:49:19
|
2023-08-18T23:59:00
|
2023-08-19T11:06:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ch6QsmxnG4lqkSoKcysm
|
Will there be more than 146 goals scored at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-19T12:17:41
|
2023-08-10T20:37:15
|
2023-08-10T20:37:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YgfErIU8NK8VjTFiphN9
|
Will Sam Kerr score 5 or more goals at the Women's World Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-19T12:13:18
|
2023-08-16T04:57:55
|
2023-08-16T04:57:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eueePhVjC2UqDBwoBBjF
|
Will Russia attack any ship going to or from Ukraine by September 1st? [see description]
|
Resolves YES if such an attack is mentioned in NATO, UN or by Russian officials. Resolves NO if there is no mention of such attack by the close date.
UPD 1: military vessels such as https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-forces-destroyed-us-made-military-vessel-near-snake-island-2023-08-22/ are too small and don't qualify.
UPD 2: ships going between ports of Ukraine do count.
UPD 3: ferries on inland waterways don't count; the ship should be able to travel by sea.
|
2023-07-19T11:10:59
|
2023-09-01T13:59:00
|
2023-09-03T01:06:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZR5GeCObqK7rKM7LSSUo
|
Will Trump be indicted in July?
|
Resolves YES if former president of the United States Donald J. Trump is criminally indicted in July 2023 (ET). Otherwise NO.
For this question, the time of indictment is when the grand jury votes to indict.
There may be some time between when this vote happens and when the indictment is publicly reported, so the question will remain open until slightly after the specified deadline.
In the event it is unknown whether the grand jury vote to indict was within the specified timeframe, then we will instead treat the time of indictment as the earliest time it is unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/trump-special-counsel-probe/index.html
“Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
[link preview]
|
2023-07-19T08:51:23
|
2023-07-27T16:23:20
|
2023-07-29T05:30:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jw8IRI09MWUMZAG1p3zS
|
Will Trump be arrested in July?
|
Resolves YES if former president of the United States Donald J. Trump is arrested or arraigned in July 2023 (ET). Otherwise NO.
Note that voluntary surrender is an arrest.
Being arraigned will count as a YES resolution (arraignment typically, but not always, comes after arrest).
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/trump-special-counsel-probe/index.html
“Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
|
2023-07-19T08:23:50
|
2023-07-31T20:59:00
|
2023-08-01T05:11:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VfHReBPZiGCe7resk4wa
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 31st than it closed on July 28th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-19T03:57:23
|
2023-07-31T11:00:00
|
2023-07-31T13:08:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-30pLYaDkqMsuzaJ7fxx7
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 28th than it closed on July 27th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-19T03:56:53
|
2023-07-28T11:00:00
|
2023-07-28T14:04:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6xNhknKUQOxTidJZgi4Y
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 27th than it closed on July 26th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-19T03:56:32
|
2023-07-27T11:00:00
|
2023-07-27T13:16:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gPRXVJgVLiO9lJ9qXVHf
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 26th than it closed on July 25th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-19T03:56:07
|
2023-07-26T11:00:00
|
2023-07-26T13:25:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dKF4JBREZ0gcEPh8kxDE
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 25th than it closed on July 24th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-19T03:55:43
|
2023-07-25T11:00:00
|
2023-07-25T13:58:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CMQoYUvb7DmYA78BGEUm
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 24th than it closed on July 21st?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-19T03:55:08
|
2023-07-24T11:00:00
|
2023-07-24T15:06:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qd0FM49FrZFKzxqBjysW
|
Will the US and Iran go to war by end 2024?
|
US sends more fighter jets and warship to Gulf after Iran attempts to seize tankers
Resolves YES if, by the end of 2024, either nation formally declares war, if either nation invades and occupies the other's undisputed sovereign territory with military forces, or if de-facto war breaks out in the form of multiple skirmishes. Otherwise, resolves NO.
|
2023-07-19T02:37:32
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T13:48:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bRo1vaIRheKNctpoVA83
|
Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 16th August be below 7%?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday 16th August.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March 2023 - 10.4%
April 2023 - 10.1%
May 2023 - 8.7%
June 2023 - 8.7%
July 2023 - 7.9%
August 2023 - TBC
(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 7.0%)
|
2023-07-18T23:22:33
|
2023-08-16T00:00:00
|
2023-08-16T00:45:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ebOd3TellEBygbMSq0gi
|
Trump meets Elon by 2025
|
Before 2025
Real photo or video required
|
2023-07-18T20:24:55
|
2024-10-06T08:10:15
|
2024-10-06T08:10:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F5jTYCQhiTdkJC8k0HvS
|
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he win the popular vote?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump Sr. is elected and receives a pluraity of the popular vote, NO if he wins and another candidate receives a plurality, N/A otherwise.
|
2023-07-18T18:29:40
|
2024-11-05T02:59:00
|
2024-11-06T09:10:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yR0Jv5kJnumy3BJ5LfbE
|
Will Meta pull Llama 2 / make it closed source due to PR before 2025?
|
This question resolves YES if Meta will restrict access to Llama 2 in response to misuse of their models before 2025.
|
2023-07-18T14:12:22
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-27T06:03:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3ayeYFLIYWLMPEG2NaQy
|
Will Barbie gross more than $1 billion by the end of the year?
|
Resolves yes if before jan 1st t
2024 wikipedia records a box office gross of over 1 billion dollars (and this is not a result of wikipedia vandalism)
Resolves no otherwise
|
2023-07-18T14:06:56
|
2023-08-06T15:16:32
|
2023-08-06T15:16:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JeFJ1GITeDCHmtePxQvd
|
Will a mammal photosynthesise by 2030?
|
https://www.sciencefocus.com/nature/can-any-animals-photosynthesise/
[link preview]
|
2023-07-18T13:58:12
|
2024-05-15T09:54:08
|
2024-05-15T09:54:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7VYYr0rEmxasCY9wTWV1
|
Will "Zelda: Tears of the kingdom" win game of the year?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-18T13:57:53
|
2023-12-07T20:12:26
|
2023-12-07T20:12:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5c0QfInbmHn2WMS5Ppkr
|
Will Ukraine sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by November 30?
|
Resolves YES if the following Metaculus question resolves before market close: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/
|
2023-07-18T12:39:55
|
2023-11-30T11:00:00
|
2023-11-30T14:35:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ygPCEAe5sACuYCqnkxHt
|
Will Ukraine sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by October 31?
|
Resolves YES if the following Metaculus question resolves before market close: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/
Question is about the conceptual Land Bridge not the Kerch /Crimean bridge.
[image]
|
2023-07-18T12:36:04
|
2023-10-31T12:00:00
|
2023-10-31T12:03:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f6s2aIgph5pQOh24JjN0
|
Will UPS union workers strike on August 1, 2023?
|
Rumblings of a looming UPS strike.
Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/17/ups-strike-could-cost-us-economy-billions-heres-how-it-would-impact-consumers/amp/
[link preview]Resolves YES for a strike beginning at the conclusion of existing contract/agreement on July 31, 2023.
Resolves NO if contract resolution occurs prior to July 31, 2023, or any situation, including but not limited to an extension to the existing agreement, that delays a workers' strike beyond a start date of August 1, 2023.
|
2023-07-18T10:35:09
|
2023-08-01T17:51:27
|
2023-08-01T17:51:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9zEmcafHioF3kCwnaA27
|
Will there be a Llama 3? (March 2024)
|
Context: Llama 2 - Meta AI
Llama 1 was released February 24, 2023
Llama 2 was released July 18, 2023
When will Llama 3 be released?
Resolves YES if there's a new model in the LLama series by end of March 2024. NO otherwise. NA if Facebook ceases to exist.
Must be announced by Facebook/Meta. Weights must be available to anyone - leaked or annoyingly licensed weights count as long as anyone can access them. Doesn't matter if the model is faster, better, larger, cheaper to run, as long as it's a new major version it will count. Code to use the weights is not necessary, although they would be expected to release together. Minor updates or new finetunings won't count - has to be a new major version, and if there's disagreement about what counts as a major version I'll estimate the GPU-hours of training and compare that.
|
2023-07-18T09:52:51
|
2024-03-31T23:59:00
|
2024-04-01T05:59:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-njng74Vt4mFeYMMYEvZy
|
Will Lex Fridman interview a head of state by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-18T09:32:20
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:01:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb
|
Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?
|
I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews are still coming in. The review embargo lifts today at 7pm ET.
currently we are in "it's really close and reviews are still coming in", but 'its close' is losing out - right now barbie needs a +23 fresh margin to continue, and the trends are not favorable. If the pace of reviews is less than 15 on July 29th, I will close the market.
Barbie - Rotten Tomatoes
|
2023-07-18T09:11:22
|
2023-07-30T09:49:48
|
2023-07-30T09:49:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XBLmCkJ8dWycXhOqxzuK
|
Will a Ukrainian grain ship be sunk by Russia by September 1st?
|
This market will resolve Yes if the New York Times or another paper of records Russia actively sank a Ukrainian grain ship (hitting a mine isn't active like a missile, torpedo, or direct attack).
|
2023-07-18T01:21:17
|
2023-09-01T20:59:00
|
2023-09-09T14:09:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TI4wY7MrXPBXbYLwOfun
|
Trump in or near Cybertruck by 2025
|
Before 2025
In or near one
Real photo or video required
|
2023-07-17T23:01:38
|
2024-08-05T23:42:42
|
2024-08-05T23:42:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OFZLqu7qzxs8ZRR09bAh
|
Will the US Open 2023 final be Alcaraz vs Djokovic?
|
Resolves yes if the US Open 2023 mens sigle finals is Alcaraz vs Djokovic
|
2023-07-17T11:35:00
|
2023-09-08T19:44:54
|
2023-09-08T19:44:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-19CyxPgCXvudA9ZATymG
|
Will the NHTSA allow any cars on the road without steering wheels, mirrors, turn signals or windshield wipers in 2023?
|
In the US, self-driving
|
2023-07-17T07:37:05
|
2023-12-31T20:06:50
|
2023-12-31T20:06:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HkkdQFveFo66Ef26SO3b
|
Will 80% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 9th August?
|
Last month, on 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.
The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up - we originally thought that this might happen within a few days but the rate of reopening slowed down futher and further and it was eventually hit on 3rd July.
@/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
@/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833
@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1
@/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
How much longer will it take to hit 80%?
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2006/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 22.7%. If this figure ticks below 20%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Wednesday 9th August July at 21:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
|
2023-07-16T23:52:09
|
2023-08-09T13:00:00
|
2023-08-09T13:12:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K6x8FpGHB53f6w3q75so
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy get at least 10 delegates in the Republican primary?
|
Specifically, the 2024 U.S. presidential primary.
|
2023-07-16T19:42:21
|
2024-07-16T19:35:03
|
2024-07-16T19:35:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SRtyUYfP0KIS8frjJisl
|
Is Lord Miles alive as of July 16th?
|
I will resolve once there's proof that internet celebrity (Lord) Miles Routledge is either alive or dead of July 16th, 2023, or resolve N/A if his status is still unknown by the start of 2024.
|
2023-07-16T17:51:58
|
2023-10-10T10:12:33
|
2023-10-10T10:12:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kPxLkIEr8eX7dbFTr8ht
|
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 17th than it closed on July 16th?
|
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $30,247.60
|
2023-07-16T17:32:23
|
2023-07-17T16:00:00
|
2023-07-17T17:01:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GfG1Q18SapZvIOLikUqw
|
Will Aston Villa Win the 2023/2024 Europa Conference League?
|
Aston Villa qualified for the 23/24 Europa Conference League season after a victory against Brighton at Villa Park left them in 7th place. Unai Emery's team will be one of the favourites to lift the trophy, both due to his previous European experience, and West Ham's success in the previous season.
|
2023-07-16T13:00:22
|
2024-05-11T11:06:33
|
2024-05-11T11:06:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2UMc5i62TjypVjBeQuGB
|
Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?
|
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17772/russia-landing-on-moon-with-the-first-attempt/
This question resolves Yes if Russia successfully lands on the Moon with their first attempt. As a first attempt, we count the first mission to be launched with a lunar lander on board and the stated intention to land the lander on the moon. This will be considered the "first attempt" even if Roscosmos decides at any point not to attempt the landing.
If there is a failure during the rocket launch from Earth it will count as a failure of the mission if the spaceship or lander are destroyed.
If the launch is aborted or if there is a malfunction of the rocket during the launch attempt which does not cause the destruction of the spaceship and/or lunar lander, another launch will still count as a first attempt.
The landing must be a soft landing, meaning that the lander must touch the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing but the lander is still able to perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment then it will still qualify as a successful landing. The landing must be confirmed by credible media sources.
This question resolves No if Russia’s first attempt to land on the Moon fails.
In the unlikely case of Roscosmos or any Russian officials claiming that the landing was successful but this claim is being challenged by other countries' space agencies or by credible media sources, then the question will resolve ambiguously unless Metaculus Admins decide that the evidence provided by one side is proof which removes any reasonable doubt (something like NASA images of the crashed lander or images of the intact lander taken from orbit or from the surface of the Moon taken by the lander if their authenticity is independently confirmed).
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AVS/will-the-russian-luna25-mission-rea)
|
2023-07-16T00:09:14
|
2023-08-20T06:16:20
|
2023-08-20T06:16:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LLAmmvCqITvU7DUPNlzk
|
Will Elden Ring DLC come out before March 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if a paid DLC is released by From Software for Elden Ring before March 2024.
A bugfix or minor update does not count.
|
2023-07-15T23:53:23
|
2024-02-21T17:25:24
|
2024-02-21T17:25:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EPdk4b7hwAAfiwINOE9h
|
Will a Republican win Florida by more than 5% in the 2024 POTUS election?
|
Trump won it by 3.4% in 2020. However, it has been trending towards the Republicans recently, especially in 2022.
|
2023-07-15T20:17:04
|
2024-11-06T06:17:13
|
2024-11-06T06:17:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fyP7szS1wIhVqENrBB9b
|
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
|
Resolves yes if xAI is commonly perceived as being in the same tier as OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic on January 1, 2025.
Inherently subjective, but factors to be considered are: funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media, and its CEO's presence alongside other major lab CEOs at major meetings with e.g. world leaders, plus anything else that seems pertinent.
Resolves no if the criteria are never met, or if they're met, but xAI goes bust or gets absorbed by a pre-existing top lab before the close date. If xAI gets bought by a then-not-major lab/player (e.g. Apple), the market resolves yes if the criteria have otherwise been met.
I won't trade in this market.
|
2023-07-15T13:40:27
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-02-09T12:28:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DIuD9wB2JPh4t6NXCtBz
|
Will PvdA-GroenLinks be part of the next governing coalition of the Netherlands?
|
A party is only part of the new governing coalition ministers or secretaries of state from that political party are appointed as part of the new government OR the party explicitly promises to support the policies of the new government, such as in a minority government.
If a caretaker government is appointed in 2023 or 2024 the question will stay open until a new government is formed.
This question will resolve positively if one, both, or a new merged political party will participate in the government.
|
2023-07-15T13:22:26
|
2024-07-02T04:10:12
|
2024-07-02T04:10:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5NLNKwJGNnfAqy2chdPm
|
Will the PVV be part of the next governing coalition of the Netherlands?
|
A party is only part of the new governing coalition ministers or secretaries of state from that political party are appointed as part of the new government OR the party explicitly promises to support the policies of the new government, such as in a minority government.
If a caretaker government is appointed in 2023 or 2024 the question will stay open until a new government is formed.
|
2023-07-15T13:21:31
|
2024-07-02T04:10:18
|
2024-07-02T04:10:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WXvLexCNKiJK4a8eGqc9
|
Will D66 be part of the next governing coalition of the Netherlands?
|
A party is only part of the new governing coalition ministers or secretaries of state from that political party are appointed as part of the new government OR the party explicitly promises to support the policies of the new government, such as in a minority government.
If a caretaker government is appointed in 2023 or 2024 the question will stay open until a new government is formed.
|
2023-07-15T13:20:55
|
2024-05-30T16:59:00
|
2024-07-02T04:12:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HXX8qdJQlb7yeugUVTNS
|
Will Leo Messi become MLS 2024 Top Scorer?
|
This will resolve to YES if at the end of 2024 MLS Lionel Messi has scored the highest nmber. ofleague goals
|
2023-07-15T12:18:21
|
2024-10-26T07:46:24
|
2024-10-26T07:46:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZrQA8VaK4gCUk3T6JLO7
|
Will there be an active Threads account for the President of the US by the end of 2023?
|
The official Instagram account for the current US President (Joe Biden) is @potus. As of market creation, it does not appear that this account has signed up for Threads. Will it?
Resolves YES if there is an official Presidential account on Threads which has made at least five posts or replies by the close date. Resolves NO otherwise.
Considerations:
The account must be hosted specifically on Threads. A Presidential account on any other service which is integrated with Threads (such as "fediverse" services) will not count.
In the event that Threads unlinks registration from Instagram accounts and a new Presidential account is created without being explicitly linked to the @potus account on Instagram, that will still count, as long as it's clear that the account is official and under the control of the actual President's staff.
|
2023-07-15T08:02:56
|
2023-11-21T13:22:34
|
2023-11-21T13:22:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6xReZuiJu4bZFwVmh7x7
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo score WDC points in the 2023 F1 season?
|
Resolves yes if Daniel Ricciardo scores points in the 2023 F1 World Drivers Championship.
Resolves no if RIC scores no points.
Resolves n/a if the championship is cancelled or fundamentally altered
|
2023-07-15T05:58:09
|
2023-10-29T20:30:26
|
2023-10-29T20:30:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wbE25zkoGuE8ntSVHfhr
|
OpenAI raises GPT-4's cap to more than 25 messages every 3 hrs by July 31, 2023
|
[image]
Resolution to YES: I open chat.openai.com and go to GPT-4 or code interpreter and this message is either gone or has an increased cap (i.e. more than 25 per 3 hr timeframe)
Resolves to NO if its the same or if the cap decreases.
|
2023-07-14T23:56:16
|
2023-07-21T20:26:35
|
2023-07-21T20:26:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MgtX1QvXTB6dbYH41zZA
|
Will the popular vote margin be at least 5% in 2024?
|
Will the winner of the popular vote for U.S. president win by at least 5%?
|
2023-07-14T20:44:38
|
2024-11-15T21:27:07
|
2024-11-15T21:27:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xobHUE51nY6zV0xjoARc
|
Will one party win at least 228 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024?
|
In the regular elections for the 119th Congress. Currently, the Republicans hold a majority of 222 seats.
|
2023-07-14T19:53:35
|
2024-11-14T21:56:02
|
2024-11-14T21:56:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ami0S3fbvMLnZFIonqqk
|
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the U.S. presidential election. It doesn't have to be the same candidate who wins. It's possible for this not to happen if third parties or independents get enough of the vote that neither major party makes it to 50%.
|
2023-07-14T19:19:41
|
2024-11-30T21:59:00
|
2024-12-01T01:08:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AN1EfuwN3Ek5w6vqePMx
|
Will Threads have "culturally dethroned" Twitter as the de facto online public square at end of 2024?
|
Twitter has always punched above its weight, having an outsized cultural influence and role compared to its number of active users.
When journalists quote social media, they do so by embedding tweets far more than Facebook posts.
Twitter currently sits on the throne of being the de-facto online public square.
Even if more conversations are happening elsewhere, conversations on Twitter are treated as more salient, more public, more notable for inclusion in news articles about what people are discussing on social media.
It is the primary social network used by journalists, politicians, and influential people generally.
If you are a business with only one social media account, it's probably Twitter.
This market resolves YES on my subjective judgement that, at the end of 2024, Meta Threads has largely displaced Twitter in this special spot at the top of the hierarchy of social media platforms.
It will resolve NO if Twitter largely still maintains its current status in this regard, and N/A if it is too close to call.
I will be leaning heavily on the concept of twitter being the "de facto online public square", all other facts about it, like who uses it, whether journalists embed tweets in news articles, are primarily evidence toward or against it having this role.
This market will close at the end of 2024 and I will outline my opinion on whether this has happened, leaving opportunity for people to convince me of their views before resolving, to increase the chances of a fair resolution. External evidence should play into resolution such that it does not depend solely on my opinion - for example, opinion pieces or news articles by reputable people discussing "the decline in Twitter's influence" or "Threads' failure to catch on among elites" or so forth, will be good evidence either way.
As resolution may require significant judgement on my part, I will not bet on this market. Though for full disclosure if I were to bet, at time of writing it would be on NO.
I may resolve early if it is abundantly clear that Threads has dethroned Twitter earlier.
My aim in resolving "at" end of 2024 rather than "before" end of 2024 is to avoid having to draw a line during what might be a slow transition. So the spirit of this market, is a dethroning "before" end of 2024, but the letter is "at". The latter is in the service of the former, and I will resolve in line with the spirit of the market rather than the letter, if there is a conflict.
Within reason, and in response to good suggestions from commenters, I may adopt more specific resolution criteria that reduce the level of judgement required. But these will be a guide only, and will not cause the market to resolve counterintuitively if it turns out there is a conflict between the spirit and letter of the resolution criteria.
Edit July 2023: for the purposes of this market, any rebranding of or clear successor to Twitter counts as Twitter. Good rule of thumb: does your Twitter login work still? If yes, it's still Twitter.
|
2023-07-14T17:12:28
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:22:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wQEeuKm1gL3E1Jokq4sy
|
Will there be another Taylor Swift song-Magic: The Gathering card name collision by end of 2024?
|
Once I realized "Getaway Car" was shared, I was curious how many other examples there were. By searching scryfall.com for any Taylor Swift names that sounded plausible, I got this list (minus Wildest Dreams which @audrey found after I missed it):
"Last Kiss" from TS's Speak Now (Oct. 2010) and MTG's Rise of the Eldrazi (Apr. 2010)
"Starlight" from TS's Red (2012) and MTG's Portal (1997)
"Wildest Dreams" from TS's 1989 (2014) and MTG's Kaladesh (2016)
"Exile" from TS's folklore (2020) and MTG's Alliances (1996)
"Getaway Car" from TS's reputation (2017) and MTG's Streets of New Capenna (2022)
"Karma" from TS's Midnights (2022) and MTG's Limited Edition Alpha (1993)
The first example includes the song and card releasing in the same year! And the last two examples are both new to 2022.
Capitalization doesn't matter for this market. Neither do parentheticals like "feat. Bon Iver." Titles do matter though, so Ivy, Gleeful Spellthief is distinct from the song "ivy". Spacing also matters.
With bigger corpora than ever, the breakneck speed of MTG releases these days as well as Taylor's Versions and a new album (@/Arnav1312/will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-alb) on the horizon, will there be another name shared by a Taylor Swift song and a Magic: The Gathering card by end of 2024? (It must be a new example, not just one I missed that already existed.)
See also @/Conflux/will-the-next-taylor-swift-songmagi
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-07-14T15:33:38
|
2024-03-29T18:36:33
|
2024-03-29T18:36:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AgQlbfTTXU3F6mjM2rTQ
|
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas before the end of August?
|
The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty but I will not wait until the next year's NHC report which sometimes includes reassessments.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Source: National Hurricane Center
[markets]
|
2023-07-14T14:12:11
|
2023-08-31T13:56:27
|
2023-08-31T13:56:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i4JjxKGL5FpOjVghX5tN
|
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida before the end of August?
|
The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty but I will not wait until the next year's NHC report which sometimes includes reassessments.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Source: National Hurricane Center
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NicoDelon/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-anyw)[markets]
|
2023-07-14T14:11:35
|
2023-08-30T04:57:21
|
2023-08-30T04:57:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z01NfjW9UzEfgr2FU7mU
|
Will Destiny talk to Nick Fuentes by the end of August?
|
Starting 7/14!!! Doesn't include F&F from this week
|
2023-07-14T10:43:59
|
2023-08-31T19:47:12
|
2023-08-31T19:47:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5hJrJER4jYAi7EeWBdQM
|
Will the BBB be part of the next governing coalition of the Netherlands?
|
A party is only part of the new governing coalition ministers or secretaries of state from that political party are appointed as part of the new government OR the party explicitly promises to support the policies of the new government, such as in a minority government.
If a caretaker government is appointed in 2023 or 2024 the question will stay open until a new government is formed.
|
2023-07-14T09:51:14
|
2024-06-29T16:59:00
|
2024-07-02T04:12:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pZyOtSaEwgVXX6xTeU8O
|
Will the VVD be part of the next governing coalition of the Netherlands?
|
A party is only part of the new governing coalition ministers or secretaries of state from that political party are appointed as part of the new government OR the party explicitly promises to support the policies of the new government, such as in a minority government.
If a caretaker government is appointed in 2023 or 2024 the question will stay open until a new government is formed.
|
2023-07-14T09:49:30
|
2024-07-02T04:10:05
|
2024-07-02T04:10:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2BWELNlvyWG7dYsrkw7p
|
Will Threads have more MAU than Twitter by the end of 2023?
|
Based on latest publicly available figures for either platform (i.e. as shared by the companies themselves, not rumours)
If latest latest data is not available, I will wait until 1st March 2024 to resolve.
I will not vote.
|
2023-07-14T08:53:31
|
2024-03-01T15:59:00
|
2024-03-02T13:04:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TSoXcwMMTNAqQtTiNGTa
|
Will Rational Animations video 'The Goddess of Everything Else' hit 1 million views before 2025?
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbwp4PbWYzw
[link preview]
|
2023-07-14T07:21:32
|
2023-12-13T23:43:27
|
2023-12-13T23:43:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-evNABatwCVTSYGv14z3Y
|
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on December 21st, 2024?
|
The market may resolve earlier than the final date.
[image][image]
|
2023-07-14T05:11:36
|
2024-12-21T22:00:00
|
2024-12-22T13:46:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hmh48kqfV9CdhIchj5ep
|
Will Sepp Kuss start the 2023 Vuelta a España?
|
Will the mountain domestique compete in all three Grand Tours?
|
2023-07-14T04:56:37
|
2023-08-26T11:13:55
|
2023-08-26T11:14:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qi81pD8UmwSVDBWilzEM
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 21st than it closed on July 20th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
You can now bet on all markets in one convenient click!
https://manifold.markets/portfolio/sp-daily-markets-week-29
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-14T02:58:38
|
2023-07-21T11:00:00
|
2023-07-21T13:16:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kULhL2GjtJTGz7oUYWGu
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 20th than it closed on July 19th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
You can now bet on all markets in one convenient click!
https://manifold.markets/portfolio/sp-daily-markets-week-29
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-14T02:58:11
|
2023-07-20T11:00:00
|
2023-07-20T22:49:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I9kUjdArHLpD8arsYoQE
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 19th than it closed on July 18th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
You can now bet on all markets in one convenient click!
https://manifold.markets/portfolio/sp-daily-markets-week-29
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-14T02:57:50
|
2023-07-19T11:00:00
|
2023-07-19T15:15:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JnPU12pPEKWgc9oZIvPN
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 18th than it closed on July 17th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
You can now bet on all markets in one convenient click!
https://manifold.markets/portfolio/sp-daily-markets-week-29
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-07-14T02:57:30
|
2023-07-18T11:00:00
|
2023-07-18T13:39:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nuKCZrGYLbZLW6H6udKm
|
Will the Dodgers win the World Series this year?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-13T21:35:07
|
2023-10-12T06:38:56
|
2023-10-12T06:38:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tKyXwE5KQyKpxA5GhRpd
|
Will Destiny squat 225lbs for 5 reps by the end of 2023?
|
Market will be resolved if he says he did it, video proof not required.
|
2023-07-13T15:16:59
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:16:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X4iLiZbf9OLzvCRXpYR2
|
Will there be an Israel-hezbollah war by October 6?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-13T08:18:00
|
2023-10-06T13:59:00
|
2023-10-06T14:35:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hle18PxuoepYiP30k7MG
|
Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 11th August show positive growth?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 BST on Friday 11th August.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (June in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution notes:
A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO
This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0d91564112fa
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0599143ef1b0
|
2023-07-12T23:05:36
|
2023-08-10T23:37:34
|
2023-08-10T23:37:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-44oM22ZG2w0e5u7b3kzX
|
Will either of Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren win the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
|
Chet and Wemby vs the field. Chet is eligible for the award since he sat out the entire 2022-23 season due to injury.
|
2023-07-12T21:21:59
|
2024-05-06T16:01:32
|
2024-05-06T16:01:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1JEXIvf7E7p0RmGCl2eD
|
Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP through 2024
|
Resolves as YES if Elon Musk publicly criticizes China, Chinese government policy, the Chinese Communist Party, or major CCP figures (such as Xi Jinping) in the time period from the creation of this question to the start of 2025
Data must come from Musk's Twitter feed (or an equivalent social media source known to be operated by Musk) or a direct quote of Musk reported in a reputable news organization. Indirect attribution does not count. (For example, if a person goes on record and says that Elon was criticizing Xi at a party, then that doesn't count.)
If Musk tweets and then quickly deletes a criticism, the question will resolve as YES if the tweet was stored in a reputable archive website or stored and reported by a reputable news organization.
Any Musk criticisms that occurred before market creation do not qualify.
As it is hard to follow all of Musk's activity, I welcome market participants to report criticisms that may qualify in the comments page. Please provide a link to a data source that meets the criteria above.
The definition of criticism used in this question comes from the Oxford English Dictionary: "[Criticism is] the expression of disapproval of someone or something on the basis of perceived faults or mistakes."
Since I will have extraordinary discretion over what constitutes criticism, I will not purchase YES or NO tickets in this market or any related market.
Note: unless there is major controversy I will defer to the judgment of @/mr22222222/elon-musk-criticizes-china-or-ccp-b
|
2023-07-12T20:40:50
|
2025-02-14T22:53:25
|
2025-02-14T22:53:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UaOySfsWNWNmOHZpnRg0
|
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $200 before $180?
|
Last price: 2023-08-10 $177.97 (day high $180.75)
(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) after market creation (2023-07-12) during which the price stays above $200 (YES) or below $180 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:
Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $200
Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $180
Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $200 then quoted prices next day would be $100 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2).
|
2023-07-12T18:02:21
|
2023-08-11T13:42:08
|
2023-08-11T13:42:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L4FUgw58Vcnmjq2j1cJs
|
Will the next Starship-Superheavy launch take place on September 6th (6/9 in D/M format), 2023?
|
Resolves YES if there is a Starship-Superheavy launch on September 6th, 2023, in the local timezone at the launch site.
Resolves NO if there is a launch (after market creation) prior to that date, or if that date comes and goes without a launch.
"Launch" here means release of hold-down clamps following main engine ignition, even if the vehicle subsequently explodes or even was, unbeknownst to automation systems, already in the process of exploding when the command to release the clamps was given.
I'm using this definition because, in the event of an explosion, it seems likely easier to verify whether the hold-down clamps were released, than whether the vehicle lifted off the pad by some millimetres.
If it turns out this is a bad definition, I reserve the right to use a more sensible one to resolve the market in the spirit in which it is intended, or to resolve N/A if this isn't feasible.
|
2023-07-12T16:12:50
|
2023-09-06T23:41:28
|
2023-09-06T23:41:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-53O7JrAKMBQ4Rh4KBDKa
|
If Joe Biden is not the nominee, will a Democrat win the 2024 presidential election?
|
If Biden is the Democratic Party nominee, this resolves N/A, otherwise resolves YES if the winner of the 2024 election is a Democrat or is nominated by the Democratic National Convention, NO if it's a Republican or third party.
Basically, the goal of this market is to see whether the market thinks democrats would do better if Biden was not the nominee. This is inspired by one of Robin Hanson's ideas for conditional prediction markets where there would be a conditional market on a company's stock price if they fired their CEO.
|
2023-07-12T15:58:29
|
2024-11-06T08:39:00
|
2024-11-06T08:39:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-84Z66rsG81WVKwFB8L0O
|
Will Google's Gemini model be released in 2023?
|
Resolves if the model could reasonably described as being released in 2023. Feel free to posit grey area release scenarios and we can reach a consensus.
List of events qualify to resolve this market YES:
Released to the public
Open Beta
Paid but otherwire open service
Leaked weights that have been packaged to be usable by laymen
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released
Closed Beta with proof of >=10,000 users
List of events that do not qualify to resolve this market YES:
Leaked weights that are useless
Closed Beta with no proof of user numbers
Closed Beta with <10,000 users
Limited researcher only release
List of events that immediately resolve this market NO:
Project renamed and takes vastly different direction
Project cancelled
Not released by 2024
Model explicitly permanently not released due to risks
Also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/brubsby/when-will-googles-gemini-model-be-r)
|
2023-07-12T12:35:51
|
2023-12-06T11:08:28
|
2023-12-06T11:08:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JS1nxqjDmiV9PqLAsH21
|
Will the U.S. inflation be 3.3% or less in July 2023?
|
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to June 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 3.0%.
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.3% or less in July 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.053108)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)
|
2023-07-12T11:18:27
|
2023-08-10T10:26:04
|
2023-08-10T10:26:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QPlExWuCmotSw7Km6tLV
|
Putin ends war in Ukraine before 2025
|
YES if Putin is alive and in control of Russia and the war is over
NO if Putin dies, loses power, or is in power while the war is going on at due date.
|
2023-07-12T10:49:30
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T00:12:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Jk4UF2gvzOJDaEPzcQ4G
|
Will Adam or Ben win/be on the winning team of Jet Lag season 7?
|
Resolves N/A if theres no season 7
Resolves N/A if Adam and Ben are both not participating in season 7
Closing time might be updated.
|
2023-07-12T10:30:41
|
2023-10-18T16:37:21
|
2023-10-18T16:37:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p70qCbl61n2CY8PByXCq
|
Will Chelsea sign Moises Caicedo before the transfer deadline?
|
Will Chelsea sign Moises Caicedo during this transfer window? (2023 summer transfer window). Any official confirmation from Brighton or Chelsea resolves this as YES (for example a Twitter announcement from one of their accounts).
|
2023-07-12T07:18:04
|
2023-08-14T10:49:28
|
2023-08-14T10:49:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rwo4kj2xiHYb8vmzurV5
|
The Gypsy King vs The Predator: Will Tyson Fury beat Francis Ngannou in their historic fight, October 28?
|
Tyson Fury is scheduled to fight Francis Ngannou at Riyadh Season October 28th, 2023 at the King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This will be their first fight under boxing rules.
Tyson Fury is the WBC heavyweight champion and one of the best boxers of his generation. He has a record of 32 wins, 0 losses and 1 draw, with 22 knockouts.
Francis Ngannou is the former UFC heavyweight champion and one of the most powerful punchers in MMA history. He has a record of 17 wins and 4 losses, with 13 knockouts and 4 submissions.
If Tyson Fury wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Francis Ngannou wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is declared a No Contest or if the fight is canceled, this market will resolve to N/A.
If the fight is moved to a later date, I will change the question wording and resolution date to reflect the new event and date.
|
2023-07-12T06:45:57
|
2023-10-28T23:15:55
|
2023-10-28T23:15:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rvBMcgKdvK25bjlGzNcz
|
Will the U.S. inflation be 3.6% or less in July 2023?
|
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to June 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 3.0%.
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.6% or less in July 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.941936)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)
|
2023-07-12T05:50:56
|
2023-08-10T17:00:00
|
2023-08-11T18:09:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OOgLTmIqHIOcPvfLJ0Pu
|
Will Turkey's Parliament ratify Sweden's accession to NATO before August 12 2023?
|
As reported by credible news sources. I see little need for further distinction or elaboration here.
Before August 12 2023 means EOD August 11 local Turkish time.
|
2023-07-12T00:11:58
|
2023-08-12T07:16:13
|
2023-08-12T07:16:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Yl13LXwWfUc4SP3T4ZpR
|
Will Hungary's Parliament ratify Sweden's accession to NATO before August 12 2023?
|
As reported by credible news sources. I see little need for further distinction or elaboration here.
Before August 12 2023 means EOD August 11 local Hungarian time.
|
2023-07-12T00:11:29
|
2023-08-11T15:00:23
|
2023-08-11T15:00:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i0DzJFBHAVV4ywwNM4GF
|
Will Meta discontinue development of Threads by Jan 1 2025?
|
I will resolve it YES if it is deleted from iOS and Android app stores (updated from: I will resolve YES if major tech publications will announce that)
|
2023-07-11T15:39:48
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T18:51:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lduWZUQg9LjIt1BKpj7U
|
Will any driver other than Max Verstappen score more points than Sergio Perez in the 2023 F1 WDC?
|
Resolves "yes" if a driver other than Max Verstappen scores more World Driver Championship points at the end of the 2023 Formula 1 season.
Resolves "no" if either PER scores the most points or comes in second behind VER.
Resolves "n/a" if PER is removed from the WDC for any reason.
|
2023-07-11T08:51:05
|
2023-11-27T06:18:05
|
2023-11-27T06:21:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z3W0xxXOxJJFdBPgHX1F
|
Will Arsenal finish ahead of Manchester United in the 2023/2024 Premier League season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-07-11T05:29:28
|
2024-05-06T19:20:39
|
2024-05-06T19:20:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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