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forecasting

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mani-qHOrgc7V26cPSrfpZC8r
Will the BBC presenter accused of paying a teen for sexually explicit photos be named in the press within a week?
Non-tabloid, British press. Can be fully couched in "alleged" "accused" "presumably" kind of language, but there must be more or less a consensus that this is the person who is accused.
2023-07-11T03:42:06
2023-07-12T13:24:11
2023-07-12T13:24:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UWgrnj0kjG9KwbAbUWc5
Will Sergio Perez drive for Red Bull in the 2024 F1 Season?
Resolves positive if Sergio Perez is under contract for at least one race during the season.
2023-07-11T01:32:22
2024-02-29T15:59:00
2024-03-02T04:13:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8txPIqLonHzjh1JWLqG6
Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17767/luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023/ This question resolves as "Yes", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution. If the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as "No". If any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as "No".
2023-07-10T22:12:44
2023-08-11T11:12:56
2023-08-11T11:12:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7h3HFtBwWkucPYgcbHpq
Will robo-taxis from Cruise and Waymo be permitted to operate 24/7 by 2023-08-10?
According to this article, a government approval has been delayed. If the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approves it by August 10, then this market resolves to yes. If it is delayed or voted down, then the market resolves to no. https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/10/cruise-and-waymos-24-7-san-francisco-robotaxi-operations-delayed-by-state-regulator/ [link preview]
2023-07-10T21:50:47
2023-08-10T23:59:00
2023-08-13T14:57:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-36hoUkrkyFA8L3wK2b18
Will actors strike by the 13th?
Writers across the U.S. have been on strike since May 2, in a massive blow to the entertainment industry. Furthermore, actors and actresses (unionized as SAG-AFTRA) have also been considering a strike - despite contract negotiations originally having a deadline of June 30, they considered pushing it to July 7, and then officially pushed it to July 12. Both writers and actors have been calling for better job security and protection from AI. This market resolves YES if a significant number of actors and/or actresses go on strike on or before Thursday, July 13, 2023, and NO otherwise. I will use the mainstream media to resolve this market. This is a follow-up to my previous market about the original deadline.
2023-07-10T20:49:55
2023-07-13T20:59:00
2023-07-13T21:17:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WhXwTTwzOQUPEcSu7bXD
Will Messi average 1 goal/game or more with Inter Miami?
In the 2023 season, will Messi average 1 goal/game or more with Inter Miami? Question begins after Messi plays his first game, and applies to games he is not playing for (if any). The goal of this is to rate Messi's overall impact on the team. So if he's not playing, he's not having an 'on-field' impact.
2023-07-10T18:40:32
2023-11-20T12:21:30
2023-11-20T12:21:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XfqpBjYERuErRIxc1pbN
Will Zelenskyy attend the 2024 NATO summit?
Will the Ukrainian president attend the summit in person? (Digital participation does not count.)
2023-07-10T15:35:50
2024-08-18T09:48:40
2024-08-18T09:48:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7UIPl9CBMauAOwme6F8I
Will F-16s be announced to Turkey in 2023?
Turkey has been asking for F-16 jets for quite a while, but members of the US Congress have resisted. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/us/politics/us-turkey-f16s.html Resolves based on credible media reporting regarding a deal between the Turkish and US government. Only requires an announcement in 2023, not necessarily an actual delivery.
2023-07-10T15:10:24
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fGWx4HEBbIRSPb3qeRMm
Will Prigozhin be charged with corruption by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-10T08:31:34
2023-08-31T06:07:00
2023-08-31T06:07:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9KFWAlx03XYpta5XnFXe
Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant be destroyed this summer?
Shorter timeline than the other markets. Apparently Russia has placed mines there, will they press the big red detonate button? Resolves YES even if it's unclear what caused the destruction. https://kyivindependent.com/on-the-edge-of-disaster-what-could-really-happen-if-russia-destroys-the-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/ https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4084262-ukraine-russia-stoke-nuclear-fears-zaporizhzhia-plant/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/01/zelenskiy-warns-russia-could-be-ready-to-provoke-nuclear-plant-explosion
2023-07-10T01:22:40
2023-08-31T11:00:00
2023-08-31T11:06:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bDAHf8ZfDeWbD7wPC7o6
Will total global corporate investment in AI in 2023 reach $300 billion, according to the Artificial Intelligence Index?
See the question and its resolution criteria on gjopen: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2728-will-total-global-corporate-investment-in-ai-in-2023-reach-or-exceed-300-billion-according-to-the-artificial-intelligence-index Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has grown considerably in just the past decade, with some raising concerns about the potential consequences of embracing the technology (TechRepublic, World Economic Forum, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using 2023 data as first published in the 2024 AI Index Report published by the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, expected in March 2024 (Stanford University). In 2021, the total annual investment in AI companies in the world was $176.47 billion (Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2022, see Figure 4.2.1 on page 151). Inflation-adjusted historical data may also be found on Our World in Data (Our World in Data).
2023-07-10T01:13:34
2024-04-15T02:47:57
2024-04-15T02:48:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-C53d2hXHigYwqDu0iimx
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win more delegates in the GOP primary than Doug Burgum?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-10T00:11:59
2024-01-16T18:15:30
2024-01-16T18:15:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ckvCMQZ57FBZdSX0PiA2
Will a size measurement contest happen between Zuckerberg and Musk happen in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-09T23:15:30
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:23:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ffKmjOKFccMK3RJwnrPd
Will Barbie gross 2x Oppenheimer domestically in July?
If there is sufficient interest I will open markets for other months and for international gross Will be resolved using Box Office Mojo data
2023-07-09T23:09:09
2023-08-01T00:00:00
2023-08-01T22:25:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iHKtelnXauJm6Ev9OCDc
Will the government of any country be involuntarily dissolved or overthrown before September 1?
The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, after July 10 before September 1. Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government. The question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, after July 10 before September 1. The question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances between July 10 and September 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively. See the May and June iterations of this market below for detailed conversation about many different scenarios and how they would resolve. Please propose any hypotheticals for clarification in the conclusion, but ground them in a reference to a real world event related to the potential resolution of this market and not things like "what if the AI takes over the government". This market has proven to produce fun and engaging conversations about political volatility and government stability. Please be kind to each other! (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-the-government-of-any-country-69412c2fc865)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-the-government-of-any-country)
2023-07-09T22:33:03
2023-07-28T16:17:50
2023-07-28T16:17:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mG9K7zyX7IiMRHqITFYq
Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 1 week before mid 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-09T16:44:19
2023-10-12T15:49:45
2023-10-12T15:49:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Z4k6Fp0dshmFgArG0JFT
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) before the end of 2024?
Will we be able to synthesize basically any photo from a text description and sample images of people we want in the photo? This is a duplicate of the following market, with everything except the timeframe remaining the same: (https://manifold.markets/embed/dreev/instant-deepfakes-of-anyone-within?r=R2FtYmxpbmdfR2FuZGFsZg)Please refer to the main market for detailed resolution criteria. When in doubt, I'd consult with @dreev for his opinion because if something resolves this market, then it resolves the main market also.
2023-07-09T12:28:46
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T16:22:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eZBxSTEd1g0V668OU7sg
Will a whistleblower disclose the location of the alleged untransportable UFO during a public Congress hearing?
According to a tweet by @PostDisclosure, journalist Ross Coulthart claims to know the exact location of an alleged UFO that is reportedly too heavy to transport. The tweet suggests that this information will come out "some day" and calls for Congress to investigate. This prediction market aims to determine whether a whistleblower will reveal the location of the alleged untransportable UFO during a public Congress hearing before August 31, 2024. The market resolution criteria will be based on the disclosure of the exact location by a credible whistleblower during an official public hearing in Congress. The revelation should be verifiable through reliable sources. If such an event occurs within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve as "yes." The tweet implies that Ross Coulthart's knowledge might not be exclusive, suggesting the possibility of other individuals having this information as well. Bettors are invited to make their predictions based on the likelihood of a whistleblower sharing the location during a congressional hearing. Sources: - Tweet by @PostDisclosure: [link](https://twitter.com/PostDisclosure/status/1677760231881809920?t=_DAqpSqld0k0b1RjQZzzNw&s=03)
2023-07-09T02:39:58
2024-08-31T19:59:00
2024-09-01T04:49:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AiFbsyUauRem2NyZGyJI
Will Dricus du Plessis beat Israel Adesanya?
If Dricus du Plessis wins the fight, this market will resolve to YES. If Israel Adesanya wins, or the fight results in a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If it is called a No Contest on the night, or if a fight between the two does not occur before either of them retires, this market will resolve N/A.
2023-07-09T00:27:22
2024-08-18T06:36:29
2024-08-18T06:36:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kkADUUNcbI4Wi2bpQQsW
Will destiny's youtube channel hit 693k subscribers in July?
Going by his socialblade. @/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6 @/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-67504f80b5ab @/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-cf43dfc20933 @/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-996ed1f443cb
2023-07-08T22:52:36
2023-07-31T21:00:00
2023-07-31T23:09:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zCwSGwS9w15pJ1s1O85y
Will the Finnish government collapse this year?
The most recent round of Finnish parliamentary elections were held on April 2nd, 2023. The liberal-conservative party Kansallinen Kokoomus won the election with 20.8% of the national popular vote, while right-wing populist Finns party acheived a record 20.1%, and previous Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s center-left party SDP securing 19.9% of the votes. The negotiations to form the new coalition government took place after the election and lasted for 78 days, the second longest negotiations in Finnish history. The new coalition government was formed on June 20th, 2023. The current coalition government is composed of five parties: the Social Democratic Party of Finland (SDP), the Centre Party, the Green League, the Left Alliance and the Swedish People’s Party of Finland. Just 18 days after the formation of the new government, economics minister Vilhelm Junnila narrowly survived a vote of no confidence, by a margin of 95-86, amidst concerns about jokes he had previously made about Nazism, sterilization in Africa, and the KKK. 7 members of his own coalition voted against him and had the entire opposition coalition been present, it is considered likely he would have lost the vote. Such a rapid attempt to oust a minister has called into question the fragility of the Finnish government. Will the Finnish government collapse in 2023? The question resolves YES if the government resigns, is ousted by a vote of no confidence, or a general election is called through any other means. Resolves NO otherwise.
2023-07-08T20:34:12
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T02:39:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gu3nVaGQnMvoXNimPlff
Will the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander successfully land on the moon?
https://www.space.com/india-stacks-chandrayaan-3-moon-mission-rocket-photos [link preview]Has to successfully land on the moon. 'success' being defined as it lands, and is still able to send back telemetry. If there is radio silence after the scheduled landing period, its considered a 'failure'
2023-07-08T18:26:00
2023-08-23T06:26:51
2023-08-23T06:26:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ttPUowpQ9G1RCxj5NFyq
Will Team Fortress 2 receive a substantive update with new content by the end of 2023?
The market resolves YES if Team Fortress 2 receives one or more updates with new non-cosmetic content - new weapons, new map types/game modes, a new merc - by the end of 2023. It resolves NO if Gaben continues to operate on Valve Time. Clarification: just as merely adopting existing community maps wouldn't count for the purposes of this question, neither will merely adopting an existing community mode. Valve must create fully new content - an update-sized update, if you will - in order for this market to resolve YES.
2023-07-08T17:29:14
2023-12-31T14:22:03
2023-12-31T14:22:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qwzFPgQSGRGQ9WvVpdtS
Will the USD/RUB exchange rate hit an all-time high in 2023?
The current USD/RUB record exchange rate was 134.00 Rubles per US Dollar, recorded on March 11th, 2022. Will the exchange rate exceed this high at any point in 2023? Resolves YES if Google Finance displays a number greater than 134 for the USD/RUB exchange rate on the monthly graph at any point in 2023.
2023-07-08T14:25:35
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T02:39:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-552u4weCKCAPKRCFwgAC
Will the USD/RUB exchange rate exceed 100 for at least 1 month in 2023?
In the face of international sanctions, Russia has been attempting to keep the USD/RUB exchange rate down through monetary policy. The exchange rate peaked at 134 on March 11th, 2022, but fell to around ~60 for the latter half of 2022. Throughout 2023, it has been steadily rising. Will the USD/RUB exchange rate exceed 100 for a continuous period of 30 days in 2023? Resolves according to the prices displayed on Google Finance. Clarification: Exceeding 100 for a continuous period of 30 days means that Google Finance must display the daily price as >100 for 30 days in a row. In line with my other USD/RUB market, this will be assessed by looking at the data points from the Google Finance monthly chart. It seems this was the consensus understanding, but if anyone feels deceived by this, you can leave a comment. Currently, Oct 5th, 6th, and 7th are showing as >100, so we are at 3 continuous days.
2023-07-08T14:20:08
2023-12-10T13:56:10
2023-12-10T13:56:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j
Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?
Last week the WSJ reported he "microdoses ketamine for depression and takes larger doses at parties". Such a revelation would typically result in the loss of an individual's security clearance. He has previously been investigated for using marijuana and did not lose his clearance. Ketamine, however, is taken much more seriously. (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-the-us-government-open-an-inve-ef87da1dd6bf)
2023-07-08T11:24:36
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T22:19:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Dl4ei5al9SNrqXe2vayb
Will Michael Lewis be charged with a crime related to SBF and FTX?
Before 2025
2023-07-08T10:27:20
2025-01-24T13:45:56
2025-01-24T13:45:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qnB30tUVftcsxnNu4YIs
Will Putin visit Turkey in August?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-08T08:51:55
2023-08-31T20:59:00
2023-08-31T22:22:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7GfbxKAYyMjZZqLkv2R5
Will Putin visit Turkey in August 2023?
At a press conference on July 8, Erdogan claimed Putin was coming for a visit to Turkey in August 2023. Will this visit take place as claimed?
2023-07-08T02:50:11
2023-08-31T15:00:00
2023-08-31T22:19:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fMXkwOiOvg2jhtGwLroN
Will mainstream news report that Prigozhin is alive and free by end of July?
Any news coming from any one of: • The New York Times • The Wall Street Journal • The Washington Post • ABC • CNN • Fox That reports evidence that Prigozhin is not captured/imprisoned/dead will resolve yes. Things that are insufficient to resolve yes: • Speculation about motives of Prigozhin • Reports of whereabouts of Prigozhin that include no evidence (anonymous sources are not considered evidence in this case) • Hearsay. Sources that claim Prigozhin is free must provide some verifiable evidence to the claim.
2023-07-07T22:38:10
2023-07-23T14:42:48
2023-07-23T14:43:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yYCU0A8QczUxXGLpXMV1
Will Lex Fridman really interview Benjamin Netanyahu?
Podcast episode featuring Benjamin Netanyahu must be posted before market close. https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1677511251310567424 [image]
2023-07-07T21:40:18
2023-07-12T08:59:10
2023-07-12T08:59:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-romicmcjVX0M4q4UiQma
Will someone hack the Las Vegas Sphere by the end of 2023?
The Sphere is a spherical music and entertainment arena in Paradise, Nevada, near the Las Vegas Strip and east of the Venetian Resort. Will someone hack The Sphere to display any image/video not approved by Sphere Entertainment Co and/or its owners by the end of 2023?
2023-07-07T18:09:08
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-02T00:38:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-49ZMJruLKhdyfaT0MnI2
Will at least 5,000 Wagner soldiers relocate to Belarus during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-07T16:17:37
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T00:33:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4Rf1DcD4kQDRTV37lP8C
Will Superalignment succeed, according to Eliezer Yudkowsky?
If @EliezerYudkowsky believes Superalignment has succeeded in the goal of "solv[ing] the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years [i.e. by July 5th, 2027]", this market will resolve YES. If the team dissolves, reorganizes, or pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem and Eliezer does not believe they have yet succeeded, this resolves NO. Resolution will be based on Eliezer Yudkowsky's public communications (e.g. on the AI Alignment Forum or in the comments here). Resolution may be delayed after July 5th 2027 until Eliezer's belief about this is clear to me. May resolve to % if Eliezer so decides.
2023-07-07T16:07:29
2024-05-19T21:22:42
2024-05-19T21:22:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kP2ejsTEg3QT2PigCesV
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-07T12:53:42
2024-01-09T08:25:29
2024-01-09T08:25:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zZHmgH0omgzSs17RZ5C2
Ukraine will be given/sold 20 or more F16s before 2024
They must have arrived in Ukraine. They do not need to have been flown yet.
2023-07-07T11:54:41
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T17:35:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-p5qsivAKqQG34KqakRE9
Will July 6th be the hottest day for a week (until Jul 12 2023)?
July 6th Obs Temp was 17.23°C. Includes Jul 7 - Jul 12 Resolves NO if a day has a temperature above 17.23°C according to https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
2023-07-07T11:03:46
2023-07-13T12:43:43
2023-07-13T12:43:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-s86H6lTC5uDdRbqs1098
Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on September 14, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-07T11:00:04
2023-09-28T16:55:19
2023-09-28T16:55:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fugkpTzZUhP4q1sBRBby
Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on August 14, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-07T10:59:39
2023-08-14T06:47:36
2023-08-14T06:47:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-B8s1S29nkffVNSJxF9pk
Will threads.net be in the top 50 most visited websites at the end of 2023?
Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites threads.net is not in the top 50 as of market creation. Similarweb, the website that Wikipedia sources their list from, lists it as #2,875,528 globally. Resolves based on whatever data is there on Jan 1, 2024. If Wikipedia lists threads.net as 51st or lower (so not in the list at all), resolves NO. If threads.net is 50th or higher, resolves YES. Fine Print: This market is about threads.net. If Meta moves it to another url (like .com), it doesn't count for this market.
2023-07-07T10:29:50
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T01:26:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aQXq1GEHiSWvJFa4BTTL
Will Dortmund finally win the 2023-2024 Bundesliga season?
Resolves to YES if Dortmund places 1st at the end of the season in the 2023-2024 Bundesliga, or is mathematically guaranteed to win
2023-07-07T08:37:53
2024-05-13T14:26:13
2024-05-13T14:26:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-l2gTEJbw8aLiOfPlsVuv
Will Bayern Munich win the 2023-2024 Bundesliga... again?
Or will it be another team this year? Bayern -> YES resolution Another team -> NO resolution
2023-07-07T08:36:47
2024-05-01T09:44:16
2024-05-01T09:44:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9lQm0MUigVTHg0FSIaHh
Will any member of Joe Biden's family be indicted for bribery and payoffs from foreign governments by 12/31/2024?
https://youtu.be/J-9a5L_MyKM [link preview]I corrected Biden family to mean any member of Joe Biden's family and others listed here. James Comer, House Oversight Committe Chairman identified nine family members receiving foreign income “Joe Biden’s son [Hunter], Joe Biden’s brother [James], Joe Biden’s brother’s wife [Sara], Hunter Biden’s girlfriend or Beau Biden’s widow [Hallie], however, you want to write that, Hunter Biden’s ex-wife [Kathleen Buhle], Hunter Biden’s current wife [Melissa Cohen], and three children of the president’s son and the president’s brother.
2023-07-07T07:29:04
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-01T16:53:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YfVnmuvvuKJ1YMmJVbqw
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 14th than it closed on July 13th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-07-07T02:18:45
2023-07-14T11:00:00
2023-07-14T13:05:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IxzLd4mb7ioHc0ViO30j
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 13th than it closed on July 12th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-07-07T02:18:25
2023-07-13T11:00:00
2023-07-13T13:23:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MuBoAR0FocmlwDwa53Sp
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 11th than it closed on July 10th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-07-07T02:17:45
2023-07-11T11:00:00
2023-07-11T13:31:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WmyFNvndpd6cMd5izJcI
Will July 6th be the hottest day in Jul 2023?
July 6th Obs Temp was 17.233°C Resolves NO if a day has a temperature above 17.233°C according to https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
2023-07-06T22:09:43
2023-07-31T22:35:44
2023-07-31T22:35:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NaAwOiflmqc0Eqs9XBci
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 7th than it closed on July 6th?
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Previous Close: $29,899.30 SIMILAR MARKET: (https://manifold.markets/embed/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-jul-bbdc151748f3?r=SGF3cw)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-94b986bde2ed?r=SGF3cw)
2023-07-06T17:33:50
2023-07-07T16:00:00
2023-07-07T17:30:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Q8wsxNL2Ny0lYmZuziNj
Will xQc gamble on Stake on his Kick stream before September
Resolves YES if someone posts a clip/screenshot/vod, recorded after the creation of this market and before September 2023 (GMT), of xQc gambling on Stake while livestreaming on Kick.com https://kick.com/xqc [markets]
2023-07-06T14:04:48
2023-08-15T17:59:37
2023-08-15T17:59:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xhrzdcLBNieuN7DqPbhC
Will xQc gamble on Stake on his Kick stream before August
Resolves YES if someone posts a clip/screenshot/vod, recorded after the creation of this market and before August 2023 (GMT), of xQc gambling on Stake while livestreaming on Kick.com https://kick.com/xqc [markets]
2023-07-06T14:03:25
2023-07-31T21:07:50
2023-07-31T21:07:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UOGh6AVoGeyWTfPBsyF0
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win more delegates than Nikki Haley in the GOP Primaries?
Resolves YES if Ramaswamy has earned more delegate votes at the start of the 2024 GOP convention.
2023-07-06T08:48:08
2024-01-26T12:20:39
2024-01-26T12:20:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IFRETFGbzZjnOzKGyf51
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 7th July than it closed on 6th July?
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 7th July than it did on Thursday 6th July? The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. There are also some markets on what the FTSE 100 will do in the month of July: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-79f76b84a731 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-july-with And some longer term markets: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov
2023-07-06T07:52:42
2023-07-07T08:30:00
2023-07-07T09:20:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Rb4owECEmU0O4mCUtDdq
Will Tottenham sell Harry Kane by the end of August 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-06T04:49:24
2023-08-18T14:42:03
2023-08-18T14:42:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dMM2jwwV6RzMjn1jl8E7
Will Threads (Meta’s Twitter alternative) have a feature similar to Twitter Spaces by the end of 2023?
Twitter Spaces are audio chatrooms in which multiple people are able to speak at once. This market will resolve YES if Threads has a feature that fulfils the above criteria or is sufficiently similar. If no such feature exists by 23:59 (GMT) December 31st 2023 then this market will resolve NO. If threads, for whatever reason, is shut down before that point this market will resolve N/A.
2023-07-06T03:46:34
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T05:09:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ICVwCJR1TIQ83mmEKhZm
Will Tony Ferguson beat Bobby Green at UFC 291?
Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green are scheduled to fight on July 29th, 2023 at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City, Utah. If Tony Ferguson wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Bobby Green wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
2023-07-06T02:44:32
2023-07-29T20:02:56
2023-07-29T20:02:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WIc4iI3Ti9QVfLC2Gyu2
Will Meta's Threads successfully integrate with the Fediverse network by the end of 2023?
Background: Threads, an online social media and networking service, is owned by the American company Meta Platforms. This platform is designed to work in tandem with Instagram, requiring users to have an Instagram account to sign up and maintain the same handle. Threads, which allows users to post text and images, reply to posts, or like them, is largely perceived as a direct competitor to Twitter. It has recently announced that it plans to enable users to follow and interact with people on other fediverse platforms, such as Mastodon. Users will also be able to locate people on Threads using full usernames (e.g., @username@threads.net). Resolution criteria: The question resolves as "yes" if there is an official announcement from Meta Platforms or a credible news report confirming the successful integration of "Threads" with the Fediverse network before the end of 2023. This includes functional interoperability between Threads and at least one other platform in the Fediverse network (such as Mastodon) allowing for mutual following and interaction. The question resolves as "no" if, by the end of 2023, the integration has not been successfully completed, has failed, has been rolled back after implementation, or there is no credible information verifying the integration.
2023-07-06T01:35:52
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-03T01:43:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-X3ZtTHgGxQjK9zpf0SKE
Will Threads be available in the EU by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-06T00:23:46
2023-12-15T06:21:16
2023-12-15T06:21:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1lcluzbQsnbfBHukgMHQ
Will Threads be available in the EU by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-06T00:22:35
2023-12-14T06:03:44
2023-12-14T06:03:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rOuEJxbLrSHaIrqeDRnj
Will Elon Musk post on Instagram Threads in 2023?
Will an account verified to be Elon Musk (either by himself elsewhere or Meta) post or reply on the new Meta threads app this year?
2023-07-05T23:43:25
2024-01-01T01:22:37
2024-01-01T01:22:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TS1fbAIqPf252FD7CDK4
Will Ilya Sutskever still be leading Superalignment in 4 years?
Ilya Sutskever (cofounder and Chief Scientist of OpenAI) has made this his core research focus, and will be co-leading the team with Jan Leike (Head of Alignment). Source Resolves NO if a reputable source says that Ilya Sutskever is no longer leading Superalignment.
2023-07-05T22:20:07
2024-07-25T08:26:00
2024-07-25T08:26:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FmPkK3R3Sc4YOYIsIejQ
Will the record for hottest day be broken again in 2023?
July 3-4th were apparently sizzlers.
2023-07-05T22:06:57
2023-07-07T12:50:49
2023-07-07T12:50:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-c9tfFrEMxH05KhNbNuN9
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-05T22:05:00
2025-01-11T01:38:44
2025-01-11T01:38:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-c6FBVlb22ahlemC1amtr
Will No Labels run a third-party candidate for president in 2024?
The political group No Labels has announced plans for creating a third party in the American political scene, aimed at independent voters. They have said that they will decide whether or not to nominate a ticket after the "Super Tuesday" primaries in March 2024. Will they do so? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-labels-is-chasing-a-fantasy/
2023-07-05T20:49:21
2024-04-05T06:27:30
2024-04-05T06:27:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tqzCfKSuSyNrqceeskEO
Will Elon Musk post a Thread by the end of August 2023?
If Elon Musk posts a Thread, this market resolves to YES. I may bet. Related markets [markets]
2023-07-05T19:23:13
2023-08-31T19:59:00
2023-09-03T10:24:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EcCr1BsoPh08jDWX4PML
Will the OpenAI superalignment team believe that their goal has been achieved after 4 years?
https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment [link preview]
2023-07-05T17:05:35
2024-06-17T16:13:09
2024-06-17T16:13:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BFqPJmRdeozDwWysbQoP
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 6th than it closed on July 5th?
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Previous Close: $30,507.30 SIMILAR MARKET:
2023-07-05T17:03:16
2023-07-06T16:00:00
2023-07-06T17:32:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kLrMQOUp4LrElh8WDmnY
Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027?
A team at OpenAI is working to solve the alignment problem. Short of asking whether they will succeed altogether, this question gauges whether it will be publicly known before Jan 1, 2027 that OpenAI has made a significant breakthrough in the alignment problem. The technical details of the breakthrough do not need to be public as long as OpenAI officially announces it and provides evidence, such as a live demonstration or system card, showing what they've achieved. The resolution criteria for "significant breakthrough" is subjective, so I will not bet on this question. I am looking for breakthroughs roughly as significant for alignment as the Transformer was for DL. Here are some example breakthroughs that I think would qualify: Identifying the circuit that does addition in GPT-3, showing how it develops during training in some mechanistic detail, and editing model weights directly to either remove or introduce specific errors in its process (like "when you carry a digit, carry it two digits over instead of one") During training of a large RL model, robustly predict using model weights alone if or how goal misgeneralization will occur in examples far outside the training distribution Solve polysemanticity Detect and demonstrate deceptive alignment in a language model and identify the circumstances under which it develops during training Introduce a new model architecture that has significant empirical or theoretical advantages over Transformers with respect to alignment in particular, without significantly improving on its capabilities Something I haven't mentioned, on an "I know it when I see it" basis. I'm open to community discussion on what qualifies. If the team dissolves or significantly reorganizes before announcing such a breakthrough, this question resolves NO.
2023-07-05T12:08:13
2024-05-17T11:30:56
2024-05-17T11:30:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZPW9teaCxEwJUSjnSNjW
Will Jai Hindley win the 2023 Tour de France?
https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page
2023-07-05T09:36:05
2023-07-23T10:45:41
2023-07-23T10:45:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5GcqYIKZyPowq1qOdQpq
Will an Australian rider finish on the podium of the 2023 Tour de France?
General classification (GC), men. First, second or third place.
2023-07-05T09:19:13
2023-07-23T11:06:25
2023-07-23T11:06:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-T2dkiyHpOldFlwyXpNuP
Will Biden's name appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/05/magazine/democratic-national-committee-2024.html "'the question only is whether or not the president is going to put his name on the ballot. They’re trying to come after New Hampshire, but it’s not going to be successful. So why go through all that pain?'" related markets: @/MattP/will-rfk-jr-win-delegates-from-new @/JosephNoonan/if-biden-isnt-on-the-new-hampshire
2023-07-05T08:02:21
2023-11-14T18:27:06
2023-11-14T18:27:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-REXW5SFXhK8cCtPlMK96
Will Destiny talk to Aella again in July?
Will resolve to YES if destiny and aella talk on video or irl between now and market close. Text conversations don't count.
2023-07-05T07:30:22
2023-07-31T21:00:00
2023-08-01T11:43:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6E5ttKLVMfvgQoSuGx7o
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-05T07:03:46
2024-07-21T16:34:10
2024-07-21T16:34:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KRI3Iv2lWup4wB5XulEt
Will UK inflation be above 4.0% at the end of 2023?
Resolves based on the UK 12 month headline consumer price inflation figure, rounded to one decimal place, for the month of December 2023, as expected to be published by the Office for National Statistics on 17 January 2024 07:00 local time. 4.1% or above = YES. 4.0% or below = NO.
2023-07-05T04:56:40
2024-01-16T23:59:36
2024-01-16T23:59:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ie4qayS0tiYdniebPYvG
Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16003/google-search-with-llm-responses/
2023-07-05T02:02:44
2023-07-31T13:59:00
2023-08-03T14:58:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0wSHIZtHdj85ty7SKil9
Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17554/black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023/
2023-07-05T01:28:53
2023-07-17T23:38:10
2023-07-17T23:38:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xOJraD28kDlamFPDBBnO
Will Janja Garnbret win a sport climbing gold medal at the 2024 Olympics?
Resolves N/A if the sport climbing event doesn't happen, for whatever reason. If it's merely postponed, the closing date will be pushed back. If the event happens but she doesn't participate, that counts as NO. If she somehow wins in speed, that counts as YES too, sure.
2023-07-05T00:59:26
2024-08-10T05:32:01
2024-08-10T05:32:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ndyDQ8nn4EPnyZkCVgrx
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 5th than it closed on July 4th?
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Previous Close: $30,771.20 SIMILAR MARKET: (https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-close-higher-july-5th?r=SGF3cw)
2023-07-04T17:10:19
2023-07-05T16:00:00
2023-07-05T17:02:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-t2rdGGWXa1oJiAluQVGn
Will Meta's Threads have a censorship uproar within the first three months?
Meta has long been known to be ham-fisted with censorship on its platforms, preferring a stale "family-friendly" approach, even though a fundamental userbase of Instagram is the sex worker community. In contrast, Twitter has historically been a bastion for political dissidents, sex workers, and breaking news stories that sometimes come with highly uncomfortable footage. Will these needs of people leaving Twitter be filled by Threads? Will Meta have a strong policy against it from the outset? Or might Meta lure them in before closing the trap? How will users feel about Threads once these policies are known? Resolves YES if controversy, frustration, or outrage about Thread's content policies spawns article(s) in any major English-language publication (NYT, BBC, AP, etc.) within three months, except Opinion section stuff. Otherwise resolves NO after close.
2023-07-04T12:01:51
2023-10-05T14:09:38
2023-10-05T14:09:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JxcpJTGSurSdSMlFxYhL
Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-07-04T10:15:06
2024-12-31T23:29:00
2025-01-01T15:26:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5wDFYC81bam4GLBXx3RA
Will the downtown San Francisco IKEA open by 2023-08-25?
According to the San Francisco Standard on 2023-04-25, the IKEA in downtown San Francisco was set to open "in the next couple of months". This market will resolve to YES if a customer can buy products from an open IKEA store at the planned location on Market Street by 2023-08-25.
2023-07-04T09:54:33
2023-08-25T01:32:55
2023-08-25T01:32:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XoNuTC1fDqHOXB9oMoGE
Will USD/RUB exchange rate stay higher than 100 for at least one week in 2023?
This question resolves YES if, according to Yahoo Finance, USD/RUB pair stays higher than 100 (at close) for at least 7 consecutive days in 2023. I will use the "Close" column of the source table to resolve the question. Author betting policy I will bet on this market. UPD (for clarity). For days without a record I will use the last recorded close price. So if the price is 105 from Monday to Friday, and there are no records for subsequent Saturday and Sunday, the resolution will be YES.
2023-07-04T08:55:18
2023-12-25T23:41:36
2023-12-25T23:41:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eCH7Vo1fCQyY9vuOnZVg
Will the "Last Night On Destiny's" YouTube channel hit 119K subscribers in July?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCLOPC6bOBuiSBAJ16JXLAHg (https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-0714b5f9dcc6?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)
2023-07-04T08:24:38
2023-07-31T20:37:03
2023-07-31T20:37:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-onh02TBXAjF6HKIDvlzi
Will the "Last Night On Destiny's" YouTube channel hit 118K subscribers in July?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCLOPC6bOBuiSBAJ16JXLAHg (https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-d1e52d7e64e2?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)
2023-07-04T08:10:34
2023-07-28T19:57:14
2023-07-28T19:57:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6GB0bHLjWVzVPvUsApmE
Will the "Last Night On Destiny's" YouTube channel hit 120K subscribers in July?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCLOPC6bOBuiSBAJ16JXLAHg (https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-0714b5f9dcc6?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-d1e52d7e64e2?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)
2023-07-04T08:08:40
2023-07-31T20:58:03
2023-07-31T20:58:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EzU8PWUsv6GrIOfA60t9
Tesla Cybertruck will be in the top 25 selling car models for 2024
e.g. will appear on a list like this of top selling public cars, trucks, and SUVs covering the year 2024: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g39628015/best-selling-cars-2022/
2023-07-04T07:02:09
2025-01-15T11:29:40
2025-01-15T11:29:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nDtGA685msIDKGM6xqlk
Will Donald Trump post on Threads in 2023?
Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, is releasing a new app called Threads that is set to take on Twitter for real-time digital conversations. The first releases are scheduled for July 5th, 2023. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump posts on Threads at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, only posts from confirmed Trump's account count for this market. Will Donald Trump tweet in 2023? (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2023)
2023-07-04T05:14:28
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T04:20:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jjQEytHjgyHlf4WCTvd4
Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023?
Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4)
2023-07-04T00:33:58
2023-10-31T15:13:34
2023-10-31T15:13:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gj6AGD9HkWo3I8VNlzAO
Will USD/RUB exchange rate reach an all-time high before the end of 2024?
This question resolves YES if, according to Yahoo Finance, USD/RUB pair trades higher than 154.7150 (a current all-time high, reached on March 7, 2022) on any day of 2023 or 2024. I will use the "High" column of the source table to resolve the question. Author betting policy I will bet on this market.
2023-07-03T23:05:51
2024-12-31T13:59:00
2025-01-01T00:05:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cEpP16zgZfIwuq06IbRa
Will Coke Zero Sugar be discontinued by 2023?
More of my Markets: Will I keep my streak today? By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population? Will humans ever colonize Mars? Will Joe Biden win the 2024 presidential election? Will we be able to develop fusion power that is commercially viable by 2037? Will a Starship orbital flight attempt, occur in August 2023? Will we be able to cure cancer in the next 10 years? Will Terraform Industries start selling its products in 2024? Will the James Webb Space Telescope make any new discoveries in the next 12 months? True or False? Electrons are smaller than atoms. Will the Colorado Avalanche repeat as Stanley Cup champions in 2024? Will there be a new variant of COVID-19 that is more transmissible or deadly?
2023-07-03T23:04:14
2024-01-01T22:58:47
2024-01-01T22:58:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Zl9OwDa9BQZL0LjccrDQ
Will more Americans be shot on July 4, 2023 than July 4, 2022?
This market resolves YES if more than 790 people are reported as dead or wounded by the Gun Violence Archive. According to CBS (using the Gun Violence Archive Data), 220 people were shot and 570 people were injured. This market resolves NO if at most 790 are reported as dead or wounded by the Gun Violence Archive.
2023-07-03T22:50:56
2023-07-04T23:59:00
2023-07-05T06:08:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-k5bOcHhdEq71Oup2hU4l
Will Meta's Threads have more than 100M monthly active users by the end of 2024?
Meta is launching a new app. It's called Threads. This market resolves to YES if by the end of 2024, it hits 100M MAUs (if they disclose DAUs, I'll consider the DAU/MAU ratio of the family of apps, it usually hovers around 67%) If Meta doesn't disclose that at any point, I'll rely on my judgement, using estimates of sell-side of investment banks like Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and others. In case of doubt, I may wait until Q4'2024 Meta Earnings calls at the begging of 2025 to conclude. Nonetheless, this market may require significant judgement and therefore I won't bet.
2023-07-03T20:04:55
2023-07-14T15:07:43
2023-07-14T15:07:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bC2UnVdPUVg34zuYBza7
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt, occur in August 2023?
Resolution criteria: More of my Markets: Will I keep my streak today? By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population? Will humans ever colonize Mars? Will Joe Biden win the 2024 presidential election? Will we be able to develop fusion power that is commercially viable by 2037? Will a Starship orbital flight attempt, occur in August 2023? Will we be able to cure cancer in the next 10 years? Will Terraform Industries start selling its products in 2024? Will the James Webb Space Telescope make any new discoveries in the next 12 months? True or False? Electrons are smaller than atoms. Will the Colorado Avalanche repeat as Stanley Cup champions in 2024? Will there be a new variant of COVID-19 that is more transmissible or deadly?
2023-07-03T19:42:18
2023-08-31T23:59:00
2023-09-09T14:33:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RLSsK7i1x4IniGpb6Noo
Will Ethereum Close Higher July 4th Than July 3rd?
ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC. Predictions close 1 minute prior. JUNE 3rd Close Value: $1,954.54 Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price SIMILAR MARKET (https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-ju-ac8a599315b0)
2023-07-03T18:25:59
2023-07-04T16:59:00
2023-07-04T17:02:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-454UNAg9S7oAjkIRdxnr
Will Starfield get a Metascore greater than 85?
If the PC version of Starfield has a metascore greater than 85 one week after launch, resolves to yes.
2023-07-03T18:07:02
2023-09-13T20:59:00
2023-09-13T21:48:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eZjwPatJPKK8Z1onH1bx
Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?
Resolves YES if Sergey Surovikin is demoted from his current rank of General of the Army, is dismissed from the Russian military, or dies, before October 1, 2023 (Moscow time). Otherwise NO. Update: there's recent news that Surovikin was removed as Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces. The above criteria are quite clear that being relieved of duties or having a change of post is not a qualifying criteria by itself, it must also comes with "demoted from his current rank of General of the Army" or "dismissed from the Russian military" to resolve YES. (To understand why the criteria are this way, consider what would have happened if he had ceased to be Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces because he was promoted to a different position, for example.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Surovikin In late June 2023, he was arrested, according to unconfirmed reports following alleged involvement with the Wagner Group rebellion,[9] and according to CNN was revealed to be a Wagner Group member.[10] Surovikin's daughter, in an alleged interview to a Russian Telegram channel, claimed to be in contact with her father and insisted that he had not been detained.[11] https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/29/europe/russia-surovikin-prigozhin-questions-intl/index.html Surovikin has been the subject of intense speculation over his role in the mutiny after the New York Times reported on Wednesday that the general “had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership.” The paper cited US officials who it said were briefed on US intelligence. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/30/europe/russian-general-sergey-surovikin-wagner-vip-intl-hnk/index.html Documents shared exclusively with CNN suggest that a top Russian military commander, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, was a secret VIP member of Wagner, the private military company that staged a brief rebellion exposing disunity among senior Russian military officials. [link preview]
2023-07-03T14:21:05
2023-09-30T20:59:00
2023-10-01T06:03:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PAF8uxotN8KqbVOyp283
Will Bitcoin drop below US$25,000 again before the end of the year?
Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below 25,000$ at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created July 3rd) https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ [link preview]
2023-07-03T14:00:09
2023-09-11T08:58:06
2023-09-11T08:58:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GtgvQ3aCW9URt6QUDNL2
Will AI wipe out humanity before Labor Day 2023?
If humanity is still around on September 4, 2023, then this market resolves to NO and we can celebrate this on Labor Day. Otherwise resolves to YES .
2023-07-03T08:39:02
2023-09-03T22:59:00
2023-09-04T05:57:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-G3Yl8ggiWvBNZV3ZhJVR
Will there be more than 84 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in July 2023?
The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org
2023-07-03T07:38:29
2023-08-01T00:00:21
2023-08-01T00:00:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4zDo2EW761hSAdcPaRh1
Will Joey Chestnut eat more than 70 hot dogs in the 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Nathan's Coney Island Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest YES - 71+ NO - 70 and under
2023-07-03T07:27:12
2023-07-04T12:26:35
2023-07-04T12:26:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9rvTgf0f4bRJN4LsWFOA
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by August 31?
Resolution Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address: Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO. For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control). Background Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and recent reporting shows Ukraine has driven back Russian forces in some areas around Bakhmut: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890 Resolution details Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the address specified above. Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates. See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of the following, in order of precedence: https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time. Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/
2023-07-03T06:55:56
2023-08-31T14:00:00
2023-08-31T14:33:47
no
MANIFOLD