id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-qHOrgc7V26cPSrfpZC8r | Will the BBC presenter accused of paying a teen for sexually explicit photos be named in the press within a week? | Non-tabloid, British press. Can be fully couched in "alleged" "accused" "presumably" kind of language, but there must be more or less a consensus that this is the person who is accused. | 2023-07-11T03:42:06 | 2023-07-12T13:24:11 | 2023-07-12T13:24:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UWgrnj0kjG9KwbAbUWc5 | Will Sergio Perez drive for Red Bull in the 2024 F1 Season? | Resolves positive if Sergio Perez is under contract for at least one race during the season. | 2023-07-11T01:32:22 | 2024-02-29T15:59:00 | 2024-03-02T04:13:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8txPIqLonHzjh1JWLqG6 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17767/luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023/
This question resolves as "Yes", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the missio... | 2023-07-10T22:12:44 | 2023-08-11T11:12:56 | 2023-08-11T11:12:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7h3HFtBwWkucPYgcbHpq | Will robo-taxis from Cruise and Waymo be permitted to operate 24/7 by 2023-08-10? | According to this article, a government approval has been delayed. If the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approves it by August 10, then this market resolves to yes. If it is delayed or voted down, then the market resolves to no.
https://sfstandard.com/2023/07/10/cruise-and-waymos-24-7-san-francisco-rob... | 2023-07-10T21:50:47 | 2023-08-10T23:59:00 | 2023-08-13T14:57:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-36hoUkrkyFA8L3wK2b18 | Will actors strike by the 13th? | Writers across the U.S. have been on strike since May 2, in a massive blow to the entertainment industry. Furthermore, actors and actresses (unionized as SAG-AFTRA) have also been considering a strike - despite contract negotiations originally having a deadline of June 30, they considered pushing it to July 7, and then... | 2023-07-10T20:49:55 | 2023-07-13T20:59:00 | 2023-07-13T21:17:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WhXwTTwzOQUPEcSu7bXD | Will Messi average 1 goal/game or more with Inter Miami? | In the 2023 season, will Messi average 1 goal/game or more with Inter Miami?
Question begins after Messi plays his first game, and applies to games he is not playing for (if any). The goal of this is to rate Messi's overall impact on the team. So if he's not playing, he's not having an 'on-field' impact. | 2023-07-10T18:40:32 | 2023-11-20T12:21:30 | 2023-11-20T12:21:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XfqpBjYERuErRIxc1pbN | Will Zelenskyy attend the 2024 NATO summit? | Will the Ukrainian president attend the summit in person? (Digital participation does not count.) | 2023-07-10T15:35:50 | 2024-08-18T09:48:40 | 2024-08-18T09:48:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7UIPl9CBMauAOwme6F8I | Will F-16s be announced to Turkey in 2023? | Turkey has been asking for F-16 jets for quite a while, but members of the US Congress have resisted.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/us/politics/us-turkey-f16s.html
Resolves based on credible media reporting regarding a deal between the Turkish and US government. Only requires an announcement in 2023, not necess... | 2023-07-10T15:10:24 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:05:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fGWx4HEBbIRSPb3qeRMm | Will Prigozhin be charged with corruption by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-10T08:31:34 | 2023-08-31T06:07:00 | 2023-08-31T06:07:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9KFWAlx03XYpta5XnFXe | Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant be destroyed this summer? | Shorter timeline than the other markets.
Apparently Russia has placed mines there, will they press the big red detonate button? Resolves YES even if it's unclear what caused the destruction.
https://kyivindependent.com/on-the-edge-of-disaster-what-could-really-happen-if-russia-destroys-the-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/... | 2023-07-10T01:22:40 | 2023-08-31T11:00:00 | 2023-08-31T11:06:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bDAHf8ZfDeWbD7wPC7o6 | Will total global corporate investment in AI in 2023 reach $300 billion, according to the Artificial Intelligence Index? | See the question and its resolution criteria on gjopen: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2728-will-total-global-corporate-investment-in-ai-in-2023-reach-or-exceed-300-billion-according-to-the-artificial-intelligence-index
Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has grown considerably in just the past decade, with s... | 2023-07-10T01:13:34 | 2024-04-15T02:47:57 | 2024-04-15T02:48:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C53d2hXHigYwqDu0iimx | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win more delegates in the GOP primary than Doug Burgum? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-10T00:11:59 | 2024-01-16T18:15:30 | 2024-01-16T18:15:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ckvCMQZ57FBZdSX0PiA2 | Will a size measurement contest happen between Zuckerberg and Musk happen in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-09T23:15:30 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:23:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ffKmjOKFccMK3RJwnrPd | Will Barbie gross 2x Oppenheimer domestically in July? | If there is sufficient interest I will open markets for other months and for international gross
Will be resolved using Box Office Mojo data | 2023-07-09T23:09:09 | 2023-08-01T00:00:00 | 2023-08-01T22:25:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iHKtelnXauJm6Ev9OCDc | Will the government of any country be involuntarily dissolved or overthrown before September 1? | The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government st... | 2023-07-09T22:33:03 | 2023-07-28T16:17:50 | 2023-07-28T16:17:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mG9K7zyX7IiMRHqITFYq | Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 1 week before mid 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-09T16:44:19 | 2023-10-12T15:49:45 | 2023-10-12T15:49:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z4k6Fp0dshmFgArG0JFT | Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) before the end of 2024? | Will we be able to synthesize basically any photo from a text description and sample images of people we want in the photo?
This is a duplicate of the following market, with everything except the timeframe remaining the same:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dreev/instant-deepfakes-of-anyone-within?r=R2FtYmxpbmdfR2FuZ... | 2023-07-09T12:28:46 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:22:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eZBxSTEd1g0V668OU7sg | Will a whistleblower disclose the location of the alleged untransportable UFO during a public Congress hearing? | According to a tweet by @PostDisclosure, journalist Ross Coulthart claims to know the exact location of an alleged UFO that is reportedly too heavy to transport. The tweet suggests that this information will come out "some day" and calls for Congress to investigate. This prediction market aims to determine whether a wh... | 2023-07-09T02:39:58 | 2024-08-31T19:59:00 | 2024-09-01T04:49:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AiFbsyUauRem2NyZGyJI | Will Dricus du Plessis beat Israel Adesanya? | If Dricus du Plessis wins the fight, this market will resolve to YES.
If Israel Adesanya wins, or the fight results in a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If it is called a No Contest on the night, or if a fight between the two does not occur before either of them retires, this market will resolve N/A. | 2023-07-09T00:27:22 | 2024-08-18T06:36:29 | 2024-08-18T06:36:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kkADUUNcbI4Wi2bpQQsW | Will destiny's youtube channel hit 693k subscribers in July? | Going by his socialblade.
@/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6
@/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-67504f80b5ab
@/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-cf43dfc20933
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-996ed1f443cb | 2023-07-08T22:52:36 | 2023-07-31T21:00:00 | 2023-07-31T23:09:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCwSGwS9w15pJ1s1O85y | Will the Finnish government collapse this year? | The most recent round of Finnish parliamentary elections were held on April 2nd, 2023. The liberal-conservative party Kansallinen Kokoomus won the election with 20.8% of the national popular vote, while right-wing populist Finns party acheived a record 20.1%, and previous Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s center-left party ... | 2023-07-08T20:34:12 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T02:39:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gu3nVaGQnMvoXNimPlff | Will the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander successfully land on the moon? | https://www.space.com/india-stacks-chandrayaan-3-moon-mission-rocket-photos
[link preview]Has to successfully land on the moon.
'success' being defined as it lands, and is still able to send back telemetry. If there is radio silence after the scheduled landing period, its considered a 'failure' | 2023-07-08T18:26:00 | 2023-08-23T06:26:51 | 2023-08-23T06:26:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ttPUowpQ9G1RCxj5NFyq | Will Team Fortress 2 receive a substantive update with new content by the end of 2023? | The market resolves YES if Team Fortress 2 receives one or more updates with new non-cosmetic content - new weapons, new map types/game modes, a new merc - by the end of 2023. It resolves NO if Gaben continues to operate on Valve Time.
Clarification: just as merely adopting existing community maps wouldn't count for t... | 2023-07-08T17:29:14 | 2023-12-31T14:22:03 | 2023-12-31T14:22:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qwzFPgQSGRGQ9WvVpdtS | Will the USD/RUB exchange rate hit an all-time high in 2023? | The current USD/RUB record exchange rate was 134.00 Rubles per US Dollar, recorded on March 11th, 2022. Will the exchange rate exceed this high at any point in 2023?
Resolves YES if Google Finance displays a number greater than 134 for the USD/RUB exchange rate on the monthly graph at any point in 2023. | 2023-07-08T14:25:35 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T02:39:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-552u4weCKCAPKRCFwgAC | Will the USD/RUB exchange rate exceed 100 for at least 1 month in 2023? | In the face of international sanctions, Russia has been attempting to keep the USD/RUB exchange rate down through monetary policy. The exchange rate peaked at 134 on March 11th, 2022, but fell to around ~60 for the latter half of 2022. Throughout 2023, it has been steadily rising.
Will the USD/RUB exchange rate excee... | 2023-07-08T14:20:08 | 2023-12-10T13:56:10 | 2023-12-10T13:56:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j | Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023? | Last week the WSJ reported he "microdoses ketamine for depression and takes larger doses at parties". Such a revelation would typically result in the loss of an individual's security clearance. He has previously been investigated for using marijuana and did not lose his clearance. Ketamine, however, is taken much more ... | 2023-07-08T11:24:36 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:19:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dl4ei5al9SNrqXe2vayb | Will Michael Lewis be charged with a crime related to SBF and FTX? | Before 2025 | 2023-07-08T10:27:20 | 2025-01-24T13:45:56 | 2025-01-24T13:45:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qnB30tUVftcsxnNu4YIs | Will Putin visit Turkey in August? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-08T08:51:55 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-08-31T22:22:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7GfbxKAYyMjZZqLkv2R5 | Will Putin visit Turkey in August 2023? | At a press conference on July 8, Erdogan claimed Putin was coming for a visit to Turkey in August 2023. Will this visit take place as claimed? | 2023-07-08T02:50:11 | 2023-08-31T15:00:00 | 2023-08-31T22:19:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fMXkwOiOvg2jhtGwLroN | Will mainstream news report that Prigozhin is alive and free by end of July? | Any news coming from any one of:
• The New York Times
• The Wall Street Journal
• The Washington Post
• ABC
• CNN
• Fox
That reports evidence that Prigozhin is not captured/imprisoned/dead will resolve yes.
Things that are insufficient to resolve yes:
• Speculation about motives of Prigozhin
• Reports of wher... | 2023-07-07T22:38:10 | 2023-07-23T14:42:48 | 2023-07-23T14:43:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yYCU0A8QczUxXGLpXMV1 | Will Lex Fridman really interview Benjamin Netanyahu? | Podcast episode featuring Benjamin Netanyahu must be posted before market close.
https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1677511251310567424
[image] | 2023-07-07T21:40:18 | 2023-07-12T08:59:10 | 2023-07-12T08:59:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-romicmcjVX0M4q4UiQma | Will someone hack the Las Vegas Sphere by the end of 2023? | The Sphere is a spherical music and entertainment arena in Paradise, Nevada, near the Las Vegas Strip and east of the Venetian Resort.
Will someone hack The Sphere to display any image/video not approved by Sphere Entertainment Co and/or its owners by the end of 2023? | 2023-07-07T18:09:08 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-02T00:38:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-49ZMJruLKhdyfaT0MnI2 | Will at least 5,000 Wagner soldiers relocate to Belarus during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-07T16:17:37 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:33:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Rf1DcD4kQDRTV37lP8C | Will Superalignment succeed, according to Eliezer Yudkowsky? | If @EliezerYudkowsky believes Superalignment has succeeded in the goal of "solv[ing] the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years [i.e. by July 5th, 2027]", this market will resolve YES. If the team dissolves, reorganizes, or pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solu... | 2023-07-07T16:07:29 | 2024-05-19T21:22:42 | 2024-05-19T21:22:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kP2ejsTEg3QT2PigCesV | Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-07T12:53:42 | 2024-01-09T08:25:29 | 2024-01-09T08:25:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zZHmgH0omgzSs17RZ5C2 | Ukraine will be given/sold 20 or more F16s before 2024 | They must have arrived in Ukraine. They do not need to have been flown yet. | 2023-07-07T11:54:41 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:35:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p5qsivAKqQG34KqakRE9 | Will July 6th be the hottest day for a week (until Jul 12 2023)? | July 6th Obs Temp was 17.23°C. Includes Jul 7 - Jul 12
Resolves NO if a day has a temperature above 17.23°C according to https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/ | 2023-07-07T11:03:46 | 2023-07-13T12:43:43 | 2023-07-13T12:43:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s86H6lTC5uDdRbqs1098 | Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on September 14, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-07T11:00:04 | 2023-09-28T16:55:19 | 2023-09-28T16:55:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fugkpTzZUhP4q1sBRBby | Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on August 14, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-07T10:59:39 | 2023-08-14T06:47:36 | 2023-08-14T06:47:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-B8s1S29nkffVNSJxF9pk | Will threads.net be in the top 50 most visited websites at the end of 2023? | Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites
threads.net is not in the top 50 as of market creation. Similarweb, the website that Wikipedia sources their list from, lists it as #2,875,528 globally.
Resolves based on whatever data is the... | 2023-07-07T10:29:50 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:26:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aQXq1GEHiSWvJFa4BTTL | Will Dortmund finally win the 2023-2024 Bundesliga season? | Resolves to YES if Dortmund places 1st at the end of the season in the 2023-2024 Bundesliga, or is mathematically guaranteed to win | 2023-07-07T08:37:53 | 2024-05-13T14:26:13 | 2024-05-13T14:26:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l2gTEJbw8aLiOfPlsVuv | Will Bayern Munich win the 2023-2024 Bundesliga... again? | Or will it be another team this year?
Bayern -> YES resolution
Another team -> NO resolution | 2023-07-07T08:36:47 | 2024-05-01T09:44:16 | 2024-05-01T09:44:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9lQm0MUigVTHg0FSIaHh | Will any member of Joe Biden's family be indicted for bribery and payoffs from foreign governments by 12/31/2024? | https://youtu.be/J-9a5L_MyKM
[link preview]I corrected Biden family to mean any member of Joe Biden's family and others listed here. James Comer, House Oversight Committe Chairman identified nine family members receiving foreign income “Joe Biden’s son [Hunter], Joe Biden’s brother [James], Joe Biden’s brother’s wife... | 2023-07-07T07:29:04 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:53:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YfVnmuvvuKJ1YMmJVbqw | Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 14th than it closed on July 13th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-07-07T02:18:45 | 2023-07-14T11:00:00 | 2023-07-14T13:05:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IxzLd4mb7ioHc0ViO30j | Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 13th than it closed on July 12th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-07-07T02:18:25 | 2023-07-13T11:00:00 | 2023-07-13T13:23:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MuBoAR0FocmlwDwa53Sp | Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 11th than it closed on July 10th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-07-07T02:17:45 | 2023-07-11T11:00:00 | 2023-07-11T13:31:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WmyFNvndpd6cMd5izJcI | Will July 6th be the hottest day in Jul 2023? | July 6th Obs Temp was 17.233°C
Resolves NO if a day has a temperature above 17.233°C according to https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/ | 2023-07-06T22:09:43 | 2023-07-31T22:35:44 | 2023-07-31T22:35:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NaAwOiflmqc0Eqs9XBci | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 7th than it closed on July 6th? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $29,899.30
SIMILAR MARKET:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-jul-bbdc151748f3?r=SGF3c... | 2023-07-06T17:33:50 | 2023-07-07T16:00:00 | 2023-07-07T17:30:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q8wsxNL2Ny0lYmZuziNj | Will xQc gamble on Stake on his Kick stream before September | Resolves YES if someone posts a clip/screenshot/vod, recorded after the creation of this market and before September 2023 (GMT), of xQc gambling on Stake while livestreaming on Kick.com
https://kick.com/xqc
[markets] | 2023-07-06T14:04:48 | 2023-08-15T17:59:37 | 2023-08-15T17:59:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xhrzdcLBNieuN7DqPbhC | Will xQc gamble on Stake on his Kick stream before August | Resolves YES if someone posts a clip/screenshot/vod, recorded after the creation of this market and before August 2023 (GMT), of xQc gambling on Stake while livestreaming on Kick.com
https://kick.com/xqc
[markets] | 2023-07-06T14:03:25 | 2023-07-31T21:07:50 | 2023-07-31T21:07:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UOGh6AVoGeyWTfPBsyF0 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win more delegates than Nikki Haley in the GOP Primaries? | Resolves YES if Ramaswamy has earned more delegate votes at the start of the 2024 GOP convention. | 2023-07-06T08:48:08 | 2024-01-26T12:20:39 | 2024-01-26T12:20:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IFRETFGbzZjnOzKGyf51 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 7th July than it closed on 6th July? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 7th July than it did on Thursday 6th July?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are also some markets on what the FTSE 100 will do in the month of July:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-79f76b84a731
@/SimonGrayson/will-th... | 2023-07-06T07:52:42 | 2023-07-07T08:30:00 | 2023-07-07T09:20:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rb4owECEmU0O4mCUtDdq | Will Tottenham sell Harry Kane by the end of August 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-06T04:49:24 | 2023-08-18T14:42:03 | 2023-08-18T14:42:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dMM2jwwV6RzMjn1jl8E7 | Will Threads (Meta’s Twitter alternative) have a feature similar to Twitter Spaces by the end of 2023? | Twitter Spaces are audio chatrooms in which multiple people are able to speak at once.
This market will resolve YES if Threads has a feature that fulfils the above criteria or is sufficiently similar. If no such feature exists by 23:59 (GMT) December 31st 2023 then this market will resolve NO. If threads, for whateve... | 2023-07-06T03:46:34 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:09:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ICVwCJR1TIQ83mmEKhZm | Will Tony Ferguson beat Bobby Green at UFC 291? | Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green are scheduled to fight on July 29th, 2023 at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City, Utah.
If Tony Ferguson wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Bobby Green wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Conte... | 2023-07-06T02:44:32 | 2023-07-29T20:02:56 | 2023-07-29T20:02:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WIc4iI3Ti9QVfLC2Gyu2 | Will Meta's Threads successfully integrate with the Fediverse network by the end of 2023? | Background:
Threads, an online social media and networking service, is owned by the American company Meta Platforms. This platform is designed to work in tandem with Instagram, requiring users to have an Instagram account to sign up and maintain the same handle. Threads, which allows users to post text and images, rep... | 2023-07-06T01:35:52 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-03T01:43:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X3ZtTHgGxQjK9zpf0SKE | Will Threads be available in the EU by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-06T00:23:46 | 2023-12-15T06:21:16 | 2023-12-15T06:21:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1lcluzbQsnbfBHukgMHQ | Will Threads be available in the EU by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-06T00:22:35 | 2023-12-14T06:03:44 | 2023-12-14T06:03:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rOuEJxbLrSHaIrqeDRnj | Will Elon Musk post on Instagram Threads in 2023? | Will an account verified to be Elon Musk (either by himself elsewhere or Meta) post or reply on the new Meta threads app this year? | 2023-07-05T23:43:25 | 2024-01-01T01:22:37 | 2024-01-01T01:22:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TS1fbAIqPf252FD7CDK4 | Will Ilya Sutskever still be leading Superalignment in 4 years? | Ilya Sutskever (cofounder and Chief Scientist of OpenAI) has made this his core research focus, and will be co-leading the team with Jan Leike (Head of Alignment).
Source
Resolves NO if a reputable source says that Ilya Sutskever is no longer leading Superalignment. | 2023-07-05T22:20:07 | 2024-07-25T08:26:00 | 2024-07-25T08:26:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FmPkK3R3Sc4YOYIsIejQ | Will the record for hottest day be broken again in 2023? | July 3-4th were apparently sizzlers. | 2023-07-05T22:06:57 | 2023-07-07T12:50:49 | 2023-07-07T12:50:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c9tfFrEMxH05KhNbNuN9 | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-05T22:05:00 | 2025-01-11T01:38:44 | 2025-01-11T01:38:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c6FBVlb22ahlemC1amtr | Will No Labels run a third-party candidate for president in 2024? | The political group No Labels has announced plans for creating a third party in the American political scene, aimed at independent voters. They have said that they will decide whether or not to nominate a ticket after the "Super Tuesday" primaries in March 2024. Will they do so?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no... | 2023-07-05T20:49:21 | 2024-04-05T06:27:30 | 2024-04-05T06:27:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tqzCfKSuSyNrqceeskEO | Will Elon Musk post a Thread by the end of August 2023? | If Elon Musk posts a Thread, this market resolves to YES. I may bet.
Related markets
[markets] | 2023-07-05T19:23:13 | 2023-08-31T19:59:00 | 2023-09-03T10:24:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EcCr1BsoPh08jDWX4PML | Will the OpenAI superalignment team believe that their goal has been achieved after 4 years? | https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment
[link preview] | 2023-07-05T17:05:35 | 2024-06-17T16:13:09 | 2024-06-17T16:13:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BFqPJmRdeozDwWysbQoP | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 6th than it closed on July 5th? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $30,507.30
SIMILAR MARKET:
| 2023-07-05T17:03:16 | 2023-07-06T16:00:00 | 2023-07-06T17:32:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kLrMQOUp4LrElh8WDmnY | Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027? | A team at OpenAI is working to solve the alignment problem. Short of asking whether they will succeed altogether, this question gauges whether it will be publicly known before Jan 1, 2027 that OpenAI has made a significant breakthrough in the alignment problem. The technical details of the breakthrough do not need to b... | 2023-07-05T12:08:13 | 2024-05-17T11:30:56 | 2024-05-17T11:30:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZPW9teaCxEwJUSjnSNjW | Will Jai Hindley win the 2023 Tour de France? | https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page | 2023-07-05T09:36:05 | 2023-07-23T10:45:41 | 2023-07-23T10:45:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5GcqYIKZyPowq1qOdQpq | Will an Australian rider finish on the podium of the 2023 Tour de France? | General classification (GC), men.
First, second or third place. | 2023-07-05T09:19:13 | 2023-07-23T11:06:25 | 2023-07-23T11:06:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-T2dkiyHpOldFlwyXpNuP | Will Biden's name appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot? | https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/05/magazine/democratic-national-committee-2024.html
"'the question only is whether or not the president is going to put his name on the ballot. They’re trying to come after New Hampshire, but it’s not going to be successful. So why go through all that pain?'"
related markets:
@/MattP/... | 2023-07-05T08:02:21 | 2023-11-14T18:27:06 | 2023-11-14T18:27:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-REXW5SFXhK8cCtPlMK96 | Will Destiny talk to Aella again in July? | Will resolve to YES if destiny and aella talk on video or irl between now and market close.
Text conversations don't count. | 2023-07-05T07:30:22 | 2023-07-31T21:00:00 | 2023-08-01T11:43:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6E5ttKLVMfvgQoSuGx7o | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-05T07:03:46 | 2024-07-21T16:34:10 | 2024-07-21T16:34:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KRI3Iv2lWup4wB5XulEt | Will UK inflation be above 4.0% at the end of 2023? | Resolves based on the UK 12 month headline consumer price inflation figure, rounded to one decimal place, for the month of December 2023, as expected to be published by the Office for National Statistics on 17 January 2024 07:00 local time. 4.1% or above = YES. 4.0% or below = NO. | 2023-07-05T04:56:40 | 2024-01-16T23:59:36 | 2024-01-16T23:59:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ie4qayS0tiYdniebPYvG | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16003/google-search-with-llm-responses/ | 2023-07-05T02:02:44 | 2023-07-31T13:59:00 | 2023-08-03T14:58:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0wSHIZtHdj85ty7SKil9 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17554/black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023/ | 2023-07-05T01:28:53 | 2023-07-17T23:38:10 | 2023-07-17T23:38:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xOJraD28kDlamFPDBBnO | Will Janja Garnbret win a sport climbing gold medal at the 2024 Olympics? | Resolves N/A if the sport climbing event doesn't happen, for whatever reason. If it's merely postponed, the closing date will be pushed back.
If the event happens but she doesn't participate, that counts as NO.
If she somehow wins in speed, that counts as YES too, sure. | 2023-07-05T00:59:26 | 2024-08-10T05:32:01 | 2024-08-10T05:32:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ndyDQ8nn4EPnyZkCVgrx | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 5th than it closed on July 4th? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $30,771.20
SIMILAR MARKET:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-close-higher-july-5th?r=SGF3cw) | 2023-07-04T17:10:19 | 2023-07-05T16:00:00 | 2023-07-05T17:02:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t2rdGGWXa1oJiAluQVGn | Will Meta's Threads have a censorship uproar within the first three months? | Meta has long been known to be ham-fisted with censorship on its platforms, preferring a stale "family-friendly" approach, even though a fundamental userbase of Instagram is the sex worker community. In contrast, Twitter has historically been a bastion for political dissidents, sex workers, and breaking news stories th... | 2023-07-04T12:01:51 | 2023-10-05T14:09:38 | 2023-10-05T14:09:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JxcpJTGSurSdSMlFxYhL | Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-07-04T10:15:06 | 2024-12-31T23:29:00 | 2025-01-01T15:26:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5wDFYC81bam4GLBXx3RA | Will the downtown San Francisco IKEA open by 2023-08-25? | According to the San Francisco Standard on 2023-04-25, the IKEA in downtown San Francisco was set to open "in the next couple of months". This market will resolve to YES if a customer can buy products from an open IKEA store at the planned location on Market Street by 2023-08-25.
| 2023-07-04T09:54:33 | 2023-08-25T01:32:55 | 2023-08-25T01:32:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XoNuTC1fDqHOXB9oMoGE | Will USD/RUB exchange rate stay higher than 100 for at least one week in 2023? | This question resolves YES if, according to Yahoo Finance, USD/RUB pair stays higher than 100 (at close) for at least 7 consecutive days in 2023. I will use the "Close" column of the source table to resolve the question.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market.
UPD (for clarity). For days without a record I ... | 2023-07-04T08:55:18 | 2023-12-25T23:41:36 | 2023-12-25T23:41:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eCH7Vo1fCQyY9vuOnZVg | Will the "Last Night On Destiny's" YouTube channel hit 119K subscribers in July? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCLOPC6bOBuiSBAJ16JXLAHg
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-0714b5f9dcc6?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c) | 2023-07-04T08:24:38 | 2023-07-31T20:37:03 | 2023-07-31T20:37:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-onh02TBXAjF6HKIDvlzi | Will the "Last Night On Destiny's" YouTube channel hit 118K subscribers in July? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCLOPC6bOBuiSBAJ16JXLAHg
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-d1e52d7e64e2?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c) | 2023-07-04T08:10:34 | 2023-07-28T19:57:14 | 2023-07-28T19:57:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6GB0bHLjWVzVPvUsApmE | Will the "Last Night On Destiny's" YouTube channel hit 120K subscribers in July? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCLOPC6bOBuiSBAJ16JXLAHg
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-0714b5f9dcc6?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakyElbow/will-the-last-night-on-destinys-you-d1e52d7e64e2?r=U25lYWt5RWxib3c) | 2023-07-04T08:08:40 | 2023-07-31T20:58:03 | 2023-07-31T20:58:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EzU8PWUsv6GrIOfA60t9 | Tesla Cybertruck will be in the top 25 selling car models for 2024 | e.g. will appear on a list like this of top selling public cars, trucks, and SUVs covering the year 2024: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g39628015/best-selling-cars-2022/ | 2023-07-04T07:02:09 | 2025-01-15T11:29:40 | 2025-01-15T11:29:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nDtGA685msIDKGM6xqlk | Will Donald Trump post on Threads in 2023? | Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, is releasing a new app called Threads that is set to take on Twitter for real-time digital conversations. The first releases are scheduled for July 5th, 2023.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump posts on Threads at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, t... | 2023-07-04T05:14:28 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T04:20:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jjQEytHjgyHlf4WCTvd4 | Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of October 2023? | Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happene... | 2023-07-04T00:33:58 | 2023-10-31T15:13:34 | 2023-10-31T15:13:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gj6AGD9HkWo3I8VNlzAO | Will USD/RUB exchange rate reach an all-time high before the end of 2024? | This question resolves YES if, according to Yahoo Finance, USD/RUB pair trades higher than 154.7150 (a current all-time high, reached on March 7, 2022) on any day of 2023 or 2024. I will use the "High" column of the source table to resolve the question.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market. | 2023-07-03T23:05:51 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:05:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cEpP16zgZfIwuq06IbRa | Will Coke Zero Sugar be discontinued by 2023? | More of my Markets:
Will I keep my streak today?
By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population?
Will humans ever colonize Mars?
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 presidential election?
Will we be able to develop fusion power that is commercially viable by 2037?
Will a Starship orbital flight attemp... | 2023-07-03T23:04:14 | 2024-01-01T22:58:47 | 2024-01-01T22:58:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zl9OwDa9BQZL0LjccrDQ | Will more Americans be shot on July 4, 2023 than July 4, 2022? | This market resolves YES if more than 790 people are reported as dead or wounded by the Gun Violence Archive. According to CBS (using the Gun Violence Archive Data), 220 people were shot and 570 people were injured. This market resolves NO if at most 790 are reported as dead or wounded by the Gun Violence Archive. | 2023-07-03T22:50:56 | 2023-07-04T23:59:00 | 2023-07-05T06:08:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k5bOcHhdEq71Oup2hU4l | Will Meta's Threads have more than 100M monthly active users by the end of 2024? | Meta is launching a new app. It's called Threads.
This market resolves to YES if by the end of 2024, it hits 100M MAUs (if they disclose DAUs, I'll consider the DAU/MAU ratio of the family of apps, it usually hovers around 67%)
If Meta doesn't disclose that at any point, I'll rely on my judgement, using estimates of ... | 2023-07-03T20:04:55 | 2023-07-14T15:07:43 | 2023-07-14T15:07:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bC2UnVdPUVg34zuYBza7 | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt, occur in August 2023? | Resolution criteria:
More of my Markets:
Will I keep my streak today?
By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population?
Will humans ever colonize Mars?
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 presidential election?
Will we be able to develop fusion power that is commercially viable by 2037?
Will a Starship... | 2023-07-03T19:42:18 | 2023-08-31T23:59:00 | 2023-09-09T14:33:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RLSsK7i1x4IniGpb6Noo | Will Ethereum Close Higher July 4th Than July 3rd? | ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.
Predictions close 1 minute prior.
JUNE 3rd Close Value: $1,954.54
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Re... | 2023-07-03T18:25:59 | 2023-07-04T16:59:00 | 2023-07-04T17:02:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-454UNAg9S7oAjkIRdxnr | Will Starfield get a Metascore greater than 85? | If the PC version of Starfield has a metascore greater than 85 one week after launch, resolves to yes. | 2023-07-03T18:07:02 | 2023-09-13T20:59:00 | 2023-09-13T21:48:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eZjwPatJPKK8Z1onH1bx | Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October? | Resolves YES if Sergey Surovikin is demoted from his current rank of General of the Army, is dismissed from the Russian military, or dies, before October 1, 2023 (Moscow time). Otherwise NO.
Update: there's recent news that Surovikin was removed as Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces. The above criteria are qui... | 2023-07-03T14:21:05 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T06:03:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PAF8uxotN8KqbVOyp283 | Will Bitcoin drop below US$25,000 again before the end of the year? | Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below 25,000$ at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created July 3rd)
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
[link preview] | 2023-07-03T14:00:09 | 2023-09-11T08:58:06 | 2023-09-11T08:58:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GtgvQ3aCW9URt6QUDNL2 | Will AI wipe out humanity before Labor Day 2023? | If humanity is still around on September 4, 2023, then this market resolves to NO and we can celebrate this on Labor Day. Otherwise resolves to YES . | 2023-07-03T08:39:02 | 2023-09-03T22:59:00 | 2023-09-04T05:57:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G3Yl8ggiWvBNZV3ZhJVR | Will there be more than 84 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in July 2023? | The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org
| 2023-07-03T07:38:29 | 2023-08-01T00:00:21 | 2023-08-01T00:00:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4zDo2EW761hSAdcPaRh1 | Will Joey Chestnut eat more than 70 hot dogs in the 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? | Nathan's Coney Island Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest
YES - 71+
NO - 70 and under
| 2023-07-03T07:27:12 | 2023-07-04T12:26:35 | 2023-07-04T12:26:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9rvTgf0f4bRJN4LsWFOA | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by August 31? | Resolution
Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address:
Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500
according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO.
... | 2023-07-03T06:55:56 | 2023-08-31T14:00:00 | 2023-08-31T14:33:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
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