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collingray
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forecasting

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mani-usyq5ooX4HB2jnLeEBQJ
Will Ukraine retake western Bakhmut by August 1?
Resolution Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO. For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control). Resolution details Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the coordinates specified above. Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the source of truth will be the date of the map updates on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates. See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of the following, in order of precedence: https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time. [link preview][link preview][link preview][link preview]
2023-07-03T06:55:23
2023-08-01T20:59:00
2023-08-02T07:32:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jUAiahY5EgpJ3yGFeiH3
Will the S&P 500 increase in Q3 2023?
Will the S&P 500 increase from open on 2023-07-03 (4449.45) to close on 2023-09-29 (4288.05)? S&P 500 close level from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023 3955.00, 3839.50, 4109.31, 4450.38, 4288.05 https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
2023-07-03T05:35:12
2023-09-29T17:00:00
2023-09-30T01:17:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0q4IWdPBWOOFNKHTjdxH
Will 80% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Monday 17th July
Three weeks ago on 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit. We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up - we originally thought that this might happen within a few days but the rate of reopening slowed down futher and further and it was eventually hit on 3rd July. @/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida @/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33 @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833 @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1 How much longer will it take to hit 80%? This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2207/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 25%. If this figure ticks below 20%, the market resolves to YES. The deadline is Monday 17th July at 21:00 UK time (the closing time of the market). The next iteration of the market (with another three weeks to hit the magic number) is below: (https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-ac21eed14be6)Resolution notes: If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
2023-07-03T04:58:48
2023-07-17T13:00:00
2023-07-17T13:25:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4VSuDyRrVWEY8jUvYIOa
Will the MLB World Series winner in 2023 be among the lower half of teams in terms of projected team payroll?
Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/04/06/mlb-team-payrolls-2023-highest-lowest-mets/11612107002/ [link preview]Resolves YES if the team that wins the World Series this year is ranked 16-30 in team payroll according to this list that was published in April.
2023-07-03T04:20:36
2023-11-04T05:31:01
2023-11-04T05:31:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ON6NoRcovUKdotpGJldY
Will the S&P 500 increase in July 2023?
Will the S&P 500 increase from open on 2023-07-03 (4449.45) to close on 2023-07-31 (4588.96)? See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-by-55-or-m @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level January 4076.60 February 3970.15 March 4109.31 April 4169.48 May 4179.83 June 4450.38 https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
2023-07-03T03:49:15
2023-07-31T14:32:10
2023-07-31T14:32:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1K1AqYppjRwnkO79nJJE
Will destiny's youtube channel hit 691k subscribers in July?
Going by his social blade stats. @/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6 @/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-67504f80b5ab @/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-cf43dfc20933 @/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-996ed1f443cb
2023-07-03T03:24:52
2023-07-31T21:00:00
2023-07-31T23:07:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XqBFpp5UolJ7eKv2RHQ6
2023: Will Biden's approval rating hit its all-time low (37.6%)?
This market will resolve to YES, if at any point of 2023, the Approval Rating for Joe Biden falls below 37.6% [image] resolution: 538, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ [link preview]This market will resolve to the bold line as indicated at the 538 chart. In case of a tie, detailed data to calculate averages will be used to resolve. Please note, there is a second very similar market that uses 37.5% as the line. (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2023-will-biden-approval-ratings-hi) And here is the market for 2024: (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-will-bidens-approval-rating-hi)
2023-07-03T02:13:02
2023-12-21T06:00:34
2023-12-21T06:00:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RfrEVyGqwHvtmGsItOQX
Will Barbie gross more than 1.5x of Oppenheimer in their opening weekend?
Will use domestic stats from boxoffice mojo
2023-07-02T23:52:24
2023-07-24T15:20:50
2023-07-24T15:20:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OoxiLgUc3MbxAH5kn4Zp
Will at least 3 US presidential debates occur in the 2024 election
Will at least 3 general election presidential debates occur in the 2024 election? To resolve yes candidates of both Republican and Democratic parties must participate in each debate Debates between vice presidential candidates do not count Current count: 2
2023-07-02T20:34:31
2024-11-06T20:40:49
2024-11-06T20:40:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KqNxyMngW0WeJwnEZgxZ
Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 3rd than it closed on July 2nd?
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Previous Close: 30,613.50 [link preview]
2023-07-02T17:17:56
2023-07-03T16:00:00
2023-07-03T17:01:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-oKKmReYUAF8HzT4rdpl8
Will Greta Gerwig's Barbie be rated at least 7.0 in IMDB at the end of 2023?
Closes by the end of 2023 at Yes if Barbie is rated 7.0 or above, and at No if not IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268
2023-07-02T16:58:21
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4GrDPli8sbHRlLLlMLYE
Will Apple stock price hit $200 by the end of July?
Apple Inc https://g.co/kgs/QdSHQL
2023-07-02T16:45:03
2023-07-31T20:59:00
2023-07-31T21:16:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UDQAMOXIyVY5bdkKDTSX
Will there be more than 88 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in July 2023?
The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org
2023-07-02T15:56:43
2023-08-08T14:59:00
2023-08-08T17:06:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Etk74Nz4sXb6XR27Nhmm
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix?
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race
2023-07-02T14:43:10
2023-07-30T07:33:28
2023-07-30T07:33:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3xdF86eGDqPQOjr0RFi1
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix?
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race.
2023-07-02T14:43:08
2023-07-30T07:37:07
2023-07-30T07:37:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QB9ejcYR9hAmErE3nSID
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix?
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on July 30, 2023.
2023-07-02T14:43:00
2023-07-30T07:34:50
2023-07-30T07:34:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vkS6ZmYHyg395IIrsl8x
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix?
The race will take place on July 30, 2023.
2023-07-02T14:42:54
2023-07-30T07:44:51
2023-07-30T07:44:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-94CisOnkfTA40WIk34oc
Will Lukashenko remain the leader of Belarus throughout 2023?
Resolves YES if Lukashenko remains the undisputed and functional leader of Belarus without interruption at the end of 2023.
2023-07-02T13:09:46
2023-12-31T20:40:44
2023-12-31T20:40:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ri18JTGRGHxTO2pH0158
In the French riots, will a French policeman be killed by a rioter before the end of July 2023.
Excluding accidental death caused by the riots. Including firearm, blade, punch, molotov cocktail etc... Edit: 'policeman' includes female police officers
2023-07-02T12:44:09
2023-08-01T14:59:00
2023-08-01T15:37:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iqEyf6V34rqLYOrn6qy6
Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
For historical context, here's the link to the Wiki of popular vote history: (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin)The leading third party candidate in the last three elections has been the Libertarian candidate: 2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.87m Popular Votes, cc 1.12%) 2016 - Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 4.49m Popular Votes, cc 3.28%) 2012 - Gary "Before What Is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 1.28m Popular Votes, cc 0.99%) With approximately 240 million eligible voters in the US as of the 2020 election, a third party candidate would need, at approximately 60% turnout, 2.9 million votes to achieve a 2% share of the popular vote. Resolves YES for any non-Republican, non-Democrat candidate in the 2024 US General Election for President receiving 2% or higher of final popular vote total. Will not resolve until Inauguration Day 2025 Edited note: This market does not round up. The minimum must be a percentage of 0.02 or higher.
2023-07-02T09:14:44
2024-11-23T03:58:47
2024-11-23T03:58:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7sCxFQkx4Qmb2ZiYa4Xm
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive in 2100?
It is said that every time you bet YES on a Jimmy Carter survival market, he gets just a little bit stronger. Can we use this technique to extend his life span all the way to 2100? Perhaps having a market about his very, very long term survival will amplify the effect and make him live as long as possible.
2023-07-02T08:55:37
2024-12-31T20:29:21
2024-12-31T20:29:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r4G0lhN7vcBUS5lLDZSH
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 7th than it closed on July 6th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-07-02T03:47:05
2023-07-07T11:00:00
2023-07-07T16:01:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kWH8rxOwt8mHBRiFlymj
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 6th than it closed on July 5th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-07-02T03:45:52
2023-07-06T11:00:00
2023-07-06T14:13:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zYcmWXCTzDsMwauWBt7p
Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 3rd than it closed on June 30th?
Closes 1pm EDT. NYSE closes 1pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-07-02T03:33:48
2023-07-03T10:00:00
2023-07-03T10:22:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc
Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?
Important: in the case of a draw (both judges undecided, or a split decision), this market resolves N/A, not NO. Rootclaim is an organisation, founded by Saar Wilf, that performs analysis and makes truth claims on various, possibly controversial matters. One current such claim is that COVID-19 originated in a lab leak, with high probability. Rootclaim has a standing offer called the Rootclaim challange, in which someone who disagrees with their analysis may challenge them to a debate judged by professional judges, with each party having $100,000 at stake. No such debate has yet taken place. (Edit: It has now!) AstralCodexTen commentor Peter Miller (who goes by the handle BSP9000) is currently considering taking them up on the offer, on the topic of whether COVID-19 originate in a lab leak. Peter Miller will argue that COVID-19 did not originate in a lab leak, and RootClaim will argue that it did. Peter and Saar Wilf are currently attempting to find judges. Conditional on such a debate going ahead, will Peter Miller win? This market will resolve YES if a debate largely matching the spirit of the Rootclaim challange, with approximately $100,000 at stake, goes ahead this year, and Peter Miller is judged to be the winner. Reduced stakes will not count, other than as needed to pay for the costs of the judges and other costs relating to the debate itself, which is stipulated as part of the challange. If Saar Wilf is judged to be the winner, this market will resolve NO. If the debate does not go ahead or if there is not a clear winner, it resolves N/A. Edit Oct 22: in light of the rules of the debate prescribing different degrees of victory, as discussed by Peter Miller here, It seems neccesary to clarify what counts as "winning". Peter Miller writes: The winner will receive $100,000 for a unanimous decision. If one judge is undecided, the payout will be $50,000. There's also a possibility that neither side wins anything, if both judges are undecided or it's a split decision with one judge voting natural and the other voting for gain of function. Assuming the above is accurate, I'll count a participant that receives either a $100,000 payout or a $50,000 payout as the winner. That is, a participant declared the winner unanimously by both judges, or by one judge with the other undecided, is the winner for the purposes of this market. Update Dec 30th: the debate has taken place and we now await the judges' results. Edit Jan 22nd: here is Peter's latest comment with links to videos and documents from the debate, included here in full for convenience (since it will get buried in the comment thread otherwise): I've posted all the videos and all the slides. Now we're just waiting on the judges to announce. The original rules said they'd just write something, but Saar and I recently asked judges to make some videos as well, for something more authoritative. We're still figuring out the timing... maybe another week, give or take? Get your bets in now before it's too late. For anyone tuning in late, the videos are here: https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos And the written documents were posted in a few different threads: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#MnyfXgxSlBcibruUuPix https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#yTVcg82DSpZN5z0PCzrq https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#6qAoFKOBTNX19qkVQwC4 https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#u7RkSIgHHxAswJeev8Vc https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#QXjaWtX6e9928lpVcUEX
2023-07-02T01:09:08
2024-02-17T20:21:42
2024-02-17T20:21:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JzTHVLWdqXEBB8VMh0Pr
Will bitcoin close above $30,587 on August 1, 2023?
Close for July 1 was $30,587 Will it go up or down by August?
2023-07-01T22:45:49
2023-08-01T20:05:51
2023-08-01T20:06:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-X17UjLEGTMhL9mVBhkXl
Will there be a Twitter boycott in 2023?
Of a similar scale like the Reddit blackout where a significant proportion of the community leaves the platform (at least temporarily). Boycotts specifically against Elon Musk will not count. Clarifications: If significant amount of users leave other than an organised boycott this will resolve to NO ( @Noit )
2023-07-01T19:51:29
2024-01-01T07:59:00
2024-01-01T10:06:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JoniB7RqN30ChYYcExim
Ramzan Kadyrov publicly speaks out against Putin by name before 2025
In validated media, audio or video
2023-07-01T19:10:28
2025-01-01T12:04:02
2025-01-01T12:04:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g2hGshjig7Pp2Ixex9xB
Will nitter be working again on august 20th?
At a random time on that day I will try nitter.net .
2023-07-01T16:42:01
2023-08-21T03:01:21
2023-08-21T03:01:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FHCTYzu9apRt1ZXMrvjI
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Asia before 2030?
Including the Middle East and transcontinental countries such as Russia and Turkey. "Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030. Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES. Part of a series: @/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-newly-lega @/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-newly-lega-858e77296c28 @/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-newly-lega-5b38955218aa @/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-newly-lega-e84d0cba41f9 @/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-newly-lega-2afa9c621a1a @/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-banned-in
2023-07-01T15:59:32
2024-06-18T11:19:38
2024-06-18T11:19:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BBIGI3kx55kCAIv5yWXR
International Mathematical Olympiad 2023: Will some contestant obtain a perfect score?
The International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) is an annually held high school mathematics competition. This year the contest is held in Japan. Will any contestant obtain a perfect score of 42 points? Resolves according to the statistics that will appear shortly after the closing ceremony (12th of July) here: https://www.imo-official.org/year_info.aspx?year=2023. Trading closes when the closing ceremony starts. For comparison and clarity, in 2022 there were 10 contestants who got full scores (see here) and the market would have resolved YES.
2023-07-01T12:08:21
2023-07-11T12:44:10
2023-07-11T12:44:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2sTv7nllP22trOKHCnra
Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release before March 2024?
https://www.eldenring.jp/newsdetail/news_detail_230228_1.html https://twitter.com/ELDENRING/status/1630478058103734274 As long as it is released in any territory in that timezone's February 2024 or earlier this will resolve to YES.
2023-07-01T12:03:53
2024-03-01T06:40:39
2024-03-01T06:40:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FTGtsTMjv5zNxVMoZuKK
Will Twitter remove the new rate limits by the end of August 2023?
Musk recently tweeted that now people can see at most 300 tweets a day. [tweet]This market resolves to YES if non-paying users can see an unlimited amount of tweets. I won't bet on this market. Other Musk-related markets: [markets]
2023-07-01T10:30:58
2023-08-31T19:59:00
2023-09-03T10:25:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kIiNsHWWhVguQQlX7fGq
Tesla releases FSD 12 in 2023
By that name.
2023-07-01T09:52:36
2023-12-31T23:55:36
2023-12-31T23:55:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-og6IwihX4M6P7qmLHQ2o
Will Damien Lillard be traded to the Heat before the 2023-2024 NBA season starts?
Resolves once the trade is announced.
2023-07-01T09:38:04
2023-09-27T21:14:04
2023-09-27T21:14:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NU0QfRi8sBrEGBuw0ZTV
Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024?
For any portion of the day.
2023-07-01T09:17:59
2024-11-05T23:59:00
2024-11-06T06:54:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RcVlmpOvKKEsDeCo521l
Will twitter rate limits be fixed before the weekend is over?
Twitter rate limit problem (for twitter web or mobile app; not scrapers) must be resolved (user verified or elon announcement) by 11:59 PM PST on Sunday 7/2/23. Want to be clear here: we are talking about users logging into the app and being rate limited from their daily scroll. If there is a solution for this where twitter feels back to normal for users (even if there are still rate limits just set very high now as to only target scrapers) by the end of the day on sunday, this market will resolve to YES. If there is not a clear announcement on this, we will look to users to confirm if they are getting rate limited anymore. If there is too much uncertainty, we will keep the market open for another couple days to see if an announcement can disprove it was not fixed over the weekend, which will resolve NO. If there is still high uncertainty, we will resolve N/A.
2023-07-01T08:33:54
2023-07-03T00:00:00
2023-07-03T07:01:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GCtnPylpsQ0NI0ZIkejA
Will a team from the West reach the semifinals of League of Legends World Championships in 2023?
The League of Legends World Championship (Worlds) is the most prestigious tournament in the esports scene, where the best teams from different regions compete for the ultimate glory. In 2023, the tournament will be held in South Korea, the birthplace of esports and home of the LCK, one of the strongest leagues in the world. The West, which includes Europe, North America, and Latin America, has historically struggled to match the level of the East, which includes China, Korea, and Southeast Asia. However, in recent years, some Western teams have shown signs of improvement and have reached the semifinals or even the finals of Worlds. For example, in 2018, Fnatic from Europe reached the finals and lost to Invictus Gaming from China. In 2019, G2 Esports from Europe reached the finals and lost to FunPlus Phoenix from China. In 2020, no Western team reached the semifinals, as they were all eliminated by Eastern teams in the quarterfinals. In 2021, MAD Lions from Europe reached the semifinals and lost to DAMWON Gaming from Korea. In 2022, Rogue from Europe was the only Western team to reach the quarterfinals, but they lost to JD Gaming from China. This market is about predicting whether a team from the West will reach the semifinals of Worlds 2023. The outcome will be determined by the official results of the tournament published by Riot Games, the developer and organizer of League of Legends. The market will resolve as YES if at least one team from Europe, North America, or Latin America reaches the semifinals of Worlds 2023. The market will resolve as NO if no team from these regions reaches the semifinals of Worlds 2023. The market will be voided if Worlds 2023 is cancelled or postponed for any reason.
2023-07-01T00:24:32
2023-11-02T03:49:37
2023-11-02T03:49:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lGr4OIRikyWvEe4regp9
Will NATO deploy nuclear weapons to Poland before 2024?
"Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, said that his country would like to join the nuclear exchange programme among NATO countries in view of Russia's intentions to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus." NATO's nuclear sharing program is a significant aspect of the alliance's collective defense strategy. Under this program, several NATO member states, including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey, participate in the sharing of nuclear weapons provided by the United States. This arrangement enables these countries to contribute to NATO's deterrence and defense capabilities, despite not possessing their own nuclear arsenals. It highlights the principle of nuclear burden-sharing within the alliance, ensuring a unified and credible deterrent posture. The program underscores NATO's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in Europe while leveraging the strategic capabilities of its member states in a cooperative manner. By fostering cohesion and cooperation among its members, NATO's nuclear sharing program serves as a vital pillar of the alliance's overall security framework. Resolves YES on NATO confirmation https://news.yahoo.com/poland-wants-deploy-nuclear-weapons-134824493.html [link preview]
2023-06-30T20:43:52
2023-12-31T07:59:00
2024-01-04T12:03:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KmoxBfe5LaVS2JTx3w5y
Will NATO deploy nuclear weapons to Poland before 2025?
"Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, said that his country would like to join the nuclear exchange programme among NATO countries in view of Russia's intentions to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus." NATO's nuclear sharing program is a significant aspect of the alliance's collective defense strategy. Under this program, several NATO member states, including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey, participate in the sharing of nuclear weapons provided by the United States. This arrangement enables these countries to contribute to NATO's deterrence and defense capabilities, despite not possessing their own nuclear arsenals. It highlights the principle of nuclear burden-sharing within the alliance, ensuring a unified and credible deterrent posture. The program underscores NATO's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in Europe while leveraging the strategic capabilities of its member states in a cooperative manner. By fostering cohesion and cooperation among its members, NATO's nuclear sharing program serves as a vital pillar of the alliance's overall security framework. Resolves YES on NATO confirmation https://news.yahoo.com/poland-wants-deploy-nuclear-weapons-134824493.html [link preview]
2023-06-30T20:43:35
2024-12-31T07:59:00
2025-01-03T03:39:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kCpQBFYYU193aYapoVSR
Will any part of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant be damaged by explosions by the end of 2023?
From the creation of this question onwards.
2023-06-30T18:26:40
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T01:01:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MY75CE4C8XXAgG9BaxO9
Will the Wagner private military continue to operate in Africa at the end of 2023?
Will there be evidence (such as reports from credible media) that Wagner soldiers continue to remain stationed in at least one African country on 31 December 2023?
2023-06-30T18:24:56
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T00:35:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XYtyJCsFZL20gl8swOYd
Will Wes Anderson's Asteroid City be nominated for any Academy Awards?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-30T17:43:01
2024-01-24T14:39:35
2024-01-24T14:39:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g5pevwE4smizsfwW2Fyn
Will Twitter have a login wall on July 10?
At approximately market close, I will visit the following page in an Incognito window: twitter.com/elonmusk/ If that redirects to a login page (or full screen pop-up) the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. If others are able to check at the exact close time and provide screenshots I will accept that as proof unless there's reason to believe it's fraudulent. Otherwise it will be based on whenever I check, even if that turns out to be a bit later than the exact close (could be up to 48 hours). Any changes to the login wall between now and close don't matter, just the end state at close time as described above. It doesn't matter whether the login page can be bypassed/dismissed. Context: https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/30/twitter-now-requires-an-account-to-view-tweets/
2023-06-30T17:14:15
2023-07-10T17:00:00
2023-07-10T17:03:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3gwlMJi6gE2vqICoV9ko
Will Starship’s hot-staging work on the first try?
Ie, on the next full stack test flight to use hot staging, will that hot staging be basically nominal? If the hot staging is a direct or the primary indirect cause of flight failure, this will resolve NO If SpaceX abandons hot staging without testing it, this resolves N/A. UPDATE: this question has now reduced to whether "the hot staging [was] a direct or the primary indirect cause of flight failure" of the lower stage (or the upper stage I guess but that seems much less likely). See the comments, especially the earliest ones where I precommited to that interpretation.
2023-06-30T15:53:14
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-02-26T18:14:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tZhrCazWdFxaLv6SaZCw
Will the right wing party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany be above 20% in surveys at the end of the year?
This resolves yes according to the last posted results on Twitter @Wahlen_DE in 2023 for "Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl" if it's 21% or more. They currently (30th of June) stand at 19%. [image]
2023-06-30T13:47:40
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2023-12-31T21:52:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BFIk3XA0avC9s9J7wmxP
Will at least one major diet soda brand remove aspartame from its product by the end of 2023?
For the purpose of this question, major diet soda products using aspartame include: Coke Zero Sugar Diet Coke Sprite Zero Pepsi Zero Sugar Pepsi Max Mountain Dew Zero Sugar 7 Up Free Resolves YES if any of these products as sold in stores does not contain aspartame at the end of the year. Otherwise, resolves NO.
2023-06-30T12:05:30
2023-12-31T11:59:00
2023-12-31T12:13:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RvniKv6mYY9stNAF4Ha7
Will the FDA update their acceptable daily intake of aspartame by the end of August?
https://www.fda.gov/food/food-additives-petitions/aspartame-and-other-sweeteners-food Currently, the FDA lists the ADI (acceptable daily intake) of aspartame as 50 mg/kg bw/d. If that value has changed in any direction in the "text version of safe levels of sweeteners" by the end of August, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO. If the page is removed or down, resolves N/A.
2023-06-30T12:02:40
2023-08-31T22:00:00
2023-08-31T22:12:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OOfpQLXz1KuHkeoo8GOK
Will a stage 2023 Tour de France be interrupted due to protests?
Resolves YES if during a stage at the 2023 Tour de France protesters stop more than one rider for a least one minute. An example of this event occurred last year at stage 10: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France,_Stage_1_to_Stage_11#Stage_10 More context: https://www.npr.org/2023/06/30/1185268439/more-than-600-arrests-after-a-new-night-of-protests-across-france-over-teens-kil https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/tour-de-france-beefs-up-security-foil-potential-disruption-road-2023-06-30/ [link preview]
2023-06-30T10:55:03
2023-07-23T10:44:27
2023-07-23T10:44:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9TlUY8I8lGnT41WPKHlh
Will Novak Djokovic win Men's Singles at Wimbledon 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-30T10:38:14
2023-07-17T10:12:41
2023-07-17T10:12:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9jhgoso50xXR5EFCCwBc
Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024?
The U.K. Conservative Party last led a national poll in December 2021; since then, the Labour Party have tied or led in every poll. Resolves to YES if a valid poll with the Conservatives leading is published and NO otherwise. A valid poll must: – Be a national (Great Britain) Westminster voting intention poll, not a regional poll – Be based on the current situation, not on some sort of hypothetical – Have the Conservatives leading, not tied, where this is based off the integer-valued percentages that are published – Be carried out entirely before the end of 2024 – Be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council See here for past polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
2023-06-30T07:30:14
2024-11-01T12:29:26
2024-11-01T12:29:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JJFeTECA3dmPdhSvZm76
Will Lex Fridman interview Yevgeny Prigozhin before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-30T06:24:38
2023-09-29T08:45:47
2023-09-29T08:45:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2WPF4uGVBT9Tr5f1yUyE
Will there be any protests or riots in Paris between August 1, 2023, and August 31, 2023?
Protest: A protest refers to a public display of dissent, typically involving a group of people gathering to express their grievances, demands, or support for a particular cause or issue. Protests can take various forms, including marches, rallies, sit-ins, strikes, or other nonviolent forms of demonstration. Riots: Riots involve violent or disorderly behavior during a public disturbance. They usually entail acts such as vandalism, destruction of property, looting, clashes with law enforcement or opposing groups, and other forms of aggressive or unlawful conduct. (https://manifold.markets/embed/FlanAuxQuetsches/will-the-cop-who-shot-nahel-m-be-fo)
2023-06-30T01:35:23
2023-07-30T14:59:00
2023-09-04T01:00:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IJR20NgPP7BliuxQ3XLq
Will trump be elected president while NOT incarcerated?
Resolves YES if multiple news outlets call the 2024 election for Trump while Trump is NOT in prison. Resolves NO if that doesn't happen by 12-15-2024. The flipped version: (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/will-trump-be-elected-president-whi)
2023-06-29T20:42:55
2024-11-07T06:43:19
2024-11-07T06:43:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sTUGQDblEqXDaq5kJLhy
Will Trump be elected president while incarcerated?
Resolved YES if multiple news outlets call the presidential election for Trump while trump is in prison. Resolves NO if that doesn't happen by 12-15-2024. The flipped version: (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/will-trump-be-elected-president-whi-f7ca78f4833d)
2023-06-29T20:36:59
2024-11-06T17:10:00
2024-11-06T17:10:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-itdFLnRot4VWPE6tFwiW
Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2025?
Classical decryptions don't count, but partially classical decryptions which use a quantum computer do. Please post proof / articles in the comments.
2023-06-29T16:47:20
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-31T23:39:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hrMZTKzSB4AIkGEjOsKS
Will the Harvard class of 2028 have <15% African American students?
In a historic decision, the Supreme Court severely limited, if not effectively ended, the use of affirmative action in college admissions on Thursday. By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that the admissions programs used by the University of North Carolina and Harvard College violate the Constitution’s equal protection clause, which bars racial discrimination by government entities. The Harvard freshman class of 2028 will be admitted fully after the latest Supreme Court decision. Will Harvard declare that the class is <15% African American? 2027: 15.3% 2026: 15.2% 2025: 15.7% Resolves according to https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics, once available for the class of 2028. Similar to this claim: [tweet]
2023-06-29T16:13:18
2024-09-12T23:01:53
2024-09-12T23:01:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qUrL0LtTeNs5xYdxhwjJ
Will there be another perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball by the end of the 2024 season?
This includes the remainder of this season and all of next season, playoffs included. Bear in mind that there have only been 24 such occurances in the history of the game, the most recent just yesterday (6/28/23). That said, there were 6 between 2009-2012.
2023-06-29T15:54:47
2024-10-31T14:25:57
2024-10-31T14:25:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Sct7u5K3wh2M3lc6CWtb
Will Merrick Garland be impeached during the 118th Congress?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-29T12:56:47
2025-01-03T11:52:35
2025-01-03T11:52:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Owefuph5aCdvo40Obcbl
Will AirBnB colapse before 2025?
I will consider an AirBnB collapse if It goes bankrupt or if it's acquired by another company.
2023-06-29T11:08:26
2024-12-31T15:00:00
2025-01-04T08:30:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qJ1IWNzWLTDS4ibc4UOR
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is More than 35% Asian by 2028?
If any Harvard College (undergraduate) class up to and including the class of 2032 (admitted in the fall of 2028) is more than 34.9% Asian, this market resolves yes. Methodology: the Crimson publishes demographics of each admitted class that remains searchable, this will be for Asian + South Asian/Indian. From the class of 2017 to 2026 this figure as ranged from 21.9% (2022) to 32.9% (2020). See e.g. https://features.thecrimson.com/2014/freshman-survey/makeup/
2023-06-29T10:14:47
2025-02-15T12:02:52
2025-02-15T12:02:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-abEYzzdbCEPdZEHpGxRp
Will Madonna survive 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-29T07:39:45
2023-12-31T20:53:10
2023-12-31T20:53:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-blonK9LG9gO1i0ByBdv0
Will China win the most gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
If China is not winning more than the all others in outright, it will be the NO for most position.
2023-06-29T05:59:37
2024-08-11T08:23:00
2024-08-11T08:23:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HZKHs5sbICIRrtBeGXMu
Will Sergei Surovikin be arrested during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-28T15:40:44
2023-12-31T12:59:00
2024-01-01T07:12:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RzI9gX1GwuuHbFeeoXVY
Will Putin publicly claim Surovikin was Prigozhin’s accomplice by the end of 2023?
(https://www.wionews.com/world/leaked-intel-foils-wagners-attempt-to-capture-russias-military-leadership-report-609743)
2023-06-28T10:49:29
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:09:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3HyDzEb4EQarTuHYq4On
Will Microsoft reach a $3 Trillion market cap at any point before the end of 2023?
https://g.co/finance/MSFT:NASDAQ
2023-06-28T09:09:59
2023-12-31T20:13:41
2023-12-31T20:13:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y1W8WaiUaHT1157DFYoe
Will Prigozhin outlive Jimmy Carter?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-28T08:50:43
2023-08-27T05:55:42
2023-08-27T05:55:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lYAPqeNIddOeEL4C6EF3
Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Monday 3rd July
It's now been over two weeks since almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June. We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up, but the number coming back seems to keep slowing and slowing... This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2330/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 26.4%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES. The deadline is Monday at 21:00 UK time (the closing time of the market). Since we're now pretty close to 25%, it shouldn't take too much of a push to get over the line but if a subreddit still hasn't come back by now then we have to wonder whether they're ever going to come back willingly! Previous markets tracking the progress: @/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida @/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33 @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833 (With thanks to @MP who came up with the idea and created the first two markets here) Resolution notes: If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
2023-06-28T08:38:26
2023-07-03T05:01:38
2023-07-03T05:01:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hEIqI2E5YOLAuEA93DE6
Someone has two children. One of them is a girl. Given this, is the probability that the other child is a boy 0.5?
This is a probability question, not a biology question. I'm aware that birth sex ratios are not exactly 1:1 and this question isn't about intersex idenities. The resolution will assume a 1:1 sex ration for the human population.
2023-06-28T08:17:23
2023-06-29T20:59:00
2023-06-30T02:34:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OFtH438NHBUfyA07hOEY
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 29th June than it closed on 28th June?
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 29th June than it did on Wednesday 28th June? The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. And here are some longer term FTSE markets: [markets]
2023-06-28T07:43:03
2023-06-29T08:30:00
2023-06-29T08:37:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2zLaxL6lseDDj4TfFXcy
Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
This question will be determined by the secondary vote results in Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia. 2021 the SPD was the party with the most votes in eastern Germany: Thuringia SPD 296.446 AfD 303.233 Saxony-Anhalt SPD 305.085 AfD 235.492 Saxony SPD 474.804 AfD 607.044 Berlin SPD 428.289 AfD 153.694 Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania SPD 267.368 AfD 165.342 Brandenburg SPD 450.573 AfD 277.412 Adds up to: SPD 2.222.565 AfD 1.742.217 Resolves to "No", if another party has more secondary votes than the AfD.
2023-06-28T03:23:26
2025-02-23T08:59:00
2025-02-24T05:59:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CSNobqWEv7iuKhJntAEz
Will AI wipe out humanity before Q2 2024?
If humanity is still around on April 1, 2024, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
2023-06-27T21:29:56
2024-03-31T05:59:00
2024-04-01T05:24:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ybjnntS2975amHFNrEjc
Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason by the end of 2024?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-donald-trump-suffer-a-stelevat)
2023-06-27T21:01:53
2024-07-13T16:29:49
2024-07-13T16:29:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Jby0teCzrKU2pRUJYBEf
Will Destiny talk to Adam22 again by the end of August?
[markets]
2023-06-27T20:41:01
2023-08-03T08:21:35
2023-08-03T08:21:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yDIAKeGJyi2q4jD1B9j9
Will Bibi Netanyahu visit Beijing before he visits Washington DC?
The Prime Minister has been bragging about his invite from Xi Jinping and it has apparently made a cold DC even chillier. https://www.timesofisrael.com/strategic-mistake-netanyahu-panned-for-planning-china-visit-as-signal-to-biden/ [link preview]Resolves YES if Netanyahu visits Xi Jinping in Zhongnanhai before he meets with Joe Biden in the Oval Office. Related Questions: [markets]
2023-06-27T16:37:52
2024-07-24T09:51:43
2024-07-24T09:51:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lM2kxTkLkeR0Aqqs14ll
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2024?
In line with recent progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2024? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs. Systems which are pretrained on human data are allowed. Clarification 6/28 10:37AM - The system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator. Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.
2023-06-27T13:19:24
2024-01-01T19:01:45
2024-01-01T19:01:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LtjbFX1AwfdljVy8vakt
Will Google lay off 5k or more people globally in Q3, 2023?
Global workforce, not just the corporate staff
2023-06-26T23:48:55
2023-10-01T08:53:50
2023-10-01T08:53:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PE6KbwcktQfKetT0ixuc
Will another military coup be attempted in Russia in 2023 (Kamil Galeev prediction)
[tweet]https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1672966732967714821
2023-06-26T17:39:28
2023-12-31T11:59:00
2023-12-31T23:43:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Wk7aCDL0Blpjms2wtJ73
Will actors strike by July?
On May 2, 2023, American screenwriters (unionized as WGA) began a strike which continues to this day. Their demands included issues such as better pay, better job security, and protection from AI. This strike has already led to a substantial amount of filmmaking being shut down. Now, it's being reported that actors and actresses (unionized as SAG-AFTRA) are also planning to hold a strike if they can't negotiate a new contract by the time their old one expires on June 30 (thus scheduling the strike to begin on July 1). Like the writers, actors are also seeking better pay and protection from AI. However, these kinds of strikes are rare - the last writers' strike was from November 2007 to February 2008, whereas the last actors' strike was from May to September 2000. This market resolves YES if a substantial amount of actors and/or actresses go on strike on or by July 1, 2023, and NO otherwise. I will use the mainstream media to resolve the market.
2023-06-26T15:24:00
2023-07-01T20:59:00
2023-07-01T21:06:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DgT3wPneFl9GPjC9MUFw
Will the continental United States’ highest recorded ground temperature of 134F (57C) be broken this summer?
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/discussions/archive_nathilo.php?adate=06/21/2023&sdate=20230621 Heat index or any of those "feels like" notes for humidity-driven states will not count. The recorded high temperature must be captured on the NOAA website and archived. Resolves YES if any location within the continental United States records a temperature above 134 degrees Fahrenheit (56.667 Celsius) before September 23, 2023.
2023-06-26T13:58:27
2023-09-22T21:59:00
2023-09-23T04:58:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ie1WyH2VxKS4CBlORrJq
If Prigozhin dies within 24 hours of the last bet on this market, it resolves yes
i.e. imagine he dies at a certain time. At that point, I will look back at the betting history and if someone has bet on the market within the prior 24 hours, the market resolves Yes. Otherwise No.
2023-06-26T11:26:55
2025-02-23T11:47:20
2025-02-23T11:47:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-09JcK64Ai3OpGnufPceO
Will Valve officially launch Counter-Strike 2 before August?
(https://www.counter-strike.net/cs2)
2023-06-26T11:10:54
2023-07-30T22:58:52
2023-07-30T22:58:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8PeVif6ay7nXEU9mWnRQ
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 27th June than it closed on 26th June?
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 27th June than it did on Monday 26th June? The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. And here are some longer term FTSE markets: [markets]
2023-06-26T07:30:05
2023-06-27T08:30:00
2023-06-27T08:51:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IJndAILB3UucjdRwvf6n
Shoigu and Gerasimov still in power on 24 July
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-26T02:40:18
2023-07-23T16:59:00
2023-07-30T16:19:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yaWFgNksTS07TYSXjae3
Will Wagner group attack Ukraine from Belarus?
Czech politian Martin Dvořák claims that the coup of Prigozhin was staged in order to have plausible reason to move the Wagner group to Belarus, as further threatening Ukraine. CNN Prima News: "I called it 'commedia finita' - it was a very well-prepared scenario of how they got to Moscow without firing a shot, right down to the alleged phone call," Dvořák said. According to him, we can only speculate as to what direction the game should take. "But I feel a chill that the whole result of the operation will be that 25,000 mercenaries will be moved to Belarus and thus closer to Kiev. Whatever we may think, Prigozhin's behaviour is inexplicable," Dvořák said. The question resolves YES if the Wagner group is part of an attack on Ukraine from Belarus before 1.1.2025, regardless of what happens to Prigozhin.
2023-06-25T11:57:40
2024-12-31T13:42:52
2024-12-31T13:42:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rQ7E3qcjeIAY58G90Ms2
Prigozhin dies in a plane crash
Anywhere anytime for any reason. No due date
2023-06-25T11:04:23
2023-08-28T12:42:38
2023-08-28T12:42:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-h59YRZiV06X83xIBgbRi
Will the Wagner Chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin still be alive by the end of 2024?
Putin has a history of having political opponents meet less than fortunate outcomes, usually involving falling from buildings. For this market to resolve yes, reports of the current wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin death needs to be confirmed by media (preferably several sources, and international rather than RU state news). This is not conditional on foul play, as natural causes, self inflected, act of war and anything in between is valid for this resolution. Being missing and unaccounted for is not sufficient for a yes. For this market to resolve no, there must indication or news about their death. At 31 dec 2024 @2359, the market will close. I'll give it one day from there to assess the news and then payout the winners.
2023-06-25T07:12:44
2023-08-28T05:25:26
2023-08-28T05:25:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Qzcm46r7qTdLHDd2NU84
Will the Russian invasion be over by 2025?
Specifically, of Ukraine. I'll count this if there is either news of peace being agreed to, massive withdrawl of troops, a ceasefire that doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon, etc.
2023-06-25T03:20:23
2024-12-31T16:59:00
2025-01-04T07:09:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MGpzSlAJwySz2ia0DNO0
Will there be another mutiny in Russia before 2024?
By a Private Military Company, a Paramilitary Organisation or even a part of the regular Military What is a mutiny? Wikipedia says: Mutiny is a revolt among a group of people (typically of a military, of a crew, or of a crew of pirates) to oppose, change, or overthrow an organization to which they were previously loyal. In this case the organisation is the Russian State. The size of the group mutinying must be at least 500 people. (this could either be the headcount of the organisation (if the organisation is generally involved in the mutiny) or the reported number of participants in the mutiny) "What if Russian troops refuse to follow orders?" (like the French mutinies of 1917) "These kind of situations will be hard to pre-emptively fully cover, but the 'spirit of the question' is that the "mutiny" should involve an attempt* to force leadership change on the organisation they are mutinying against, rather than simply a refusal to follow orders likely to lead to death. Of course, often such a refusal swiftly leads to rather more active resistance. In the case of the French mutinies, from brief reading it seems that their demands did not include (perhaps surprisingly) the removal of Nivelle from his position, so in a hypothetical exact repeat I'd resolve NO, barring persuasive expert arguments in the press that there was an attempt to force leadership change."
2023-06-24T23:24:55
2023-12-31T07:59:00
2024-01-01T15:31:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5vFyB6y3ND70LkTI0Cda
Will there be another mutiny in Russia before 2025?
By a Private Military Company, a Paramilitary Organisation or even a part of the regular Military What is a mutiny? Wikipedia says: Mutiny is a revolt among a group of people (typically of a military, of a crew, or of a crew of pirates) to oppose, change, or overthrow an organization to which they were previously loyal. In this case the organisation is the Russian State. The size of the group mutinying must be at least 500 people. (this could either be the headcount of the organisation (if the organisation is generally involved in the mutiny) or the reported number of participants in the mutiny.
2023-06-24T23:24:47
2024-12-31T07:59:00
2025-01-03T03:38:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BeHf1kcRLPSIgHoXTvgP
Will Putin outlive Prigozhin
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-24T21:55:43
2023-08-28T16:47:09
2023-08-28T16:47:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jv1r5jFfLfSjGKUB2Wp0
Will Tesla Cybertruck Start Delivering to Customers in 2023?
This market will be resolved yes if it is clear that Tesla has delivered mass produced trucks to customers. If they are only producing test runs it will resolve no. Edge cases will resolve no. If they sneak it in under the wire it will resolve no. It will resolve early January
2023-06-24T12:31:56
2024-01-26T12:21:39
2024-01-26T12:21:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ey7wuaXf2qZmUUMVQB2J
Was Prigozhin's excursion to Moscow a plot/scheme/subterfuge/hoax et. al?
Was the Kremlin in on it? <-------- EDIT 12-08-23 --------> From now on I will probably add comment clarifications to the description even though I believe that clarification is primarily what comments are for, people seem to not like it. If there is material credible evidence (according to my judgement) that something other than a straightforward rebellion / revolt / insurrection / coup / mutiny / uprising / your favorite adjective here took place, I'll resolve it "Yes". The spirit of the question is asking if things were as they seemed, or if it was production put on for the benefit of the viewers, and the major outcomes were pre-determined or at least agreed upon. For instance, if the agreement between Lukashenko and Prigozhin was in place ahead of time and there was never any intention for troops to enter Moscow, and this becomes known in some way I would resolve the market "Yes", notably this does not require any involvement from the Russian military. I would actually claim that is justifiable for this market to be trading substantially higher, since there is no need to figure out why the Russian armed forces would be okay with losing seven aircraft in the course of acting out some sort of farcical cover for troop repositioning or whatever. As far as resolution, for now I feel comfortable placing the burden of proof on the hoax side, "insurrection" seems like a pretty good null hypothesis. If there is some level of low credibility evidence for it being a hoax, I will change my default resolution to N/A. Also, I might extend this market, I would guess that I would almost always do this rather than resolve the market N/A. Loans mean that the opportunity cost of leaving it open is fairly low, and I think the category of markets with what I'll call murky epistemics are useful as a reference for changes in sentiment. See for example, the "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market. Status: So far, there seems to be no evidence of a hoax, the current resolution date is still in place.
2023-06-24T11:34:50
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T06:34:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4tvFq6wdoAeteLYP0bgP
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at noon eastern time, July 14th?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-24T09:02:42
2023-07-14T09:00:00
2023-07-22T12:12:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zajR4sMmxZ5a0pGvAwJe
Will Putin and Prigozhin appear together in 2023?
Will they have a face to face meeting or be in the same room, confirmed with a photo or official report after 6/23 through eoy
2023-06-24T07:54:45
2023-11-17T06:35:04
2023-11-17T06:35:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Rd9oRWTlnQkmLx21VFXB
Will Putin flee Russia in 2023?
Resolves YES if Putin leaves Russia, under circumstances that can reasonably be considered 'fleeing' (not a normal diplomatic visit, ongoing power struggle, alternate lieader in place in Moscow etc) Otherwise resolves NO
2023-06-24T07:25:58
2023-12-31T07:59:00
2024-01-04T12:03:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HxcxfHmeoorPMSrlfbCn
Will the Kremlin be bombed by the end of June?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-24T05:44:53
2023-06-30T16:59:00
2023-07-01T10:05:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WIDyaT7tJBa8U7kiVUEI
Will Sergei Shoigu still be the Russian Minister of Defence at the end of July?
For simplicity, resolves based on Wikipedia. Prigozhin has threatened the Russian ministry of defense, and Shoigu is at its head. Will he outlast the coup?
2023-06-24T00:02:31
2023-07-31T23:59:00
2023-08-01T08:44:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6oi0C5J11bKKt6USV9W2
Either Prighozin or Putin dies in the next week or less (Tyler Cowen prediction)
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/06/what-game-theory-predicts.html [link preview]
2023-06-23T23:47:50
2023-07-01T14:59:00
2023-07-01T15:32:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uEfyXrgDamh5FXhamOJO
Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 28th?
Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow.
2023-06-23T23:13:40
2023-06-28T20:59:00
2023-06-28T21:18:24
no
MANIFOLD