id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-usyq5ooX4HB2jnLeEBQJ | Will Ukraine retake western Bakhmut by August 1? | Resolution
Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.
For this ... | 2023-07-03T06:55:23 | 2023-08-01T20:59:00 | 2023-08-02T07:32:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jUAiahY5EgpJ3yGFeiH3 | Will the S&P 500 increase in Q3 2023? | Will the S&P 500 increase from open on 2023-07-03 (4449.45) to close on 2023-09-29 (4288.05)?
S&P 500 close level from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023
3955.00, 3839.50, 4109.31, 4450.38, 4288.05
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | 2023-07-03T05:35:12 | 2023-09-29T17:00:00 | 2023-09-30T01:17:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0q4IWdPBWOOFNKHTjdxH | Will 80% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Monday 17th July | Three weeks ago on 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up - we originally thought that this might happen within a few days but the rate of reopening slowed down futher and further and it was ev... | 2023-07-03T04:58:48 | 2023-07-17T13:00:00 | 2023-07-17T13:25:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4VSuDyRrVWEY8jUvYIOa | Will the MLB World Series winner in 2023 be among the lower half of teams in terms of projected team payroll? | Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/04/06/mlb-team-payrolls-2023-highest-lowest-mets/11612107002/
[link preview]Resolves YES if the team that wins the World Series this year is ranked 16-30 in team payroll according to this list that was published in April. | 2023-07-03T04:20:36 | 2023-11-04T05:31:01 | 2023-11-04T05:31:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ON6NoRcovUKdotpGJldY | Will the S&P 500 increase in July 2023? | Will the S&P 500 increase from open on 2023-07-03 (4449.45) to close on 2023-07-31 (4588.96)?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-by-55-or-m
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level
January 4076.60
February 3970.15
March 4109.31
April 4169.48
May 4179.83
June 4450.38
http... | 2023-07-03T03:49:15 | 2023-07-31T14:32:10 | 2023-07-31T14:32:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1K1AqYppjRwnkO79nJJE | Will destiny's youtube channel hit 691k subscribers in July? | Going by his social blade stats.
@/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6
@/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-67504f80b5ab
@/Agh/will-destinys-youtube-channel-hit-6-cf43dfc20933
@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-996ed1f443cb | 2023-07-03T03:24:52 | 2023-07-31T21:00:00 | 2023-07-31T23:07:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XqBFpp5UolJ7eKv2RHQ6 | 2023: Will Biden's approval rating hit its all-time low (37.6%)? | This market will resolve to YES, if at any point of 2023, the Approval Rating for Joe Biden falls below 37.6%
[image]
resolution: 538, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
[link preview]This market will resolve to the bold line as indicated at the 538 chart. In case of a tie, detailed data to... | 2023-07-03T02:13:02 | 2023-12-21T06:00:34 | 2023-12-21T06:00:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RfrEVyGqwHvtmGsItOQX | Will Barbie gross more than 1.5x of Oppenheimer in their opening weekend? | Will use domestic stats from boxoffice mojo | 2023-07-02T23:52:24 | 2023-07-24T15:20:50 | 2023-07-24T15:20:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OoxiLgUc3MbxAH5kn4Zp | Will at least 3 US presidential debates occur in the 2024 election | Will at least 3 general election presidential debates occur in the 2024 election?
To resolve yes candidates of both Republican and Democratic parties must participate in each debate
Debates between vice presidential candidates do not count
Current count: 2 | 2023-07-02T20:34:31 | 2024-11-06T20:40:49 | 2024-11-06T20:40:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KqNxyMngW0WeJwnEZgxZ | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on July 3rd than it closed on July 2nd? | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: 30,613.50
[link preview] | 2023-07-02T17:17:56 | 2023-07-03T16:00:00 | 2023-07-03T17:01:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oKKmReYUAF8HzT4rdpl8 | Will Greta Gerwig's Barbie be rated at least 7.0 in IMDB at the end of 2023? | Closes by the end of 2023 at Yes if Barbie is rated 7.0 or above, and at No if not
IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268 | 2023-07-02T16:58:21 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:05:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4GrDPli8sbHRlLLlMLYE | Will Apple stock price hit $200 by the end of July? | Apple Inc https://g.co/kgs/QdSHQL | 2023-07-02T16:45:03 | 2023-07-31T20:59:00 | 2023-07-31T21:16:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UDQAMOXIyVY5bdkKDTSX | Will there be more than 88 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in July 2023? | The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org
| 2023-07-02T15:56:43 | 2023-08-08T14:59:00 | 2023-08-08T17:06:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Etk74Nz4sXb6XR27Nhmm | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race | 2023-07-02T14:43:10 | 2023-07-30T07:33:28 | 2023-07-30T07:33:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3xdF86eGDqPQOjr0RFi1 | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the race. | 2023-07-02T14:43:08 | 2023-07-30T07:37:07 | 2023-07-30T07:37:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QB9ejcYR9hAmErE3nSID | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on July 30, 2023. | 2023-07-02T14:43:00 | 2023-07-30T07:34:50 | 2023-07-30T07:34:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vkS6ZmYHyg395IIrsl8x | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix? | The race will take place on July 30, 2023. | 2023-07-02T14:42:54 | 2023-07-30T07:44:51 | 2023-07-30T07:44:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-94CisOnkfTA40WIk34oc | Will Lukashenko remain the leader of Belarus throughout 2023? | Resolves YES if Lukashenko remains the undisputed and functional leader of Belarus without interruption at the end of 2023. | 2023-07-02T13:09:46 | 2023-12-31T20:40:44 | 2023-12-31T20:40:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ri18JTGRGHxTO2pH0158 | In the French riots, will a French policeman be killed by a rioter before the end of July 2023. | Excluding accidental death caused by the riots. Including firearm, blade, punch, molotov cocktail etc...
Edit: 'policeman' includes female police officers | 2023-07-02T12:44:09 | 2023-08-01T14:59:00 | 2023-08-01T15:37:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iqEyf6V34rqLYOrn6qy6 | Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | For historical context, here's the link to the Wiki of popular vote history:
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin)The leading third party candidate in the last three elections has been the Libertarian candidate:
2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.... | 2023-07-02T09:14:44 | 2024-11-23T03:58:47 | 2024-11-23T03:58:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7sCxFQkx4Qmb2ZiYa4Xm | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive in 2100? | It is said that every time you bet YES on a Jimmy Carter survival market, he gets just a little bit stronger. Can we use this technique to extend his life span all the way to 2100? Perhaps having a market about his very, very long term survival will amplify the effect and make him live as long as possible. | 2023-07-02T08:55:37 | 2024-12-31T20:29:21 | 2024-12-31T20:29:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r4G0lhN7vcBUS5lLDZSH | Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 7th than it closed on July 6th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-07-02T03:47:05 | 2023-07-07T11:00:00 | 2023-07-07T16:01:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kWH8rxOwt8mHBRiFlymj | Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 6th than it closed on July 5th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-07-02T03:45:52 | 2023-07-06T11:00:00 | 2023-07-06T14:13:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zYcmWXCTzDsMwauWBt7p | Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 3rd than it closed on June 30th? | Closes 1pm EDT. NYSE closes 1pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of July. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-07-02T03:33:48 | 2023-07-03T10:00:00 | 2023-07-03T10:22:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc | Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19? | Important: in the case of a draw (both judges undecided, or a split decision), this market resolves N/A, not NO.
Rootclaim is an organisation, founded by Saar Wilf, that performs analysis and makes truth claims on various, possibly controversial matters. One current such claim is that COVID-19 originated in a lab leak... | 2023-07-02T01:09:08 | 2024-02-17T20:21:42 | 2024-02-17T20:21:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JzTHVLWdqXEBB8VMh0Pr | Will bitcoin close above $30,587 on August 1, 2023? | Close for July 1 was $30,587
Will it go up or down by August? | 2023-07-01T22:45:49 | 2023-08-01T20:05:51 | 2023-08-01T20:06:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X17UjLEGTMhL9mVBhkXl | Will there be a Twitter boycott in 2023? | Of a similar scale like the Reddit blackout where a significant proportion of the community leaves the platform (at least temporarily).
Boycotts specifically against Elon Musk will not count.
Clarifications:
If significant amount of users leave other than an organised boycott this will resolve to NO ( @Noit ) | 2023-07-01T19:51:29 | 2024-01-01T07:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:06:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JoniB7RqN30ChYYcExim | Ramzan Kadyrov publicly speaks out against Putin by name before 2025 | In validated media, audio or video | 2023-07-01T19:10:28 | 2025-01-01T12:04:02 | 2025-01-01T12:04:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g2hGshjig7Pp2Ixex9xB | Will nitter be working again on august 20th? | At a random time on that day I will try nitter.net . | 2023-07-01T16:42:01 | 2023-08-21T03:01:21 | 2023-08-21T03:01:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FHCTYzu9apRt1ZXMrvjI | Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Asia before 2030? | Including the Middle East and transcontinental countries such as Russia and Turkey.
"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029,... | 2023-07-01T15:59:32 | 2024-06-18T11:19:38 | 2024-06-18T11:19:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BBIGI3kx55kCAIv5yWXR | International Mathematical Olympiad 2023: Will some contestant obtain a perfect score? | The International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) is an annually held high school mathematics competition. This year the contest is held in Japan. Will any contestant obtain a perfect score of 42 points?
Resolves according to the statistics that will appear shortly after the closing ceremony (12th of July) here: https://w... | 2023-07-01T12:08:21 | 2023-07-11T12:44:10 | 2023-07-11T12:44:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2sTv7nllP22trOKHCnra | Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release before March 2024? | https://www.eldenring.jp/newsdetail/news_detail_230228_1.html
https://twitter.com/ELDENRING/status/1630478058103734274
As long as it is released in any territory in that timezone's February 2024 or earlier this will resolve to YES. | 2023-07-01T12:03:53 | 2024-03-01T06:40:39 | 2024-03-01T06:40:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FTGtsTMjv5zNxVMoZuKK | Will Twitter remove the new rate limits by the end of August 2023? | Musk recently tweeted that now people can see at most 300 tweets a day.
[tweet]This market resolves to YES if non-paying users can see an unlimited amount of tweets.
I won't bet on this market.
Other Musk-related markets:
[markets] | 2023-07-01T10:30:58 | 2023-08-31T19:59:00 | 2023-09-03T10:25:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kIiNsHWWhVguQQlX7fGq | Tesla releases FSD 12 in 2023 | By that name. | 2023-07-01T09:52:36 | 2023-12-31T23:55:36 | 2023-12-31T23:55:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-og6IwihX4M6P7qmLHQ2o | Will Damien Lillard be traded to the Heat before the 2023-2024 NBA season starts? | Resolves once the trade is announced. | 2023-07-01T09:38:04 | 2023-09-27T21:14:04 | 2023-09-27T21:14:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NU0QfRi8sBrEGBuw0ZTV | Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024? | For any portion of the day. | 2023-07-01T09:17:59 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T06:54:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RcVlmpOvKKEsDeCo521l | Will twitter rate limits be fixed before the weekend is over? | Twitter rate limit problem (for twitter web or mobile app; not scrapers) must be resolved (user verified or elon announcement) by 11:59 PM PST on Sunday 7/2/23.
Want to be clear here: we are talking about users logging into the app and being rate limited from their daily scroll. If there is a solution for this where t... | 2023-07-01T08:33:54 | 2023-07-03T00:00:00 | 2023-07-03T07:01:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GCtnPylpsQ0NI0ZIkejA | Will a team from the West reach the semifinals of League of Legends World Championships in 2023? | The League of Legends World Championship (Worlds) is the most prestigious tournament in the esports scene, where the best teams from different regions compete for the ultimate glory. In 2023, the tournament will be held in South Korea, the birthplace of esports and home of the LCK, one of the strongest leagues in the w... | 2023-07-01T00:24:32 | 2023-11-02T03:49:37 | 2023-11-02T03:49:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lGr4OIRikyWvEe4regp9 | Will NATO deploy nuclear weapons to Poland before 2024? | "Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, said that his country would like to join the nuclear exchange programme among NATO countries in view of Russia's intentions to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus."
NATO's nuclear sharing program is a significant aspect of the alliance's collective defense strateg... | 2023-06-30T20:43:52 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-01-04T12:03:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KmoxBfe5LaVS2JTx3w5y | Will NATO deploy nuclear weapons to Poland before 2025? | "Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, said that his country would like to join the nuclear exchange programme among NATO countries in view of Russia's intentions to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus."
NATO's nuclear sharing program is a significant aspect of the alliance's collective defense strateg... | 2023-06-30T20:43:35 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-03T03:39:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kCpQBFYYU193aYapoVSR | Will any part of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant be damaged by explosions by the end of 2023? | From the creation of this question onwards. | 2023-06-30T18:26:40 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:01:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MY75CE4C8XXAgG9BaxO9 | Will the Wagner private military continue to operate in Africa at the end of 2023? | Will there be evidence (such as reports from credible media) that Wagner soldiers continue to remain stationed in at least one African country on 31 December 2023? | 2023-06-30T18:24:56 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:35:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XYtyJCsFZL20gl8swOYd | Will Wes Anderson's Asteroid City be nominated for any Academy Awards? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-30T17:43:01 | 2024-01-24T14:39:35 | 2024-01-24T14:39:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g5pevwE4smizsfwW2Fyn | Will Twitter have a login wall on July 10? | At approximately market close, I will visit the following page in an Incognito window: twitter.com/elonmusk/
If that redirects to a login page (or full screen pop-up) the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
If others are able to check at the exact close time and provide screenshots I will accept that as pr... | 2023-06-30T17:14:15 | 2023-07-10T17:00:00 | 2023-07-10T17:03:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3gwlMJi6gE2vqICoV9ko | Will Starship’s hot-staging work on the first try? | Ie, on the next full stack test flight to use hot staging, will that hot staging be basically nominal?
If the hot staging is a direct or the primary indirect cause of flight failure, this will resolve NO
If SpaceX abandons hot staging without testing it, this resolves N/A.
UPDATE: this question has now reduced to ... | 2023-06-30T15:53:14 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-02-26T18:14:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tZhrCazWdFxaLv6SaZCw | Will the right wing party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany be above 20% in surveys at the end of the year? | This resolves yes according to the last posted results on Twitter @Wahlen_DE in 2023 for "Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl" if it's 21% or more.
They currently (30th of June) stand at 19%.
[image] | 2023-06-30T13:47:40 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:52:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BFIk3XA0avC9s9J7wmxP | Will at least one major diet soda brand remove aspartame from its product by the end of 2023? | For the purpose of this question, major diet soda products using aspartame include:
Coke Zero Sugar
Diet Coke
Sprite Zero
Pepsi Zero Sugar
Pepsi Max
Mountain Dew Zero Sugar
7 Up Free
Resolves YES if any of these products as sold in stores does not contain aspartame at the end of the year. Otherwise, resolves NO... | 2023-06-30T12:05:30 | 2023-12-31T11:59:00 | 2023-12-31T12:13:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RvniKv6mYY9stNAF4Ha7 | Will the FDA update their acceptable daily intake of aspartame by the end of August? | https://www.fda.gov/food/food-additives-petitions/aspartame-and-other-sweeteners-food
Currently, the FDA lists the ADI (acceptable daily intake) of aspartame as 50 mg/kg bw/d. If that value has changed in any direction in the "text version of safe levels of sweeteners" by the end of August, this market resolves YES. O... | 2023-06-30T12:02:40 | 2023-08-31T22:00:00 | 2023-08-31T22:12:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OOfpQLXz1KuHkeoo8GOK | Will a stage 2023 Tour de France be interrupted due to protests? | Resolves YES if during a stage at the 2023 Tour de France protesters stop more than one rider for a least one minute.
An example of this event occurred last year at stage 10: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France,_Stage_1_to_Stage_11#Stage_10
More context:
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/30/1185268439/more-th... | 2023-06-30T10:55:03 | 2023-07-23T10:44:27 | 2023-07-23T10:44:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9TlUY8I8lGnT41WPKHlh | Will Novak Djokovic win Men's Singles at Wimbledon 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-30T10:38:14 | 2023-07-17T10:12:41 | 2023-07-17T10:12:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9jhgoso50xXR5EFCCwBc | Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024? | The U.K. Conservative Party last led a national poll in December 2021; since then, the Labour Party have tied or led in every poll. Resolves to YES if a valid poll with the Conservatives leading is published and NO otherwise.
A valid poll must:
– Be a national (Great Britain) Westminster voting intention poll, not a ... | 2023-06-30T07:30:14 | 2024-11-01T12:29:26 | 2024-11-01T12:29:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JJFeTECA3dmPdhSvZm76 | Will Lex Fridman interview Yevgeny Prigozhin before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-30T06:24:38 | 2023-09-29T08:45:47 | 2023-09-29T08:45:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2WPF4uGVBT9Tr5f1yUyE | Will there be any protests or riots in Paris between August 1, 2023, and August 31, 2023? | Protest: A protest refers to a public display of dissent, typically involving a group of people gathering to express their grievances, demands, or support for a particular cause or issue. Protests can take various forms, including marches, rallies, sit-ins, strikes, or other nonviolent forms of demonstration.
Riots: R... | 2023-06-30T01:35:23 | 2023-07-30T14:59:00 | 2023-09-04T01:00:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IJR20NgPP7BliuxQ3XLq | Will trump be elected president while NOT incarcerated? | Resolves YES if multiple news outlets call the 2024 election for Trump while Trump is NOT in prison.
Resolves NO if that doesn't happen by 12-15-2024.
The flipped version:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/will-trump-be-elected-president-whi) | 2023-06-29T20:42:55 | 2024-11-07T06:43:19 | 2024-11-07T06:43:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sTUGQDblEqXDaq5kJLhy | Will Trump be elected president while incarcerated? | Resolved YES if multiple news outlets call the presidential election for Trump while trump is in prison.
Resolves NO if that doesn't happen by 12-15-2024.
The flipped version:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/will-trump-be-elected-president-whi-f7ca78f4833d) | 2023-06-29T20:36:59 | 2024-11-06T17:10:00 | 2024-11-06T17:10:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-itdFLnRot4VWPE6tFwiW | Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2025? | Classical decryptions don't count, but partially classical decryptions which use a quantum computer do.
Please post proof / articles in the comments. | 2023-06-29T16:47:20 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:39:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hrMZTKzSB4AIkGEjOsKS | Will the Harvard class of 2028 have <15% African American students? | In a historic decision, the Supreme Court severely limited, if not effectively ended, the use of affirmative action in college admissions on Thursday. By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that the admissions programs used by the University of North Carolina and Harvard College violate the Constitution’s equal protectio... | 2023-06-29T16:13:18 | 2024-09-12T23:01:53 | 2024-09-12T23:01:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qUrL0LtTeNs5xYdxhwjJ | Will there be another perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball by the end of the 2024 season? | This includes the remainder of this season and all of next season, playoffs included.
Bear in mind that there have only been 24 such occurances in the history of the game, the most recent just yesterday (6/28/23). That said, there were 6 between 2009-2012. | 2023-06-29T15:54:47 | 2024-10-31T14:25:57 | 2024-10-31T14:25:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sct7u5K3wh2M3lc6CWtb | Will Merrick Garland be impeached during the 118th Congress? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-29T12:56:47 | 2025-01-03T11:52:35 | 2025-01-03T11:52:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Owefuph5aCdvo40Obcbl | Will AirBnB colapse before 2025? | I will consider an AirBnB collapse if It goes bankrupt or if it's acquired by another company. | 2023-06-29T11:08:26 | 2024-12-31T15:00:00 | 2025-01-04T08:30:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qJ1IWNzWLTDS4ibc4UOR | Will Harvard Admit a Class that is More than 35% Asian by 2028? | If any Harvard College (undergraduate) class up to and including the class of 2032 (admitted in the fall of 2028) is more than 34.9% Asian, this market resolves yes.
Methodology: the Crimson publishes demographics of each admitted class that remains searchable, this will be for Asian + South Asian/Indian. From the cl... | 2023-06-29T10:14:47 | 2025-02-15T12:02:52 | 2025-02-15T12:02:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-abEYzzdbCEPdZEHpGxRp | Will Madonna survive 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-29T07:39:45 | 2023-12-31T20:53:10 | 2023-12-31T20:53:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-blonK9LG9gO1i0ByBdv0 | Will China win the most gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | If China is not winning more than the all others in outright, it will be the NO for most position. | 2023-06-29T05:59:37 | 2024-08-11T08:23:00 | 2024-08-11T08:23:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HZKHs5sbICIRrtBeGXMu | Will Sergei Surovikin be arrested during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-28T15:40:44 | 2023-12-31T12:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:12:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RzI9gX1GwuuHbFeeoXVY | Will Putin publicly claim Surovikin was Prigozhin’s accomplice by the end of 2023? | (https://www.wionews.com/world/leaked-intel-foils-wagners-attempt-to-capture-russias-military-leadership-report-609743) | 2023-06-28T10:49:29 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:09:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3HyDzEb4EQarTuHYq4On | Will Microsoft reach a $3 Trillion market cap at any point before the end of 2023? | https://g.co/finance/MSFT:NASDAQ | 2023-06-28T09:09:59 | 2023-12-31T20:13:41 | 2023-12-31T20:13:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y1W8WaiUaHT1157DFYoe | Will Prigozhin outlive Jimmy Carter? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-28T08:50:43 | 2023-08-27T05:55:42 | 2023-08-27T05:55:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lYAPqeNIddOeEL4C6EF3 | Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Monday 3rd July | It's now been over two weeks since almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up, but the number coming back seems to keep slowing and slowing...
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are current... | 2023-06-28T08:38:26 | 2023-07-03T05:01:38 | 2023-07-03T05:01:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hEIqI2E5YOLAuEA93DE6 | Someone has two children. One of them is a girl. Given this, is the probability that the other child is a boy 0.5? | This is a probability question, not a biology question. I'm aware that birth sex ratios are not exactly 1:1 and this question isn't about intersex idenities. The resolution will assume a 1:1 sex ration for the human population. | 2023-06-28T08:17:23 | 2023-06-29T20:59:00 | 2023-06-30T02:34:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OFtH438NHBUfyA07hOEY | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 29th June than it closed on 28th June? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 29th June than it did on Wednesday 28th June?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And here are some longer term FTSE markets:
[markets] | 2023-06-28T07:43:03 | 2023-06-29T08:30:00 | 2023-06-29T08:37:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2zLaxL6lseDDj4TfFXcy | Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election? | This question will be determined by the secondary vote results in Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia. 2021 the SPD was the party with the most votes in eastern Germany:
Thuringia
SPD 296.446
AfD 303.233
Saxony-Anhalt
SPD 305.085
AfD 235.492
Saxony
SPD 474.80... | 2023-06-28T03:23:26 | 2025-02-23T08:59:00 | 2025-02-24T05:59:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CSNobqWEv7iuKhJntAEz | Will AI wipe out humanity before Q2 2024? | If humanity is still around on April 1, 2024, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES. | 2023-06-27T21:29:56 | 2024-03-31T05:59:00 | 2024-04-01T05:24:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ybjnntS2975amHFNrEjc | Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason by the end of 2024? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-donald-trump-suffer-a-stelevat) | 2023-06-27T21:01:53 | 2024-07-13T16:29:49 | 2024-07-13T16:29:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jby0teCzrKU2pRUJYBEf | Will Destiny talk to Adam22 again by the end of August? | [markets] | 2023-06-27T20:41:01 | 2023-08-03T08:21:35 | 2023-08-03T08:21:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yDIAKeGJyi2q4jD1B9j9 | Will Bibi Netanyahu visit Beijing before he visits Washington DC? | The Prime Minister has been bragging about his invite from Xi Jinping and it has apparently made a cold DC even chillier. https://www.timesofisrael.com/strategic-mistake-netanyahu-panned-for-planning-china-visit-as-signal-to-biden/
[link preview]Resolves YES if Netanyahu visits Xi Jinping in Zhongnanhai before he mee... | 2023-06-27T16:37:52 | 2024-07-24T09:51:43 | 2024-07-24T09:51:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lM2kxTkLkeR0Aqqs14ll | Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2024? | In line with recent progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2024? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a syst... | 2023-06-27T13:19:24 | 2024-01-01T19:01:45 | 2024-01-01T19:01:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LtjbFX1AwfdljVy8vakt | Will Google lay off 5k or more people globally in Q3, 2023? | Global workforce, not just the corporate staff | 2023-06-26T23:48:55 | 2023-10-01T08:53:50 | 2023-10-01T08:53:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PE6KbwcktQfKetT0ixuc | Will another military coup be attempted in Russia in 2023 (Kamil Galeev prediction) | [tweet]https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1672966732967714821 | 2023-06-26T17:39:28 | 2023-12-31T11:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:43:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wk7aCDL0Blpjms2wtJ73 | Will actors strike by July? | On May 2, 2023, American screenwriters (unionized as WGA) began a strike which continues to this day. Their demands included issues such as better pay, better job security, and protection from AI. This strike has already led to a substantial amount of filmmaking being shut down. Now, it's being reported that actors and... | 2023-06-26T15:24:00 | 2023-07-01T20:59:00 | 2023-07-01T21:06:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DgT3wPneFl9GPjC9MUFw | Will the continental United States’ highest recorded ground temperature of 134F (57C) be broken this summer? | Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/discussions/archive_nathilo.php?adate=06/21/2023&sdate=20230621
Heat index or any of those "feels like" notes for humidity-driven states will not count. The recorded high temperature must be captured on the NOAA website and archived.
Resolves YES if any locatio... | 2023-06-26T13:58:27 | 2023-09-22T21:59:00 | 2023-09-23T04:58:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ie1WyH2VxKS4CBlORrJq | If Prigozhin dies within 24 hours of the last bet on this market, it resolves yes | i.e. imagine he dies at a certain time. At that point, I will look back at the betting history and if someone has bet on the market within the prior 24 hours, the market resolves Yes. Otherwise No. | 2023-06-26T11:26:55 | 2025-02-23T11:47:20 | 2025-02-23T11:47:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-09JcK64Ai3OpGnufPceO | Will Valve officially launch Counter-Strike 2 before August? | (https://www.counter-strike.net/cs2) | 2023-06-26T11:10:54 | 2023-07-30T22:58:52 | 2023-07-30T22:58:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8PeVif6ay7nXEU9mWnRQ | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 27th June than it closed on 26th June? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 27th June than it did on Monday 26th June?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And here are some longer term FTSE markets:
[markets] | 2023-06-26T07:30:05 | 2023-06-27T08:30:00 | 2023-06-27T08:51:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IJndAILB3UucjdRwvf6n | Shoigu and Gerasimov still in power on 24 July | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-26T02:40:18 | 2023-07-23T16:59:00 | 2023-07-30T16:19:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yaWFgNksTS07TYSXjae3 | Will Wagner group attack Ukraine from Belarus? | Czech politian Martin Dvořák claims that the coup of Prigozhin was staged in order to have plausible reason to move the Wagner group to Belarus, as further threatening Ukraine.
CNN Prima News: "I called it 'commedia finita' - it was a very well-prepared scenario of how they got to Moscow without firing a shot, right d... | 2023-06-25T11:57:40 | 2024-12-31T13:42:52 | 2024-12-31T13:42:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rQ7E3qcjeIAY58G90Ms2 | Prigozhin dies in a plane crash | Anywhere anytime for any reason. No due date | 2023-06-25T11:04:23 | 2023-08-28T12:42:38 | 2023-08-28T12:42:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h59YRZiV06X83xIBgbRi | Will the Wagner Chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin still be alive by the end of 2024? | Putin has a history of having political opponents meet less than fortunate outcomes, usually involving falling from buildings.
For this market to resolve yes, reports of the current wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin death needs to be confirmed by media (preferably several sources, and international rather than RU state ... | 2023-06-25T07:12:44 | 2023-08-28T05:25:26 | 2023-08-28T05:25:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qzcm46r7qTdLHDd2NU84 | Will the Russian invasion be over by 2025? | Specifically, of Ukraine. I'll count this if there is either news of peace being agreed to, massive withdrawl of troops, a ceasefire that doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon, etc. | 2023-06-25T03:20:23 | 2024-12-31T16:59:00 | 2025-01-04T07:09:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MGpzSlAJwySz2ia0DNO0 | Will there be another mutiny in Russia before 2024? | By a Private Military Company, a Paramilitary Organisation or even a part of the regular Military
What is a mutiny?
Wikipedia says: Mutiny is a revolt among a group of people (typically of a military, of a crew, or of a crew of pirates) to oppose, change, or overthrow an organization to which they were previously loy... | 2023-06-24T23:24:55 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:31:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5vFyB6y3ND70LkTI0Cda | Will there be another mutiny in Russia before 2025? | By a Private Military Company, a Paramilitary Organisation or even a part of the regular Military
What is a mutiny?
Wikipedia says: Mutiny is a revolt among a group of people (typically of a military, of a crew, or of a crew of pirates) to oppose, change, or overthrow an organization to which they were previously loy... | 2023-06-24T23:24:47 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-03T03:38:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BeHf1kcRLPSIgHoXTvgP | Will Putin outlive Prigozhin | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-24T21:55:43 | 2023-08-28T16:47:09 | 2023-08-28T16:47:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jv1r5jFfLfSjGKUB2Wp0 | Will Tesla Cybertruck Start Delivering to Customers in 2023? | This market will be resolved yes if it is clear that Tesla has delivered mass produced trucks to customers. If they are only producing test runs it will resolve no. Edge cases will resolve no. If they sneak it in under the wire it will resolve no. It will resolve early January | 2023-06-24T12:31:56 | 2024-01-26T12:21:39 | 2024-01-26T12:21:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ey7wuaXf2qZmUUMVQB2J | Was Prigozhin's excursion to Moscow a plot/scheme/subterfuge/hoax et. al? | Was the Kremlin in on it?
<-------- EDIT 12-08-23 -------->
From now on I will probably add comment clarifications to the description even though I believe that clarification is primarily what comments are for, people seem to not like it.
If there is material credible evidence (according to my judgement) that somet... | 2023-06-24T11:34:50 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:34:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4tvFq6wdoAeteLYP0bgP | Will Vladimir Putin be alive at noon eastern time, July 14th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-24T09:02:42 | 2023-07-14T09:00:00 | 2023-07-22T12:12:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zajR4sMmxZ5a0pGvAwJe | Will Putin and Prigozhin appear together in 2023? | Will they have a face to face meeting or be in the same room, confirmed with a photo or official report after 6/23 through eoy | 2023-06-24T07:54:45 | 2023-11-17T06:35:04 | 2023-11-17T06:35:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rd9oRWTlnQkmLx21VFXB | Will Putin flee Russia in 2023? | Resolves YES if Putin leaves Russia, under circumstances that can reasonably be considered 'fleeing' (not a normal diplomatic visit, ongoing power struggle, alternate lieader in place in Moscow etc)
Otherwise resolves NO | 2023-06-24T07:25:58 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-01-04T12:03:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HxcxfHmeoorPMSrlfbCn | Will the Kremlin be bombed by the end of June? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-24T05:44:53 | 2023-06-30T16:59:00 | 2023-07-01T10:05:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WIDyaT7tJBa8U7kiVUEI | Will Sergei Shoigu still be the Russian Minister of Defence at the end of July? | For simplicity, resolves based on Wikipedia.
Prigozhin has threatened the Russian ministry of defense, and Shoigu is at its head. Will he outlast the coup? | 2023-06-24T00:02:31 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T08:44:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6oi0C5J11bKKt6USV9W2 | Either Prighozin or Putin dies in the next week or less (Tyler Cowen prediction) | https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/06/what-game-theory-predicts.html
[link preview] | 2023-06-23T23:47:50 | 2023-07-01T14:59:00 | 2023-07-01T15:32:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uEfyXrgDamh5FXhamOJO | Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 28th? | Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow. | 2023-06-23T23:13:40 | 2023-06-28T20:59:00 | 2023-06-28T21:18:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
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